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Messages - Archimid

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1
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 24, 2020, 08:04:16 PM »
The saddest part is that all that money could have gone to save lives and the economy.  Instead, they waste it in inefficient enterprises that will now spend it in inefficient ways. If it was given to the people it would have been spent where it was needed the most.

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 23, 2020, 11:44:51 AM »
These are the reasons why nations should wrestle deaths away from C19 and not just give up the fight:

Oxford COVID-19 vaccine to begin phase II/III human trials


http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-05-22-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-begin-phase-iiiii-human-trials


Convalescent plasma treatment of severe COVID-19: A matched control study


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.20.20102236v1

Quote
. Conclusions Convalescent plasma transfusion is a potentially efficacious treatment option for patients hospitalized with COVID-19; however, these data suggest that non-intubated patients may benefit more than those requiring mechanical ventilation.


Vitamin-D and COVID-19: do deficient risk a poorer outcome?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(20)30183-2/fulltext

Quote
Martineau is pragmatic: “At best vitamin D deficiency will only be one of many factors involved in determining outcome of COVID-19, but it's a problem that could be corrected safely and cheaply; there is no downside to speak of, and good reason to think there might be a benefit”.


There is every reason to expect treatment to keep improving. Social distancing, hand hygiene, indoor masking and contact tracing should be enough to keep the numbers down while it is warm. By the time fall gets here a combination of vaccines and improved treatments might be enough to avoid a second wave altogether.

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: May 23, 2020, 10:52:32 AM »
Quote
What bothers me most is that he says that lockdowns are there to reinforce the grip of the powerful on society, but Trump is an anti-lockdown.

I think this phenomenon is explained by the following meme:



If leaders act swiftly and decisively against epidemics, nothing happens. The leaders are successful but the measures are seen as draconian and unnecessary, precisely because nothing happened. A victory against the virus is defeat at the polls.

If leaders do not act swiftly and mass casualty events happen, then they can act because people get terrified and demand action.

Trump, Musk, and other influencers are betting the sacrifice of health care workers will succeed, so they are attempting to gain "credibility" on the backs of their sacrifice. They know one day in the not too distant future this will be over, like every pandemic before this one. Regardless of the body count, THIS TOO SHALL PASS.

At that point, they will say "see, I told you so" and most people will want to believe them regardless of the body count. Those who worked the front lines will be muzzled and forgotten. Those with dead families know but mourning is weird. Mourning is a very easy process to manipulate by fake "I told you so".

Is their bet a good one? Yes it is. We will sacrifice thousands of people and many healthcare workers will die, but this will eventually be over and we will want to forget it. Trump, Musk and other influencers will be there to reap the rewards while causing so much death.

4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 23, 2020, 10:08:16 AM »
Neven, honestly your argument as unbelievable as Trump's or Elon Musk argument. You ask us to not believe the data we have, yet you present no credible evidence.

Quote
The statement "That is the absolute floor for what the IFR could be" is devoid of context or nuance, and thus largely unscientific.

I'm sorry, what?

If you take the total number of deaths of disease to date and divide it by the total number of people in a city, that is a hard lower bound on the IFR for that city.

If you claim to be speaking on the belief of science, please explain how can you possibly obtain a lower bound than that?

Of course, you are not speaking science. You are speaking conspiratorial thinking.

5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 22, 2020, 10:45:01 PM »

Or the excess mortality stories. Average mortality is X, and it was Y during the period in which people fell ill with COVID-19, hence the difference can only be explained by COVID-19, and not for instance due to panic, causing old people to have premature strokes and heart attacks, or Romanian careworkers to flee to their home country, or huge logistical mistakes to be made (because of decades of underfunding and cost-cutting) etc. What kind of childish, unscientific thinking is that?


 Anywhere there is diminished human activity, mortality will decrease.  Mortality decreases significantly. People calculating excess deaths using historic average are dead wrong because under a shutdown the number of deaths should plummet. To calculate C19 deaths from mortality data the average mortality for the date must be adjusted by the lack of activity and then the difference between that and C19 can be reasonably attributed to C19.

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 20, 2020, 07:18:43 PM »
First results from ongoing study of antibodies to covid-19 virus

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/

Quote
The analyzes for week 18 (a total of 1,104 analyzed samples) show, as expected, the largest proportion of positive antibody tests in Stockholm. A total of 7.3 percent of the blood samples collected from people in Stockholm were positive in the antibody study, which can be compared with a total of 4.2 percent in Skåne and 3.7 percent in Västra Götaland.


Given the great discipline the people of Sweden have shown, why not go all-in for a couple of weeks, bring the numbers way down, contact trace, and wait for the vaccine. The outcome is almost the same except that you may save what, 30k lives?

Herd immunity is just letting the disease win. Why let it win with such a powerful society?

7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 20, 2020, 12:26:41 AM »
I made a graph with the number of daily new cases in Luxembourg, with a 7 days average, and a signal showing if the 7 days average goes up or down.

Nice, thanks.

Quote
Now that the lockdown is eased since a few weeks (construction sites since 3 weeks, shops and schools since one week), the up/down signal is more often up than down.


If they do good contact tracing and isolation, these bursts should be contained to a minimum. Surely the possibility of a super spreading event is there, but the low prevalence and high awareness and compliance should keep any event limited to low numbers.

Quote
We stay very low compared to the peak, but I wouldn't restart air travels like planned for I think next week.

As long as there is 14-day quarantine for returning travelers, flying shouldn't be a problem.

8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 19, 2020, 02:22:26 PM »
New York Gov. Cuomo asks major sports leagues to open seasons without fans

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/18/new-york-asks-major-sports-leagues-to-open-season-without-fans-gov-cuomo-says.html


Quote
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he’s asked major league sports teams to start planning to play their seasons without fans, adding that the state is willing to help.

While the stadiums aren’t allowed to have fans, Cuomo said the games could be televised.

Cuomo said he believes whether sports franchises choose to return will depend on if they’re able to make money without fans.

9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 18, 2020, 02:57:13 PM »
To the mass murderers in charge, contact tracing is like masks and tests. These are just things that slow down the spread and the arrival of herd immunity at the cost of economic growth. If we just sacrifice the old and sick fast enough the economy can keep going like normal. What is a grandparent relative to packed shopping malls and football games? NOTHING.

The plan is and has always been the SIR model but optimizing for time instead of life. The rationale is that time is money, so the faster the infection is over the more money is made.

But can they really tell the people, "we are going to sacrifice old and people for money"? No. They can't and survive politically. Thus they will play along with the game of saving a life but sabotage testing, PPE acquisition, masking, contact tracing, and most important of all, compliance. If they can get people to walk off the plank the economy keeps moving.

This way they don't appear as the killers they are at the same time they make trillions in bailout money and most importantly accelerate the epidemic to maximum speed.

That is what we are facing.

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 17, 2020, 10:32:11 AM »
Have a link?

 They have around 25 cases a day. There are very few people carrying Sars Cov 2.

The probability of catching it anywhere in Norway is extremely low. Even in a parade, there will only be few people at most, who can create a super spreading event. Because there is extreme awareness, and abundant testing relative to their numbers, a super spreading event in this festivity should be well within contact tracing capacity. But also because there is extreme awareness, I bet people are trying to keep distance and washing hands, thus a super spreading event is less likely to happen.

Being outside in the sun makes the probability of spread even lower.

In Norway, such an event is ok under current prevalence and vigilance. I can see mask use being optional, but at this point, Norway should be getting greedy and go for 0.

In Sweden, such an event would likely increase the numbers a lot higher because the base numbers are that much higher. But likely not as high as places in the world that have no care for the disease.

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 17, 2020, 09:56:47 AM »
 
Indeed for follow-up.

And total mortality is a better comparison than lab-confirmed deaths.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441


Sweden could have been Norway. They choose not to be. Most countries that try Sweden's strategy without Sweden's low population density and population compliance will fail.

12
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 14, 2020, 08:56:57 PM »
According to Wikipedia Lebanon declared a national emergency on March 15 at around 20 new cases a day. Then according to worldometers 6 days later cases peaked at 53 cases and then dropped like every other place with a successful lockdown. By late April early May Lebanon was dealing with 4 new cases a day.

Then last week a minor outbreak happened. If it grows depends mostly on luck, contact tracing and the amount of distancing in the population. The latest wave of cases shouldn't show up in death until next week.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Lebanon


Jordan seems a bit different from the Wikipedia page. It seems they went the massive quarantine route and went into emergency mode early March. They always kept their numbers low.  Their numbers are noise. They can keep it that way if they use the power of summer, social distance, and contact trace.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Jordan

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 14, 2020, 02:10:11 PM »
France population is 65,000,000. 65% infection needed for herd immunity, if immunity was forever. That's approximately 42 million people that must be infected before the code stops running by itself.  if treatment is not improved, 0.7% of them will die. That's 294,000 people. There have been 27,000 deaths so far in France. 10x to go if the disease is not eradicated.

Stop BSing around. Mask up. Test. Social distance. Let's bring the numbers down to negligible levels save our economy and keep living.

14
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 14, 2020, 01:22:34 PM »
Maybe this?

Quote
Daily new cases of COVID-19 vs time, with a 10-day average

A 10 day average could very easily hide the peaks you mention, depending on their selection process of course.

They made need to add another category. Those that had it but opened too early.

15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 14, 2020, 01:04:36 PM »
Check this out. This site breaks down which countries are beating C19, which countries are nearly there, and which countries need to take action.

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries

16
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 14, 2020, 12:36:33 PM »
The airborne lifetime of small speech droplets and their potential importance in SARS-CoV-2 transmission

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/2006874117

Quote
Speech droplets generated by asymptomatic carriers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are increasingly considered to be a likely mode of disease transmission. Highly sensitive laser light scattering observations have revealed that loud speech can emit thousands of oral fluid droplets per second. In a closed, stagnant air environment, they disappear from the window of view with time constants in the range of 8 to 14 min, which corresponds to droplet nuclei of ca. 4 μm diameter, or 12- to 21-μm droplets prior to dehydration. These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments.

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 14, 2020, 12:20:39 PM »

I wish it was that easy. It doesn't help to eradicate the virus in one place unless you are going to isolate that place from the rest of the world indefinitely or at least until there is a vaccine.

Eradicating a virus in one location most definitely helps the people of that location for however long the low number of cases lasts.

Quote
Iceland is an island in the middle of the ocean with a population of a mid-size town. Pretty easy to isolate that. Indefinitely? I don't think so.

If the rest of the world takes the long painful way around the disease, letting the code run through, all they have to do is quarantine incoming travelers until the carnage ends in a year or two.

The virus will likely come through anyway. When it does, read below.

Quote
In South Korea the virus just keeps coming back despite the mandatory big-brother surveillance app. As Germany opens up the virus seems to come back also. Most likely we see the same in Austria and everywhere else as soon as they return to anything resembling normal life. People are not safe to go in those countries.

This is fully expected. Until a vaccine gets here or c19 goes extinct cases will keep flaring up. The difference between now and February, is that now there are more tests, more contact tracing teams are alert, The people are alert and know how to keep themselves safe. In the NH is warm

I bet you they control this flare up and any subsequent ones at least before winter gets here.

Quote
In a pandemic you have only bad options. I know that the Americans have somehow managed to turn even a viral pandemic into a mindless issue of partisan identity politics. But there is no choice between health or money. There will be disease and death and there will be economic damage.

People that live in places with very low C19 prevalence can go anywhere with an extremely low possibility of getting infected. The ones who take small extra measures like hand washing and avoiding crowded places will very likely not get infected. The few that throw caution to the wind will serve as a warning for others.

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 14, 2020, 12:09:33 AM »
Quote
The virus is everywhere.

It is not everywhere in Iceland. It is not everywhere in South Korea. It is not everywhere in New Zealand. It is not everywhere in Austria. It is not everywhere in Germany.

Those places closed down early and hit the virus hard. They are virtually inflectionless now. Any new string of cases that emerges, they catch them fast and cut off the chains of infection with quarantines.

Most people living in the places I mentioned are safe everywhere they go. They won.

Quote
It is going to keep coming back

Of course it will, but as long as you have testing, contact tracing and isolation, the chains of infection will not lead to an all out outbreak. This effort can be sustained for decades or until a vaccine gets here.

19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 13, 2020, 11:32:35 PM »

For a population of 6.66 million, a crude estimate of IFR using anomaly deaths during the first wave would be 12700/752806 = 1.7% which seems a bit high... Using the official COVID-19 fatalities, the IFR is around 1.1%, but the official number is not believable.

Also, we are pretty far from herd immunity.

Herd immunity is most certainly not the way to go. Eradication is.

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: May 13, 2020, 11:25:10 PM »
My apologies gerontocrat. This too shall pass.

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: May 13, 2020, 10:03:13 PM »
Thanks for the history Yuha. How Malaria connects to C19?

C19 is an opportunistic disease that targets older people or people with heart and pulmonary preconditions.

Severe malaria and some anti-malarial medications might lead to permanent "scars" in the lungs and heart that C19 might exploit. By scars, I simply mean changes at the cellular and molecular level product of the inflammation and healing process.

It seems to me that someone that "almost died" of Malaria might be susceptible to C19.

This is of course speculation, but it is informed. It might be that the inflammation damage caused by Malaria doe not make C19 worse. But it seems like a poor bet to find out by getting infected.

That's the scientific explanation.  But I think there is more than just a possible predisposition. I find that things tend to repeat. In computers, cache memory is used because references tend to be local. What happened before tends to happen again. The same thing happens in life.


22
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 13, 2020, 09:39:10 PM »

I still have not seen much research on the efficacy of most homemade masks, frankly.

Then you should head over to the Masks thread. Masks work, when people wear them correctly. Many materials have a known failure rate. Most contamination comes from non-compliance. Non-compliance is a real problem that may make masks not work. Any replies to this I'll answer over at the masks thread.

23
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: May 13, 2020, 06:26:51 AM »
IMHO Friv is the only one using the correct language for what we are seeing.

Curse words are tools that should convey very deep and powerful emotions. They should be used when the situation merits them. At the same time, people frowning upon curse words is what gives curse words their power.

Nanning is right, but Friv is even more right.

24
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: May 12, 2020, 08:26:43 PM »
Quote
If he were to stay away, or even stay in his office, after all he has said and fought for... the universe would implode.

The number one reason infection control fails is non-compliance. People do not follow the safe parameters and bad stuff happens. C19 does not care if he has a reason to expose himself. He can't get this.

He can be on the floor safely if wears a properly fitted N95 mask the whole time. But in general, why tempt destiny?
 
Quote
Musk knows how things progressed in Giga Shanghai:  no outbreaks, no deaths. 

Givent the low prevalence of c19 in Shanghai, it might be that their defenses were never tested.

The way things are looking in California, Fremont and all other Tesla facilities will be tested. An acceptable test would be that as California cases go up, employees will come up positive and maybe pass it to coworkers, but the outbreak is caught early and it stays small.

If a large outbreak happens or key personnel are lost (Elon, Franz, Karpathy) then tesla fails.

Quote
P.S.:  An actuary would likely rate his activities around the very tall rockets being built at the Boca Chica, Texas SpaceX Starship factory as more risky than being on the floor in Fremont amongst a limited, protected staff

That depends. Was he properly fitted for an N95 mask and can he use it correctly? Is he wearing goggles? Will his clothes be disinfected before he can touch them an stick a finger in his nose? If yes, then he is quite safe.

If he is just showing off his "bravery" to his employees and how this virus does not need to be feared, then he is most definitely at high risk... because of non-complience.

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: May 12, 2020, 06:16:46 PM »
Quote
I will be on the line personally helping wherever I can

Again. This is the opposite of what he must do. He is 48, overweight, highly stressed and with a history of malaria. He has an elder mother of 72 years old. He has members of the board who are 80+.

He is not only more susceptible to get infected than younger people, he is also at risk of developing complications.

He is my opinion one of the greatest engineers of all time. He is a good person. He is the most dedicated leader a company of people could hope. But he thinks he is above this. He is not.

What I want to hear is that elder employees will work from home, and employees with elder dependants will be offered protection. This includes protecting himself as the asset to all mankind that he is. He has no right to endanger himself like this.

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: May 12, 2020, 07:41:19 AM »
Given Elon's past statements about the epidemic, he is clueless about this epidemic. I doubt is lack of knowledge. I think his emotions got to him, together with the need to please the tyrant.  As a result, he is acting irrationally.

 While his language is irrational, I don't trust him. I think Tesla will not be strict enough to avoid an outbreak. People will lose their life. With just a bit of bad luck or a missed chain of infections, Tesla may be the to California what that "sect" was to South Korea.

Elon's language and rhetoric incites recklessness, not the discipline required to avoid an invisible particle. Hopefully, that language has no effect on the vigilance in Fremont.

However, I agree that they should open if Tesla thinks they can run the factory in a sterile way to C19. I think they can but only with discipline and vigilance.

27
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 11, 2020, 11:53:17 PM »
10% with antibodies in London, national average 4%

So around 0.6% IFR in London.

But that 10% antibody prevalence. wow. Such a long way to go. At this point making it extinct is still a much better option than seeing it through.

Any updates on Sweden's antibody prevalence?

28
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 11, 2020, 07:27:15 PM »

I am not sure about this very much quoted but experimentally not measured and substantiated summer reduction effect.

Experimentally, we know how SARS-CoV-2 behaves in ideal laboratory conditions. This is different than the environment, but it is a starting point.  At 4C this virus is basically stable. At Room temperature, it can easily last 14 days. AT 37C it is gone within a day. At 56C is gone in minutes.
 
From a perfectly controlled environment of a lab to the chaos of the environment there is a long way, but we know that this virus is sensitive to temperature.

See attachment. From https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036673v2

Quote
The main argument as I understand it is that as people spend less time indoors and more outdoors, the virus has a harder time, because the wind "blows it away" and UV destroys it, so transfer of the virus is reduced (hopefully).

I think that is one of the possible arguments and there are many. Vitamin D, society, UV exposure, wind, temperature, humidity they all likely have a role to play in the ultimate R value.

I think the best argument that C19 decreases in infectiveness during summer comes from the observation that typical coronavirus colds are winter or wet weather diseases. Based on that observation one hopes this goes away too. I think the seasonality is at least in part to temperatures, but there are many other factors.

29
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: May 11, 2020, 12:44:24 PM »

Musk is not the man to say "yeah right, you can stick it to me and I'll just accept it".


I wish it was that. But it isn't. He is actually as clueless about this as any physicist would be performing brain surgery.

Proof:

Mar 25 2020

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1242893395338674176

Quote
C19 testing in the US over the past week has grown much faster than C19 positive cases. I think we may have passed the inflection point for US cases (excluding NY) already.

At that point in time, there were around 13k new cases a day. Cases went on to almost triple even after a national shutdown was implemented.

To me, this shows lack of awareness about the real threat. The lack of awareness makes him take action that is disconnected from reality while hedging his bets with aloof philanthropy.

When he shows a good logical, science-based argument as to why we should not take precautions against this disease, I will believe him. For now, because of his incendiary rhetoric in the opposite side of truth, I have to assume he panicked.

30
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 11, 2020, 12:14:40 PM »
If that is further reduced to 0,5-0,7 then the summer would be problem-free

I think it is correct to think that summer will lower the R by a certain amount but it is a huge stretch to call it problem-free.

That R reduction will vary just like the natural R varies.

Places that were warm in spring will likely get limited R reduction because most infections were already occurring indoors. Places with very cold spring and warm summer will get the highest reduction as outdoors infections drop.

Similarly, places like NY, where most infections were indoors, may see only a small reduction. Places with more open spaces may see a larger reduction.

I think one of the most important factors for summer reduction will be the prevalence of the virus. Places with high prevalence should only see a small reduction. Places that are at very low prevalence may start hitting 0 new cases more frequently and make it locally extinct.

From 0 cases, the measures needed to stop a second wave are mostly extreme vigilance. Masking would not be necessary. Contact tracing should be ready to trace and isolate.

In places that have many cases, things are more difficult.


And then, of course, there is the South Hemisphere's winter. I'm very afraid for the people of South America, many of them are already going through waves of C19. As winter arrives R should increase. We need to prevent South American countries from doing what the US is doing now, if they re-open. Seed the whole world with C19.

31
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 10, 2020, 12:46:40 AM »
Performance Characteristics of the Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG Assay and Seroprevalence in Boise, Idaho

https://jcm.asm.org/content/early/2020/05/07/JCM.00941-20

Quote
We tested 1,020 serum specimens collected prior to SARS-CoV-2 circulation in the United States and found one false positive, indicating a specificity of 99.90%. We tested 125 patients who tested RT-PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2 for which 689 excess serum specimens were available and found sensitivity reached 100% at day 17 after symptom onset and day 13 after PCR positivity. Alternative index value thresholds for positivity resulted in 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity in this cohort. We tested 4,856 individuals from Boise, Idaho collected over one week in April 2020 as part of the Crush the Curve initiative and detected 87 positives for a positivity rate of 1.79%.

My naive calculation using the state population of Idaho as 1,787,065 and extrapolating the rate detected in the capital, 1.79%, to the state population to obtain 31,988 people with antibodies. World-o-meter has 67 fatalities, for a simple IFR of 0.2%. The sample was self-selected so it is a likely overestimation. They have 2,205 total cases detected by molecular testing. They missed most cases. The fatality count is very likely a gross underestimation.


32
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: May 09, 2020, 11:47:41 PM »
NeilT, Elon is not getting a pass from me on this one.

His factories are using extreme caution and measure, but his rhetoric incites people to abandon caution and get infected.  IF he was calling for logical measures like the one he has established at his factories he would be getting full support from everyone. But he is calling to throw caution out of the window, so everyone will overreact even more to counteract his "I am Dumb" rhetoric.

If his intention is to restart the economy earlier, he is wrong. He is causing the delays he wants to avoid.

If that is not his intention, then his plan is to join Trump in the new Nazi USA and depend on Trump's good graces for his future dreams. Such a sad ending for a brilliant career.


33
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 09, 2020, 08:30:48 PM »
What are you going about IFR’s?  C19 unleashed a wave of death upon the world regardless of what the IFR turns out to be. The IFR only tells the potential final death toll and how long this lasts unopposed. The disruption potential is proven to be there regardless of IFR.

If the lockdowns that we’re imposed we’re not imposed when they were we would be looking at much worse numbers. The death tolls multiple times higher. The economic harm would still happen together with chaos.

That possibility is for chaos and death is still very possible. Wanton reopening will likely lead to local outbreaks.

34
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 09, 2020, 03:12:27 PM »
Quote
We increase compliance.

Politicians believe that compliance needs to be increased through fear.

Fear of losing a loved one or your own life is a justified fear. Justified fears offer protection.

If you are over 50 you should fear C19. If you love someone who is over 50, you should fear C19.

That fear will heighten your senses and emotions and give you a better-fighting chance. Once you fear the disease you will take the necessary precautions to avoid it. If you don't fear it, why take burdensome measures to avoid it?

Fear of real danger offers protection. Lack of fear of real danger leads to harm. Lack of fear of real danger is a version of panic. Don't Panic.

35
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 09, 2020, 01:39:20 PM »
The long way around this is exactly what Trump and Bolsonairo are doing. Denying the risk, downplaying the measures, refusing to mask. This maximizes NON-COMPLIANCE.

Once you maximize non-compliance of the measures that are known to work, you guarantee some chains of infection keep running.

The shortest way around this is maximizing compliance.

 Theoretically, 100% compliance with the shutdown ends this in less than 30 days. Also theoretically, if everyone did perfect mask-wearing, the epidemic ends in less than 30 days.

But from theory to practice, there is an extremely long way. 100% compliance with sterile techniques is impossible in practice. So what do we do? Do we give up on compliance or do we find ways to increase compliance?

The answer would have been obvious before idiocracy was forced upon us by propagandists.

 We increase compliance. We just don't give up and let this code run on the world. We teach as many people as we can how to comply with techniques that will make them safe. We hope that they follow the advice. We follow the best techniques we can ourselves.

36
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 08, 2020, 10:50:38 PM »
NYC deaths should be near zero in a week. We are already almost there.

May 8: Deaths in New York City ~500/day
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/23/upshot/five-ways-to-monitor-coronavirus-outbreak-us.html
This is blatantly fake news. Cuomo's update has New York STATE's total deaths today at just over 200. The New York Times is literally now just entirely fake news.

Today's ACTUAL state-wide #s:
Deaths 216

The day isn't over yet. Yesterday it was 521. The day before yesterday 499, then 125,291,512.

Quote
NYC deaths should be near zero in a week. We are already almost there.

Terrible prediction, like your ice age prediction.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: May 08, 2020, 05:08:16 AM »
It sounds like a party, but it is not. Manufacturers in California must do what Tesla did in GigaChina.

It can be done if it is done with the seriousness it deserves, but if they go stupid* they end up in a bigger mess than before.

*No mask, No social distancing, No copious handwashing, crowded unventilated rooms.

38
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 07, 2020, 09:44:02 PM »
Covid-19 alert level 2 details: What you need to know

New Zeland is doing a great job. I hope they keep in mind that winter is coming, and with it, the outside becomes a breeding ground for C19.  At this moment the NH has the advantage of summer.  The SH has the disadvantage of winter.

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: May 07, 2020, 04:27:02 PM »
California shutdown early but also, california relaxed too early.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/

That is sad. The problem for California will be prolonged even when they shutdown early.

40
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 07, 2020, 02:27:31 PM »
That's great news kassy. I think this is assumed by most models already, but it is extremely nice to have confirmation. There is strong immunity that lasts at least a few months.

According to research posted upthread, immunity to typical Coronavirus can last for a year,  more in some cases. When reinfection happens it produces milder symptoms.

For herd immunity calculations what we need to know is how long the immunity to C19 lasts. At that point people that went from susceptible to immune go back to susceptible, increasing infectivity rate.

41
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 07, 2020, 12:31:02 AM »
The lockdowns are an emergency temporary measure. We should make the most out of them while they last. By making the most out of them I mean reducing the number of new cases to the lowest number possible. But lockdowns will not work forever, many are already breaking down.

Places that made the most out of their lockdown start from almost 0 new cases every day. Places that didn't shut down hard enough start from a high number of cases every day.

Places with a low number of new cases and with contact tracing capabilities should open everything but ask businesses and services to take precautions. Masking, avoiding crowded places, constant surface wiping, and social distancing should remain in place. Numbers of cases should go down to one every few days if any at all. Employers that can't provide PPE should be liable in both criminal and civil courts.

Even then, it is likely that epidemics break out in many places. Contact tracing must be right on top of the breakouts with local quarantines. This way life can resume.

Places who wasted their lockdowns are in trouble. As they relax rules, cases will go up. They are likely to see many local outbreaks and economic disruptions for the next year or two. Their fatality count will be high for many more months.

42
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 06, 2020, 11:30:05 PM »
Here's an interesting video in English with Dr Hendrik Streeck, who is accused by some of falsifying data and emplyoing a PR firm to disseminate lies for political reasons. His study should be published soon.

We talked about this a month a go here:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg259000.html#msg259000


Neven, where do you stand? what do you suggest we do?

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: May 06, 2020, 09:59:18 PM »
Disagree.  Contaminated surfaces are a major route of transmission, not only for Covid, but other respiratory viruses, GI viruses, MRSA and ringworm.  This is why gym etiquette demands exercise equipment be wiped down between uses.

Yes, but in a gym, one would expect each piece of equipment to be wiped before anyone else touches it. A basketball will be touched by many between each wipe, thus even if it is sterile, if the players do not disinfect their hands the chains of infections will not be broken.

But honestly, even if it is just a ritual, it is the right mentality. The more people are aware of the danger the easier it is to avoid it.  Every little bit counts.

44
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 06, 2020, 04:02:39 PM »
Trump is certainly downplaying the disease, together with the alt-right. I haven't seen obvious trumpets overplay the disease other than when they are trying to blame China for the US failures.


Blumenkraft, do you care to give us examples of known rightwingers overplaying the disease?

Other than exaggerating the scientific position to make them look ridiculous and mislead those who they can mislead, I have not seen right-wingers fear monger about this.

Not that they won't do it if they think it beneficial. They do not care about the truth.

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: May 06, 2020, 03:40:42 PM »
On basketball sterile techniques:


The choice to play basketball is where the risk assessment begins. Each society must ask itself, is a basketball tournament worth the risk?

Given the low prevalence of C19 in Austria, the answer in Austria may be yes, depending on their tracing capacity.  In NYC or Rio de Janeiro, the answer is very likely no.


But even in Austria, there is a small chance for outbreaks to start. So how do you reduce the probability of an outbreak starting in a basketball game? The measures must satisfy the following questions:

 What is the effectiveness of the measure?
 What is the cost of the measure?
 What are the side effects of the measures?


For example:
The primary measure should be that everyone in the tournament is aware of the epidemic. If any family member is sick, they should all self-quarantine and go get tested.

Effectiveness of self-quarantine? Maximal
Cost? high
Side effect? moderate.


Quote
They say that balls need to be disinfected before and after training, and even in between, as much as possible (they advise after every 100 dribbles).

I admit this seems excessive but the action of continually disinfecting the ball might lower the probability of infection by very few points, but the act may be a worthy reminder of the invisible threat and the importance of self-isolation and testing. I see the very little cost to disinfecting the ball as often as possible unless there is a shortage of alcohol and no side effects.

Effectiveness of wiping the ball? Minimal except for high awareness effects.
Cost? Minimal
Side effect? Minimal

Quote
If people are dunking, the ring has to be disinfected as well!

Effectiveness of wiping the rim? minimal.
Cost? Minimal.
Side effects? Minimal

Quote
And no high fives!


This should be a CARDINAL rule, yet you are poking fun at it. The palm of the hand is the dirtiest of places other than the mouth. No high fives is a brilliant and obvious rule.

Effectiveness of no high fives? high

Cost of no high five? None

Side effects of no high five? A bit of awkwardness until you figure out a way to celebrate without touching the hands.


In the search of eliminating this threat as quickly as possible, many actions will be taken that will be worthless. Some even counterproductive. But as long as the awareness is there and there's unity of purpose the epidemic can be controlled.


To be honest basketball tournaments seem like the wrong thing to do for now.

46
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 06, 2020, 10:13:00 AM »
Must. Find. Something. That. Affects. The. Children. Fear. And. Guilt. Fear. And. Guilt.

The fear is only in your mind. We've always known there was a very small number of cases of children who can be in danger of C19. This gives us a sample of how it may look like. Information like this, however scary, may help inform clinicians who will start seeing cases more frequently in places that let the diseases progress to the level the UK did.

This is need to know information.

However, it is important that caveats are made that this is very rare. It will only become more common in places that let it run wild and only to clinicians.

Because masks are scary and uncomfortable, some countries will let some children bear this. They are not "first world".

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: May 05, 2020, 06:55:40 PM »
Quote
Despite the fact that what we are dealing with is a virus that, yes, is clearly deadly to the old and those with medical conditions, but that is just as clearly not a deadly threat to the majority of the human species, people are cowering inside their homes as if the Zombie Apocalpyse had finally begun. Many appear to believe that this virus is some sort of Alien-Terrorist Death Flu (or weaponized Virus of Mass Destruction) that will kill you the second you breathe it in.


Most rational people that are calling for extreme caution clearly state the risk is around 1%, skewed for age. 

The above paragraph is pure projection. The author feels great fear about what is being said, so much so that when a scientist says 1% (C19) the author understands "Alien-Terrorist Death Flu Zombie Apocalpyse".


To the author, I would advise to try and understand and explain the following.

Ebola kills up to 90% of its victims. Covid 19 kills 1% of its victims.

Last decade Ebola killed less than 50k people. C19 has killed 250k in a few months.

So what is more dangerous, Ebola or C19?

48
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 05, 2020, 02:39:44 PM »
Outside without masks?

Is it warm? Is it sunny? Is the air moving? Are you at least 2m apart from other people at all times?

If the answer is yes to all, then sure, don’t wear masks. But I would advise to double your hand washing.

Walking where other people are running? I would wear a mask. People running will be exchanging a lot of air. If they are carriers they may have a higher than average chance for passing it.


49
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 04, 2020, 11:48:06 PM »
As El Cid says, for those that are young and healthy, of which I am both, the mortality rate is negligible.

That's why I hoped you were young. If you are young you are in negligible danger. If you are older than around 50, 1% is an underestimate.

 However, old or young, you took a stroll in one of the cities with the highest C19 prevalence in the world. Not a biggie, if you stayed outside, kept your distance, masked and wash hands.

But you say you didn't mask even when you interacted with others by getting a latte. If you got it you won't know until a few days after you become infective to others, if you get symptoms at all. During that time you may inadvertently infect others, who may not be young and healthy.

The probability you do this is highly diminished if you mask when interacting with others.

All I ask is that you mask when interacting with others, particularly elders.

50
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 04, 2020, 01:00:33 PM »
Today I walked from Battery Park all the way to 14th Street, and back down. 6.62 miles. I got two iced coffees. I wore my mask around my neck the entire time.

The % of people wearing masks is down dramatically. Many who had them on also had them around their necks.

Life is returning to normal in NYC, as it should.

<Removed music video, kassy>

On behalf of the people that I love that lives in NY, thank you* for volunteering for the herd immunity trials. About 1% will not survive but their sacrifice will be useful for at least a few months. I hope you are young.

* That "thank you" applies only if you assume you are infected and wear a mask as a courtesy to other people you may interact with for 14 days from initial exposure.

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