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Messages - johnm33

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The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: December 13, 2019, 07:22:11 PM »
Labour promised their northern 'tribal' vote more of the same, well they've had that for over a generation and they're not mad or stupid enough to think more of the same is going to stop the decline in their prosperity or reduce the rate of moral decay around them. So this I guess is just a kick in the nuts for the incumbents. A couple of decent reads to embellish silkmans words, an analysis which seems even handed to me, and some thoughts from Craig Murray always worth reading.

Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 10, 2019, 05:21:59 PM »
Lightning strikes  change the time to the 8th and apply, suggests when not to visit.

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: December 01, 2019, 02:25:48 PM »
A little confirmation bias here conditions would arise where miscegenation was the optimal choice.
" We present two independent models that capture the internal dynamics of Neanderthal populations―the models thus ignore, among other things, competitive interactions with AMHs―and that suggest that the disappearance of Neanderthals might have resided in the small size of their population(s) alone. Accordingly, our study substantiates the suggestion, made in passing by French [42], that “it may simply be the case that Neanderthal populations declined below their minimum viable population threshold”."

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: November 27, 2019, 11:31:33 PM »
Well thats a keeper, so much to see, i can't express how much i appreciate your work here thank you.

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: November 27, 2019, 11:14:42 PM »
Hunter gatherers tend to breastfeed on demand, that generally leads to children being born about 4 years apart, so 25% is close to the max rate.
Isolated communities of all types suffer increasing loss of fertility and congenital defects from excess consanquinity, island girls deal with this by the warm reception given to passing sailors, peasants/serfs by some type of try before you buy, aristocracies by heir, spare then miscellany. I imagine when isolated groups of hominids met they happily miscegenated, some hybrids prospering some not, but since H.Sap. was/is the only one who was hard wired for grammatical language once, any hominid group had been penetrated by H.Sap. the word got passed on.  ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 25, 2019, 11:35:46 AM »
I was wondering about the effect of bathymetry on melt so looking at the sss anim. at hycom and the similarity the spreading lower salinity has to the shape of Lomonosov, 1km below and 10s of Kms away. Then noticed that one of the livelier areas is more or less where P.S. is

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 23, 2019, 10:37:52 PM »
"Up to the point where the current starts sinking, it is most definitely flowing along the surface. And I think I did say something about the continental slope and the current having sunk enough to actually follow that slope. But not before it sinks!"
I've said elsewhere that I've convinced myself that current are the residuals of tidal movements. Here there's a tidal surge flowing north between Iceland and the Hebrides it passes in the west over a shelf about 500m deep and east of the Faroes over a shelf about 1500m deep, that is how deep the current could be, but flowing south over the same shelves are some Arctic waters that have been led by bathymetry away from Denmark strait where the bulk of Arctic waters flow south, but on the western side of the mid atlantic ridge. My guess would be that the inflow here exceeds the outflow so allow maybe max depth of 800m for the northbound current. Some part of it diverts around the Voring plateau which lies below 1000m suggesting it's saline enough to drop below 800m. It's moving north and east so outpacing the Earths rotation and has to shed about 15mph. per deg. as it moves north, that kinetic energy adds to the temp. of the current. The deeper parts of the currents are never going to make the climb, in competition with the top 500m of flow, onto the Barents shelf and are forced almost due north towards SV. and again become warmer. Some fraction also makes it onto the shelf as it traverses the slope the rest piles up near the persistent anomoly before it moves either around SV to head east, across the north Greenland shelf to Nares/CAA or flows south joining the Arctic waters. Each of the flows is variable according to tidal forcings and mslps even as far as Bering. 
Someone [?] linked to a paper that found evidence that the Arctic ice cap once rested on Lomonosov, so 1km+ thick, I suspect that this was coincident with the breakdown in the thermohaline circulation in the north Atlantic. If the ice was 1km in the central arctic then it's not a stretch to think that Barents too was icebound and that tidally driven currents have very slowly Atlantified the Norwegian, Greenland and now Barents seas. The tides remain consistent but the currents are slowly increasing and penetrating ever further so very slowly then all at once seems about right.
Tangential speed
Given their rounded shape both the Voring plateau and the Barents shelf north of Norway could be ancient landslides?

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 21, 2019, 12:17:03 PM »
" We all know that the warm currents flowing northwards are surface currents."
This is where we differ, in the image below the current splits where it meets the Barents shelf close to Norway, the shelf contour here is 500m implying that that acts as a barrier suggesting the current is below that level, and i suspect flowing across the contours at much greater depths, it may even be forced up by denser waters when it rounds SV. and heads towards SZ and Laptev, thus washing up and down the shelf as it moves east still driven by the inertia it aquired further south.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 20, 2019, 10:50:36 PM »
binntho, I think where I most differ with you is that you give the impression your only considering surface and near surface waters. For me there is no resident water in the Norwegian sea, it's constantly being renewed by 'gulf stream/nad' waters from further south, so that water occupies the whole depth. Moving north/east it splits into energetic fractions the densest flowing north along the steep contours of the Barents shelf towards and around Svalbard then east along the shelfs contours and here the turbulence it creates in the waters coming off the shelf causes weak ice to melt. The energetic potential of the lightest fraction [recently at 60degN, @500mph surface speed now 68degN, @370mph] rounding Norway loses some of it's kinetic energy to heat but never enough to allow it to return by the same route, thus there's a constant but variable flow off the shelf into Nansen.
 Enough images here

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 14, 2019, 09:48:58 AM »

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: November 14, 2019, 09:27:22 AM »
maybe switch to brr?

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: November 08, 2019, 11:34:54 AM »
The withdrawal agreement is an agreement, on our part, to remain subject to the EU, it's parliament and bureaucracy until such time as a trade deal is concluded. We'll accept all new laws and charges without any say in what they might be, already our armed forces have been handed over to be controlled by Brussels, and they have contingency plans to send up to 35,000 EU troops to Syria. Philip Hammond in anticipation of his coming lucrative appointments to various boards has resigned his [leave] seat having landed us with up to 500bn euros liabilities for the EIB faied loans book, loans yet to be parcelled out, with no upside. With a similar liability in Euros for the ECB when the EU banking sector implodes, three French banks are facing ruin as is Deutsche bank so not long to wait.
Most people signed up for the EU as an open trading area with free movement, not to become a minor province in a western version of the USSR or a rust belt state in a European USAE, which seems like the plan,
Increasingly the EU is becoming a fascist state, in the older sense of that word, meaning that state and corporate power are inseperable and the states function is to create a compliant populace for corporate exploitation, rather than act as a mediator in the conflicts of interest.
Having raised the issue of leaving the Eurocrats must now prepare to administer the same treatment that Greece got, to discourage the others,
from the slog
"I think I may have been among the first internet commentators on EU gangsterism to run a piece about Tim Geithner saying to an intimate, after his return from the EU Wroclaw Summit of September 2011, “Those bastards in the EC, they are going to beat Greece to a pulp with a f**king baseball bat”. I was told of the exchange by an old contact – a New York based institutional lawyer – and went with it because the person had never been wrong about anything like that….and the record still stands.

In late 2014, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reported a confirmation of the story after reading Geithner’s memoirs. Tim was quoted as follows:

“…..the Europeans came into that meeting basically saying: ‘We’re going to teach the Greeks a lesson. They are really terrible. They lied to us. They suck and they were profligate and took advantage of the whole basic thing and we’re going to crush them.”

Bear in mind that yes the Greeks were running a deficit above the agreed limit but nothing like as large as Frances now 35% which is more than an order of magnitude above that threshold, and the options were to let Frances banks fail or reduce Greece to penury. So yes if we stay they'll batter us if we leave it'll be with added spite and venom if we accept the withdrawal agreement it'll be made easy, but that seems to be what 'our' establishment and professional political class want[?]. A clean break would be better for both.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 05, 2019, 03:21:58 PM »
We're clearly inside a black hole watching the energetic em storm being brought to order by integration of all it's information and the shock into conciousness that the phase shift to singularity caused. Give it another week, in outside time, and it'll all start to make sense. Though from here we should be able to see the axis of rotation if not the backs of our heads.

The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: October 31, 2019, 02:52:39 PM »
"At home in all the major powers, growing populism, nativism, and jingoism come to the fore, militating against saving the world."
At home in all our vassal states, a yearning for some democracy, putting national interests before our corporations interests, active resistance to the all pervading propaganda, militating against globalist dictats. Sorted.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: October 29, 2019, 11:10:13 AM »
Looking poleward it seems there's tidal induced flows penetrating into Nansen/Amundsen basins via St. Anna trough, forcing surface melting south of the pole around the 90E M. and I'm guessing the eastward flow and bathymetry generates the more saline surfacing water around 140-135E 85N, and the semicircle of saline water it unites with. I suspect there's a certain amount of internal wave formation going on in the basins as a consequence and that when the harmonics are just right there's a reverse gradient formed north of Greenland that facilitates the wind driven departure of it's resident ice. When that wave complex moves back into the deep it'll draw more Atlantic water in.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2019, 10:48:16 PM »
tzu "comments"
My 2c, the slowing of the Gulf stream/N.Atlantic drift imho is caused by mixing with arctic waters which are inert and hold fast to the American mainland, that inertia is reflected in the size of the cold blob which is the G.S./Arctic water mixed to latitudinal equilibrium. The cold blob forces the G.S. south, it's relative inertia means it spends more time further south, travels further, gets warmer, more saline and arrives later. The loss of ice cover in Barentz has allowed more Atlantic water to force it's way into the Arctic over that shelf, in turn this has led to an [unconfirmed] steady increase in flow at depth though Fram. In turn this acts a little like a flywheel and if more water is leaving here more must flow in, according to 'current' circumstances. Generally this means increased inflow from the Atlantic either side of Svalbard or from the Pacific influenced by tides and barometric pressure, so extremely variable on any day. Every tidal cycle can add a little more power to the 'flywheel', and given the activity at Humbolt it seems something similar is evolving in Nares.

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: October 19, 2019, 03:36:45 PM »
This speaks for itself

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

This is ‘May Mk2’ – the EU’s latest colonisation treaty for the UK

Prepared by Brexit Facts4EU.Org with advice from a Brussels-based barrister

Legend: ‘WA’ = Withdrawal Agreement, ‘PD’ = Political Declaration

1. Parliament will not be sovereign - UK still to be governed by existing and new laws of the ECJ – a foreign court – and with no say over these laws. [WA articles 4, 87, 89 and 127, PD para 131]

2. Demands payment of a sum to be decided by the EU - Minimum £39 billion but this is likely to increase and the EU decides the final sum. This must be paid BEFORE any trade deal is agreed. [WA articles 138-144, and 152-155]

3. No trade deal with EU – Not included as this is just a divorce treaty. Any EU trade deal must ensure “a level playing field for open and fair competition” and “deep regulatory and customs cooperation”. This will make it difficult for the UK to reduce non-tariff barriers in trade deals with USA, Australia, China, etc. [PD paras 17 & 21]

4. Prevents independent tax policy - Political Declaration still obliges UK to adopt a future relationship which will impose EU State Aid rules and “relevant tax matters” on the UK. EU specifically intends to curb UK’s ability to have “harmful tax practices”. Withdrawal Treaty also applies EU law to UK during transition period - allowing EU to sue UK, including infringement proceedings for as yet unidentified breaches of State Aid rules and billions in VAT on commodity derivative transactions dating back to 1970s. [PD para 77, WA articles 86, 93, 127].

5. Restricts independent foreign policy - UK to be bound by international agreements concluded by the EU despite having no influence in their negotiation during the transition period and must “refrain, during the transition period, from any action... which is likely to be prejudicial” to the interests of the EU. [Articles 129(3) and (6)].

6. Prevents independent military action – UK permanently stopped from taking “any action likely to conflict with or impede” EU’s foreign policies. Critical parts of section on foreign policy and security are not reciprocal, eg future relationship will not “prejudice the decision-making autonomy of the EU” but no such language for UK – only permitted to “maintain the right to determine how [to respond] to any invitation to participate in operations or missions”. Also, parties “agree to consider” security collaboration in European Defence Agency, European Defence Fund, and PESCO “to the extent possible under [EU law]” which is prescriptive (not permissive) obligation. Despite paying for European Defence Agency during transition, British troops in EU battlegroups will not be led by British staff officers. [WA articles 129(6-7) and 156-157, PD paras 99, 102(c)]

7. Controls UK fishing – Common Fisheries Policy continues in UK waters during transition (which can be extended) but UK will have no say in implementation or enforcement. After transition, Political Declaration requires “cooperation on... regulation of fisheries, in a non-discriminatory manner” - code for continuing current arrangements for EU access to UK waters. Any trade deal to “ensure service providers and investors are treated in a non-discriminatory manner, including with regard to establishment” - prevents UK protecting quotas from EU purchase. [PD paras 29 and 72]

8. Replaces one EU Commission with another - New body established with “powers equivalent to those of the European Commission”. UK must accept exclusive jurisdiction of Arbitration Panel and judgments of ECJ. Grants EU officials criminal immunity and exemption from UK tax. Imposes gagging order on UK which must keep all EU information confidential but EU can use UK information as it sees fit. [WA articles 74, 101, 104-5, 106-116, 159, 168, 174]

9. Leaves UK with €500bn liabilities from EU Investment Bank but no profits - No rights to past and future profits made from UK investment in EIB, no rights to UK share of assets of EIB, yet UK remaining liable for risk of up to €500bn of guarantees. UK must let EU bid for UK public projects at least during transition. [WA articles 34, 75-78, 127, 143, 147, 150].

10. EU colonisation - makes UK bystander in laws that govern it - UK permitted to send civil servant to Brussels to observe EU passing laws designed to disadvantage UK economy during transition which might last many years. EU could regulate London’s huge foreign exchange markets, impose financial transaction tax that would be collected at UK expense by HMRC but sent to foreign governments. [WA article 34]
my understanding is that 2 is an annual payment
This may be called a withdrawal agreement that has the full support of both the EU and UK bureaucrats but clearly the shafting will continue in or out without a so called hard brexit. I think the current plan is a referendum on this or remain

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: October 15, 2019, 08:07:33 PM »
I'm no monarchist but the queen being in favour of the EU is like a turkey looking forward to christmas.
From John Ward
"A research outfit in London informs me that, since late April this year – although those undecided/unaligned on Brexit remain constant at around 12% – the continuing trend is for so-called ‘mild Remainers’ to switch to Leave, and ‘mild Leavers’ to drift closer to a clean Brexit with no strings. The single biggest factors behind their decision are first, MPs reneging on ‘respect Leave’ promises; and second, a strongly negative attitude to perceived Brussels duplicity."
"I was in conversation with a retired diplomat last week who painted a very dismal picture. “Nothing will change,” he opined, “those too ghastly to face The People will remain above the marionette threatre, pulling the strings of different puppets”. He was, as they say, “retired early” so I suppose he ought to know." So casualties are inevitable Democracy the first, as poor as it was.
 read it all

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: October 07, 2019, 01:15:25 PM »
Capitalism is the abandoment of societal ethics, and embracing whatever market structures the creators of money decide is good for them. Without ethics society moves inexorably towards the kind of heirarchical structure the 'social' insects have gamed, and the creators of money will be at the center. 
Here we have something close to a miracle an economist who understands banks [perhaps he harbours ambitions to drive a cab] and outlines the coming iteration of financial control.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 02:19:21 AM »
Great explanation John, but why this persistence? A decadal swing in the location of these vortices or forcing due to sea ice changes?
Well I'm only guessing but it seems that as Atl. waters penetrate deeper into the Arctic more Arctic waters are forced out, whether on the surface or close to the deepest level. The loss of Barentz sea ice seems to be a key factor, so I assume the complex surface it once presented to tidal currents acted as a baffle, this gone allows a smoother inflow which in turn accelerates penetration. I've said elsewhere that it seems that currents are residuals of tidal flows and that currents on the scale we're examining appear to flow like slime bodies  So with more Atl. waters induced north in the general run of things only to be frustrated in their passage by particular circumstances we see persitent anomolies that wax and wane, related [i think] to the forcing of more variable surface outflows.
This season I expected a much earlier breakthrough of surface waters in the CAA, and more surface flow through Fram neither of which occured so perhaps there's been a significant increase in outflow  at depth through Fram forced by Atl. water ingress and in turn forcing Atl. waters ingress - evening out yet gently accelerating tidal fluctuations.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 03:14:31 PM »
I'm thinking there are several 'strings' of Atl. water flowing according to the bathymetry of the Greenland/Norwegian seas. The northernmost following the shelf where Barents begins. These currents are pressed to move north into the Arctic proper for this they have to climb over the deep outflowing current, as they climb their inherent spin [they've been approaching the axis of rotation for some time] forces them into vortices where the various fractions sort themselves out but they also interefere with one another, so some excess heat will be released but perhaps the sensors are also detecting the turbulence of the interefering vortices.

Nice catch B-l thanks, looking forward to Padmans work from this mission.

  Great stuff Espen thank you. Wow just wow covers it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 19, 2019, 10:58:24 AM »
However a wave is generated it is a visible sign of a pressure wave passing through the water. So in 20m of water that [1m?]wave may have enough energy to mix recently melted water inhibiting refreeze. That same pressure wave moving into 200m deep water will barely cause a [10cm?] ripple. On the shelves once a certain, differing, threshold of melt has passed wave action will mix the water around the ice, over the deep ocean the meltwater will move to the surface or as close as it can get thus allowing the ice to 'repair' itself with easy to freeze freshwater.
 Incoming Atlantic waters are already denser, more saline, than the surface waters of the Arctic, which is why their currents follow the channels into Barentz, and why they fall into the Eurasian basin.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 18, 2019, 05:02:58 PM »
As kindly suggested I apply to those of you who 'get it' here: Why should there be any connection between ocean depth and surface ice. The assumption that deep water in the CAB should somehow protect the ice keeps popping up, but why should that be the case?
Whereas the shelves will support wave action once a pressure waves passes the edge of the shelf it dissipates into water which can be orders of magnitude deeper.

Detail from courtesy polarview

Looking at the north side of the southern calving front, the overturning wave has collapsed. Look at AH post third from top above.

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: September 16, 2019, 02:36:23 PM »
Some of the horrors of the 'withdrawal agreement' listed below courtesy of the spectator. For me the worst of it is that despite denials from both 'our' and EU politicians during the referendum campaign an EU army is being formed who's only two rationales are suppression of dissent within, that is occupation of any dissenting regimes with 'foriegn' troops and EU war with Russia which would prove hard to bring about with independant soveriegn Eurpoean governments. ):

1. May says her deal means the UK leaves the EU next March. The Withdrawal Agreement makes a mockery of this. “All references to Member States and competent authorities of Member States…shall be read as including the United Kingdom.” (Art 6).
2. Not quite what most people understand by Brexit. It goes on to spell out that the UK will be in the EU but without any MEPs, a commissioner or ECJ judges. We are effectively a Member State, but we are excused – or, more accurately, excluded – from attending summits. (Article 7)
3. The European Court of Justice is decreed to be our highest court, governing the entire Agreement – Art. 4. stipulates that both citizens and resident companies can use it. Art 4.2 orders our courts to recognise this. “If the European Commission considers that the United Kingdom has failed to fulfil an obligation under the Treaties or under Part Four of this Agreement before the end of the transition period, the European Commission may, within 4 years after the end of the transition period, bring the matter before the Court of Justice of the European Union”. (Art. 87)
4. The jurisdiction of the ECJ will last until eight years after the end of the transition period. (Article 158).
5. The UK will still be bound by any future changes to EU law in which it will have no say, not to mention having to comply with current law. (Article 6(2))
6. Any disputes under the Agreement will be decided by EU law only – one of the most dangerous provisions. (Article 168).
7. This cuts the UK off from International Law, something we’d never do with any foreign body. Arbitration will be governed by the existing procedural rules of the EU law – this is not arbitration as we would commonly understand it (i.e. between two independent parties). (Article 174)
8. “UNDERLINING that this Agreement is founded on an overall balance of benefits, rights and obligations for the Union and the United Kingdom” No, it should be based upon the binding legal obligations upon the EU contained within Article 50. It is wrong to suggest otherwise.
9. The tampon tax clause: We obey EU laws on VAT, with no chance of losing the tampon tax even if we agree a better deal in December 2020 because we hereby agree to obey other EU VAT rules for **five years** after the transition period. Current EU rules prohibit 0-rated VAT on products (like tampons) that did not have such exemptions before the country joined the EU.
10. Several problems with the EU’s definitions: “Union law” is too widely defined and “United Kingdom national” is defined by the Lisbon Treaty: we should given away our right to define our citizens. The “goods” and the term “services” we are promised the deal are not defined – or, rather, will be defined however the EU wishes them to be. Thus far, this a non-defined term so far. This agreement fails to define it.
11. The Mandelson Pension Clause: The UK must promise never to tax former EU officials based here – such as Peter Mandelson or Neil Kinnock – on their E.U. pensions, or tax any current Brussels bureaucrats on their salaries. The EU and its employees are to be immune to our tax laws. (Article 104)
12. Furthermore, the UK agrees not to prosecute EU employees who are, or who might be deemed in future, criminals (Art.101)
13. The GDPR clause. The General Data Protection Regulation – the EU’s stupidest law ever? – is to be bound into UK law (Articles 71 to 73). There had been an expectation in some quarters that the UK could get out of it.
14. The UK establishes a ‘Joint Committee’ with EU representatives to guarantee ‘the implementation and application of this Agreement’. This does not sound like a withdrawal agreement – if it was, why would it need to be subject to continued monitoring? (Article 164).
15. This Joint Committee will have subcommittees with jurisdiction over: (a) citizens’ rights; (b) “other separation provisions”; (c) Ireland/Northern Ireland; (d) Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus; (e) Gibraltar; and (f) financial provisions. (Article 165)
16. The Lifetime clause: the agreement will last as long as the country’s youngest baby lives. “the persons covered by this Part shall enjoy the rights provided for in the relevant Titles of this Part for their lifetime”. (Article 39).
17. The UK is shut out of all EU networks and databases for security – yet no such provision exists to shut the EU out of ours. (Article 8)
18. The UK will tied to EU foreign policy, “bound by the obligations stemming from the international agreements concluded by the Union” but unable to influence such decisions. (Article 124)
19. All EU citizens must be given permanent right of residence after five years – but what counts as residence? This will be decided by the EU, rather than UK rules. (Articles 15-16)
20. Britain is granted the power to send a civil servant to Brussels to watch them pass stupid laws which will hurt our economy. (Article 34)
21. The UK agrees to spend taxpayers’ money telling everyone how wonderful the agreement is. (Article 37)
22. Art 40 defines Goods. It seems to includes Services and Agriculture. We may come to discover that actually ‘goods’ means everything.
23. Articles 40-49 practically mandate the UK’s ongoing membership of the Customs Union in all but name.
24. The UK will be charged to receive the data/information we need in order to comply with EU law. (Article 50). The EU will continue to set rules for UK intellectual property law (Article 54 to 61). The UK will effectively be bound by a non-disclosure agreement swearing us to secrecy regarding any EU developments we have paid to be part. This is not mutual. The EU is not bound by such measures. (Article 74)
25. The UK is bound by EU rules on procurement rules – which effectively forbids us from seeking better deals elsewhere. (Articles 75 to 78)
26. We give up all rights to any data the EU made with our money (Art. 103)
27. The EU decide capital projects (too broadly defined) the UK is liable for. (Art. 144)
28. The UK is bound by EU state aid laws until future agreement – even in the event of an agreement, this must wait four years to be valid. (Article 93)
29. Similar advantages and immunities are extended to all former MEPs and to former EU official more generally. (Articles 106-116)
30. The UK is forbidden from revealing anything the EU told us or tells us about the finer points of deal and its operation. (Article 105).
31. Any powers the UK parliament might have had to mitigate EU law are officially removed. (Article 128)
32. The UK shall be liable for any “outstanding commitments” after 2022 (Article 142(2) expressly mentions pensions, which gives us an idea as to who probably negotiated this). The amount owed will be calculated by the EU. (Articles 140-142)
33. The UK will be liable for future EU lending. As anyone familiar with the EU’s financials knows, this is not good. (Article143)
34. The UK will remain liable for capital projects approved by the European Investment Bank. (Article 150).
35. The UK will remain a ‘party’ (i.e. cough up money) for the European Development Fund. (Articles 152-154)
36. And the EU continues to calculate how much money the UK should pay it. So thank goodness Brussels does not have any accountancy issues.
37. The UK will remain bound (i.e coughing up money) to the European Union Emergency Trust Fund – which deals with irregular migration (i.e. refugees) and displaced persons heading to Europe. (Article 155)
38. The agreement will be policed by ‘the Authority’ – a new UK-based body with ‘powers equivalent to those of the European Commission’. (Article 159)
39. The EU admits, in Art. 184, that it is in breach of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which oblige it to “conclude an agreement” of the terms of UK leaving the EU. We must now, it seems, “negotiate expeditiously the agreements governing their future relationship.” And if the EU does not? We settle down to this Agreement.
40. And, of course, the UK will agree to pay £40bn to receive all of these ‘privileges’. (Article 138)

Todays polarview and 3 days til' the full moon

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 09, 2019, 12:02:49 PM »
Was there, or was there not, a BOE in the mid-Holocene?
Perhaps you should look up Patricia Sutherlands work and form a view.

The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: September 07, 2019, 12:34:16 PM »
There was a documentary featuring Chomsky on RT this week that spelled out the corporate takeover of the political process.
The curious thing about being the issuer of the means of exchange, whether as a banker within a nation or a nation in the world is that the cost of goods is the cost of fiat 'money' creation thus a 100 or 1000 dollar bill costing about 12c can be issued freely and provide for all a societies needs without any need for work, organising a prosperous and fulfilled society with that boon should be a piece of cake. Instead the rich waste vast and ever increasing resources to control, suppress and stick it to the poor, worldwide, go figure?

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: September 07, 2019, 11:57:37 AM »
" the earth's purpose is complete"
Until the sun sends us the bill everything will be ok.
Plus a little confimation bias, storms [lows] centered on the pole accelerate ice/surface water, relative to the rotating frame, which must then move south, coinciding with tidal forcing of Atl. waters through to St. Anna trough and thus across to Lomonosov would cause serious upwelling of warm waters, but even this late in the season not enough to cause more than temporary melt, that may change.

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: August 27, 2019, 01:31:25 AM »
So drifting ot "I've witnessed the effect that eating tulips has had on the intellect of following generation. Sad.
Terry" do tell
Intellect so far as I can see also depends on ancestral decisions. If cousin marraige, or isolated populations forced to inbreed, happens IQ drops @15 points with no advantages. If girls are allowed to breed then IQ drops @15 points with the advantages of robust physicallity/immunity and unwarranted confidence plus early 'maturity'. I guess the message from our genetic code is [if you want to be smart and tall] avoid Tulips/Cousins/Sisters eat well and wait wait wait.
Terry I guess that your maternal grandmother was over 25 and well nourished when she produced your mother?

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: August 27, 2019, 12:47:16 AM »
" Your comments and thoughts, please."
 Far from shore, I suspect that the pressure gradient between the Arctic and Labrador seas is increasingly being met by deep currents of Atlantic waters making their way around N. Greenland through Nares and into Baffin. If Petermann breaks soon that would add confidence to my thoughts, as the breakout of waters from the north side of Humbolt already has. IF my guess has merit then the surface flows, normally southbound become more prone to tidal, even wind, driven changes. So whilst the ice coming from the north will be driven against the coast of Ellesmere to accelerate it to equilibrium with tangential rotational speed once the surface flow is northbound the ice will switch sides and be slowed down by Greenland.

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: August 26, 2019, 11:42:20 PM »
Size is very dependant on diet mainly diets of ancestors. If you want to be tall the best thing to do is make sure your maternal grandmother eats well before and during her pregnancy. After generations of near starvation the English were reduced in height to an average of about 5ft, many victorian houses in the 1950s still had doors that were less than 6ft. high. So within three generations the size/height of a population can be transformed.
I've never seen a study that examined the cumulative effects of great/rubbish diets over long periods but there was a Finnish study that established that the effects of starvation carried implications for genetic expression through at least 7 generations.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 26, 2019, 03:39:54 PM »
Not the question you asked but "Hydrate breakdown is an endothermic process, absorbing heat while the surrounding sediment cools. Because the specific heat of methane hydrates is about half that of water, hydrate-bearing sediment stores less heat which can then be made available to help fuel dissociation. When estimating the efficiency of hydrate dissociation, neglecting the reduced contribution of methane hydrates to the host sedi-ment’s specific heat results in an overestimate of the dissocia-tion rate and, hence, the methane production rate." from

Just a link to a JayW animation of the Greenland sea clearing the ice for some late season action.,2649.msg224396.html#msg224396

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 20, 2019, 07:30:45 PM »
"Well, warm Atlantic waters even made it up to Kane Basin" Or did it arrive from the north?

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 20, 2019, 02:55:23 PM »
Another look at the outflow from Zach/79N and Humbolt curious that despite clear evidence of flows from Jakobshvn no sign of freshwater. The second gif shows the uplift in temp around 5/6 Aug. 9c associated with the outflow at Zach/79N. 1, 30days from 27:07. 2, 10 days from 01:08

Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: August 19, 2019, 10:00:05 PM »
Ice, and any fresher water escaping the Arctic [through Fram] on the surface is going to hug the Greenland coast because it has to be accelerated by 17mph/27kph for every degree it moves south only contact with an immovable object will do that.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: August 19, 2019, 09:24:42 PM »
Ice on the [other right] side of the strait, my take

going from the pole to southern greenland is about 300 the difference in tangential surface speed is 500mph+ so about 17mph/27kph per degree, the only way the ice gains speed is to spend a little time on Ellesmeres coast.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: August 17, 2019, 06:46:06 PM »
110 took quite a battering, I'm guessing intersecting waves reflected off the shelves caused a huge pressure spike on the 15th July, it looks like it 'bounced' generating tauroidal 'smoke ring' type wave structures which spread across the whole basin sending shockwaves back which damaged 110 when it approached the shelf/amundsen generated tidal vortices around the 5th. 1.7mb gif won't be here long
switched gif for link

I chose sept16-30, the frequent stops and starts of ice export in Fram suggest to me that the deep current of Atl. water from the north is balancing most of the demand of the gradient between the Arctic and Baffin. That current I'm guessing enters on the north side of Peterman and leaves on the south side, enhanced by the tides, so since I expect that current to warm until at least mid sept. the best chance of the island breaking free probably comes towards the end of sept as the tides peak.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 14, 2019, 07:09:02 PM »
Consider this, "When I look around at the state of public discourse in ‘the West’  what strikes me is that everyone says they want to have a reasoned and rational debate but say that the reason it doesn’t happen is because the ‘other side’ is irrational and so they can’t be debated with. The ‘other side’, their opponents say, always avoids the debate, is never willing to just answer a reasonable question and generally just refuse to have the debate they claim to want.  Does this resonate with you?" continued here :-

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: August 13, 2019, 06:35:59 PM »
I prefer the idea of universal basic credit where everyone would be allowed a subsistence amount of interest free credit, which has to be repaid by a 2.5% tax on every transaction. Eventually enough of this interest free 'money' would exist to liberate society from the near 40% upstream interest charges on every transaction that supports the financial sector, and thus allow sophisticated societies to evolve which wouldn't price themselves out of work.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 11, 2019, 12:21:17 PM »
A look at freshwater discharge. 30 days to 10:08 HYCOM

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: August 09, 2019, 03:42:41 PM »
Slightly ot, interesting animations of arctic tides, though i think they've developed, showing the surge out of Nares into Lincoln.

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: August 03, 2019, 12:10:36 AM »
" Their thing is talking about how an advanced, at least compared to what we now understand, civilization existed in pre-history."

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: August 01, 2019, 03:26:28 PM »
Gumbercules perhaps you should try to trace the history of the big heads of Puma Punka which Brien Foerster takes such an interest in, they're as close as anyone to fitting the bill.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: August 01, 2019, 03:02:57 PM »
I think the tides force Atl.Wat. through Fram some fraction moves along the Greenland shelf, some surges into the basins which causes internal waves to slew back and forth causing upwelling vortices both here and at the Laptev end.

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