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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current - 4 Dec

Qu: But how much melt before the next blast ?
_____________________________
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current - 8 Dec

A:  Quite a lot (North America and Eurasia)

My speculation that belongs to me (mostly stolen from real scientists) - for North America especially ↠↠
Global heating ↠ Weak Polar Vortex
↠ ↠ large slow-moving Rossby Waves 
↠ ↠ influx of cold & snow from the North
↠ ↠ followed by influx of warmth from the South

= record snowfall & storms followed by strong melt = overall average snow cover.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: Today at 08:15:03 AM »
5 days of extreme sea ice extent gains has put the cat amongst the pigeons.
A new record low 365 day average extent in 2019 is in the range of impossible to infinitely impossible

A week ago I wrote....
 
Quote
So if 2019 extent gains are at average or above, the difference in extent between 2019 and 2018 could quickly reduce. Also, in general, variations in extent between years reduce as winter progresses. This will reduce the daily reduction in the 365 daily average and thus lengthen the time to reach a record low - or even prevent that record low from happening.
And on the 7th December 2019 extent became greater than 2018 - so the date for a new record low is currently The 12th of Never and that's a long, long time.

So what will happen from now? Will 2019 extent stay above 2018 or will extent gains from now become below average?

In defiance of probability I still plump for an early 2020 record low - (Jan to March), but have no scientific basis whatsoever for that guess

Data table & graphs attached
_________________________________________

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 08:04:12 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :-  22,042,280 km2(December 8, 2019)

Above average Antarctic extent loss more than matched by extreme Arctic extent gains.

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 110 k, 37 k less than the last 10 years' average of 147 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.56 million km2, 0.03 million (1.0 %) more than the 10 year average of 2.53 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.82 million km2 greater than 2016,
- 27.8 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 68 days to the average minimum date of 13 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still extremely early to take this seriously. Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 15.47 million km2, 0.08 million less than the record low in early 2018.
_____________________________________________________________
[/quote]

4
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: Today at 07:48:12 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,073,060 km2(December 8, 2019)

- 2019 is 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 274 k, 70 k more than the last 10 years' average of 204 k,
- Extent loss to date 77 million km2, 0.71 million (10.8%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 6.56 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,097 k more than 2016 on this day,
- Extent is 36 k more than 1982 on this day,

- 41.1% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 74 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.68 million km2, 0.46 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017, which would be astonishing.
______________________________________________________________

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 07:10:47 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,969,220 km2(December 8, 2019)

A fifth day of extreme extent gains that seem ever-increasing.

- Extent gain on this day 164 k, 107k more than the average gain of 57k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,005 k, 442k (6.7%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,563 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 720 k more than 2016
- Extent is 89k more than 2018
- Extent is 16 k (0.1%)  more than the 2010's average.

- on average 66.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 94 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.25 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.37 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.

Very cold in Hudson Bay - extreme sea ice gains there contributing to the extreme sea ice gains over the last 5 days?
_____________________________________________________________
With luck this laptop will be operational today so NSIDC Area & Extent can be looked at to see from whence all these sea ice gains are coming.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 08, 2019, 11:40:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,805,648 km2(December 7, 2019)

A fourth day of extreme extent gains.

- Extent gain on this day 153 k, 99k more than the average gain of 54k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,841 k, 335k (5.2%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,506 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 628 k more than 2016

- Extent is 7 k more than 2018
- Extent is 85 k (0.8%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 66.1 % of extent gain for the the season done, 95 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.14 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.26 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.3  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.
_____________________________________________________________

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 07, 2019, 10:10:13 PM »
The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are some more EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

Okhotsk Sea             Too early for comment.
St Lawrence Sea    ----- ditto -----

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 07, 2019, 10:07:55 PM »
The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are some more EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

CENTRAL ARCTIC

This year the ESS and the Beaufort seemed to be more part of the Big Chukchi bite, but one year is only one year.

Beaufort Sea Late freeze but finished on time.
East Siberian Sea (ESS)    ----- ditto -----

Central Arctic Sea Was way above 2010's average extent most of the year. Is solidly at maximum in contrast with recent years.

And yet - experience from the MOSAIC project and Mike Horn's skiing holiday says the ice is thin and broken up.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 07, 2019, 09:21:41 PM »
The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are some more EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

ATLANTIC FRONT
Greenland Sea
Distinguishing any trend from the ups and downs of ice export from the CAB via the Fram Strait is impossible for me. So simply look at the graph.

Barents Sea Freezing early, but a long way to g.

Kara Sea A tale of 2 halves - late October freeze, very rapid November freeze.

Laptev Freeze started very late and finished only a few days late- Extent now  100%.

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: December 07, 2019, 09:09:18 PM »
I was hoping I would be dead before someone would do something really, really stupid with AI and robots.

Unfortunately, progress has been far too rapid in developing capability.
Some general somewhere.......

11
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 07, 2019, 09:01:56 PM »
Yeah not things you would ever think you would see.

And no, i live in the city so i don´t have much direct reports myself (just that the ducks are having new chicks in september which is a little later then usual).

They were new then so that was rather late in september or beyond the normal system.
I have seen chickens starting in february years ago in years where we have an early spring that starts after a balmy version of winter. 

So yesterday i walk around a corner and there is momma duck with 4 new ones. Real new ones about 2 weeks old. In december! Guess

That was quite unexpected. Wonder how well they will do. We had one coldish day and for the rest it is balmy. Tree looks like it is in spring mode too...

BTW location netherlands.
Quacky weather? (sorry for that)

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 07, 2019, 08:20:12 PM »
The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

CANADIAN SEAS
Baffin Bay
A surprise this year - early to melt, late to freeze. Will the maximum also be a record low?
Of interest (at least to me) is that over the years the March sea ice maximum is declining much faster than the September minimum (which still does not reach zero). This is in contrast to the overall trend in the Arctic Seas. The Atlantic warmth is pushing north?

Canadian Archipelago (CAA) Is frozen completely pretty much on schedule, or maybe 5 days late?

Chukchi Sea Freezing is late, very late, but looks like the only question is how late the complete freeze-up will be.

Hudson Bay Freeze started late but is now playing catch-up with a vengeance. But will final freeze be early, on time or late?
[/quote]

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 07, 2019, 07:23:45 PM »
The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

Total Arctic Extent Shows that extent at maximum is declining much more slowly than extent at minimum. 2019-20 shows no sign of breaking that trend.

PACIFIC GATEWAY
Bering Sea
Too early to make any useful comment.
Chukchi Sea Freezing is late, very late, but looks like the only question is how late the complete freeze-up will be.

14
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: December 07, 2019, 06:01:28 PM »
Looks like Cyclone Belna will do some damage on Madagascar

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 07, 2019, 04:03:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,430,332 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 9,430,332    km2      
-263,872    km2   <   2010's average.
-330,827    km2   <   2018
-660,630    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    90    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__    35    k   gain
Other Seas___    49    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    23    k   gain
Greenland____   -21    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________    5    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    26    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    48    k   gain

Daily gain 90 k, 24 k MORE than the 2010's average of 66 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 264 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 331 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 812 km2
- 2019 area 5th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.1  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, -

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front which are probably contributing to the recent large extent gains. You can see the switch from gains to losses and vice versa by looking at the previous days data in the tables.

Note also 48k gain in Hudson Bay
________________________________________________________________________

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 07, 2019, 03:20:06 PM »
Well found, dnem

A pity that most of the powers that presume to govern us prefer Binntho's view.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: December 07, 2019, 03:14:34 PM »
The weather will be very mild the next five days so there will be an opportunity to catch up.

Not so sure about that - no storm but windy enough for discomfort given the parlous state of the floe & environs?

Nullschool says 30 kmh wind tomorrow.
Gradual reduction over the next few days to 20 kmh and gradual direction change from 135 to 180o

18
Consequences / Re: IPCC Ocean & Cryosphere Report 2019
« on: December 07, 2019, 02:05:46 PM »
Welcome to the Dead Zones

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/07/oceans-losing-oxygen-at-unprecedented-rate-experts-warn
Oceans losing oxygen at unprecedented rate, experts warn
Quote
Dead zones – where oxygen is effectively absent – have quadrupled in extent in the last half-century, and there are also at least 700 areas where oxygen is at dangerously low levels, up from 45 when research was undertaken in the 1960s.

https://portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/2019-048-En.pdf

19
The rescue team is 150 meters away from the expeditioners. But they are separated by a gap of open water which will take a few hours to walk around if they choose to do so.

EDIT: They have now met each other on the ice, and need to make their way back to the ship.
..which seems to be not that easy, more pesky leads?

.. and the ship ("Lance") sees to be a bit stuck in the ice.

But it seems the spin is in - there was no emergency, this was not a rescue, blah blah blah.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 07, 2019, 10:06:50 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,652,265 km2(December 6, 2019)

A third day of extreme extent gains.

- Extent gain on this day 106 k, 43k more than the average gain of 63k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,688 k, 236k (3.7%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,452 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 568 k more than 2016

- Extent is 65 k less than 2018
- Extent is 175 k (1.6%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 65.6 % of extent gain for the the season done, 96 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.04 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.16 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.1  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, -

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front which are probably contributing to the recent large extent gains.
_____________________________________________________________

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: December 06, 2019, 09:07:32 PM »
^^^

I noticed you left 2019 off that chart.  We have the information for 2019.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-coal-power-set-for-record-fall-in-2019

Quote
Analysis: Global coal power set for record fall in 2019

Quote
Global electricity production from coal is on track to fall by around 3% in 2019, the largest drop on record.

This would amount to a reduction of around 300 terawatt hours (TWh), more than the combined total output from coal in Germany, Spain and the UK last year.
Not my graph - only went to 2018
Graph is actual coal production. Yr post is about coal used for electricity and is an estimate.

Apples and pears. I will wait for actual 2019 coal production - it will be lower I am sure, but by how much?


22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 06, 2019, 04:01:46 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,340,320  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 9,340,320    km2      
-287,888    km2   <   2010's average.
-398,041    km2   <   2018
-693,555    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    75    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -1    k   loss
Central Seas__    30    k   gain
Other Seas___    46    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    18    k   gain
Greenland____   -16    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    8    k   gain
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__    8    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    25    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    40    k   gain

Daily gain 75 k, 10 k MORE than the 2010's average of 65 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 288 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 398 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 767 km2
- 2019 area 5th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +0.9  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days, -

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction - especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. You can see the switch from gains to losses and vice versa by looking at the previous days data in the tables.
________________________________________________________________________

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 06, 2019, 02:19:52 PM »
Quote
Year zero failed the last time it was tried and millions died as a result .......
KiwiGriff, the only "Year Zero" I am familiar with is "Panic in the Year Zero", an old movie about a nuclear war.
Is that what you are referring to here?
If you want to make yourself really ill, read all about it.......

Year Zero (political notion) - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Year_Zero_(political_notion)
The term Year Zero applied to the takeover of Cambodia in April 1975 by the Khmer Rouge, ... Perpetrators. "Angkar Leu". Pol Pot · Nuon Chea · Ieng Sary · Khieu Samphan · Son Sen · Ta Mok · Khmer Rouge · Communist Party of Kampuchea .

Year Zero: The Silent Death of Cambodia - John Pilger
johnpilger.com › videos › year-zero-the-silent-death-of-cambodia
John Pilger's shocking 1979 documentary Year Zero: The Silent Death of Cambodia alerted the world to the horrors wrought by Pol Pot and his Khmer Rouge.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: December 06, 2019, 01:48:34 PM »
To me it looks like the MOSAIC project has had some windy times but not a real humdinger. So I did a google to see if they should expect one.

Perhaps they should, especially in this month.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45574-5
Winter storms accelerate the demise of sea ice in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean
Introduction

Quote
The strongest storms in the Arctic Ocean typically occur during winter and originate from the North Atlantic Ocean1,2 (Fig. 1). The number and intensity of Arctic winter storms has increased over the period 1979–2016. These storms often generate strong southerly winds that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic from the mid-latitudes, contributing to record breaking winter temperatures.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7def
Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends
Abstract

Quote
Typically 20–40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called 'weather bombs') occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979–2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent with observed significant winter warming, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3–4 events/decade in November–December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February.

25
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 06, 2019, 12:48:59 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,767,601 km2(December 5, 2019)

A third double century extent loss on this day
- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 241 k, 56 k more than the last 10 years' average of 185 k,
- Extent loss to date 6.58 million km2, 0.57 million (9.5%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 6.01 million km2 by this day.
- 37.7 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 77 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.83 million km2, 0.31 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
______________________________________________________________

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 06, 2019, 12:34:03 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,546,431 km2(December 5, 2019)

A second day of extreme extent gains.

- Extent gain on this day 134 k, 65k more than the average gain of 69k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,582 k, 194k (3.0%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,389 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 500 k more than 2016

- Extent is 95 k less than 2018
- Extent is 209 k (2.6%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 64.9 % of extent gain for the the season done, 97 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.00 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.12 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +0.9  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days, -

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front which are probably contributing to the recent large extent gains.
_____________________________________________________________

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: December 05, 2019, 10:02:51 PM »
China is requiring five big utilities to reduce coal-fired power capacity by 25% to 33% by the end of 2021.

BEIJING, Dec 2 (Reuters) - China plans to slash coal-fired power capacity at its five biggest utilities by as much as a third in two years by merging their assets,

So that's a minimum of 130 GW capacity that will be retired in two years.
The key phrase is "by merging their assets". The utilities are forced to shut the oldest and least used plants so that their newer plants can operate at much closer to capacity.

So while 130 GW of capacity might be shut, generation & coal consumption is just switched to other under-utilised plants.

Meanwhile....

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 05, 2019, 08:34:28 PM »
China's demand for natural gas has been slowing, reducing producer's hopes of an end to the natural gas glut.
Not clear if the growth in China gas demand is slowing, or the actual absolute amount of gas being used is declining.

Only difference is how quickly a lot of US producers go bust.

29
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: December 05, 2019, 08:15:06 PM »
A recent study on the USA by The Century Foundation is at...
https://tcf.org/content/report/robots-beginning-affect-workers-wages/?agreed=1.&agreed=1

At the moment the low-paid uneducated doing routine repetitive jobs in industry are most likely to be displaced. No surprise, easy to automate. But 'tis early days yet.
______________________
The quote and table below are 3 years out of date but quite scary (at least to me).

https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally
Quote
The top 10 most automated countries in the world are: South Korea, Singapore, Germany, Japan, Sweden, Denmark, USA, Italy, Belgium and Taiwan. This is according to the 2017 World Robot Statistics, issued by the International Federation of Robotics (IFR).

“Robot density is an excellent standard for comparison in order to take into account the differences in the automation degree of the manufacturing industry in various countries,” says Junji Tsuda, President of the International Federation of Robotics. “As a result of the high volume of robot installations in Asia in recent years, the region has the highest growth rate. Between 2010 and 2016, the average annual growth rate of robot density in Asia was 9 percent, in the Americas 7 percent and in Europe 5 percent.”

The development of robot density in China was the most dynamic in the world. Due to the significant growth of robot installations, particularly between 2013 and 2016, the density rate rose from 25 units in 2013 to 68 units in 2016. Today, China’s robot density ranks 23rd worldwide. And the government intends to forge ahead and make it into the world’s top 10 most intensively automated nations by 2020. By then, its robot density is targeted to rise to 150 units. Furthermore, the aim is to sell a total of 100,000 domestically produced industrial robots by 2020 (2017: 27,000 units from Chinese robot suppliers, 60,000 from foreign robot suppliers).

Worldwide, the Republic of Korea has by far the highest robot density in the manufacturing industry – a position the country has held since 2010. The country’s robot density exceeds the global average by a good eight-fold (631 units). This high growth rate is the result of continued installations of a high volume of robots particularly in the electrical/electronics industry and in the automotive industry.


30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: December 05, 2019, 07:51:10 PM »
Russia' Arctic Developments...

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-industry-and-energy/2019/10/shipping-northern-sea-route-40
Shipping on Northern Sea Route up 40%
Goods volumes are expected to reach 29 million tons in course of 2019, says leader of Russia’s Northern Sea Route Administration.

October 04, 2019
Quote
According to Nikolay Monko, shipments on the Arctic route in the first nine months of the year amounted to 23,37 million tons. By the end of the year, the volumes are likely to reach 29 million tons, the acting head of the Northern Sea Route Administration said in this week’s RAO/СIS Offshore conference in St. Petersburg.

The shipping volumes constitute an increase of more than 40 percent from last year. In 2018, a total of 20,18 million tons of goods were transported on the route.

The lion’s share of NSR ship traffic is related to the liquified natural gas produced by Novatek. The company’s Yamal LNG is expected to produce more than 16 million tons in 2019.

Few transit shipments
Despite the major increase in Arctic shipping, transit shipments between east and west on the Northern Sea Route remain low. In the first nine months of 2019, a total of 441,800 tons was shipped on the route. Like in the previous years, the key share of the transit shipments was provided by Chinese company COSCO.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2019/10/putin-wants-new-connection-between-arctic-coast-and-indian-ocean/

Putin wants new connection between Arctic coast and Indian Ocean
The construction of a railway line to Sabetta is what is needed, the president argues.

Quote
«Together, we must contemplate about how to speed up the formation of an Eurasian transport network, a true grid of latitudinal and longitudinal routes,» Putin underlined in his speech and subsequently underlined that the Arctic must be part of the picture.

«One perspective route is between the Arctic, Siberia and Asia,» he said and added that the missing link in the picture is a railway line to Sabetta, the new Arctic seaport on the northern coast of peninsula Yamal.

«The idea is to connect the ports on the Northern Sea Route with the ports of the Pacific and Indian Oceans by means of transport arterials through Eastern Siberia, the heartlands of Eurasia,» the president told the conference participants.

Among them were Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, King of Jordan Abdullah II, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Filipinian leader Rodrigo Duterte

«In order to implement this idea, we intend to speed up the construction of railway lines to the port of Sabetta,» Putin said.

The connection is part of the major Northern Latitudinal Passage project and is aimed a boosting shipments across Russian Arctic waters.

A 170 km long railway line to Sabetta is projected to connect with an existing line to Bovanenkovo, the natural gas hub in the region. The Northern Latitudinal Passage also includes a 17 km long bridge across the Ob River, from Salekhard to Labytnangi, and a railway line to Novy Urengoy in Western Siberia.

More than 700 km of new railway must be built to complete the whole project. The lion’s share of the new infrastructure will have to be built on the permafrost and in harsh Arctic conditions.

Several government ministries have previously made clear that the Northern Latitudinal Passage will be completed in year 2024 and that the goods volumes on the new railway ultimately will boost shipments on the Northern Sea Route by up to eight million tons by 2025.

Needed investments are estimated to more than 230 billion rubles (€3 billion). A major share of it is to be covered by private companies.

31
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 4 December 2019


Accumulated Data 1 Sept to 4 December

Melt From now of zero consequence until next April, but today a bit of sublimation in the SE

and

PRECIPITATION up & down like a yo-yo as usual, and i the last few day very much up - result.....

SMB abovt average - with the average much less than average on the west and the average much above average in the East (especially SE), and a the blob of above average SMB in the **NW becoming more substantial.

**Might be something to do with open water above average in Baffin Bay reaching as far as the Nares strait along the West coast.
________________________________________________________________________
Quotes from DMI
Quote
The Greenland Ice Sheet evolves throughout the year as weather conditions change. Precipitation increases the mass of the ice sheet, whilst greater warmth leads to melting, which causes it to lose mass. The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.

Melting does not in itself necessarily give rise to mass loss, however. Much of the meltwater will refreeze in the surface snow layers rather than running off the ice sheet, and this process is included in the calculations of surface mass balance which is why the melt area plot may differ from the areas of negative mass balance seen on the map “Daily change”. Likewise, sublimation does not count as melting and surface mass balance can therefore occur with the surface temperature being far below the melting point.
_______________________________________________________________

32
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: December 05, 2019, 07:21:51 PM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current - 4 Dec

But how much melt before the next blast ?

33
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 05, 2019, 07:04:51 PM »
Musk announces Tesla priorities for Q4 2019.

https://electrek.co/2019/12/04/tesla-two-most-critical-priorities-elon-musk/amp/

Predictable.
He sent an e-mail to the employees to tell 'em to deliver the cars and get the solar power sales up.
Pretty routine.

Not an announcement to the Public of  TESLA's latest pow, wow, whoopee.

I tell you, methinks Tesla's playing it cool. P'raps Musk is hoping to encourage the shorties by his silence & then zap them with Qu4 results - A New Year Present to himself, and within the SEC rules.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: December 05, 2019, 06:41:22 PM »
It seems the Russian icebreaker, "Kapitan Dranitsyn" has now left port  (Tromso) and is on its way.

It also seems it will divert, if necessary, to help getting Horn and Ousland off the ice, and maybe rescue  the Norwegian research ship «Lance» which has got stuck trying to get to the two men.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2019/12/russian-icebreaker-set-out-tromso-course-ice-locked-german-research-ship
A Russian icebreaker set out from Tromsø with course for ice-locked German research ship
The «Kapitan Dranitsyn» is bringing equipment, supplies and 95 researchers to the «Polarstern» as part of great international research expedition MOSAiC.


'Tis the "Law of the Sea" - both written & unwritten.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 05, 2019, 04:05:43 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,265,253  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 9,265,253    km2      
-298,120    km2   <   2010's average.
-471,703    km2   <   2018
-707,036    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    75    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    0    k   gain
Central Seas__    32    k   gain
Other Seas___    43    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    16    k   gain
Greenland____   -9    k   loss
Barents ______   -10    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    10    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    9    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -10    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    26    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    9    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    31    k   gain

Daily gain 75 k, 9 k MORE than the 2010's average of 66 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 298 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 472 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 738 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.2  to +1.0 celsius over the next 5 days, -

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction - especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. You can see the switch from gains to losses and vice versa by looking at the previous days data in the tables.
________________________________________________________________________

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 05, 2019, 03:20:46 PM »
Well, I could make several points, such as the following:

1) GDP is obviously not a measure of happiness. But it is the closest we've got.

2) There is no research that supports the claim that happiness and life satisfaction stalls when basic material needs have been met. This sounds more like a dystopian trope of the kind common in extistentialistic literature.

3) The richer a society is (i.e. the higher it's GDP), the better off its citisens are. They have better housing, better health care, better food, better clothing, better education, safer environments, less sickness, less likelyhood of violent death, more leisure time, and are more interested in the good things in life such as red wine by candlelight, hiking, skiing and other outdoor sports, and much more interested in nature preservation. Perhaps this doesn't add up to happiness, but to me it definitely smells like it.
1) GDP was never designed to be a measure of happiness. It is designed to measure economic activity in financial terms. It does not look at the "worth" of that activity. That it is used as a measure of happiness is just one of the really dumb things in the world.

2) There is evidence to suggest that when a society moves up from poverty to a "reasonable" standard of living discontent can emerge. "Man does not live by bread alone".  In South Korea as the economy improved so did the demand for political freedoms. The link tells you all about it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwangju_Uprising

Note that the expenses of the Government to suppress the people increased GDP.

You may wish to consider the situation in China & Hong Kong. I am sure the Central Party Committee are doing so.

1) again...GDP "is the closest we've got" to a measure of happiness. Rubbish.

UN Measures
Human Development Index (HDI)

Quote
The HDI was created to emphasize that people and their capabilities should be the ultimate criteria for assessing the development of a country, not economic growth alone. The HDI can also be used to question national policy choices, asking how two countries with the same level of GNI per capita can end up with different human development outcomes. These contrasts can stimulate debate about government policy priorities.

The Human Development Index (HDI) is a summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable and have a decent standard of living. The HDI is the geometric mean of normalized indices for each of the three dimensions.

The health dimension is assessed by life expectancy at birth, the education dimension is measured by mean of years of schooling for adults aged 25 years and more and expected years of schooling for children of school entering age. The standard of living dimension is measured by gross national income per capita. The HDI uses the logarithm of income, to reflect the diminishing importance of income with increasing GNI. The scores for the three HDI dimension indices are then aggregated into a composite index using geometric mean.
http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi

there are others such as the UN's Gender Inequality Index, and... also from the UN....

https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2019/#read

Other Indices
Freedom / Civil Liberties
list at this link
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_freedom_indices

That's me lot. Sorry about all this off-topic stuff, but I thought that the posts by Binntho needed a thorough debunking as that which he states as facts are so - wrong.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 05, 2019, 02:20:01 PM »
Surveys done amongst people who have won large sums in the lottery show that they are mostly much happier than they were before, and happier than other people, even many years after winning. And the happiest countries in the world (as self-reported in surveys) are also amongst the richest countries in the world.
Why do you not quote your sources?

So we've had the "broken window fallacy" - on economic growth. That one has been debunked since 1833, but will not die. And now you come along with lottery winners - I see a large herring coloured bright red.

Next post looks at GDP

__________________________________________________-
https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/10.1162/REST_a_00114
Review of Economics and Statistics
Volume 93 | Issue 3 | August 2011
p.961-969
Abstract

This paper examines whether giving large cash transfers to financially distressed people causes them to avoid bankruptcy. A comparison of Florida Lottery winners who randomly received $50,000 to $150,000 to small winners indicates that such transfers only postpone bankruptcy rather than prevent it, a result inconsistent with the negative shock model of bankruptcy. Furthermore, the large winners who subsequently filed for bankruptcy had similar net assets and unsecured debt as small winners. Thus, our findings suggest that skepticism regarding the long-term impact of cash transfers may be warranted.
__________________________________________________
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/04/17/nearly-one-third-of-u-s-lottery-winners-declare-bankruptcy/
In fact, nearly one-third of lottery winners declare bankruptcy, and it doesn’t end there. It’s usually followed by depression, drug and alcohol abuse and estrangement from family and friends.
________________________________________________________

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: December 05, 2019, 01:58:14 PM »
the (UK) average cost of electricity per kWh is 14.37p, and the average gas cost per kWh is 3.80p.

I know gerontocrat, we haven't even touched on the fact that with the current power market, gas is massively cheaper than electricity.

Also the drive to CO2 neutral is pushing the short term electricity costs up, not down. Which increases resistance.

I can't see the stay warm initiative for pensioners doing quite so well without cheap gas to source the heat.

Promises need to come with a solid foundation of calculations to back them up.  Today, in the UK, we are doing "look after you leap" in the renewable energy space.
Isn't the high price of electricity due to the construction of new nuclear power plants like Hinckley C?  If the UK switched to renewables they'd find electricity prices going down.

Many utilities in the US have announced plans to retire coal plants well before the ends of their useful lives and switch to wind and/or solar with battery back up to save billions of dollars.

A new solar or wind farm can be built within two years of permitting and portions of it can be added to the grid before the entire farm is completed.
There is no doubt that Hinkley C when completed is going to be a weight on the electricity consumer for the next 40 to 50 years. But it is not in the current tariff. We don't know if the UK Government will push any more new plants.

Existing nuclear plants are not - construction costs have been largely written off and now the taxpayer is being stuffed with the decommissioning costs.

However, electricity generation cost itself is much less than half of the electricity bill. Even though, unlike NeilT I believe that we will see some reduction in electricity generation costs as wind+solar+battery (and maybe tidal) form the basis of UK electricity generation, gas for heating will still be much cheaper. We have a Gas national grid built in the 1960s to the 1980s and apart from asset replacement all construction costs are written down through deprecation / amortisation.

The Electricity National Grid has to be redesigned and rebuilt for a massive number of sources of electricity generation and consumption, many with 2-way traffic from the existing grid of a few large power sources and one-way traffic down to the consumer. Who will pay for the legacy costs of dumping redundant structures and building new structures?

The people who run our National Grid say that there are existing practical measures that will allow the UK to run a 100% renewable electricity supply. But it won't be cheap and it is not a case of simply building solar + wind farms and having a big plug to connect to the grid.

Meanwhile, signs of new life in the UK renewable industry.  - Solar+Wind+Batteries

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/04/scottish-power-build-solar-panels-windfarms
Scottish Power plans to build solar panels beside windfarms
Quote
Scottish Power plans to squeeze more renewable electricity from its onshore windfarms by covering the ground beside the turbines with photovoltaic panels and batteries.

The wind power firm has applied for permission to build its first solar power projects beneath the blades of its existing windfarms in Cornwall, Lancashire and Coldham.

Scottish Power says it hopes to include solar panels in the vast majority of its future onshore windfarms across Scotland and Ireland, depending on whether the ground conditions are suitable for panels.

Keith Anderson, Scottish Power’s chief executive, said: “Every green megawatt of electricity will be crucial if we stand any chance of hitting net zero in 2050. This means squeezing the absolute maximum potential out of every clean energy project that we consider.”

The Guardian revealed last month that Scottish Power had kicked off plans for an expansion of onshore windfarm projects across Scotland in anticipation of an expected government U-turn on support for wind power projects.

The company’s renewable energy division has considered almost 100 sites in Scotland and Ireland for a new breed of windfarm that uses fewer powerful turbines and can be fitted with solar panels and batteries.

In some cases, adding 10MW panels and 10MW of energy storage could double the green energy capacity of small windfarm sites.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 05, 2019, 10:58:57 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :-   22,420,949 km2(December 4, 2019)

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 107 k, 25 k less than the last 10 years' average of 132 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.18 million km2, 0.13 million (6.5 %) more than the 10 year average of 2.05 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.65 million km2 greater than 2016,
- 22.5 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 72 days to the average minimum date of 13 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still extremely early to take this seriously. Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 15.36 million km2, 0.19 million less than the record low in early 2018.
_____________________________________________________________

40
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 05, 2019, 10:24:07 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 12,008,820 km2(December 4, 2019)

A second double century extent loss on this day
- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 253 k, 48 k more than the last 10 years' average of 205 k,
- Extent loss to date 6.34 million km2, 0.50 million (8.6%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 5.84 million km2 by this day.
- 36.6 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 78 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.89 million km2, 0.26 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
______________________________________________________________

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 05, 2019, 10:09:13 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,412,129 km2(December 4, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 146 k, 74k more than the average gain of 742k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,448 k, 129k (2.0%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,319 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 384 k more than 2016
- Extent is 28 k less than 2006

- Extent is 199 k less than 2018
- Extent is 275 k (2.6%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 64.2 % of extent gain for the the season done, 98 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.93 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.05 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.2  to +1.0 celsius over the next 5 days, - 

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front.
_____________________________________________________________

42
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 04, 2019, 09:51:12 PM »
Aussie Wildfires - & only one week into summer....

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/04/living-through-endless-weeks-of-dirty-air-it-does-your-head-in-and-your-lungs#comment-136174805
Quote
Post your comment

hawkeye634m ago

You do wonder if everyone in power today watched a film like The Day After Tomorrow and shouted at the screen "Why is no one listening to Dennis Quaid?"

Sunhead Darkspear6m ago

Remember kids.
ScoMo is an End Times Evangelical. He believes now is the time of Revelations, and they sky is black and the star are gone and the moon is red are all there in the 'prophecy' he believes in. This is good for him, he is Gods Elect Chosen to be Raptured to create The Earth anew after it is destroyed.
Sounds like a demented fairytale.

 hawkeye637m ago

The reason nothing gets done is because people in power think that human ingenuity will sort things out when the crises stop. They don't ever think there will be a day when they simply. don't. stop.

FriendlyFerret15m ago

Welcome to our world. Now it has come to the cities. No-one was worried elsewhere while the people of the Latrobe Valley lived int his for weeks and weeks while the mine was on fire. They didn't evacuate then, as they didn't care.
They can't evacuate now, as there is nowhere to go. Truth coming home.

LovelyDaffodils21m ago

I love a fire burnt country,
a land of searing plains,
of smoke-filled air and dust storms,
and a PM with no brains

Ingenui22m ago

Yep and we can still use open fireplaces and slow combustion wood heaters in the home on smokey winter days.
And gardeners can also continue to whip up more dust and pollution on these smokey windy days.
Who cares that the people can't breathe doggie?
gerontocrat28m ago

And only at the start of the summer.
When what were one-off events go on and and on...... - welcome to Global Heating.

Mark24635m ago

Are we actually allowed to talk about the fires yet? I mean, has the PM given his personal blessing for the conversation to begin? Or is it just too soon still?

marcusaureilius36m ago

Thought and prayers ffs

Scummo's nuremberg saluting in the house of the tongue talkers , pleading for a seat in the rapture.

Can it get worse?

Yes there's remnants of the east coast yet to burn.

Coming to a place near you over a summer of hell fire and brimstone.

daleaway41m ago

...And Australia is exporting its pollution:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/117907806/how-australias-bushfires-turned-new-zealands-snowcapped-glaciers-red

We do wish you wouldn’t. We liked the Southern Alps the way they were.

indelibleink41m ago

Oh Dog, you tried to tell them what was coming. The scientist have been trying to tell them.
The Greens tried to tell them. Greta tried to tell them. The school kids tried to tell them. Extinction Rebellion tried to tell them. Old people and young people all over the world have tried to tell them.
But the denial message paid for and delivered by Murdoch and the others of the 1% over-rode the millions of voices who could see what was the eventual unthinkable truth.

And the political lemmings believed the denials. They responded with fervour to the smug dismissal of the putrid pollies that kids should be in school learning to dig coal, Adani is a 'good' foreign Australian, that Extinction Rebellion are a bunch of unemployed 'terrorists' who'll smack a fine police officer horse and want to steal your weekend.

What price the weekend now? You can still drive your ute.... but you cannot go outside because of the toxic air, and there is nowhere to go because all the good places are burning.

43
In the early 1980's Hansen warned policy makers that the atmospheric CO2 concentration should not exceed about 350 ppm.

Didn't Hansen give this warning in 2008? See:
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2008/2008_Hansen_ha00410c.pdf

Before then I think he warned to not exceed 450 ppm, but maybe I'm mistaken.

1967 - Hansen warns Congress - but no number. Instead debate was about  what would happen if CO2 ppm doubled to 550 ppm.

2007 - 350 from which came 350.org

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/27/AR2007122701942.html?

Remember This: 350 Parts Per Million
By Bill McKibben
Friday, December 28, 2007
Quote
This month may have been the most important yet in the two-decade history of the fight against global warming. Al Gore got his Nobel in Stockholm; international negotiators made real progress on a treaty in Bali; and in Washington, Congress actually worked up the nerve to raise gas mileage standards for cars.

But what may turn out to be the most crucial development went largely unnoticed. It happened at an academic conclave in San Francisco. A NASA scientist named James Hansen offered a simple, straightforward and mind-blowing bottom line for the planet: 350, as in parts per million carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It's a number that may make what happened in Washington and Bali seem quaint and nearly irrelevant. It's the number that may define our future.

Twenty years ago, Hansen kicked off this issue by testifying before Congress th
at the planet was warming and that people were the cause. At the time, we could only guess how much warming it would take to put us in real danger. Since the pre-Industrial Revolution concentration of carbon in the atmosphere was roughly 275 parts per million, scientists and policymakers focused on what would happen if that number doubled -- 550 was a crude and mythical red line, but politicians and economists set about trying to see if we could stop short of that point. The answer was: not easily, but it could be done.

In the past five years, though, scientists began to worry that the planet was reacting more quickly than they had expected to the relatively small temperature increases we've already seen. The rapid melt of most glacial systems, for instance, convinced many that 450 parts per million was a more prudent target. That's what the European Union and many of the big environmental groups have been proposing in recent years, and the economic modeling makes clear that achieving it is still possible, though the chances diminish with every new coal-fired power plant.

But the data just keep getting worse. The news this fall that Arctic sea ice was melting at an off-the-charts pace and data from Greenland suggesting that its giant ice sheet was starting to slide into the ocean make even 450 look too high. Consider: We're already at 383 parts per million, and it's knocking the planet off kilter in substantial ways. So, what does that mean?

It means, Hansen says, that we've gone too far. "The evidence indicates we've aimed too high -- that the safe upper limit for atmospheric CO2is no more than 350 ppm," he said after his presentation. Hansen has reams of paleo-climatic data to support his statements (as do other scientists who presented papers at the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco this month). The last time the Earth warmed two or three degrees Celsius -- which is what 450 parts per million implies -- sea levels rose by tens of meters, something that would shake the foundations of the human enterprise should it happen again.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 04, 2019, 08:18:08 PM »
Latest from them:
Quote
450 million years ago, CO2 levels were between 2000 and 8000 ppm. Earth did not turn into Venus then, either. In fact there was an ice age.
Interesting, huh? It's been both warmer and colder with far higher CO2 levels than we are at now.
Sounds to me like CO2 levels don't control Earth's temperature as much as some would like us to believe.
Anyone want to take it?
"Sounds to me like CO2 levels don't control Earth's temperature as much as some would like us to believe." TOTAL & UTTER CRAP.

Read & Inwardly digest

You are being lazy, to the point of insufferably lazy. It took me less than 5 minutes to google the links. You've got some grey cells between your ears - use them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_evolutionary_history_of_life
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/500-million-year-survey-earths-climate-reveals-dire-warning-humanity
https://sci.waikato.ac.nz/evolution/AnimalEvolution.shtml#footontheland
Quote
Colonisation of the land

Fish continued to evolve during the Silurian period (440 - 410 million years ago). At the same time some groups of plants and animals took a major step as they colonised the land for the first time. We are not sure why this advance occurred, but it was probably the result of competition in the marine ecosystems, plus the opportunity to escape predators and the availability of new terrestrial niches.

Arthropods, which had ventured temporarily onto land 100 million years earlier, were the first animals to become more permanent colonists. Fossil footprints made in the sandy flats surrounding temporary lakes dating back about 420 million years have been found in Western Australia.

The arthropods were pre-adapted to life on land. By the time they moved ashore, they had already evolved lighter bodies and slim, strong legs that could support them against the pull of gravity. Their hard outer exoskeletons provided protection and would help to retain water, although the development of a waxy, waterproof cuticle was necessary for efficient water conservation.

Spiders, centipedes and mites were among the earliest land animals. Some of them were giants: the largest was Slimonia, the size of a man and a relative of the scorpions. This animal was still too big and too heavy and the walking legs too small to venture onto land for any length of time and so they lived in marginal marine (deltaic) environments.


45
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 04, 2019, 06:42:59 PM »
The Teslemming followers of fElon Musk are oh so similar to climate change deniers. Rather than deny the entire problems, the Teslemmings deny that it is a predicament because if we just paint it all a very thin layer of green alloy that fElon just invented, it will all be fine. No need to change lifestyle, just paint it fElon green, the color that solves all problems through lies and deceit.
Another post with no data - just howls of frustration and rage.

This thread is mostly about whether Tesla is going to succeed in becoming a major producer of EVs - as in n million (where n is not small) vehicles a year. It is true to say that a good many people have an emotional commitment in hoping for Tesla's success. It is also true to say that a good many people have an emotional commitment in hoping for Tesla's failure.

Of, at least to me, secondary importance, is the development of solar power - PV and batteries. The marketplace has a good number of alternatives. Though Tesla having its own independent battery production and sources of raw materials, plus synergy from EVs, batteries & solar, gives it a significant market advantage, if Tesla make a success of these products it is the icing on the cake.

I am beginning to suspect that though Musk will appear for the razzamatazz of the big events (e.g. new products, quarterly investor calls), we will see and hear from him somewhat less. SpaceX and Mars may be far more exciting to him. It is not Musk but other sources that are speculating on earlier model Y and semi production and the ramping up the solar roof workforce.

At the moment, Tesla is doing very nicely. Only one month more and we will see Qu4 sales and a revenue snapshot.

If Tesla is a roaring success does it get the Biosphere out of the shit? No.
Can a lunatic like Bolsonaro quickly do more damage to the Biosphere than all the benefits from Tesla's EVs and solar power? Yes.

But that is for a different thread.
______________________________________________________
ps: This cynic wonders who in China is sitting on Tesla's Licence to Sell - and how much do they want.

46
All still a bit too close for comfort.

Strong winds,
only 2 days food left and only because Ousland packed an extra 10 days rations at the last moment before starting.

Lots of big leads in the ice between them & safety.

Translated by Google....

https://www.outside.fr/mike-horn-aide-et-ravitaille-ce-soir-pour-terminer-son-expedition/
It is today, Wednesday, December 4, that the explorer Mike Horn and his partner Borge Ousland, both exhausted and thin, will be joined and helped by a team of two polar guides and adventurers. Enough to allow them to join the icebreaker "Lance", and put an end to their expedition.   

Polar cold, galleys, storm and chocolate punctuate the last days of the South African explorer on the pack ice. Mike Horn and his Norwegian friend Borge Ousland spend their 86th day trudging through the unstable ice on the North Pole. But as the arrival looms on the horizon, the galleys are piling up ...

"The more we see the end and the harder it is," admits Mike Horn on social networks. With only three days of food, the two adventurers play on the razor's edge. A handful of chocolate temporarily softens their morale but they still have to travel 90 kilometers with a broken sled (Borge's) to the icebreaker "Lance" as a storm looms on Wednesday night. Nothing good…

Two polar adventurers to the rescue

According to our source, Lars Ebbesen, member of the team of Borge Ousland, two Norwegian adventurous guides started skiing on their meeting this Tuesday at 17:53. This decision was bolstered by the storm on the pack ice on Tuesday, which is set to go on Wednesday. Bengt Rotmo and Aleksander Range have therefore descended from the icebreaker "Lance", caught in the ice of the pack ice where the thickness reaches 1.20 meters in some places. Knut Espen Solberg - explorer and polar guide - and Dr. Martin Skrove, members of Borge's team, are on board and overseeing the support expedition.

The two rescuers must travel 40 kilometers to join Mike and Borge party to meet them. The two adventurers also tackle 40 kilometers of skiing to make the junction. Not insignificant when you know that their daily average is only 15 kilometers. This Tuesday evening, at 22:55, Bengt and Aleksander had traveled 11 kilometers and this morning at 11:00, they had reached the geographical position 82'20 degrees North and 20'20 degrees East.

Borge's team, present on the icebreaker "Lance", provides a return of explorers Thursday evening or Friday, according to the evolution of the last storm that must touch them on Wednesday night. The call to a helicopter in case of force majeure is not excluded, even if the respective teams of Mike and Borge would prefer to respect the desire of the adventurers to complete their expedition as they had initially envisaged.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (December 2019 )
« on: December 04, 2019, 04:08:04 PM »
You always know that a linear fit is not good when the first half of the data are (mostly) above the trendline and the second half is (mostly) below it.
I suggest that there was not much trend on your chart until the beginning of the 90s, then you had a steep downtrend till cca 2010 and now you have a less steep downtrend since then
Don't matter - the only trend is down.

I posted a load of stuff on "when will the Arctic go Ice-Free" about outliers. Using the standard methodology (sort-of) I isolated the outliers for extent and volume and the linear regression fit much better. First 3 attachments (September volume only).

I also looked at trends in area, volume & thickness for September using unadjusted data. Attachment 4.

The only trend is down.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 04, 2019, 03:41:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,190,262 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 9,190,262    km2      
-307,310    km2   <   2010's average.
-544,906    km2   <   2018
-720,632    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    84    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    40    k   gain
Other Seas___    39    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    12    k   gain
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    10    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    13    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    25    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    9    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    27    k   gain

Daily gain 84 k, 16 k MORE than the 2010's average of 68 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 307 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 545 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 731 km2
- 2019 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.1  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days, -

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front.
________________________________________________________________________

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (December 2019 )
« on: December 04, 2019, 01:12:30 PM »
The PIOMAS 365-day trailing average volume continues to decline at around 3 km3 per day.

IFF (a big if) volume continues at around 1,000 km3 less than the previous year, late 2020 would see a new record low average.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019)
« on: December 04, 2019, 01:03:40 PM »
Yet again, this person does "have use for the updated regional data files" from Wipneus:

PIOMAS Volume as at 30 November 2019  10.349 km3 '000
The standard graphs and tables as I use for the JAXA extent data are attached.

Volume gain in 1st week of November well above average.
Volume gain in 2nd week of November well below average.
Volume gain in last 2 weeks of November well above average declining to average by end of the month..

2019 volume is still 3rd lowest in the satellite record, by 211 km3 above 2012, and 965 km3 above 2016, and less than 2018 by 1,104 km3.
_______________________________________________________________
The last table is a look at projections to the next maximum. Far too early to take it seriously.

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