Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - GoSouthYoungins

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 26
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 06, 2019, 04:17:03 AM »
As for believing that nobody needs personal vehicles? That is normally a position held by City dwellers and students who have 0% visibility of the real world.

Those of us who live in the country know different.

Most people who live in rural places don't own a car. First-worlders are extremely first-world-centric and struggle to understand how anyone could live without all the high energy luxuries they see as essential.

Approximately 1% of people who have ever lived have owned a car. So, cars are a super luxury and totally unnecessary.

But hey, Neil thinks his ride is an imperative, and he is never totally wrong.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 04, 2019, 05:41:22 PM »
This thread is such an eye opener. Many posters here follow the exact pattern of climate change deniers. No matter what you say, no matter how much logic and/or facts and/or proof you name, they will always counter with either non-sense, putting the messenger with the bad news into the corner to be a bad guy or asking aggressive questions that they know cannot be answered even though they're obvious but lay in the future and hence one has to wait till things have unfolded.

This really is the heart of it all. The Teslemming followers of fElon Musk are oh so similar to climate change deniers. Rather than deny the entire problems, the Teslemmings deny that it is a predicament because if we just paint it all a very thin layer of green alloy that fElon just invented, it will all be fine. No need to change lifestyle, just paint it fElon green, the color that solves all problems through lies and deceit.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 04, 2019, 05:35:26 PM »

A totally BK bank is reporting that a totally BK auto manufacturer is going to start delivering a new car in a few months according to the totally BK auto manufacturer's PR blog. Very exciting.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 04, 2019, 05:02:43 PM »
Rob, "Do you want to bet ?"

Sure. I bet it never happens. Just like the rest of the products Tesla has "launched" in the last 3 years.

OK dude. Please make up your mind : Is it "double the claimed $40k" ? Or is it "at least $60k" ?

Ok not-genius-Rob. There is a difference between the price they would sell the car for...(double the $40k claimed), and how much it would cost to make...(close to $60k). At least they is typically how businesses work. (I am however aware that Tesla is not really a business but instead more of a cash incinerator.)

Either way, show us your math on why Tesla cannot possibly offer this truck for $40k.

The starting prices for the X and S are about $80k. The cost for Tesla to make them is about $60k. There may be some aspects of the truck which allow Tesla to save considerable money versus the X and S, but there are also some elements of heavy trucks that cost A LOT more. So I consider it a wash.

Anyone who thinks the cybertruck will cost tesla $17k is delusional.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 04, 2019, 04:50:09 PM »
The Model3 was never going to be built, according to GSY. 

Lie, lie, lie, lie, lie. Just a total lie.

Then it was never going to be made in volume. 

Lie, lie, lie, lie, lie. Just a total lie.

Then it was never going to make a profit.

Tesla best 4 Qs in a row in the last 5 year resulted in a $330,000,000 LOSS. Average is about a billion dollar a year loss. Tesla doesn't make profits.

Then Tesla was going bust.

Tesla is going bust. They burn cash. You can burn a billion dollars year of other ppl's money for a while, but eventually ppl find a new incinerator.

Gigafactory 3 was never going to be built.

Lie, lie, lie, lie, lie. Just a total lie.

Then it would not produce a single car before the end of 2020.

Of course not! You believed they would be operational in May or some nonsense like that. I figured Tesla couldn't set up a factory WAY faster than anyone ever has, and OF COURSE I WAS RIGHT.

Now onto Giga4 though, right? LOL.

Giga1 30% operational.
Giga2 5% operational.
Giga3 0% operational.

GigaTotal 12% operational. WE NEED MORE CAPACITY. Giga4!!! LOL.

I'll wait to add the model Y production to the list of never happening.

That will be a future lie. Always good to be prepared for your next straw-man arguments.

I'll expect more Semi's to appear.

So, magic isn't real. Tesla needs to set up a production line to actually manufacture vehicles. They haven't yet. Nor do they have permits to do so. Nor have any plans been announced on how they would do so. On a "product" launched in 2017. The emperor has no clothes.

Compare the track records of Tesla commitments and GSY predictions.  I do not feel I am on a losing streak.

You couldn't be more wrong. Almost every one of "my false predictions" is a pure fantasy of yours which I never actually said. Meanwhile fElon spews nonsense constantly...and it is well documented...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 03, 2019, 01:15:26 AM »
Note for those interested in the cybertruck:

The cybertruck will never exist. The design does not make sense. Engineers were reportedly given 2 weeks to whip something up.

If it ever was built as show and sold, the cost would be about double the claimed $40k.

The components to make a truck a truck are heavy. In order to move those heavy components around takes a lot of battery power. (Significantly more power than moving a S or X). The basic truck component cost and battery cost would make the cybertruck cost at least $60k to build.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 03, 2019, 01:12:46 AM »

Meanwhile, here are TSLA’s current cars/products not in production:

-Roadster (unveil was 2yrs ago)
-Semi (unveil was 2yrs ago)
-Model Y (TSLA refuses to mention how many pre-orders they’ve received here)
-Cybertruck ($100 fully-refundable deposits on a car that will likely cost $60K, or  0.167%, is the equivalent of someone putting $1.67 toward an $1,000 i-Phone & apple calling it an order)
-FSD (to be FSD, TSLA would have had to achieve level 5 autonomy… they’re at level 2)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 30, 2019, 03:02:16 PM »
Bullshite all right GSY .
Its called research wacko. You use Dr google  type in the right question next thing you find out about stuff.
That you are incapable of doing so  means you are gibbering nonsense from ignorance not talking about any actual demonstrable  reality.
This is a science based site for informed people or those who wish to learn,  That you can not even manage to do basic research instead rely on ignorant gibbering tells me you should not really be here .

Oh, I should have research fElon's "new alloy"? What would I find out about bullshitium? Is it made from Martian minerals? Is it 10x hard than normal metals? 10x stronger? 10x sexier?

Researching fElon's absurd claims is a hobby for simpletons. A smart person can just point and laugh.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 27, 2019, 06:18:37 AM »
Now the cybertruck is called a fake.

"We’re creating this alloy at Tesla. Not a problem to create a lot of it, but we’ll need to come up with new body manufacturing methods, as it can’t be made using standard methods."

Ya it isn't fake. It is made out of a super secret super metal that nobody has ever worked with before. Very exciting. Not total bullshit.


From Luv my TSLA @MyTsla
Tesla is making these trucks out of rare earth alloy called "bullshittium".

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 23, 2019, 03:13:39 PM »
That hammer was totally real and made out of steel. It didn't do more harm to the white door because it was not properly used. If it was me swinging that hammer, I would put a hole to the white door and at the very least leave a mark on the stainless steel frame.

Whoa man, you can tell that it was made of steel? That is an impressive super power.

But no, it wasn't a real hammer. Maybe a dead blow hammer.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 23, 2019, 03:07:18 PM »
fElon's decision to "show off" the "bullet-proof" glass. Shows how much of a managerial moron he must be. Must be all "yes men" around him. Not a single person with their head on straight to tell the emperor he has no clothes.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 23, 2019, 03:04:06 PM »
That it will last for decades is the selling point.

Drive it on earth for a decade, then take it to Mars for the next decade. Muskian Cultists very smart.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 23, 2019, 03:01:33 PM »
Rivian’s R1T pickup starts at $69k.  For about that price, you could get a cybertruck with 2.9 second 0-60, more (500+ mile) range, and 50% more towing capacity.  The cybertruck is not just a pickup truck. It is a utility truck with sports car performance.

Actually you couldn't.

It isn't a utility truck. It isn't a sports car. It isn't really anything other than a stage prop and some made-up specs (including bulletproof)  ;)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 22, 2019, 02:46:07 PM »
Oh the fraud.

Fake sledge hammer.

Fake ATV.

Fake bulletproof glass.

Fake specs.

Fake product.

Taking reservation now.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 22, 2019, 02:39:14 PM »
Not a box on wheels but close. Much more powerful than the competition. Much more durable than the competition. Cost of operation of an EV. Possible 1 million mile life expectancy. Starting at 39,995.

As a work tool, this vehicle will be amazing.

This is a case of function over form. I love function over form. But I also love the form of this vehicle. What I need to know is the drag coefficient of this thing.

You have clearly never used a work truck.

The thing is a joke. If you still don't get it, may the lord have mercy on your silly soul.

The Semi was "unveiled" years ago and still doesn't exist. This truck thing broke on stage and is a total laughing stock.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 22, 2019, 02:36:28 PM »
Tesla is a Rorschach Test to see who can actually think for themselves and trust their eyes vs those who are just virtue-signally hollow-brains who let themselves get told what to believe.

Policy and solutions / Re: The Hyperloop
« on: November 14, 2019, 01:21:54 AM »
Its a fElon Musk idea. Total fiction. No working product. Semi, battery swap, super service, hovercraft, cyborg, alien dreadnaught, solar tile, pickup carrying a pickup, 7 seater model 3, 10x reuseable rocket.

I'm sure the list is waaaaaayyyy longer. But thats just off the top of my head.

Musk makes up nice sounding stuff. And he screams it from roofttops. He makes some money off the baffoons who buy into the impossible idea, but nothing comes of it.

Dr.Seuss at least made his clever nonsense rhyme.


Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 14, 2019, 01:17:40 AM »
We have a Europe wide energy market though.

Maybe I'm wrong and I'm a moron. But I'm pretty sure you are wrong, and you are the moron.

There is not some sorta magic European wide energy market.

I mean, especially for electricity. Which seems to be the point you are making.

Norway cant just sell its surplus hydro power to portugal. You believe in a world that doesn't exist. Maybe it should it should exist. Maybe we should advocate for it. But confusing that with WHAT IS, is childish, sad, and pathetic.

Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« on: November 14, 2019, 01:12:13 AM »
Big bricks and tunnel brace sections (upper left), likely made with the dig-site dirt, as promised.

This is the d*mbest thing ever.

I'm ever into earthworks. But this is the d**best thing ever.

Has boring company created a new drilling machine? No. Does the dirt the are digging up make for good rammed earth? No. This is the dumbest thing ever.

Who think that tunneling is the key to sustainability? Only the ****est ppl ever.

Bricks are basically free. The cost is in the transportation and resale. The dirt is nothing. Super nothing. That culttards think this is smart is the *um*best thing ever.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 14, 2019, 01:07:07 AM »
Only thing that is wondering me a bit is how and why he got the Chinese into the boat,
could be for technology transfer/know-how and the likes.

Duh. fElon is a perfect asset. Erratic drug-addict CEO "billionaire" with high level government top secret contracts who is financially illiquid! That is like a joke in the "how to recruit an asset" textbook, cuz it is way too perfect and the payoff is way too big.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 14, 2019, 01:03:49 AM »
We have had never make M3 in volume
We have had never make a profit
We have had Giga3 will never be built
We have had Giga3 will never produce a single vehicle

Just made up straw man nonsense.

Walking the walk / Re: Zero-Carbon Farming and Living via the Acorn Path
« on: November 11, 2019, 03:25:20 PM »
My wife read this how-to on acorns and their preparation on a site she occasionally visits (and said: Hey, aren't some of your Arctic buddies involved with that?). I don't know if it's accurate or complete.

Not sure about your arctic buddies. But your arctic foes are!

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 11, 2019, 03:16:43 PM »
If you want to know how fElon tries to silence critics....well there are so many ways. But a common one is to sue them. And John Oliver made a video about these things last night, so I thought I'd share.


Here is a nice TSLAQ thread from today about the same thing...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 11, 2019, 03:13:07 PM »
The required rescue of Solar City....

You are aware that fElon sold the acquisition as a business no brainer and promised future exponential growth and a new amazing product (fake roof tile).

It's total fraud. It is one of dozens of reason he is fElon. That you look at this whole saga and shrug and say, "whats the big deal", it insane and shows you to be a deranged person. I suggest you take a health dose of legal healthy dose of hallucinogens or go to a sweat lodge or spend 40 days in the desert. And rethink your life and your values.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 10, 2019, 03:11:59 PM »

What happens when you give fElon $1 Billion taxpayer dollars? He turns it into $75 Million for you in a few short years.

New York State spent $958.6 million to build Tesla Inc.'s solar panel factory in South Buffalo and buy a big chunk of the equipment inside.

Now, auditors are saying the building and all that equipment is worth just under $75 million

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 10, 2019, 03:03:01 PM »
I've never smoked anything, even a single cigarette.

I'm not sure I've told you this recently enough: YOU ARE SOOOOOO COOL.

GSY, apparently, has a clear understanding of the effects of mind altering substances.


Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 09, 2019, 12:46:04 PM »
That's how we roll in Germany. On Sundays, we meet in big townhalls and consume energy never produced. Great tradition!

It seems like you are making fun of the idea that produced energy and consumed energy are different.

Wind and solar are the most scale-able renewables but they are also notorious for producing energy at somewhat unpredictable times but more importantly on their own schedule.

If you had a magic solar beam array, and one day every the sun shot an incredible amount on energy at the beam, you could double or triple your annual energy production. But it would do basically nothing for the energy consumption mix or emissions at large.

There is not a proportional reduction in emissions relative to the increase in renewables.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 09, 2019, 05:16:24 AM »
This wait and see MOMENT has lasted 1,106 days. That is quite the MOMENT. Apparently Neil thinks the next 200 days are the crux. Whatever.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 09, 2019, 05:14:48 AM »
You also said that Tesla was not making a profit on models S and X.

The best 4 quarters Tesla has put together in the last 5 years add up to a $330 Million LOSS. WTF ARE YOU SMOKING?!? I know it's not #funding-secured. That stuff doesn't produce severe hallucinations.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 09, 2019, 05:11:25 AM »
German electricity come mostly from fossil fuels.


Lol. I guess I should have been more specific. Last year only 46% of German electricity production was from fossil fuels. BUT the majority of consumed electricity was from fossil fuels. Unconsumed electricity is totally pointless.

Also, the Biofuels are not considered fossil fuels BUT its mostly corn which burns as much fossil fuel energy in its production as the energy it produces. (It's also cow shit, which is even worse due to methane production.) So biofuels are probably actually even worse emitters than the energy equivalent fossil fuels.

And, nuclear is going bye bye.

So it really isn't bullshit. Most of the electricity consumed in Germany comes from fossil fuels. This might change in the next 5 years, but the nuclear phase out will make it tough.

You were right about one thing though. The cow manure part is the worst, and it is bullshit.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 04:43:28 PM »
Yet another "wait and see" moment.

Over three years since the "product" was "unveiled". It's a fraud. How long do you need to wait to figure that out? 10 years?  ???

This "wait and see" theory could be applied to anything false to make it just not true yet. What a load of intellectually dishonest crap. More pathetic 5-year-old-esque "thinking".

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 08, 2019, 02:21:48 PM »
As I commented to Neven, running a Tesla on main grid in the US would not meet the current EU regulations for g/km CO2.  Germany is at the upper end in the EU at 77g for an EV charging, on average, on the grid.

German electricity come mostly from fossil fuels. Also, you totally fail to respond to my point that EVERY step of EV creation and operates uses fossil fuels for all or most of the energy required.

As for products which have not even been invented yet?  Solar Roof 3?  Invented, manufactured, delivered in test samples.  Announced as a product to be ordered from the website with "short term" delivery times.

Solar Roof 1 was totally fake. Solar Roof 2 wasn't even fake, just never existed even as a concept. But Solar Roof 3 you have faith in. Okay.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 02:14:22 PM »
What will fraudsters do? Well, fraudy fraud of course.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 01:56:47 PM »
GSY, if you want to do something useful to prove your points about Tesla having no design advantage.

It is really ironic that your post was immediately after Neil's where he explicitly refuses to say why Tesla's battery configuration is so great AND is unreplicatable. (This is like a 5 year old who says they know something but when asked what it is they say, "I'm not going to tell you." It's pathetic.)

Oren, that you overlook Neil's nonsense but focus on my "lack of saying something useful", shows your bias.

Anyways....I do think Tesla probably has some an advantage in these areas. I don't pretend to know.

My position is that it doesn't matter and the other companies that have way more capital AND are profitable will be able to catch up on Tesla's various advantages are surpass them in all sorts of ways.  (Toyota spends more on R&D every year than Tesla takes in in revenue!) Meanwhile, Tesla burns cash and announces product launches for fake products. They are hopeless.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 08, 2019, 01:46:12 PM »
You will note I didn't need to bold that. Tesla does the bolding for me.

Announcing revolutionary products that you haven't invented yet is indeed bold. If that's butter's your bagel, fair enough. I think it is madness and clear fraud. One man's trash...

(Let's leave this for the other thread.)

As a consolation I watch Tesla and their excellent approach to EV and other FF free initiatives destroy you corrosive beliefs as time goes by..

EVs are an excellent approach to personal passenger vehicles. They are far from fossil fuel free. And they are far from helpful in fighting climate change. Every component is made with fossil fuel energy, from materials gathered using fossil fuel energy. And most of the electricity generation for EVs come from burning fossil fuels.

If you take climate change seriously, you should understand that we can't transition to a more populated and equitable world AND have EVs just replacing ICE vehicles while we hope to one day replace the fossil fuels so crucial to every step of the manufacturing and operating EVs.

You are probably old, and don't care. You want a fast luxury car and to be able to act like you are doing your part. For you people, Tesla is perfect.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 07:00:30 AM »
Remember remember, the 5th of November.

The day fElon flew from San Francisco to San Jose on his private jet.

(probably to save the environment)

It is about 30 miles. Commercial vehicles are extremely polluting per person. Private jets are outrageously polluting per person. The emissions are very heavily skewed towards the takeoff. A 30 miles flight is all takeoff (and landing). This fElon asshole burns more CO2 than any other person on the planet. He really is special. As are his followers.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 08, 2019, 04:11:40 AM »
You have blinkers on.  When we call you on it, instead of proving your point, you call us names and provide cherry picked figures.

A single example please.

Erm, let me see.

How about Tesla is going to fail in Jan 2019 and Giga3 is going to be a mud field when it fails?


Tesla cannot manufacture cars at a profit, not even one, they will have to keep borrowing forever and will eventually go bust?


Solar roof 3 is a fake and they will never ship any?

Granted that one needs a little time to play out....

For each of these predictions we were roundly abused for doubting you and called idiots and morons.

Tick Tock.

That's all you got? Seriously.

1)They should have filed long ago to keep the brand alive. Now it is liquidation.

1a)Let's see what happens when the 1 year lease ends.

2)I'm totally correct. Tesla never has manufactured cars at a profit. When they push costs and revenue forwards and backwards, they can create a profitable quarter or two. BUT THE BEST 4 QUARTERS IN A ROW THEY HAVE MANAGED IN THE PAST 5 YEARS (before they had practically any competition) WAS A $330 MILLION LOSS. THE AVERAGE LOSS IS JUST UNDER A BILLION ****ING DOLLARS.


Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 04:04:22 AM »
Sure GSY. Whatever you say.

To others,

Brute Force Algorithms:

Brute Force Algorithms refers to a programming style that does not include any shortcuts to improve performance, but instead relies on sheer computing power to try all possibilities until the solution to a problem is found.

They brute force the "packets of data".

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 08, 2019, 04:00:28 AM »
Renewables meet 50% of electricity demand on Australia's power grid for first time

...for about 10 minutes cuz it was sunny and the wind was blowing.

Coal will continue to decline. Gas won't.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 08, 2019, 03:53:41 AM »
I have a vague memory of a Europe-wide plan to build a network of ultra-high DC voltage transmission lines capable of shifting large amounts of power all around Europe as and when needed.

Meanwhile they are importing jihadis. Brilliant.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 03:51:19 AM »
Musk has said repeatedly that...

Oh the things that could be listed that Musk said repeatedly that turned out to but pure BULLSHIT!

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 03:49:25 AM »
You say this several times without any explanation, unless you mean that because they send "packets of data" that is not the approach.

See the Karpathy link I posted.  But yes, he uses the fact that Tesla only collects small packets of data as proof that they do not have sufficient data for a brute force approach. He is right that Tesla does not collect enough data for a brute force approach, but he is wrong about Tesla using a brute force approach.

What he is saying is that for their method to be effective they have to "brute force it" DESPITE not collecting enough data.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 03:48:05 AM »
I mock you for being unable to explain why Tesla's cell configuration is so superior and unreplicatable, and you respond with this...

Yep, because that is your belief, not that it is the truth.

If you do not understand the technology, do not understand patents and the way in which patents inhibit future design, then just say so.  Then we can ignore you.

With ground breaking technology there are two ways you can go.

1. Wait for someone else to do it then buy the tech from them to use
2. Develop the skill, analyse the situation and do it right.

Of course in scenario 1 you have to be pretty sure that they did the due diligence analysis and made all the right decisions.

With option 2, if you do the job properly, are pretty much first to market and patent your work, then theose who follow are constrained.

Why do all those follow on packs from other manufacturers have such poor heat management? You can be pretty sure Tesla patented the key items.

One thing we know about Tesla is that their innovative engineering capability is second to none.

The incumbent FF vehicle manufacturers let Tesla get there first.  Now they are paying the price.

But don't believe me.  Why bother.  I'm sure you have invented loads of things. Gone down to the depths of patent law and searches.  Worked for a patent renewal company and paid attention.

If you want to know why getting there first with the right tech is so important, just do some research on James Dyson. He can tell you all about how market incumbents play the game.

Now, please, feel free to tell me I have not explained anything.  I love a good laugh.

You don't even mention cells or batteries. You are a total joke. Everything you say is hollow, vapid, and shallow.

(And yes, the other companies will have to pay the price to make great batteries. Just like Tesla did. These companies actually make money and can afford it.)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 03:44:03 AM »
I even had to build RAID5+0 before it existed.

Has anyone ever told you how awesome you are Mr.Cool?

Then the total bullshit about needing Lidar for objects approaching.  Only if you can't understand how to code.

So why is Tesla still so far away if they don't need Lidar and simply need to "know how to code"?

Tesla's are taught to be "aware".

If you think Tesla's are "aware", you might be the most "unaware" person on this forum.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 03:36:48 AM »

$TSLAQ, this will be my final thread

The guy is completely sure Tesla will lose, but he is calling [sic] quits. Believe him if you want.

What is the antecedent of the "it" you forgot?

I have no problem with the guy explanation of what a neural network is and how they work. The explanation is good enough for twitter.

As if you could provide a better explanation?!? Tremendously unlikely.

Tesla is not taking a brute force approach.

You say this several times without any explanation, unless you mean that because they send "packets of data" that is not the approach.

The cars drive themselves today with 5 year old off the shelf hardware. Newer cars have a custom-built chip. It is mostly a software problem now.

No. They do not. In the simplest scenarios they are fine. Any complexity and they fail. What Tesla is currently capable of is 1000x easier than what needs to be done to have full self driving.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 03:10:57 AM »
Could Tesla be the Palm Pilot of self-driving EVs? I had one in the day, now it is all iPhone and Android.

That would be a best-case scenario where Tesla accelerated the advent of the electric car to such a level that a different maker can accelerate the transition even faster than Tesla. Let's hope for it.

It is extremely likely.

Palm Inc. wasn't riddled with fraud. And it didn't have a zealous cult following. So there are significant differences as well. Palm went fairly quietly. Tesla will super nova Enron style.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 07, 2019, 02:54:33 PM »
You have blinkers on.  When we call you on it, instead of proving your point, you call us names and provide cherry picked figures.

A single example please.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 07, 2019, 02:53:31 PM »
a little Twitter gold:

$TSLAQ, this will be my final thread

For reasons completely unrelated to Tesla, Elon, etc., I'm going to be winding down this account in the coming weeks. I'm still short, and I'll still be following $tslaq, but can no longer be an active participant

This is an autopilot thread
2/ A long while ago, someone asked everyone in $TSLAQ what their expertise is.

Mine is in big data. Really big data. Petabytes-per-month big data. At one point, I was the product manager managing a team that built one of the largest data clusters in the world.
3/ So, $TSLAQ, I want you to take the all leap of faith that I understand big data.

And I understand what big data unlocks, and how it unlocks it: "Artificial intelligence"

The rest of this thread is about what neural networks are, in layman's terms, and why $tsla is fucked
4/ Neural networks have been around for a long time. The concept is not new - the true SCIENCE of this computer science field was made in the 70s and 80s.

The problem back then was two-fold:
- Not enough data
- Not enough compute power
5/ What's changed?

First, we now have huge, huge quantities of unstructured data. Every phone has a camera with cloud-backed photo storage. Nearly every document sits on the cloud. Every phone call recorded.

And this explosion is more recent than some remember.
6/ Second, we have more compute power. Nvidia's GPUs, Google's TPUs, etc are so much more powerful than anything built in 2008. It's not even close. We've also started mastering distributed computing, where several chips can tackle the same problem at once.
7/ These innovations - more data, more power - are what unlock neural networks and other technical AI approaches.

And we're seeing their applications now:

Discovery is becoming an AI driven process in legal proceedings

Medical imaging and diagnosis

The Amazon Alexa
8/ And image recognition.

To use image recognition, and briefly explain "how neural nets work":

Think of neural nets as a series of data transformations that ultimately produce a statistical prediction for "what is this object"
9/ The AI element is that no human has to discern what those transformations processes are. The algorithm discovers them for you

In image recognition, the AI figured out that filters and edge detection are enormously helpful transformations in determining an object. Not a human.
10/ Here's the big takeaway though:

The more transformation layers, the more data. The more precision required, the more data. And it's exponential. It's explosive.

This is why AI is so limited today. And why it's a bubble. A "buzz word"
11/ So, how do autonomous cars handle this?

For all non- $TSLA companies, they bring back the human. Humans define 3 seperate systems that feed each other:

Object recognition
Object prediction
Maneuver execution
12/ Working backwards...

In order for a car to maneuver itself, it needs to know what the things around it are going to do, and how it should handle those in its maneuvers.

In order to predict what the things around it are going to do, it needs to recognize them.
13/ You need to be able to tell the difference between a bike with a person on it from a bike, or a fire hydrant. The first might start moving, the other two aren't going to move.
14/ Key point: this is a HUMAN definition, not AI one. I'll come back to this in a moment.

Humans defined:
Recognize objects, then predict what those objects will do, then drive

Already, the data and simulations required are extreme, because each layer needs very high accuracy
15/ So... Let's get back to $TSLA.

Why will $TSLA self driving fail?

First, because they're trying a brute-force neural network, which won't work.

A) They don't have enough data. See my previous threads; they aren't sufficient data from the cars

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Value Dissenter
Been saying this forever... I can't believe no analyst has asked "how many tb of training data does $tsla receive per day?"

They don't store the video data on the car. They don't transmit the data out of the car. $tsla is not in the race for autonomous driving. They lost.

Replying to @Trumpery45 and 3 others
6/ They have no on-board storage space (witness: the dash cam needs a USB stick) so they aren't collecting the gigabytes of data per mile that Waymo etc uses to train its systems

9:22 PM - Oct 15, 2018
Twitter Ads info and privacy
24 people are talking about this

B) Even if they were getting enough data, a brute-force neural network will demand a computer way more powerful than what's on the cars today. We're talking at least 20x-30x, probably closer to 100x
17/ LIDAR matters here.

LIDAR adds immense value in two ways:

A) Distance measurement
B) Seeing around corners

Just going to focus on A. Right now, Tesla is relying on cameras to tell how far away an object is.

Those cameras aren't precise enough, but even if they were...
18/ The data is the problem:

Drop AI and just imagine the algorithm.

On Frame A, you have to measure how far away the object is.

On Frame B, you have to again measure how far the object is, and use those changes to detect/predict movement in combination with your own movement
19/ This means that, at a bare minimum, the car must have every uncompressed, raw camera frame sitting in memory AND the frames of the past few seconds.

Cameras just aren't that good. Small pixel differences between a few frames isn't enough to distinguish how far an object is.
20/ LIDAR solves this data problem. It's an easy data feed that can quickly determine object distance and trajectory (used for object prediction).

Without it, the computer engineering problem is impossible. You can't manage and process the data on the vehicle with today's tech
21/ Without LIDAR, you're stuck with raw video data from cars on bumpy roads with low-resolution cameras loaded into a huge RAM buffer.

And from that, you'll waste a huge amount of compute time just trying to determine an object's position and movement.
22/ So, that's why I know that $TSLA will never achieve an autonomous car:

They don't and won't ever have the data required to do a brute force neural net.

And the current hardware on the vehicles is no where close to sufficient to pilot the car anyway.
23/ And there are so many other things I could talk about:
- Why mapping matters
- Computer depreciation is real
- Other AI approaches that aren't neural nets
- Data labeling problems

But the core thesis is this:
$TSLA has a fundamentally flawed approach to autonomous vehicles
24/ That's ultimately why I'm short long-term, and how I joined $TSLAQ.

Because I can absolutely guarantee that $TSLA will never, ever, ever achieve a fully self-driving car

@elonmusk has driven away all the talented AI and ML engineers that told him this.
25/ And thus $TSLA is left with second-tier computer scientists trying desperately to do what they know is impossible.

It's Theranos all over again.

Thanks, $TSLAQ. I'll still be around for a few weeks, and am happy to answer questions on this topic.

It's been fun!

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 07, 2019, 02:44:52 PM »
Here is the solution:

Pump water into the Great Basin in the US. Use the reservoir as a huge hydro battery.

Energy storage. Sea level rise mitigation. Elimination of Nevada. 3 for 1.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 26