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Messages - wili

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Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 07, 2019, 04:58:09 AM »
Yes, SOME life will likely survive pretty much whatever we throw at them...tardigrades come to mind.

But we are indeed in the midst of on of only six Mass Extinction Events since the evolution of complex life, and it's just gotten started...I don't think it is our place to minimize this world-life shattering event caused by us (specifically by modern industrial society).

And the whole matters more than the parts, so the well being of the entire community of life is more important that any one species within that community, even if that species happens to be one you cherish since you are part of it :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 05, 2019, 02:19:53 AM »
Well...Pythagoreanism is arguably one of the first attempts at science, as he/they tried to explain the physical universe (music, in particular) using mathematics.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 03, 2019, 09:25:41 PM »
Well, not quite evergrowing, but your general point is otherwise quite right, sadly.

Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 29, 2019, 11:29:46 PM »
Well, it only took like...what...ten posts basically repeating (more eloquently) my basic point before Hef finally conceded the point... :)

But in the midst, we got a nicely thought out and worded piece from Sam, which included centrally:

"...The fundamental basis of the current economic paradigm is growth.

The fundamental basis of all or nearly all religions is growth..."

This, I believe, is true.

But it's even more fundamental than that. The whole global culture (industrial, capitalist, consumerist...whatever combination you want to call it) is primarily geared to annihilation of life on the planet and destruction of the processes that have supported said life for millions to hundreds of millions of years.

There is pretty close to a one-to-one correspondence to who gets the most money and who is most centrally and powerfully involved in this destruction (with only a few exceptions that I am aware of).

High finance has always supported the fastest and biggest return for the buck, which nearly always has meant the fastest way to convert the natural integrity of the planet into local and/or global toxic waste. These are the folks that get some of the biggest pay on the planet.

Arms manufacturers are up there, too.

And so on down the line, with some getting good pay for just doing the very 'important' work of distracting us from the astonishing abyss we are throwing ourselves and the planet into so we don't stop consuming or start revolting....

Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 28, 2019, 05:37:11 AM »
Am I missing something?

None of the lines in his graph are pointing downward, so they do not indicate a decrease in the rate of growth.

Perhaps the rate of acceleration of increase is not increasing. If you want to squeeze some kind of comfort out of that, be my guest.

But maybe someone who has taken math more recently than 45 some years ago should chime in here before I embarrass myself further?? :)

The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: November 22, 2019, 09:23:38 PM »
Slight problem with that thesis--millions more voted for Clinton than for Trump.

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: November 05, 2019, 03:05:44 PM »
Ideally, of course, the government is in the hands of the people, and (ideally again) no one person has extraordinary influence over government if monetary power were kept fairly equal.


The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 05, 2019, 03:01:54 PM »
Me too. I remember them being animals. The rabbit, as I recall, could also hear things from a very far distance. The moral of the story is now lost to me, though.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 05, 2019, 05:03:22 AM »
"Look Far Enough and You'll See the Back of Your Head"

This is not a new idea. I remember talking about it with my nerdy friends in HighSchool in the very early '70s (friends who went on to  become astrophysicists, mathematicians, and computer program designers, while I wallowed in the humanities :) ).

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: November 05, 2019, 04:42:33 AM »
"I don’t think we should concede the term “neoliberalism” to the brutish establishment using state power to redistribute wealth from the haves to the have-nots."

Did he get that last part switched around, or am I missing something here?

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: November 05, 2019, 04:36:04 AM »
"Beats clay tablets..."

Really? Wouldn't we need to wait 5-6000 years to know if that's true?

Clay tablets are at once immediately accessible (assuming you know the script and the language...which...we're all up on our cuneiform and Sumerian grammar, right?), and yet also has proven to be extremely durable (unless crushed into dust by the US stupidly and needlessly launching multiple invasions of the areas where these ancient civilizations evolved).

But yeah, you can fit a lot of useless, stupid movies on the glass versions...whether distant future generations will be impressed by this we will never know, but I have my doubts.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 21, 2019, 05:04:33 PM »
I tend to agree with @socketwench:

I don't want self-driving cars.

I want boring things like public transit that comes so regularly you don't have to check a schedule.

...I want cities that aren't built around [f'n] cars-as-default.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 17, 2019, 02:41:44 PM »
Wouldn't that depend also on the quality of the ice? How salty or slushy it is, for instance?

The rest / Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: October 17, 2019, 05:33:44 AM »
oren wrote: "...denial in disguise..."

That's why I've long called him a 'crypto-denialist'

vox quoted John Oliver:

"...Donald Trump nominated former AccuWeather CEO Barry Myers to lead the National Weather Service in 2017.

Bogged down by conflicts of interest and a labor department investigation into AccuWeather’s culture of sexual harassment, Barry Myers’s nomination has stalled for two years in the Senate; if they don’t approve him by the end of 2019, Trump will have to resubmit his name. Which prompts the question: “Why not find another guy?” Oliver ranted.

“Any other guy! Except of course, for that to happen, Trump would have to do stuff, know stuff and think workplace harassment is a bad thing, and none of us should be holding our breath on that.”

Watch out, vox. Don't you know that around here the gospel is that the real enemy is the corporate Democrats!! :) :)

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: October 12, 2019, 07:08:01 PM »
I don't follow.

If this is mostly from ag products, where is the carbon sink. Maybe in the areas converting to no-till it could be, but where they are practicing traditional modern ag practices, there will be very little if any carbon sink...more likely carbon loss from degraded soils.

But perhaps I'm missing something here?

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 04, 2019, 06:19:28 PM »
Thanks for that, vox...glad to hear it's doable!  :o

Contrary to the very well publicized facts presented by the WH itself, 40% of Republicans still don't believe that Trump mentioned Biden or his son in his call to the Ukrainian President.

How can a democracy operate when so many just willfully believe things that are contrary to the facts?

In other news:

There is a belief that the impeachment inquiry hurt Republicans in the 1998 midterm elections. That may be true, but this polling suggests the situation with Clinton and Trump are very different. Impeaching Clinton was far less popular than impeaching Trump is today. ..

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 02, 2019, 09:28:45 PM »
Follow up on a study posted earlier that showed that countries with large wealth gaps are more likely to move toward authoritarian leadership:

Top 1% Gained $21 Trillion in Wealth Since 1989 While Bottom Half Lost $900 Billion

"The top one percent owns nearly $30 trillion of assets while the bottom half owns less than nothing."

Yup, he raised $25 m in the last quarter, and none from Wall Street.

But the headline is technically wrong, since Trump is also a candidate, and he raised $125 m in the last quarter.

People on both sides want to buy this office, but Trump is the one with the most backers who have the deepest pockets.

The rest / Re: Political theatre/wrestling
« on: October 02, 2019, 01:31:36 AM »

So what. A news organization got a detail in a story wrong, and then corrected the story. It happens pretty much every day. If you or Dore are going to jump up and down every time that happens, you're gonna get sore leg muscles from repetitive motion sickness! :D

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 02, 2019, 12:45:20 AM »

Blumenthal optimistic about GOP support in Senate for impeachment
Privately, Republican senators are 'deeply troubled' by events, he says

Former Senator Jeff Flake caused a stir Saturday when he amended Republican consultant Mike Murphy's comment that 30 GOP senators would vote to impeach President Donald Trump if they could keep their votes secret. "That's not true," the former Arizona senator told Slate's Mary Harris. "There would be at least 35."

Why Mitch McConnell Can’t “Garland” the Impeachment Inquiry
The presiding officer in an impeachment case is actually the chief justice of the United States.

Sooo, Mitch can't keep it from coming to the Senate, and a majority want to see Trump impeached. None of us know what is going to happen. But we are in unprecedented times in many ways.

Permafrost / Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« on: October 02, 2019, 12:18:43 AM »
Thanks, Ken. Are there any specific findings in there that particularly stand out to you?

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 01, 2019, 10:18:47 PM »
Don't assume the Senate would *never* remove Donald Trump

Sen. Bernie Sanders believes ‘incredibly corrupt’ Pres. Trump should be impeached

Since Pelosi formally announced her intention to initiate impeachment inquiries into Trumps nefarious activities, his approval ratings (at 538) have dropped from ~43% to 41.5% (similarly at Realclear) it certainly doesn't seem to be making him more popular. As Bernie, in Neven's/Dore's carefully edited clip noted again and one can know what will happen in this process for certain. As Bernie also noted, and as most people could clearly see, the grounds for Clinton's impeachment were absurd to the extreme, basically prevaricating about some consensual sex. So of course he got a lot of sympathy. The charges and really what we already know are far more serious here.

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 30, 2019, 09:59:51 PM »
Steve writes: "We shouldn't pigeon-hole all poor individuals as the being the same..."

But then immediately turns around and pigeon-holes every poor person as being the same: "What poor person doesn't want to be less poor? "


The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: September 30, 2019, 02:06:44 PM »

Did Neven just 'hoist me on my own petard'!  :o

Even far-right Republicans are starting to get disgusted with Trump.

Again, I am with Sanders and AOC and most others on the non-corporate left of the Dems in calling for impeachment.

Those of you against it are aligning yourselves with the likes of former WSJ opinion writer David Brooks.

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: September 30, 2019, 06:13:04 AM »
Up until about the '80, the poor generally had healthier diets, too. Rice and beans and greens is a pretty darn healthy basis for a diet. But with McDonaldization of cheap food and various aspects of the ag bill pushing carbohydrate calories over fruits and veggies, things went down hill fast.

The Powell Memo (or Manifesto) is said to have been the turning point in the super rich deciding to take over society more completely than they had done up to that point.

The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: September 30, 2019, 05:23:50 AM »
Lotsa stuff that has never happened before is happening pretty much every day on many fronts...

'It has not happened before, therefore it can never happen...' is, I'm pretty sure, some kind of logical fallacy, but I can't think of the formal name of it right now, and my search engine seems to be on strike right now! :)

(I've never written that last statement before, by the I guess it is impossible that I just did now!! :) :) :) )

ETA: Ah, found it. It seems to be a variation on Normalcy Bias:


And things do seem to be shifting rather quickly indeed. The congressional Republicans have so far presented a fairly unified front in their support of Trump, pretty much whatever he did. But now, after Trump essentially called for a civil war, at least one Republican Representative (so far), Adam Kinzinger, has called the 'president's' statement 'beyond repugnant.' We'll see where this goes, both on the street and in the congress...but it is hard not to notice that, again, a lot going on here is pretty f'n un-precedented.

The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: September 29, 2019, 09:13:46 PM »
Poll: Majority of Americans say impeachment inquiry into Trump is necessary

"...Among Independents, 49% approve and 51% disapprove, the poll found..."

(Which is a statistically insignificant difference.)

The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: September 29, 2019, 03:59:40 PM »
The tides are shifting quickly.

"...increases in support for impeachment ...The Morning Consult poll saw an increase from 66 percent to 79 percent among Democratic voters, 33 percent to 39 percent among Independent voters, and 5 percent to 10 percent among Republican voters..."

Engaging in a very well justified lawful constitutional process that was designed by the founders to curb abuses of power in the highest office in the land is far from 'getting into slime.'

It is, in fact, a constitutional and patriotic duty. And it is very sad, indeed, that it has come to the point that such ultimate measures now must be taken in the face of such overwhelming corruption.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 29, 2019, 03:32:30 AM »
Yeah, I think that's called 'whataboutism,' and its a poor attempt at dodging blame, whoever uses it.

(Context, for those who don't memorize every line of every story they ever read about Trump:

"On election interference, Trump told Lavrov and Kislyak he was not concerned about Russian meddling because the United States did the same in other countries"

The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: September 29, 2019, 02:05:40 AM »
A new poll from NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist found that 49 percent of Americans now approve of impeachment

Republican support for impeaching Trump doubled in the past few days amid escalating Ukraine scandal

Most Americans support impeachment if Trump pressured Ukraine

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: September 28, 2019, 03:37:09 PM »
"We should have marched on the streets demanding change 30 years ago instead of sitting and waiting for somebody to fix everyting."

Well, some of 'us' did.

The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: September 28, 2019, 03:52:55 AM »
Good point, Steve. Terry, generally quite astute about many things, just seems to be oddly off and oddly obsessed about this one.

Some men do seem to be quite put off kilter by strong, smart women, I guess...

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 27, 2019, 09:46:58 PM »
"Almost anything that has increased in recent decades could be “correlated” with climate change.  That does mean there is any connection.  Teen suicides are on the rise, but I doubt there are a result of global climate changes."

Yes, correlation, of course, by itself, does not prove causation. But for your particular example there is other evidence that there may, in fact, be causation going on between increased suicides and increased numbers of extremely hot days:

Climate Change May Cause 26,000 More U.S. Suicides by 2050

Unusually hot days have profound effects on mental health and human physiology.

Yes, thanks kas, and nan, too! I just found out that my daughter is going with friends.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 27, 2019, 09:07:18 PM »
Yes, Tom.

Clinton's impeachment is exactly the same as the one going on now in every conceivable way, and history always plays out exactly the same way each point there, buddy!! /sarc

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 27, 2019, 03:42:54 AM »
Soooo, I guess those of you who think impeachment is stupid must think that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders are idiots, and have been for two some years. Right?

Oh, and Amy Goodman, too, among many, many other strong, brave progressives...

The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: September 26, 2019, 09:32:49 PM »
Terry wrote: "Bernie the Kike and Harris the nword won't be spoken out loud (by many)..."

The more we coarsen the dialogue, the more likely it is that they will be.

If you want to be part of moving the discourse in that direction, I guess there's nothing I can do to stop just doesn't strike me as a good, or particularly moral, idea.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 26, 2019, 05:47:50 AM »
This non-corporate Dem seems to be ready for impeachment:

Ocasio-Cortez on impeachment: 'I think the ground has shifted'

...Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said Wednesday the “ground has shifted” in terms of support for a possible impeachment of President Trump.

The freshman congresswoman said new allegations about Trump asking Ukraine for information on former Vice President Joe Biden are “incredibly serious and urgent.”

“I think the ground has shifted,” Ocasio-Cortez said Wednesday on CNN. 

Ocasio-Cortez told host Chris Cuomo the new allegations are more pressing than previous allegations of Trump’s misconduct in part because "this is about something that is going to happen."

“We have the opportunity to act now to prevent a profoundly destabilizing action,” she added.

The congresswoman said it is important to continue investigating other violations too...

Also: New Poll Shows Majority of Americans Support Trump Impeachment if President Suspended Ukraine Aid Over Biden Inquiry

If it's found that Trump did use his presidential power to force a foreign leader to help take down a political rival, 55 percent of U.S. adults said they would support removing him from office, according to a recent YouGov survey.

Forty-four percent of those polled said they'd "strongly support" removing Trump if the allegations are true, while another 11 percent said they'd "somewhat support" it.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 26, 2019, 04:23:05 AM » couldn't make this stuff up. It's beyond farce. Even the show Veep wouldn't put that in their plots, since it would seem so improbable and implausible...but there it is.


GOP operative now thinks there are enough Republican Senate votes to convict and remove Donald Trump

Republican operative Mike Murphy, who has worked for the likes of John McCain and Mitt Romney and clearly has connections in the Republican Senate, appeared on MSNBC today and said that according to his sources, if a secret ballot were to be held, as many as thirty Republican Senators would vote in favor of Trump’s removal if articles were sent over from the House...

The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: September 26, 2019, 04:07:42 AM »
On the other hand:

“The Dem House will impeach. And then the GOP will spend an entire election year explaining why the Senate won’t convict. An election year defending this? That’s not a change? Hell just got hotter for the GOP in the age of Trump.”

‘Hell just got hotter’: GOP strategist explains why impeachment will be a disaster for Republicans

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 25, 2019, 08:32:35 PM »
Thanks, Tom. I just thought maybe you were well acquainted with a number of folks that fit that description and may have an idea about how they tick.

I have an uncle who was a research scientist in hematology and later a dean of a major medical school, so very much a lover of science in most regards, but he still (now in his 90s) does not accept the science of AGW.

His ideology just seemed to be too much of a blinder in this case, apparently.

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: September 25, 2019, 08:17:42 PM »
Wow! We are such f'n manipulable, impressionable twits!

Such pattern recognition impulses were obviously adaptive on the whole over our evolutionary journey...maybe not so much now?

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 25, 2019, 07:53:09 PM »
I'm not sure whether it was Tom or someone else that first posted this, but I'd like to hear some of Tom's reflections on it:

Every Group Except Older Republicans Is Concerned About Climate Change
Most Americans want the U.S. to take a global leadership role on climate change, but only about a quarter think the country is doing so.

As an older (I assume, perhaps wrongly?) Republican who is bucking this trend, perhaps you could give us insights into why so many from this segment seem so intent on ignoring science. Thanks ahead of time.

The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: September 25, 2019, 07:47:00 PM »
Thanks, nan.

I should know more about this stuff. A highschool friend of mine, who I used to talk with about this stuff back when neither of us knew much about it, went on to help in the discovery of the Higgs boson 'God Particle.' I have obviously not kept up!  :-\

The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: September 25, 2019, 06:28:32 PM »
I'm out of my depth here, but isn't gravity a bit different from the others...not really a 'force,' but a  'curvature of spacetime caused by the uneven distribution of mass' as wiki puts it.

Did they used to think there was a 'gravitron' particle? For some reason I remembered something like this, but when I searched, all the came up was a carnival ride by that name!  :o

Anyway, thanks for getting me to look around, because I also found the following passage in the wiki page answered a question I posed to my high school physics teacher way back in the '70s, who had no answer:

Speed of gravity

In December 2012, a research team in China announced that it had produced measurements of the phase lag of Earth tides during full and new moons which seem to prove that the speed of gravity is equal to the speed of light.[43]

This means that if the Sun suddenly disappeared, the Earth would keep orbiting it normally for 8 minutes, which is the time light takes to travel that distance. The team's findings were released in the Chinese Science Bulletin in February 2013.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: September 25, 2019, 05:34:06 AM »
Cohen's songs used to seem rather dark to they just seem like accurate reportage on the state of things:

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 25, 2019, 01:14:12 AM »
"...inflate the Trump vote..."

Can you guys really do no better than rehashing the idiotic blather that mindless tv pundits spew?

The number of ways this is different than Clinton are so myriad...I don't even know where to start.

I won't bother, since you all don't really seem interested in a serious conversation about all this.

How can people think so clearly about climate and Arctic ice, yet have such shallow (nicest word I could conjure up at the moment :) ) 'analyses' of these matters?

The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: September 25, 2019, 01:04:41 AM »
Soooo, if we thought that Booker or Harris were likely to be the nominees, should we start constantly repeating the 'n' word here, because, hey, everybody should have to get used to it, since that's what at least some of Trump's followers will be using?

I still thing Bernie is more likely to win, so should I constantly refer to him as Bernie the Crazy Kike, so that we can all get inured to the slurs??

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 25, 2019, 12:14:16 AM »
Ummmm, I would call it more of a constitutional duty.

Time will tell if it was a political mistake.

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