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Messages - Juan C. García

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 24, 2019, 05:51:47 AM »
Pragma, thank you.  But all the credit has to go to the NSIDC, they can be obtained here:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-comparison-tool/

I think they are amazing too, and I am glad to bring them before this forum if they have not previously around.
They are great, so thanks NSIDC for this work and also, thanks Pagophilus for let us (me?) know about this graphs!  :)
(I think I saw them before, but I didn't remember...)
______________________________

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 23rd, 2019:
     9,658,561 km2, a drop of -69,506 km2.
     2019 is 5th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 23, 2019, 05:44:19 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 22nd, 2019:
     9,728,067 km2, a drop of -86,513 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

3
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: June 22, 2019, 05:33:29 PM »
"Recent scorching temperatures in Kuwait and Pakistan confirmed as third and fourth hottest on Earth".

Quote
Notably, the WMO list of highest global temperatures does not include a 129.2 degree temperature (54.0 Celsius) recorded in Furnace Creek at Death Valley, Calif., on June 30, 2013. But there is a reason.

That location was even hotter in 1913 when it reportedly hit 134 degrees (56.7 Celsius). This temperature is recognized as the hottest recorded on Earth. But some experts question its validity.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/06/18/recent-scorching-temperatures-kuwait-pakistan-confirmed-third-fourth-hottest-measured-earth/?utm_term=.89a064c0b701&wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1
Just an informal heat record, but coming from an accredited newspaper in Mexico (original news in spanish, translated with "Google Translate"):
Quote
Researchers warn of high temperatures in Morelos ... up to 60 degrees Celsius!

Researchers from the Center for Biological Research (CIB) of the Autonomous University of the State of Morelos (UAEM), detected in the southern region of the state records of abnormal temperatures of up to 60 degrees Celsius, which, they said, already caused alterations in the habitat of the area.

The head of the educational program of the Master of Natural Resources of the CIB, Rubén Castro Franco, said that the main factors of these records are the extensive drought, the change of soil for the production of agave, the cutting of trees and climate change.

Regarding the logging, he accused that it was encouraged by the state government to allow the planting area of ​​the plant to increase.

"Even deforestation was favored by the government with programs that allowed the expansion of the agricultural frontier to plant, for example, the agave to produce tequila, which caused the loss of biodiversity," he explained.
https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/alertan-investigadores-por-altas-temperaturas-en-morelos


4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 22, 2019, 02:45:02 PM »
If I have it right, then in these sunny conditions, then it would seem reasonable to assume that this smoke over the Laptev is helping preserve the ice.  Happy to be corrected!
I think that on the Laptev, you might be right. But the smoke is entering the Arctic and there are other places with low pressure. At the end, the smoke will make the ice darker on some place in the Arctic.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 22, 2019, 05:43:34 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 21st, 2019:
     9,814,580 km2, almost a century drop: -97,827 km2.
     2019 is 6th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 21, 2019, 06:29:25 AM »
The ASI extent summer cliff has started: 2019 must have drops on the order of 81 to 95K km2 on the following 35 days, to follow the 2010's average extent.

Obviously, some drops will be less than that and others will be century drops.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 21, 2019, 05:47:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 19th, 2019:
     9,972,882 km2, a drop of -63,998 km2.
     
June 20th, 2019:
     9,912,407 km2, a drop of -60,475 km2.
     2019 is now 6th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

8
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: June 20, 2019, 08:57:30 PM »
"Recent scorching temperatures in Kuwait and Pakistan confirmed as third and fourth hottest on Earth".

Quote
It hit 129 degrees (53.9 Celsius, plus or minus 0.1 degrees uncertainty) in Mitribah, Kuwait, on July 21, 2016, and 128.7 degrees (53.7 Celsius, plus or minus 0.4 degrees uncertainty) in Turbat, Pakistan, on May 28, 2017.

“The Mitribah, Kuwait temperature is now accepted by the WMO as the highest temperature ever recorded for the continental region of Asia,” the organization wrote in a statement. It continued, “The two observations are the third (tied within uncertainty limits) and fourth highest WMO-recognized temperature extremes.”

Notably, the WMO list of highest global temperatures does not include a 129.2 degree temperature (54.0 Celsius) recorded in Furnace Creek at Death Valley, Calif., on June 30, 2013. But there is a reason.

That location was even hotter in 1913 when it reportedly hit 134 degrees (56.7 Celsius). This temperature is recognized as the hottest recorded on Earth. But some experts question its validity.
...

It is a similar story for the planet’s second-highest recognized temperature, which is 131 degrees (55.0 Celsius) from Kebili, Tunisia, set July 7, 1931, which also is Africa’s hottest temperature. This record has “serious credibility issues,” according to Christopher C. Burt, an expert on extreme weather data.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/06/18/recent-scorching-temperatures-kuwait-pakistan-confirmed-third-fourth-hottest-measured-earth/?utm_term=.89a064c0b701&wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 20, 2019, 06:17:05 AM »
ADS JAXA is 45 minutes late (data until June 18th.)
I appreciate if some else makes the post.
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 06:11:22 AM »
Look at both the extent and area charts for Beaufort.  They both jumped up.
It is true that Beaufort extent and area jump up, so I think that Michael Hauber opinion is valid, even that we could disagree with what he thinks.
Please be respectful in posting your comments.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 19, 2019, 05:43:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 18th, 2019:
     10,036,880 km2, a drop of -68,496 km2.
     2019 is now 6th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 18, 2019, 05:44:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 17th, 2019:
     10,105,376 km2, a drop of -43,531 km2.
     2019 is 5th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: June 17, 2019, 06:13:31 PM »
Clueless, but went for Aug 15th-31st. At least I'm with the majority!
+1 (I first vote and then saw the comments, that is, I didn't copy to vote with the majority  ;) ).
The true is that I am not sure that it will be open this year.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 17, 2019, 05:48:05 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 15th, 2019:
     10,187,233 km2, a drop of -25,867 km2.
     
June 16th, 2019:
     10,148,907 km2, a drop of -38,326 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 16, 2019, 04:34:57 PM »
University of Bremen link https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/ still not operational.

In dire need of a pretty picture of Jun 15 sea ice, I looked and found

https://www.meereisportal.de/en/seaicemonitoring/sea-ice-observations-from-satellite-measurements/current-sea-ice-maps/

which is also University of Bremen.

Gerontocrat, I very much appreciate such links. Is there a way to collect them and make them permanently and easily accessible here in the forum, maybe vía a dedicated thread?
Neven has the Bremen AMSR2 concentration map (on ASI Graphs):
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 16, 2019, 05:41:57 AM »
I cannot access the ADS-NIPR (JAXA) page.  :-\
Can someone get the data?

Thanks!

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2019, 05:44:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 14th, 2019:
     10,213,100 km2, an increase of 6,019 km2.
     2019 is now 3rd lowest on record (and could become 5th tomorrow).
     (2012 highlighted).

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 14, 2019, 06:09:28 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 13th, 2019:
     10,207,081 km2, an increase of 14,577 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

_____________
I had a mistake on the calculations yesterday. An [unexpected] increase today, but 2019 is still the second lowest on record.
Oren is right in his forecast. Congrats!
I got this funny feeling 2019 will manage to squeeze between 2012 and 2016 on that date...



19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 13, 2019, 05:59:04 AM »
What I forecasted:
2019 needs to drop an average of 47.2 K km2, to become the lowest on record on June 13th. Will it happen? Today’s drop of 44 K km2 is only 3.2K km2 lower of what it is needed.

I think that 2019 can be the lowest on record on June 13th. Any bets?

What Oren forecasted:
I got this funny feeling 2019 will manage to squeeze between 2012 and 2016 on that date...

Seems that Oren will be right. We will know tomorrow. ;)
Edit: 2019 needs a drop of -91,868 km2 to become the lowest on record tomorrow or needs a drop of -27,385 km2 to become the 3rd. lowest on record.
Hard to get them. Surely, Oren will be right.


[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 12th, 2019:
     10,192,504 km2, a drop of -41,133 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 12, 2019, 08:09:23 AM »
In respect to the comparison between NSIDC and ADS (JAXA), I think that NSIDC usually has more ice than JAXA. Even that I haven't check NSIDC daily values (that have to be smaller than the 5-day average), for June 10th NSIDC has a 5-day average of 10.9 M km2, while ADS (JAXA) had 10.28 M km2.

I am confident that the NSIDC 1-day value is not as low as JAXA.
P.S.: I already check NSIDC 1-day value for June 10th, 2019: 10.767M km2.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 12, 2019, 07:50:58 AM »
Juan and gerontocrat, thank you both for all the work you do to keep us updated on the area and extent numbers!

I stay up late every night to see Juan's post, and gerontocrat's follow up is the first thing I check every morning when I wake up. 

I have a question for you concerning a tweet today from a well respected PhD climatologist in Alaska.

As you can see below, he says 2019 moved into number 1 on June 10. I know you two use JAXA extent and NSIDC area.  He is talking about NSIDC extent. I'm surprised it differs so much from JAXA.

Have you ever compared the relative difference between the JAXA and NSIDC numbers to see how much they disagree?  I'm talking about only extent. 

I understand the two satellites have different resolution and come with different numbers.  But, I would expect those numbers to be consistent across each year.   It is strange to me that NSIDC sees 2019 as the lowest, when JAXA stills sees 2016 with a decent sized lead. 

If you have, I would be interested to hear what you found. 

Thanks again!
You are welcome, Rod.  :)
I haven't follow NSIDC lately. So I only have to say that I am surprise to see this 2019 lead, versus all the other years, even with the 5-day average.

Thank you for the information!

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 12, 2019, 06:06:19 AM »
There will be a storm in Beaufort. But at the same time, East Siberian Sea and Laptev will have temperatures around 5°C. Both don't look good.

So, an extent decrease in ESS and Laptev, at the same time than an extent increase in Beaufort?


P.S. Beaufort storm doesn't look that powerful now. Or I am wrong on my perception?

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 12, 2019, 05:41:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 11th, 2019:
     10,233,637 km2, a drop of -44,493 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

24
I voted for bin Jun 6-10.

Well that certainly wasn't very haphazard of you. Please could you be a little more random in your guesses? Otherwise I'll be asking Neven to change you name to something more suitable. e.g. "NotVeryHapHazard".
There is not a bin Jun 6-10.
But lucky you! Completely right in the middle!  ;)

25

Come on guys, we need 100 votes at least!!!
At the moment, there are just 80 votes in the list.

The plea is working.  We are up to 90.
Only 40 min. left to vote.
95 votes...

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 11, 2019, 05:43:39 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 10th, 2019:
     10,278,130 km2, a drop of -40,411 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

27
I vote 4.00 to 4.50M km2.
I am changing my vote to 3.75 to 4.25M km2.

Juan, welcome to my bin.
This is going to be the right one…  ;)
Or not???

Come on guys, we need 100 votes at least!!!

28
Thanks for opening the polls again, Juan!  :)

Until when can votes be cast? I'll probably wait until the last moment.

edit: Silly me, it's right there under the poll: June 11th.

My June predictions are as follows:
JAXA: 3.5 to 4.0, medium
NSIDC: 4.0 to 4.5, medium

Hi Neven.
Should we assume that these are your votes?
Only one day left to vote!
Everyone: Don't forget to do it!  ;)

29
I vote 4.00 to 4.50M km2.
I am changing my vote to 3.75 to 4.25M km2.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: June 10, 2019, 03:32:47 PM »
My June predictions:

JAXA: 3.5 to 4.0, médium confidence
NSIDC: 3.75 to 4.25, médium confidence

31
i was looking at the same but didn't find a time stamp ...
It seems that Worldview doesn't have a timestamp because it makes the full Arctic picture with several images taken at different times. It has been starting a new day with Chukchi and Beaufort Seas.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 10, 2019, 05:43:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 9th, 2019:
     10,318,541 km2, a drop of -42,751 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

33
And Worldview for June 10th. (At this time, only appears Chukchi and Beaufort Seas).

34
Bremen false color map...

35
Only two day left, to vote or change your vote!  ;)

36
Only two day left, to vote or change your vote!  ;)

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 09, 2019, 06:58:36 AM »
Are there any plans to reduce the grid size?
There are always new satellites with better resolution. The question is if institutions like NSIDC are going to change the algorithm that they use to measure extent and take full advantage of the new instruments.

https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/first-data-sets-icesat-2-data-now-available

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 09, 2019, 06:34:08 AM »
Thanks for the update Juan.

On this date, the 8 lowest extent's are all from this decade and the 4 lowest are all from the past 5 years.

Your compact chart is pretty elegant in terms of highlighting the chronic and unrelenting advance of AGW.

You are welcome.  :)
It could be the AMSR2 better resolution against older satellites, as I mentioned before:

Edit: Maybe as the satellite gets an equipment with better resolution, the sea ice extent gets a lower value. Kind of implicit when the definition is: "If sea ice on a grid is equal or more than 15%, then it becomes 100%". As the grid gets smaller, the rounding becomes smaller also.

Explaining graphically what I mean:


That is,older satellites can tend to give bigger extent values.
I think that to make comparisons with older years, NSIDC is better. But to follow the last years, ADS-NIPR-VISHOP or Hamburg University will be more accurate.

39
It's been nothing but a string of slush for 2 days.
So, June 7th, 8th or 9th?
I think June 8th or 9th.


P.S. Officialy open more or less one month earlier than any other year.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 09, 2019, 05:42:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 8th, 2019:
     10,361,292 km2, a drop of -24,937 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

41
Worldview with time stamp:

i was looking at the same but didn't find a time stamp nor do i see one in your posted image, it only tells the day but not the time, can you provide help how to find the time in those images, i rarely use those and have little experience, thanks.
Well, you are right.

It is just a day stamp, not a time stamp.
Surely someone here knows about the satellites timing, but I don't.
So, I cannot tell you.  :(


P.S. I post it ~3 hours before Alaska midnight.

42
Worldview with time stamp:

43
Upss!
Is there a green point?
I didn't put it with Paint!  ;)
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/


Alaska: 3 hours to end the day.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 08, 2019, 05:57:16 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 7th, 2019:
     10,386,229 km2, a drop of -50,768 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

45
The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: June 08, 2019, 01:02:45 AM »
Beautiful sentinel image (dated 030619) of the blue ice at the head of Tanquary Fiord, north central Ellesmere Island.

Reminds me of a leopard's head.

46
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: June 07, 2019, 11:05:48 PM »
'Which vacation spots could be permanently damaged by global warming?'

Nine examples of U.S. destinations that could be hard-hit by rising temperatures, sea-level rise, and acidifying oceans.


9. The Magic Kingdom near Orlando, Florida
8. Wine country in California
7. Jamestown Island, Virginia
6. Low-elevation winter resorts in the Midwest and the Appalachians
5. Charleston, South Carolina
4. Pike Place Market in Seattle
3. The Outer Banks in North Carolina
2. Glacier National Park in Montana
1. The Florida Reef, South Florida

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/06/which-vacation-spots-are-being-harmed-by-climate-change/

And:
0. The rest…


(Seems like rocket count down…)  :-\

47
The forum / Re: Does ASIF have a mission statement ?
« on: June 07, 2019, 10:08:16 PM »
To be the witness of an historical event: the melting of the Arctic sea ice, at the same time that economic interests denies it. And to understand the consequences and find solutions.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 07, 2019, 09:06:31 PM »
Interesting article in the Guardian regarding the Carbon Pump caused by zooplankton...
See https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/07/oceans-demise-the-end-of-the-arctic-as-we-know-it
From The Guardian link, great video to watch the vulnerability of the ASI (with waves, small floes and people above):

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Do we make too much of 2012 ?
« on: June 07, 2019, 03:15:27 PM »
Juan, thanks for the table.
2007 was the real shocker.
Yes, it is interesting that 2007 is 9th lowest on September volume, with 72% more ice than 2012. As you explained on the NSIDC poll, 2007 could be over valuated, because of its late refreeze. It is interesting that JAXA puts 2016 as the second lowest, because it just looks for the daily lowest, not the monthly average lowest. And Bremen said that 2011 daily extent was lower than 2007. On volumen, September 2016 is 3rd lowest. And on a year average, 2017 is worst than 2012.

So, things have been happening, but we don't see them, if we just look at the September monthly average extent.
I should have voted 4-4.5 but went one lower.
A lot depends on the date of refreeze, 2007 was very late and 2016 very early, hence their 0.25 difference.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Do we make too much of 2012 ?
« on: June 07, 2019, 02:55:11 PM »
For how i understand it, the problem with volume measurement is that it is widely believed to be unreliable.
It has a greater margin of error, but it represents the reality better.

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