Renewable Energy Transition and Consumption

[gerontocrat]

China's Bureau of National Statistics is gradually issuing more up-to-date annual data

As China is the world's no. 1 emitter of CO2, here are a couple of new graphs. The data is "as is" from the Bureau's tables (i.e. no adjustents or changes).

The 1st graph shows annual energy consumption in the last 20 years, in, of all things, units of 10,000 tons of Coal Equivalent. This initially shows us two things:
- the Chinese numbering system is a bit different from that in the West,-
- China is coal rich, has modest natural gas reerves, and minimal oil reserves (hence its push for domination in the South China Sea). Energy dependence on coal is built into statistical record-keeping,

More detail
Total primary energy consumption has increased by 150% since 2004 (population only increased marginally - by less than 1%, though the percentage of the Urban population rose from 43% to 66%).

The 2nd graph shows the proprtion of energy consumption by source. Despite the high energy consumption growth, electrification of energy consumption has risien from 8.4% to 17.5%, while dependence on coal has reduced from 72% to 55%.

Sinopec is apparently predicting peak oil this year. Petroleum products account for 18% of energy consumption in 2023, down from 20% in 2004. This is much lower than in some counties, e.g. the USA where it is 36%. With EVs doing so well in China, it is starting to look like the strong growth in private and commercial vehicles in China will not be leading to increased demand for the black stuff, a key element in China's energy security strategy.

Use of natural gas, however, has increased from 2% to 8% of energy consumption.

Despite progress in switching from coal, overall China's economy in 2023 was still dependent by more than 80% on fossil fuels (down from 95% in 2004, i.e. a reduction of less than 1% per year). Net zero by 2050 (2060?) still looks a Herculean task.

[interstitial]

gerontocrat you describe a graph based on coal equivalents but show a graph based on percentages which in my opinion gives a false impression of declining fossil fuel consumption.

[gerontocrat]

gerontocrat you describe a graph based on coal equivalents but show a graph based on percentages which in my opinion gives a false impression of declining fossil fuel consumption.

Wrong graph! Corrected

[gerontocrat]

The IEA have issued electricity data for the OECD countries & others up to January 2024

12 month trailing averages used to smooth out monthly & seasonal variations.


The tables attached show that for the OECD +China + India the percentage of electricity from coal+oil+natural gas has fallen below 50%. However, electricity from these fossil fuels continues to grow due to the increase in electricity produced.

The USA's electricity from coal spiked in January 2024 to 79TWH from 59TWH in December. However, Interstitial tells us that coal use has plummeted to daily record lows in the following months.

Wind+solar electricity from OECD +China + India increased by 14.5% over the 12 months Jan 23 to Jan 24, fossil fuel electricity by 2.3%.

The wind+solar graphs show China's continuing dominance.

The last graph shows that electricity is a growth industry and coal+natural gas are still the main players.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Meanwhile, China's National Statistics Bureau has published energy data to March 2024.

Electricity produced in the first 3 months of 2024 was 8% higher than in the first 3 months of 2023.
For the 12 months April 23 to March 24 the production was 7.2% above April 22 to March 23.

Despite the 18+% increase in wind+solar electricity, the lacklustre performance of nuclear and hydropower, resulted in a large increase in the use of thermal electricity (mostly coal) which was 7.2 higher than in the first 3 months of 2023, and for the 12 months April 23 to March 24 production was 7.7% above April 22 to March 23.

Nevertheless, wind+solar April 23 to March 24 increased to 12.7% of total electricity, from 11.5% in the 12 months before.

In contrast coal production in the first 3 months of 2024 is 4.1% below that of the first 3 months of 2023, and increased by only 1% in the 12 months April 23 to March 24 compared with April 22 to March 23.

Trouble is, I have no data on the use of coal for other purposes than electricity production.

[gerontocrat]

Meanwhile, China's National Statistics Bureau has published energy data to March 2024.

The big question is when will China's use of coal for electricity start to reduce.

In the last 12 months the annual increase of wind+solar electricity was 18.4%.
I have assumed 20% in future years which will be harder and harder to achieve.

Due to climate change (heat, droughts, floods, more frequent extreme weather events) I have doubts whether Hydropower will increase at all. I have put annual growth in at 1%.

Nuclear !! I am more than surprised See China Daily Article below

Is China's nuclear programme taking off bigtime?

To achieve nuclear energy of 10% of total power production by 2035 looks like an average annual growth rate of around 10%, which I've put into my projection.

Result: Thermal electricity increases at a reducing rate until 2028. After 2030 thermal electricity drops like a stone
The IEA seems to be more optimistic than me.

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202404/16/WS661dcf47a31082fc043c2252.html

Nuclear power's share in energy mix on the rise

Carbon-free electricity generator seen as key to meeting environmental goals


An aerial drone photo taken on Feb 22 shows construction on the second phase of the Zhangzhou nuclear power project in Zhangzhou, Fujian province. The project uses Hualong One reactors, which are third-generation reactors developed domestically. [PHOTO/XINHUA]

Nuclear power generating capacity in China is expected to continue increasing in the coming years with its share in the country's energy mix set to keep climbing, according to an industry report.

China is expected to further expand its installed nuclear power capacity, which will account for 10 percent of China's total power output in 2035, up from 5 percent in 2021 and equivalent to reducing 900 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, according to a blue book — China's Nuclear Energy Development 2024 — released by the China Nuclear Energy Association on Monday.

The share of nuclear power generation is expected to reach 18 percent by 2060, which is similar to the current average level for members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), it said.

The Chinese government has been implementing an active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power in recent years, with the scale and pace of nuclear power development entering a new normal, Zhang Tingke, vice-chairman and secretary-general of the China Nuclear Energy Association, said on Monday.

According to the blue book, China's nuclear power generation has continued to grow over the past few years, and future power supply growth will come mostly from non-fossil energy sources amid its green energy transition.

Nuclear power generation in China reached 433.37 billion kilowatt-hours last year, ranking second worldwide and equivalent to reducing the burning of standard coal by more than 130 million tons compared with coal-fired power generation, it said.

In 2023, China's nuclear power projects under construction steadily advanced, with five new nuclear power units launching construction. The investment in nuclear power construction was 94.9 billion yuan ($13.11 billion) last year, the highest level in five years, it said.

According to CITIC Securities, the accelerated approval of nuclear power projects is expected to lead to the growth of China's related industry chain, further facilitating the country's goal of reducing carbon emissions sooner than planned.

It estimates that the value of investments in new nuclear power plants will hit 231 billion yuan by 2025.

Nuclear power is seen as a carbon-free low-cost alternative in China's energy transition, and its role has become increasingly important in recent years, said S&P Global Commodity Insights.

China's energy policy is leaning toward strong growth in nuclear, in line with several European countries where it has assumed greater importance with the diversification from Russian oil and gas, it said.

S&P Global Commodity Insights projects the share of nuclear power to be higher in the generational mix of coastal provinces at 15 percent in 2035, up from 11 percent in 2021, while China's nuclear generation capacity will reach 145 gigawatts in 2035, more than double the 2025 target level.

In China's latest 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), the government has called for nuclear generation capacity expansion to 70 GW in 2025.

According to the blue book, China continues to lead the world in the number of nuclear power units under construction at 26. Total planned installed capacity of 30.30 GW is currently under construction, ranking tops worldwide, it said.

Wang Shoujun, president of the Chinese Nuclear Society, said after more than 30 years of development, China has risen from being a novice to a pioneer in the nuclear power industry.

The country's nuclear power industry has witnessed huge progress in localizing nuclear technology, including its third-generation Hualong One pressurized water nuclear reactor design — a Chinese reactor with full proprietary intellectual property rights — which is also one of the most widely accepted third-generation nuclear power reactors in the market, Wang said.

The country has also been consistently pushing forward research and development of large advanced pressurized water reactors and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, with numerous technological breakthroughs in onshore commercial modular small reactor construction as well as numerous advanced nuclear energy systems, Wang added.

       

[kassy]

That is encouraging. Again faster then expected. Not committing to a certain target is less of a problem if you fix the problem for other reasons.

[gerontocrat]

CHINA - And now a Flight of Fancy.

What will happen if China just keeps on going on renewables and nuclear the way it is at the moment all the way to 2035?

If it happens, it will be wind+solar, not nuclear, that kills the Thermal Electricity / Coal industry in the 2030s. Nuclear will be a baseload supplier.

This would hand China another big debt problem, with some local governments already in big trouble from coal plant and property sector debts.

Pure speculation?  I wonder,

ps:
- Solar power is understated in the data, as rooftop solar is not included in the monthly data from the National Statistics Bureau although it is growing strongly. It seems in March the understatement was 46TWH, 150% of the published solar figure, 6% of total electricity production. Stunning.
- The data strongly suggests that as well as problems with the grid,  electricity utilities and local governments are keeping the coal plants going, leading to suppression (curtailment) of solar power. The result is the capacity factor of solar is currently less than 10%, even though most of China is south of 45 degrees North.
- Wind power capacity factor is less than 25%, also indicating significant curtailment of potential supply.

[Freegrass]

Excellent video again from Rosie about the transition in Switzerland. I really love her videos.

Switzerland already has a lot of hydro and nuclear, but wants to end nuclear, and become a useful partner in the European energy transition by creating more pumped hydro storage.

[gerontocrat]

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

The USA Energy Information Agency have published Jan 24 Energy Data

Here are some graphs. Will President Biden's target for the United States to achieve a 50-52 percent reduction in US CO2 emissions from 2005 levels by 2030 be achieved?

I still think a reduction in CO2 emissions will be achieved but very much below the target reduction.

[gerontocrat]

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

The USA Energy Information Agency have published Jan 24 Energy Data

Waste heat from coal and gas used in electricity production remains stubbornly high at 300GWH per month, 6 times the electricity from wind+solar.

This does not include energy used from source to delivery at power station, so perhaps a 5-10% to the 300 GWH.

We may see a strong rise at least in solar this year, plus a marked reduction in coal use. This could bring a stronger reduction in wasted energy from coal and gas.

[interstitial]

February electricity number are out no surprises really solar up a bit and wind flat. Coal down a bit and gas up far to much and will probably continue to grow until it gets much more expensive. It is too cheap in the US right now at $1.61 /mmbtu at this writing. In south Texas the price of natural gas went negative several times recently.

[Sigmetnow]

One year ago today, the Tesla executive team presented an inspiring and feasible path to a fully sustainable energy economy for Earth. Here's the full, 3.5-hour-long presentation.

Timestamps:

Part 1: Master Plan 3
 
02:12 What does it take to convert Earth to sustainable energy generation & use (Elon Musk & Drew Baglino)

Part 2: Executing Master Plan 3
 
29:04 Vehicle Design (Lars Moravy & Franz von Holzhausen)
41:26 Powertrain (Colin Campbell)
50:07 Electronic Architecture (Pete Bannon & David Lau)
1:09:14 Full Self-Driving (Ashok Elluswamy)
1:19:11 Bot Update (E. Musk & A. Elluswamy)
1:24:21 Charging (Rebecca Tinucci)
1:32:52 Supply Chain (Karn Budhiraj & Roshan Thomas)
1:53:48 Manufacturing (Tom Zhu & D. Baglino)
2:07:11 Energy (D. Baglino & Mike Snyder)

Part 3: Impact at Tesla
 
2:19:59 Impact (Laurie Shelby & Brandon Ehrheart)
2:26:38 Financials (Zach Kirkhorn)
2:42:00 New Gigafactory Announcement

Q&A
 
2:44:42 Timeline for new vehicle design
2:47:02 Minining
2:50:32 Involving the rest of the industry
2:52:18 Number of vehicle models, bidirectional charging
2:56:05 Market share in China & political relations with China
2:57:57 Velocity of learning cycles
2:58:48 Demand
3:01:27 Next vehicle models & cannibalizing demand
3:08:45 Cost optimization by region
3:12:51 Capex guidance and Tesla AI
3:16:12 Dry battery electrodes
3:21:29 Managing a large organization & generative AI
 
5/11/24,  https://x.com/muskbreaking/status/1789314961367277966
 
PDF presentation: https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/Investor-Day-2023-Keynote
 
Watch on 𝕏:  ➡️ pic.twitter.com/vrSyaJJyZS  3h25m
 
Or:
2023 Investor Day - YouTube
With Pre-show and Q&A
3h46m
 

[gerontocrat]

IEA Electricity generation  data to Feb 24

OECD data shows the OECD countries made progress in the transition to renewables, especially in reducing coal use (see quote below & 1st image attached).

India & China tell a different story

Demand for electricity grows strongly in both countries, and the use of coal increases, though as a percentage of total electricity generation it decreases - very slowly. In China coal still provides just over 60% of electricity, in India just over 70%. (see graphs 2 & 3 N.B. 12 month trailing average)

The last image attached shows that for OECD+China+India, the Holy Grail of reduced fossil fuel use for electricity remains elusive as ever. (N.B. 12 month trailing average)
_______________________________
from IEA email

IEA - OECD Monthly Electricity Statistics to Feb 24

In February 2024, the total net electricity production in total OECD reached 869.1 TWh, marking a 2.3% increase compared to the same period last year.
 
Electricity generation from fossil fuels amounted to 397.3 TWh in February 2024, exhibiting a decline of 5.2% (equivalent to 21.8 TWh) compared to February 2023. This reduction was largely driven by lower electricity output from coal, which experienced an 8.3% year-on-year decrease, followed by gas with a decrease of 3.3% year-on-year. The decrease in coal-fired electricity generation was evident across all OECD regions, with OECD Europe experiencing the most significant decline at 20.3% year-on-year, followed by OECD Asia Oceania at 4.0% year-on-year and the OECD Americas at 3.3% year-on-year. The drop in natural gas electricity production was observed in OECD Europe (-26.4% y-o-y) and OECD Asia Oceania (-3.5% y-o-y), whereas the OECD Americas witnessed a 5.9% y-o-y increase. Overall, fossil fuels accounted for 45.7% of the electricity mix.
 
Electricity production from renewable sources increased by 11.4% y-o-y at 320.0 TWh in February 2024. This growth was primarily driven by increased electricity generation from wind power, with OECD Europe leading the trend with a notable 29.8% year-on-year increase, equivalent to 15.1 TWh.

Hydropower generation also experienced a significant rise of 9.8% year-on-year, driven by increased output in OECD Europe (+34.4% y-o-y) and OECD Asia Oceania (+21.9% y-o-y), although it declined in the OECD Americas by 7.9% year-on-year.

Solar power generation continued its upward trend, with significant increases observed in the OECD Americas (+30.4% y-o-y) and in OECD Europe (+9.9% y-o-y). Overall, renewables sources contributed 36.8% to total electricity production in February 2024, marking an increase of 3 percentage points compared to the same month in the previous year.
 
Nuclear electricity production reached 149.2 TWh in February 2024, reflecting a 6.0% increase compared to the same month last year. This growth was attributable to increased nuclear output across all OECD regions, with the OECD Americas leading with a 5.4% year-on-year increase, followed by OECD Asia Oceania (+13.2% y-o-y) and OECD Europe (+4.2% y-o-y). Overall, nuclear power contributed 17.2% to the electricity mix.

[Sciguy]

Speaking of India, coal’s share of total installed capacity has dropped below 50% for the first time since the 1960s.  And solar is booming there.

https://ieefa.org/articles/surge-indias-renewables-tendering-set-keep-coals-share-below-50-total-installed-capacity

Surge in India’s renewables tendering set to keep coal’s share below 50% in total installed capacity
May 15, 2024

15 May 2024 (IEEFA South Asia, Ember, and JMK Research): India is rapidly emerging as a renewable energy powerhouse on the world stage with a surge in both capacity addition and tendering to add more plants, as evidenced by a suite of new research reports. The trend points to a more sustainable future for India’s electricity sector, even as the country continued to generate more electricity from its coal-fired plants in recent months.

Renewable energy accounted for 71.5% of the record 13,669 megawatts (MW) power generation capacity added by India in the first quarter (Jan-Mar) of this year (2024), while coal’s share (including lignite) of total power capacity dropped below 50% for the first time since the 1960s.

India has rocketed to third in the world’s solar power generation rankings, behind only China and the US, according to Ember’s fifth annual Global Electricity Review of 80 countries, released last week. Ranked ninth in 2015, India has now surpassed Japan, which, along with fellow G7 member Germany, has a stubbornly high demand for coal.

Solar was the world’s fastest-growing electricity source for the 19th straight year, adding more than twice as much new electricity as coal last year. India had the world’s fourth-largest increase in solar generation in 2023 (+18 teraWatt hours/TWh), behind China (+156TWh), the US (+33TWh) and Brazil (+22TWh). The top four countries accounted for three-quarters of solar growth in 2023.

Since 2000, the share of global electricity from renewables has expanded from 19% to more than 30%, driven by an increase in solar and wind from 0.2% in 2000 to a record 13.4% in 2023. As a result, the carbon dioxide intensity of global power generation reached a record low in 2023, 12% below the 2007 peak.

[gerontocrat]

China- Electricity generation data to April 2024 from the National Statistics Bureau.

In the 12 months to April 24 China produced 7% more electricity than in the previous 12 months.
GDP growth was somewhat lower than that.

Despite high growth in wind & especially solar, this meant that thermal electricity (mainly coal) increased by 6.9% in the 12 months to April 24 compared to the previous 12 months. On the other hand coal production only increased by 0.3% in that 12 month period.

Growth in nuclear and hydro is muted, hydro due to extreme weather, and nuclear as the very large development plan for new nuclear plants is still in the early stages.

My guess remains that the use of fossil fuels for electricity in China will peak somewhere between 2027 and 2029, and only reduce significantly in the 2030s.

[gerontocrat]

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

The EIA of the USA has issued energy data to Feb 24, (+ a couple of more months for oil and coal).
Most graphs attrached are 12 month trailing average
_____________________________________________
Wind+solar
Solar growing strongly as the 2023 additional capacity installed kicks in.
Wind still in the doldrums.

Wind+solar rises by 0.1% in the month to 14.1 percent of electricity produced, but remains at 2.5% of total primary energy consumption.

However wind+solar+hydr+nuclear produce 40% of total electricity compared with 30% 15 years ago. But this is still only about 7% of total primary energy consumption.

CO2 emissions rise very slightly, as increased use of gas exceeds reduced use of coal.

[gerontocrat]

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

The EIA of the USA has issued energy data to Feb 24, (+ a couple of more months for oil and coal).
Most graphs attrached are 12 month trailing average
_____________________________________________
USA Electricity produced is about 350TWH per month.

The energy lost in using Coal & Natural Gas to produce electricity is stuck at 300TWH per month.

To put it another way, energy input to make electricity is 29% of total primary energy conumption. Elecricity produced is just 15% of total primary energy conumption.

[Sigmetnow]

Renewable energy passes 30% of world’s electricity supply

Renewable energy accounted for more than 30% of the world’s electricity for the first time last year following a rapid rise in wind and solar power, according to new figures.
 
A report on the global power system has found that the world may be on the brink of driving down fossil fuel generation, even as overall demand for electricity continues to rise.
 
Clean electricity has already helped to slow the growth in fossil fuels by almost two-thirds in the past 10 years, according to the report by climate thinktank Ember. It found that renewables have grown from 19% of electricity in 2000 to more than 30% of global electricity last year.
“The renewables future has arrived,” said Dave Jones, Ember’s director of global insights. “Solar, in particular, is accelerating faster than anyone thought possible.”
Solar was the main supplier of electricity growth, according to Ember, adding more than twice as much new electricity generation as coal in 2023.
 
It was the fastest-growing source of electricity for the 19th consecutive year, and also became the largest source of new electricity for the second year running, after surpassing wind power. The first comprehensive review of global electricity data covers 80 countries, which represent 92% of the world’s electricity demand, as well as historic data for 215 countries.
 
The surge in clean electricity is expected to power a 2% decrease in global fossil fuel generation in the year ahead, according to Ember.
 
“The decline of power sector emissions is now inevitable,” said Jones. “2023 was likely the pivot point – peak emissions in the power sector – a major turning point in the history of energy. But the pace of emissions falls depends on how fast the renewables revolution continues.” …

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/renewable-energy-passes-30-of-worlds-electricity-supply

 
    ——

RethinkX
 
🚀 100% solar, wind and battery is possible anywhere on Earth, even in the South Pole!📍
 
💡The first key finding of our 2020 Rethinking Energy report stated:
 
“It is both physically possible and economically affordable to meet 100% of electricity demand with the combination of solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) by 2030 across the entire continental United States as well as the overwhelming majority of other populated regions of the world.”
 
📍This newly published analysis by @argonne and @NREL shows that 100% SWB is possible even at the South Pole, where solar and wind power can cut diesel usage by 95% and, with lithium-ion batteries, even 100%:  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032123011322
 
According to this analysis: “All the scenarios modeled show that the transition to renewables is highly cost effective under the unique economics and constraints of this extremely remote site.”

Read our Energy report for more of our key findings:
https://www.rethinkx.com/publications/rethinkingenergy2020.en

Learn more about the disruption of energy by solar, wind and battery: https://www.rethinkx.com/disruption/in-depth/disruption-of-energy
 

5/21/24, https://x.com/rethink_x/status/1793041855250079898

[gerontocrat]

The IEA has released a report on energy investment 2019 to 2023 + estimates 2024

https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2024

My view is that on current trends anthropogenic CO2 emissions will reduce by 2030, but well below the 2030 targets to keep Global Warming below +1.5 C. Atmospheric CO2 ppm will therefore increase at a slower rate by 2030, as long as the Land & Ocean CO2 sinks hold up.

The data also shows the dominance of China, the US and the European Union over Energy Investment.

From their email here is a summary and attached are some graphs (click to enlarge)

We (The IEA) just released the new edition of World Energy Investment, our annual publication that provides a wealth of insights into the latest investment trends across the global energy landscape.

The report finds that despite pressures on financing, global investment in clean energy is set to reach almost double the amount going to fossil fuels in 2024, helped by improving supply chains and lower costs for clean technologies.

This year, total energy investment worldwide is expected to top $3 trillion for the first time. Some $2 trillion is expected to flow towards clean technologies such as renewables, electric vehicles, nuclear power, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency improvements and heat pumps. The remainder – slightly over $1 trillion – is set to go to coal, gas and oil.

However, even as spending on clean energy breaks records, there are still major imbalances and shortfalls in energy investment in many parts of the world. The report highlights these discrepancies and the barriers they present to building a more secure, sustainable and just energy system.

Here are some other important takeaways:
- For the first time ever, combined investment in renewables and grids overtook the amount spent on fossil fuels in 2023. In particular, solar PV is attracting huge levels of spending (see chart below for more).

- China, which is seeing strong domestic demand for solar, lithium batteries and electric vehicles, is set to account for the largest share of clean energy investment this year, reaching an estimated $675 billion. Europe and the United States follow, with clean energy investment of $370 billion and $315 billion, respectively. These three major economies alone make up more than two-thirds of global clean energy investment.

- In emerging and developing economies outside China, clean energy investment in 2024 is set to surpass $300 billion for the first time, led by Brazil and India. Still, the report finds that this level of spending – which accounts for only about 15% of the global total – is far below what is required to meet growing energy demand in many of these countries, where the high cost of capital is holding back the development of new projects.

- Global upstream oil and gas investment is expected to increase by 7% in 2024 to reach $570 billion, following a similar rise in 2023. This is broadly aligned with the demand levels implied in 2030 by today’s policy settings, according to the report – but it is far higher than projected in scenarios that hit national or global climate goals. Notably, clean energy investments by oil and gas companies accounted for only 4% of the industry’s overall capital spending in 2023.

- Spending on grids – key to enabling faster clean energy transitions – is set to reach $400 billion in 2024, having been stuck at around $300 billion annually between 2015 and 2021. Investments in battery storage are also taking off and are poised to reach $54 billion in 2024. However, this spending also remains highly geographically concentrated.

“Clean energy investment is setting new records even in challenging economic conditions, highlighting the momentum behind the new global energy economy. For every dollar going to fossil fuels today, almost two dollars are invested in clean energy,” said our Executive Director Fatih Birol. “The rise in clean energy spending is underpinned by strong economics, by continued cost reductions and by considerations of energy security. But there is a strong element of industrial policy, too, as major economies compete for advantage in new clean energy supply chains. More must be done to ensure that investment reaches the places where it is needed most, in particular the developing economies where access to affordable, sustainable and secure energy is severely lacking today.”

[gerontocrat]

iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/monthly-electricity-statistics

The IEA has issued OECD+associated countries electricity production data to March 2024
Here will be posted over the next few days tables & graphs for the OECD, India & China.
Most will be 12 month trailing average data to reduce influence of seasonal variations
_______________________________________________________
The first table attached shows that the 12 month trailing average shows that for the OECD+China+India the peak for use of fossil fuels in electricity production has not yeat been reached. However the one month data suggests that we may see the peak later this year in the 12 month average.

The 2nd table shows that in OECD Europe the peak for use of fossil fuels in electricity production was reached a good many years ago despite an uptick in 2021 & 2022 (Covid+Germany shutting down nuclear power+ France with nuclear plant problems).

Solar power is growing at a far faster rate than wind at the moment. However if the planned browth in North Sea offshore wind happens, the use of coal & natural gas should continue to sharply reduce in the rest of this decade.

The 3rd table shows that in the USA the brightest spots are the fast reduction in the use of coal and the current high growth in solar. As wind remains in the doldrums the 12 month trailing average for use of fossil fuels in electricity production still grows marginally, though the one month data shows a sharp drop. If the strong increase in solar power continues we may see the use of fossil fuels dropping consistently later this year.

The 4th table is about China. China remains the star for rapid growth in wind+solar. But with electricity demand growing at 7% per annum it is still not quite enough to force a reduction in coal use.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/monthly-electricity-statistics

The IEA has issued OECD+associated countries electricity production data to March 2024
Here will be posted over the next few days tables & graphs for the OECD, India & China.
Most will be 12 month trailing average data to reduce influence of seasonal variations
_______________________________________________________
Time for some pretty pictures OECD+China+India

Wind+Solar
China increases its domination.
Wins still about 50% more than solar, but maybe solar catching up.

Wind+solar increases its share of electricity produced but as nuclear and hydro mostly flat and  electricity demand increases, by not enough to reduce use of coal+natural gas+oil.

click images to enlarge[/i]

[gerontocrat]

iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/monthly-electricity-statistics

The IEA has issued OECD+associated countries electricity production data to March 2024
Here will be posted over the next few days tables & graphs for the OECD, India & China.
Most will be 12 month trailing average data to reduce influence of seasonal variations
_______________________________________________________
Time for some pretty pictures OECD+China+India

China
The high growth in electricity demand ensures the use of coal increases, but more slowly.

India
The same story as for China but with faster growth in use of coal

US
Electricity demand stable, so even a modest increase in renwables squeezes fossil fuel use, especially coal. No obvious sign of an AI data center (or BEV) effect yet.

Europe
The Russia / Ukraine effect since early 2023 has squeezed fossil fuels by motivating wind+solar growth and increased efforts to reduce electricity demand. This has hit use on natural gas especially.
Also signs that the final demise of coal may be a long drawn out affair.

I won't look in this detail again for a few months as it takes several months for real change to show in the 12 month trailing average data and graphs.

click images to enlarge[/i]

[interstitial]

US electricity demand has been increasing lately primarily due to manufacturing industry and datacenters. The forecast is 4.7% growth over the next 5 years.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/electricity-load-growing-twice-as-fast-as-expected-Grid-Strategies-report/702366/