The answer is solar is replacing coal and a decline in wind and a decline in gas not wind plus solar. In March we added 3.7 GW of renewables and 0.95 GW of gas nameplate capacity. Actual generation increased on average over the last 12 months by -1.7 TWH/month for wind (the decline is year to year wind variation not a decline in capacity which grew but not by much) 3.4 TWH/month for solar and -0.4 TWH/month for gas.
Land based wind has all but stopped growing in the US due to obstructionist efforts. Wind stole half of solar impact on fossil fuel use. Solar is a small but growing part of the generation pie. Given that gas is currently about 150 TWH/month with 40+ TWH/month seasonal variability 1.7 TWh/month growth in renewable generation is hard to see. If it can continue it will become more prominent eventually.
In the oil thread it looked like coal was being replaced by gas. The combined usage of coal and gas hasn't shift in a decade.
Solar and wind are growing but is still minor player.
That was data for the last 12 months from April 23 to March 24. If you go back any farther it is mostly gas replacing coal. Things are changing just not fast enough.
Coal was first followed by gas and nuclear. Then coal slipped to second behind gas(42%) which did not grow in the last 12 months. Now coal is producing (16%) less power than nuclear (19%). Coal is slowing and approaching the level of wind(11%). It is still a ways off especially since wind has nearly stopped growing at least until offshore wind takes off. Solar is growing faster than everything else put together but only represents 4% last year and is expected to be nearly 6% this year. It looks like solar grows 50% but rounding errors make it look better than it is. Think 4.49% to 5.51% though I do not have the actual numbers. Other factors like increased battery deployment may also contribute to better utilization though I do not know.
In the last decade coal was replaced by gas but in the last year it was replaced by solar.
