Oil and Gas Issues

[morganism]

John Ʌ Konrad V @johnkonrad Jun 11 (Houthis targeting shipping)

Who could have possibly predicted the current Jet Fuel shortages? (2023)

@GMJournalist reports that Jet Fuel will be the cargo most disrupted by the pause of ships transitioning the Red Sea. At present ✈️ fuel consumption rates the market could get squeezed. But consumption could spike

Will jets be grounded because of the iceland volcano or burn more fuel diverting around it?

The #1 user of jet fuel is the US military which may have to fly a LOT more airlift missions to compensate for @Maersk military cargo ships stuck waiting.

How many more flights? The air capacity of the entire USAF cargo fleet is less than what fits on a single modern ultra-large containership.

What about the non-military cargo aboard the containerships? Most of that isn’t time sensitive enough to switch to air but a portion is. Because of the size of a containership even a tiny percentage being sent by air requires a large number of planes.

The ships that carry jet fuel are called product tankers. These ships also carry gasoline and diesel. Gas is unlikely to rise but the massive containerships sailing around Africa are likely to sail at top speed to make up time. Ships are not efficient at top speed and most burn marine diesel. This additional load will compete with jet fuel for cargo space.

And even before this incident, there was a major shortage of product tankers.

And that’s all provided the war doesn’t spread. Wars consume and inordinate amount of fuel as militaries go increase speed.

Even nations not in the fight consume more fuel as they launch surveillance planes and start moving supplies closer to the fight.

Finally there is the fact that a large percentage of jet fuel use goes unreported. Some of this is to hide just how much planes burn (even John Kerry flys his jet to COP) and some of the under-reporting are militaries trying to keep fuel movements secret.

Finally when a critical commodity becomes scare, nations begin to hoard available supply.

What does this all add up to? Uncertainty. Jets grounded because of the volcano and fuel hoarding could ease the supply constraints. The rest of the problems could tighten the market.

Lastly this action is being coordinated by Iran who likely has a plan and is tipping off commodity traders. These traders could use leverage to tighten the market further (some do it by paying tankers to sit at anchor while prices go up) or they could artificially lower prices (either with financial tools or by paying states with large reserves to release product).

Uncertainty is the word of the day.

Read Greg’s full article here: freightwaves.com/news/red-se…


https://nitter.poast.org/johnkonrad/status/1800559561851777519#m

[gerontocrat]

The IEA have produced oil & gas data for the OECD countries to March 24

here is a summary from their emails

Monthly Oil Statistics
 
The latest IEA's Monthly Oil Statistics report including March 2024 data shows that for Total OECD:
 
Total OECD production of crude oil, NGL and refinery feedstocks increased by 3.5% in March 2024  compared to March 2023.
 Refinery gross output of total products increased by 0.9% on a year-on-year basis.

 Net deliveries of total products decreased by 3% in March 2024 compared to March 2023.
 
 Oil stock levels on national territory grew by 1 429 kt in March 2024 compared to the closing stock levels in February 2024 and closed at 466.2 million metric tons.

Monthly Gas Statistics
The latest IEA's Monthly Gas Statistics report including March 2024 data shows that for Total OECD:                                                                                             
Production of natural gas decreased by 0,3% compared to March 2023. 
   
Imports (entries) of natural gas were 9.8% lower on a year-on-year basis, and total OECD exports (exits) decreased by 3.8% in the same period.

Gross consumption of natural gas decreased by 5.0% in March 2024 on a year-on year basis.

[gerontocrat]

The IEA have produced oil & gas data for the OECD countries to March 24

More Data

OIL
Total OECD indigenous production of crude oil, NGL, and refinery feedstocks increased by 3.5% in March 2024 compared to March 2023. The trend was driven by the OECD Americas (+4.2%, y-o-y1), while OECD Asia Oceania remained almost unchanged (-0.7%, y-o-y) and OECD Europe experienced a 1.2% decrease year-on-year. By OECD region, the trend was led by the United States (+4.7%, y-o-y) followed by Canada (+5.4%, y-o-y); Australia (-2.0%, y-o-y) and Korea (+18.7%, y-o-y), balancing out each other; and the United Kingdom (-8.9%, y-o-y), despite notable increases from Norway (+1.1%, y-o-y) and Türkiye (+34.3%, y-o-y). Overall, total OECD production increased by 3.9% on a year-to-date2 basis.

Total OECD refinery gross output of total products increased by 0.9% in March 2024 compared to the same month in 2023, with strong increases in total gasoline (+2.3%, y-o-y) and fuel oil (+8.4%, y-o-y), and a decrease in other products (-3.3%, y-o-y). On the regional breakout, the OECD Americas experienced an increase (+2.9%, y-o-y), while OECD Asia Oceania and OECD Europe showed negative trends (-2.0%, and -0.8%, y-o-y, respectively). Overall, total OECD refinery gross output of total products was 0.6% higher year-to-date.
_______________________________________________________
GAS
Total OECD indigenous production of natural gas marginally decreased by 0.3% year-on-year1 in March 2024. Among the main OECD natural gas producers, increased production levels were registered in Australia (+2.7% y-o-y), Norway (+3.8% y-o-y) and Canada (+0.5% y-o-y), while lower output was observed in the UK (-6.2% y-o-y) and in the USA (-0.3% y-o-y).

Total OECD gross consumption of natural gas decreased by 5.0% y-o-y in March 2024. The most significant consumption drop occurred in the OECD Americas (-7.6% y-o-y) and was led by the USA (-7.4% y-o-y) and Canada (-12.0% y-o-y). Lower natural gas consumption was also observed in OECD Europe (-5.5% y-o-y), with significant declines in the UK (-11.9% y-o-y), Germany (-8.4% y-o-y) and France (-13.9% y-o-y). Conversely, natural gas consumption increased in OECD Asia-Oceania, driven by higher consumption levels in Japan (+14.9% y-o-y) and in Korea (+18.7% y-o-y).

[Sciguy]

The IEA is predicting a massive oversupply of oil in a few years due to the widespread adoption of EVs and renewable energy.

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2024/executive-summary

Global oil markets navigate a challenging landscape

Global oil markets will need to traverse myriad challenges in the medium-term as structural shifts reshape oil demand and trade flows, while rising oil supplies could potentially weigh on prices through the end of the decade.

Divergent regional economic trajectories and the accelerating deployment of clean and energy-saving technologies are combining to progressively slow the pace of oil demand growth, with a plateau emerging in the final years of our forecast, which runs to 2030. Emerging economies in Asia, particularly China and India, account for all of global demand growth. By contrast, oil demand in advanced economies falls sharply.

A ramping up of world oil production capacity, led by the United States and other producers in the Americas, is expected to outstrip demand growth over the 2023‑2030 forecast period and inflate the world’s spare capacity cushion to levels that are unprecedented, barring the Covid-19 period. Total supply capacity rises by 6 mb/d to nearly 113.8 mb/d by 2030, a staggering 8 mb/d above projected global demand of 105.4 mb/d.

World oil demand tempered by clean energy transition
Based on today’s market conditions and policies, global oil demand will level off at around 106 mb/d towards the end of the decade amid the accelerating transition to clean energy technologies. Surging EV sales and continued efficiency improvements of vehicles, and the substitution of oil with renewables or gas in the power sector, will significantly curb oil use in road transport and electricity generation.

Keep in mind that the IEA traditionally underestimates the growth in renewable energy and the pace of the energy transition.

[The Walrus]

The IEA is predicting a massive oversupply of oil in a few years due to the widespread adoption of EVs and renewable energy.

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2024/executive-summary

Global oil markets navigate a challenging landscape

Global oil markets will need to traverse myriad challenges in the medium-term as structural shifts reshape oil demand and trade flows, while rising oil supplies could potentially weigh on prices through the end of the decade.

Divergent regional economic trajectories and the accelerating deployment of clean and energy-saving technologies are combining to progressively slow the pace of oil demand growth, with a plateau emerging in the final years of our forecast, which runs to 2030. Emerging economies in Asia, particularly China and India, account for all of global demand growth. By contrast, oil demand in advanced economies falls sharply.

A ramping up of world oil production capacity, led by the United States and other producers in the Americas, is expected to outstrip demand growth over the 2023‑2030 forecast period and inflate the world’s spare capacity cushion to levels that are unprecedented, barring the Covid-19 period. Total supply capacity rises by 6 mb/d to nearly 113.8 mb/d by 2030, a staggering 8 mb/d above projected global demand of 105.4 mb/d.

World oil demand tempered by clean energy transition
Based on today’s market conditions and policies, global oil demand will level off at around 106 mb/d towards the end of the decade amid the accelerating transition to clean energy technologies. Surging EV sales and continued efficiency improvements of vehicles, and the substitution of oil with renewables or gas in the power sector, will significantly curb oil use in road transport and electricity generation.

Keep in mind that the IEA traditionally underestimates the growth in renewable energy and the pace of the energy transition.

That was not the conclusion that I gleaned from the article.  The oversupply results from production growing faster than demand, which is still rising.  The increase in natural gas appears to be the major reason for the oversupply, with EVs and renewables being a contributing factor.

[interstitial]

The IEA has changed they are not the fossil fuel organization they once were they are now pro renewables hence all the complaining from OPEC about their predictions of peak oil demand.


IEA does predict maximum oil demand occurs by 2030.

[interstitial]

2023 oil demand was 102 million barrels per day
march 2024 report predicts 103.3 for 2024

IEA predicts peak demand at 105.6 by 2029 which is 3.5% growth spread over 6 years


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Debate-Rages-Over-Global-Oil-Demand.html
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271823/global-crude-oil-demand/
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2024

That is very little growth between now and then.

[gerontocrat]

iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/monthly-electricity-statistics

The IEA has issued OECD+associated countries electricity production data to March 2024
Here will be posted over the next few days tables & graphs for the OECD, India & China.
Most will be 12 month trailing average data to reduce influence of seasonal variations
_______________________________________________________
Time for some pretty pictures OECD+China+India

Natural Gas -
India does not use much natural gas for electricity.
China's use gradually increasing but only 1/16th of the use of coal. China's natural gas reserves are pretty small
Non-US OECD reducing natural gas use.
In the USA increased use mostly due to replacing coal.