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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1200 on: July 02, 2017, 06:29:31 PM »
As global warming increases regional surface temperatures, power consumption will increase nonlinearly for air conditioning and refrigeration, as illustrated by the linked article:

Title: "Unprecedented heat in the Southwest shatters energy use records"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/06/30/unprecedented-heat-southwest-shatters-energy-use-records/440423001/

Extract: "Unprecedented temperatures across the Southwest pushed power companies into uncharted territory last week as they shattered records for electricity use."
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1201 on: July 02, 2017, 07:37:16 PM »
As global warming increases regional surface temperatures, power consumption will increase nonlinearly for air conditioning and refrigeration, as illustrated by the linked article:

Title: "Unprecedented heat in the Southwest shatters energy use records"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/06/30/unprecedented-heat-southwest-shatters-energy-use-records/440423001/

Extract: "Unprecedented temperatures across the Southwest pushed power companies into uncharted territory last week as they shattered records for electricity use."

But winter demand will drop as winters heat up.  I wonder which will be greater?

Summer heat, at least solar is getting cheap.

I wonder if increased heat in the southern states will cause population levels to drop there and increase in northern states as they become more temperate?  Long term, I think we see migration toward the poles.  Short term we're likely to see fewer snowbirds and see them stay in the southern states fewer weeks.

sesyf

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1202 on: July 02, 2017, 08:54:56 PM »
The balance of heating and cooling depends of course on the length of the corresponding periods, but as such I've beentold by air heatpump installers that one would use three times the energy to cool down a house compared to heating it same amount of degrees...

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1203 on: July 02, 2017, 09:25:31 PM »
The balance of heating and cooling depends of course on the length of the corresponding periods, but as such I've beentold by air heatpump installers that one would use three times the energy to cool down a house compared to heating it same amount of degrees...

I wonder if that holds if one is using a modern heat pump for both heating and cooling?  "Three times the energy" could be comparing an average (not so efficient) AC unit and fossil fuel (gas or oil furnace).

ghoti

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1204 on: July 02, 2017, 10:50:17 PM »
Heat pump energy efficiency gain is only for heating and then only for non-extreme cold situations if air source. For cooling it is just an air conditioner after all. If the heat pump is ground source then efficiency is closer to 4 times natural gas energy efficiency and cooling is also much more efficient than air source air conditioners.

Issue lately is right now natural gas is usually more than 4 times less expensive than electricity so energy efficiency doesn't save money.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1205 on: July 03, 2017, 12:43:26 AM »
Heat pump energy efficiency gain is only for heating and then only for non-extreme cold situations if air source. For cooling it is just an air conditioner after all. If the heat pump is ground source then efficiency is closer to 4 times natural gas energy efficiency and cooling is also much more efficient than air source air conditioners.

Issue lately is right now natural gas is usually more than 4 times less expensive than electricity so energy efficiency doesn't save money.

Air conditioners are heat pumps run in the opposite direction.  They either pump heat in or out, depending on whether we want the inside of the building to be hotter or colder.  Heat pumps have become much more efficient in the last few years.

I suspect we will move to heat pumps with thermal storage.  When electricity is cheap we will heat or cool either an insulated vat of water or the soil close to the building.  Then when we need heat or cold we'll pull from/transfer heat to that stored heat/cold.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1206 on: July 03, 2017, 03:42:05 PM »
G-20 Ambush: Let's stump Trump
If you think President Trump has enemies in Washington, just wait until he gets to the G-20 economic summit later this week in Hamburg. There, world leaders will be lying in wait to ambush the rogue American....
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/07/03/g-20-ambush-lets-stump-trump.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1207 on: July 05, 2017, 06:08:22 PM »
"Friday's meeting of world leaders in Germany is already being billed as the "G19" summit—U.S. exiled under Trump."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/882617566371475456

G20 to focus on climate change despite Trump’s resistance
Group of 20 leaders, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, are expected to endorse new action to battle climate change at their summit in Germany this week over the opposition of U.S. President Donald Trump.

As chair of this year's summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made it clear that she intends to focus on furthering the goals of the Paris climate accord, while Mr. Trump has set in motion the United States' withdrawal from the treaty.

Over the past several weeks, Mr. Trudeau has spoken to several G20 leaders – including Ms. Merkel, British Prime Minister Theresa May, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. After each call, the Prime Minister's Office in Ottawa released a "read-out," in every case reporting that Mr. Trudeau and the other leader had reaffirmed their commitment to the international effort to fight climate change.

He also spoke to Mr. Trump, but his office gave no indication that climate change was discussed.

As was the case at the recent G7 summit in Italy, the G20 now faces the choice of allowing Mr. Trump to veto any wording that would support the Paris accord, or making that endorsement without him.

"The outcome clearly matters," said Andrew Light, a senior fellow at the World Resources Institute in Washington and former State Department official.

"It matters because one of the biggest emitters in the world and one of the parties that was pushing hardest and longest to achieve the Paris accord has announced its intention to withdraw. So in the face of that, you absolutely need a statement of solidarity – a G19 or as close as you can get to a G19 commitment on climate change."
...
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/g20-to-focus-on-climate-change-despite-trumps-resistance/article35533475/
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wili

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1208 on: July 05, 2017, 08:00:27 PM »
I had a beer once with Andrew Light--very bright guy!
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1209 on: July 06, 2017, 09:43:58 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1210 on: July 11, 2017, 01:10:53 AM »
Why Trump Pulling Out of the Paris Agreement Led to a Stronger Global Climate Change Plan
As President Trump mulled pulling the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement on climate change earlier this year, supporters of bold policies to address global warming around the world feared that the U.S. withdrawal would hinder action on the issue.

But on Saturday, with the exception of Trump, the leaders of the world's largest economies gathered at the G20 reaffirmed their commitment to fostering clean energy development and implementing the Paris Agreement on climate change. Instead of attracting other laggards, Trump's decision freed the rest of the world to issue a strong Climate and Energy Action Plan for Growth Saturday that aims to address global warming — and measures aimed at appeasing Trump were mostly absent.

"In the end, the negotiations on climate reflect dissent — all against the United States of America," German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters following the summit, according to a Reuters report.
...
http://time.com/4850421/g20-trump-paris-agreement-climate-change/
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1211 on: July 11, 2017, 04:39:26 AM »
Why Trump Pulling Out of the Paris Agreement Led to a Stronger Global Climate Change Plan
As President Trump mulled pulling the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement on climate change earlier this year, supporters of bold policies to address global warming around the world feared that the U.S. withdrawal would hinder action on the issue.

But on Saturday, with the exception of Trump, the leaders of the world's largest economies gathered at the G20 reaffirmed their commitment to fostering clean energy development and implementing the Paris Agreement on climate change. Instead of attracting other laggards, Trump's decision freed the rest of the world to issue a strong Climate and Energy Action Plan for Growth Saturday that aims to address global warming — and measures aimed at appeasing Trump were mostly absent.

"In the end, the negotiations on climate reflect dissent — all against the United States of America," German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters following the summit, according to a Reuters report.
...
http://time.com/4850421/g20-trump-paris-agreement-climate-change/



This is something I've wondered about for some time, whether the US was doing more to hold back the Paris accord from within, than it can now that it's on the outside. Trade sanctions based on carbon usage might now be a possibility!


Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1212 on: July 11, 2017, 07:16:57 PM »
Morgan Stanley analysis:

“By our forecasts, in most cases favorable renewables economics rather than government policy will be the primary driver of changes to utilities’ carbon emissions levels....  For example, notwithstanding president Trump’s stated intention to withdraw the US from the Paris climate accord, we expect the US to exceed the Paris commitment of a 26-28% reduction in its 2005-level carbon emissions by 2020.”

Renewable energy is becoming so cheap the US will meet Paris commitments even if Trump withdraws
https://qz.com/1024520/renewable-energy-is-becoming-so-cheap-the-us-will-meet-paris-commitments-even-if-trump-withdraws/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1213 on: July 12, 2017, 02:07:08 AM »
Colorado signs on to U.S. Climate Alliance, joining states committed to exceeding Trump’s rejected Paris climate targets
- Gov. Hickenlooper orders statewide greenhouse gas emissions cut
MORRISON – Colorado on Tuesday joined the growing number of states and cities committed to meeting or exceeding the greenhouse gas reduction targets set in the international Paris climate treaty that President Donald Trump rejects.

Gov. John Hickenlooper issued an executive order declaring a goal of cutting statewide greenhouse gas emissions by at least 26 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. Hickenlooper also announced Colorado will sign on to the U.S. Climate Alliance of businesses and states working to capitalize on renewable energy.

Colorado will accelerate work toward climate goals “regardless of what the federal government decides to do,” Hickenlooper said before signing the order at the Red Rocks park overlooking metro Denver.
...
http://www.denverpost.com/2017/07/11/colorado-signs-us-climate-alliance-joining-states-committed-paris-climate-agreement/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1214 on: July 18, 2017, 12:38:34 PM »
California Legislature extends state's cap-and-trade program in rare bipartisan effort to address climate change
California lawmakers voted Monday evening to extend the state’s premiere program on climate change, a victory for Gov. Jerry Brown that included unprecedented Republican support for fighting global warming.

In a break with party leaders and activists in California and Washington, eight Republicans joined with Democrats to continue the cap-and-trade program, which requires companies to buy permits to release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

The legislation would keep the 5-year-old program operating until 2030, providing a key tool for meeting the state’s ambitious goal for slashing emissions. Cap and trade also generates important revenue for building the bullet train from Los Angeles to San Francisco, another priority for the governor....
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-climate-change-vote-republicans-20170717-story.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1215 on: August 05, 2017, 08:17:46 PM »
Official position of United States is now to "work with other countries to help them access and use fossil fuels." Via State Dept:
https://twitter.com/rebleber/status/893581358823505921
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1216 on: August 05, 2017, 09:34:40 PM »
So, the American position is that even though it is pulling out of the Paris Accord as soon as legally possible, it will continue to "negotiate" to "protect US interests" and to provide "guidance for implementing the Paris Agreement", from within.


My own advice would be to rapidly remove whatever legal obstacles are binding America to the pact. To thank them effusively for their proffered guidance, then to bolt the door securely behind them.


This hubris, following so closely on the heels of a widely unpopular sanctions policy, a policy that effectively hobbles Europe's energy choices going forward, may not sit well with many European leaders. Those nations that see relatively clean Russian gas as an alternative to dirty coal, might see a linkage between both the sanctions and the withdrawal from the Paris Accords. Others, more interested in their manufacture for export economies, with balance of trade concerns, have already expressed their doubts about substituting cheap and clean pipeline gas with expensive, fracked, LNG.


Coming as it does while responses to the sanctions are still being debated, this could stiffen European resolve to stand against American interference in their affairs.


Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1217 on: August 06, 2017, 12:24:41 AM »
There is absolutely no justification for Trump pulling out of the Paris Accord.  There were no binding obligations on the US, it is all voluntary.

Trump doesn't know anything about pretty much everything.  He's opposed to the Paris Accord because that black guy he hates agreed to it.  Trump has  two part agenda. 

!) Make himself richer.

2)  Destroy everything Obama achieved.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1218 on: August 07, 2017, 03:44:26 PM »
"Imagine how deeply strange this decision will look 20 years from now. "

U.S. State Department: Today, the US submitted communication to @UN regarding the US intent to withdraw from the #ParisAgreement.
https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/08/273050.htm
https://mobile.twitter.com/StateDept/status/893576442499518466
https://twitter.com/brhodes/status/893875620274372609
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1219 on: August 07, 2017, 04:05:58 PM »
There is absolutely no justification for Trump pulling out of the Paris Accord.  There were no binding obligations on the US, it is all voluntary.

Trump doesn't know anything about pretty much everything.  He's opposed to the Paris Accord because that black guy he hates agreed to it.  Trump has  two part agenda. 

!) Make himself richer.

2)  Destroy everything Obama achieved.

But the one bright spot is: 
Because he (and his administration) are so massively anti-science and anti-progress:  U.S. states, cities, and yes, even most other countries are pleased to show him a defiantly upraised middle finger, redirecting their anger so as to agressively push toward the very goals he claims to despise.

Honestly, he may have markedly increased the amount of climate-related action, now that the Paris Accord has been signed and everyone had sat back in relief, figuring, "OK, that's done, now we can take a break."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1220 on: August 07, 2017, 04:35:56 PM »
Hopefully, information about the true subsidies to fossil fuels (6.5% of global GDP annually), will help decision makers make better climate change decisions:

David Coady et. al. (2017), "How Large Are Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies?", World Development, Volume 91, March 2017, Pages 11-27, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.10.004

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X16304867

Summary: "This paper estimates fossil fuel subsidies and the economic and environmental benefits from reforming them, focusing mostly on a broad notion of subsidies arising when consumer prices are below supply costs plus environmental costs and general consumption taxes.
Estimated subsidies are $4.9 trillion worldwide in 2013 and $5.3 trillion in 2015 (6.5% of global GDP in both years). Undercharging for global warming accounts for 22% of the subsidy in 2013, air pollution 46%, broader vehicle externalities 13%, supply costs 11%, and general consumer taxes 8%. China was the biggest subsidizer in 2013 ($1.8 trillion), followed by the United States ($0.6 trillion), and Russia, the European Union, and India (each with about $0.3 trillion). Eliminating subsidies would have reduced global carbon emissions in 2013 by 21% and fossil fuel air pollution deaths 55%, while raising revenue of 4%, and social welfare by 2.2%, of global GDP."

See also:

Title: "Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/aug/07/fossil-fuel-subsidies-are-a-staggering-5-tn-per-year

Extract: "Typically, people on the street think of a subsidy as a direct financial cost that result in consumers paying a price that is below the opportunity cost of the product (fossil fuel in this case). However, as pointed out by the authors, a more correct view of the costs would encompass:

"... not only supply costs but also (most importantly) environmental costs like global warming and deaths from air pollution and taxes applied to consumer goods in general."

The authors argue, persuasively, that this broader view of subsidies is the correct view because they “reflect the gap between consumer prices and economically efficient prices.”"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1221 on: August 07, 2017, 06:05:00 PM »
If ALEC can spread bad legislation, the "Governator" can spread good legislation!

Schwarzenegger launches new effort to counter Trump on climate
Former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) is launching a database of legislation to help combat climate change in response to President Trump's decision to leave the Paris accord.

According to Schwarzenegger, his new website will empower state legislators to go further than the Trump administration is willing to go on environmental issues.
...
"The message to legislators with the project is now 'you have the power to do it yourselves,'" he told Politico. "The reality is each state now goes to work and passes great legislation that helps them ... make great decisions."
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/345300-schwarzenegger-hits-trump-on-climate
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1222 on: August 08, 2017, 06:25:52 AM »
Honestly, he may have markedly increased the amount of climate-related action

Don't leave out companies/corporations/businesses.  Lots of entities are likely going to be very open to ideas on how to cut their carbon load/reduce energy use as a way to flip Donald a bird.  And many are going to be run by people who are concerned about their children and grandchildren.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1223 on: August 08, 2017, 10:28:08 PM »
Corporations are legally designed to be sociopathic profit-maximizers. If climate action helps profits they will do it, if government legislation forces them to do something they will do it (grudgingly), if public pressure forces them they will do it (again grudgingly). They will not be the leaders that we need. Those have to come from the political sphere.

Again and again corporations have complained about the difficulty of doing something (e.g. seatbelts in cars) only to show how easy it can be once they are forced to. That's why a high carbon tax will work, it tells corporations what is required (less carbon emissions) but allows them to use their creativity and ingenuity to get there.

Instead the corporations buy the politicians and derail anything that would challenge them, especially in the USA. The difference between Obama and Trump is only one of degree, not fundamental. Neither incrementalism (Obama) or outright denial (Trump) get us to where we need to be. A new political force, one not corrupted by corporate lobbyists and oligarch money, is required.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1224 on: August 08, 2017, 10:42:58 PM »
A new political force, one not corrupted by corporate lobbyists and oligarch money, is required.

By the time you create one it will be too late.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1225 on: August 08, 2017, 10:52:55 PM »
Does 'dodgy' national GHG emissions data threaten the Paris accord more than Donald Trump's plan for the US to withdraw from the accord?

Title: "'Dodgy' greenhouse gas data threatens Paris accord"

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-40669449

Extract: "Air monitors in Switzerland have detected large quantities of one gas coming from a location in Italy.

However, the Italian submission to the UN records just a tiny amount of the substance being emitted.

Levels of some emissions from India and China are so uncertain that experts say their records are plus or minus 100%.

These flaws posed a bigger threat to the Paris climate agreement than US President Donald Trump's intention to withdraw, researchers told BBC Radio 4's Counting Carbon programme.

The rules covering how countries report their emissions are currently being negotiated.
But Prof Glen Peters, from the Centre for International Climate Research, in Oslo, said: "The core part of Paris [is] the global stock-takes which are going to happen every five years, and after the stock-takes countries are meant to raise their ambition, but if you can't track progress sufficiently, which is the whole point of these stock-takes, you basically can't do anything.

"So, without good data as a basis, Paris essentially collapses. It just becomes a talkfest without much progress.""
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1226 on: August 08, 2017, 11:57:11 PM »
Corporations are legally designed to be sociopathic profit-maximizers. ...


And the great thing is, clean energy is, more and more, cheaper than the alternatives!  Businesses in deep red states are saying, "I could care less about climate change, but solar and wind and an electric vehicle fleet will improve my bottom line.  That's why we're switching!"  No government forcing required.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1227 on: August 09, 2017, 12:27:56 AM »
"I could care less about climate change, but solar and wind and an electric vehicle fleet will improve my bottom line.  That's why we're switching!"

I suspect many people running corporations are concerned about climate change.  If we assume that there is a high correlation between climate change deniers and Trump supporters then we end up with a high likelihood that deniers are mostly older non-college graduates who haven't been more than marginally successful.

Some companies/execs will want to do the right thing and if the right thing improves their bottom line then it becomes an easy route to take.

Then add in the value of being able to present your company as a "green" operation.  There is some economic value in tooting one's green horn.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1228 on: August 09, 2017, 05:10:18 AM »
Greenwashing is rampant. Really deep cuts in emissions, the type that Anderson calls for, will damage profit levels for a good few years for most companies. The profit motive has its limits without government action.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1229 on: August 09, 2017, 05:11:44 AM »
Does 'dodgy' national GHG emissions data threaten the Paris accord more than Donald Trump's plan for the US to withdraw from the accord?

Title: "'Dodgy' greenhouse gas data threatens Paris accord"

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-40669449


Great catch - a really interesting, and disturbing, program.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1230 on: August 09, 2017, 05:50:35 AM »
Greenwashing is rampant. Really deep cuts in emissions, the type that Anderson calls for, will damage profit levels for a good few years for most companies. The profit motive has its limits without government action.

Switching to LEDs has a very large impact on electricity usage.  And it lowers maintenance costs.  Profits drive switching to LEDs.

Cost savings drive putting solar panels on roofs.  When right-wing Walmart is installing panels on their buildings then you can see the profit motive in action.

Companies are starting to move to battery powered cars and light trucks in order to cut costs.  They will adopt battery powered trucks as they become a lower cost option.

Companies will install more "Ice Bear" systems and upgrade equipment to more efficient models.

None of that needs a push by the government.  Companies that do not save money on energy will lose some edge to their competitors that will switch.  It's how the market works.

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1231 on: August 09, 2017, 09:59:14 AM »
Bob
You're aware I'm sure that the "Ice Bear" systems don't save any electricity, merely cut down on peak energy. When EVs come on line in mass I think they'll be taking a lot of the base power out of the equation.
Water source AC might be a better fit as large energy savings are realistic, especially in warm climes.
Tight government regulation, (think mileage standards), will be needed, as well as many government funded infrastructure projects. Private industry is what got us into this mess.
Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1232 on: August 09, 2017, 04:27:58 PM »
Not only is the USA not serious about re-engaging in the Paris accord, but the State Department is actively promoting the use of fossil fuels:

Title: "Exclusive: U.S. envoys told to be coy on re-engaging in Paris climate deal - cable"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climate-diplomacy-idUSKBN1AO276

Extract: "U.S. diplomats should sidestep questions from foreign governments on what it would take for the Trump administration to re-engage in the global Paris climate agreement, according to a diplomatic cable seen by Reuters.

The cable, sent by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to embassies on Friday, also said diplomats should make clear the United States wants to help other countries use fossil fuels. "
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1233 on: August 09, 2017, 05:31:31 PM »
<snip>
The cable, sent by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to embassies on Friday, also said diplomats should make clear the United States wants to help other countries use fossil fuels. "

Well, of course Tillerson,  the ex-CEO of Exxon pushes this!  ::)  But even now, other countries are often more interested in renewable power over fossil fuels.  And that trend will only increase.  The same way the current U.S. administration claims (falsely) it will increase coal usage, it will find fewer and fewer customers for fossil fuels, even when they reach out to the global stage.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1234 on: August 09, 2017, 07:34:24 PM »
European government officials and diplomats mock and criticize President Donald Trump’s policy and rhetoric behind his back, BuzzFeed reported on Wednesday.

One unnamed European official told BuzzFeed that a group of diplomats plays a word game mocking Trump’s repetitive rhetoric when he speaks in public: “Everything is ‘great,’ ‘very, very great,’ ‘amazing.'”

An unnamed diplomat told BuzzFeed that Trump “has no historical view” and “seems to think the world started when he took office.”

Another unnamed European diplomat said Trump “is obsessed with Obama.”

“It’s his only real position,” the diplomat said. “He will ask: ‘Did Obama approve this?’ And if the answer is affirmative, he will say: ‘We don’t.’ He won’t even want to listen to the arguments or have a debate.”

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/report-european-officials-diplomats-mock-criticize-trump-behind-his-back


I don't think Donald and Oily Rex are going to have a lot of impact on other countries in terms of getting them to use more fossil fuels. 

If anything, Trump has probably caused many countries to beef up their renewable energy programs. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1235 on: August 10, 2017, 12:00:59 AM »
Forbes: businesses tackling climate change risks

Here's How Businesses Can Be Resilient To Climate Change Disruption
“The octopus in a Miami Beach parking garage is a problem for just about every business executive in the country. It shows that no amount of denial can alter the fact that climate change is reshaping our planet. Businesses are already being surprised by climate disruption, and smart leaders are already taking action to get ahead of it.”
 http://snip.ly/83deb?aud=8
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1236 on: August 20, 2017, 07:43:07 PM »
Obviously, the current Paris pledges are insufficient to achieve the goal of limiting global warming to less than 2C increase.  Thus, the linked open access reference discusses one solution to sharing the additional burden required to meet this goal:

Loek Groot & Julia Swart (2017), "Climate change control: the Lindahl solution", Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, pp 1–26, DOI 10.1007/s11027-017-9758-8

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11027-017-9758-8?utm_content=buffer02b6d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate different burden sharing rules with respect to abatement of carbon emissions. We evaluate seven different rules both in terms of their redistributive impact and by the extent to which they realize the aim of optimal abatement. We show that the Lindahl solution, where the burden sharing rule of carbon abatement is determined by each region’s willingness to pay, is to be preferred above the non-cooperative Nash outcome. Poor regions however would prefer the social planner outcome with a global permit market, because then the burden sharing rule has a secondary role of income redistribution by means of transfers from rich to poor, on top of its primary role of assigning abatement burdens. Based on these findings, we argue that in order to control global greenhouse gas emissions, the level of individual country emission abatement effort should be a function of their willingness to pay to curb climate change, rather than their historical emissions or ability to abate."

Extract: "Article 2 of the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference Paris Agreement aims at limiting global warming to well below 2 °C and “Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.”"
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1237 on: August 21, 2017, 12:37:52 AM »
The policies of the countries making the Paris pledge don't even support those pledges, the Paris commitments will not be met. Also, they only pertained to CO2, not CH4, N2O etc. Then of course we have Trump's US pulling out of the agreement all together.

Until the proverbial SHTF hard enough to overcome the joint denial of reality this paper will simply be an intellectual exercise. Also, given the realities of international power relationships I very much doubt that the developing world will get what it wants.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1238 on: August 21, 2017, 02:08:04 AM »
The US is still on track to meet the Paris Accord target.  Trump is highly unlikely to stop the US from reaching the target because progress is largely no longer in the federal government's hands.


rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1239 on: August 23, 2017, 04:04:25 AM »
Climate Action Tracker does not agree with you Bob, rates the US policies as inadequate to meet the Paris INDC.

http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa.html

The EIA reckons that US coal consumption will increase in both 2017 and 2018.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/coal.cfm

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1240 on: August 23, 2017, 11:58:31 AM »
Who gets charged for the 700,000 Tons of coal being sent from the US to Ukraine under a new arraignment?
https://www.rferl.org/a/us-sends-first-coal-shipment-ukraine-bolster-energy-security-xcoal-/28691765.html


[note that the above link is to a 'Radio Free Europe' site & may contain propaganda.]


To clarify, I don't mean who will pay for the coal as Ukraine isn't accustomed to paying the full costs of her energy, but rather which nation should be held responsible for the emissions that the coal will produce?


Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1241 on: August 23, 2017, 05:23:23 PM »
Who gets charged for the 700,000 Tons of coal being sent from the US to Ukraine under a new arraignment?
https://www.rferl.org/a/us-sends-first-coal-shipment-ukraine-bolster-energy-security-xcoal-/28691765.html


[note that the above link is to a 'Radio Free Europe' site & may contain propaganda.]


To clarify, I don't mean who will pay for the coal as Ukraine isn't accustomed to paying the full costs of her energy, but rather which nation should be held responsible for the emissions that the coal will produce?


Terry

The nation that burns the coal.

Germany burns coal for electricity that is used by other countries.  But Germany has the CO2 added to their account.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1242 on: August 23, 2017, 05:34:45 PM »

The nation that burns the coal.

Germany burns coal for electricity that is used by other countries.  But Germany has the CO2 added to their account.

As a side point, if policy makers cared enough about climate change they could globally apply a carbon fee to fossil fuels when they are removed from the ground, which would then penalize the carbon supplier.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1243 on: August 23, 2017, 05:40:03 PM »
they could globally apply a carbon fee to fossil fuels

You're kidding.  Tell me you're kidding.

A global carbon fee? 

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1244 on: August 23, 2017, 05:54:39 PM »
I can see a situation arising in which Country A, exports coal and iron ore to Country B, imports the manufactured ingots, then claims all manner of accolades for it's own Green economy. (Is this what we're doing with China?)


WRT Ukraine, the EU may object to their neighbor's ruining everyone's climate just to spite Russia. Ukraine would really like to join the EU, and actions like this could make it even less likely to occur.


Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1245 on: August 23, 2017, 05:57:20 PM »
they could globally apply a carbon fee to fossil fuels

You're kidding.  Tell me you're kidding.

A global carbon fee?

Actually, I believe that policy makers are politically and psychologically incapable of adequately addressing the climate change challenge; and I am providing the example of COP's inability to implement a global carbon fee as an example of their political and psychological incapability.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1246 on: August 23, 2017, 06:55:00 PM »
Few of the world's countries are run by dictatorships.  Even those countries like China which have strong central non-democratic governments cannot afford to get too far ahead of where their citizens are.  People, in general, are not supportive of a carbon fee.

The idea that there is any possibility of a global carbon fee is just ridiculous.

Please try to look for practical solutions.  Things that move us forward and have a chance of success.

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1247 on: August 23, 2017, 11:27:53 PM »
Few of the world's countries are run by dictatorships.  Even those countries like China which have strong central non-democratic governments cannot afford to get too far ahead of where their citizens are.  People, in general, are not supportive of a carbon fee.

The idea that there is any possibility of a global carbon fee is just ridiculous.

Please try to look for practical solutions.  Things that move us forward and have a chance of success.


Have you asked anyone in BC?
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1248 on: August 24, 2017, 02:09:47 AM »
Never mind federal "policies."   U.S. States are taking matters into their own hands.

Nine U.S. States Seek 30% More in CO2 Cuts as Trump Pushes Coal
Nine states in the U.S. Northeast plan to bolster their target for cutting carbon-dioxide emissions, even as President Trump seeks to revive a coal industry suffering from competition and efforts to stem greenhouse gases.

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, which auctions permits for utilities to buy electricity produced at plants that produce greenhouse gases, proposed to lower its cap on emissions by an additional 30 percent from 2020 to 2030, according to an emailed statement on Wednesday. The auctions have raised more than $2.7 billion to invest in cleaner energy since 2009, the group said.

States from California to Connecticut have stepped up efforts to halt a rise in global temperatures by encouraging reduced use of fossil fuels in power plants and vehicles. The Trump Administration has pushed back, vowing to extract the U.S. from the Paris climate accord and eliminate some regulations on coal companies.

“The success of the RGGI program and the proposals to make it even more effective stand in sharp contrast to the Trump Administration’s shortsighted and wholesale retreat on climate issues,” Connecticut Governor Dannel Malloy said in a separate statement.

According to the draft proposal, the group would set its emissions cap at 75.1 million tons in 2021, and trim that by 2.275 million tons each year. Under current policies, the limit will decline to 78.2 million tons in 2020 and then stay constant.
...
The Natural Resources Defense Council hailed the proposed reductions, which it said would reduce the region’s overall contribution to carbon emissions by 65 percent.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-23/nine-u-s-states-seek-30-more-in-co2-cuts-as-trump-pushes-coal
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1249 on: September 01, 2017, 12:01:14 PM »
Few of the world's countries are run by dictatorships.  Even those countries like China which have strong central non-democratic governments cannot afford to get too far ahead of where their citizens are.  People, in general, are not supportive of a carbon fee.

The idea that there is any possibility of a global carbon fee is just ridiculous.

Please try to look for practical solutions.  Things that move us forward and have a chance of success.
Actually, a carbon fee that gets redistributed as a dividend to voting-age citizens could get decent support from the people. I do believe however that the people in power will not be supportive, and that sadly it will not happen.