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Author Topic: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond  (Read 235158 times)

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #900 on: December 22, 2016, 06:09:35 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Brazil's plan to roll back environment laws draws fire: 'The danger is real'".  This is but one example of the numerous countries (including: Canada, Australia & Team Trump) that may shortly enact policies that will make it impossible for them to meet their Paris goals.  Also, I note that Trump is very supportive of the Keystone XL pipeline.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/21/brazil-environment-laws-indigenous-people


Extract: "Environmental and indigenous activists condemn plan they say would threaten indigenous territories and make compliance with Paris deal impossible".
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #901 on: December 22, 2016, 08:45:00 PM »
India plans nearly 60% of electricity capacity from non-fossil fuels by 2027
Expansion of solar and wind power will help exceed Paris targets by almost half and negate need for new coal-fired power stations
The Indian government has forecast that it will exceed the renewable energy targets set in Paris last year by nearly half and three years ahead of schedule.

A draft 10-year energy blueprint published this week predicts that 57% of India’s total electricity capacity will come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2027. The Paris climate accord target was 40% by 2030.

The forecast reflects an increase in private sector investment in Indian renewable energy projects over the past year, according to analysts.

The draft national electricity plan also indicated that no new coal-fired power stations were likely to be required to meet Indian energy needs until at least 2027, raising further doubts over the viability of Indian mining investments overseas, such as the energy company Adani’s Carmichael mine in Queensland, the largest coalmine planned to be built in Australia.

India’s energy minister, Piyush Goyal, has been appealing to wealthier nations to provide capital to invest in renewable energy projects to help the country reach and exceed the targets agreed in Paris in November 2015.
...
About 50GW of coal power projects being developed in India would be “largely stranded” under the forecast, Buckley said, with official modelling showing that “none of these plants are required before 2022 and only possible before 2027”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/21/india-renewable-energy-paris-climate-summit-target
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #902 on: December 27, 2016, 06:48:40 PM »
NYT weighs in on the U.S. states taking up clean energy despite the Trump administration.

States Will Lead on Climate Change in the Trump Era
State governments will serve as an important bulwark against any attempt by President-elect Donald Trump to roll back the progress the United States has made in addressing climate change. And that’s good news for the planet.

Over the last decade or so, most states have reduced their greenhouse gas emissions by promoting energy efficiency and renewable fuels. These trends should continue as clean energy costs continue to decline and, in some parts of the country, fall below the cost of dirtier fuels like coal.

The Brookings Institution reported this month that between 2000 and 2014, 33 states and the District of Columbia cut carbon emissions while expanding their economies. That list includes red states run by Republican legislatures, like Alaska, Georgia, Tennessee and West Virginia. ...
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/26/opinion/states-will-lead-on-climate-change-in-the-trump-era.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #903 on: December 27, 2016, 06:59:55 PM »
Breaking down Canada's long-awaited climate action plan
Before Canadians head off to enjoy eggnog and holiday cheer, we wanted to provide some additional context to the federal climate action plan (the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change) released on December 9 in Ottawa.
 
This is a major milestone in Canada's history. For the first time, Canada has built the foundation of an effective national climate plan that, if fully implemented, would put the country within striking distance of meeting our 2030 greenhouse gas target. This is a huge step for Canada's response to climate change, but our country must strive to do better.

Why? First, we have the weakest 2030 emissions target of any G7 country, and the national plan is still shy of meeting Canada's Paris commitment. In addition, recent pipeline approvals threaten to slow progress. Clearly, more effort is needed in 2017. But, despite the shortcomings, it is worth celebrating this milestone. This achievement is the result of millions of Canadians making their voices heard in Ottawa....
http://www.davidsuzuki.org/blogs/climate-blog/2016/12/breaking-down-canadas-long-awaited-climate-action-plan/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #904 on: January 05, 2017, 04:29:20 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Renewables investment in UK will fall 95% over next three years – study", and indicates that the UK may not meet their Paris Pact pledge:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/04/renewables-investment-uk-fall-95-percent-three-years-study-subsidy-cuts-emissions-targets

Extract: "Analysis reveals extent of decline because of subsidy cuts and raises concerns about Britain meeting emissions targets".
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #905 on: January 08, 2017, 04:37:54 PM »
UNFCCC:  Annual clean energy investments must triple to $1.25 trillion to reach #SDG7 on #energy by 2030...  @WorldBank
https://twitter.com/unfccc/status/818055474310422528

World Bank report:  Global Tracking Framework 2015
http://trackingenergy4all.worldbank.org/reports


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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #906 on: January 09, 2017, 05:04:49 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "One Year from Today, We'll Have Blown the World's Entire Carbon Budget".  This article claims to be referring the least optimistic calculations; but this statement likely ESLD.

https://www.fastcoexist.com/3066994/one-year-from-today-well-have-blown-the-worlds-entire-carbon-budget
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logicmanPatrick

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #907 on: January 13, 2017, 11:30:52 AM »
Trump's 'open mind' claim is still being repeated by media.

In fact, his so-called open mind is subject to financial considerations, as also Jim (snowball) Inhofe.

Shameless plug alert!
http://www.science20.com/the_chatter_box/blog/psst_wanna_buy_some_truth-221044
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #908 on: January 13, 2017, 05:32:55 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Rex Tillerson Says He Believes in Climate Change — but That May Not Mean Much".  The article indicates that Tillerson recommends retaining a seat within the IPCC UN framework, and that he questions scientists' ability to project future global warming.  While denialists pretend that science's current limitations on making definitive projections on a region by region (and season by season & year by year) basis this century gives them the right to ignore climate science; the truth is that science's limited ability to fully project future climate change is a tremendous danger to our socio-economic, and Earth, systems and we definitely should prepare for upper bound climate cases that the IPCC's AR5 do not even address.

http://time.com/4631614/rex-tillerson-climate-change-paris-agreement/

Extract: "Tillerson questioned scientists’ ability to project future global warming calling that capability “very limited.”"

p.s.: I have limited understanding (i.e. I do not have a paper trail) that NOAA was considering requiring Louisiana to consider up to 4m of eustatic sea level rise by 2100 as an upper bound case, but that they lacked the confidence to address the negative reaction to establishing such an upper bound so they tabled the matter.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2017, 06:09:27 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #909 on: January 18, 2017, 12:13:06 AM »
In last days, Obama Administration transfers $500 million to UN climate action fund
The announcement is expected to prompt a backlash.
The State Department announced Tuesday it would transfer $500 million to the United Nations’ Green Climate Fund (GCF), likely irking Republican lawmakers while keeping what commitments it can to the international community before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Friday.

“The Green Climate Fund is a critical tool that helps catalyze billions of dollars in public and private investment, in countries dealing not only with the challenges of climate change, but the immense economic opportunities that are embedded in the transition to a lower-carbon economy,” a spokesman said....
https://thinkprogress.org/500-million-to-gcf-306414ccc909
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #910 on: January 21, 2017, 05:19:33 PM »
If California were a country, it would be the world's fourteenth largest source of CO2 emissions.

California Undercuts Trump's Inauguration With Aggressive Carbon Reduction Plan
For the last decade, California has enacted a number of measures — everything from a cap-and-trade program to renewable portfolio standards to more fuel efficient vehicles. It’s also heavily involved in water conversation, battery storage and energy efficiency.

Under the plan announced Friday, the emissions trading program would continue through 2030 — a measure that the state considers its most cost effective carbon strategy. To that end, $3.4 billion in cap-and-trade funds have been invested in climate technologies. Meanwhile, the state could also require oil and gas refineries to reduce their heat trapping emissions by 20 percent, and there would be a focus on near zero-emission vehicle technologies.

Okay, so how does California’s aggressive climate change action plan jibe with what is expected to be a “loose” federal carbon strategy? The answer, of course, has multiple layers with one of them involving states rights versus federal oversight.

In the past, Republicans have favored using the states as the testing grounds for new ideas and even those that may run counter to what the central government is espousing. While California’s strategy to achieve carbon cuts is multifaceted, some parts of it — such as setting emissions standards on vehicles — would need federal approval. Ironically, during his U.S. Senate confirmation hearing, Scott Pruitt — designee to fill the role EPA administrator — was ambivalent as to whether he would favor such rights with regard to setting vehicle emissions standards.

Carbon emissions from power plants is a different matter and dependent on the ultimate fate of the Clean Power Plan that requires 32% cuts by 2030 from 2005 levels. Right now, that’s being reviewed by a U.S. district court that is expected to give it the thumb’s up. It would then head to the U.S. Supreme Court that right now is evenly split on the issue. Trump will pick the tie-breaking vote.*
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2017/01/21/california-undercuts-trumps-debut-with-aggressive-carbon-cutting-plan/

*And if a new Supreme Court justice hasn't been seated, a tie vote would mean the decision will fall back to the lower court's decree.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #911 on: January 23, 2017, 08:36:05 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "There's More Than One Way to Blow Up the Paris Climate Deal"

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/01/trump-tillerson-paris-climate-deal

Extract: "The Trump administration could throw a "hand grenade" into global warming negotiations."
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Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #912 on: January 27, 2017, 12:14:25 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "There's More Than One Way to Blow Up the Paris Climate Deal"

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/01/trump-tillerson-paris-climate-deal

Extract: "The Trump administration could throw a "hand grenade" into global warming negotiations."

Coming soon, apparently:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-executive-actions-targeting-international-treaties/story?id=45051443

Once the Paris treaty is targeted by the review, it could easily be put up for vote by the Senate. There's no chance in hell it will make the 2/3 vote necessary for approval (with a negative recommendation from the president), sinking our participation it it permanently. The Supreme Court will hold up domestic law against international law, so don't expect that to save it.

This is -- and continues to be one of the two major Achilles heel to the accord.

In this case, it's a double whammy. Once the treaty goes, Dems lose the INDC justification for keeping the CPP in place.

Both the Accord and the CPP could fall apart pretty damn fast. We'll have to see how this goes, but already targeting the UN isn't a great sign.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #913 on: January 30, 2017, 09:29:43 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Environmentalists Are the "Greatest Threat to Freedom," Says Trump Adviser", and it indicates that Myron Ebell believes that the Trump Administration will withdraw from the Paris climate agreement.

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/01/myron-ebell-paris-climate-agreement

Extract: "Myron Ebell says he expects Trump to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement.

Ebell, who has returned to his role at the anti-regulation think tank the Competitive Enterprise Institute, said on Monday: "The environmental movement is, in my view, the greatest threat to freedom and prosperity in the modern world."
The CEI does not disclose its funders but has in the past received money from the oil giant ExxonMobil. "Our special interest is, I would say, freedom," Ebell said.

Scott Pruitt, Donald Trump's pick to lead the EPA, is a climate change skeptic and has sued the agency he is now set to lead 14 times over its regulations on smog, mercury, and other pollution. His confirmation vote in the Senate is expected on Wednesday."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #914 on: January 30, 2017, 11:57:58 PM »
The linked reference uses ESLD assumptions to indicate that it is not likely that we will stay below the Paris Agreements goal of staying below a 2C GMSTA increase:

Glen P. Peters, et. al. (2017), "Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3202

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3202.html

Extract: "Current emission pledges to the Paris Agreement appear insufficient to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels1. Yet, details are missing on how to track progress towards the ‘Paris goal’, inform the five-yearly ‘global stocktake', and increase the ambition of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). We develop a nested structure of key indicators to track progress through time. Global emissions track aggregated progress, country-level decompositions track emerging trends that link directly to NDCs, and technology diffusion indicates future reductions. We find the recent slowdown in global emissions growth is due to reduced growth in coal use since 2011, primarily in China and secondarily in the United States. The slowdown is projected to continue in 2016, with global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry similar to the 2015 level of 36 GtCO2. Explosive and policy-driven growth in wind and solar has contributed to the global emissions slowdown, but has been less important than economic factors and energy efficiency. We show that many key indicators are currently broadly consistent with emission scenarios that keep temperatures below 2 °C, but the continued lack of large-scale carbon capture and storage threatens 2030 targets and the longer-term Paris ambition of net-zero emissions."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #915 on: February 04, 2017, 05:32:36 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Renewables can't deliver Paris climate goals", hopefully policy makers will take actions to keep fossil fuels in the ground; however, I suspect that they prefer to pretend that geoengineering will prove to be a "magic bullet" to solve all the problems created by their inaction.

http://www.news24.com/Green/News/renewables-cant-deliver-paris-climate-goals-20170131

Extract: "Market momentum alone is not enough, Peters added.
"There need to be a shift in focus," he said in an email exchange.

"Politician seem happy to support wind, solar and electric vehicles through subsidies. But they are not willing to put prices" - a carbon tax, for example - "on fossil fuels."

"Unless the emissions from fossil fuels goes down, the 2°C target is an impossibility.""
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #916 on: February 23, 2017, 08:09:47 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Senate Mulls ‘Kill Switch’ for Obama Methane Rule".  Even if Team Trump does not withdraw the US from the Paris Pact, so long as Congress kills any possibility of the US meeting its commitments to the agreement:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/senate-kill-switch-obama-methane-rule-21184

Extract: "The U.S. Senate is expected to vote soon on whether to use the Congressional Review Act to kill an Obama administration climate regulation that cuts methane emissions from oil and gas wells on federal land. The rule was designed to reduce oil and gas wells’ contribution to climate change and to stop energy companies from wasting natural gas.

The Congressional Review Act is rarely invoked. It was used this month to reverse a regulation for the first time in 16 years and it’s a particularly lethal way to kill a regulation as it would take an act of Congress to approve a similar regulation. Federal agencies cannot propose similar regulations on their own."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #917 on: February 26, 2017, 04:08:48 AM »
The linked reference discusses how to better present new information to people, including COP21 climate negotiators, so that they accept new projections:

Valentina Bosetti, Elke Weber, Loïc Berger, David V. Budescu, Ning Liu & Massimo Tavoni (2017), “COP21 climate negotiators’ responses to climate model forecasts”, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3208

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3208.html

Abstract: “Policymakers involved in climate change negotiations are key users of climate science. It is therefore vital to understand how to communicate scientific information most effectively to this group1. We tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference update their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models’ forecasts. We randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports2, 3. In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia. The experiment was repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar priors, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models’ forecasts than policymakers. There was also no effect of presentation format in the MBA sample. These results highlight the importance of testing visualization tools directly on the population of interest.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #918 on: March 01, 2017, 01:56:03 AM »
Zeke Hausfather:  Updating a classic mitigation trajectory analysis through 2016. Good news is emissions have plateaued but the rapid decline is the hard part
https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/836619321765842944
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #919 on: March 14, 2017, 05:54:21 PM »
The linked reference indicates that the diffusion of green technology needs through the economic landscape needs to accelerate 10-times faster than the historical trend line just to stay in line with the assumptions of the Paris Agreement.

Gabriele Manoli, Gabriel G. Katul & Marco Marani (29 December 2016), "Delay-induced rebounds in CO2 emissions and critical time-scales to meet global warming targets", Earth's Future, DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000431

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000431/full

Extract: "While climate science debates are focused on the attainment of peak anthropogenic CO2 emissions and policy tools to reduce peak temperatures, the human-energy-climate system can hold “rebound” surprises beyond this peak. Following the second industrial revolution, global per capita CO2 emissions (cc) experienced a punctuated growth of about 100% every 60 years, mainly attributable to technological development and its global spread. A model of the human-energy-climate system capable of reproducing past punctuated dynamics shows that rebounds in global CO2 emissions emerge due to delays intrinsic to the diffusion of innovations. Such intrinsic delays in the adoption and spread of low-carbon emitting technologies, together with projected population growth, upset the warming target set by the Paris Agreement. To avoid rebounds and their negative climate effects, model calculations show that the diffusion of climate-friendly technologies must occur with lags one-order of magnitude shorter (i.e., ∼6 years) than the characteristic timescale of past punctuated growth in cc. Radically new strategies to globally implement the technological advances at unprecedented rates are needed if the current emission goals are to be achieved."

Extract: "Gambling on future technological innovations alone to reduce the anthropogenic CO2 emissions [Koningstein and Fork, 2014] is risky and insufficient to avoid unacceptable warming. In fact, accelerating the spread of low-carbon emitting or green technologies is equally necessary to meet the warming targets established by the Paris agreement [Hulme, 2016]. If recent history offers any lessons, it is that diffusion and adoption of green technologies will face known and much discussed challenges. Our quantification of the delays historically associated with such challenges shows that a tenfold acceleration in the spread of green technologies is necessary to elicit some delay in the Doomsday clock [The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board, 2016]"
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #920 on: March 18, 2017, 06:41:41 AM »
The Paris agreement is based on many assumptions that are highly questionable, including:

Climate sensitivity may be higher in our currently warmer climate:
"Currently, our planet is in a warm phase—an interglacial period—and the associated increased climate sensitivity needs to be taken into account for future projections of warming induced by human activities."
at https://phys.org/news/2016-11-climate-sensitive-atmospheric-co2.html

No increases in natural carbon emissions:
"Massive Permafrost thaw documented in Northern Canada" at https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27022017/global-warming-permafrost-study-melt-canada-siberia
"Soils could release much more carbon than expected as climate warms" at https://m.phys.org/news/2017-03-soils-carbon-climate.html
"Warming ponds could accelerate climate change" at https://phys.org/news/2017-02-ponds-climate.html

No ice free Arctic with reduced albedo sucking in the Sun's energy, as covered in other parts of this forum.

The reality is that we most probably should be rapidly cutting emissions toward zero now, as per Kevin Anderson's position. We need a very high carbon price ($200/ton?) and/or individual carbon quotas. Problem is that that would greatly upset the global economy and force a lot of very hard questions.

Trump and his backers are definitely hard climate deniers (denying climate change exists), but the IPCC process may turn out to be one of soft denial (denying the scale and urgency of the challenge). The fact that governments do not seem to be putting in place policies to even meet the Paris agreement says a lot about the social and economic inertia against real actions.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #921 on: March 18, 2017, 02:12:57 PM »
I picked up from another thread on ASIF a graph on the  CIMP6 timeline for preparation of forcings, realisation of experiments and analysis.

Basically, collection of data and design preparation is finished by year end ? Analysis to be completed by December 2019. The politicos will consider it in 2022. Always too little, too late ?

The stately progress of the collected conventional wisdom of the world.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #922 on: March 19, 2017, 04:52:35 AM »
Wow, the climate is outrunning our ability to gain consensus. Hopefully, Trump wont be there in 2022 at least.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #923 on: March 20, 2017, 06:42:36 PM »
The linked reference provides more guidance on meeting the Paris Agreement, if policy makers have the determination to implement any of the measured evaluated in the study.

Aamaas, B., Berntsen, T. K., Fuglestvedt, J. S., and Peters, G. P.: Combining temperature rate and level perspectives in emission metrics, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., doi:10.5194/esd-2017-25, in review, 2017.

http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-25/

Abstract. The ultimate goal of the United Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is reconfirmed by the Paris Agreement, is to stabilize the climate change at level that prevents dangerous anthropogenic interference, and it should be achieved within a time frame that allow the natural systems to adapt. Numerous emission metrics have been developed and applied in relation to the first target, while very few metrics have focused on the second target regarding rate of change. We present here a simple and analytical physical emission metric based on the rate of global temperature change and link that to a metric based on a target for the temperature level. The rate of change perspective either can supplement the level target or can be considered together in one commitment that needs one combined metric. Both emission metrics depend on assumptions on a temperature baseline scenario. We give some illustrations on how this framework can be used, such as different temperature rate and level constraints based on the Representative Concentration Pathways. The selection of the time horizon, for what time period and length the rate constraint is binding, and how to weight the rate and level metrics are discussed. For a combined metric, the values for short-lived climate forcers are larger in periods where the critical rate is binding, with larger temporal increases during the rate constraint period as the atmospheric perturbation timescale of the species becomes shorter. Global CO2 emissions remain the most important, or among the most important, drivers of temperature rates even during periods of binding rate constraints.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #924 on: March 21, 2017, 05:12:00 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Budget Proposal Would Hamper Climate Efforts Abroad", and it indicates that even if the Trump Administration does not pull out of the Paris Agreement, the Trump Administrations proposed budget (if approved) would make it harder for other countries to meet their pledges.

http://www.standard.net/Government/2017/03/16/Budget-Proposal-Would-Hamper-Climate-Efforts-Abroad

Extract: "The Trump administration’s budget proposal would hamper efforts abroad to slow global warming, especially by poor and fast-developing countries, compounding the hazards of America’s retreat from efforts to ease its own climate impacts.

A 54-page proposal released Thursday would end payments to global climate initiatives, such as a United Nations fund that helps poor countries deploy clean energy and adapt to climate change. It would also sharply reduce funding for the World Bank and other development programs."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #925 on: March 23, 2017, 01:37:03 AM »
Paris Climate Agreement could be accomplished with the world economy gaining $19 trillion, says report
A new report is out this week examining the feasibility of the Paris Climate Agreement, with recommendations to policymakers as to how it might be accomplished and what effects its adoption would have on the world economy. The study concludes that, in a conservative case, the world could gain .8% GDP in 2050, or $19 trillion cumulatively between now and then. In a more optimistic scenario, the agreement could actually add 2% to global GDP by 2030. In fact, according to the report, “reducing the impact on human health and mitigating climate change would save between two- and six- times more than the costs of decarbonisation.”
...
The report actually states that additional investment in energy supply would not need to significantly exceed current planned levels in order to meet climate targets – but that planned investment would need to go into clean sources, rather than dirty ones.  The additional net total investment required is just .3% of global GDP, as long as there is a balanced decline of fossil fuel investment and increase of low-carbon investment.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/03/22/paris-climate-agreement-economy/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #926 on: March 24, 2017, 09:34:11 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Could the law driving computing leaps speed up climate protection?"; & the authors indicate that the participants in the Paris Pact should accelerate their rate of carbon emission reductions.

http://www.dw.com/en/could-the-law-driving-computing-leaps-speed-up-climate-protection/a-38072984

Extract: "A new report says the UN's incremental approach to reducing emissions is all wrong. The effort needs to come on strong early - and lessons can be learned from the evolution of computing."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #927 on: March 25, 2017, 08:21:23 PM »
Countries Keep Joining the Paris Climate Agreement
Countries from all corners of the world continue to formally join the Paris Agreement in another sign that international climate action will continue in the Trump-era. Since Trump was elected president, 34 countries have formally joined the Paris Agreement, with 16 countries taking that step since the beginning of 2017. This brings the total number of parties to the Paris Agreement to 137, accounting for over 82 percent of the world’s emissions. ...
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/jake-schmidt/countries-keep-joining-paris-climate-agreement
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Andre

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #928 on: March 26, 2017, 02:05:32 PM »
Scientists made a detailed “roadmap” for meeting the Paris climate goals. It’s eye-opening.

http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/3/23/15028480/roadmap-paris-climate-goals

Abstract:
They start with the big picture: To hit the Paris climate goals without geoengineering, the world has to do three broad (and incredibly ambitious) things:

1) Global CO2 emissions from energy and industry have to fall in half each decade. That is, in the 2020s, the world cuts emissions in half. Then we do it again in the 2030s. Then we do it again in the 2040s. They dub this a “carbon law.” Lead author Johan Rockström told me they were thinking of an analogy to Moore’s law for transistors; we’ll see why.

2) Net emissions from land use — i.e., from agriculture and deforestation — have to fall steadily to zero by 2050. This would need to happen even as the world population grows and we’re feeding ever more people.

3) Technologies to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere have to start scaling up massively, until we’re artificially pulling 5 gigatons of CO2 per year out of the atmosphere by 2050 — nearly double what all the world’s trees and soils already do.


This is the original study it is based on:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269.full


DrTskoul

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #929 on: March 26, 2017, 02:39:43 PM »
Source: http://www.seia.org/research-resources/development-timeline-utility-scale-solar-power-plant

I think what has been possibly grossly underestimated ( a large proportion of scientists are not at all familiar with industrial mega projects) :

1) timeline from project concept to lights on ( see graphic below )
2) availability of skilled labor - in most developed nations this is a problem right now
3) timeline required to ramp up production (i.e. build new plants) of raw materials for the massive increase of energy projects

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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #930 on: March 26, 2017, 03:47:17 PM »
“Someone should do something. But that someone clearly isn’t going to be the federal government.”

Citizens must hold government accountable on climate
By Bill McKibben
...So who’s going to stand up? The answer, for the moment, is states and cities. On Wednesday, the governors of the West Coast states and the mayors of most of its big cities put out a stirring joint message: “We speak as a region of over 50 million people with a combined GDP of $2.8 trillion. There is no question that to act on climate is to act in our best economic interests. Through expanded climate policies, we have grown jobs and expanded our economies while cleaning our air.” They would, the officials promised, keep at it. They added that they hoped other local and regional leaders would “join us in leading and re-affirming our commitment to cut carbon emissions and reverse the damaging impacts to our communities of unfettered pollution.” ...
https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/03/23/citizens-must-hold-government-accountable-climate/g2mCXt9rZZtrfiRZjNOs2O/story.html
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #931 on: March 26, 2017, 10:40:56 PM »
Scientists made a detailed “roadmap” for meeting the Paris climate goals. It’s eye-opening.

http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/3/23/15028480/roadmap-paris-climate-goals

Abstract:
They start with the big picture: To hit the Paris climate goals without geoengineering, the world has to do three broad (and incredibly ambitious) things:

1) Global CO2 emissions from energy and industry have to fall in half each decade. That is, in the 2020s, the world cuts emissions in half. Then we do it again in the 2030s. Then we do it again in the 2040s. They dub this a “carbon law.” Lead author Johan Rockström told me they were thinking of an analogy to Moore’s law for transistors; we’ll see why.

2) Net emissions from land use — i.e., from agriculture and deforestation — have to fall steadily to zero by 2050. This would need to happen even as the world population grows and we’re feeding ever more people.

3) Technologies to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere have to start scaling up massively, until we’re artificially pulling 5 gigatons of CO2 per year out of the atmosphere by 2050 — nearly double what all the world’s trees and soils already do.


This is the original study it is based on:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269.full


That is the most depressing thing I've read in some time.


When we can't even accept the expressed will of the people of Crimea, we're expected to believe that the resource rich nations will give up half of the value of their assets every ten years to keep things from getting worse fifty years from now?


In the West, long range planning is a freeway that won't open until just before the next election. China does better, they have five year plans.


Is there an example anywhere, at any time, of a nation willingly devaluing her assets now, not for a better tomorrow, but for a future that won't be worst than the present? This isn't planting an orchard to provide peaches for your children. This is plowing under an orchard so that the village's grandchildren will have open space.


Some animal somewhere may be capable of such sacrifice and foresight, but it isn't here, and it isn't human.


Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #932 on: March 28, 2017, 12:13:36 AM »
EPA chief Scott Pruitt’s foot stays firmly planted in mouth; doesn’t know India and China signed Paris Climate Agreement
https://electrek.co/2017/03/27/scott-pruitt-epa-paris-agreement-india-china/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #933 on: March 29, 2017, 01:45:25 PM »
The linked reference is entitled: "Vast majority of EU countries set to miss Paris Agreement goals, research finds".

https://www.edie.net/news/6/Vast-majority-of-EU-countries-set-to-miss-Paris-Agreement-goals--research-finds/

Extract: "Only three European countries are on course to achieve the Paris Agreement targets, according to research which ranks the UK in fifth position on its progress towards the landmark climate treaty."

See also the linked ranking chart:
https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/2017_03_EU_Climate_Leader_Board_policy_brief_final.pdf
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #934 on: April 04, 2017, 05:59:18 PM »
This is what I see as the UN IPCC "soft denial" process:

1. Set emission target reductions that are not large enough to impact the current neoliberal growth paradigm - as that is way more important to save than the future of human civilization. As goldilocks would say "not too fast and not too slow - just right".

2. If this means that future and unproven technologies have to be assumed in vast quantities (e.g. CCS and BECCS, grid-scale battery backup ...) then do so. Being completely unrealistic in the future to fit the current "political reality".

3. If this means that the probability of natural positive feedback loops (albedo, soil carbon etc.) and newer science (e.g. ice sheet cliff mechanical failure) have to be ignored then do so. Huge and lengthy bureaucratic processes and a need for "scientific consensus" will work well here, rather than the "precautionary principal"

4. If needed, assume ridiculously low benchmark probabilities for success - such as 66% or 50%. Lower probabilities of success than in one round of Russian Roulette; definitely lower than the acceptable levels for most everyday decisions let alone the survival of human civilization.

5. Assume that the "free market" is omniscient and infallible, so drive everything through market mechanisms which will mean more profitable opportunities. Invite big corporations "inside the tent", especially those responsible for most of the emissions, to advise on such market mechanisms and the joys of "self-regulation". Keep the average citizen well away from the tent, with force if need be. Or just pick a location that is really hard to get to.

6. Make the whole thing non-binding

The fact that most countries seem to be failing miserably at meeting targets set through the above process is truly depressing. What I see for the next UN IPCC is a grudging acceptance of newer science by policy makers, a general "oops" about failing the previous targets, and much more discussions about geo-engineering (which will provide lots of profit-making opportunities) and a greater infatuation with eco-modernist technologies (more profit making opportunities). The "rinse and repeat" cycle goes around and around.

The only options, short of major civil unrest, seem to be the quick path to disaster (the hard climate deniers such as Trump) and a slightly slower path to disaster (the soft deniers, such as Obama and the whole current UN IPCC process).

oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #935 on: April 08, 2017, 11:10:07 AM »
So true and depressing rboyd.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #936 on: April 09, 2017, 04:07:06 PM »
This Japan Times opinion piece suggests that boycotting American products would be an appropriate response if the U.S. president reneges on the Paris agreement.

Is it time to boycott America?
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2017/04/07/commentary/world-commentary/time-boycott-america/
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #937 on: April 11, 2017, 09:04:33 PM »
Most countries run a trade surplus with the United States, with Japan having a US$70 billion surplus in goods (China's is five times as big). A trade embargo would be the economic equivalent of hara-kiri, and could also help "make America great again" as manufacturing was brought back to the US as it retaliated (which it would). The EU surplus with the U.S. is about US$150 billion.

For Japan there is also the issue of complete dependence upon the U.S. military to counter-balance the resurgent China, and to protect the Middle East oil shipments that it is dependent upon.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #938 on: April 17, 2017, 09:15:42 PM »
Corporate America isn't backing Trump on climate
Corporate America is uniting on climate change.

Consumer brands and industrial giants have been supporting government action on climate change for years. In a shift that is changing the debate, the biggest and most important U.S. energy companies are now dropping their resistance to a global climate deal.

Why it matters: Broader corporate backing of global action on climate change is helping push President Trump away from his campaign promise to pull out of the climate deal, which was struck by nearly 200 nations in Paris two years ago to slow the growth of global greenhouse gas emissions. ...
https://www.axios.com/corporate-america-isnt-backing-trump-on-climate-2353777108.html
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #939 on: April 17, 2017, 09:33:53 PM »
It's stunning to me that such an article can still repeat the "cleaner burning natural gas" fallacy without accepting the science on fugitive methane emissions. If progress will be judged by a move from coal to gas so that the fossil fuel companies can burnish their images, then it is no progress at all. "Soft Denial (and greenwashing)" vs "Hard Denial".

A reality-based approach would be driving for direct government action to cut emissions significantly now. The UN IPCC, and it seems the media, provides a wonderful smokescreen for the soft-deniers. Trump will still destroy the EPA's ability to regulate carbon and other pollutants, gut the regulatory framework and defund NASA's climate research. If he stays within the non-binding, soft-denying, climate agreement. so what? Most countries that signed are already on the way to missing their commitments (and those commitments should be on a CO2e basis, not just CO2).

A brilliant case of reducing expectations, so the majority will be happy with less of a commitment to reducing emissions.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #940 on: April 18, 2017, 07:12:05 PM »
I am coming across more and more of the creative ways that countries seem to be cheating on measures of their carbon emissions. The most obvious is of course the focus on CO2 rather than CO2 equivalents, given the big jumps in methane emissions this decade. Second is later big upward statistical revisions in China's coal statistics.

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/world/asia/china-burns-much-more-coal-than-reported-complicating-climate-talks.html?_r=0

Australia seems to have come up with a great idea, simply overcount previous levels of emissions, so the reduction target is set from a much higher level than it should be!

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/10/australia-overstating-greenhouse-gas-forecasts-making-climate-targets-easier

New Zealand seems to have been a big player in fraudulent Emissions Trading Schemes with the Ukraine and Russia to offset their own emissions. "The main purpose the ETS has actually served to date is to enable our Government to indirectly accumulate huge quantities of cheap (and as we now know, fraudulent) carbon offsets, which it intends to use to claim we are meeting our climate commitments for years into the future." New Zealand was just the worst case, lots of other countries got in on this con.

http://morganfoundation.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/ClimateCheat_Report9.pdf

"The Stockholm Environment Institute reported last year almost 75% of carbon credits generated by Russia and Ukraine could be fraudulent. There have been similar findings with regard to China, India and elsewhere."

http://www.torontosun.com/2016/07/23/call-it-cap-and-fraud

Do you laugh at the farcical nature of this, or do you cry?
« Last Edit: April 18, 2017, 07:20:54 PM by rboyd »

P-maker

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #941 on: April 18, 2017, 09:15:55 PM »
I'd call it Crap and Fraud!

The Crap is in the mainstream media and the Fraud is in the ministries of finance...

No political legitimacy what-so-ever and no-one to raise a flag at any time...

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #942 on: April 19, 2017, 05:44:00 PM »
Another scam seems to be biofuels, especially North American wood chips used to replace coal in the UK and palm oil for biodiesel.  Corn ethanol is not even net energy positive, let alone climate friendly. Seems that corporations are making out like bandits sucking up the subsidies for all these "climate friendly" biofuels.

Sugarcane ethanol, grown in Brazilian conditions, does seem to be quite climate change positive.

Started a new subject to cover biofuels.


DrTskoul

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #943 on: April 19, 2017, 07:30:38 PM »
Another scam seems to be biofuels, especially North American wood chips used to replace coal in the UK and palm oil for biodiesel.  Corn ethanol is not even net energy positive, let alone climate friendly. Seems that corporations are making out like bandits sucking up the subsidies for all these "climate friendly" biofuels.

Sugarcane ethanol, grown in Brazilian conditions, does seem to be quite climate change positive.

Started a new subject to cover biofuels.

+1
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #944 on: April 21, 2017, 02:22:04 AM »
Walmart Launches Project Gigaton to Reduce Emissions in Company’s Supply Chain
Through release of a sustainability toolkit, Walmart asks suppliers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by one gigaton – the equivalent to taking more than 211 million passenger vehicles off of U.S. roads for an entire year

Today, during Walmart’s annual Milestone Summit, the company launched a sustainability platform inviting suppliers to join Walmart in committing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions resulting from their operations and supply chains. Dubbed Project Gigaton, this initiative will provide an emissions reduction toolkit to a broad network of suppliers seeking to eliminate one gigaton of emissions, focusing on areas such as manufacturing, materials and use of products by 2030. That’s the equivalent to taking more than 211 million passenger vehicles off of U.S. roads and highways for a year....
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170419005362/en/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #945 on: April 21, 2017, 02:23:00 AM »
Walmart Launches Project Gigaton to Reduce Emissions in Company’s Supply Chain
Through release of a sustainability toolkit, Walmart asks suppliers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by one gigaton – the equivalent to taking more than 211 million passenger vehicles off of U.S. roads for an entire year

Today, during Walmart’s annual Milestone Summit, the company launched a sustainability platform inviting suppliers to join Walmart in committing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions resulting from their operations and supply chains. Dubbed Project Gigaton, this initiative will provide an emissions reduction toolkit to a broad network of suppliers seeking to eliminate one gigaton of emissions, focusing on areas such as manufacturing, materials and use of products by 2030. That’s the equivalent to taking more than 211 million passenger vehicles off of U.S. roads and highways for a year....
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170419005362/en/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #946 on: May 02, 2017, 09:02:48 PM »
I hope Trump listens to his daughter Ivanka on climate change, Mike Bloomberg says
...
As part of the deal, the U.S. under Trump's predecessor President Barack Obama committed to reducing its emissions by between 26 percent and 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025.

"Even if [Trump] doesn't change his mind, it's the private sector that has reduced greenhouse gases. We are two-thirds of the way already towards the targets for 2025 without any help from the federal government," Bloomberg said. "So we're going to make this regardless."
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/02/i-hope-trump-listens-to-ivanka-on-climate-change-mike-bloomberg-says.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #947 on: May 05, 2017, 05:44:05 PM »
The linked article is entitled: " US tells China it has ‘no plan yet’ to meet its 2020 climate target", and it indicates that the Trump Administration has formally stated that it has no intentions of meeting America's Paris Pact pledges.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/us-tells-china-it-has-no-plan-yet-to-meet-its-2020-climate-target

Extract: "The US has no plan yet for how to meet its 2020 climate target and has made no analysis of the impact of recent policy changes, according to an official submission to the UN.

The details emerged in a series of terse, repetitive answers to an international climate action peer-review process, known as the Multilateral Assessment. The US submission, which was published this week, says “jobs, economic growth and energy independence” are its priority.

The assessment process sees countries ask each other questions about progress towards their climate pledges. The process works on a rolling basis, with the US one of 18 nations currently undergoing review along with other major emitters Russia and Japan. Note that the UK completed its review last year."
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #948 on: May 05, 2017, 09:03:03 PM »
" the Trump Administration has formally stated that it has no intentions of meeting America's Paris Pact pledges"

The Trump administration is being more and more ignored by both parties.  In his first 100 days Trump accomplished essentially nothing.  He did a lot of stuff, but so ineffectively that few changes resulted.  Trump insisted on money for his wall in the most recent budget action but got none and other requests were ignored.

Wind and solar have become so inexpensive in the US that it would take legislation to stop them.  And Congress won't pass that sort of legislation.  Congress won't vote back the subsidies for wind and solar and Trump doesn't have the authority to stop them.

Storage is taking off.  The price has dropped low enough that utilities are installing storage to save money.  And storage will only get cheaper.  Can't see how Trump can make storage more expensive.

EVs are on track to be cheaper to manufacture than ICEVs within five years.  Trump can't stop EV/battery prices from falling. 

Efficiency supports itself.  If businesses see an improvement to their bottom line by cutting energy use, then they'll cut energy use.  Trump won't interfer.

Plus all these cost drop/efficiency things are global.  Trump has no power outside the US to add to his very small power within.

Where the US might no meet its Paris target is the temporary lack of pushing things like carbon prices.  But Trump is very unlikely to be around long. 


Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #949 on: May 06, 2017, 07:38:12 PM »
U.S.:  Modest Climate Change Bill Draws Sponsors From Both Sides of the Aisle
A small but increasingly vocal group of Republicans is embracing the reality of global warming and taking small steps to press the issue in Congress.
A bipartisan bill introduced in the U.S. House on Thursday would create a commission to look for economically viable solutions to climate change. Amid the pro-fossil-fuels push by the Trump administration, the effort reflects how a small but increasingly vocal group of Republicans is embracing the reality of climate change and pressing the issue in Congress through modest steps.

This is the second time the bill, called the Climate Solutions Commission Act, has been introduced, after failing to pass in 2016.

It would establish a bipartisan National Climate Solutions Commission, which would conduct a comprehensive review of what can be done in both the private and public sectors to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while growing the economy and protecting jobs. If passed, it also would direct the Government Accountability Office to report on the financial tools, policies and institutions that can help reduce emissions while protecting economic growth.
...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04052017/bipartisan-climate-change-bill-cut-emissions-save-jobs-economy
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