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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #950 on: May 06, 2017, 07:38:12 PM »
U.S.:  Modest Climate Change Bill Draws Sponsors From Both Sides of the Aisle
A small but increasingly vocal group of Republicans is embracing the reality of global warming and taking small steps to press the issue in Congress.
Quote
A bipartisan bill introduced in the U.S. House on Thursday would create a commission to look for economically viable solutions to climate change. Amid the pro-fossil-fuels push by the Trump administration, the effort reflects how a small but increasingly vocal group of Republicans is embracing the reality of climate change and pressing the issue in Congress through modest steps.

This is the second time the bill, called the Climate Solutions Commission Act, has been introduced, after failing to pass in 2016.

It would establish a bipartisan National Climate Solutions Commission, which would conduct a comprehensive review of what can be done in both the private and public sectors to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while growing the economy and protecting jobs. If passed, it also would direct the Government Accountability Office to report on the financial tools, policies and institutions that can help reduce emissions while protecting economic growth.
...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04052017/bipartisan-climate-change-bill-cut-emissions-save-jobs-economy
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #951 on: May 06, 2017, 08:19:55 PM »
U.S.:  Modest Climate Change Bill Draws Sponsors From Both Sides of the Aisle
A small but increasingly vocal group of Republicans is embracing the reality of global warming and taking small steps to press the issue in Congress.
Quote
A bipartisan bill introduced in the U.S. House on Thursday would create a commission to look for economically viable solutions to climate change. Amid the pro-fossil-fuels push by the Trump administration, the effort reflects how a small but increasingly vocal group of Republicans is embracing the reality of climate change and pressing the issue in Congress through modest steps.

This is the second time the bill, called the Climate Solutions Commission Act, has been introduced, after failing to pass in 2016.

It would establish a bipartisan National Climate Solutions Commission, which would conduct a comprehensive review of what can be done in both the private and public sectors to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while growing the economy and protecting jobs. If passed, it also would direct the Government Accountability Office to report on the financial tools, policies and institutions that can help reduce emissions while protecting economic growth.
...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04052017/bipartisan-climate-change-bill-cut-emissions-save-jobs-economy

The Republican sponsors...

Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY-21)
Rep. Ryan Costello (PA-06)
Rep. Carlos Curbelo (FL-26)
Rep. Mark Amodei (NV-02)
Rep. Don Bacon (NE-02)
Rep. Barbara Comstock (VA-10)
Rep. John Faso (NY-19)
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-08)
Rep. John Katko (NY-24)
Rep. Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02)
Rep. Mia Love (UT-04)
Rep. Brian Mast (FL-18)
Rep. Pat Meehan (PA-07)
Rep. Tom Reed (NY-23)
Rep. David Reichert (WA-08)
Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27)
Rep. Mark Sanford (SC-01)
Rep. Mike Coffman (CO-06)

Pretty much from the states one would expect.  But this is, IMHO, a major breakthrough.  Republicans up for election in just over a year who have decided that they can go public with climate concerns.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #952 on: May 06, 2017, 08:21:06 PM »
And the resolution text -


Quote
RESOLUTION TEXT H. Res. 195
Expressing the commitment of the House of Representatives to conservative environmental stewardship.

Whereas it is a conservative principle to protect, conserve, and be good stewards of our environment, responsibly plan for all market factors, and base our policy decisions in science and quantifiable facts on the ground;

Whereas prudent, fact-based stewardship of our economy and our environment is a critical responsibility for all Americans in order to ensure that we preserve our great Nation for future generations;

Whereas there has been a marked increase in extreme weather events across the United States, including more frequent heat waves, extreme precipitation, wildfires, and water scarcity;

Whereas this has had noticeable, negative impacts that are expected to worsen in every region of the United States and its territories, including, among other significant weather events and environmental disruptions, longer and hotter heat waves, more severe storms, worsening flood and drought cycles, growing invasive species and insect problems, threatened native plant and wildlife populations, rising sea levels, and, when combined with a lack of proper forest management, increased wildfire risk;

Whereas increased pollutants and other factors contribute to local, regional, and national environmental and human health impacts, including increased mercury in the fish we eat, elevated asthma attacks in our children, acid rain, smog, degraded water quality, urban heat islands, and rapid storm water runoff that leads to costly infrastructure projects;

Whereas the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review states that the effects of a changing climate are “threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions”;

Whereas, if left unaddressed, the consequences of a changing climate have the potential to adversely impact all Americans, hitting vulnerable populations hardest, harming productivity in key economic sectors such as construction, agriculture, and tourism, saddling future generations with costly economic and environmental burdens, and imposing additional costs on State and Federal budgets that will further add to the long-term fiscal challenges that we face as a Nation;

Whereas any efforts to mitigate the risks of, prepare for, or otherwise address our changing climate and its effects should not constrain the United States economy, especially in regards to global competitiveness; and

Whereas there is increasing recognition that we can and must take meaningful and responsible action now to address this issue: Now, therefore, be it

Resolved, That the House of Representatives commits to working constructively, using our tradition of American ingenuity, innovation, and exceptionalism, to create and support economically viable, and broadly supported private and public solutions to study and address the causes and effects of measured changes to our global and regional climates, including mitigation efforts and efforts to balance human activities that have been found to have an impact.

Corner has been turned.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #953 on: May 06, 2017, 08:56:41 PM »
At least it acknowledges that 2025 is "out of scope" for the current disaster of an administration.

US tells China it has ‘no plan yet’ to meet its 2020 climate target
Quote
The US has no plan yet for how to meet its 2020 climate target and has made no analysis of the impact of recent policy changes, according to an official submission to the UN.
...
In its official response, the US administration says it has no plan to meet its 2020 climate target using carbon offsets. It adds:

“The Administration is reviewing existing policies and regulations in the context of a focus on strengthening US economic growth and promoting jobs for American workers, and will not support policies or regulations that have adverse effects on energy independence and US competitiveness.”

This pro-forma response is repeated six times. Elsewhere, the US says it “do[es] not have updated information” about the impact of recent policy announcements on emissions. It adds that a question about its 2025 target is “outside the scope” of the assessment process.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/us-tells-china-it-has-no-plan-yet-to-meet-its-2020-climate-target
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #954 on: May 06, 2017, 11:48:19 PM »
2025 is for the next Trump administration, which hopefully will only ever exist in our nightmares.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #955 on: May 07, 2017, 12:21:35 AM »
The three linked article all indicate that collectively we are not doing enough to effectively fight climate change:

The first linked article is entitled: "The great climate silence: we are on the edge of the abyss but we ignore it":

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/05/the-great-climate-silence-we-are-on-the-edge-of-the-abyss-but-we-ignore-it?CMP=share_btn_fb

Extract: "We continue to plan for the future as if climate scientists don't exist.  The greatest shame is the absence of a sense of tragedy."

The second linked article is entitled: "No country on Earth is taking the 2 degree climate target seriously", see the associated attached image indicating how much/fast anthropogenic GHG emissions would need to be cut (making ESLD assumptions) to limit GMSTA above pre-industrial to 1.5 & 2C:

https://www.vox.com/2016/10/4/13118594/2-degrees-no-more-fossil-fuels

Extract: "Are any of the countries that signed the Paris agreement taking the actions necessary to achieve that target?

No. The US is not. Nor is the world as a whole.

The actions necessary to hold to 2 degrees, much less 1.5 degrees, are simply outside the bounds of conventional politics in most countries."

See also the third linked article entitled: "We would need 1.7 Earths to make our consumption sustainable":

https://www.washingtonpost.com/classic-apps/we-would-need-17-earths-to-make-our-consumption-sustainable/2017/05/04/2b2c2de8-30e2-11e7-8674-437ddb6e813e_story.html?utm_campaign=buffer&utm_content=buffer232c0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_term=.eb4104fc0604

« Last Edit: May 07, 2017, 06:41:28 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #956 on: May 07, 2017, 07:08:00 PM »
Do your linked articles take into consideration the rapidly falling cost of renewable energy, the accelerating rates of installation, the global drops in coal consumption, and moderately affordable long range EVs coming to market?  How about rapidly improving efficiency?

Obviously we waited longer than we should have to get started lowing GHG emissions but we now have started.  And we are rapidly increasing our efforts.




rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #957 on: May 08, 2017, 12:28:57 AM »
All Renewables Capacity Growth Rate Stable Since 2009

"Similar to last year, renewable generation capacity increased by 161 GW or +8.7% during 2016, continuing the trend since 2009 of about 8-9% annual capacity growth." (From IRENA). No acceleration in the growth trend of installed renewables capacity since 2009. With forecast reductions in capacity growth through 2022 (see below) the capacity growth rate of renewables may decrease over the next 5 years.

http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/RE_stats_highlights_2017.pdf[/url]

Solar and Wind Capacity Growth Falling 2017-2022

GTM Research is forecasting only a 5.2% annualized growth rate in new solar installations through 2022, which represents a declining percentage increase in cumulative installed capacity. Basically a 5 year plateau after the big policy-driven jump in 2016. They see a possible serious downside risk of China cutting their FIT early (a big impact given the heavy share of China in capacity growth recently).

From the IRENA numbers, wind installations fell sharply in 2016 year-over-year, and were hardly higher than in 2012. The Global Wind Energy Council expects the growth rate in new wind installations of about 7% between 2017 and 2021, after the big drop in 2016. Represents a declining percentage increase in cumulative installed capacity (to 10% in 2021).

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/global-solar-market-forecast-to-hit-85gw-in-2017-with-surge-in-china

http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Capacity_Statistics_2017.pdf

http://www.gwec.net/global-figures/market-forecast-2012-2016/

To get the required acceleration we need those government policies which are not being put in place, like a meaningful carbon price, ongoing FITs etc. At the current rate we could be pushing 450ppm CO2, 550 ppm CO2e by the mid 2030's, plus an ice-free Arctic, plus the climate forcing of reduced aerosols from coal generation and new shipping emission rules. Not enough time for market-forces alone to get the job done.

If we properly count GHG emissions, (i.e. including methane, nitrous oxide etc.), anthropogenic GHG emissions are still increasing. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2e are going up at 3-4ppm per year.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html
« Last Edit: May 08, 2017, 12:52:52 AM by rboyd »

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #958 on: May 08, 2017, 12:51:47 AM »
Quote
represents a declining percentage increase in cumulative installed capacity.

No.  You need to concentrate on the word "growth".

Y1 100 + 10 = 10% growth

Y2 110 + 11 = 10% growth

Y3 120 + 12 = 10% growth

Each year the overall amount of installation increases while "installation growth" stays constant at 10%.

Assume a 1,000 capacity total and assume it stays constant.  FF are shut down as wind is added.   

Year 1 the amount of wind is 10%.  100/1,000

Year 2 the amount of wind is 11%  110/1,000

Year 3 the amount of wind is 12.1%  120/1,000

Year 4 the amount of wind is 13.2%  130/1,000

There is no declining percentage increase.   

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #959 on: May 08, 2017, 01:37:37 AM »
Bob, the rate of growth in global installed capacity of wind and solar is forecast to fall drastically in the case of solar (from 30%+ to 5.2% 14%), and significantly in the case of wind (from averaging 15% to about 10%) in the years 2017 to 2022. This will significantly drop the growth rate of overall renewables (wind, solar, hydro, bio-energy etc.)

5% 14% annual growth gives a doubling rate of just over 14 5 years, 10% gives a doubling rate of just over 7 years. Not fast enough to reduce fossil fuel usage as much as needed, given the current small share of renewables in global energy usage and the ongoing growth in that usage. Hence the need for significant changes in government policy.

You can disagree with the forecasts of the industry bodies/independent consultants, but if they are right this is a very major problem.

Solar



Wind






« Last Edit: May 08, 2017, 07:38:08 AM by rboyd »

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #960 on: May 08, 2017, 03:14:07 AM »
Interesting report from the World Energy Council, stating three different future scenarios which were created by a series of interdisciplinary expert workshops. Very balanced and informative document about the challenges of changing the global energy system.

Still probably a bit too optimistic as doesn't account for any positive climate feedbacks, such as an ice-free Arctic and increased natural carbon emissions. Helps show the scale and complexity of the challenges ahead though.

https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/World-Energy-Scenarios-2016_Full-Report.pdf

Modern Jazz: market forces dominant

"The outcome in 2060 is a world with a diverse set of resilient and lower-carbon energy systems.
A highly complex and competitive market landscape drives efficiency, innovation, open access to
information and rapid deployment of new technologies"

- Utility-scale Low Carbon Energy Producers, Distribution Platform Optimizers,
and Energy Solution Integrators
- 25% Primary Energy Demand growth (fossil fuel share 63% in 2060)
- 28% of Final Energy Consumption is electricity (30% wind and solar by 2060)
- Coal Peaks on 2020, oil in 2030
- Carbon intensity reduced by 3.9% per annum 2014-2060
- Oil share of transport goes from 92% to 67% in 2060 (electric cars, hybrids, biofuels, less cars)
- Overshoots the 2 degree centigrade carbon budget, on track for 3 degrees, emissions peak in 2030

Unfinished Symphony: highest level of policy intervention

"By 2060, the world is “ticking on the same clock” and has shifted to a resilient, integrated, global
low-carbon energy system. There is global unified action on security, environmental and economic issues, and global institutional and national governments support enabling technologies"

- Highly integrated models and funding
mechanisms to allocate the system costs of renewables to avoid zero-marginal cost destruction
- 10% Primary Energy Demand growth (fossil fuel share 50% in 2060)
- 29% of Final Energy Consumption is electricity (39% wind and solar by 2060)
- Coal Peaks in 2020, oil in 2030
- Carbon intensity reduced by 4.7% per annum 2014-2060
- Oil share of transport goes from 92% to 60% in 2060 (electric cars, hybrids, biofuels, less cars)
- Overshoots the 2 degree centigrade carbon budget by a little, and require negative emissions technologies from mid-century onwards. Emissions peak in 2030.


Hard Rock

"The outcome in 2060 is a fractured world, with a diverse set of economic, energy and sustainability
outcomes. Nationalist interests prevent countries from collaborating effectively on a global level,
with limited attention to addressing climate change. Technologies are mandated based on availability
of local resources."

- A much more fragmented approach
- 34% Primary Energy Demand growth (fossil fuel share to 70% by 2060)
- 25% of Final Energy Consumption is electricity (20% wind and solar by 2060)
- Coal Peaks in 2040, oil plateaus 2040-2050
- Oil share of transport goes from 92% to 78% in 2060 (electric cars, hybrids, biofuels, less cars)
- Blows away the carbon budget

Interesting statement on stranded fossil fuel assets

"Demand peaks for coal and oil have the potential to take the world from stranded assets predominantly in the private sector to state-owned stranded resources and could cause significant stress to the current global economic equilibrium with unforeseen consequences on geopolitical agendas. Carefully weighed exit strategies spanning several decades need to come to the top of the political agenda, or the destruction of vast amounts of public and private shareholder value is unavoidable."

Also, concerns about the relative national power positions over time. On their global power index:

- China overtakes the US in about 2040 (i.e becomes the most powerful nation on Earth)
- India approaches the US in 2050

Will the world be able to manage the level of cooperation required as these massive changes in relative positions take place?


TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #961 on: May 08, 2017, 03:41:20 AM »
Will the world be able to manage the level of cooperation required as these massive changes in relative positions take place?
NO


Sorry, but I can't imagine any scenario in which this could possibly occur.


Sadly
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #962 on: May 08, 2017, 04:14:03 AM »
Quote
Will the world be able to manage the level of cooperation required as these massive changes in relative positions take place?

Why not?

Shifts in relative power are likely to be gradual.  Not overnight as happens when one or a small group of countries set out to conquer several other countries or the entire world.

The globe is now so commercially/industrially interconnected that large powerful companies will not want war and the disruption of their business activities.


Quote
Modern Jazz

- 25% Primary Energy Demand growth (fossil fuel share 63% in 2060)
- 28% of Final Energy Consumption is electricity (30% wind and solar by 2060)
- Coal Peaks on 2020, oil in 2030
- Carbon intensity reduced by 3.9% per annum 2014-2060
- Oil share of transport goes from 92% to 67% in 2060 (electric cars, hybrids, biofuels, less cars)


Where's the sweet sound of a flute drifting over the meadow on a warm summer evening?

The world will not see a large growth in primary energy.  We're already walking away from fossil fuels and should soon break into a run.  We now waste (in the US which should be somewhat representative) about 60% of our primary energy.  Mostly as waste heat from inefficient steam plants and internal combustion engines. 

In the US, and roughly the world, when we replace fossil fuel primary energy with renewable primary energy we need to add only 1 unit for each 2 units we close. 

Global coal has already peaked.  We peaked in 2014.

Carbon intensity is almost certain to drop by enough to get most carbon based fuel out of our lives prior to 2050.

Oil share of transportation will go below 5% before 2050.


Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #963 on: May 08, 2017, 04:32:08 AM »
Quote
Bob, the rate of growth in global installed capacity of wind and solar is forecast to fall drastically in the case of solar (from 30%+ to 5.2%)

So what?

The questions are:

1) Is the rate of installation increasing?

2) If not, is the rate already sufficient to meet the goal?

Let's say that we needed 100 GW of solar to meet all our grid needs.  If we want to get it all installed before 2040 and we're installing 10 GW per year there is zero need for rate of installation growth.  Ten years at  10 GW per year and we hit 100 GW long before 2040.

Doubling is something important only when working from a very small base.

Suppose we start out with a 1 GW per year and double to 2 GW the next year.  (100% growth rate. 3 GW installed.)

Then we double up the next year and install 4 GW.  (100% growth rate.  7 GW installed.)

Then we double up the next year and install 8 GW.  (100% growth. 15 GW installed.)

We can slow our growth rate the next year and install only 2 extra GW in order to reach 10 GW.  ( 25% growth rate. 25 GW installed)

Now we can sit steady at a growth rate = 0.  Install 10 GW per year. Seven and a half years and we're done.
--

Don't get all caught up in the doubling stuff.  Going  from 1 to 2 might be easy.  Going from 100 to 200 very hard.  Look at the current rate of installation and where we need to be.  If the US was replacing 3% of its fossil fuel use in generating electricity we'd be FF free in 20 years.  Get to 3% per year and lock down. 

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #964 on: May 08, 2017, 07:02:53 AM »
#2. No the rate of increase is not sufficient to meet the goal, if that goal is to significantly reduce carbon emissions at the global level by 2030.

- Solar currently only provides about 1.3% of global electricity production, so a slowdown in its annual growth rate to 14% from 30%+ would very much be a problem (the rate of growth is drastically slowing down when solar is still at a very low level of penetration globally).
- Wind provides about 3.8% of global electricity, with a 10% annual growth rate
- Global electricity production overall is growing at 2% a year (i.e. over 30% growth by 2030)

As IRENA states, "IRENA projects that if all existing national plans and policies are fully implemented, the renewable energy share in the total global final energy mix would rise only slightly over the next 15 years – from 18.3% in 2014 to 21% by 2030. This increase reflects strong growth in the deployment of modern renewable energy. However, it is expected to remain only marginally ahead of the combined effect of overall demand growth and the decline in traditional biomass."
i.e. the growth rate of wind and solar will not be fast enough and requires greater government policy support. Given that energy demand will be increasing, there will be an actual increase in fossil fuel usage.

http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_REthinking_Energy_2017.pdf

PS: In your example. I feel that you are conflating increases in the installed base and increases in the amount installed each year. e.g. "Now we can sit steady at a growth rate = 0.  Install 10 GW per year. Seven and a half years and we're done." Installing 10GW on a base of 10GW is 100% growth in installed base, plus its 500% of the 2GW incremental capacity that you installed the previous year.










« Last Edit: May 08, 2017, 07:41:11 AM by rboyd »

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #965 on: May 08, 2017, 07:06:22 AM »
Quote
Will the world be able to manage the level of cooperation required as these massive changes in relative positions take place?

Why not?

Shifts in relative power are likely to be gradual.  Not overnight as happens when one or a small group of countries set out to conquer several other countries or the entire world.

Why gradual?


Which modern president would have allowed China, or India to eclipse the USofA, without putting up a fight?


America has spent itself into an immense hole building a military apparatus unequaled in history. Do you really believe that these expenses were for defense?


When American politicians declare their country to be the one indispensable nation, isn't this another way of saying that all other nations are expendable?
When American politicians declare that their country is exceptional, what could this mean other than that the laws others must follow don't apply to the exception?


Unfortunately I didn't save the link, as I didn't think it important when I read it back in 2013.
At that time the US believed that the two biggest threats looking forward were:
 
The rapid growth that Russia was experiencing, in large part because of her trade with Europe.
The powerhouse that Germany was becoming, largely through exports in the automotive sector.


It appears that both of these threats are being dealt with - not in a particularly gradual manner.

Quote
The globe is now so commercially/industrially interconnected that large powerful companies will not want war and the disruption of their business activities.


Do these "large powerful companies" include the MIC, the Media?
The MIC's interest in warfare is I believe a given. That war sells papers has been acknowledged since the Spanish American war. Today war also sells air time.

Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #966 on: May 08, 2017, 08:51:39 AM »
Quote
When American politicians declare that their country is exceptional, what could this mean other than that the laws others must follow don't apply to the exception?

Every grandparent claims that their little grandchild is the smartest or prettiest in the world.


Quote
America has spent itself into an immense hole building a military apparatus unequaled in history. Do you really believe that these expenses were for defense?

If they were for offense then why haven't we conquered Canada and turned it into a vassal state?  Why is Europe not ours?  Why did we give up Japan when it was in our hands?  Where's our Empire???
 ;D




TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #967 on: May 08, 2017, 09:05:26 AM »
I have to believe you're serious, in spite of the emoticon.


I very seldom post a link because I think that they can explain a position better than I - but


http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/05/07/war-and-empire-american-way-life.html


please read the above in it's entirety. It's the intro for the Farsi translation of an American professors book.


I'll shut up
Please read the link, then get back to me
Terry

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #968 on: May 08, 2017, 09:12:12 AM »
Re: "Where's our Empire???"

There is a good thread entitled "Empire - America and the future" where some of this has been discussed.

sidd

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #969 on: May 08, 2017, 09:22:52 AM »
I started reading.  I didn't finish.

I'm not going to defend the US initiated Iraq War.  Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld are, IMO, war criminals.

Aside from that, the US has engaged in military actions in multiple countries post WWII.  Sometimes on it's own.  Sometimes at the request of other countries. 

Sometimes the actions of the US are to help.  Bosnia and Syria are conflicts which the US did not start but the US has intervened in order to stop.  We got involved in Vietnam because we thought, with some justification, that the Chinese Communists were attempting to conquer Southeast Asia as Russia was doing in Europe.

I can't think of any US military action post WW I that was undertaken to capture more territory for the US.  For that we have to go back to conflicts with Mexico and Native American tribes.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #970 on: May 08, 2017, 09:24:59 AM »
Re: "Where's our Empire???"

There is a good thread entitled "Empire - America and the future" where some of this has been discussed.

sidd

Please list the countries the US has conquered and now holds in its grasp.  Where are the US colonies like the ones held by the UK, France, Italy, Russia, Spain, and so many other countries?

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #971 on: May 08, 2017, 09:43:17 AM »
Re: "Where's our Empire???"

There is a good thread entitled "Empire - America and the future" where some of this has been discussed.

sidd

Please list the countries the US has conquered and now holds in its grasp.  Where are the US colonies like the ones held by the UK, France, Italy, Russia, Spain, and so many other countries?


Should I begin with Hawaii, or Puerto Rico?
US puppet states like Iran, under the Shah & Iraq under Saddam seem more fleeting.
Give Hawaii back, then we'll know you are serious.


As a Canadian, 54 50 or Fight still rings in my ears. Don't tread on me, or we'll burn down your White House - again.


It's a shame when Americans can't even read their own damnable history!
Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #972 on: May 08, 2017, 09:51:16 AM »
Give Hawaii back, then we'll know you are serious.

Maybe both Canada and the US should give back the Indian Nations.

&/or possessions of Pacific Native lands.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2017, 08:01:42 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #973 on: May 08, 2017, 10:04:12 AM »
Hawaii is a US state. 

Puerto Rico is a territory that has the option of becoming a state, becoming a separate country or stating as it is.  A couple of years ago Puerto Rico had, again, a vote and decided to remain a territory.

"US puppet states like Iran"

Can we have a moment of truth here?  Britain and France fucked up the Middle East long ago by creating artificial countries.  And the world has been suffering ever since.  Yes, the US has intervened from time to time and sometimes for the wrong reasons.  But let's look at who has held colonies there -

Britain
Aden Protectorate
Bahrain
History of Egypt under the British
Mandatory Iraq
Sheikhdom of Kuwait
Muscat and Oman
Mandatory Palestine
Qatar
South Arabia
Emirate of Transjordan
Trucial States

France
French Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon
Yemen (Cheik-Saïd peninsula)

Netherlands
Jemen, Al Mukha (Mocca)
Mesopotamia (Iraq, Al Basrah)

Portugal
Bandar Abbas
Hormuz
Manama
Muharraq Island
Muscat
Qeshm

Russia
Russian Armenia
Russian Azerbaijan
Georgia within the Russian Empire

Europe turned Africa into colonies.  The recent Libyan problem originated with the Italians who controlled Libya as a colony.  The intervention was led by Cameron/UK and Sarkozi/France.  The US was asked to come in as only the US had the long range bombers needed for the UN/UK/French action.

You white skinned Canadians are nothing but a bunch of Europeans who seized territory from the people who were already there.  Don't give me any of your holier than thou crap.

You're holding three territories.  Why don't you set them free?


Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #974 on: May 08, 2017, 10:13:39 AM »
Where are you from "Abrupt"?  How clean is your country's nose.

Yes, the US seized land from the people who were already living there.  And took over some fairly insignificant islands back in the 1800s.  Jarvis Island is an unpopulated 1.75 square mile island in the middle of nowhere.  Kingman Reef has a population of zero and consists of three acres of land.  Serranilla Bank is a partly submerged reef where no one lives.

We've been encouraging Guam to strike out on its own for some time, including giving them large grants to investigate self-governance.

The US has nothing like Northern Ireland or Catalonia. 


TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #975 on: May 08, 2017, 10:57:49 AM »
Bob
Only an truly exceptional country would invade Syria, against international law, then claim to be "helping". Russia was invited and turned the tide. The US crashed the party, and did no good.


Do you still believe that crying "Billy did it too" relieves you from responsibility? Were you an only child?


When you can't even read the link I provided, I have to conclude that you prefer your delusions.
Good luck with that.


I'm back to the American Empire Thread.
Terry

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #976 on: May 08, 2017, 03:45:39 PM »
Can we stay on topic please. The fundamental issue is that historically significant changes in relative power have caused serious issues. If not actual shooting wars, then other types of hostilities such as trade wars etc. That's the concern that the report was raising, given the extremely high level of cooperation that it sees required for its most optimistic scenario.

For example:

Clean Energy Could Spark a Trade War Between the US and China

https://www.wired.com/2017/03/us-china-clean-energy/
« Last Edit: May 08, 2017, 03:51:52 PM by rboyd »

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #977 on: May 08, 2017, 04:19:02 PM »
Where the new French president, Emmanuel Macron, stands on energy.

first off, these are politicians talking…so, grain of salt please…but – Macron says 1. double France’s wind and solar capacity by 2022, 2. ban all shale gas exploration, 3. no new hydrocarbon exploration permits, 4. reduce nuclear power’s share of the French energy mix from 75% today to 50%, 5. pledges to “integrate the ecological cost” into the price of carbon in France by increasing the carbon tax to €100 per tonne of CO2 in 2030. Politics in France will be tilted this direction for a while.  -Electrek

Quote
Macron pledges a steady move to renewable energy, including an aim to double France’s wind and solar capacity by 2022, compared to today’s levels. As well as promising to ban all shale gas exploration in France, Macron says he will grant “no new hydrocarbon exploration permits”, as well as closing all coal power stations in France within five years (a year earlier than the current target). He will keep France’s current target to reduce nuclear power’s share of the French energy mix from 75% today to 50% in 2025.

He also pledges to “integrate the ecological cost” into the price of carbon in France by increasing the carbon tax to €100 per tonne of CO2 in 2030 (from an earlier version of his manifesto, this appears to be a proposed national measure). He also promises to make implementation of the Paris Agreement a priority of his international agenda.

The programme also contains one particularly eye-catching proposal: a commitment to pursue trade sanctions at the European level against countries that do not respect the environmental clauses of trade agreements with the European Union.

Macron specifically mentions President Trump on this, saying “faced with the whims of the new American president, France will have to weigh in particular so that Europe ensures the United States faces its responsibilities.” Macron has previously warned that Trump would be making a “grave mistake” if he went back on his predecessor’s commitments on climate change.

Intriguingly, in a previous version of his environmental programme, Macron said the EU should impose sanctions on countries which pull out of the Paris Agreement. However, this appears to have now been softened to apply only to the environmental clauses of trade treaties.
...
https://www.carbonbrief.org/french-election-2017-where-candidates-stand-energy-climate-change
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #978 on: May 08, 2017, 06:43:56 PM »
Quote
Only an truly exceptional country would invade Syria, against international law, then claim to be "helping". Russia was invited and turned the tide. The US crashed the party, and did no good.

The US intervened in Syria because innocent civilians were being slaughtered.  To say that the US has done no good requires ignoring the sieges broken and communities rescued.

Russia was invited in by the brutal dictator who was slaughtering innocent civilians.  Russia turned the tide and has kept Assad in power.


Quote
Do you still believe that crying "Billy did it too" relieves you from responsibility?

Not at all.  But I do take offense at guilty people shouting "Guilty" at others.  None of our countries have pure records.  Canadians, in no way, should be criticising Americans for taking land from others in order to create their country.

Quote
When you can't even read the link I provided

You linked at long, boring diatribe which built its arguments on twisting facts.  After a few paragraphs it was clear that the article wasn't worth my time. 

Do remember, I have clearly stated that, at times, the US has acted wrongly and even illegally.  Trump's missile launch was an illegal act of war.  Trump violated the US Constitution.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #979 on: May 08, 2017, 08:09:41 PM »
Where are you from "Abrupt"?  How clean is your country's nose.

I am from the USA, where right now it looks like many Trump supporters are upset that the USA conquered the Confederate States of America and physically forced their ancestors to comply with the will of the Union.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #980 on: May 08, 2017, 08:25:24 PM »
Where are you from "Abrupt"?  How clean is your country's nose.

I am from the USA, where right now it looks like many Trump supporters are upset that the USA conquered the Confederate States of America and physically forced their ancestors to comply with the will of the Union.

I grew up in the Segregated South.  In the 1940s and 1950s.  The number of Southerners who are upset about losing "The War Between the States" is almost certainly lower now.  Trump just gave racist assholes permission to go out in public and talk their trash.

BTW, white racism has never been limited to the South. 

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #981 on: May 08, 2017, 09:41:59 PM »
Where are you from "Abrupt"?  How clean is your country's nose.

I am from the USA, where right now it looks like many Trump supporters are upset that the USA conquered the Confederate States of America and physically forced their ancestors to comply with the will of the Union.


Ramen!!


Bob


Growing up in the south you may not be aware of how strongly many are offended.


I tell kids (anyone under 50) of my early treks through the south before the civil rights movement and they're quite taken aback.


I don't know your age or location, but Men's, Women's and Colored facilities. Segregated dinners, schools, even truckstops, is so far from what I had ever experienced that it left a lasting impression.


My first business was a short foray into the furniture moving trade. At March Field AFB in Southern California at that time they had Officer Housing, Enlisted Housing, and Colored Housing. This was the early 1960's in a state known for it's liberal policy, and in the GD armed services!


A friend from Nevada, whose father was convicted of miscegenation, (marrying outside his race), wrote and filmed a documentary about the black stars who couldn't enter the front doors of the casino's they were playing at. Not ancient history.


It's no surprise that a Canadian made "In the Heat of the Night". American's preferred to look away.


I'm not trying to beat up on the south and I included examples from much further west.


Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #982 on: May 08, 2017, 09:48:28 PM »
Do you assume that some of us who grew up under segregation and fought against it are less offended by segregation than someone who casually encountered segregation for a few moments?

I'm a few years older than you and could fill pages of personal experiences with segregation.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #983 on: May 08, 2017, 09:59:56 PM »
Don't get all caught up in the doubling stuff.  Going  from 1 to 2 might be easy.  Going from 100 to 200 very hard.  Look at the current rate of installation and where we need to be.  If the US was replacing 3% of its fossil fuel use in generating electricity we'd be FF free in 20 years.  Get to 3% per year and lock down.

The proof is in the pudding, and while atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been a bit noisy this year (following last years Super El Nino), nevertheless I suspect that we are on track to peak above 410ppm this May (just because sustainable energy is becoming less expensive does not mean that our communal appetite for energy isn't still increasing).
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #984 on: May 08, 2017, 10:08:28 PM »
Don't get all caught up in the doubling stuff.  Going  from 1 to 2 might be easy.  Going from 100 to 200 very hard.  Look at the current rate of installation and where we need to be.  If the US was replacing 3% of its fossil fuel use in generating electricity we'd be FF free in 20 years.  Get to 3% per year and lock down.

The proof is in the pudding, and while atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been a bit noisy this year (following last years Super El Nino), nevertheless I suspect that we are on track to peak above 410ppm this May (just because sustainable energy is becoming less expensive does not mean that our communal appetite for energy isn't still increasing).

You totally changed the discussion.  My explanation of how math works has nothing to do with when we'll hit global peak CO2 emissions.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #985 on: May 08, 2017, 10:15:58 PM »
Quote
The proof is in the pudding, and while atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been a bit noisy this year (following last years Super El Nino), nevertheless I suspect that we are on track to peak above 410ppm this May (just because sustainable energy is becoming less expensive does not mean that our communal appetite for energy isn't still increasing).

I can't predict when we'll see peak global CO2.  What we do know is that Europe hit peak CO2 around 1991.  The US hit peak CO2 in 2005.  China appears to have hit peak CO2.

Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use might be peaking.  But it will take a few more years to see if that holds up.



LRC1962

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #986 on: May 09, 2017, 12:34:08 AM »
I can't predict when we'll see peak global CO2.  What we do know is that Europe hit peak CO2 around 1991.  The US hit peak CO2 in 2005.  China appears to have hit peak CO2.

Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use might be peaking.  But it will take a few more years to see if that holds up.
I am not a scientist, but those statements cause me confusion. You say EU peaked CO2 emissions in 1991. This gives the impression that the EU is no longer contributing to a rise in CO2.
In my mind I see a clean lake then someone starts pumping in dirty water. Now just because the polluter no longer is increasing the amount of polluting water, just keeps on adding the same amount of pollution at the same level, does not mean that pollution levels in the lake will then level off. The levels will increase until you reach stabilisation.
Globally we may reach a point in the near future of not increasing output of CO2, but there is no way we are even close to a point of stabilisation as far as atmospheric CO2 levels are concerned. Then you have to consider all those natural feedbacks that are only now starting to get going and that will add even more to CO2 levels. Sorry but I can not see CO2 levels flattening out any time in the the foreseeable future until we reach zero CO2 emissions and can find a way to neutralise the feedbacks. But even then it will only drop very very slowly. 
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #987 on: May 09, 2017, 01:10:36 AM »
EU28 emissions dropped at the start of the 1990's, a big part due to the rationalization and closure of many inefficient Eastern European firms and energy producers. Then they pretty much flat-lined until the global financial crash.

Since falling 4% in 2009 due to the crash, EU28 GDP has grown at a very slow rate of about 1.25% per year. Such slow growth makes it easier to cut emissions, given that it is pretty much offset by the expected annual increases in energy efficiency. Add in extra use of natural gas and some renewables and you get falling emissions.

EU28 Carbon Dioxide Emissions By Year



Same pretty much goes for the USA post-crash, with only a slightly higher rate of growth. If China can peak emissions while still growing their economy at 6%+, that will be a phenomenal achievement.

GDP Growth Rates



The other big question is then India, which is growing very fast and is at a very energy-intensive stage of development. It is already the third biggest national emitter after China and the USA, and on track to overtake the EU28 by 2020. Hopefully, with the help of other countries, they can bypass continued massive increases in fossil fuel usage.

If EU28+USA+China+India peak, then the world will have most definitely peaked. No other country has the combination of scale and rate of growth to affect the numbers that much.

« Last Edit: May 09, 2017, 01:27:16 AM by rboyd »

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #988 on: May 09, 2017, 03:46:47 AM »
“I invite you to come to France and work on climate change with researchers here. Because here, you are welcome.”

A video message from French president Emmanuel Macron:

https://twitter.com/emmanuelmacron/status/829849353867128832
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #989 on: May 09, 2017, 06:33:38 AM »
Everything I've read indicates that he's the real deal WRT climate change. His election may prove a boost for the cause that echos through the Eu, and beyond.
I'm glad that Hollande is gone and relieved that the French didn't fall for Le Pen. One Neo-Nazi / Ultra Right regime in the continent is one too many.



Terry

oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #990 on: May 09, 2017, 07:24:35 AM »
EU28 emissions dropped at the start of the 1990's, a big part due to the rationalization and closure of many inefficient Eastern European firms and energy producers. Then they pretty much flat-lined until the global financial crash.

Since falling 4% in 2009 due to the crash, EU28 GDP has grown at a very slow rate of about 1.25% per year. Such slow growth makes it easier to cut emissions, given that it is pretty much offset by the expected annual increases in energy efficiency. Add in extra use of natural gas and some renewables and you get falling emissions.

Same pretty much goes for the USA post-crash, with only a slightly higher rate of growth. If China can peak emissions while still growing their economy at 6%+, that will be a phenomenal achievement.

The other big question is then India, which is growing very fast and is at a very energy-intensive stage of development. It is already the third biggest national emitter after China and the USA, and on track to overtake the EU28 by 2020. Hopefully, with the help of other countries, they can bypass continued massive increases in fossil fuel usage.

If EU28+USA+China+India peak, then the world will have most definitely peaked. No other country has the combination of scale and rate of growth to affect the numbers that much.
It's not just a question of GDP but also of poputlation growth. The EU28's population is growing by about 0.3% per year. China is growing by 0.5%. The US by 0.75%. OTOH, India is growing by 1.25% making it much more difficult to peak.
Unfortunately, most population growth occurs outside of the developed countries.
Of the list of most populous countries, some population growth rates:
Indonesia (264M) - 1.25%
Brazil (207M) - 0.9%
Pakistan (196M) - ~2%
Nigeria (192M) - 2.7%
Africa total (1200M) - 2.5%
Hopefully, growth rates go down as living conditions improve, but peaking and actually declining total world emissions may prove to be more difficult given these demographics, as long as one assumes continued global economic development (even excluding the rich countries which are developed enough so to speak).

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #991 on: May 09, 2017, 02:58:54 PM »
Former President Obama is giving a keynote address on food security and climate change today in Milan, Italy

Obama to talk climate change as Trump mulls ditching Paris accord
Quote
Former US President Barack Obama will make a keynote address on food security and climate change Tuesday, just as the Trump administration struggles with an internal rift over whether to pull out of the global Paris climate accord.
...
Trump, who once claimed that climate change was a Chinese hoax, has since backed off those claims.

The debate between Trump's aides has turned from whether climate change is real to discussions on how the administration plans to position itself at the global negotiating table on global warming.

Trump has resolved to announce his intentions by this month's Group of 7 meeting in Sicily, meaning a decision to withdraw could isolate him at his first gathering of world leaders.

...
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/09/politics/obama-climate-change-paris-agreement-italy/index.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #992 on: May 09, 2017, 07:14:39 PM »

I can't predict when we'll see peak global CO2.  What we do know is that Europe hit peak CO2 around 1991.  The US hit peak CO2 in 2005.  China appears to have hit peak CO2.

Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use might be peaking.  But it will take a few more years to see if that holds up.




The linked article is entitled: "When It Comes to Fracking, Argentina Dreams Big". Fracking is a major source of methane leakage into the atmosphere and so we should really be talking about CO2-e concentrations (see the first attached NOAA graph through 2015 & which assumes that the GWP100 for methane is 25 when actually it has a GWP100 of 35).  Argentina is only the tip of the iceberg w.r.t. to the coming acceleration of associated methane leaked into the atmosphere (see also the second image of CH4 concentrations at Mauna Loa through May 9 2017)

http://www.ipsnews.net/2017/05/when-it-comes-to-fracking-argentina-dreams-big/

Extract: "According to the latest EIA data, Argentina has recoverable shale reserves that amount to 802 trillion cubic feet of gas and 27 billion barrels of oil. It is only second to China in shale gas reserves, and in fourth position after the US, Russia and China, in shale oil.

Of these reserves, 38 per cent of the gas and 60 per cent of the oil are concentrated in the geological formation of Vaca Muerta, where commercial exploitation began in 2013, in the Loma Campana deposit, by YPF and US company Chevron in the province of Neuquén.

The minister of Energy and Mining, Juan José Aranguren, who went to Houston with Macri, said that currently between six and eight billion dollars a year are invested in Vaca Muerta, but that the government’s goal is to reach 20 billion in 2019.

“Today in Argentina there are more than 1,500 boreholes that are being exploited by the fracking method, not just in Vaca Muerta, but also in other deposits in the area. In the next years, this number is expected to multiply,” Diego di Risio, a researcher from the Oil Observatory of the South, an organisation of professionals from different disciplines interested in the energy issue, told IPS."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #993 on: May 10, 2017, 05:42:04 PM »
I like the linked Mother Jones article entitled: "What the Hell Is Going on With Trump's Delay on the All-Important Paris Decision?"  Only time will tell what is going to happen (not a lot of happy talk).

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/05/ivanka-pruitt-paris-agreement-duel

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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #994 on: May 10, 2017, 06:48:05 PM »
Things are blowing up inside the Trump administration.  I doubt any rational person would make a strong prediction as to what decision Trump might make about the Paris agreement.

The US is undergoing some bad times.  I have little doubt we'll get through this but I do expect more damage before it's over and a significant amount of work needed to get the country back on track.  Remember, it took most of President Obama's eight years to repair most of the damage done by George W. and he wasn't able to finish.

My appeal to the rest of the world is -

Please, go on without us for awhile.  We're suffering from a temporary stretch of very poor health and won't be able to carry our share of the load.  Push hard on climate change.  And take more responsibility to help solve problems in other countries.  Hopefully we'll be back in working order in a couple of years.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #995 on: May 10, 2017, 06:53:07 PM »

eta:  I removed the chart.  I failed to notice it was a CH4 rather than CO2 chart.

In its place let me post this one of global carbon emissions through 2016.





 

There are multiple greenhouse gasses.  CO2 is the big one.  If we can stop growth of CO2 that's worth celebrating.  It means that we have the means to lowering CO2 emissions.  Start bringing down CO2 emissions at a good rate and we can put more emphasis on reducing other GHGs.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2017, 07:51:13 PM by Bob Wallace »

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #996 on: May 12, 2017, 04:32:09 PM »
The linked Eos article is entitled: "Where and How Can We Find New Sources of Oil and Gas?", & it indicates that private industry is continuing to find & develop new fossil fuel sources:

https://eos.org/editors-vox/where-and-how-can-we-find-new-sources-of-oil-and-gas?utm_source=eos&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EosBuzz051217

Extract: "According to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, world primary energy consumption grew at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent between 2010 and 2015. and reached 13,147 million tons of oil equivalent in 2015. But world oil consumption is continuing to increase while new oil discoveries decrease. Although there has been increasing adoption of renewable energy sources, gas and oil are still essential to fuel and produce a wide range of human activities and products. Thus, new technologies are necessary to find and access new reserves."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #997 on: May 12, 2017, 06:57:23 PM »
Quote
Thus, new technologies are necessary to find and access new reserves.

That would be worrisome were we likely to keep using oil in large amounts.

I'd guess that we are within five years of peak oil consumption with fairly rapid consumption drop after that.

It feels like many people in the oil industry just don't see the juggernaut bearing down on them.  Or perhaps they do and are simply in denial... 

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #998 on: May 19, 2017, 09:16:50 PM »
It's time for the world to school President Trump in how things are going to work.

EU warns Donald Trump: Paris agreement on climate change is ‘irreversible and non-negotiable’
'We, developed and developing countries together, will defend the Paris Agreement'

Quote
The Paris Agreement on global warming is “irreversible and non-negotiable”, the European Union has said in a blunt warning to climate science denier Donald Trump.

The EU and 79 developing countries in Africa, the Pacific and Caribbean issued a statement in which they reaffirmed their commitment to the landmark deal and called for others to do the same.
...
Without specifically mentioning Mr Trump, Miguel Arias Cañete, the European Commissioner for climate action and energy, said: “Today more than ever, Europe stands by its long-term partners most vulnerable to climate change.

“We, developed and developing countries together, will defend the Paris Agreement.

“We are all in, and our joint commitment to this agreement today is as in Paris: irreversible and non-negotiable.”
...
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/eu-donald-trump-paris-agreement-us-withdraw-climate-change-irreversible-non-negotiable-a7742286.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #999 on: May 19, 2017, 09:35:42 PM »


Notice how the predicted 2018 CO2 average is flattening? 

There are multiple greenhouse gasses.  CO2 is the big one.  If we can stop growth of CO2 that's worth celebrating.  It means that we have the means to lowering CO2 emissions.  Start bringing down CO2 emissions at a good rate and we can put more emphasis on reducing other GHGs.

To clarify (and I'm sure you simply misspoke), those are actual measurements. We should expect slowing during a developing La Nina (like we saw last year) and acceleration during a developing El Nino. So, with ENSO effects included, there's no indication of trend change (yet). The real question is the trend change about 10 years ago and why it started to increase again after 2006. Multiple theories on that but no consensus yet.

I'm glad you're stating that you're hedging a bit with the CO2 numbers. I am as well. I'd prefer to have a few years under the belt (and updated Asian statistics) before declaring a peak too.