Interesting report from the World Energy Council, stating three different future scenarios which were created by a series of interdisciplinary expert workshops. Very balanced and informative document about the challenges of changing the global energy system.
Still probably a bit too optimistic as doesn't account for any positive climate feedbacks, such as an ice-free Arctic and increased natural carbon emissions. Helps show the scale and complexity of the challenges ahead though.
https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/World-Energy-Scenarios-2016_Full-Report.pdfModern Jazz: market forces dominant"The outcome in 2060 is a world with a diverse set of resilient and lower-carbon energy systems.
A highly complex and competitive market landscape drives efficiency, innovation, open access to
information and rapid deployment of new technologies"
- Utility-scale Low Carbon Energy Producers, Distribution Platform Optimizers,
and Energy Solution Integrators
- 25% Primary Energy Demand growth (fossil fuel share 63% in 2060)
- 28% of Final Energy Consumption is electricity (30% wind and solar by 2060)
- Coal Peaks on 2020, oil in 2030
- Carbon intensity reduced by 3.9% per annum 2014-2060
- Oil share of transport goes from 92% to 67% in 2060 (electric cars, hybrids, biofuels, less cars)
-
Overshoots the 2 degree centigrade carbon budget, on track for 3 degrees, emissions peak in 2030Unfinished Symphony: highest level of policy intervention"By 2060, the world is “ticking on the same clock” and has shifted to a resilient, integrated, global
low-carbon energy system. There is global unified action on security, environmental and economic issues, and global institutional and national governments support enabling technologies"
- Highly integrated models and funding
mechanisms to allocate the system costs of renewables to avoid zero-marginal cost destruction
- 10% Primary Energy Demand growth (fossil fuel share 50% in 2060)
- 29% of Final Energy Consumption is electricity (39% wind and solar by 2060)
- Coal Peaks in 2020, oil in 2030
- Carbon intensity reduced by 4.7% per annum 2014-2060
- Oil share of transport goes from 92% to 60% in 2060 (electric cars, hybrids, biofuels, less cars)
-
Overshoots the 2 degree centigrade carbon budget by a little, and require negative emissions technologies from mid-century onwards. Emissions peak in 2030.Hard Rock"The outcome in 2060 is a fractured world, with a diverse set of economic, energy and sustainability
outcomes. Nationalist interests prevent countries from collaborating effectively on a global level,
with limited attention to addressing climate change. Technologies are mandated based on availability
of local resources."
- A much more fragmented approach
- 34% Primary Energy Demand growth (fossil fuel share to 70% by 2060)
- 25% of Final Energy Consumption is electricity (20% wind and solar by 2060)
- Coal Peaks in 2040, oil plateaus 2040-2050
- Oil share of transport goes from 92% to 78% in 2060 (electric cars, hybrids, biofuels, less cars)
-
Blows away the carbon budgetInteresting statement on stranded fossil fuel assets
"Demand peaks for coal and oil have the potential to take the world from stranded assets predominantly in the private sector to state-owned stranded resources and could cause significant stress to the current global economic equilibrium with unforeseen consequences on geopolitical agendas. Carefully weighed exit strategies spanning several decades need to come to the top of the political agenda, or the destruction of vast amounts of public and private shareholder value is unavoidable."
Also, concerns about the relative national power positions over time. On their global power index:
- China overtakes the US in about 2040 (i.e becomes the most powerful nation on Earth)
- India approaches the US in 2050
Will the world be able to manage the level of cooperation required as these massive changes in relative positions take place?