My general assumptions:
The G7 + rest of EU + Aus/NZ are at a much less energy intensive stage of development, which also tends to exhibit lower growth rates (1-2%/year) - so we would expect the combination of efficiency+renewables usage to be reducing/stabilizing emissions. There has been a big chunk of coal to gas switching in the G7 in the past years that may be overstating the emissions reductions when measured in CO2 only.
- G7+ plus rest of EU + Aus/NZ: falling emissions in the next 5-10 years, -3% per year maybe?
China has been through the most energy intensive stage of development, but is still growing very fast (6%/year). Could stabilize emissions, but would be quite incredible if it started to significantly reduce emissions with that rate of economic growth.
- China: slightly rising/flat/slightly falling emissions in the next 5-10 years, 0%?
India is the biggest variable (along with perhaps Indonesia), as it is in the most energy intensive stage of development with fast growth and a population size about the same as China. They are currently still set to increase emissions, even with significant investments in renewables. Their share of global emissions is increasing, so growth in their emissions will have a bigger impact going forward.
- India: rising emissions in the next 5-10 years, +2% per year would be miraculous
South America is not a big impact, especially with Brazil utilizing such large amounts of biofuels.
- South America: not much impact
I assume that Africa will remain the same, extremely poor. Given the rapidly expanding population of Africa, if that continent starts on the industrialization path there will be a huge issue in just trying to stabilize emissions.
- Africa: a real wildcard for emissions, %??
If we use the CO2e benchmark, even harder to see a global reduction in emissions as CH4 rises with natural gas usage and CH4 and N2O rise with increased agriculture.
So, at the global level maybe a 1-2% per year reduction in emissions in the next 5-10 years - I think that that is easily the best case optimistic scenario. In 2017 emissions look like they will be going up. In 10 years we will be 25ppm+ higher CO2 and 35ppm+ higher CO2e, if the natural sources and sinks stay the same (a big assumption).