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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1300 on: November 13, 2017, 10:53:37 AM »
Anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are projected to increase in 2017 primarily due to increased coal use in China:

Title: "First CO2 rise in four years puts pressure on Paris targets"

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41941265

Extract: "Global emissions of CO2 in 2017 are projected to rise for the first time in four years, dashing hopes that a peak might soon be reached.

The main cause of the expected growth has been greater use of coal in China as its economy expanded.

Researchers are uncertain if the rise in emissions is a one-off or the start of a new period of CO2 build-up."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1301 on: November 13, 2017, 04:35:13 PM »
If we don't know what the rules are and we don't know how to monitor compliance, then how do we know who is cheating on GHG emissions?

Title: "COP23: Writing the Paris accord rule book"

http://www.dw.com/en/cop23-writing-the-paris-accord-rule-book/a-41200149

Extract: "Two years after the world committed to climate action in Paris, negotiators are still trying to figure out the nuts and bolts of the global deal to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius.

A big part of that is developing a plan to monitor and verify the pledges made by nearly 200 countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. During the two-week long COP23 talks in Bonn, negotiators are focusing, in part, on developing a system to make those measurements.

Writing that rule book is no easy task, says University of Edinburgh climate scientist Paul Palmer, part of an international team that assesses heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere.

"We need to measure carefully. We'll be looking for small, gradual reductions of large numbers, so we need to make sure we get the numbers right," Palmer told DW."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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pileus

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1302 on: November 13, 2017, 04:38:27 PM »
Anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are projected to increase in 2017 primarily due to increased coal use in China:

Title: "First CO2 rise in four years puts pressure on Paris targets"

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41941265

Extract: "Global emissions of CO2 in 2017 are projected to rise for the first time in four years, dashing hopes that a peak might soon be reached.

The main cause of the expected growth has been greater use of coal in China as its economy expanded.

Researchers are uncertain if the rise in emissions is a one-off or the start of a new period of CO2 build-up."

Looks like the expectation is for an increase in 2018 on top of 2017.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/11/13/fossil-fuel-emissions-projected-to-reach-an-all-time-high-in-2017-dashing-hopes-of-progress/

The emissions from fossil fuel burning and industrial uses are projected to rise by up to 2 percent in 2017, as well as to rise again in 2018, the scientists told a group of international officials gathered for a United Nations climate conference in Bonn, Germany.

Despite global economic growth, total emissions held level from 2014 to 2016 at about 36 billion tons per year, stoking hope among many climate change advocates that emissions had reached an all-time high point and would subsequently begin to decline. But that was not to be, the new analysis suggests.

“The temporary hiatus appears to have ended in 2017,” wrote Stanford University’s Rob Jackson, who along with colleagues at the Global Carbon Project tracked 2017 emissions to date and projected them forward. “Economic projections suggest further emissions growth in 2018 is likely.”

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1303 on: November 13, 2017, 09:11:32 PM »
Bonn:

Quote
At U.S. "clean fossil fuels" event nearly entire room began protesting & got thrown out.

Here's inside vs. outside now. #COP23  #WeThePeople
https://twitter.com/collinrees/status/930136107521585152

Two photos at link.  :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1304 on: November 13, 2017, 09:25:18 PM »
Fossil fuel emissions hit record high after unexpected growth: Global Carbon Budget 2017
Quote
...
Yet despite this year’s uptick, economies are now decarbonising with a momentum that was difficult to imagine just a decade ago. There are now 22 countries, for example, for which CO₂ emissions have declined over the past decade while their economies have continued to grow.

Concerns have been raised in the past about countries simply moving their emissions outside their borders. But since 2007, the total emissions outsourced by countries with emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol (that is, developed countries, including the US) has declined.

This suggests that the downward trends in emissions of the past decade are driven by real changes to economies and energy systems, and not just to offshoring emissions.
...
https://theconversation.com/fossil-fuel-emissions-hit-record-high-after-unexpected-growth-global-carbon-budget-2017-87248
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ivica

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1305 on: November 13, 2017, 11:12:49 PM »
“Warning to Humanity”

Quote
More than 15,000 scientists from 184 countries have issued a warning: Mankind must take immediate action to reverse the effects of climate change, deforestation and species extinction before it’s too late.

A preprint of the paper/warning here, Alliance of World Scientists here.

Note about "Warning" also posted by ASLR at Conservative Scientists & its Consequences.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2017, 11:25:05 PM by ivica »

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1306 on: November 14, 2017, 03:17:47 PM »
'Tobacco at a cancer summit': Trump coal push savaged at climate conference
The US administration’s attempt to portray fossil fuels as vital to reducing poverty and saving US jobs is ridiculed in Bonn
Quote
The Trump team was heckled and interrupted by a protest song at the UN’s climate change summit in Bonn on Monday after using its only official appearance to say fossil fuels were vital to reducing poverty around the world and to saving jobs in the US.

While Donald Trump’s special adviser on energy and environment, David Banks, said cutting emissions was a US priority, “energy security, economic prosperity are higher priorities”, he said. “The president has a responsibility to protect jobs and industry across the country.”

Other attendees at the summit condemned the argument.

“Promoting coal at a climate summit is like promoting tobacco at a cancer summit,” said Michael Bloomberg, the former New York mayor and a UN special envoy for cities and climate change.

Benson Kibiti, from the Kenya Climate Working Group, said: “More coal will entrench poverty.” ...
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/13/bonn-climate-summit-trump-fossil-fuels-protest
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1307 on: November 14, 2017, 03:44:59 PM »
'Tobacco at a cancer summit': Trump coal push savaged at climate conference
The US administration’s attempt to portray fossil fuels as vital to reducing poverty and saving US jobs is ridiculed in Bonn
Quote
The Trump team was heckled and interrupted by a protest song at the UN’s climate change summit in Bonn on Monday after using its only official appearance to say fossil fuels were vital to reducing poverty around the world and to saving jobs in the US.

While Donald Trump’s special adviser on energy and environment, David Banks, said cutting emissions was a US priority, “energy security, economic prosperity are higher priorities”, he said. “The president has a responsibility to protect jobs and industry across the country.”

Other attendees at the summit condemned the argument.

“Promoting coal at a climate summit is like promoting tobacco at a cancer summit,” said Michael Bloomberg, the former New York mayor and a UN special envoy for cities and climate change.

Benson Kibiti, from the Kenya Climate Working Group, said: “More coal will entrench poverty.” ...
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/13/bonn-climate-summit-trump-fossil-fuels-protest

BUT where is the official transcript of the US submission / statement to COP23 ? I can't find it.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1308 on: November 14, 2017, 05:24:09 PM »
While China is busy filling the leadership vacuum created by the Trump Administration at COP 23, we should all be aware that China is currently planning on partially meeting its economic growth plans and its Paris Pledges by outsourcing its dirty industries to surrounding nations via the "One Belt One Road Initiative".

In this regards, I provide the following linked information about 'Make China Great Again' (see the first attached image).

Title: "What Xi Jinping Wants"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/05/what-china-wants/528561/

Extract: "China’s leader is determined to turn his country into “the biggest player in the history of the world.” Can he do it while avoiding a dangerous collision with America?

Xi is so convinced he will succeed in this quest that he has blatantly flouted a cardinal rule for political survival: Never state a target objective and a specific date in the same sentence. Within a month of becoming China’s leader in 2012, Xi specified deadlines for meeting each of his “Two Centennial Goals.” First, China will build a “moderately prosperous society” by doubling its 2010 per capita GDP to $10,000 by 2021, when it celebrates the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party. Second, it will become a “fully developed, rich, and powerful” nation by the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic in 2049. If China reaches the first goal— which it is on course to do—the IMF estimates that its economy will be 40 percent larger than that of the U.S. (measured in terms of purchasing power parity). If China meets the second target by 2049, its economy will be triple America's."

&

Title: "Why China aims to be number one superpower by 2049

http://www.oxfordtoday.ox.ac.uk/features/why-china-aims-be-number-one-superpower-2049

Extract: "The seeds of world ambition are historical but it would be reckless to dismiss them, says Oxford analyst Tom Miller."

&

See also the linked Wikipedia articles entitled "Two Centenaries" & " Chinese Dream":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_Centenaries
&
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Dream

See also the second attached image, and the following linked Wikipedia article on China's One Belt One Road Initiative:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Belt_One_Road_Initiative
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1309 on: November 14, 2017, 09:13:42 PM »
Quote
Today, Nov 14:
15,364 scientists from 184 countries—the most scientists that have ever jointly published anything, in history—declared "time is running out.”


"We must recognize, in our day-to-day lives...that Earth with all its life is our only home."

http://scientists.forestry.oregonstate.edu/sites/sw/files/Ripple_et_al_warning_2017.pdf
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/930493729739366401

From the paper:
Quote
... Moreover, we have unleashed a mass extinction event, the sixth in roughly 540 million years, wherein many current life forms could be annihilated or at least committed to extinction by the end of this century.

Humanity is now being given a second notice, as illustrated by these alarming trends.... We are jeopardizing our future by not reining in our intense but geographically and demographically uneven material consumption and by not perceiving continued rapid population growth as a primary driver behind many ecological and even societal threats (Crist et al. 2017). By failing to adequately limit population growth, reassess the role of an economy rooted in growth, reduce greenhouse gases, incentivize renewable energy, protect habitat, restore ecosystems, curb pollution, halt defaunation, and constrain invasive alien species, humanity is not taking the urgent steps needed to safeguard our imperilled biosphere.
...
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Pmt111500

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1310 on: November 15, 2017, 07:05:34 AM »
I hear Trumpistani salesmen visited IPCC-negotiations. To get on the lighter side of things *insert joke about rapists mocking the victims*
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1311 on: November 16, 2017, 01:55:28 PM »
"transportation for the Paris delegates emitted 300,000 tons of CO2."

Seriously, why isn't teleconferencing more of a thing?  Are people afraid they won't be able to speak out of turn?  ;) 
There could even be virtual "hallways" between sessions so attendees could connect with others, either individually or in small groups.

Some related movement, or at least discussion:

Quote
.@EricHolthaus asked what we're doing about emissions. I'm calling on scientists to not fly to @theAGU #AGU2017 fall meeting and instead take the train with me. More at the @UCSUSA blog: http://blog.ucsusa.org/science-blogger/one-simple-trick-to-reduce-your-carbon-footprint … #TrainToAGU
https://twitter.com/AnnaUnderTheSun/status/930873702215974913
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1312 on: November 16, 2017, 05:25:27 PM »
Here are a couple of examples of nations weaseling on their Paris Pledges:

Title: "Brazil's oil sale plans prompt fears of global fossil fuel extraction race"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/15/brazils-oil-sale-plans-undermine-its-role-at-bonn

Extract: "Government proposal to give tax relief for offshore oil would increase emissions and contradicts the nation’s progressive stance in Bonn

Climate Observatory, WWF, Greenpeace and other groups say the subsidies could spark a get-it-out-of-the-ground race with fossil fuel rivals such as the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway and the UK."

&

Title: "At Stake in Arctic Refuge Drilling Vote: Money, Wilderness and a Way of Life"

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15112017/anwr-arctic-national-wildlife-refuge-oil-drilling-alaska-murkowski

Extract: "A Senate committee voted Wednesday to advance a plan that would allow oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, one of the country's last untouched wilderness areas. While the drive to open the refuge is being spearheaded by Alaska's senior senator, it's getting a mixed reaction from Alaskans who live there and rely on the land."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1313 on: November 18, 2017, 06:41:18 PM »
In the first linked article, the 'two rays of light' from COP23 were commitments to gender equality and for equal footing for indigenous people; while little progress was made for establishing  guidelines/criteria for monitoring and recording accurate GHG emission numbers.  While I fully support social justice, I believe that it would even be better for COP 23 to find a way to hold participants of the Paris Agreement to meet/exceed their pledges (e.g. the second linked article indicates that Germany most likely will not meet its pledge):

Title: "Closing the climate talks, two 'rays of light'"

http://www.ehn.org/closing-the-climate-talks-two-silver-linings-2510367870.html

Extract: "… little progress was made defining specific emissions-cutting guidelines. Activists call for a "robust set of rules," but that rulebook remains woefully thin."

&

Title: "COP23: Is Germany losing its role model status on climate?"

http://www.dw.com/en/cop23-is-germany-losing-its-role-model-status-on-climate/a-41431186
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Martin Gisser

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1314 on: November 18, 2017, 08:26:36 PM »
Title: "COP23: Is Germany losing its role model status on climate?"

http://www.dw.com/en/cop23-is-germany-losing-its-role-model-status-on-climate/a-41431186
Here's why that "role model" is depressingly ridiculous.
Guess where Europe's largest open pit coal mine is located. Not far from COP23. Guess what's dug up there. Brown "coal" (actually something more like peat than black coal) is the most ridiculously dirty and unefficient form of coal, short of burning shit. Guess what they sacrifice for that. The Hambach Forest, a 12000y old growth forest. Only 10% remains.

German brown coal mining has actually increased from 167.7 megatons in 2000 to 178.1 in 2015, by far the largest amount of any nation. Only China (140Mt 2015) is also above 100.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lignite

The amazing Amy Goodman of https://www.democracynow.org/ reports from COP23, plus, the mud in Hambach Forest. E.g.:
https://www.democracynow.org/2017/11/17/keep_it_in_the_ground_as
https://www.democracynow.org/2017/11/15/special_report_from_the_occupied_forest
« Last Edit: November 18, 2017, 08:53:35 PM by Martin Gisser »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1315 on: November 19, 2017, 03:39:30 AM »
China and India climate change actions more than offset US Paris Agreement retreat
Quote
...three independent European research groups have released a new report that states emissions policies and actions at a national level, heavily influenced by China and India, have visibly reduced end of century temperature estimates. The newest projections suggest the world is headed for a warming of 3.4°C (6.1° F) by 2100, down from 3.6°C (6.5°F) predicted a year ago, as per the The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) report.

Concurrently, by dropping out of the Paris Agreement, the USA has lowered the overall effect that the Paris Agreement could have had by about .32°C. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/11/17/china-and-india-climate-change-actions-more-than-offset-us-paris-agreement-retreat/
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Red

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1316 on: November 19, 2017, 02:10:30 PM »
The Paris Agreement assumed that future climate efforts would increase; however, if the attendance at COP 23 is any measure of global effort; then we should be concerned that attendance at COP 23 in Bonn is about half that of at COP21 in Paris:

Title: "Analysis: Which countries have sent the most delegates to COP23?"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-sent-most-delegates-cop23

Extract: " According to the UNFCCC’s provisional list, there are some 11,300 participants at COP23 on behalf of a particular country, or “party”. That’s down from around 15,000 at COP21 in Paris in 2015.

In addition, there are a further 6,176 attendees representing UN bodies, specialised agencies, and intergovernmental and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), plus 1,633 journalists covering the talks. This puts the total number of delegates at just over 19,000 – approximately half the number that went to COP21."
Perhaps they feel that they have control better of the situation now.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1317 on: November 24, 2017, 04:08:58 PM »
Trump didn't blow up the climate summit. What did happen in Bonn?
Quote
Here's the roundup from the only Canadian media outlet on the scene at this year's international climate change negotiations in Bonn, Germany.

• Donald Trump didn't blow it up
• Canada triggered a revolt against coal
• The Montreal Protocol may save us 0.5 degrees
• Financing for developing countries is in limbo
• There was bare minimum progress towards a "rulebook" to implement the Paris agreement
• Canada aligns with America's 'We are still in' delegation

...
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/11/22/analysis/trump-didnt-blow-climate-summit-what-did-happen-bonn
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1318 on: November 28, 2017, 05:16:26 PM »
What’s the net cost of using renewables to hit Australia’s climate target? Nothing
Quote
Australia can meet its 2030 greenhouse emissions target at zero net cost, according to our analysis of a range of options for the National Electricity Market.

Our modelling shows that renewable energy can help hit Australia’s emissions reduction target of 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030 effectively for free. This is because the cost of electricity from new-build wind and solar will be cheaper than replacing old fossil fuel generators with new ones.

Currently, Australia is installing about 3 gigawatts (GW) per year of wind and solar photovoltaics (PV). This is fast enough to exceed 50% renewables in the electricity grid by 2030. It’s also fast enough to meet Australia’s entire carbon reduction target, as agreed at the 2015 Paris climate summit.

Encouragingly, the rapidly declining cost of wind and solar PV electricity means that the net cost of meeting the Paris target is roughly zero. This is because electricity from new-build wind and PV will be cheaper than from new-build coal generators; cheaper than existing gas generators; and indeed cheaper than the average wholesale price in the entire National Electricity Market, which is currently A$70-100 per megawatt-hour. ...
https://theconversation.com/whats-the-net-cost-of-using-renewables-to-hit-australias-climate-target-nothing-88021
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1319 on: November 28, 2017, 07:16:13 PM »
Quote
This is because the cost of electricity from new-build wind and solar will be cheaper than replacing old fossil fuel generators with new ones.

The most frequently overlooked reason why we're going to see a lot of wind and solar installed over the next 20 to 30 years.

This is a five year old graph showing the age of generating plants in the US.  Add five years to their ages. 



The average lifespan of a coal or nuclear plant in the US is about 40 years.  A huge amount of US generating capacity is going to be replaced one way or another.


AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1320 on: November 28, 2017, 08:57:35 PM »
Trump didn't blow up the climate summit. What did happen in Bonn?
Quote
Here's the roundup from the only Canadian media outlet on the scene at this year's international climate change negotiations in Bonn, Germany.

• Donald Trump didn't blow it up
• Canada triggered a revolt against coal
• The Montreal Protocol may save us 0.5 degrees
• Financing for developing countries is in limbo
• There was bare minimum progress towards a "rulebook" to implement the Paris agreement
• Canada aligns with America's 'We are still in' delegation

...
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/11/22/analysis/trump-didnt-blow-climate-summit-what-did-happen-bonn
1.  Saying that Trump didn't blow up the Paris Agreement is like counting your chickens before they have hatched.
2.  Saying that Canada mounted a revolt against coal is like complementing them for shooting fish in a bowl, while the Canadians promotes both tar sand, and shale gas, development.
3. The Montreal Protocol gains have already been counted in the RCP scenarios, so pointing to these gains again seems a little like double counting.
4.  Having the finance for developing countries being in limbo indicates that Trump is already hurting the climate fight.
5.  Making little progress on the 'rulebook' hints that other countries have Trump envy and want to cheat when/where possible.
6.  Having Canada align with America's 'We are still in" delegation; hints how much they want to get the Keystone XL pipeline approved.
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1321 on: November 29, 2017, 10:27:58 PM »
Trump didn't blow up the climate summit. What did happen in Bonn?
Quote
Here's the roundup from the only Canadian media outlet on the scene at this year's international climate change negotiations in Bonn, Germany.

• Donald Trump didn't blow it up
• Canada triggered a revolt against coal
• The Montreal Protocol may save us 0.5 degrees
• Financing for developing countries is in limbo
• There was bare minimum progress towards a "rulebook" to implement the Paris agreement
• Canada aligns with America's 'We are still in' delegation

...
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/11/22/analysis/trump-didnt-blow-climate-summit-what-did-happen-bonn
1.  Saying that Trump didn't blow up the Paris Agreement is like counting your chickens before they have hatched.
2.  Saying that Canada mounted a revolt against coal is like complementing them for shooting fish in a bowl, while the Canadians promotes both tar sand, and shale gas, development.
3. The Montreal Protocol gains have already been counted in the RCP scenarios, so pointing to these gains again seems a little like double counting.
4.  Having the finance for developing countries being in limbo indicates that Trump is already hurting the climate fight.
5.  Making little progress on the 'rulebook' hints that other countries have Trump envy and want to cheat when/where possible.
6.  Having Canada align with America's 'We are still in" delegation; hints how much they want to get the Keystone XL pipeline approved.
As a Canadian, I'm totally in agreement with what you've written. Canada does not need to be the exporter of arguably the dirtiest energy on the planet.
Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1322 on: December 11, 2017, 05:36:43 PM »
The linked article indicates that prior assumptions likely underestimated the true carbon emissions associated with future construction, and I note that the article: (a) ignores the extra construction required to build sustainable energy sources and (b) ignores the likelihood that ECS maybe higher than assumed by AR5.  These considerations will make it very difficult to meet the Paris Accord commitments:

Title: "We're building the equivalent of Paris every week. That's a problem."

http://www.dailyclimate.org/big-spring-vs-big-oil-2516590106.html

Extract: "A new United Nations report from the Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction released today finds that in order to keep the Paris Climate Agreement goals on track, the construction industry needs to improve energy efficiency per square meter (about 10 square feet) by 30 percent by 2030.

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. If the agreement falls apart, at current emission levels the planet would warm roughly 4.2 degrees Celsius by the year 2100."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1323 on: December 14, 2017, 12:13:53 AM »
World Bank to end financial support for oil and gas exploration
Bank announces in Paris it ‘will no longer finance upstream oil and gas’ after 2019 in response to threat posed by climate change
Quote
The World Bank will end its financial support for oil and gas exploration within the next two years in response to the growing threat posed by climate change.

In a statement that delighted campaigners opposed to fossil fuels, the Bank used a conference in Paris to announce that it “will no longer finance upstream oil and gas” after 2019.

The Bank ceased lending for coal-fired power stations in 2010 but has been under pressure from lobby groups also to halt the $1bn (£750m) a year it has been lending for oil and gas in developing countries.

The Bank said it saw the need to change the way it was operating in a “rapidly changing world”, adding that it was on course to have 28% of its lending going to climate action by 2020. At present, 1-2% of the Bank’s $280bn portfolio is accounted for by oil and gas projects.

In exceptional circumstances, the Bank said it would consider lending for oil and gas projects in the very poorest countries but only where it helped the poor get access to energy and the project did not conflict with commitments to reduce greenhouse gases made in the 2015 Paris climate change accord.
...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/12/uk-banks-join-multinationals-pledge-come-clean-climate-change-risks-mark-carney
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1324 on: December 14, 2017, 11:01:44 PM »
The linked reference raises concerns that we may not reach all of the Montreal Protocol goals for ozone recovery. 

If we can't even meet the Montreal Protocol goals, how will those for the Paris Accord?:

Qing Liang, Susan E. Strahan, Eric L. Fleming. Concerns for ozone recovery. Science, 2017; 358 (6368): 1257 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaq0145

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6368/1257

Summary: "Reactive halogen gases containing chlorine (Cl) or bromine (Br) can destroy stratospheric ozone via catalytic cycles. The main sources of atmospheric reactive halogen are the long-lived synthetic chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3), and bromine-containing halons, all of which persist in the atmosphere for years. These ozone-depleting substances are now controlled under the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. Natural methyl bromide (CH3Br) and methyl chloride (CH3Cl) emissions are also important long-lived sources of atmospheric reactive halogen. Rising concentrations of very-short-lived substances (VSLSs) with atmospheric lifetimes of less than half a year may also contribute to future stratospheric ozone depletion. A greater concern for ozone layer recovery is incomplete compliance with the Montreal Protocol, which will impact stratospheric ozone for many decades, as well as rising natural emissions as a result of climate change."

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sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1325 on: December 19, 2017, 09:43:25 PM »
Give the poor countries money for climate action, and  suck it right back out. Goldman Sachs would be proud.

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/11/02/poor-countries-wasting-climate-cash-consultants-says-african-official/

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1326 on: December 27, 2017, 09:28:47 PM »
The following video in the link below is from September but I couldn't find any posts with it, so here it comes;
The Gordon Goodman Memorial Lecture 2017.
Quote
Mitigation on Methadone: the trouble with negative emissions
With sixteen of the seventeen warmest years on record having occurred since 2000; with oceans both warming and acidifying; and with unequivocal scientific evidence that burning fossil fuels is the principal cause; – what can we do to rapidly reduce emissions?

This presentation will revisit the scale of the climate challenge, arguing that whilst the science of climate change has progressed, we obstinately refuse to acknowledge the rate at which our emissions from energy need to be reduced. The Paris Agreement exemplifies this duality – relying as it does on highly speculative negative emission technologies to balance incremental tweaks to a ‘business-as-usual’ model with rapidly dwindling carbon budgets for 2°C. Similarly, the eloquent rhetoric of green growth continues to eclipse analysis demonstrating the need for radical social as well as technical change.

Taking these issues head on, this seminar will outline a quantitative framing of mitigation, based on IPCC carbon budgets, before finishing with more qualitative examples of what a genuine low-carbon future may contain.
Kevin Anderson starts at ~20m.
http://www.kva.se/sv/kalendarium/the-gordon-goodman-memorial-lecture-2017

Also adding a screenshot with what Sweden should accomplish.
We will not do that, dispite having 40% nuclear, 40% hydro and 10% wind, so what about the rest of the western world.  ???
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1327 on: December 27, 2017, 10:15:31 PM »
The following video in the link below is from September but I couldn't find any posts with it, so here it comes;
The Gordon Goodman Memorial Lecture 2017.
Quote
Mitigation on Methadone: the trouble with negative emissions

Mitigating Methadone is a Mistake. 8)
Terry

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1328 on: December 28, 2017, 01:04:34 AM »
Can the U.S. earn brownie points by using private enterprises to help other countries reduce their emissions and improve their standard of living, while we slowly get our own butt in gear?  Once we engage in this seriously, country-wide (say, 2021 ;)), I think the change will happen here very quickly.  And I think it’s becoming less of a global argument that “Well, the U.S. isn’t doing anything, so why should we?” and more like, “That’s the new technology we want — never mind that the U.S. is stuck in the past!”
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1329 on: December 28, 2017, 01:49:38 AM »
I think that by now most countries realize that the US is very sick and cannot come out to play. 

Other countries are going to have to pick up the slack. 

And the US may never return to being the leader it once was.  We will likely survive but there's a good chance we will be diminished for many years into the future.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1330 on: December 29, 2017, 08:31:21 AM »
The following video in the link below is from September but I couldn't find any posts with it, so here it comes;
The Gordon Goodman Memorial Lecture 2017.
Quote
Mitigation on Methadone: the trouble with negative emissions

Mitigating Methadone is a Mistake. 8)
Terry
Yep!  :)
(Still haven't got used to the sparser email notifications from here.)

And this is what all westerners should be aiming for to stand a chance at the Paris goals, a fossil free lifestyle in 2025:
http://www.fossilfri.com/
Björn Ferry and Heidi Andersson does have a car that will make some people happy:
http://heidiandersson.com/2017/12/18/julmys-och-julfys/
But that's about it, I guess.

Sorry about the language in those links. The radio show mentioned was very inspiring, but also in Swedish...
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1331 on: December 29, 2017, 04:53:59 PM »
10 more cities sign on to Chicago climate pact
Quote
Ten more cities have signed on to the Chicago Climate Charter, a now 67-city pact to fight climate change in the face of President Trump's decision to pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement.

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D) announced the new signatories, which include Louisville, Ky.; San Jose, Calif.; Saint Paul, Minn.; and Boulder, Colo.

“While the Trump administration continues to bury their heads deeper in the sand when it comes to climate change, local leaders are confronting the challenge head-on,” Emanuel said in a release.

The Chicago Climate Charter, which requires participating cities to adhere to many of the climate guidelines set by the Paris agreement, was first signed at the North American Climate Summit earlier this month. ...
http://thehill.com/news-by-subject/energy-environment/366574-10-more-cities-sign-onto-chicago-climate-pact
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Iceismylife

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1332 on: December 29, 2017, 08:47:30 PM »
The ESAS is getting ready to release enough methane to do something like 1,000 times as much global warming as the carbon we have release is doing. The heat source driving this release is coming from the bottom up not the top down.  This means that carbon emissions reduction is pointless.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1333 on: December 29, 2017, 09:33:18 PM »
California Wants to Change the Way We Build
Quote
Constructing a new building or bridge doesn’t start on location. It begins where companies manufacture the steel, iron, glass, insulation, aluminum and concrete that go into it. Then these materials have to travel. These phases of construction — the manufacturing and transportation — often produce carbon emissions that heavily contribute to climate change.

California, a leader in climate action, has set out to change this. State legislators recently passed (and Gov. Jerry Brown signed, despite cost concerns) a bipartisan measure that, as of 2019, will require all contractors who bid on state infrastructure projects to disclose the amount of greenhouse gases that result from their manufacturing processes. The goal is to award contracts only to sources who keep their carbon pollution low, and have made curbing it a company policy from start to finish.

“California is the first major economy to say ‘we own what we buy. If we buy polluting, we own the pollution. If we buy clean, we own the clean.’ That’s a huge breakthrough,” said Carl Pope, advisor to Bloomberg Philanthropies and former director of the Sierra Club. “About a fifth of the world’s climate pollution is emitted making stuff — cars, clothes, salads, jet fuel, condos, iPads. To date, we pretend when we count that none of that exists. Our books are, as a result, badly askew. ‘Buy Clean’ puts California at the head of the ‘count it all’ club. And counting it all is the key to competing, so this is a major economic boost for the Golden state.” ...
https://nexusmedianews.com/buy-clean-wants-to-change-the-way-we-build-dd8f48f7e839
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Alexander555

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1334 on: December 29, 2017, 09:51:25 PM »
The ESAS is getting ready to release enough methane to do something like 1,000 times as much global warming as the carbon we have release is doing. The heat source driving this release is coming from the bottom up not the top down.  This means that carbon emissions reduction is pointless.

https://eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-08/tpu-rsd081517.php

oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1335 on: January 01, 2018, 12:25:12 AM »
The ESAS is getting ready to release enough methane to do something like 1,000 times as much global warming as the carbon we have release is doing. The heat source driving this release is coming from the bottom up not the top down.  This means that carbon emissions reduction is pointless.
As far as I understand, not so. Surely the process speed depends in part on sea ice cover and water temps above the ESAS.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1336 on: January 06, 2018, 06:22:43 PM »
The Paris Agreement does nothing about non-fossil fuel emissions.  The linked video provides some facts to think about the impacts of agriculture.  We should clearly tax meat, dairy and eggs, in addition to taxing fossil fuels:

Title: "Cowspiracy: The Sustainability Secret"


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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1337 on: January 06, 2018, 08:00:29 PM »
People are addicted to the way they eat, and it will take will power to change this dynamic:

Title: "ANALYSIS-Can agriculture and the climate fix their 'unhappy marriage' in 2018?"

http://news.trust.org/item/20171228080738-fua9t/

Extract: "Agriculture, forestry and other land uses together account for nearly a quarter of the greenhouse gas emissions heating up the planet
...
Later on, poor states feared discussing the linkage would result in obligations for them to curb emissions from farming. Rich nations worried they would have to pay for poor farmers to adapt to a changing climate.

At November's climate talks in Bonn, the stalemate was finally broken, with nations agreeing to move forward on issues related to agriculture and climate change.

"There is now clearly the political will to see this resolved," said Margarita Astralaga, director of environment and climate at the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)."
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1338 on: January 06, 2018, 10:54:57 PM »
Norway awards new Arctic oil licences days after drilling pledge.
US and Nordic states agree new measures to regulate Arctic oil and gas drilling, but little sign exploitation will slow.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/05/16/norway-awards-new-arctic-oil-licences-days-after-drilling-pledge/

Norway is Western Europe's largest producer and exporter of oil and gas and plans to keep pumping for decades despite its support for the 2015 Paris climate accord, which aims to end the fossil fuel era this century.

http://www.euronews.com/2018/01/05/norway-s-decision-on-arctic-oil-drilling-blow-to-environmental-groups



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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1339 on: January 06, 2018, 11:58:40 PM »
With the spindly masts and elevated poop deck my first thought was a pirate vessel of old. :)
Terry

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1340 on: January 07, 2018, 06:56:31 AM »
Mornin', Terry. It is a pirate vessel.  ;)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1341 on: January 07, 2018, 04:23:42 PM »
It looks like carbon taxes could politically be applied to meat and dairy in about 10 to 20 years; however, we my pass several tipping points by the time they take effect:

Title: "Meat tax ‘inevitable’ to beat climate and health crises, says report"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/11/meat-tax-inevitable-to-beat-climate-and-health-crises-says-report

Extract: "“Sin taxes” on meat to reduce its huge impact on climate change and human health look inevitable, according to analysts for investors managing more than $4tn of assets.

Meat taxes are often seen as politically impossible but research by Chatham House in 2015 found they are far less unpalatable to consumers than governments think. It showed people expect governments to lead action on issues that are for the global good, but that awareness of the damage caused by the livestock industry is low. Using meat tax revenues to subsidise healthy foods is one idea touted to reduce opposition.

“It’s only a matter of time before agriculture becomes the focus of serious climate policy,” said Rob Bailey at Chatham House. “The public health case will likely strengthen government resolve, as we have seen with coal and diesel. It’s hard to imagine concerted action to tax meat today, but over the course of the next 10 to 20 years, I would expect to see meat taxes accumulate.”"
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1342 on: January 08, 2018, 12:14:33 PM »
Moo.

I drove a relative (to my wife) home last night. She's close to 90 years old. We started talking about climate change and as the talk progressed, we got into cows...
-Why can't they leave the cows out of it? They are good and of no harm to anyone.
Suddenly I was lost for words.

Her parents were old school farmers, a tiny farm with just a couple of cows. She still has that farm because she can't part from it, it's falling apart while she lives in a house in Gothenburg.

Ah well, this will probably not interest anyone but I'm still lost for words and had so many thoughts after that, it just left me puzzled and a bit sad. But it was an amazing perspective from one woman, who grew up with a low carbon liftestyle, in one of the wealthier nations on this planet.

All of this has happened so fast, that it fits into one persons life.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1343 on: January 08, 2018, 02:29:10 PM »
Implementing the UN climate agreement requires significant reductions in CO2 emissions very soon - like now.

Here is an overview from Bloomberg on global energy trends 2018 - though mostly about the USA -fossil fuels up, and partly about other places - fossil fuels down?

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-01-08/5-things-to-watch-on-global-energy-front-in-2018

Quote
U.S. energy companies keep raising money: U.S. oil and gas exploration and production companies, pipeline operators and liquefied natural gas firms have a knack for raising new money in the capital markets. For most of the past decade, that money has split fairly evenly between equity and high-yield bonds, with a few exceptions. But in 2016, energy companies raised money in equity almost entirely and then, in 2017, turned to debt. Last year, in a record 12 months for new capital, they raised 80 percent of their money -- more than $50 billion -- through debt.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1344 on: January 08, 2018, 06:36:47 PM »
Implementing the UN climate agreement requires significant reductions in CO2 emissions very soon - like now.

Here is an overview from Bloomberg on global energy trends 2018 - though mostly about the USA -fossil fuels up, and partly about other places - fossil fuels down?
More like yesterday. Everything is bigger in the US, I wonder if they ever get started?

Here's a nation that already had their peak oil, in the 70's... And hopefully, peak fuel now. Numbers from SPBI, Swedish Petroleum and Biofuels Institute.

Maybe this should go into the Oil and Gas Issues thread instead, but it also fits that little story about the old lady I wrote above, she has witnessed all of the years in these graphs. 1938-2017.

Edit; those greens are heating oil...
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1345 on: January 10, 2018, 04:26:24 PM »
Quote
The would-be government is promising to make up ground next decade
Tick, tock...
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/01/10/international-dismay-germanys-2020-climate-target-lapse/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1346 on: January 10, 2018, 05:35:19 PM »
I'm not sure I've got the various targets straight. 

There's an EU target of a 20% reduction from 1990 levels by 2020?  Germany has met that target.



Germany set its own target of a 30% reduction by 2020 which it looks like they probably will not meet.  They were thrown off schedule by the Fukushima disaster and have been meeting strong resistance from the coal industry.

Germany, and pretty much every other country is not on track for zero CO2 by 2050. 


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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1347 on: January 10, 2018, 05:39:44 PM »
Quote
The would-be government is promising to make up ground next decade
Tick, tock...
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/01/10/international-dismay-germanys-2020-climate-target-lapse/
Even as Putin calls for the end of petrol burning vehicles in Russia, both military and civilian.
No, he wants them to convert to natural gas, not electric.
Volkswagen apparently has been interested since at least last May.


A friend in Las Vegas ran all of his cabs (a huge fleet), on propane. Very low pollution, lower cost, and vastly reduced maintenance. CNG should be a better option than propane.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1348 on: January 10, 2018, 06:00:03 PM »
Bob, it was in the first link, of that link I posted above.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/01/08/germany-set-abandon-2020-climate-target-reports/
Quote
Germany’s two biggest political parties have agreed to scrap the goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions 40% from 1990 levels by 2020.

That was reported by Reuters on Monday, citing two sources familiar with coalition negotiations.

Terry, why wouldn't Putin want to use natural gas? They have plenty.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1349 on: January 10, 2018, 07:47:03 PM »
Bob, it was in the first link, of that link I posted above.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/01/08/germany-set-abandon-2020-climate-target-reports/
Quote
Germany’s two biggest political parties have agreed to scrap the goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions 40% from 1990 levels by 2020.

That was reported by Reuters on Monday, citing two sources familiar with coalition negotiations.


Thanks.  I actually have a 20%/40% version in my storage but thought I must have misremembered the 40% so I did a fresh version with 30%.  Looks like I was correct the first time.   

Germany is going to have to break the political power of their coal industry.  Will it take Greens getting into the street again?