we can be optimistic in the longer run about dramatic technology shifts that will phase out more CO2 intense legacy technology. However, I'm not at all optimistic about short- and medium-term developments
Suppose we find ourselves stuck on a remote island that can't support us long term and with no way back to our homes. But we realize that if we could build a raft and rig a sail we could go with the prevailing winds and reach someplace populated.
Over time we figure out how to make a raft with driftwood and plastic bottles. We devise a sail out of part of a cast ashore fish net and palm fronds. We test out the raft and it works.
That's where we are now, IMO. We've put together the technology we need to save our butts. Now we've got the long sail home to make.
new technology requires new infrastructure, this means a lot of growth, and a lot of CO2.
Let's break apart the developed and less developed parts of the world.
The developed parts already have energy systems, electricity generation and grid as well as liquid fuel infrastructure. Almost all of that stuff will age out over the next 30 to 40 years and will have to be replaced with something. That is money that we will have to spend and energy we will have to use.
If we replace FF with RE we reduce CO2 emissions and we spend less.
The less developed world will need to build energy infrastructure. It's going to be less expensive to build RE. And that does not bring more CO2 emission.
The trick is to use more and more RE every year and less and less FF so that a couple of decades from now the things we make result in much less CO2 emissions. And 30(?) years from now pretty much everything we do emits no CO2.
considering that the overall cost of energy is dropping so fast, means that more energy will be used. People will buy more cars (EV), they will buy those AC systems, they will consume more.
I doubt that is true in the developed world. Energy simply doesn't cost very much, few people 'do without' because of the cost of electricity and fuel.
In the developing world energy use per capita will rise. If it's RE generated electricity that's not a problem.
Combined with terrible population growth, what's there to stop this?
Population growth is slowing. It's no longer "terrible", IMO. It's now a problem but one we can deal with.
What we have to do is to transition from a fossil fuel based life to a mostly wind, solar and hydro based life. And we have to switch to using only sustainable materials. Getting there will not be easy but it can be done.
It's not like we've got another option.