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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1350 on: January 10, 2018, 07:49:31 PM »
Quote
The would-be government is promising to make up ground next decade
Tick, tock...
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/01/10/international-dismay-germanys-2020-climate-target-lapse/
Even as Putin calls for the end of petrol burning vehicles in Russia, both military and civilian.
No, he wants them to convert to natural gas, not electric.
Volkswagen apparently has been interested since at least last May.


A friend in Las Vegas ran all of his cabs (a huge fleet), on propane. Very low pollution, lower cost, and vastly reduced maintenance. CNG should be a better option than propane.
Terry

Thailand runs a lot of cabs on CNG.  The tank fills up the trunk so luggage goes up front with you when you're  flying in/out.

And when the cab stops for a refill passengers and driver are required to get out and stand several meters away from the cab.  (Extreme?)

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1351 on: January 10, 2018, 07:55:26 PM »
Bob, it was in the first link, of that link I posted above.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/01/08/germany-set-abandon-2020-climate-target-reports/
Quote
Germany’s two biggest political parties have agreed to scrap the goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions 40% from 1990 levels by 2020.

That was reported by Reuters on Monday, citing two sources familiar with coalition negotiations.

Terry, why wouldn't Putin want to use natural gas? They have plenty.


Boy do they ever!!
They use more than amy country in the world, except of course the exceptional one. And export it like crazy.

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2017/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2017-full-report.pdf

The above is BP's energy review for 2017. It has enough data on national energy reserves, imports, and exports to prove just about any point one wants to make. 8) It closes at the end of 2016, so it's missing the new Russia to China pipeline that is doubling Russia's oil exports to the east.

A mountain of data.
Terry

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1352 on: January 10, 2018, 08:51:33 PM »
Bob, it was in the first link, of that link I posted above.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/01/08/germany-set-abandon-2020-climate-target-reports/
Quote
Germany’s two biggest political parties have agreed to scrap the goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions 40% from 1990 levels by 2020.

That was reported by Reuters on Monday, citing two sources familiar with coalition negotiations.


Thanks.  I actually have a 20%/40% version in my storage but thought I must have misremembered the 40% so I did a fresh version with 30%.  Looks like I was correct the first time.   

Germany is going to have to break the political power of their coal industry.  Will it take Greens getting into the street again?
From a naive mitigation perspective we should have kept our german lignite and supported Germany.

Terry, thanks, it's bedtime here so I'll save those numbers until tomorrow. ;)
We import most of our oil from Russia. Then Norway, Denmark, Nigeria and Venezuela...
But those are tiny numbers compared to the big boys.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1353 on: January 10, 2018, 09:33:41 PM »
All the talk about Germany left me wondering how European countries, in general, were doing with reducing CO2 levels from 1990 levels.



For all the glory thrown at France I'm surprised to see that they had the 3rd highest CO2 emissions in 1990 and were the 5th highest in 2016.

(Russia and a few other countries are not on the list.)

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1354 on: January 10, 2018, 09:42:02 PM »
Mitigation galore. 2°C, here we come.  :(
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1355 on: January 10, 2018, 09:50:30 PM »
Mitigation galore. 2°C, here we come.  :(


I'll see your 2, and raise you 0.5.


Your bet
Terry


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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1356 on: January 11, 2018, 08:38:39 AM »
Mornin', I'll pass, the odds suck.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.

oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1357 on: January 11, 2018, 01:30:08 PM »
Those percentages at the bottom of the table are shocking

Hefaistos

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1358 on: January 11, 2018, 05:43:34 PM »
Those percentages at the bottom of the table are shocking
Not really. Those countries (esp. Portugal and Turkey) have been developing out of poverty, into affluence.
Expect to see the same pattern in India, in many south Sahel African countries, in SE Asia. Combined with extreme population growth, it's hard to see anything that can stop these rising CO2 emissions. And it won't be offset with declines in the OECD countries. I'd say, 2 degrees is already locked in, and I'd guess that 2.7 degrees won't happen is a 2 sigma event.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1359 on: January 11, 2018, 09:12:47 PM »
Quote
it's hard to see anything that can stop these rising CO2 emissions

1.  Wind
2.  Solar
3.  EVs

There's no reason any longer for countries to develop on the back of coal or natural gas.

It's just a matter of a short number of years before all countries can start abandoning fossil fueled transportation.

Hefaistos

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1360 on: January 11, 2018, 10:02:38 PM »
Quote
it's hard to see anything that can stop these rising CO2 emissions

1.  Wind
2.  Solar
3.  EVs

There's no reason any longer for countries to develop on the back of coal or natural gas.

It's just a matter of a short number of years before all countries can start abandoning fossil fueled transportation.

Bob, those new technologies are wonderful, and very helpful. But they are not CO2 neutral. Specifically, EVs , which is in its infancy, need a lot of new infrastructure, new mines, new charging station networks, new electric power supply lines, power stations, battery factories etc.etc.
Also, the dynamics in poorer countries is that people are indeed poor, they can't afford the fancy new technologies. We have an S curve of adoption, and as regards EV's, I'd say we're talking about decades, not years until market dominance.

ghoti

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1361 on: January 11, 2018, 10:26:51 PM »
Quote
But they are not CO2 neutral
As compared to what? Diesel cars and trucks? Coal fired electricity?

Give me a break!

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1362 on: January 11, 2018, 10:35:47 PM »
Quote
it's hard to see anything that can stop these rising CO2 emissions

1.  Wind
2.  Solar
3.  EVs

There's no reason any longer for countries to develop on the back of coal or natural gas.

It's just a matter of a short number of years before all countries can start abandoning fossil fueled transportation.

Bob, those new technologies are wonderful, and very helpful. But they are not CO2 neutral. Specifically, EVs , which is in its infancy, need a lot of new infrastructure, new mines, new charging station networks, new electric power supply lines, power stations, battery factories etc.etc.
Also, the dynamics in poorer countries is that people are indeed poor, they can't afford the fancy new technologies. We have an S curve of adoption, and as regards EV's, I'd say we're talking about decades, not years until market dominance.

Not CO2 neutral.  Until we clean the grid so that everything we manufacture is manufactured with renewable energy.  Each year things get cleaner.

Poorer countries can afford inexpensive renewable energy easier than expensive non-renewable energy.

Perhaps a decade for EV market dominance.  Look for long range EVs to be as cheap or cheaper to purchase as same featured ICEVs in about five years.  Then five more years for the majority of new car purchasers to "get it".

Hefaistos

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1363 on: January 11, 2018, 10:58:27 PM »
Quote
But they are not CO2 neutral
As compared to what? Diesel cars and trucks? Coal fired electricity?

Give me a break!

Sure!
Discussion topic was the terrible figures of CO2 emission growth from countries developing out of poverty, not about these helpful technologies as such.
Focus point: a bunch of really poor countries in Africa and Asia with ongoing massive population growth, that are forecast to rapidly develop their economies in the coming decades, in a similar way that e.g. China has developed.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 11:32:33 PM by Hefaistos »

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1364 on: January 12, 2018, 02:30:06 AM »
Quote
But they are not CO2 neutral
As compared to what? Diesel cars and trucks? Coal fired electricity?

Give me a break!

Sure!
Discussion topic was the terrible figures of CO2 emission growth from countries developing out of poverty, not about these helpful technologies as such.
Focus point: a bunch of really poor countries in Africa and Asia with ongoing massive population growth, that are forecast to rapidly develop their economies in the coming decades, in a similar way that e.g. China has developed.

You have to take into consideration how the prices of wind and solar have moved from expensive to cheap only recently.  Let's look at US prices to get a feel...



2010 - wind was only somewhat cheaper than coal.

2013 - solar was as expensive as coal.

2015 to 2016 - Hey!  These numbers are real!

That's not enough time to see governments to change directions.  It's the old turning an aircraft carrier problem.  Takes time.  There will still be some coal plants built because some places will be slow to catch on but I'd be extremely surprised if we see any significant numbers of coal plants start construction five years from now.

It will take a few years for EVs to start to dominate new car sales.  And then it will take a few more years for used EVs to filter into developing countries and for someone to start manufacturing low cost EVs.  In a few years it should be possible to build and sell an EV with ~100 mile range for $10k or less.  It's all about battery cost.



Hefaistos

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1365 on: January 12, 2018, 01:19:40 PM »
Bob, thanks for that impressive graph!
I agree that we can be optimistic in the longer run about dramatic technology shifts that will phase out more CO2 intense legacy technology. However, I'm not at all optimistic about short- and medium-term developments, specifically driven by very strong growth in countries catching up with the affluent West. Again, new technology requires new infrastructure, this means a lot of growth, and a lot of CO2.
Also, considering that the overall cost of energy is dropping so fast, means that more energy will be used. People will buy more cars (EV), they will buy those AC systems, they will consume more. Combined with terrible population growth, what's there to stop this?
I know only one answer: natural catastrophies, that might trigger new policies also in developing countries. We see some of that starting in China and India.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1366 on: January 12, 2018, 07:28:19 PM »
Quote
we can be optimistic in the longer run about dramatic technology shifts that will phase out more CO2 intense legacy technology. However, I'm not at all optimistic about short- and medium-term developments

Suppose we find ourselves stuck on a remote island that can't support us long term and with no way back to our homes.  But we realize that if we could build a raft and rig a sail we could go with the prevailing winds and reach someplace populated.

Over time we figure out how to make a raft with driftwood and plastic bottles.  We devise a sail out of part of a cast ashore fish net and palm fronds.  We test out the raft and it works.

That's where we are now, IMO.  We've put together the technology we need to save our butts.  Now we've got the long sail home to make.

Quote
new technology requires new infrastructure, this means a lot of growth, and a lot of CO2.

Let's break apart the developed and less developed parts of the world.

The developed parts already have energy systems, electricity generation and grid as well as liquid fuel infrastructure.  Almost all of that stuff will age out over the next 30 to 40 years and will have to be replaced with something.  That is money that we will have to spend and energy we will have to use.

If we replace FF with RE we reduce CO2 emissions and we spend less.

The less developed world will need to build energy infrastructure.  It's going to be less expensive to build RE.  And that does not bring more CO2 emission.

The trick is to use more and more RE every year and less and less FF so that a couple of decades from now the things we make result in much less CO2 emissions.  And 30(?) years from now pretty much everything we do emits no CO2.

Quote
considering that the overall cost of energy is dropping so fast, means that more energy will be used. People will buy more cars (EV), they will buy those AC systems, they will consume more.

I doubt that is true in the developed world.  Energy simply doesn't cost very much, few people 'do without' because of the cost of electricity and fuel. 

In the developing world energy use per capita will rise.  If it's RE generated electricity that's not a problem.

Quote
Combined with terrible population growth, what's there to stop this?

Population growth is slowing.  It's no longer "terrible", IMO.  It's now a problem but one we can deal with. 

What we have to do is to transition from a fossil fuel based life to a mostly wind, solar and hydro based life.  And we have to switch to using only sustainable materials.  Getting there will not be easy but it can be done. 

It's not like we've got another option.




AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1367 on: January 29, 2018, 05:14:22 PM »
The IMF increased their forecast for GDP growth up to 3.9 percent for both 2018 and 2019.  It will be hard to achieve the Paris goals with this type of growth:

Title: "IMF raises global growth forecast, sees Trump tax boost:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-imf-economy-outlook/imf-raises-global-growth-forecast-sees-trump-tax-boost-idUSKBN1FB1TK

Extract: "Pointing to growth in the United States and China, the IMF forecast global growth to 3.9 percent for both 2018 and 2019, a 0.2 percentage point increase from its last update in October."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1368 on: February 05, 2018, 10:02:37 PM »
If your optimism fill you with energy to address challenges assuming high-range ECS values then your glass is 'half full'; however, if your optimism leads you to assume low-range ECS values then your glass is 'half empty':

Title: "Climate change: is the glass half full or half empty?"

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/this-is-why-we-can-be-optimistic-about-climate-change/

Extract: "There isn’t much time. According to the Paris Agreement, global emissions must peak by 2020 then start declining if we want to keep average global temperature increase under 2° Celsius."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1369 on: February 13, 2018, 02:59:00 AM »
It will be interesting to see what is actually accomplished in 2018:

Title: "Why 2018 must be a pivotal year for climate action"

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/why-2018-must-be-a-pivotal-year-for-climate-action/
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1370 on: February 13, 2018, 10:01:40 AM »
I don't use twitter anymore but that's not really needed. This is spot on as usual by Kevin Anderson and exactly what I think when it comes to all of the non proven futuristic promises (like the Hyperloop).
https://twitter.com/KevinClimate/status/962763202978250753
Quote
It would've been far easier had we started in 1990 (i.e. publication of first IPCC report). But 28yrs of technocratic scams substituting for real mitigation leaves us facing the huge challenge you rightly outline. So are we now going to continue with scams or actually mitigate?
Adding Pielkes image, which he was commenting. It starts in 1992.
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AbruptSLR

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“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1372 on: February 15, 2018, 05:10:21 PM »
To me, the dire warning in the linked article errs significantly on the side of least drama:

Title: "Leaked U.N. climate report sees ‘very high risk’ the planet will warm beyond key limit"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/02/14/leaked-u-n-climate-report-sees-very-high-risk-the-planet-will-warm-beyond-key-limit/?utm_source=rss_energy-environment&utm_term=.18b7851621db

See also:

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/01/10/2018-00291/call-for-expert-reviewers-to-contribute-to-the-us-government-review-of-the-intergovernmental-panel

 From the second link:

Quote
Experts may choose to provide comments directly through the IPCC's Expert Review process, which occurs in parallel with the U.S. Government Review. Registration opened on 15 December 2017, and runs through 18 February 2018:

 Just a guess, but I would think more scientists will prefer to comment directly to the IPCC rather than through the current US government.   Particularly the State Department. ::)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1373 on: February 18, 2018, 04:40:13 PM »
It looks like the happy talk about the rapid decline of US coal, may be greatly exaggerated; which will make it almost impossible for the US to meet its stated INDC to the Paris Accord:

Ottmar Edenhofer et al. (2018), "Reports of coal's terminal decline may be exaggerated", Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa3a2

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa3a2/meta

Abstract: "We estimate the cumulative future emissions expected to be released by coal power plants that are currently under construction, announced, or planned. Even though coal consumption has recently declined and plans to build new coal-fired capacities have been shelved, constructing all these planned coal-fired power plants would endanger national and international climate targets. Plans to build new coal-fired power capacity would likely undermine the credibility of some countries' (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the UNFCCC. If all the coal-fired power plants that are currently planned were built, the carbon budget for reaching the 2 °C temperature target would nearly be depleted. Propositions about 'coal's terminal decline' may thereby be premature. The phase-out of coal requires dedicated and well-designed policies. We discuss the political economy of policy options that could avoid a continued build-up of coal-fired power plants."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1374 on: February 18, 2018, 07:33:37 PM »
Complying with the Paris Accord is looking more & more doubtful:

Noah S. Diffenbaugh et al. (14 Feb 2018), "Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments", Science Advances, Vol. 4, no. 2, eaao3354, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aao3354

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/2/eaao3354

Abstract: "The United Nations Paris Agreement creates a specific need to compare consequences of cumulative emissions for pledged national commitments and aspirational targets of 1.5° to 2°C global warming. We find that humans have already increased the probability of historically unprecedented hot, warm, wet, and dry extremes, including over 50 to 90% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. Emissions consistent with national commitments are likely to cause substantial and widespread additional increases, including more than fivefold for warmest night over ~50% of Europe and >25% of East Asia and more than threefold for wettest days over >35% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. In contrast, meeting aspirational targets to keep global warming below 2°C reduces the area experiencing more than threefold increases to <10% of most regions studied. However, large areas—including >90% of North America, Europe, East Asia, and much of the tropics—still exhibit sizable increases in the probability of record-setting hot, wet, and/or dry events."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1375 on: February 26, 2018, 11:58:06 PM »
It would be nice to believe that the mid-range of the IPCC's radiative forcing scenarios (SSPs or RCPs) represented mankind's most probably path forwards, but the two linked articles sadly indicate that this is not likely to be the case:

Title: "INTERVIEW-Dirty industry undermines push to curb global warming - ex-UN climate chief"

http://news.trust.org/item/20180223164531-0q9x5/

Extract: ""We're definitely not on track with everything to do with heavy industry that continues to depend on intense, high-carbon electricity, and we're not on track with land use," said Figueres, former executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change"

&

Title: "Trump Takes Aim at Obama-Era Rules on Methane Leaks and Gas Flaring"

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13022018/methane-leaks-monitoring-global-warming-oil-gas-flares-air-pollution-trump-greenhouse-gas
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1376 on: February 27, 2018, 10:44:11 AM »
The US seems to be in pretty bad shape, ASLR. Over here in super green Sweden things are at least starting to move, but our leaders are not really up to date on the challenges ahead. A recent poll showed that our parlamentarians think we can fly more:
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/klimat/svenska-politiker-vi-kan-flyga-mer/

This is what's on the move here:

It's rather long but Kevin Anderson starts at 22 minutes.
Adding a couple of screen shots from that.

In short by a guest blog written by Martin Hedberg:
http://klimatriksdagen.se/martin-hedberg-gastbloggar-titanic-har-seglat-ut/

Both links should be understandable though translate.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1377 on: March 05, 2018, 11:18:38 PM »
https://www.carbonbrief.org/new-scenarios-world-limit-warming-one-point-five-celsius-2100

It s a long read. The assumptions about -ve CO2 emissions through BECCS seem a bit heroic to me.

N.B. Accompanying the publication of the study is a newly updated SSP emissions and scenario database, which includes data for all SSP scenarios. (link in the article
https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome )

GLOBAL TEMPERATURE 5 March 2018  16:55
New scenarios show how the world could limit warming to 1.5C in 2100


Quote
a paper in Nature Climate Change presents the results from a new modelling exercise using six different “integrated assessment models” (IAMs) to limit global temperatures in 2100 to below 1.5C.

Emissions must peak quickly
To limit warming to below 1.5C, all the models that the researchers examined require that global emissions peak by 2020 and decline precipitously thereafter. After 2050, the world must reduce net CO2 emissions to zero and emissions must be increasingly negative throughout the second half of the 21st century.

Emissions must go negative
Negative emissions are needed in the latter half of the century to pull the extra CO2 out of the atmosphere. This is because emissions cannot fall fast enough in the models to avoid exceeding the allowable carbon budget to avoid 1.5C warming.

Most of the models emit roughly 50-200% more CO2 than the allowable carbon budget over the course of the century, before pulling the extra CO2 back out.

The models assume widespread adoption of BECCS ( Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage) starting between 2030 and 2040 and then rapidly scaling up. By 2050, many models have BECCS producing more than 100 exajoules (EJ), roughly the same amount of energy globally as coal provides today. By 2100, BECCS will be around 200EJ compared to 300EJ for all non-biomass renewable energy.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1378 on: March 12, 2018, 08:23:06 PM »
France to commit 700 million euros to International Solar Alliance
Quote
France will commit 700 million euros to the International Solar Alliance (ISA), President Emmanuel Macron said on Sunday at the founding conference of the organization, reiterating the European country's commitment to the alliance and clean energy.

ISA is an inter-governmental organization that aims to mobilize $1 trillion in funds for future solar generation, storage and technology across the world. It has 60 signatories, with 30 of those countries having ratified the agreement.

The treaty-based organization, launched by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2015, aims to promote solar energy in 121 countries.

Speaking at the conference, Macron said France was more than tripling its commitment to the alliance, and its total monetary contribution to the alliance stood at one billion euros. ...
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1GN0JU
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1379 on: March 13, 2018, 05:43:30 AM »
Asia and the Middle East lead rising trend in arms imports, US exports grow significantly, says SIPRI
https://www.sipri.org/news/press-release/2018/asia-and-middle-east-lead-rising-trend-arms-imports-us-exports-grow-significantly-says-sipri
Quote
Continuing the upward trend that began in the early 2000s, the volume of international transfers of major weapons in 2013-17 was 10 per cent higher than in 2008-12, according to new data on arms transfers published today by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The flow of arms increased to Asia and Oceania and the Middle East between 2008–12 and 2013–17, while there was a decrease in the flow to Africa, the Americas and Europe. The five biggest exporters—the United States, Russia, France, Germany and China—together accounted for 74 per cent of all arms exports in 2013–17.

'The increased flow of arms raises concerns over their impact on international peace and security', says Ambassador Jan Eliasson, Chair of the SIPRI Governing Board. 'It stresses the need to improve and implement international mechanisms such as the Arms Trade Treaty.'
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1380 on: March 25, 2018, 07:34:13 PM »
A math excursion into Arctic sea ice.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-arctic/arctic-sea-ice-may-vanish-even-if-world-achieves-climate-goal-study-idUKKBN16D22X
Quote
“The 2 degrees Celsius target may be insufficient to prevent an ice-free Arctic,” James Screen and Daniel Williamson of Exeter University in Britain wrote in the journal Nature Climate Change after a statistical review of ice projections.

A 2C rise would still mean a 39 percent risk that ice will disappear in the Arctic Ocean in summers, they said. Ice was virtually certain to survive, however, with just 1.5C of warming.

Adding a quote and Fig1c from the study.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3248
Quote
Using Bayesian statistics allows us to compare estimates of the probability of an ice-free Arctic for the 1.5 °C or 2 °C target (Fig. 1c). We estimate there is less than a 1-in-100,000 (exceptionally unlikely, in IPCC parlance 2 ) chance of an ice-free Arctic if global warming stays below 1.5 °C, and around a 1-in-3 chance (39%; about as likely as not, in IPCC parlance) if global warming is limited to 2.0 °C. We suppose then that a summer ice-free Arctic is virtually certain to be avoided if the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement is met. However, the 2 °C target may be insufficient to prevent an ice-free Arctic. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the Nationally Determined Contributions submitted by countries to support the Paris Agreement (which imply warming of around 3 °C; ref. 10) would likely (in IPCC parlance; 73%) lead to the Arctic becoming ice-free (Fig. 1c).

Edit; forgot to mention that "ref.10" in the quote above is to Rogelj, J. et al. Nature 534 2016:
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature18307
« Last Edit: March 26, 2018, 07:16:08 AM by Sleepy »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1381 on: March 29, 2018, 10:22:12 PM »
The linked SkS article concludes that as extant measurements of climate change are uncertain, fighting climate change simply comes down to cutting carbon pollution as fast as possible.  Unfortunately, the business world believes that if something is not worth measuring then it is not worth doing.

Title: "Climate scientists debate a flaw in the Paris climate agreement"

https://www.skepticalscience.com/flaw-paris-agreement-millar-schurer.html

Extract: "The debate lies in exactly how the Paris climate target is defined and measured, which has not been precisely established. Millar’s team used the UK Met Office and Hadley Centre global surface temperature dataset called HadCRUT4, which begins in 1850 and estimates global surface temperatures have warmed about 0.9°C since that time. The team thus calculated the remaining carbon budget that will lead to an additional 0.6°C warming.

But HadCRUT4 has some significant flaws. First, it only covers 84% of Earth’s surface. There are large gaps in its coverage, mainly in the Arctic, Antarctica, and Africa, where temperature monitoring stations are relatively scarce. And the Arctic is the fastest-warming part of the planet, which means that HadCRUT4 somewhat underestimates global warming.

A second issue is that over the oceans, HadCRUT4 uses sea surface temperatures, which haven’t warmed quite as fast as air temperatures directly above the ocean surface. There’s also a third issue – what’s the start date from which we want to stay below 1.5 or 2°C warming? The starting point in HadCRUT4 is 1850, but another recent study led by Schurer found that starting even earlier would add up to 0.2°C to the warming we’ve already caused, and thus shrink the remaining carbon budget.

Taken all together, these three issues could mean that we’ve already warmed 0.2–0.3°C more than estimated in the Millar study, which would mean a significantly smaller carbon budget. Each additional 0.1°C warming shrinks the remaining 2°C carbon budget by about 20%, so in that sense even one-tenth of a degree is important in answering this question about our chances of meeting the Paris targets.

It’s simple: cut carbon pollution as much and as fast as possible"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1382 on: March 31, 2018, 04:30:28 PM »
...
Unfortunately, the business world believes that if something is not worth measuring then it is not worth doing.


But more and more cities and businesses are discovering that money-saving changes will also cut carbon!  Measuring and announcing carbon cuts are sometimes just a by-product, simply public relations efforts covering things they wanted to do anyway.  It’s a start....

Related links:
https://cleancities.energy.gov

https://www.greenbiz.com/article/more-companies-are-tracking-carbon-emissions-it-helping
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1383 on: April 02, 2018, 04:27:17 PM »

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s support of oil producer will make it difficult for investors to push oil & gas companies towards more sustainable behavior:

Title: "Investors stunned over oil producer’s climate-change exemption"

https://www.axios.com/automation-jobs-future-retraining-workers-e9fea761-18c3-49bb-834f-6d25819e1a1c.html

Extract: "A new twist is unfolding in the fight between activist investors and the oil industry: an unprecedented move by federal regulators allowing a major producer to preemptively kill a shareholder resolution on climate change without a vote."

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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1384 on: April 02, 2018, 05:13:05 PM »
India's Paris Agreement pledge was to reduce its carbon intensity.  Thus its carbon emissions are continuing to increase rapidly because its economic is growing rapidly:

Title: "Guest post: Why India’s CO2 emissions grew strongly in 2017"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-indias-co2-emissions-grew-strongly-in-2017

Extract: "India’s CO2 emissions grew by an estimated 4.6% in 2017, despite a turbulent year for its economy.

Measured per person, India’s emissions are still very low – at only 1.8 tonnes of CO2 per capita – which is much lower than the world average of 4.2 tonnes. But those emissions have been growing steadily, with an average growth rate over the past decade of 6%.

With India being the world’s fourth largest emitter of CO2, it is important to understand what the country’s emissions are currently and where they might be headed. Given India’s early stage of economic development, low per-capita emissions and its large population, there is significant scope for its emissions to increase.

India’s pledge under the Paris Agreement is to reduce the carbon intensity (see below) of its economy by 33-35% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. Given projections of very strong economic growth over this period, emissions are expected to grow significantly."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1385 on: April 03, 2018, 12:57:10 AM »
Pruitt is going to roll back the EPA auto emissions standard to pre-Obama levels. >:(

Title: "EPA Administrator Pruitt: GHG Emissions Standards for Cars and Light Trucks Should Be Revised"

https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-administrator-pruitt-ghg-emissions-standards-cars-and-light-trucks-should-be

Extract: "Today, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Scott Pruitt is announcing the completion of the Midterm Evaluation (MTE) process for the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards for cars and light trucks for model years 2022-2025, and his final determination that, in light of recent data, the current standards are not appropriate and should be revised. Administrator Pruitt is also announcing the start of a joint process with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to develop a notice and comment rulemaking to set more appropriate GHG emissions standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.

“The Obama Administration's determination was wrong,” said EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt. “Obama’s EPA cut the Midterm Evaluation process short with politically charged expediency, made assumptions about the standards that didn’t comport with reality, and set the standards too high.”"
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oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1386 on: April 04, 2018, 07:48:59 AM »
Thomas, all you wrote is interesting but OT in this thread.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1387 on: April 06, 2018, 07:31:50 AM »
What was OT? The US?  ;)

Cross posting this here as well.
http://climateinvestigations.org/shell-oil-climate-documents-revealed/
Quote
“However, by the time the global warming becomes detectable it could be too late to take effective countermeasures to reduce the effects or even to stabilize the situation.”
Quote
“While climate change is not a high priority for most people early in the century, NGOs continue to lobby against inaction on the Kyoto protocol…. In 2010, a series of violent storms causes extensive damage to the eastern coast of the US. Although it is not clear whether the storms are caused by climate change, people are not willing to take further chances. The insurance industry refuses to accept liability, setting off a fierce debate over who is liable: the insurance industry, or the government. After all, two successive IPCC reports since 1995 have reinforced the human connection to climate change.”
Quote
“Following the storms, a coalition of environmental NGOs brings a class-action suit against the US government and fossil-fuel companies on the grounds of neglecting what scientists (including their own) have been saying for years: that something must be done. A social. reaction to the use of fossil fuels grows, and individuals become “vigilante environmentalists” in the same way, a generation earlier, they had become fiercely anti-tobacco. Direct-action campaigns against companies escalate. Young consumers, especially, demand action…The power, auto, and oil industries see billions wiped off their market value overnight.”

Still, not one nation is near the required emission drops of ~10%/yr.
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1388 on: April 06, 2018, 10:47:28 AM »
Probably not Thomas, here's a previous comment about our challenges in Sweden:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1150.msg143576.html#msg143576
There's also a following comment on what I think we should do.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1150.msg143635.html#msg143635
Certainly not popular and noone to enforce it, so instead we occupy ourselves with more complex solutions like this, watch the interview with Laila Pawlak:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,861.msg148757.html#msg148757

All good intentions, as the road to hell is known to be paved with. Many humans still fail to see the speed of climate change and the consequences. Reading about these things never hits you the same way as talking with someone who has memories from +80 years ago.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1021.msg138230.html#msg138230
I'm going to pay her a visit again tomorrow. Thought about making a documentary about her and her late husband but it would've been a lot more interesting if I did that before he died. She's still very sharp but he was really something special, never a dull moment when talking to him. A very, very long time ago I had him as a math teacher, only found that out ten years ago.
Missed opportunities is part of life, better catch the next one.

Sorry for this OT rant.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1389 on: April 10, 2018, 06:27:23 PM »
Environmental group in Switzerland calls for making trains more appealing, and adding fees and taxes on less sustainable transport.

Environmental alliance calls on Switzerland to encourage sustainable travel
Quote
If Switzerland wants to achieve the targets set by the Paris climate agreement, it must make climate-friendly modes of travel more attractive, an environmental group said in an open letter on Monday. 

Written by the Coalition for Aviation, Environment and Health and the green transport association, the letter demanded that the government levy plane ticket fees and kerosene taxes to make more sustainable modes of travel, such as night trains, a more appealing option for the Swiss.
...
Presented to the Federal Office of Transportexternal link on Monday, the letter’s authors pointed out that the climate impact of air transport represents 18% of Switzerland’s total climate impact, and that the Swiss travel twice as often by air than inhabitants of neighbouring European countries. ...
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-change_environmental-alliance-calls-on-switzerland-to-encourage-sustainable-travel/44031644
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1390 on: April 11, 2018, 05:49:42 AM »
Aligning fossil fuel production with the Paris Agreement.
Quote
Key messages
• The 2018 Talanoa Dialogue is a crucial opportunity to increase climate mitigation ambition
and effectiveness by putting fossil fuel supply on the international climate agenda.
• Managing a decline in global fossil fuel production is essential to meeting the Paris Agree-
ment’s 1.5-2°C temperature limits.
• Policies that restrict the supply of fossil fuels – as a complement to those that limit their
demand – can lead to greater mitigation potential, cost-effectiveness, benefits to health and
the local environment, enhanced popular support for climate action, and reduced carbon
lock-in.
• Supply-side policies are gaining ground globally, from moratoria on new production explo-
ration licenses, to divestment from fossil fuel holdings, to transition plans for workers. But
much work remains to be done.
• Parties should plan the transition away from fossil fuel production to ensure that it is well
managed, just and equitable. To this end, NDCs and long-term strategies provide a platform
to set and discuss targets and policies.
• The UNFCCC process can play a key role in raising the profile of supply-side policies and em-
powering Parties and non-Party stakeholders to take action in support of effective policies.

Quote
Conclusion
Until recently, managing the decline of fossil fuel production has received limited attention among strategies to achieve the international community’s climate change objectives. However, meeting the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets will require tackling both fossil fuel consumption and fossil fuel production. The 2018 Talanoa Dialogue provides a unique opportunity for stakeholders to discuss policies, strategies and platforms to plan for a just transition, one that brings fossil fuel production in line with the goals set in Paris, and ensures decisions are made for the collective good.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1391 on: April 15, 2018, 06:51:25 PM »
Climate change task force suggests Alaska ‘be bold’
Quote
Most of the meeting focused on the draft climate change policy that the team released Thursday. It includes recommendations to reduce carbon emissions in Alaska by 2030, diversify the state economy beyond fossil fuels and mobilize funding from government and the private sector for climate change adaptation.
http://www.newsminer.com/news/local_news/climate-change-task-force-suggests-alaska-be-bold/article_d9cc939e-3fb7-11e8-b137-9f86b1965924.html
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1392 on: April 16, 2018, 08:38:37 AM »
Quote
But University of Alaska President Jim Johnsen said that, while he believes in the urgency of the issues, it’s not the language he would choose.

“I just finished reading a book … about the French Revolution, and there was a great deal of passion and boldness there,” he said. “And about 40,000 people died in that process. So I think we need to keep that in context with what is actually practical, what is actually achievable and what is actually cost effective.”
Maybe read a more recent book on climate change related deaths? The most cost effective strategy for everyone on this planet is mitigation.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1393 on: April 16, 2018, 07:57:03 PM »
Former coal industry lobbyist Andrew Wheeler was confirmed Thursday as the No. 2 official at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, putting him in line to take interim charge of the agency if Administrator Scott Pruitt is toppled by his ethical missteps.”

Coal Lobbyist Becomes No. 2 Official at EPA, Just Behind Pruitt
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12042018/epa-andrew-wheeler-senate-confirmation-vote-murray-energy-coal-lobbyist-climate-denial-inhofe-pruitt
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1394 on: April 16, 2018, 08:39:48 PM »
Former coal industry lobbyist Andrew Wheeler was confirmed Thursday as the No. 2 official at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, putting him in line to take interim charge of the agency if Administrator Scott Pruitt is toppled by his ethical missteps.”

Coal Lobbyist Becomes No. 2 Official at EPA, Just Behind Pruitt
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12042018/epa-andrew-wheeler-senate-confirmation-vote-murray-energy-coal-lobbyist-climate-denial-inhofe-pruitt


He should be able to protect us from regulations, regulators, and regular people who just want to breath regular air. :-\
Terry

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1395 on: April 16, 2018, 08:51:05 PM »
Fortunately many of these regulation reversals that Trump, Inc. is doing don't automatically go into effect.  Many/most can be significantly delayed in the courts and some are written so that they can't be reversed quickly.  Long enough that we have the option of putting Democrats back in charge in 2020 and nullifying Trump's actions.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1396 on: April 16, 2018, 08:58:58 PM »
Fortunately many of these regulation reversals that Trump, Inc. is doing don't automatically go into effect.  Many/most can be significantly delayed in the courts and some are written so that they can't be reversed quickly.  Long enough that we have the option of putting Democrats back in charge in 2020 and nullifying Trump's actions.
Ramen Bob, but don't forget about winning State seats in 2018. With Gerrymandering as it will be after the 2020 census, those long thin twisted districts will be hard to win.
Terry

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1397 on: April 16, 2018, 09:20:35 PM »
Conditions look very good for taking the House this year.  Republicans are generally losing special elections in places where Trump won by very large margins.  The Republican party has discussed giving up on the House and using their campaign funds to defend the Senate.

It would be extremely helpful to take back the Senate.  That would stop Trump from packing federal courts with more right wing judges.  Those are appointments for life and some of his picks have been not only far right, they've been totally unqualified to be a judge.  One pick had never tried a case in a court of law and had no real idea how the court system worked.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1398 on: April 16, 2018, 09:33:28 PM »
Environmental group in Switzerland calls for making trains more appealing, and adding fees and taxes on less sustainable transport.
Regarding trains and buses I think Switzerland is paradise already. Even members of parliament ride the train to work in Bern. The Postbus serves the remotest valleys 3x a day.
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Alexander555

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1399 on: April 16, 2018, 09:39:18 PM »
The UN climate agreement, it all sound nice. But this year again , is demand for oil going up by 1,5 million barrels a day. To an all time high just below 100 million barrels a day.