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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1500 on: July 01, 2018, 10:11:44 PM »
These Are the Toughest Emissions to Cut, and a Big Chunk of the Climate Problem
Without improvements in shipping, cement and steel, major sources of greenhouse gas pollution will be locked in for generations, new research shows.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062018/global-warming-pollution-industrial-sources-cement-steel-trade-solutions-technology-shipping
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1501 on: July 05, 2018, 10:13:59 AM »
Kevin Lister, research fellow at Climate Institute, Washington D.C. argues for the need to lower the global average temperature to +0,5°C above pre.industrial. And the use of SRM.



https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/97_Talanoa%20Submission_climate%20institute.pdf

Quote
1. Situation Overview
 
This response to the UN Talanoa Dialogue has been prepared by a consortium of leading climate change scientists, academics and institutions that are focused on developing and encouraging realistic and practical technical and policy responses to stabilize the climate at a level that will fully meet the stated objective of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
 
Our conclusion is that the risk of very serious environmental and societal impacts, including the potential for a near-term, nonlinear and irreversible step change in the planet’s climate is so great that an aggressive climate restoration program needs to be initiated to return the global average temperature to no more than 0.5ºC above its preindustrial level. This program must be comprehensive, pursuing a multi-pronged approach that includes greatly strengthening efforts based on efficiency and mitigation, building up of efforts to restore carbon levels in the soils and land cover, and researching and then likely needing to initiate climate intervention efforts in the near-term to not only ensure the global average temperature does not exceed 1.5ºC at any time (so no overshoot), but also will put the climate on a pathway to a global average temperature characteristic of the mid- to late 20th century when conditions were generally within the range of natural variability under which society and prevailing ecosystems were not facing severe threats (a global average temperate estimated to be no more than 0.5ºC above its preindustrial level).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1502 on: July 08, 2018, 12:50:17 PM »
The Netherlands contemplates the world’s toughest climate law
A new Dutch proposal would put climate at the center of national politics.
Quote
Last week, a coalition of seven Dutch political parties unveiled a climate policy proposal that is breathtaking in its ambition. If it becomes law, it will codify the most stringent targets for greenhouse gas reductions of any country in the world.

There are still several steps between the proposal and passage, including debate in both houses of Parliament, and lawmakers may make changes. But given the broad political support — the parties involved control 113 of 150 seats in Parliament — it is widely expected to pass in something like its current form by late next summer.

It would be the world’s eighth national climate law (after the UK, Mexico, Denmark, Finland, France, Norway, and Sweden), but it boasts a few features that make it particularly notable.

It’s bipartisan! Or rather, heptapartisan.

Here in the US, we’ve grown depressingly accustomed to climate battles breaking down along partisan lines: Democrats push (inadequate) solutions; Republicans deny that the problem exists or that anything needs to be done about it.

In contrast, the Dutch proposal is supported by a coalition of parties ranging from the far left to the center-right, together representing a large majority of seats in the Dutch Parliament. (One notable absence: the right-wing populist party, Party for Freedom, led by notorious Islamophobe Geert Wilders.) The current prime minister, Mark Rutte, leads the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), which is one of the bill’s primary supporters.
...
If passed as proposed, the Dutch law would be the world’s most stringent, putting into statute the following targets:

• 49 percent reduction in greenhouse gases (relative to 1990 levels) by 2030
• 95 percent reduction by 2050
• 100 percent carbon-neutral electricity by 2050
...
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/7/6/17535720/netherlands-dutch-climate-law-paris-targets
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1503 on: July 08, 2018, 02:27:30 PM »
I am writing a submission to th City Of York's Local Plan. I can't quite believe what I've just written.

Quote
As I write this (8th July 2018), the Guardian's Carbon countdown clock gives the remaining catbon budget for staying below 2C as 736.5 billion tonnes of CO2e (CO2- equivalent) considerably less than in the diagram. That's just over 100 tones CO2e for every person on Earth. For a temperature rise of  1.5C the remaining CO2e budget is under 2.2 billion tonnes CO2e or 0.3 tonnes for every person on Earth.

Is this sensible?
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1504 on: July 08, 2018, 04:31:32 PM »
I am writing a submission to th City Of York's Local Plan. I can't quite believe what I've just written.

Quote
As I write this (8th July 2018), the Guardian's Carbon countdown clock gives the remaining catbon budget for staying below 2C as 736.5 billion tonnes of CO2e (CO2- equivalent) considerably less than in the diagram. That's just over 100 tones CO2e for every person on Earth. For a temperature rise of  1.5C the remaining CO2e budget is under 2.2 billion tonnes CO2e or 0.3 tonnes for every person on Earth.

Is this sensible?

1) Spellchecker!

2) People are now poorly educated about the physical world they live in. (Gotta learn their IT and social media skills). Most people find it hard to relate physical quantities to their lives. When I used to write stuff for general use as opposed to fellow professionals I put all the technical stuff in appendices - and in a very short summary tried to shove the messages (maximum 3) down the throats of my target audience in terms that related to their personal lives (for you that means in York).

So quoting tonnes probably won't have much impact, nor will tonnes per person on earth. So I guess I would shove the technical stuff in the appendix (to show you know your stuff) and in the front:-
- show the probability that 1.5 degrees is toast - no time left,
- show that 2 degrees might well be toast - not a lot of time left,
- show that we are talking this half-century.
What will the effects on York likely to be ?
Water supply?
Floods?
Droughts?
What can York do to play its part and also mitigate effects of climate change?
Water supply?
Stop building on flood plains?
Parks and forests?
Renewable energy?
Public Transport - EV's, cycle networks.

You gotta sell a story - that makes people want to continue where you have stopped. Propaganda rules.
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1505 on: July 08, 2018, 05:22:25 PM »
gerontocrat.   Thanks. That's helpful.
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1506 on: July 10, 2018, 10:50:58 AM »
I'm still fiddling with figures for a submission to the York Local Plan. Note for writing up in English:

Quote
Carbon Clock (Guardian) says remaining carbon budget in CO2e for 2°C is 736 Gt CO2e

World population is 7.6 billion

So that's nearly 100 tonnes CO2e each

Global Carbon Project says CO2 emissions in 2016 were 40+ Gt (including land use change)

Increase by 25% to get 50 Gt CO2e /year

That's 7 tonnes per person which will last 14 years.

A bit longer if reductions happen soon.

Anything seriously wrong?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1507 on: July 11, 2018, 07:45:04 PM »
At least half of products and services to be low carbon in ten years, say majority of businesses with Paris-aligned climate commitments
- 1 in 5 executives with science-based emissions reduction goals expect 100% of their company’s products and services to be low carbon by 2028;
- Environment seen as the second biggest factor influencing business growth in the next five years;
- Bottom line savings for nearly a third of companies as a result of ambitious emissions cutting goals.
Quote
(10 July 2018): A new YouGov survey of global corporations in the Science Based Targets initiative has found that more than half of executives (52%) expect at least 50% of their products and services to be low carbon by 2028.[1] Of these, nearly 1 in 5 (19%) predict close to 100% will be low carbon in ten years’ time.

The companies surveyed have already set, or committed to set, science-based targets to cut their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in line with the rates required to keep global warming below 2°C. ...
https://sciencebasedtargets.org/2018/07/10/at-least-half-of-products-and-services-to-be-low-carbon-in-ten-years-say-majority-of-businesses-with-paris-aligned-climate-commitments/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1508 on: July 11, 2018, 08:53:52 PM »
Big Breaking News: California reports it's greenhouse gas emissions target of 2020 was reached by the end of 2016, four years early.

Quote
In a major win for California’s fight against global warming, the state appears to have hit its first target for cutting greenhouse gases — and it reached the goal four years early.

Data released by the California Air Resource Board on Wednesday show that the state’s greenhouse gas emissions dropped 2.7 percent in 2016 — the latest year available — to 429.4 million metric tonnes.

That’s slightly better than the 431 million metric tonnes the state produced in 1990. And California law requires that the state’s emissions, which peaked in 2004, return to 1990 levels by 2020.

Since the peak, emissions have dropped 13 percent. And they have continued falling in recent years even as the state’s economy surged.

California is not done. State law also mandates that emissions drop another 40 percent by 2030. And while analysts were confident the state would hit its 2020 target, they aren’t as certain about 2030.

“In California we see the impacts of climate change all around us, but our efforts to curb its worst impacts are on track,” said Mary Nichols, chairwoman of the Air Resources Board.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/amp/California-hits-2020-greenhouse-gas-reduction-13066821.php
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1509 on: July 12, 2018, 01:47:14 PM »
Californian Emissions

At 429 million tonnes CO2e, that's 10.86 tonnes per Californian. I would have assumed much worse.

Is there a catch? Are these just production emissions not consumption emissions?

I'm pleased to report the UK Committee on Climate Change is getting more open about this issue.



Where was the steel made for all those cars in California?
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1510 on: July 12, 2018, 03:37:30 PM »
HADCRUT4 and the Paris agreement

There is an interesting article on Carbon Brief  Permafrost and wetland emissions could cut 1.5C carbon budget ‘by five years' describing a paper in Nature Geoscience

This work is, of course, very welcome. Getting a better grip of the size of some of the feedbacks missing from the CMIP5 models will (or should) be important to policy makers.

However, I note they use the HadCRUT4 temperature measure, which ignores the Arctic with its faster rising temperatures. HADCRUT4 is also a mix of sea surface temperature and temperatures measured a metre or so above the land surface. Land temperatures are rising significantly faster.

HADCRUT4 does not include the temperature of the oceans below the surface. This is the main driver for sea level rise.

So this paper does not easily translate to an estimate of the full nasty effects of raised temperatures on land or - something that was important in the Paris agreement- the drowning of the Maldives.
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Bruce Steele

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1511 on: July 12, 2018, 06:06:38 PM »
Geoff,  I think the Calif Air Resourses Board is proud of their new report , where we are as a measure of where we need to go.
I haven't gone into the report but the first two circle charts are interesting. We have good hydro resources and there are thousands
of acres of solar already installed. The report does include the CO2 emissions of imported electricity. Metal for imported cars? I don't know.


https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htm

jacksmith4tx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1512 on: July 12, 2018, 07:21:02 PM »
As Americans Experienced the Warmest May on Record Their Acceptance of Global Warming Reaches a New High
http://closup.umich.edu/files/ieep-nsee-2018-spring-climate-belief.pdf
Key Findings:
1. More Americans think that there is solid evidence of global warming than at anytime since 2008 with 73% maintaining this view in the latest version of the NSEE conducted in late April and May of 2018.
2. A record 60% of Americans now think that global warming is happening and that humans are at least partially responsible for the rising temperatures.
3. While half of Republicans think that there is solid evidence of global warming, the divide between the 90% of Democrats that hold this view and the 50% of Republicans that maintain this position is as large as anytime since 2008.
4. The divide between Democrats and Republicans on the existence of anthropogenic induced global warming is also at record levels with 78% of Democrats now holding the view that humans are at least partially responsible for warming on the planet compared to only 35% of Republicans.

It seems to me the litmus test of if you are a Republican is if you reject global warming, full stop. As a corollary, the more you heat the brains of right wingers the less they believe the science.
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1513 on: July 15, 2018, 07:49:33 AM »
Californian Emissions

At 429 million tonnes CO2e, that's 10.86 tonnes per Californian. I would have assumed much worse.

Is there a catch? Are these just production emissions not consumption emissions?

...

Where was the steel made for all those cars in California?
Via Sig's link(s):

A Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Inventory of San Francisco Bay Area Neighborhoods.
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2sn7m83z
Fig1 attached.

A recent study; Carbon footprints of 13 000 cities:
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aac72a/meta
http://citycarbonfootprints.info/
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1514 on: July 15, 2018, 08:25:03 AM »
Hmm, guess football didn't come home but England triumphs in Carbon World Cup?
https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/2730533/England%20triumph%20in%20Carbon%20World%20Cup%20.pdf
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1515 on: July 15, 2018, 10:41:06 AM »
Article by Oliver Geden, in German.
https://www.klimafakten.de/meldung/15-grad-limit-der-machbarkeits-pokal-gehoert-die-vitrine
Link to the comment in Nature it's based on (in English) at the bottom.
https://rdcu.be/0TiG
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1516 on: July 15, 2018, 09:43:16 PM »
Sleepy

Just found your very helpful answer

Thanks


A Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Inventory of San Francisco Bay Area Neighborhoods has

Quote
The carbon footprint of the average S.F. Bay Area household (Figure 1) is 44.3 metric tons of CO2  equivalent gases per year (16.3 tons tCO2e per person). This compares to about 50 metric tons for the average U.S. household.
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1517 on: July 16, 2018, 10:05:51 AM »
Just trying to connect the dots GB. Speaking of which:
Anyone who has access to the article mentioned here in LAtimes by Leah Stokes?
https://twitter.com/leahstokes/status/1018509457058344961
I just got this:
Quote
Unfortunately, our website is currently unavailable in most European countries. We are engaged on the issue and committed to looking at options that support our full range of digital offerings to the EU market. We continue to identify technical compliance solutions that will provide all readers with our award-winning journalism.
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1518 on: July 17, 2018, 04:16:19 PM »
The Sustainable Development Goals are slipping out of reach.
The world isn’t making progress on the UN’s 17 benchmarks for a more just and environmentally sound society–and the U.S. has abdicated leadership.
https://www.fastcompany.com/90200488/the-sustainable-development-goals-are-slipping-out-of-reach

Quote
In 2018, data on how countries are approaching these goals paints a pretty grim picture.

For the first time, the SDSN was able to aggregate enough present and historical data to determine trends in how countries are grappling with each one of the SDGs. While countries like Sweden, Denmark, and Finland top the list with scores in the 80s (as they generally do each year, along with global happiness rankings–a correlation that SDSN Director Jeffrey Sachs thinks is not without meaning), trends in the data show that they need to significantly accelerate progress if they’re going to achieve the targets for climate action and sustainable consumption and production by 2030. In other words, even countries that are doing well, are not doing well fast enough.

And then there’s the United States. Its score of 73 is not terrible, but it also shows some troubling trends. “While the U.S. is doing well if you look at the economy, we’re quite bad on social fairness and environmental sustainability,” Sachs says. “Trump is pointing us in an absolutely devastating direction because his whole policy mindset is even less fairness, more benefits for the rich, and an outright war on the environment. He basically represents short-term greed.”

But it would be a mistake, Sachs adds, to blame the U.S.’s poor performance on the SDGs on Trump. “The U.S. has been off-track for a long time,” Sachs says. For the past 30 or so years, he adds, the country has been operating under a political system that appeases corporations–many of them extractive fossil-fuel companies–over individuals. Compared to the Scandinavian countries at the top of the SDG rankings, the U.S.’s protections for vulnerable residents and the environment are all but nonexistent. In 1997, the country had an opportunity to implement the Kyoto Protocol, an earlier attempt to limit carbon emissions and keep climate change in check, but then-President Bill Clinton never passed the legislation onto Congress, knowing that the conservative Senate would refuse to approve it. Obama, while he signed onto the Paris Accord, faced stonewalling from his conservative Congress in passing many more progressive environmental and social protections.
My bold.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1519 on: July 17, 2018, 04:39:29 PM »
Article by Oliver Geden, in German.
https://www.klimafakten.de/meldung/15-grad-limit-der-machbarkeits-pokal-gehoert-die-vitrine

Open the link with chrome, highlight the text, and it will ask you if you want to translate. Not bad.

Quote
1.5 degree limit: The "Feasibility Cup" belongs in the showcase
Climate policy likes to set lofty goals, but does not act accordingly. Climatologists and policy advisers should therefore present the facts in a way that makes it harder for politicians to avoid the practical consequences of the climate change that they accept. A guest post by Oliver Geden

Climate policy likes to set lofty goals, but does not act accordingly. beginning, middle, and end of story.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1520 on: July 18, 2018, 09:18:39 PM »
Palau is in the middle of a new experiment: Over the next year and a half, the country will shift to 100% renewable energy, at no cost to the government, in what is likely to be the fastest national transition to renewable energy ever to occur.

This island nation is making the fastest-ever shift to renewables
The island nation of Palau plans to stop buying diesel and go 100% solar by the end of 2019–and offer a blueprint for other island nations to do the same.
https://amp.fastcompany.com/90203041/this-island-nation-is-making-the-fastest-ever-shift-to-renewables

Cross post from Renewables thread.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1521 on: July 19, 2018, 03:39:15 AM »
Palau: population 21,503

Lurk

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1522 on: July 19, 2018, 06:34:47 AM »
Palau: population 21,503

Yes but they have 10,000 Tesla Model 3s on order. World's biggest per capita uptake of EVs in history. So top that! :)
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1523 on: July 19, 2018, 09:36:38 AM »
Palau? What about the average American Tanker Truck?
It must be empty, this is from 2012.

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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1524 on: July 19, 2018, 10:02:00 AM »
Kevin-Quotes of the day:

Leadership occurs when the singular becomes collective. It's a system property that cant be understood soley in terms of individual behaviour. You're part of a movement that is catalysing system leadership whilst highlighting the falsehood of those discrediting individual action.

Many dangerous religions hide behind a veil of Empiricism; Cost-benefit analysis & Integrated Assessment models are two religions regularly held up as 'objective'. We cannot escape 'morality' & believing we can is itself a religion. Better that we open up our morals for critique.

Edit; since I do not wish to contribute to fake news on this forum I should point out that both are Kevin Anderson tweets and that the first quote is from the 16th and the second from yesterday.  :)
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1525 on: July 19, 2018, 12:59:53 PM »

Edit; since I do not wish to contribute to fake news on this forum I should point out that both are Kevin Anderson tweets and that the first quote is from the 16th and the second from yesterday.  :)

So which Kevin Andersen is tweeting this stuff?
Presumably not this one:-
Quote
Kevin Andersen | Parsons Accounting & Tax Services
www.parsonsaccounting.com/team/kevin-t-andersen
Kevin enjoys providing personalized tax and accounting services to individuals and small businesses. He currently runs his own CPA firm located in Half Moon ...

or this one ?:-

Quote
Kevin Andersen wins $100,000 August grand prize - ESPN Streak
streak.espn.com/en/story?pageName=streak\augustwinner10
Andersen's W25 was good for $100k in August '10. Kevin Andersen of Memphis, Tenn., recorded a 25-game win streak to capture the $100,000 Streak for the ...

or this one?:-

Quote
WIMBLEDON 2018: Roger Federer knocked out by Kevin Andersen in ...
https://www.republicworld.com/.../wimbledon-2018-roger-federer-knocked-out-by-k...
11 Jul 2018 - Roger Federer will have to wait to win his 21st Grand Slam and ninth Wimbledon title after he was defeated.

And why are the tweets of such moment ?
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oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1526 on: July 19, 2018, 03:03:33 PM »
So which Kevin Andersen is tweeting this stuff?
And why are the tweets of such moment ?
I can only answer your first question, but it's Kevin AndersOn as Sleepy mentioned, and I believe it's this guy https://twitter.com/KevinClimate
Quote
Professor of energy and climate change - interested in translating the science of climate change into carbon budgets, policy goals and mitigation options.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1527 on: July 19, 2018, 03:58:33 PM »
Do you think Climate "Kevin from Manchester" Anderson has been mentioned too many times in this thread? Starts in 2014 at #6 by wili and then a gazillion times more, especially in the last several pages.

The second quote is Kevin's reply to Caldeira, which might be useful to read as well:
https://twitter.com/KevinClimate/status/1019506619326128128
This is more or less where discussions on this forum has been hovering for years.
My personal take on this hasn't changed at all.
Maybe they are just trying to be positive.
But maintaining a positive attitude, while beeing lazy, will fail. It doesn't matter if you want to be successful in marathon, or be successful in mitigation.

Which was a reply to this:
OrganicSu, I haven't seen that article but it refers to the same study as I posted above, but with a complimentary share in the article, thanks! I'll save that projection...

Considering all of those deniers who only read headlines, that headline is really bad.

Love the non-mention of upward revisions in the previous two years (1.1% to 1.7% in 2013 and 0.0 to 0.6% in 2014) and the massive (13%!) uncertainty in Chinese emissions -- also note massive consumption drop to 2-3%/a over the last year. Decoupling my ass.


Seriously, are people willing to accept this stuff at face value even after multiple massive upward revisions in Chinese emissions over the past few years (including the recent one)?

Slowing I can buy -- after all, there was a period of outright contraction in industrial output earlier this year. But the claims of a huge change in decarbonization and decoupling are extremely premature -- if not outright farcical, just like the 1.5C "target" being thrown around right now. We'll only know a few years from now.

In the meantime, Mauna Loa is a better gauge after ENSO adjustment.

Now we know, which is also why I found these quotes by Kevin Anderson of such moment and I think this is pivotal for our collective mitigation efforts.

Our Seneca ship,


 is sailing into this:
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1528 on: July 19, 2018, 07:56:23 PM »
Too many threads for my tired brain.

So Kevin Anderson knows his stuff, and a deep thinker as well. Trouble is, those who presume to govern us are not listening. I posted this on the renewable energy thread (yesterday I think).

I am a member of the English Green Party - but even they seem to be distracted by social justice issues, the environment lost in all the surrounding media noise.

What to do (while this old man still can) ?

Quote
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2952 on: Today at 10:49:35 AM »
QuoteModifyRemove
Things are going a bit wrong.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/17/iea-warns-of-worrying-trend-as-global-investment-in-renewables-falls


The world’s energy watchdog has sounded the alarm over a “worrying” pause in the shift to clean energy after global investment in  fell 7% to $318bn (£240bn) last year.

The International Energy Agency said the decline is set to continue into 2018, threatening energy security, climate change and air pollution goals.

Fossil fuels increased their share of energy supply investment for the first time since 2014, to $790bn, and will play a significant role for years on current trends, the IEA said.

Investment in coal power dropped sharply but was offset by an uptick in oil and gas spending, the World Energy Investment report found.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Lurk

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1529 on: July 20, 2018, 04:29:52 AM »
What to do (while this old man still can) ?

Respectfully, do what you can and drop the rest (especially the sense of carrying a burden). iow look after yourself first gerontocrat. You have a right to enjoy your life too. Whatever makes you happy and gives you a sense of purpose and personal satisfaction. Helping others always helps but there is limit to what anyone can do. You included you must respect your limits and accept that.

Like that quote you posted from the guardian. That's a good helpful thing to do. It makes a difference sharing things like that. (I noticed it even though I did not comment but I saved it - I will share it elsewhere one day when it suits. )

Play your part without worrying endlessly about what will come, let go of the expectations and the results (really helps imo.) Rest your 'shoulders' because there is no need for you to carry the whole planet on your own. Enjoy your life in whatever way 'floats your boat'. Peace!
"All lies and jest still, a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1530 on: July 20, 2018, 08:03:33 AM »
Mornin'. I'll second that, AsiLurker.

My last post above was only from one thread, this one, except the Kevin quotes. Ignore our leaders, forget Trump, forget Elon, forget all of those dinosaur "one man fix it all guys", I don't need them or their money to mitigate, neither does anyone else.

This is about everday people changing their society. Look at the cave rescue, look at small farmers, look at everday people; they are changing. Fast enough? I don''t know but that's why I liked the first quote by Kevin above:
Leadership occurs when the singular becomes collective. It's a system property that cant be understood soley in terms of individual behaviour. You're part of a movement that is catalysing system leadership whilst highlighting the falsehood of those discrediting individual action.

Why will dinosaurs have to change? A few recent snippets.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/17/climate/india-heat-wave-summer.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-19/how-fear-fuelled-diy-power-boom/10009872
https://www.nrc.no/news/2018/july/alarming-lack-of-funding-claims-lives/
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05708-7

The following are in Swedish about a farmer here, Adam Arnesson, changing towards more resilient crops and animals. He will be successful with this approach.
http://www.sverigesnatur.org/intervju/ekobonden-som-bryter-ny-mark/
Also adding a recent video although it's in Swedish...

More on the Swedish drought, here's a good one:
https://twitter.com/JKuylenstierna/status/1019709311767994368
Costs of supporting Sweden's farmers ~10 billion. SEB's quarterly profit ~10 billion.
Tada! :)

News around climate related issues are more or less boiling, our leaders must change.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.

vigilius

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1531 on: July 20, 2018, 08:43:39 AM »
Going back up a bit to the Solar Radiation Management thing?

Maybe I should stay in stupid questions department, but....
sulfate aerosols? In addition to everything else, isn't that what was causing acid rain? Didn't we just go to a lot of trouble to get rid of sulfate aerosols from coal-fired electrical generating facilities? Now we're going to put them up on purpose? (sighs)

OTOH I really did like the guy in the tape, he may be right for all I know.....

Anyway, someone please tell me if I am right/wrong about this one little point.

Lurk

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1532 on: July 20, 2018, 08:44:35 AM »
Excellent! I will contribute in kind

Resilient Soils. Healthy Climate.
https://www.soilcquest.org.au

Blain Hjertaas - Regenerative Livestock Farming and Soil Carbon Sequestration


I have a nephew-in-law in Uppsala a PhD graduate. I managed to get a email forwarded to him to please find Kevin Anderson while he is still there doing his tenure and give him a HUGE HUG from me - as I have long admired him in ways far beyond his contribution to climate science rigor. A great accomplishment for an Engineer I think. Most Engineers are quite dowdy boring stick in the mud folks more like Accountants - but Kevin is truly 'alive and switched on'.

If Climate Change Science was a religion then Sri Kevin would be my Guru - because he speaks from the Head and the Heart simultaneously. That's a 'true expert' imv.  :)
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 08:51:03 AM by Lurk »
"All lies and jest still, a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."
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Lurk

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1533 on: July 20, 2018, 08:48:14 AM »
Going back up a bit to the Solar Radiation Management thing?

Maybe I should stay in stupid questions department, but....
sulfate aerosols? In addition to everything else, isn't that what was causing acid rain? Didn't we just go to a lot of trouble to get rid of sulfate aerosols from coal-fired electrical generating facilities? Now we're going to put them up on purpose? (sighs)

OTOH I really did like the guy in the tape, he may be right for all I know.....

Anyway, someone please tell me if I am right/wrong about this one little point.

Not a stupid question .... you just did a double take and said 'WTF?'

You are 100% right about that. Yep the same stuff. You got it.
"All lies and jest still, a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."
The Boxer by Simon & Garfunkel

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1534 on: July 20, 2018, 09:27:12 AM »
Throw in a hug from me too, Lurk.
When it comes to science in general, one really do want to listen to many, not the individual scientist. What Kevin does so well, is filling the gap between science and people in a harsh but still careful and respectful way.

Re: SRM, the really crazy part is that people are discussing this for real, like Kevin Lister above.

How are you going to mitigate today? Imagine if we (top 10%) all did something? Just a tiny little bit less or different every day, multiply by ~760 million. That is powerful.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1535 on: July 20, 2018, 10:01:39 AM »
Mornin'. I'll second that, AsiLurker.

My last post above was only from one thread, this one, except the Kevin quotes. Ignore our leaders, forget Trump, forget Elon, forget all of those dinosaur "one man fix it all guys", I don't need them or their money to mitigate, neither does anyone else.

This is about everday people changing their society. Look at the cave rescue, look at small farmers, look at everday people; they are changing. Fast enough? I don''t know but that's why I liked the first quote by Kevin above:
Leadership occurs when the singular becomes collective. It's a system property that cant be understood soley in terms of individual behaviour. You're part of a movement that is catalysing system leadership whilst highlighting the falsehood of those discrediting individual action.

Why will dinosaurs have to change? A few recent snippets.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/17/climate/india-heat-wave-summer.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-19/how-fear-fuelled-diy-power-boom/10009872
https://www.nrc.no/news/2018/july/alarming-lack-of-funding-claims-lives/
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05708-7

The following are in Swedish about a farmer here, Adam Arnesson, changing towards more resilient crops and animals. He will be successful with this approach.
http://www.sverigesnatur.org/intervju/ekobonden-som-bryter-ny-mark/
Also adding a recent video although it's in Swedish...

More on the Swedish drought, here's a good one:
https://twitter.com/JKuylenstierna/status/1019709311767994368
Costs of supporting Sweden's farmers ~10 billion. SEB's quarterly profit ~10 billion.
Tada! :)

News around climate related issues are more or less boiling, our leaders must change.
Sweden may be getting a change in leaders ?

The far-right Sweden Democrats are riding high in the polls, they are certainly influencing policy of other parties.
Here is a snippet from their manifesto:-

Quote
energy policy

In order for Sweden to maintain high international competitiveness and living standards, we want to pursue an energy policy that ensures affordable and reliable energy supply for both households and businesses while meeting high demands for environmental friendliness. We need nuclear power to not become addicted to dirty, European coal power or Russian gas. Alternative energy sources such as wind power and solar power can not in the near future constitute more than complement to nuclear and hydroelectric power.

At least they are not doing a Trump on climate.  So one could say that at least one populist party in Europe has got the message on climate, even if their other policies are revolting.

Leaders must change, but will they?
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1536 on: July 20, 2018, 10:26:40 AM »
No, they are doing a Trump, cloaked in Swedish manners.
https://www.naturskyddsforeningen.se/val2018/sa-mycket-lovar-partierna-for-miljon
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1537 on: July 20, 2018, 11:00:34 AM »
No, they are doing a Trump, cloaked in Swedish manners.
https://www.naturskyddsforeningen.se/val2018/sa-mycket-lovar-partierna-for-miljon

Translation from your link-

Quote
Prior to the 2018 election we have put together 18 sharp proposals for a more ambitious environmental policy,

The Swedish Democrats  come with a big margin last in the ranking as they only support two of 18 proposals. In our 2014 survey, the party did not support a single proposal. Sweden Democrats are the party in the Riksdag that has the absolute least environmental ambitions. If the party receives increased influence in the Riksdag this autumn, as many studies point out, there is a great risk that the possibilities of pursuing an offensive environmental policy are significantly limited.

Bastards. Or should one say that maths says 2 divided by Zero is infinitely greater.
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Lurk

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1538 on: July 20, 2018, 11:27:00 AM »
This is about everday people changing their society.

Here's another example Sleepy - note @ 4 mins "nature wisdom"

Disruptive Innovation Festival - DIF
Published on 7 Dec 2015
Leontino Balbo Jr has developed an approach to organic sugar cane production with the potential to disrupt the whole agricultural sector itself.

In 1986, Leontino began experimenting with "ecosystems revitalising agriculture", a new approach that he believed could increase crop yields, reduce pest numbers and restore natural capital, all while reducing reliance on natural resources.

29 years later, Leontino’s sugar cane farm, based in Sao Paulo, Brazil, has enjoyed unprecedented success with his work becoming a paragon of regenerative agriculture. A hypothesis has transformed into measurable results, with Leontino claiming to be able to produce higher yields, while not raising production costs, using only one third of the resources and providing a swathe of environmental benefits.

"All lies and jest still, a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1539 on: July 20, 2018, 11:33:14 AM »
@gerontocrat; they are lying bastards. Read this if you wish.
https://miljo-utveckling.se/inget-tyder-pa-att-vi-nar-parismalen/

Zero leadership, only advocating passivity and negativity, consider Kevin Andersons quotes above.

@Lurk; thanks, that one looks familiar but I'll have to watch it later, my old lady is getting annoyed about me sitting here typing.  ;D
Gotta go...
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vigilius

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1540 on: July 20, 2018, 06:07:29 PM »
Many thanks and WTF WTF WTF WTF WTF WTF

Not a stupid question .... you just did a double take and said 'WTF?'

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1541 on: July 22, 2018, 04:00:16 PM »
In the first quarter of 2018 China's energy usage jumped, and CO2 emissions increased by 4% y-o-y. They are on track for an even higher increase in CO2 emissions for all of 2018 - so much for the peaking of emissions. Their Paris commitment was to peak by 2030.

https://www.ft.com/content/98839504-6334-11e8-90c2-9563a0613e56

Covered very well on Radio Ecoshock, by the head of the Global Carbon Project.

https://www.ecoshock.org/2018/06/carbon-climate-showdown.html

This is the problem with rapid growth of the Chinese sort (and India, Indonesia etc.), energy efficiency plus new renewables installs just cannot provide all of the incremental new energy required. China is also reducing its support for new renewable projects, which has led to a significant reduction in solar growth forecasts this year. Unless Chinese growth slows significantly this can only mean continued increases in carbon emissions.

https://renewablesnow.com/news/gtm-cuts-by-40-2018-solar-forecast-for-china-615667/

Much more aggressive action is required from the already rich countries, but with the US out of the game (and also the largest province in Canada with the new right wing government), and the rest not pushing very hard, we wont be peaking anytime soon.








Sebastian Jones

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1542 on: July 22, 2018, 07:05:44 PM »
Unless Chinese growth slows significantly this can only mean continued increases in carbon emissions.


Certainly Chinese growth is a problem, but so too are policies in most countries that  have unending economic growth as their main goal. Canada for example has "growth" at the core of its climate strategy....While we persist in the delusion that we can grow our way out of increased impact, emissions and environmental degradation grow in harmony.....

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1543 on: July 22, 2018, 10:17:38 PM »
....While we persist in the delusion that we can grow our way out of increased impact, emissions and environmental degradation grow in harmony.....

And it is an increasingly unpleasant and loud harmony - to which the world seems to be shutting its ears.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1544 on: July 22, 2018, 10:22:57 PM »
Certainly Chinese growth is a problem, but so too are policies in most countries that  have unending economic growth as their main goal. Canada for example has "growth" at the core of its climate strategy....While we persist in the delusion that we can grow our way out of increased impact, emissions and environmental degradation grow in harmony.....

Could not agree more, the fixation on growth for the already rich countries is ridiculous. With only a slightly fairer sharing of the wealth, countries such as Canada could have everyone living very well. Canada could also stop the ridiculously high rates of immigration, which is removing the country's biophysical surplus while at the same time reducing the quality of life - especially in the Toronto area.

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1545 on: July 23, 2018, 06:29:09 AM »
"an increasingly unpleasant and loud harmony"

cacophony ?

sidd

silkman

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1546 on: July 23, 2018, 09:32:27 AM »
Quote
Earth Overshoot Day falls on 1 August this year - marking the point at which consumption exceeds the capacity of nature to regenerate

..... and this is the result:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/23/earths-resources-consumed-in-ever-greater-destructive-volumes

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1547 on: July 24, 2018, 06:20:21 PM »
FIXING SEXISM AT THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
A sexist remark at a recent meeting prompted some soul-searching among the world's top climate scientists. How can they prevent women's expertise from being excluded?
Quote
In one instance, Friederike Otto, an associate professor at Oxford University specializing in extreme weather events, was being introduced to a group of men. She'd said her name and where she was from—she was wearing her lead author badge—when one of her interlocutors asked who her supervisor was, implying that she must still be a graduate student. In fact, she's deputy director of Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute.
https://psmag.com/environment/fixing-sexism-at-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1548 on: August 02, 2018, 05:31:35 PM »

The linked reference estimates that the 1.5C carbon budget should be reduced by about five years from previous consensus estimates:

Edward Comyn-Platt  et al. (2018), "Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks", Nature Geoscience, volume 11, pages568–573, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0174-9

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0174-9

Extract: "Global methane emissions from natural wetlands and carbon release from permafrost thaw have a positive feedback on climate, yet are not represented in most state-of-the-art climate models. Furthermore, a fraction of the thawed permafrost carbon is released as methane, enhancing the combined feedback strength."

See also:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/permafrost-wetland-emissions-cut-budget-5-years.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1549 on: August 06, 2018, 01:50:03 PM »
Walmart became one of the earliest companies to buy clean energy -- and showed it can save money.

Walmart's Zeal for Green Power Meets a Coal-Loving President
Quote
So far, there’s no sign Trump policies have led companies from Amazon.com Inc. to Alphabet Inc.’s Google to pull back on green energy. Corporate purchases of wind and solar have already topped last year’s record. And Walmart, while not mentioning Trump, said in a statement last week that its “sustainability efforts are going to continue as planned.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-08-06/walmart-s-zeal-for-green-power-meets-a-coal-loving-president
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.