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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1500 on: July 11, 2018, 07:45:04 PM »
At least half of products and services to be low carbon in ten years, say majority of businesses with Paris-aligned climate commitments
- 1 in 5 executives with science-based emissions reduction goals expect 100% of their company’s products and services to be low carbon by 2028;
- Environment seen as the second biggest factor influencing business growth in the next five years;
- Bottom line savings for nearly a third of companies as a result of ambitious emissions cutting goals.
Quote
(10 July 2018): A new YouGov survey of global corporations in the Science Based Targets initiative has found that more than half of executives (52%) expect at least 50% of their products and services to be low carbon by 2028.[1] Of these, nearly 1 in 5 (19%) predict close to 100% will be low carbon in ten years’ time.

The companies surveyed have already set, or committed to set, science-based targets to cut their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in line with the rates required to keep global warming below 2°C. ...
https://sciencebasedtargets.org/2018/07/10/at-least-half-of-products-and-services-to-be-low-carbon-in-ten-years-say-majority-of-businesses-with-paris-aligned-climate-commitments/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1501 on: July 11, 2018, 08:53:52 PM »
Big Breaking News: California reports it's greenhouse gas emissions target of 2020 was reached by the end of 2016, four years early.

Quote
In a major win for California’s fight against global warming, the state appears to have hit its first target for cutting greenhouse gases — and it reached the goal four years early.

Data released by the California Air Resource Board on Wednesday show that the state’s greenhouse gas emissions dropped 2.7 percent in 2016 — the latest year available — to 429.4 million metric tonnes.

That’s slightly better than the 431 million metric tonnes the state produced in 1990. And California law requires that the state’s emissions, which peaked in 2004, return to 1990 levels by 2020.

Since the peak, emissions have dropped 13 percent. And they have continued falling in recent years even as the state’s economy surged.

California is not done. State law also mandates that emissions drop another 40 percent by 2030. And while analysts were confident the state would hit its 2020 target, they aren’t as certain about 2030.

“In California we see the impacts of climate change all around us, but our efforts to curb its worst impacts are on track,” said Mary Nichols, chairwoman of the Air Resources Board.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/amp/California-hits-2020-greenhouse-gas-reduction-13066821.php
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1502 on: July 12, 2018, 01:47:14 PM »
Californian Emissions

At 429 million tonnes CO2e, that's 10.86 tonnes per Californian. I would have assumed much worse.

Is there a catch? Are these just production emissions not consumption emissions?

I'm pleased to report the UK Committee on Climate Change is getting more open about this issue.



Where was the steel made for all those cars in California?
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1503 on: July 12, 2018, 03:37:30 PM »
HADCRUT4 and the Paris agreement

There is an interesting article on Carbon Brief  Permafrost and wetland emissions could cut 1.5C carbon budget ‘by five years' describing a paper in Nature Geoscience

This work is, of course, very welcome. Getting a better grip of the size of some of the feedbacks missing from the CMIP5 models will (or should) be important to policy makers.

However, I note they use the HadCRUT4 temperature measure, which ignores the Arctic with its faster rising temperatures. HADCRUT4 is also a mix of sea surface temperature and temperatures measured a metre or so above the land surface. Land temperatures are rising significantly faster.

HADCRUT4 does not include the temperature of the oceans below the surface. This is the main driver for sea level rise.

So this paper does not easily translate to an estimate of the full nasty effects of raised temperatures on land or - something that was important in the Paris agreement- the drowning of the Maldives.
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Bruce Steele

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1504 on: July 12, 2018, 06:06:38 PM »
Geoff,  I think the Calif Air Resourses Board is proud of their new report , where we are as a measure of where we need to go.
I haven't gone into the report but the first two circle charts are interesting. We have good hydro resources and there are thousands
of acres of solar already installed. The report does include the CO2 emissions of imported electricity. Metal for imported cars? I don't know.


https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htm

jacksmith4tx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1505 on: July 12, 2018, 07:21:02 PM »
As Americans Experienced the Warmest May on Record Their Acceptance of Global Warming Reaches a New High
http://closup.umich.edu/files/ieep-nsee-2018-spring-climate-belief.pdf
Key Findings:
1. More Americans think that there is solid evidence of global warming than at anytime since 2008 with 73% maintaining this view in the latest version of the NSEE conducted in late April and May of 2018.
2. A record 60% of Americans now think that global warming is happening and that humans are at least partially responsible for the rising temperatures.
3. While half of Republicans think that there is solid evidence of global warming, the divide between the 90% of Democrats that hold this view and the 50% of Republicans that maintain this position is as large as anytime since 2008.
4. The divide between Democrats and Republicans on the existence of anthropogenic induced global warming is also at record levels with 78% of Democrats now holding the view that humans are at least partially responsible for warming on the planet compared to only 35% of Republicans.

It seems to me the litmus test of if you are a Republican is if you reject global warming, full stop. As a corollary, the more you heat the brains of right wingers the less they believe the science.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1506 on: July 15, 2018, 07:49:33 AM »
Californian Emissions

At 429 million tonnes CO2e, that's 10.86 tonnes per Californian. I would have assumed much worse.

Is there a catch? Are these just production emissions not consumption emissions?

...

Where was the steel made for all those cars in California?
Via Sig's link(s):

A Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Inventory of San Francisco Bay Area Neighborhoods.
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2sn7m83z
Fig1 attached.

A recent study; Carbon footprints of 13 000 cities:
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aac72a/meta
http://citycarbonfootprints.info/
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1507 on: July 15, 2018, 08:25:03 AM »
Hmm, guess football didn't come home but England triumphs in Carbon World Cup?
https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/2730533/England%20triumph%20in%20Carbon%20World%20Cup%20.pdf
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1508 on: July 15, 2018, 10:41:06 AM »
Article by Oliver Geden, in German.
https://www.klimafakten.de/meldung/15-grad-limit-der-machbarkeits-pokal-gehoert-die-vitrine
Link to the comment in Nature it's based on (in English) at the bottom.
https://rdcu.be/0TiG
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1509 on: July 15, 2018, 09:43:16 PM »
Sleepy

Just found your very helpful answer

Thanks


A Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Inventory of San Francisco Bay Area Neighborhoods has

Quote
The carbon footprint of the average S.F. Bay Area household (Figure 1) is 44.3 metric tons of CO2  equivalent gases per year (16.3 tons tCO2e per person). This compares to about 50 metric tons for the average U.S. household.
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1510 on: July 16, 2018, 10:05:51 AM »
Just trying to connect the dots GB. Speaking of which:
Anyone who has access to the article mentioned here in LAtimes by Leah Stokes?
https://twitter.com/leahstokes/status/1018509457058344961
I just got this:
Quote
Unfortunately, our website is currently unavailable in most European countries. We are engaged on the issue and committed to looking at options that support our full range of digital offerings to the EU market. We continue to identify technical compliance solutions that will provide all readers with our award-winning journalism.
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1511 on: July 17, 2018, 04:16:19 PM »
The Sustainable Development Goals are slipping out of reach.
The world isn’t making progress on the UN’s 17 benchmarks for a more just and environmentally sound society–and the U.S. has abdicated leadership.
https://www.fastcompany.com/90200488/the-sustainable-development-goals-are-slipping-out-of-reach

Quote
In 2018, data on how countries are approaching these goals paints a pretty grim picture.

For the first time, the SDSN was able to aggregate enough present and historical data to determine trends in how countries are grappling with each one of the SDGs. While countries like Sweden, Denmark, and Finland top the list with scores in the 80s (as they generally do each year, along with global happiness rankings–a correlation that SDSN Director Jeffrey Sachs thinks is not without meaning), trends in the data show that they need to significantly accelerate progress if they’re going to achieve the targets for climate action and sustainable consumption and production by 2030. In other words, even countries that are doing well, are not doing well fast enough.

And then there’s the United States. Its score of 73 is not terrible, but it also shows some troubling trends. “While the U.S. is doing well if you look at the economy, we’re quite bad on social fairness and environmental sustainability,” Sachs says. “Trump is pointing us in an absolutely devastating direction because his whole policy mindset is even less fairness, more benefits for the rich, and an outright war on the environment. He basically represents short-term greed.”

But it would be a mistake, Sachs adds, to blame the U.S.’s poor performance on the SDGs on Trump. “The U.S. has been off-track for a long time,” Sachs says. For the past 30 or so years, he adds, the country has been operating under a political system that appeases corporations–many of them extractive fossil-fuel companies–over individuals. Compared to the Scandinavian countries at the top of the SDG rankings, the U.S.’s protections for vulnerable residents and the environment are all but nonexistent. In 1997, the country had an opportunity to implement the Kyoto Protocol, an earlier attempt to limit carbon emissions and keep climate change in check, but then-President Bill Clinton never passed the legislation onto Congress, knowing that the conservative Senate would refuse to approve it. Obama, while he signed onto the Paris Accord, faced stonewalling from his conservative Congress in passing many more progressive environmental and social protections.
My bold.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1512 on: July 17, 2018, 04:39:29 PM »
Article by Oliver Geden, in German.
https://www.klimafakten.de/meldung/15-grad-limit-der-machbarkeits-pokal-gehoert-die-vitrine

Open the link with chrome, highlight the text, and it will ask you if you want to translate. Not bad.

Quote
1.5 degree limit: The "Feasibility Cup" belongs in the showcase
Climate policy likes to set lofty goals, but does not act accordingly. Climatologists and policy advisers should therefore present the facts in a way that makes it harder for politicians to avoid the practical consequences of the climate change that they accept. A guest post by Oliver Geden

Climate policy likes to set lofty goals, but does not act accordingly. beginning, middle, and end of story.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1513 on: July 18, 2018, 09:18:39 PM »
Palau is in the middle of a new experiment: Over the next year and a half, the country will shift to 100% renewable energy, at no cost to the government, in what is likely to be the fastest national transition to renewable energy ever to occur.

This island nation is making the fastest-ever shift to renewables
The island nation of Palau plans to stop buying diesel and go 100% solar by the end of 2019–and offer a blueprint for other island nations to do the same.
https://amp.fastcompany.com/90203041/this-island-nation-is-making-the-fastest-ever-shift-to-renewables

Cross post from Renewables thread.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1514 on: July 19, 2018, 03:39:15 AM »
Palau: population 21,503

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1515 on: July 19, 2018, 09:36:38 AM »
Palau? What about the average American Tanker Truck?
It must be empty, this is from 2012.

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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1516 on: July 19, 2018, 10:02:00 AM »
Kevin-Quotes of the day:

Leadership occurs when the singular becomes collective. It's a system property that cant be understood soley in terms of individual behaviour. You're part of a movement that is catalysing system leadership whilst highlighting the falsehood of those discrediting individual action.

Many dangerous religions hide behind a veil of Empiricism; Cost-benefit analysis & Integrated Assessment models are two religions regularly held up as 'objective'. We cannot escape 'morality' & believing we can is itself a religion. Better that we open up our morals for critique.

Edit; since I do not wish to contribute to fake news on this forum I should point out that both are Kevin Anderson tweets and that the first quote is from the 16th and the second from yesterday.  :)
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1517 on: July 19, 2018, 12:59:53 PM »

Edit; since I do not wish to contribute to fake news on this forum I should point out that both are Kevin Anderson tweets and that the first quote is from the 16th and the second from yesterday.  :)

So which Kevin Andersen is tweeting this stuff?
Presumably not this one:-
Quote
Kevin Andersen | Parsons Accounting & Tax Services
www.parsonsaccounting.com/team/kevin-t-andersen
Kevin enjoys providing personalized tax and accounting services to individuals and small businesses. He currently runs his own CPA firm located in Half Moon ...

or this one ?:-

Quote
Kevin Andersen wins $100,000 August grand prize - ESPN Streak
streak.espn.com/en/story?pageName=streak\augustwinner10
Andersen's W25 was good for $100k in August '10. Kevin Andersen of Memphis, Tenn., recorded a 25-game win streak to capture the $100,000 Streak for the ...

or this one?:-

Quote
WIMBLEDON 2018: Roger Federer knocked out by Kevin Andersen in ...
https://www.republicworld.com/.../wimbledon-2018-roger-federer-knocked-out-by-k...
11 Jul 2018 - Roger Federer will have to wait to win his 21st Grand Slam and ninth Wimbledon title after he was defeated.

And why are the tweets of such moment ?
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oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1518 on: July 19, 2018, 03:03:33 PM »
So which Kevin Andersen is tweeting this stuff?
And why are the tweets of such moment ?
I can only answer your first question, but it's Kevin AndersOn as Sleepy mentioned, and I believe it's this guy https://twitter.com/KevinClimate
Quote
Professor of energy and climate change - interested in translating the science of climate change into carbon budgets, policy goals and mitigation options.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1519 on: July 19, 2018, 03:58:33 PM »
Do you think Climate "Kevin from Manchester" Anderson has been mentioned too many times in this thread? Starts in 2014 at #6 by wili and then a gazillion times more, especially in the last several pages.

The second quote is Kevin's reply to Caldeira, which might be useful to read as well:
https://twitter.com/KevinClimate/status/1019506619326128128
This is more or less where discussions on this forum has been hovering for years.
My personal take on this hasn't changed at all.
Maybe they are just trying to be positive.
But maintaining a positive attitude, while beeing lazy, will fail. It doesn't matter if you want to be successful in marathon, or be successful in mitigation.

Which was a reply to this:
OrganicSu, I haven't seen that article but it refers to the same study as I posted above, but with a complimentary share in the article, thanks! I'll save that projection...

Considering all of those deniers who only read headlines, that headline is really bad.

Love the non-mention of upward revisions in the previous two years (1.1% to 1.7% in 2013 and 0.0 to 0.6% in 2014) and the massive (13%!) uncertainty in Chinese emissions -- also note massive consumption drop to 2-3%/a over the last year. Decoupling my ass.


Seriously, are people willing to accept this stuff at face value even after multiple massive upward revisions in Chinese emissions over the past few years (including the recent one)?

Slowing I can buy -- after all, there was a period of outright contraction in industrial output earlier this year. But the claims of a huge change in decarbonization and decoupling are extremely premature -- if not outright farcical, just like the 1.5C "target" being thrown around right now. We'll only know a few years from now.

In the meantime, Mauna Loa is a better gauge after ENSO adjustment.

Now we know, which is also why I found these quotes by Kevin Anderson of such moment and I think this is pivotal for our collective mitigation efforts.

Our Seneca ship,


 is sailing into this:
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1520 on: July 19, 2018, 07:56:23 PM »
Too many threads for my tired brain.

So Kevin Anderson knows his stuff, and a deep thinker as well. Trouble is, those who presume to govern us are not listening. I posted this on the renewable energy thread (yesterday I think).

I am a member of the English Green Party - but even they seem to be distracted by social justice issues, the environment lost in all the surrounding media noise.

What to do (while this old man still can) ?

Quote
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2952 on: Today at 10:49:35 AM »
QuoteModifyRemove
Things are going a bit wrong.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/17/iea-warns-of-worrying-trend-as-global-investment-in-renewables-falls


The world’s energy watchdog has sounded the alarm over a “worrying” pause in the shift to clean energy after global investment in  fell 7% to $318bn (£240bn) last year.

The International Energy Agency said the decline is set to continue into 2018, threatening energy security, climate change and air pollution goals.

Fossil fuels increased their share of energy supply investment for the first time since 2014, to $790bn, and will play a significant role for years on current trends, the IEA said.

Investment in coal power dropped sharply but was offset by an uptick in oil and gas spending, the World Energy Investment report found.
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1521 on: July 20, 2018, 08:03:33 AM »
Mornin'. I'll second that, AsiLurker.

My last post above was only from one thread, this one, except the Kevin quotes. Ignore our leaders, forget Trump, forget Elon, forget all of those dinosaur "one man fix it all guys", I don't need them or their money to mitigate, neither does anyone else.

This is about everday people changing their society. Look at the cave rescue, look at small farmers, look at everday people; they are changing. Fast enough? I don''t know but that's why I liked the first quote by Kevin above:
Leadership occurs when the singular becomes collective. It's a system property that cant be understood soley in terms of individual behaviour. You're part of a movement that is catalysing system leadership whilst highlighting the falsehood of those discrediting individual action.

Why will dinosaurs have to change? A few recent snippets.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/17/climate/india-heat-wave-summer.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-19/how-fear-fuelled-diy-power-boom/10009872
https://www.nrc.no/news/2018/july/alarming-lack-of-funding-claims-lives/
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05708-7

The following are in Swedish about a farmer here, Adam Arnesson, changing towards more resilient crops and animals. He will be successful with this approach.
http://www.sverigesnatur.org/intervju/ekobonden-som-bryter-ny-mark/
Also adding a recent video although it's in Swedish...

More on the Swedish drought, here's a good one:
https://twitter.com/JKuylenstierna/status/1019709311767994368
Costs of supporting Sweden's farmers ~10 billion. SEB's quarterly profit ~10 billion.
Tada! :)

News around climate related issues are more or less boiling, our leaders must change.
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vigilius

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1522 on: July 20, 2018, 08:43:39 AM »
Going back up a bit to the Solar Radiation Management thing?

Maybe I should stay in stupid questions department, but....
sulfate aerosols? In addition to everything else, isn't that what was causing acid rain? Didn't we just go to a lot of trouble to get rid of sulfate aerosols from coal-fired electrical generating facilities? Now we're going to put them up on purpose? (sighs)

OTOH I really did like the guy in the tape, he may be right for all I know.....

Anyway, someone please tell me if I am right/wrong about this one little point.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1523 on: July 20, 2018, 09:27:12 AM »
Throw in a hug from me too, Lurk.
When it comes to science in general, one really do want to listen to many, not the individual scientist. What Kevin does so well, is filling the gap between science and people in a harsh but still careful and respectful way.

Re: SRM, the really crazy part is that people are discussing this for real, like Kevin Lister above.

How are you going to mitigate today? Imagine if we (top 10%) all did something? Just a tiny little bit less or different every day, multiply by ~760 million. That is powerful.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1524 on: July 20, 2018, 10:01:39 AM »
Mornin'. I'll second that, AsiLurker.

My last post above was only from one thread, this one, except the Kevin quotes. Ignore our leaders, forget Trump, forget Elon, forget all of those dinosaur "one man fix it all guys", I don't need them or their money to mitigate, neither does anyone else.

This is about everday people changing their society. Look at the cave rescue, look at small farmers, look at everday people; they are changing. Fast enough? I don''t know but that's why I liked the first quote by Kevin above:
Leadership occurs when the singular becomes collective. It's a system property that cant be understood soley in terms of individual behaviour. You're part of a movement that is catalysing system leadership whilst highlighting the falsehood of those discrediting individual action.

Why will dinosaurs have to change? A few recent snippets.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/17/climate/india-heat-wave-summer.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-19/how-fear-fuelled-diy-power-boom/10009872
https://www.nrc.no/news/2018/july/alarming-lack-of-funding-claims-lives/
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05708-7

The following are in Swedish about a farmer here, Adam Arnesson, changing towards more resilient crops and animals. He will be successful with this approach.
http://www.sverigesnatur.org/intervju/ekobonden-som-bryter-ny-mark/
Also adding a recent video although it's in Swedish...

More on the Swedish drought, here's a good one:
https://twitter.com/JKuylenstierna/status/1019709311767994368
Costs of supporting Sweden's farmers ~10 billion. SEB's quarterly profit ~10 billion.
Tada! :)

News around climate related issues are more or less boiling, our leaders must change.
Sweden may be getting a change in leaders ?

The far-right Sweden Democrats are riding high in the polls, they are certainly influencing policy of other parties.
Here is a snippet from their manifesto:-

Quote
energy policy

In order for Sweden to maintain high international competitiveness and living standards, we want to pursue an energy policy that ensures affordable and reliable energy supply for both households and businesses while meeting high demands for environmental friendliness. We need nuclear power to not become addicted to dirty, European coal power or Russian gas. Alternative energy sources such as wind power and solar power can not in the near future constitute more than complement to nuclear and hydroelectric power.

At least they are not doing a Trump on climate.  So one could say that at least one populist party in Europe has got the message on climate, even if their other policies are revolting.

Leaders must change, but will they?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1525 on: July 20, 2018, 10:26:40 AM »
No, they are doing a Trump, cloaked in Swedish manners.
https://www.naturskyddsforeningen.se/val2018/sa-mycket-lovar-partierna-for-miljon
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1526 on: July 20, 2018, 11:00:34 AM »
No, they are doing a Trump, cloaked in Swedish manners.
https://www.naturskyddsforeningen.se/val2018/sa-mycket-lovar-partierna-for-miljon

Translation from your link-

Quote
Prior to the 2018 election we have put together 18 sharp proposals for a more ambitious environmental policy,

The Swedish Democrats  come with a big margin last in the ranking as they only support two of 18 proposals. In our 2014 survey, the party did not support a single proposal. Sweden Democrats are the party in the Riksdag that has the absolute least environmental ambitions. If the party receives increased influence in the Riksdag this autumn, as many studies point out, there is a great risk that the possibilities of pursuing an offensive environmental policy are significantly limited.

Bastards. Or should one say that maths says 2 divided by Zero is infinitely greater.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1527 on: July 20, 2018, 11:33:14 AM »
@gerontocrat; they are lying bastards. Read this if you wish.
https://miljo-utveckling.se/inget-tyder-pa-att-vi-nar-parismalen/

Zero leadership, only advocating passivity and negativity, consider Kevin Andersons quotes above.

@Lurk; thanks, that one looks familiar but I'll have to watch it later, my old lady is getting annoyed about me sitting here typing.  ;D
Gotta go...
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vigilius

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1528 on: July 20, 2018, 06:07:29 PM »
Many thanks and WTF WTF WTF WTF WTF WTF

Not a stupid question .... you just did a double take and said 'WTF?'

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1529 on: July 22, 2018, 04:00:16 PM »
In the first quarter of 2018 China's energy usage jumped, and CO2 emissions increased by 4% y-o-y. They are on track for an even higher increase in CO2 emissions for all of 2018 - so much for the peaking of emissions. Their Paris commitment was to peak by 2030.

https://www.ft.com/content/98839504-6334-11e8-90c2-9563a0613e56

Covered very well on Radio Ecoshock, by the head of the Global Carbon Project.

https://www.ecoshock.org/2018/06/carbon-climate-showdown.html

This is the problem with rapid growth of the Chinese sort (and India, Indonesia etc.), energy efficiency plus new renewables installs just cannot provide all of the incremental new energy required. China is also reducing its support for new renewable projects, which has led to a significant reduction in solar growth forecasts this year. Unless Chinese growth slows significantly this can only mean continued increases in carbon emissions.

https://renewablesnow.com/news/gtm-cuts-by-40-2018-solar-forecast-for-china-615667/

Much more aggressive action is required from the already rich countries, but with the US out of the game (and also the largest province in Canada with the new right wing government), and the rest not pushing very hard, we wont be peaking anytime soon.








Sebastian Jones

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1530 on: July 22, 2018, 07:05:44 PM »
Unless Chinese growth slows significantly this can only mean continued increases in carbon emissions.


Certainly Chinese growth is a problem, but so too are policies in most countries that  have unending economic growth as their main goal. Canada for example has "growth" at the core of its climate strategy....While we persist in the delusion that we can grow our way out of increased impact, emissions and environmental degradation grow in harmony.....

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1531 on: July 22, 2018, 10:17:38 PM »
....While we persist in the delusion that we can grow our way out of increased impact, emissions and environmental degradation grow in harmony.....

And it is an increasingly unpleasant and loud harmony - to which the world seems to be shutting its ears.
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1532 on: July 22, 2018, 10:22:57 PM »
Certainly Chinese growth is a problem, but so too are policies in most countries that  have unending economic growth as their main goal. Canada for example has "growth" at the core of its climate strategy....While we persist in the delusion that we can grow our way out of increased impact, emissions and environmental degradation grow in harmony.....

Could not agree more, the fixation on growth for the already rich countries is ridiculous. With only a slightly fairer sharing of the wealth, countries such as Canada could have everyone living very well. Canada could also stop the ridiculously high rates of immigration, which is removing the country's biophysical surplus while at the same time reducing the quality of life - especially in the Toronto area.

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1533 on: July 23, 2018, 06:29:09 AM »
"an increasingly unpleasant and loud harmony"

cacophony ?

sidd

silkman

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1534 on: July 23, 2018, 09:32:27 AM »
Quote
Earth Overshoot Day falls on 1 August this year - marking the point at which consumption exceeds the capacity of nature to regenerate

..... and this is the result:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/23/earths-resources-consumed-in-ever-greater-destructive-volumes

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1535 on: July 24, 2018, 06:20:21 PM »
FIXING SEXISM AT THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
A sexist remark at a recent meeting prompted some soul-searching among the world's top climate scientists. How can they prevent women's expertise from being excluded?
Quote
In one instance, Friederike Otto, an associate professor at Oxford University specializing in extreme weather events, was being introduced to a group of men. She'd said her name and where she was from—she was wearing her lead author badge—when one of her interlocutors asked who her supervisor was, implying that she must still be a graduate student. In fact, she's deputy director of Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute.
https://psmag.com/environment/fixing-sexism-at-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1536 on: August 02, 2018, 05:31:35 PM »

The linked reference estimates that the 1.5C carbon budget should be reduced by about five years from previous consensus estimates:

Edward Comyn-Platt  et al. (2018), "Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks", Nature Geoscience, volume 11, pages568–573, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0174-9

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0174-9

Extract: "Global methane emissions from natural wetlands and carbon release from permafrost thaw have a positive feedback on climate, yet are not represented in most state-of-the-art climate models. Furthermore, a fraction of the thawed permafrost carbon is released as methane, enhancing the combined feedback strength."

See also:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/permafrost-wetland-emissions-cut-budget-5-years.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1537 on: August 06, 2018, 01:50:03 PM »
Walmart became one of the earliest companies to buy clean energy -- and showed it can save money.

Walmart's Zeal for Green Power Meets a Coal-Loving President
Quote
So far, there’s no sign Trump policies have led companies from Amazon.com Inc. to Alphabet Inc.’s Google to pull back on green energy. Corporate purchases of wind and solar have already topped last year’s record. And Walmart, while not mentioning Trump, said in a statement last week that its “sustainability efforts are going to continue as planned.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-08-06/walmart-s-zeal-for-green-power-meets-a-coal-loving-president
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NeilT

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1538 on: August 07, 2018, 12:16:31 AM »
we wont be peaking anytime soon.

in fact if you check the stats, we are accelerating.

Going through that list, every single accord ever signed resulted in more acceleration in real terms.

So much for accords on climate change....
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NeilT

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1539 on: August 07, 2018, 02:31:25 PM »
Just as a point, did the full report on VAG's reason for rigging the emission tests get reported here?

In short the synopsis was:  "VAG would have had to spend too much money for too long a time to make their engines both compliant and competitive, so they cheated instead".

Not quite the Vorsprung Durch Technik that they put on the TV ads.....

Must be a great comfort to PSA to know that the EU internal market mechanisms work so well...
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1540 on: August 14, 2018, 04:32:57 PM »
The study cited in the linked article finds that extensive use of BECCS technology would lead to an increase in carbon in the atmosphere rather than the decrease assumed by many IPCC projections:

Title: "Guest post: Why BECCS might not produce ‘negative’ emissions after all"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-beccs-might-not-produce-negative-emissions-after-all

Extract: "In our new study, published in Nature Communications, my colleagues and I find that expansion of bioenergy in order to meet the 1.5C limit could cause net losses in carbon from the land surface. Instead, we find that protecting and expanding forests could be more effective options for meeting the Paris Agreement."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1541 on: August 15, 2018, 09:43:48 PM »
Out of the frying pan and into the fire:

Title: "Trump’s E.P.A. Is Just Going to Let “Beautiful, Clean” Coal Plants Regulate Themselves"

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/08/trump-epa-just-going-to-let-beautiful-clean-coal-plants-regulate-themselves#~o

Extract: "The administration is about to unveil a plan allowing planet-destroying plants to opt out of following any rules at all."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1542 on: August 16, 2018, 06:05:35 PM »
Airline carbon emissions are the poster child of why modern society remains on a BAU pathway.  The global socio-economic system primarily responds to price pressures, but politicians/regulators do their best to keep prices low in order to stimulate the economy:

Title: "Why our carbon emission policies don't work on air travel"

https://phys.org/news/2018-07-carbon-emission-policies-dont-air.html

Extract: "The cost of air travel has fallen dramatically over the last 25 years."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1543 on: August 19, 2018, 06:37:02 PM »
We have:
- airline emissions increasing exponentially
- coal usage increasing in China/India/Indonesia more than offsetting any cuts in USA/Europe
- increasing usage of fracked natural gas that is just as bad or possibly worse than coal (if we use a more relevant gwp20 or less for methane)
- significant cheating through the use of wood pellets to replace coal, when in fact they may be worse than coal
- continued increases in oil usage driven by the new developing countries' middle classes wanting more mobility and truck-delivered goods (to be offset slightly by electrified vehicles in the next few years)

Which is leading to ongoing increases in emissions, showing the "pause" in global emissions to be a one off rather than a trend change. The next official feedback to policy makes will not be until the 2021/2022 timeframe - through the UN IPCC official report. The creativity that they will need to "square the circle" will be quite extraordinary.

I expect to start hearing more and more about geo-engineering as 2020 approaches, unless we have a major financial crisis that reduces emissions in the short term and distracts everyone from CC. Then we may have to wait another 5-7 years for the powers that be to wake up.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1544 on: August 19, 2018, 07:40:20 PM »
”The fashion industry, including the production of all clothes which people wear, contributes to around 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions due to its long supply chains and energy intensive production.  The industry consumes more energy than the aviation and shipping industry combined.”

UN Helps Fashion Industry Shift to Low Carbon
Quote
UN Climate Change News, 6 August 2018 – With the help of the UN, the world’s USD 2.5 trillion USD fashion industry is shifting to more sustainable business models which can help fight climate change and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
https://unfccc.int/news/un-helps-fashion-industry-shift-to-low-carbon
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1545 on: August 20, 2018, 06:25:30 PM »
Australia has pulled out of the Paris emissions agreements.

“In politics you have to focus on what you can deliver,” Mr Turnbull said on Monday, adding the legislation would not pass parliament if it contained an emissions target. “Cheaper power has always been our number one priority when it comes to energy policy.” he told reporters.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australia-climate-change-malcolm-turnbull-prime-minister-leadership-a8499366.html

I'm not sure this is a formal withdrawal from the Paris accords but that should be next as soon as they can agree on the wording.

Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1546 on: August 28, 2018, 12:45:54 PM »
And now France is found wanting....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/28/french-environment-minister-quits-live-on-radio-with-anti-macron-broadside
French environment minister quits live on radio with anti-Macron broadside
Nicolas Hulot says he is leaving government because president is not doing enough on climate and other environmental goals

Quote
Hulot told French radio that the “mini steps” taken by France and other nations to slow global warming and avert a collapse of biodiversity were totally inadequate. “I don’t want to create the illusion that we’re facing up to it,” he said. “I can’t lie to myself any more,” he added.

When the blah blah has to stop?
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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bluesky

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1547 on: August 28, 2018, 04:41:10 PM »
Nicolas Hulot, the former "envoyé spécial" of the French government in view of the organisation of the Cop 21 in Paris 2015, has resigned as a the Environment Minister in Macron's French government:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/28/french-environment-minister-quits-live-on-radio-with-anti-macron-broadside

"Hulot, who was one of the most popular ministers in government, told French radio the “mini steps” taken by France and other nations to slow global warming and avert a collapse of biodiversity were inadequate. “I don’t want to create the illusion that we’re facing up to it,” he said. “I can’t lie to myself any more.”
Hulot announced his departure after the government said it would relax hunting laws, a measure aimed at boosting Macron’s appeal in rural areas, but seen by environmentalists as caving in to the powerful hunting lobby.
Under the changes, hunting licences would be cheaper and more species could be shot, sparking outrage among campaigners for the protection of birds. Hulot said lobbies had too much power over the French government.
Hulot’s differences with the government had been exposed in recent months. He had been disappointed when the government backtracked on a target to reduce reliance on nuclear power to 50% of the country’s energy mix by 2025.
He had also sought a legal ban on the controversial weedkiller glyphosate but was overruled by the agriculture ministry, which preferred negotiating directly with farmers and industry.
The government was taken by surprise by Hulot’s announcement live on radio. Macron, who was beginning a visit to Denmark, was not informed beforehand."

It was quite obvious that the appointment of Nicolas Hulot in Macron's government was a kind of a "greenwashing" as Macron had never shown real interest in climate change and environmental matters during the 2017 French Presidential election.

Full brodcast interview (in French) this morning when Hulot announced his resignation:

https://www.franceinter.fr/emissions/l-invite-de-8h20-le-grand-entretien/l-invite-de-8h20-le-grand-entretien-28-aout-2018



NeilT

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1548 on: August 28, 2018, 06:47:41 PM »
France has the lowest CO2 per KW/h of any major economy in the developed world.  Exclusively due to France's Nuclear power capability.  Something Nicolas Hulot wanted to reduce by 50%.

Hulot is the kind of "environmentalist" who gives Climate Change a bad name.

The French Nuclear capability is absolutely perfect for EV overnight charging as it takes a lot of time to vary Nuclear power station output.

Hulot is a fanatic who self destructed over hunting laws.  By abandoning his post he walked away from actions on the Paris Accord which will ensure the long term survival of this wildlife he claims to love so much.

This is not the message the climate lobby needs.  It needs pragmatic and "grounded" people who can influence and drive solutions to the CO2 issue.  At this level of Government there is no place for crusading when that crusading will increase CO2 emissions. Germany is living this right now.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2018, 07:01:30 PM by NeilT »
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bluesky

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1549 on: August 28, 2018, 07:35:55 PM »
France has the lowest CO2 per KW/h in the developed world.  Exclusively due to France's Nuclear power capability.  Something Nicolas Hulot wanted to reduce by 50%.

Hulot is the kind of "environmentalist" who gives Climate Change a bad name.

The French Nuclear capability is absolutely perfect for EV overnight charging as it takes a lot of time to vary Nuclear power station output.

It seems that you are not aware that French nuclear powerplants are already beyond there expected life expectancy for many of them, as an example Bugey 5000 Megawatt which was built up in the mid 70ies, very close to Lyon a 1.3 million conurbation and even closer to Switzerland who constantly asks for the plant to be closed down (not even talking about Fessenheim built on a seismic fault very near to an historical earthquake of close to magnitude 7 that the plant is not able to sustain, Bugey and Fessenheim are only two examples). Nuclear power is terribly expensive and non economic, dangerous in a warming world, there have been already instances in which some French nuclear powerplant were about to be drown and the cooling inoperant as for Fukushima (e.g. Blayais nuclear power plant in 1999 during the very powerful winter storm on the 27th of December, other plants during recent drought as the flow of the nearby river was not sufficient, or the river water temperature was too elevated). It is also well known that French nuclear powerplants are vulnerable to terrorist attacks. At many occasion, Greenpeace's team managed to get into the security perimeter of several French nuclear powerplants without being noticed before tenth of minutes. There are other risks that were "finally" discovered by the French safety nuclear authority, post Fukushima, leading to 10th of billions of euros of additional safety building works, while a high proportion of the nuclear power plants are quite often not producing any watt of power, as in maintenance due to their lifespan being longer than expected. The cost does not include the decomissioning cost which will be humongous.


The result is that France is lagging behind by a very long length all Western European countries for the renewables (excluding hydro electricity), while France has the second potential for windfarm after the UK and a very strong solar potential. Only targetting the level of renewable already attained in neighbouring countries would allow to decommission 30 to 40% of existing ailing nuclear powerplant. If France has had invested as much research and development to renewables as it has to nuclear, the country would be a leading producer and manufacturer of renewable as for example Danmark or Sweden.

Besides, France imports most of its uranium from poor African countries, mainly Niger, and the French company exploiting uranium is very careless, polluting the environment in Niger, and arming the health of the NIgerian people, while the country has not got the share of the true value of the mineral. We cannot call that sustainable and renewable development. The CO2 of nuclear power is effectively lower than hydrocarbure, but uranium mines emit a lot of CO2 for mining and transporting the minerals, as many mines generally do...

The new nuclear powerplant in building process in Flammanville is already a financial disaster as costing far more than the original budget and the delivery has been delayed by many years... this is the same that the UK is to build in Hinkley point...which is not a very clever idea...


Before judging Nicolas Hulot, I think it would be better to listen to a translated version of the 1 hour interview he gave this morning to a French radio, you will understand that he is not only the man who wanted to reduce nuclear share of electricity by 50%, which is by the way perfectly feasable and in a relatively swift way and has an overwhelming support in the French society (and was already voted by the previous National Assembly). Nicolas Hulot only talked about nuclear for one minute out of a 60 minutes interview. If you hear what he says, you will understand that his ideas resonate with what we can read on the ASIF blog, and I would not say I am personally a great supporter of Nicolas Hulot, even if he is a sincere and honest man with good environmental credentials, I think he should have not embarked in being part of Macron government, which was obviously to use Nicolas Hulot as a marketing tool, therefore doing a "rough" type of greenwashing, now "le roi est nu".
« Last Edit: August 28, 2018, 08:20:44 PM by bluesky »