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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #550 on: February 01, 2016, 10:39:41 PM »
The linked article (and associated plot) show that there is not a chance in hell that Canada will meet the emissions targets that it pledged to meet at the Copenhagen climate talks in 2009.  We will see if it does better with its Paris Pact pledges:

https://news.vice.com/article/canada-admits-theres-no-chance-itll-reach-its-climate-change-targets-not-even-close

Extract: "The projection, released by Environment and Climate Change Canada, shows that Canada is expected to pump out the equivalent of 768 megatons of CO2 by 2020, and 815 megatons by 2030. Those projections also do not include emissions from the forestry sector.

That's nowhere near the targets Canada set for itself at the Copenhagen climate talks in 2009. There, Ottawa pledged to reduce its CO2 emissions by 17 percent over 2005 levels by 2020.

Instead, Canada will likely increase its CO2 emissions by roughly two percent. The numbers say that increase may be as high as five percent."
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #551 on: February 02, 2016, 06:13:29 AM »
ASLR
Canada doesn't have a chance of making it's pledges as long as the tar sands are in operation. Trudeau closing them down would cause a civil war, with Ottawa being accused of "killing the west".


Unfortunately I think this applies in many countries where oil exports make up a large proportion of the economy. I've included a link that breaks down emissions by province, the comments section demonstrates that the deniers are still as shrill as ever.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/carbon-challenge-the-economic-cost-of-emissions-reduction/article28359647/


This isn't going to end well.
Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #552 on: February 02, 2016, 10:57:57 AM »
This isn't going to end well.

Terry,

Human nature for acquisition is bad enough, but denialism compounds the problem as all of the Paris Pact pledges are based on an assumed ECS value of 3C while more and more recent research is pointing closer to 4C.  How can one fix a problem if one cannot even admit that it is there?

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #553 on: February 02, 2016, 08:22:30 PM »
ASLR
Was the purpose of the "Paris Pact" to solve the problem or to win the next poll?


Without a treaty, without punishment for non-compliance, without firm commitments to policies that are acted on NOW, the whole thing appears more an exercise in kicking the can than carefully removing the contents of the can & securing it's contents.


The present glut of crude has done far more damage to oil producing economies than environmental regulation, in it's most draconian iterations, could have done. The glut was engineered to destroy Russia's economy & collateral damage was expected, but accepted.


If the same acceptance had been made for the collateral damage that a drastical reduction in fossil fuel usage might entail, we would now be watching the Keeling Curve's reversal, a reduction in climate exacerbated weather, and  possibly could look forward to the slow regrowth of Arctic Sea Ice.


Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #554 on: February 03, 2016, 04:28:45 PM »
Terry,

From your linked article, not only are the tar sands a continuing problem, but also shale gas in British Columbia:

Extract: "British Columbia: Emissions in 2012: 60 MT, 21 per cent higher than in 1990."

Additionally, millions of area of forest in B.C. have been lost.

I agree that talk is cheap.

ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #555 on: February 03, 2016, 11:56:36 PM »
I provide a few extracts from the linked interview with Naomi Klein about how climate change will make things meaner, even after considering the Paris Pact:

http://billmoyers.com/story/naomi-klein-climate-change-not-just-about-things-getting-hotter-its-about-things-getting-meaner/


Extract: "So in terms of what to make of Paris, the truth is, I think that the deal that those politicians managed to negotiate, there was all this euphoria. I’ve never seen leaders congratulate themselves so fervently. [laughter] It was truly unseemly. “We are awesome!” Yeah. [laughter]

And I have to say that the reporting was far too deferential, far too credulous. There were headlines like, you know, this agreement marks the end of the fossil fuel era. And then a couple weeks ago there was a piece interviewing executives from all the major oil companies about whether they felt that the Paris agreement was going to impact their business model and all of them [who] agreed to talk said not at all. And Exxon said, “We don’t expect it to impact any of our assets” and specifically said, “We don’t believe this will lead to a single stranded asset.” And now, since we know that the fossil fuel companies have five times more carbon in their proven reserves than is compatible with a two-degree temperature target — and what’s in the agreement is that we should actually try to keep it to 1.5 degrees warming Celsius — if they’re saying it’s not going to impact their assets, what they’re saying is, “Look, this is a nonbinding, non-legally binding, non-enforceable agreement and we’re going to continue with business as usual as long as we can.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #556 on: February 04, 2016, 06:16:41 AM »
Yeah.
Everything is awesome
Everything is cool when you're part of a team
Everything is awesome
When you're living out a dream


That's President Business and his followers theme song.
I lost my dream with Paris, that we actually would agree on mitigating, with real goals firmly anchored in scientific findings.

Another part of our dream world, knocked on my door yesterday. JW.
I had a chat with them, as usual. They didn't want to talk about climate change of course, and they tried their usual version of creation. I told them that the only creationists on this planet that I see as more extreme than Jehova, are the young earth creationists who believe this planet is six thousand years old, you belive we humans were created six thousand years ago. That's nonsense.
We have one thing in common though, most things around us today has been created through scientific findings and engineered by humans, in one way or another. Our clothes, our shoes, our cars, even the leaflets and books you're carrying. Our computers, refrigerators, air conditioners and heat pumps. If you reject science you shouldn't use anything produced today.

It doesn't matter if it's capitalism or religion, or both at the same time. The capitalists still have their dream, as well as the creationists.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #557 on: February 05, 2016, 07:55:14 PM »
Opponents Of Obama’s Climate Plan Take Fight To The Supreme Court
Quote
A group of 29 states, along with utility and energy companies, are trying to get the Supreme Court to block Obama’s Clean Power Plan — an attempt that environmental groups say is “highly unusual” and likely to fail.
...
“Some of the attacks are on the very elements of the plan that make it flexible and cost effective,” said Sean Donahue, counsel for the Environmental Defense Fund. “We feel the rule is very strong legally and factually.”

The environmental groups filed a response to the stay application with the Supreme Court Thursday. Eighteen states, along with multiple power companies and energy associations, also filed responses in support of the rule.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/02/04/3746375/stay-request-cpp-opponents/
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Clare

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #558 on: February 06, 2016, 06:04:50 AM »
I provide a few extracts from the linked interview with Naomi Klein about how climate change will make things meaner, even after considering the Paris Pact:

http://billmoyers.com/story/naomi-klein-climate-change-not-just-about-things-getting-hotter-its-about-things-getting-meaner/
"

Thanks, I think this interview is excellent, longish but V WELL worth reading.
Clare

JimD

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #559 on: February 06, 2016, 04:08:01 PM »
More proof that no one is going to live up to this agreement.

There were so many topics this could land in.

Quote
Fears that some of Australia's most important climate research institutions will be gutted under a Turnbull government have been realised with deep job cuts for scientists.

Fairfax Media has learnt that as many as 110 positions in the Oceans and Atmosphere division will go, with a similarly sharp reduction in the Land and Water division.

Total job cuts would be about 350 staff over two years, the CSIRO confirmed in an email to staff, with the Data61 and Manufacturing divisions also hit.

The cuts were flagged in November, just a week before the Paris climate summit began, with key divisions told to prepare lists of job cuts or to find new ways to raise revenue.

"Climate will be all gone, basically," one senior scientist said before the announcement. […]

It is understood just 30 staff will be left in the Oceans and Atmosphere unit and they will not be working on climate issues related to basic data gathering..

..About 100 jobs are planned to go from units dedicated to research in areas including greenhouse gas levels, sea level rise, ocean temperatures, ocean acidification and assessing what is required to keep global warming to two degrees. The jobs would be replaced by new positions in other areas.

Dr Church, who has worked at CSIRO since 1978 and expects to lose his job, said the cuts would make it difficult for Australia to uphold its part of the Paris deal, which agreed there should be greater investment in climate research, including improved observations and early warning systems.


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2016/02/australia-climate-science-to-be-gutted.html
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P-maker

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #560 on: February 06, 2016, 08:39:09 PM »
Jim,

It is the same sad story in many other countries involved in "Mission Innovation". In Denmark we have experienced a simlilar "slashing" of research budgets for new energy technologies.

2015: 380 mio. DKK
2016: 180 mio. DKK
2017:   ?
2018:   ?
2019:   ?
2020: 580 mio. DKK (MI target)

It seems outright silly to fire good and experienced people now in order to build up new secretariats, research groups and coordination units in a few years. The University of Copenhagen for instance has just kicked out 500 members of staff due to budget constraints this year.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2016, 10:54:37 PM by P-maker »

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #561 on: February 07, 2016, 02:26:12 AM »
After climate summit, this year's green bond issuance could exceed $50 billion
http://reuters.com/article/idUSL8N15H3H9
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #562 on: February 10, 2016, 12:02:18 AM »
As aircraft already meet the new UN CO₂ emission standards (to be implemented by 2023): "Aviation's first-ever carbon standards won't do much to slow global warming"

http://mashable.com/2016/02/09/new-carbon-emissions-standards-for-commercial-aircraft-are-anemic/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #563 on: February 10, 2016, 02:42:54 AM »
Supreme Court blocks Obama's climate rule for power plants
Quote
The Supreme Court has blocked President Obama's landmark climate rule for power plants, dealing a major blow to the president's climate agenda.

In an order released Tuesday night, the court said it is placing a stay on the Environmental Protection Agency's plan to cut carbon pollution from power plants while industry and state lawsuits move forward.

The court granted the request in a 5-4 vote on Tuesday night, saying the rule was on hold until the circuit court reviews it and Supreme Court appeals are exhausted. The court’s four liberal justices dissented from the decision.

The rule — the Clean Power Plan — is the main plank of Obama's climate change agenda. It’s designed to cut carbon pollution from the electricity sector by 32 percent over 2005 levels by 2030 by assigning states individual reduction targets based on their energy mix.
...
The order from the court is extraordinarily unprecedented. While court often block rules temporarily, lawyers on all sides said the Supreme Court has never done so when a lower court refused to.
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/268843-supreme-court-blocks-obamas-climate-rule-for-power-plants
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #564 on: February 10, 2016, 02:57:21 AM »
Sigmetnow


Your 'signature' has never been more appropriate!


Terry

Pmt111500

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #565 on: February 10, 2016, 04:39:20 AM »
Very much to my unsurprise, the US supreme voted strictly along the political parties which elected the judges to office. I do not know what the relationship between humanitarian court and the us supreme is, does someone know? Could f.e. some eskimo sue the republican judges? Yes, I know, all of them would likely be dead before the case would be closed, but it's  still interesting to think, in theory. Or maybe this could be a topic for an international, but very boring, thriller book  8) ;D ::) . Who in their right mind would want to read about the internal thoughts of participants in a case like that??? http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2016/02/09/3747944/breaking-the-supreme-court-just-gave-the-finger-to-president-obamas-environmental-policies/
« Last Edit: February 10, 2016, 04:44:48 AM by Pmt111500 »

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #566 on: February 10, 2016, 04:27:38 PM »
On a more optimistic note....  ;)

Ahead of the official signing of the Climate Change Agreement in April in New York, the U.N. is inviting everyone to record a 30-second video on "what the agreement means for you and what you are going to do to support it," and share it on Twitter or other social media.
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-you/

Here is the tweet from Achim Steiner, the UN Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive Director:
https://twitter.com/asteiner/status/697419170787549184

And this is from Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary:
https://twitter.com/cfigueres/status/697344010885529600

And a report on what the Paris Agreement means for the UK:
https://twitter.com/unfccc/status/694477310494384128
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #567 on: February 10, 2016, 04:45:21 PM »
The US Supreme Court's decision increases the importance of the November presidential election to the planet's fate....

The good news is that Senator Bernie Sanders, the candidate speaking loudest on the need to address climate change, won big last night in the primary voting in the state of New Hampshire -- more than 20 points over challenger Hillary Clinton.  (And even Hillary has taken to addressing climate change more directly, mentioning "millions of clean energy jobs" in her concession speech last night.)

Quote
@SenSanders: The Supreme Court's decision is deeply disappointing. There's no time to spare in the fight to combat climate change

https://twitter.com/sensanders/status/697207157469659137
« Last Edit: February 10, 2016, 04:52:48 PM by Sigmetnow »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #568 on: February 10, 2016, 05:19:50 PM »

The good news is that Senator Bernie Sanders, the candidate speaking loudest on the need to address climate change, won big last night in the primary voting in the state of New Hampshire -- more than 20 points over challenger Hillary Clinton.

Sigmetnow,

If you do the math you will see that following the New Hampshire primary Clinton has 394 delegates while Sanders has 42 delegates (see attached tracker and linked website, and don't forget to count the superdelegates):

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #569 on: February 10, 2016, 06:12:15 PM »
Will John Roberts Destroy His Reputation And A Livable Climate At The Same Time?
Quote
The shocking decision by the five conservative Supreme Court justices to “stay” the EPA’s carbon regulations for power plants does not, by itself, destroy what’s left of the Court’s reputation — or even doom the EPA’s Clean Power Plan (CPP).

Heck, it doesn’t even mean that the United States won’t be able to hit the CO2 reduction target it pledged with the other nations of the world in the Paris Agreement. Indeed, I expect with or without the CPP, the U.S. is probably going to meet its Paris pledge, its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), to cut greenhouse gas pollution 26 to 28% below 2005 levels in 2025 (see below).

The Court’s stay just stops the EPA from from starting to implement its “Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Generating Units” probably until the Court itself rules on it — assuming that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit rules for the EPA and then the Supreme Court agrees to hear the appeal.

Senior White House officials said on a media call Tuesday evening that this was a temporary procedural determination that does nothing to affect the soundness of the rule, nor the White House’s determination to proceed with the rule and to cut emissions. They expressed confidence that the administration’s climate targets were achievable, citing momentum in the renewable power sector.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/02/09/3747972/john-roberts-climate/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #570 on: February 10, 2016, 06:26:59 PM »

The good news is that Senator Bernie Sanders, the candidate speaking loudest on the need to address climate change, won big last night in the primary voting in the state of New Hampshire -- more than 20 points over challenger Hillary Clinton.

Sigmetnow,

If you do the math you will see that following the New Hampshire primary Clinton has 394 delegates while Sanders has 42 delegates (see attached tracker and linked website, and don't forget to count the superdelegates):

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/

But 2,382 delegates are needed for the Democrat nomination.  And superdelegates can vote for whomever they choose.  Can't call the election yet.

Even if Clinton wins, though, Sanders has pushed her to be stronger on climate issues.  And no doubt the voting public will continue to do so.   :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #571 on: February 11, 2016, 06:50:04 PM »
Laurent Fabius Sums Up Paris Agreement Strengths and Key Objectives for 2016
Remarks to COP21/CMP11 Bureau Meeting
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/laurent-fabius-reflections-on-the-paris-conference-and-implications-for-2016/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #572 on: February 13, 2016, 12:39:06 AM »
5 States Forging Ahead With Obama Power Plan, Court Hold or Not
Quote
At least five states will press ahead with efforts to curb emissions from power plants even after the U.S. Supreme Court issued a stay on President Barack Obama’s key climate change program.

Colorado, New York, California, Virginia and Washington said they’ll move ahead irrespective of the decision by the nation’s highest court to temporarily block the Clean Power Plan on Tuesday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-10/5-states-forging-ahead-with-obama-power-plan-court-hold-or-not
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #573 on: February 13, 2016, 07:33:34 AM »
This agreement resembles the western worlds mitigation efforts. Facade polishing, performed by super heroes. ;)

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #574 on: February 13, 2016, 07:48:30 PM »
Holding back the Clean Power Plan will not eliminate the other green efforts already underway.

Clean Power Advocates Downplay Supreme Court's Damage to Paris Accord
Despite their own warnings that a judicial stay to the Clean Power Plan would undermine the new climate treaty, environmentalists now say they are unfazed.
Quote
Last November, as Albright and Stern were filing their briefs, a Sierra Club report predicted that electricity producers would meet the Clean Power Plan's emission targets five years ahead of schedule. It was based on the club's "Beyond Coal" campaign objective of retiring and replacing half of the nation's remaining coal fired plants with clean electricity.

"It is not the case that the Clean Power Plan is driving all the change," Coequyt said. He said the early emission goals in the plan—those that would satisfy the Paris pledges in the coming decade—were "absolutely" within reach.

Indeed, the combination of tighter controls on other pollutants like mercury, competition from cheap natural gas, and booming investment in wind and solar are pushing coal aside already, long before the Clean Power Plan deadlines arrive.

Environmental groups say that emissions reductions are even more likely since Congress, in a budget deal with the White House, extended tax breaks for wind and solar power for a few more years.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/12022016/clean-power-advocates-downplay-supreme-court-damage-paris-climate-accord-clean-power-plan
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oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #575 on: February 14, 2016, 07:14:53 AM »
Keeping the World below 2° Is a $12.1 Trillion Investment Opportunity, BNEF Report Says
Quote
LONDON: Keeping the world below the 2 degrees Celsius pathway presents a US$12.1 trillion investment opportunity over the next 25 years, a new analysis states.

The report Mapping the Gap: The Road From Paris, presented today by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) at the 2016 Investor Summit on Climate Risk hosted by Ceres, shows the opportunities and challenges of filling the ‘gap’ between the business-as-usual (BAU) investment in renewable energy and what is needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
...
In fact, if governments and business leaders take no additional steps to what they have planned today, the investment opportunity for tackling climate change is US$6.9 trillion, or US$277 billion per year.

The ‘gap’ between this scenario and what is needed to keep the world safe is US$5.2 trillion, or US$208 billion per year. To put the numbers in perspective, authors point out this is far less than the US$454 billion per year that people in the US ask every year to get their auto loans.
http://www.theclimategroup.org/what-we-do/news-and-blogs/keeping-the-world-below-2-degrees-is-a-121-trillion-investment-opportunity-bnef-report-says/

I highly doubt that $5 trillion is all that is needed to keep the world safe. I'll have a deeper look and try to find why.

bosbas

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #576 on: February 14, 2016, 12:48:24 PM »
This has the potential to unleash a new era. Finally the end of the super-conservative majority of SCOTUS?
Antonin Scalia, Justice on the Supreme Court, Dies at 79:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/14/us/antonin-scalia-death.html?_r=0

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #577 on: February 14, 2016, 02:09:24 PM »
Brian H. Potts, energy and environmental law:

Quote
Yesterday I put the chances of the #CleanPowerPlan surviving judicial review at < 10%. With #Scalia's death, I now say it's > 75%.

https://twitter.com/brianhpotts/status/698710954641588224
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #578 on: February 14, 2016, 02:19:37 PM »
Experts React to Supreme Court Stay of Clean Power Plan
http://climatenexus.org/experts-react-supreme-court-stay-clean-power-plan
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #579 on: February 15, 2016, 04:52:36 PM »
From the Facebook comments: "It really says something when your death will make peoples' lives better."

What U.S Supreeme Court Justice Antonin Scalia’s Death Means For Climate Change
Quote
Just days after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling clouded the future of a new United Nations climate pact, the passing of one of its justices has boosted the pact's chances of succeeding.

Supreme Court justice Antonin Scalia died at a resort in Texas on Saturday. Scalia, 79, was the court’s conservative leader and his death means it is now more likely that key EPA rules that aim to curb climate pollution from the power industry will be upheld.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/what-scalias-death-means-for-climate-change-20033
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Bruce Steele

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #580 on: February 15, 2016, 07:27:35 PM »
Maybe a pact without teeth trumps the very realCo2 emissions reductions plan for coal fired power plants scuttled just one week ago by Scalia's ( last?) vote.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/10/us/politics/supreme-court-blocks-obama-epa-coal-emissions-regulations.html

Getting a new court justice appointed within the next year is unlikely so the stay on  the plans to implement emissions regulations will also hold until it is again reviewed by a lower court. There will be enormous effort put into throttling that lower court decision one way or the other because delay benefits monetary interests. I would venture to guess that lower courts will attempt some radical rulings knowing the supreme court will split 4/4 for the next year +, but that's another story.   
« Last Edit: February 15, 2016, 07:45:07 PM by Bruce Steele »

RaenorShine

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #581 on: February 15, 2016, 07:55:16 PM »
Going Beyond "Dangerous" Climate Change -  Lecture by Professor Kevin Anderson at the London School of Economics on 4 February 2016

Quote
Despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature increase at or below 2 degrees Celsius. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upward sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change.

Kevin Anderson will address the endemic bias prevalent amongst many of those building emission scenarios to underplay the scale of the 2°C challenge. In several respects, the modeling community is actually self-censoring its research to conform to the dominant political and economic paradigm. However, even a slim chance of 'keeping below' a 2°C rise now demands a revolution in how we consume and produce energy. Such a rapid and deep transition will have profound implications for the framing of society, and is far removed from the rhetoric of green growth that increasingly dominates the climate change agenda.


Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #582 on: February 16, 2016, 04:46:30 PM »
Deal on Aviation Emissions Sets Can’t-Miss Goals
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The International Civil Aviation Organization, the United Nations’ aviation agency, approved the first-ever binding agreement to cover emissions for aircrafts. New efficiency standards will apply to all new commercial jets delivered after 2028, as well as existing jets produced from 2023.

The rub is that the long-awaited standard is lower than what the industry is on track to achieve anyway in the next decade.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/16/business/energy-environment/a-hollow-agreement-on-aviation-emissions.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #583 on: February 16, 2016, 06:17:27 PM »
Last weeks freeze on the new Clean Power Plan leaves the matter in the hands of a liberal appeals court which is likely to uphold the new EPA rules, before routine appeals send the case back to the Supreme Court.  If the Supreme Court rule with a 4-4 tied vote then the appeals court ruling will stand and hopeful the Clean Power Plan will be upheld.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/what-scalias-death-means-for-climate-change-20033

Extract: "Last week, Scalia and four other justices ruled to “stay” the Clean Power Plan while litigation moves forward. The 5-4 ruling effectively put a freeze on the new EPA rules while the lawsuit is heard by a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C.

That appeals court is a liberal one, and it’s expected (but not guaranteed) to uphold the new EPA rules, before routine appeals send the case to the Supreme Court."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #584 on: February 17, 2016, 02:58:48 PM »
Quote
President Obama’s special envoy for climate change has warned Republican presidential hopefuls including Donald Trump and Ted Cruz that any attempt to scrap the Paris climate agreement would lead to a “diplomatic black eye” for the US.

Speaking to journalists in Brussels, Todd Stern also said that a recent supreme court decision to block Barack Obama’s clean power plan would not affect US climate pledges, or plans to formally sign up to the Paris agreement later this year.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/16/todd-stern-warns-republicans-against-scrapping-paris-climate-deal
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #585 on: February 19, 2016, 08:31:02 PM »
Christiana Figueres to leave UN climate change role
UN’s chief climate diplomat and key player in Paris agreement says she will step down in July
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/02/19/christiana-figueres-to-leave-un-climate-change-role/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #586 on: February 21, 2016, 08:44:49 PM »
Climate scientists face tight deadline to deliver 1.5C research
Researchers will have 18-21 months to flesh out understanding of tough global warming limit if – as expected – IPCC accepts call to produce a special report.
Quote
Adopted as an aspirational goal at last December’s Paris summit, the 1.5C threshold is seen as critical to protect vulnerable communities. But most available analysis focuses on the longer standing 2C target.

Accordingly, in the small print of the deal was a request to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for a special report on 1.5C, by 2018.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/02/15/climate-scientists-face-tight-deadline-to-deliver-1-5c-research/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #587 on: February 22, 2016, 02:50:50 AM »
Climate scientists face tight deadline to deliver 1.5C research
Researchers will have 18-21 months to flesh out understanding of tough global warming limit if – as expected – IPCC accepts call to produce a special report.
Quote
Adopted as an aspirational goal at last December’s Paris summit, the 1.5C threshold is seen as critical to protect vulnerable communities. But most available analysis focuses on the longer standing 2C target.

Accordingly, in the small print of the deal was a request to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for a special report on 1.5C, by 2018.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/02/15/climate-scientists-face-tight-deadline-to-deliver-1-5c-research/

At our current rate, we might (or might not) be at 1.5C by 2018
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #588 on: February 22, 2016, 02:39:25 PM »
At our current rate, we might (or might not) be at 1.5C by 2018

That would be quite the wake-up call, wouldn't it?
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #589 on: February 22, 2016, 02:40:49 PM »
New COP21 President Royal Visits UNFCCC
Pledges to Build Paris Agreement Momentum
Quote
The new President of the UN climate change process, French Minister of the Environment, Energy and the Sea Ségolène Royal, made her first visit today to the secretariat of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and underlined the need for continued momentum to build on the historic Paris Climate Change Agreement, which was reached in the French capital in December.
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/ségolène-royal-appointed-new-cop21-president/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #590 on: February 22, 2016, 11:28:15 PM »
Apparently, the future of the Clean Power Plan will not be decided until spring of 2017:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/02/22/despite-the-supreme-court-heres-why-the-white-house-says-well-cut-carbon-anyway/

Extract: " … on Monday administration officials took advantage of a new report to argue that the recent five-year extensions of wind and solar tax credits will cushion the blow and serve as a “bridge” to the Clean Power Plan.
Whether that is a bridge to nowhere depends on whether the Clean Power Plan survives the court system intact. That won’t be decided until spring of 2017 after an appeals court hears and decides, and the Supreme Court reviews, the case brought against the administration’s plan by a group of state governments and utilities."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #591 on: February 23, 2016, 03:17:51 AM »
Per the linked SciAm article, virtually all CoP21 plans for mitigating climate change include the use of Carbon Capture and Storage, CCS.  However, the article points-up that due to the current low price of crude oil, virtually all current commercial CCS projects are being shut-down (and cheap crude oil is expected to last through 2017, which will make it difficult to restart this industry):

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cheap-oil-is-undermining-the-success-of-nearly-every-climate-cleanup-plan/

Extract: "A few months ago at the Paris climate talks, President Barack Obama and a panoply of world leaders talked at length about the importance of reducing carbon dioxide pollution associated with burning coal, the largest source of greenhouse gases. So far there is only one way to do that without pulling the plug on coal altogether: carbon capture and storage (CCS), a process by which CO2 is pulled from a smokestack before it escapes into the air and is then buried deep underground.
Nearly every plan to mitigate global warming includes CCS, yet few countries have adopted the technology because there is little incentive to make the costly investment. Decades ago, however, the U.S. found a clever way to make the method economically viable: tie CCS to oil recovery. And while the scheme seemed to work, low oil prices now are putting CCS—and therefore almost all climate cleanup plans—in jeopardy."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #592 on: February 24, 2016, 04:52:01 PM »
https://twitter.com/khayhoe/status/702187450299338752
Katharine Hayhoe:  "How did I miss this?! Awesome (and very readable) 9-page summary of the history of climate policy negotiations:"   THE FRAGILE FRAMEWORK:  Can nations unite to save Earth’s climate?
   http://www.nature.com/polopoly_fs/1.18861!/menu/main/topColumns/topLeftColumn/pdf/527427a.pdf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #593 on: February 25, 2016, 01:13:16 PM »
Hundreds Of Lawmakers Are Ganging Up Against The Clean Power Plan
Quote
Thirty-four senators and 171 representatives signed the amicus brief, including presidential candidates and senators Marco Rubio (R-FL), and Ted Cruz (R-TX). All signatories are Republicans, except Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a coal-dependent state.
...
The White House said the court filing is just the latest Republican “obstructionist” maneuver, according to published reports. “We remain confident that we will prevail on the merits when the plan gets it full day in court,” said White House spokesman Frank Benenati to the Associated Press.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/02/24/3753132/clean-power-plan-brief/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #594 on: February 27, 2016, 02:38:26 PM »
Are big loans to fossil fuel companies being concentrated into the few banks (Australia, Japan) that have not sworn off such activity?

Australia's biggest banks pump billions into fossil fuels despite climate pledges
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/26/australias-biggest-banks-pump-billions-into-fossil-fuels-despite-climate-pledges
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #595 on: February 27, 2016, 08:00:27 PM »
Rising U.S. Emissions Make Paris Promises Elusive
Quote
The biggest red flag at the moment might not involve CO2 pollution from power plants. Emissions of carbon dioxide from electricity generation barely grew at all from 2013 to 2014, the data show.

An even more intractable problem is methane, a much more potent greenhouse gas in the short term. It's increasingly clear that the administration is not sure how much we are emitting.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/26022016/rising-us-emissions-greenhouse-gases-make-paris-climate-ageement-promises-elusive
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #596 on: February 27, 2016, 08:03:42 PM »
Study: California Methane Leak Largest in U.S. History
Quote
The gas leak that forced the evacuation of 1,800 homes in the mountains above Los Angeles late last year was the largest methane leak in U.S. history and shows the climate risks of aging natural gas infrastructure, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Science.

The Aliso Canyon leak near the Porter Ranch neighborhood was so big that it emitted 97,100 tons of methane — the equivalent of the annual greenhouse gas pollution from 572,000 cars, according to the study, which used aircraft to measure methane concentrations in the atmosphere near Aliso Canyon during the leak.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/california-methane-leak-largest-us-history-20077
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #597 on: February 28, 2016, 06:44:40 PM »
Study Calls For Leaner ‘Carbon Budget’ to Slow Warming
Quote
The difference between the previous budget estimates and Rogelj’s is that many previous estimates accounted only for carbon dioxide, leaving out other greenhouse gases such as methane.
...
Regardless of which carbon budget policymakers subscribe to, current emissions trends are not remotely on track to meet any of them, Schmidt said.

“The imperative to reduce emissions is effectively unchanged,” he said.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/leaner-carbon-budget-to-slow-warming-20075
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #598 on: March 01, 2016, 05:39:35 PM »
EU set to emit 2bn tonnes more CO2 than Paris climate pledge
Quote
The EU is set to emit 2bn tonnes more CO2 than it promised at the Paris climate talks, threatening an agreement to cap global warming at 2C, a note from the European commission has revealed.

Carbon prices will rise too slowly to cut industrial emissions as much as needed, says a confidential note prepared for MEPs on the environment committee, which the Guardian has seen.

Lawmakers say that the shortfall could spur criticism from other countries that signed up to the Paris agreement, which aims for net zero emissions later this century.

But a correction in the pace at which carbon allowances are removed from the market - to raise their prices - could spark anger from coal-dependent EU countries such as Poland, which believes its industry would be unfairly hit.

The EU was “caught between a rock and a hard place” said the Green MEP Bas Eickhout, who sits on the environment committee.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/29/eu-set-to-emit-2bn-tonnes-more-co2-than-paris-climate-pledge
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #599 on: March 02, 2016, 02:10:15 PM »
“The Old Normal Is Gone”: February Shatters Global Temperature Records
Quote
Keep in mind that it took from the dawn of the industrial age until last October to reach the first 1.0 degree Celsius, and we’ve come as much as an extra 0.4 degrees further in just the last five months. Even accounting for the margin of error associated with these preliminary datasets, that means it’s virtually certain that February handily beat the record set just last month for the most anomalously warm month ever recorded. That’s stunning.
...
Almost overnight, the world has moved within arm’s reach of the climate goals negotiated just last December in Paris. There, small island nations on the front line of climate change set a temperature target of no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius rise by the year 2100 as a line in the sand, and that limit was embraced by the global community of nations. On this pace, we may reach that level for the first time—though briefly—later this year. In fact, at the daily level, we’re probably already there.  We could now be right in the heart of a decade or more surge in global warming that could kick off a series of tipping points with far-reaching implications on our species and the countless others we share the planet with.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/03/01/february_2016_s_shocking_global_warming_temperature_record.html
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