So I have been wondering for a while about two related questions: all that snow that is said to be in Quebec - is it really there? And if it's there - will it last longer on the ground when spring arrives? (And is an ice age coming along??)
The reason for the first question is that it is difficult (at least for me) to get the data behind the maps and snow water equivalent charts, and that in trying to get specific weather station data to substantiate the SWE chart and the snow depth and anomaly map, I had some challenges.
The reason for the second question is the lively discussion on the forum of what the SWE anomaly actually means.
I finally managed to generate a snow depth database for the past 19 seasons (2000-2018) for a single station that lies inside the anomalous area in Quebec - Goose bay (yes, in Labrador actually). I used Ogimet Synop data - the only side where I could get historical snow depth measurements.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=71816&ano=2018&mes=3&day=20&hora=18&min=0&ndays=50I didn't use this link but actually used multiple queries to get the raw synop reports, parsed them, and then trimmed then to cut off late snow days after the winter pack has melted out, and days that only had snow patches remaining. Had to use some judgement and spent ages getting it sorted out.
Note: Goose Bay is the only station in the Ogimet database that is inside the high snow area in Quebec and has snow depth data. Two other Quebec stations - Kuujjuaq and La Grande Riviere have snow depth but fall outside the anomalous area.
My results are contained in two hard-to-read charts, showing all these seasons together. I think these charts answer the questions qualitatively:
A. Yes, the snow is really there, much thicker than usual.
B. Melt out of winter snow pack occurs in late April or early May. Lots of accumulated snow in February-March does have a tendency to melt out a bit later, perhaps by a week (two at the very most). Note: it seems light April snows are much better at delaying melt-out than heavy March snows.
Bottom line: we are
not remotely close to the snow lasting through the summer, and I doubt that we ever will be. An ice age doesn't seem to be approaching.
On the other hand, adding one week of snow cover during peak insolation season does count for some albedo effect. I don't think it's significant enough to affect the melting season, especially as the nearby Baffin bay is a peripheral area, downstream of the main arctic basin in terms of currents.
I suspect that in Siberia things might be a bit different as the ESS is much more important than Baffin, but I'm not sure if I can bring myself to build the same database for some station(s) along that shore.
If anyone is aware of a website that offers direct downloads of historical snow depth data for specific meteorological stations, please post links.
Charts are snow depth in cm, for Goose Bay (station 71816), vs. day of year (negative days are of the previous calendar year).