Since ASLR has forgotten more than I will ever know about ENSO, I thought I could still make a small contribution by going back to the old threads and dredging up some of what ASLR may have actually forgotten, but we still might want to look at again...
like this chart from the 2014 El Nino thread:
The buildup of warm water volume continues.
Discussion points:
- Warm water volume buildup triggers El Nino (with a lag of 7 months, on average), which in turn dissipates the heat to the atmosphere (and eventually to space).
- The recent failed 2014 El Nino did not relieve the buildup of heat, so the fuel is still there, waiting for the match.
- This buildup is the largest since 1997, so the amount of fuel is consistent with at least a large El Nino, and maybe a Super-size if the fuel continues to accumulate before being ignited.
- The current pattern is somewhat similar to 2000-2002 and 1986-1987 ... a long buildup of heat before El Nino fires up.
- The pattern is most similar to 1989-1991, which was cruelly snuffed out by Pinatubo before it could reach its full potential. And now we have a much smaller volcano in Chile to complement the similarity.
...
Thanks again to ASLR for bringing together all these enlightening data sources (even the ones he's forgotten for a while) and providing analyses to help us make sense of it all. It now seems almost certain we are headed for a new high GMST for 2015, and this pool of warm water could push 2016 even higher still.
I think we can go ahead and help out our denier friends start the next meme...
"no warming since 2016!"