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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #350 on: March 21, 2015, 03:36:06 PM »
The attached 90-day Wheeler-Hendon plot indicates that on March 20 2015, the MJO remained relatively strong, but continued moving closer to South America.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #351 on: March 22, 2015, 02:03:19 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -8.1:
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #352 on: March 22, 2015, 03:01:48 AM »
The first attached image from NOAA of the Eq. Pac. Upper Ocean Heat Anom. around March 21 2015 shows that the rate of increase of heat in the upper ocean has slowed recently and could benefit from more WWBs.

The second & third images of show a NOAA satellite, and the BoM OLR, cloud cover, respectively, near the Eq. International Dateline is remaining moderately cloudy which could support some local storm activity.

The fourth image shows a WunderMap forecast for March 26 2015, indicating the development of a tropical storm/depression that may well grow into a WWB near the Eq. Dateline, to help support the Walker Cell in an El Nino pattern.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #353 on: March 22, 2015, 09:58:59 AM »
Expect the SOI-index to possibly become strongly positive as it probably will be affected by TC Nathan which should pass very close to Darwin n a few days or so...

//LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #354 on: March 22, 2015, 12:58:20 PM »
Expect the SOI-index to possibly become strongly positive as it probably will be affected by TC Nathan which should pass very close to Darwin n a few days or so...

//LMV

On March 22 2015 the daily Long Paddock Station SOI was -6.70, and as very positive daily values are now existing the 30-day moving average, we can expect the BoM value to continue moving in the negative direction for at least a couple of more days.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #355 on: March 22, 2015, 04:41:36 PM »
The first two MJO forecasts issued today show the GFS Ensemble Plume and the ECMM, forecasts respectively, from March 22 to April 5 2015.  These plots show that the MJO is lingering in the Eastern Pacific (note the ECMM forecast is a little bit more bullish than the GFS forecast) as is supported (to my eyes) by the third and fourth attached images of the Earth 250 hPa, and 850 hPa, Wind Maps, respectively, before continuing eastward.  While this pattern is not the most bullish to support a flipped Walker Cell to remain in an El Nino pattern, it appears to me that the lingering MJO is promoting surface winds in the southern monsoon trough (near 10S) which may promote the tropical storm/depression activity just south of the Eq. International Dateline forecast by WunderMap by March 26 2015.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #356 on: March 23, 2015, 01:02:53 AM »
The attached plot was issued today by the BoM & indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -9.5.

Also, I note that the cloud cover near the Eq. International Dateline remains relatively high.
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wili

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #357 on: March 23, 2015, 03:39:04 PM »
http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-03-22/welcome-double-el-ni-o-and-more-extreme-weather

Welcome to the 'Double El Niño' — and more extreme weather

Quote
We’re about to experience a “double El Niño” — a rare weather phenomenon that climatologists had warned about several months ago.

That means two consecutive years of the concentration of warm water in the Pacific Ocean that brings West Coast storms, quiet hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and busy ones in the Pacific. The danger is that this could mean more than a few months of odd weather, but instead usher in a new phase of climate change. Last year was the warmest year on record; 2015 looks set to be even warmer.

“One way of thinking about global warming from the human influences is that it's not just a gradual increase, but perhaps it's more like a staircase, and we're about to go up an extra step to a new level,” says climate scientist Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Normally, the warm water from an El Niño spreads across the Pacific and cools as it evaporates. The increased moisture in the air leads to thunderstorms and tropical storms. That hasn’t happened as much as anticipated over the last year.

“The moisture in the atmosphere triggers a lot of thunderstorms and tropical storms, but in general that atmospheric connection has not been anything like as strong as we normally expect in El Niño events, and as a result, the warm water is sort of sitting there, and it hasn't petered out,” Trenberth explains. “The energy has not been taken out of the ocean, and there's a mini global warming, so to speak, associated with that.”

What kind of temperature increase are we talking about?

Trenberth says it could mean a rise of two- or three-tenths-of-a-degree Celsius, or up to half a degree Fahrenheit.

The change could occur “relatively abruptly,” but then stick around for five or 10 years.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #358 on: March 23, 2015, 03:48:51 PM »
The following data issue by NOAA indicates that for the week centered on March 18 2015 all Nino indices were up and the Nino 3.4 value increased to +0.6:

                             Nino1+2    Nino3         Nino34       Nino4
Week                   SST SSTA  SST SSTA     SST SSTA   SST SSTA
   
25FEB2015     26.1-0.1   26.8 0.1       27.5 0.6   29.3 1.2
04MAR2015    25.8-0.5   26.9 0.1       27.5 0.5   29.3 1.1
11MAR2015    26.1-0.3   26.8-0.2       27.6 0.5   29.2 1.0
18MAR2015    26.5 0.0   27.3 0.2       27.8 0.6   29.4 1.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #359 on: March 23, 2015, 04:55:50 PM »
First, the Long Paddock Station daily SOI for March 23 2015 was: -1.10, thus guaranteeing that the BoM 30-day moving average SOI will continue to drop for at least a couple of more days.

Next, the first & second images show MJO projections from March 23 to April 6 2015, for the ECMM and NOAA's GFS Ensemble Plume forecasts, respectively.  The ECMM forecast remains the most bullish; however, they all show the MJO moving well past the International Dateline.  Therefore, we can expect the influence of the MJO on the Walker Cell to end in the next few days. 

Finally, the third & fourth images are Earth Wind (nullschool) Maps for the 250 hPa and 850 hPa, winds, respectively, for March 23 2015.  To me these maps indicate that the Walker Cell is starting to stabilize (slowly) into an El Nino pattern.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #360 on: March 23, 2015, 05:45:37 PM »
The three attached images are all University of Albany forecasts from 5S to 5N through March 30 2015 for the: 850 hPa & the 200 hPa, wind anomalies, and the Rainfall rate anomaly, respectively.  To me these forecast indicate that the Walker Cell pattern will remain in a weak El Nino pattern (but centered some 5 to 20 degrees east of the International Dateline) until at least March 30 2015.  Note that the forecast rainfall rate has increase from a few days ago; which recognizes the projected increase in storm activity near the Eq. Dateline.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #361 on: March 23, 2015, 07:34:40 PM »
Some things of particular interest:

1) According to latest GFS 12z run, there is a possibility of a new TC developing in Western Pacific in about 5-6 days at about 9N, 145E. It will most likely be rather weak but could give some beneficial westerlies which would further strengthen the current EKW.

2) I find it difficult to see how the he*l the Walker cell is going to switch as the most recent WWB wasn't able to fully transform it.

3) In the far eastern Pacific it looks like a minor WWB is emerging. This should plausibly lead to a decent surfacing of the current EKW. However, that cold pool of water need to go soon. If not, I believe that pool will have the opportunity to counteract the surfacing of the current EKW.

4) Finally, when the easterlies are returning again by early April which your forecast is indicating ASLR it should seriously interrupt the current EKW.. The question then is for how long...

Best, LMV

Csnavywx

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #362 on: March 23, 2015, 08:46:35 PM »
Some things of particular interest:

1) According to latest GFS 12z run, there is a possibility of a new TC developing in Western Pacific in about 5-6 days at about 9N, 145E. It will most likely be rather weak but could give some beneficial westerlies which would further strengthen the current EKW.

2) I find it difficult to see how the he*l the Walker cell is going to switch as the most recent WWB wasn't able to fully transform it.

3) In the far eastern Pacific it looks like a minor WWB is emerging. This should plausibly lead to a decent surfacing of the current EKW. However, that cold pool of water need to go soon. If not, I believe that pool will have the opportunity to counteract the surfacing of the current EKW.

4) Finally, when the easterlies are returning again by early April which your forecast is indicating ASLR it should seriously interrupt the current EKW.. The question then is for how long...

Best, LMV

A bit of contention with points 3 and 4:

TAO buoys do not show any cold pool remaining in the EPAC. This meshes well with sat. figures which showed a big leap in Nino 1-3 SSTs over the past week. If you're referring to the cold pool shown on the CPC's subsurface graphic, keep in mind that the graphic is generated using a model. It does a reasonably good job, but real data is always better.

CFS weeklies and med. range GFS and EC show no resumption of easterly winds west of the dateline anytime soon. They're rather ambiguous on the timing of any particular WWB event, but all agree on the lack of any tradewind flow for a while to come.

Ideally, another decent WWB in 2-4 weeks would help keep the train rolling. But, it appears that the atmosphere is in the process of wholesale response to the latest near-month-long WWB event we just had.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #363 on: March 23, 2015, 09:41:39 PM »
LMV,

First, I concur with Csnavywx's responses (the first attached image from Tropical Tidbits shows that for almost a week now the Nino 1 +2 index has been positive).

Second, the second attached image shows the 250 hPa and the 850 hPa wind patterns for the Walker Cell during a cool phase of the ENSO (upper panel) and a warm phase (lower panel).  This shows that east of the dateline it is acceptable for the trade winds to blow either to the west or the east and the Walker Cell can remain in an El Nino pattern,

Lastly, WWB's are only one factor of whether the Walker Cell flips or not, and the impact of the MJO is not finished on the Pacific atmosphere, and the IOD is now positive; therefore, I think that there is still a good chance (NOAA gives a 50 to 60% of the current El Nino extending to mid-summer) of developing a classical oceanic-atmospheric feedback couple.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #364 on: March 23, 2015, 10:18:24 PM »
ASLR & Csnavywx: thank you for your inputs! I had been looking at the CFS/NOAAs subsurface temperature anomaly graph which ended at March 14. Apparently, the cold pool in the far eastern Pacific have vanished and been replaced by positive anomalies. :) I use to look at Tidbits but had forgotten to do so this time... That's what happens when you're getting older :P

In any case, it'll be interesting to see what the positive westerly wind anomalies will do with the Niño 1+2 index in near term..

Csanvywx: the easterlies I was referring to were the one in the Eastern Pacific. Looking at CFS/NOAAs modelled subsurface anomaly graph showed that the short period of negative easterlies 1-2 weeks ago were strong enough to cancel the surfacing EKWs effect.

Cheers, LMV

Csnavywx

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #365 on: March 23, 2015, 11:25:56 PM »
ASLR & Csnavywx: thank you for your inputs! I had been looking at the CFS/NOAAs subsurface temperature anomaly graph which ended at March 14. Apparently, the cold pool in the far eastern Pacific have vanished and been replaced by positive anomalies. :) I use to look at Tidbits but had forgotten to do so this time... That's what happens when you're getting older :P

In any case, it'll be interesting to see what the positive westerly wind anomalies will do with the Niño 1+2 index in near term..

Csanvywx: the easterlies I was referring to were the one in the Eastern Pacific. Looking at CFS/NOAAs modelled subsurface anomaly graph showed that the short period of negative easterlies 1-2 weeks ago were strong enough to cancel the surfacing EKWs effect.

Cheers, LMV

Ah, I gotcha. I misunderstood. Sorry about that.

For reference on my previous post, here's the latest TAO graphic for subsurface temps:


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #366 on: March 24, 2015, 01:42:11 AM »
Both of the attached plots were issued today by the BoM.  The first plot indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI dropped down to -11.1.  The second plot shows that cloud cover near the Eq. International Dateline is increasing.
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From Lima(Peru)

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #367 on: March 24, 2015, 03:44:25 AM »
Let me be clear:

There is NO longer a cool water pool in this side of the Pacific, as is evident in the two attached SST anomaly maps. The anomalies are 3-4 °C warmer tan average, the warmest ones of the entire tropical Pacific.

Currently in Peru there is a remarkable  heatwave, with temperatures at the highest values since 1998. Flooding is happening in some valleys of our coast.

Time will tell if this a temporary late-summer blip or the beginning of a major ENSO event.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2015, 03:55:29 AM by From Lima(Peru) »

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #368 on: March 24, 2015, 04:21:00 AM »
Lima, Peru.     Have been watching ... And expecting for many months , but it is still amazing to see 4+ degree surface water temperature anomalies. I hope the anchoveta and the fishermen get through this O.K.
 We had very warm water here in Southern Calif. all summer 2014 but the thermocline was fairly shallow so we still had nutrients and healthy fisheries. Sardines have been in decline for a few years however and the cold water PDO doesn't benefit sardine stocks so maybe the shift into a  warm water PDO regime will ( for  sardines ) be a good thing. The sardine fishery here in Calif. is expected to be
very small or maybe shut down altogether for 2015. If you have information on how your fisheries are reacting to the current hot water anomalies I would like to hear about anything you might see in local news. Thanks in advance.     

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #369 on: March 24, 2015, 02:55:06 PM »
All of the attached Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending March 22 2015.  All of the indices are up from last week and the Nino 1 & 2 indices add to the previously cited proof that the cool pool offshore of Ecuador & Peruis now gone.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #370 on: March 24, 2015, 02:57:07 PM »
The attached plots of the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively, were issued today by the BoM for the week ending March 22 2015.  The Nino 3.4 was up from last week and ended at a value of +0.57
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #371 on: March 24, 2015, 03:04:22 PM »
The attached Wheeler Hendon MJO RMM 40-day plot thru March 23 2015, shows that the MJO continues to weaken at the east end of the Pacific
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #372 on: March 24, 2015, 06:40:58 PM »
Both GFS 12z run and ECMWF 00z run support the idea of a tropical cyclone to develope in the next couple of days. The models forecasts the possible TC to track due west at about 10N. this will give some beneficial westerlies and support the current EKW.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center give this disturbance a low chance to develope within 24 hours.

Interesting to see how fast the Niño 1+2 index have changed during the last 2 weeks!

//LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #373 on: March 24, 2015, 08:51:22 PM »
First, the potential cyclone that LVM discusses is shown in the first attached Cyclocane image for March 24 2014 and per Cyclocane: "THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 173.1E  IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 172.2E".  Also, the first image shows a cloud cover formation near the Equatorial International Dateline that is what one would expect if the Walker Cell is already in an El Nino pattern. Furthermore, the first image shows that Cyclone Nathan is as close to Darwin as it is going to get and yet the Long Paddock Station daily SOI for March 24 2015 was  +3.70 (indicating relatively low atmospheric pressure near Tahiti).

Second, the second and third attached images are Earth Wind Maps for March 24 2015 at 250 hPa, and 850 hPa, respectively; which also look to me like they indicate that the Walker Cell is already in an El Nino pattern.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #374 on: March 24, 2015, 11:00:48 PM »
The attached Jason - 2 plot of the sea level anom. on March 20 2015, indicates that a lot of new heat is entering the current EKW from the Western Pacific.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #375 on: March 25, 2015, 01:54:39 AM »
The attached plot was issued today by the BoM & indicates that the 30-day SOI has dropped down to -11.5:
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #376 on: March 25, 2015, 04:51:03 PM »
First, the Long Paddock Station daily SOI for March 25 2015 (Sydney time) was: +1.20 (indicating that the influence of Tropical Cyclone Nathan, near Darwin is dissipating).

Next, the possible tropical that LMV referred to yesterday is shown in the first attached image and per Cyclocane: "THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 172.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 165.2E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF POHNPEI".

Next, the second attached image of the ECMM MJO forecast from March 25 to April 8 2015, shows that the MJO has moving into the Atlantic sector and thus should not be influencing the Pacific sector for some long time to come.

Finally, the third & fourth images are Earth Wind (nullschool) Maps for the 250 hPa and 850 hPa, winds, respectively, for March 25 2015.  To me these maps indicate that the Walker Cell is continuing to stabilize into an El Nino pattern.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #377 on: March 25, 2015, 05:44:36 PM »
While we know that the cool water pool in the Eastern Tropical Pacific shown in the attached NOAA subsurface temp. anom. plot for March 19 2015, is in error (as this cool pool is now warm); nevertheless, I provide this image as it indicates that the core temp. anom. at the heart of the EKW is now at, or above, 5C.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #378 on: March 25, 2015, 08:59:12 PM »
The first attached image shows the U of Albany 850 hPa wind anom forecast through April 1 2015; which shows a moderate WWB until near the end of March.

The second attached Earth surface Wind Map for March 25 2015, shows a tropical depression forming near 5.7N 162E today.

The third attached WunderMap forecast for March 26 2015 shows the tropical depression gaining strength.

It goes without say that this should moderately strengthen our current EKW.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #379 on: March 25, 2015, 09:36:38 PM »
Latest GFS and ECMWF forecast continue to show the possible tropical cyclone to take an almost pure westerly path around 10N during the next 8-9 days before a possible break in the subtropical ridge will steer it on a northwest- to northward path before it reaches Phillippinia..

//LMV

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #380 on: March 25, 2015, 10:22:02 PM »
The first attached image from NOAA shows the sea level anomaly map for March 3, 2015. Note the weak negative sea level anomalies in the far eastern Pacific. Sea level anomalies are mapped using data obtained from satellite altimeters, which are accurate to within few centimeters. The negative anomalies in the far eastern Pacific suggest that there is cooler than normal water at depth in that region. The positive anomalies along the equator between roughly 160E-100W suggest that there is warmer than normal water at depth in that region. As we know, those positive anomalies are associated with the evolving downwelling Kelvin wave. This data confirms that as of March 19th, there were still cool anomalies at depth in the far eastern Pacific. However, these cool anomalies were likely fading fast.

The second attached image shows the TAO plots of subsurface temperature means and anomalies for data ending March 19, 2015. (PLEASE NOTE: these plots show the latitude by depth cross section at 95W between 9S-13N). Data at 95W between 2S-5N have been missing for months now due to issues with 2 of the buoys in that region (one of which is not transmitting data at all). This is important because the TAO plots that many of us normally use to monitor Kelvin wave activity are longitude by depth, which depicts the subsurface profile between 135E-95W and 2N-2S (and between 0-500 meters). With no useful data at 95W between 2N-2S, the longitude by depth plots are filling in the gaps at 95W. Therefore, data in that region is in fact modeled data.

I believe NOAA's subsurface data for March 19th is relatively accurate (based on satellite confirmed data and the fact that SSTA data from March 19th shows cool SSTA in the east Pacific). Some level of cool water at depth was in place in the far eastern Pacific around that time, but that cool water is very likely fading RAPIDLY. I suspect that the recent relaxation of trades east of the Dateline suppressed upwelling in the east Pacific, which resulted in SST's warming. This along with the approaching Kelvin wave are likely snuffing out whatever is left of the cool pool in the far eastern Pacific.

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #381 on: March 25, 2015, 10:27:08 PM »
I don’t know if anyone else has noticed this, but the spatial pattern of global SSTA on March 23, 2015 (top map), is remarkably similar to March 24, 2014 (bottom map). I just thought it would be interesting to share the twins ;). (images courtesy of NOAA's OSPO).

bosbas

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #382 on: March 25, 2015, 10:56:44 PM »
bigB, what actual values represent the colors in the sea level anomaly picture?

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #383 on: March 25, 2015, 11:59:54 PM »
bigB, what actual values represent the colors in the sea level anomaly picture?

As I am posting the attached BoM image of cloud cover near the Eq. International Dateline (which is now as cloudy as it has been in over three years); I thought that I would point-out that the numbers on the iso-contours of the sea level anomaly image that bigB posted are in centimeters.
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DooM

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #384 on: March 26, 2015, 01:50:51 AM »
I don’t know if anyone else has noticed this, but the spatial pattern of global SSTA on March 23, 2015 (top map), is remarkably similar to March 24, 2014 (bottom map). I just thought it would be interesting to share the twins ;). (images courtesy of NOAA's OSPO).

I am new here , I belong to a small country called Uruguay in South America and I 've been reading your comments longtime with great interest and am amazed by his great knowledge , and I must admit I never felt with as sufficient level of knowledge to intervene , even I have that feeling today ..
but I finally decided to take the first step , I hope not bother anyone ,because of my ignorance , If I say some nonsense.

Bigb , says the pattern of anomalies is similar this year than last year.....
but I see differences, for example , greater and more widespread positive anomaly in the dateline than last year . And maybe that was one of the reasons why the atmosphere fall to respond last year ..??

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #385 on: March 26, 2015, 04:26:26 PM »
I don’t know if anyone else has noticed this, but the spatial pattern of global SSTA on March 23, 2015 (top map), is remarkably similar to March 24, 2014 (bottom map). I just thought it would be interesting to share the twins ;). (images courtesy of NOAA's OSPO).

I am new here , I belong to a small country called Uruguay in South America and I 've been reading your comments longtime with great interest and am amazed by his great knowledge , and I must admit I never felt with as sufficient level of knowledge to intervene , even I have that feeling today ..
but I finally decided to take the first step , I hope not bother anyone ,because of my ignorance , If I say some nonsense.

Bigb , says the pattern of anomalies is similar this year than last year.....
but I see differences, for example , greater and more widespread positive anomaly in the dateline than last year . And maybe that was one of the reasons why the atmosphere fall to respond last year ..??

Welcome DooM,

The two SSTA spatial patterns that bigB cited for March 24 2015 and March 23 2015 are indicative of a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern, PDO, and the following data shows that the PDO has been positive since January 2014.  While JISAO has not yet published the PDO for March 2015, I believe it is safe to say that you are very likely correct that the March 2015 PDO value will most likely be more positive that the 0.97 value for March 2014.  Thus while I find bigB's plots very informative, I also agree with you that the magnitude of the positive PDO for 2015 is likely contributing to increase the probability of a classical El Nino event in 2015 as compared to the very weak El Nino event that began in September of 2014.

YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC

2014    0.30    0.38    0.97    1.13    1.80    0.82    0.70   0.67   1.08   1.49    1.72    2.51
2015    2.45    2.30

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Best,
ASLR
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #386 on: March 26, 2015, 04:51:09 PM »
For continuity, I provide the first image of the NCPE MJO forecast from March 26 to April 9 2015, showing the MJO weakening rapidly, as one would expect under strong El Nino conditions.

Next, the second attached image and the following forecast from Cyclocane indicates that our tropical disturbance has a high probability of being a tropical cyclone in less than 24 hours:

"THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N  160.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 160.1E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF POHNPEI.

UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."

Next, the third attached image of the Earth surface Wind Map for March 26 2015, shows that the tropical disturbance is rapidly turning into a tropical cyclone and is actively contributing to a WWB now.

Finally, the fourth attached image of the Earth 250 hPa Wind Map for March 26 2015, shows that the Walker Cell is stabilizing more firmly into an El Nino pattern (at the moment).
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #387 on: March 26, 2015, 05:29:11 PM »
First, as indicated by the following data issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI (with data through March 24 2015) became less negative & moved up to -11.0:

20150223, 20150324,-11.0

Second, the Long Paddock Station daily SOI for March 26 was +2.60.

Therefore, we can expect the BoM 30-day moving average SOI to continue becoming less negative for at least three to five more days:
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #388 on: March 26, 2015, 06:12:40 PM »
Doom,

Welcome to the forum! Thanks for your input! Late March of 2015 is without question remarkably similar to late March of 2014. It wasn’t until about mid March of 2015 that the spatial pattern of global SSTA began to take on remarkably similar appearance to that of 2014. Its true that the ENSO and PDO signals are stronger this year (and there a few other small differences), but I thought that went without saying. Also, if you do some research of the available global SSTA data, it's highly unlikely that you will find any other two years that were this closely related on essentially the same month and day (on a global level). If anyone can, please share them. It would be interesting to see.

EDIT: Dr. Michael Ventrice (who is a leading expert on tropical meteorology) tweeted about the similarities between the 2015 and 2014 tropical pattern. The link leads to his twitter page, the tweet was made on March 19th.

2nd EDIT:
By the way, based on current observations and forecasts, I'm of the opinion that we'll at least reach moderate El Nino conditions (+1.0 to +1.4 deg C above normal in Nino 3.4 region) by about the May-June 2015 time-frame. If WWB activity and current conditions continue to evolve (solid positive atmospheric feed backs develop) through the May-June time-frame (which is when things took a pause last year), then it's very possible that we'll reach strong El Nino conditions (+1.5 to +1.9 deg C above normal in Nino 3.4 region) by late summer/early fall 2015. I'm not ready to use the words “super El Nino” (+2.0 deg C or more above normal in the Nino 3.4 region) yet, but the possibility is definitely there. Hopefully, that should become more clear by June 2015.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice
« Last Edit: March 26, 2015, 08:45:49 PM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #389 on: March 26, 2015, 09:38:21 PM »
The first image shows that NOAA's seasonally uncorrected Nino 3.4 forecast concurs with bigB.

The second image (from March 2015) also by NOAA shows that the warm pool near the equator at 160E is as large as it has been for the indicated record, and this warm water is just waiting for westerly winds to push it into our current EKW.

The third image shows that the Eq. Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Anom (from 180 to 100W) is continuing to increase steadily (although slower than last year; which might be a good thing as it might keep more water need the equator when it reaches Ecuador).

The fourth image shows the Earth TCW (total cloud water) wind map showing a lot of water available to sustain our current El Nino patterned Walker Cell & WWB.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #390 on: March 27, 2015, 04:05:12 PM »
First, the following data issued yesterday by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average moved up to -9.8:

20150224,20150325,-9.8

Second as the effect of Tropical Cyclone Nathan has dissipated (see TC 18P in the first image), the Long Paddock Station daily SOI for March 27 2015 moved down to -14.40.  This means that within a day or two the BoM SOI will continue becoming more negative.

Third, the first attached Cyclocane image and forecast shows that our current tropical depressions TD-04W is continuing to contribute to a moderate WWB event:
Extract: "THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N  160.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 160.1E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF  POHNPEI.


UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."

Finally, the second, third & fourth images are all from Earth nullschool today for the surface wind, 250 hPa wind and the Total Cloud Water, TCW, respectively.  These all indicate that the Walker Cell remains in an El Nino pattern.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #391 on: March 27, 2015, 05:52:19 PM »
The attached U of Albany rainfall rate forecast from March 27 to April 3 2015, is consistent with the idea that the Walker Cell will remain in an El Nino pattern (note the consistent rainfall near the Equatorial International Dateline) at least thru early April.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #392 on: March 27, 2015, 06:58:20 PM »
Tropical storm Mayshak will be steered on a west- to northwesterly path during the next five days and is assumed to become a minimal major hurricane in the end of the forecast period.

In the end of the latest GFS 12z run there is a small possibility of a second tropical cyclone to develope in the Western Pacific around 8N; 150E.

In the Niño 1+2 region there have been a huge increase in the temperature anomaly. Tidbit reported an estimated value of +1,349C. See: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

//LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #393 on: March 28, 2015, 12:16:57 AM »
Precipitable water is the depth of water in a column of the atmosphere, if all the water in that column were precipitated as rain.

The attached Earth nullschool map shows the Total Percipitable Water in the Equatorial Pacific area for March 27 2015
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #394 on: March 28, 2015, 02:43:20 AM »
The following data indicates that 30-day SOI has remained constant at -9.8 (and will most likely now proceed to become more negative):

20150223,20150324,-11.0
20150224,20150325,-9.8
20150225,20150326,-9.8
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From Lima(Peru)

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #395 on: March 28, 2015, 04:59:41 AM »
Here at Lima the heatwave continues.

Severe flooding has affected several regions of the country, including the towns of Chosica and Santa Eulalia, just 45-55 km from Lima. 7 people were killed, the two towns severely damaged, and the Central Highway (that links Lima with the central Andes) was blocked by rocks and mudflows (see map attached).

It is still not clear if this is just a temporary warm anomaly or the beginning of a major El Niño (so far the event is described as "weak"). In effect, the NINO 3.4 is just borderline El Niño, but here we are in the 1.5- 3°C anomaly range (see map of NINO 3 attached from IMARPE, the Sea Institute  of Peru).

Also in Chile an even worse flooding happened yesterday:
14 Years of Rain in 1 Day in Chile
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2944
« Last Edit: March 28, 2015, 05:09:05 AM by From Lima(Peru) »

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #396 on: March 28, 2015, 08:13:40 AM »
Lima and Chile not the only flood stories. All up and down the Andes mountains, east and west sides, floods have been an ongoing story for the last 3 months. Although El Nino has only just been declared and is supposed to be weak the weather on the Andean side of the Pacific which gets little attention as far as harbinger and/or effects of El Nino I would think you would find most locals would be saying it is well and truly ongoing.
Although posted in June 28/2014, it is a very good write up of what South America can expect and it seems it is getting it.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #397 on: March 28, 2015, 03:08:12 PM »
First, our tropical disturbance has been upgraded to tropical storm Maysk (see first attached image), & per Cyclocane: "AT 280000Z, TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WAS LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 154.9E, APPROXIMATELY 694 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS."

Second, the Long Paddock Station daily SOI for March 28 2015 was -17.20 (indicating that the influence of Tropical Cyclone Nathan is still dissipating).

Finally, the second & third images of the 5S-5N wind anomaly forecast plots issued by the U of Albany for March 28 to April 4 2015, for the 850 hPa & 200 hPa, altitudes, respectfully, indicate that the current El Nino pattern of the Walker Cell should weaken for at least the next several days.
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #398 on: March 28, 2015, 08:24:19 PM »
The attached data from NOAA shows that as of March 24th, upper ocean heat content anomalies were continuing to increase in association with the building downwelling Kelvin wave (increasing the chances of reaching at least moderate El Nino conditions by early summer).

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #399 on: March 29, 2015, 03:32:51 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI drifted (fluctuated) up to: -9.7

20150226,20150327,-9.7
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson