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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #400 on: March 29, 2015, 06:39:28 PM »
The daily SOI from the Long Paddock Station today was: -14.10.

Also, the attached Earth nullschool map of the mean sea level pressure in the Pacific shows a pattern favoring El Nino conditions (notice the monsoon trough).
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #401 on: March 30, 2015, 04:16:37 AM »
The following data issued today by BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -10.7:

20150227,20150328,-10.7
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jai mitchell

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #402 on: March 30, 2015, 07:20:06 AM »
Monthly historic SOI shows that 1997-1998 had

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml
1997
 J     F       M    A       M      J      July     A     S       O        N      D
4.1 13.3 -8.5 -16.2 -22.4 -24.1 -9.5 -19.8 -14.8 -17.8 -15.2 -9.1

1998
-23.5 -19.2 -28.5 -24.4 0.5 9.9 14.6 9.8 11.1 10.9 12.5 13.3
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deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #403 on: March 30, 2015, 03:59:32 PM »
The eastern Pacific is warming up rapidly, likely as the EKW begins to surface. The Niño 1+2 regions jumped sharply to 1.2 C, the warmest since late summer 2014, and Niño 3 jumped to 0.6 C. This set up is angling the Pacific towards a more canonical (or classic) El Niño (see attached.)

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
18FEB2015     26.1-0.1     26.7 0.3     27.3 0.5     29.0 1.0
 25FEB2015     26.1-0.1     26.8 0.1     27.5 0.6     29.3 1.2
 04MAR2015     25.8-0.5     26.9 0.1     27.5 0.5     29.3 1.1
 11MAR2015     26.1-0.3     26.8-0.2     27.6 0.5     29.2 1.0
 18MAR2015     26.5 0.0     27.3 0.2     27.8 0.6     29.4 1.2
 25MAR2015     27.4 1.2     27.8 0.6     28.0 0.6     29.3 1.1

deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #404 on: March 30, 2015, 04:45:51 PM »
Maysak is now a category 2 typhoon, the third in what Jeff Masters has highlighted as a "record early start to typhoon season": http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2945

The record frequency of typhoons this early is no perfect predictive factor in how El Niño should come about (since this now exceeds the previous records set in 2005, 1979, and 1955--none of those years ending in an El Niño), but it does increase the odds of one given the continued westerly activity that is pushing substantially warm water from west to east. This, I think, will continue to fuel the EKW as it steams towards the surface of the eastern Pacific. We also know that the Walker Circulation is close to breaking down, with anomalous westerly activity in the lower atmosphere, and anomalous easterly activity in the upper atmosphere.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #405 on: March 30, 2015, 05:23:41 PM »
              Niño3.4   Niño3.4
 Week           SST    SST Anom.
 04MAR2015   27.5   0.5
 11MAR2015   27.6   0.5
 18MAR2015   27.8   0.6
 25MAR2015   28.0   0.6

If I understand it right, this chart of weekly Niño 3.4 numbers (drawn from the chart posted by deep octopus) shows that March will have a Niño 3.4 anomaly of about 0.55 and that a full blown (weak) El Niño will be declared (3 months of 0.5 or more anomaly, with each month being a 3-month average) soon after March ends.  Is this correct?
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #406 on: March 30, 2015, 05:24:50 PM »
As a follow-up to deep octopus's excellent posts, I provide the three attached figures from NOAA's weekly ENSO report issued March 30 2015 (see link):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The first attached image shows the Eq. Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom Evolution, showing (to me) that our current EKW event is developing slightly slower than the 2014 EKW, which to my way of thinking increases the chances of developing a fully coupled oceanic-atmospheric synergy that just missed developing last year.

The second attached image shows that ONI evolution from 1950 to February 2015, indicating (to my way of thinking) the similarities of our current ONI pattern with the patterns that preceded the 82-83 and the 97-98 El Nino events.

The third attached figure shows the CFSv2 (PDF corrected) Nino3.4 forecast, indicating an increasing chance of a strong El Nino event by the boreal Fall of 2015.

Furthermore, the Long Paddock Station daily SOI for March 30 2015 was: -8.40

Also, Tropical Tidbits indicates that both the Nino3 and 3.4 daily value for March 30 2015 was trending upward (possibly due to the recent WWB activity cited by DO).
« Last Edit: March 30, 2015, 05:36:32 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #407 on: March 30, 2015, 05:30:05 PM »
              Niño3.4   Niño3.4
 Week           SST    SST Anom.
 04MAR2015   27.5   0.5
 11MAR2015   27.6   0.5
 18MAR2015   27.8   0.6
 25MAR2015   28.0   0.6

If I understand it right, this chart of weekly Niño 3.4 numbers (drawn from the chart posted by deep octopus) shows that March will have a Niño 3.4 anomaly of about 0.55 and that a full blown (weak) El Niño will be declared (3 months of 0.5 or more anomaly, with each month being a 3-month average) soon after March ends.  Is this correct?

Tor,

Per my understanding of NOAA's threshold (although not necessarily by BoM's definition), after tomorrow we will have an official weak El Nino beginning in Sept 2014; which per the CFSv2 forecast may transition into a classical, fully coupled, Eastern Pacific, type of El Nino sometime this coming summer.

Best,
ASLR
« Last Edit: March 30, 2015, 05:50:38 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #408 on: March 30, 2015, 05:35:30 PM »
Thanks, and thanks for reminding me that NOAA (USA) uses a different threshold than BoM (Australia).
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #409 on: March 30, 2015, 08:47:50 PM »
Maysak was the fourth named storm this year, in 1965 there were five named storms according to JTWC. The El Nino in 1965 peaked at 1,9°C.

jai mitchell

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #410 on: March 30, 2015, 08:53:08 PM »
The eastern Pacific is warming up rapidly

South East Aerosol negative forcing parameters are also in similar decline.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #411 on: March 30, 2015, 09:55:52 PM »
The eastern Pacific is warming up rapidly

South East Aerosol negative forcing parameters are also in similar decline.

As a follow-up to jai's comment, I provide the following linked reference (with a free pdf), which projects the influence of the assumed aerosol forcing reductions for the four RCP scenarios (which probably err on the side of least drama) for the average of the period from 2096 to 2100.  The first attached image shows that the aerosol reductions assumed in the RCP 8.5 scenario results in significant changes in the aerosol optical depth, AOD, over the Tropical Pacific, for Sulfates (SO4), Black Carbon (BC) and Organic Carbon (OC).  The second image shows the high associated increase in surface temperature in East Asia for the RCP 8.5 scenario.  The third and fourth images show the assumed reductions in aerosol components and in the radiative forcing, respectively, for the four difference scenarios.  Unmasking, the negative forcing of our current aerosols will have major impacts on the ENSO behavior and other modeled parameters; which will require more aggressive GHG mitigation than previously assumed (and quit likely more aggressively than indicated by this linked reference).

D. M. Westervelt, L. W. Horowitz, V. Naik, and D. L. Mauzerall (2015), "Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases", Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 15, 9293–9353, doi:10.5194/acpd-15-9293-2015


http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/9293/2015/acpd-15-9293-2015-print.pdf


Abstract: "It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80%by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases.  We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3) to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections.  Up to 1Wm−2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09mmd−1.  Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2mmd−1 precipitation increase, a 7 gm−2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in cloud droplet effective radius. Future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 30–40% of total climate warming by 2100 in East Asia, even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The expected unmasking of global warming caused by aerosol reductions will require more aggressive greenhouse gas mitigation policies than anticipated in order to meet desired climate targets."
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DooM

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #412 on: March 30, 2015, 10:20:25 PM »
The latest satelital estimatións on typhoon Maysak , speaks of a  Categoría 4 storm in saffir simpson scale , with 125kt winds and 929mb of minimum pressure , i think that it will generate more WWB activity , And its possible fruter intesification of the system ( another cat.5 ?)

Storm Type     Storm Name Forecas      Date                                             Wind (m/s)    Pressure
                 
       
TY   04W.MAYSAK   00 hr   03/30/2015   18:00   9.40   143.70   64.38   929 28.22
HU   04W.MAYSAK   12 hr   03/31/2015   06:00   9.90   141.10   69.53      28.10
HU   04W.MAYSAK   24 hr   03/31/2015   18:00   10.50   138.90   72.10   ?   28.13
HU   04W.MAYSAK   36 hr   04/01/2015   06:00   11.20   136.60   72.10   ?   28.18
HU   04W.MAYSAK   48 hr   04/01/2015   18:00   11.90   134.90   66.95   ?   27.83
HU   04W.MAYSAK   72 hr   04/02/2015   18:00   13.10   131.70   56.65   ?   27.48

http://images.remss.com/hurricane/active_storms_sst.nwp.html



Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #413 on: March 30, 2015, 10:22:27 PM »
Maysak has quickly strengthened into a typhoon of category 4  according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center and is expected to eventually become a cat 5 before weakening tomorrow night or wednesday morning... Right now Maysak is at 9,4N according to JTWC. It's possible that Maysak will reach cat 5 before it crosses the 10N latitude.

//LMV

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #414 on: March 30, 2015, 10:56:24 PM »
The attached image shows how ONI values are determined using NOAA's monthly Nino 3.4 index. The presentation is probably not the best (please bear with me), but hopefully it helps a viewer or two better understand how ONI values are determined. The monthly value for March 2015 will likely come in at +0.5 or +0.6, but either way the ONI value for JFM would come in at +0.5. The Monthly Nino 3.4 values are rounded to the nearest tenth. The avg of each three month season is rounded to the nearest whole number tenth. The first link below leads to NOAA's official monthly Nino 3.4 index. If one would like to make sure that the monthly Nino 3.4 index provided in the first link is in fact what NOAA uses to calculate ONI values, then follow the second link and read the last sentence.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_change.shtml
« Last Edit: March 31, 2015, 02:13:08 AM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #415 on: March 30, 2015, 11:30:04 PM »
The attached Earth surface Wind Map from March 30 2015 indicates that Maysak is already too far north to contribute any more to the recent moderate WWB.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #416 on: March 31, 2015, 03:52:10 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -10.7:
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #417 on: March 31, 2015, 05:18:58 AM »
ASLR,

Looks like the weekly IOD and Nino indices plots from the BOM have been released early if you want to post em.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #418 on: March 31, 2015, 04:28:23 PM »
ASLR,

Looks like the weekly IOD and Nino indices plots from the BOM have been released early if you want to post em.

bigB,

Thanks.

The attached Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, were issued today by the BoM for the week ending March 29 2014 and they are mostly bullish (with the Nino 4 fluctuating slightly down).

Best,
ASLR
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #419 on: March 31, 2015, 04:33:39 PM »
The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending March 29 2015.  The first image shows that the Nino 3.4 index was up to +0.71; while the second image shows that the IOD remained essentially neutral.

The third attached plot by NOAA shows that at this time last year the Eq. Pac. Upper Ocean Heat Anom had peaked and was starting to decline, while today this index appears to still be ascending; which hopefully bodes well for the prospects of a classical El Nino event this year.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #420 on: March 31, 2015, 04:59:00 PM »
As I was a little bit slow in getting the BoM weekly surface temperature indices posted I thought that I would add some daily information for those who like to be up to the minute:

The Long Paddock Station daily SOI for March 31 2015 moved slight down to: -8.80

The CDAS daily Nino 3.4 index for March 31 2015 moved up to: +0.633

The first attached image (& report below) is from Cyclocane showing that while Typhoon Maysak is too far north to create a WWB, a new tropical disturbance has formed near 1.1 N 164.6E, which can also be seen in the second attached Earth surface Wind Map for March 31 2015:

Cyclocane Extract: "AT 310000Z, TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N
142.5E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF YAP, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 1.1N 164.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW."

The third attached image shows the Earth Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) Wind Map for March 31 2015, indicating that the monsoon trough should keep the new tropical disturbance relatively close to the equator for the next few days where it has the highest chance of creating a new WWB.

The fourth attached image show the Earth 250 hPa Wind & MSLP Map for March 31 2015, showing that the Walker Cell remains a somewhat weak El Nino pattern.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #421 on: March 31, 2015, 05:13:09 PM »
While I am in the process of updating:

The first attached BoM image shows that the cloud cover near the Eq. International Dateline remains relatively high.

The second image shows the U. of Albany 5S-5N Rainfall rate forecast from March 30 to April 6 2015, showing that the rainfall near the Eq. International Dateline is forecast to be relatively high.

The third and fourth images are the U. of Albany 5S-5N 850 hPa & 200 hPa wind anom forecasts for March 31 to April 7 2015, respectively.  This images support the idea that the current tropical depression near the Eq. Dateline will remain of moderate strength as it moves westward and that the Walker Cell will remain in a weak El Nino pattern through at least April 7 2015.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #422 on: March 31, 2015, 06:12:46 PM »
ASLR: Joint Typhoon Warning Center upgraded Maysak to a Super Typhoon this morning being a cat 5 with maximum sustained wind of 140 knots (160 mph)...

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #423 on: March 31, 2015, 07:49:32 PM »
ASLR: Joint Typhoon Warning Center upgraded Maysak to a Super Typhoon this morning being a cat 5 with maximum sustained wind of 140 knots (160 mph)...

Here is a link to a Mashable article discussing how rare of an event Maysak is:

http://mashable.com/2015/03/31/super-typhoon-maysak-record-western-pacific/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #424 on: March 31, 2015, 09:17:07 PM »
As previously noted, the BoM still has not officially recognized an El Nino conditions and as indicated by both the first attached image of the ENSO dial and the associated ENSO Wrap-Up extract below, the BoM only project a 50% chance for an El Nino (per their definition) to occur by the boreal summer of 2015.

ENSO Wrap-up Extract: "Recent warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean has primed the Pacific for El Niño. However, history has shown El Niño does not always develop from the ocean trends currently observed.

International climate models monitored by the Bureau indicate the central tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to continue to warm, with all models predicting El Niño thresholds will be reached or exceeded by mid-year. However, the accuracy of model outlooks at this time of year, the traditional El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition period, is lower than for outlooks made at other times of the year. Hence, some caution should be exercised when using model outlooks to predict the likelihood of El Niño.

The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño WATCH status. This means that when current observations and model outlooks are considered together, there is about a 50% chance of El Niño developing in the coming months, which is twice the normal likelihood."

Nevertheless, the second attached subsurface temp. anom. plot for March 29 2015 from the TAO (Tropical Atmosphere Ocean) array confirms the Nino 1 & 2 indices that the EKW is already surfacing offshore of South America
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #425 on: March 31, 2015, 09:48:33 PM »
ASLR: Joint Typhoon Warning Center upgraded Maysak to a Super Typhoon this morning being a cat 5 with maximum sustained wind of 140 knots (160 mph)...

Here is a link to a Mashable article discussing how rare of an event Maysak is:

http://mashable.com/2015/03/31/super-typhoon-maysak-record-western-pacific/


The track  and  intesification path of ISA in May of 1997 , and Maysak, now, is pretty similar , the first ( ISA) , is suspected of helping in the developing of el Niño 1997- 1998 , producing great WWB activity.

ISA TRACK , red spot = cat5



ISA PEAK




MAYSAK Track



MAYSAK NOW


DooM

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #426 on: April 01, 2015, 01:09:52 AM »
In the following picture shows, the WWB activity produced by ISA in April of 1997




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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #427 on: April 01, 2015, 01:12:28 AM »
DooM,

Per the latest warning on Typhoon Maysak issued by the JTWC on March 31, at 2100z, hurricane force winds (roughly 64 kt and above) in the southern flank of Maysak's wind field only extend outward up to 40 nautical miles (nm) from the center, and tropical storm force winds (34 kt) only extend outward up to 110 nm from the center. Wind speeds begin to drop off quickly beyond the 34 kt wind field. While Maysak is a record breaking early season CAT 5/super typhoon, it also a relatively small cyclone (size wise) based on the wind field estimates (NOTE: The outflow of a TC in satellite imagery can make it look much larger than it really is at the surface). Each degree of latitude is roughly 60 nm. So if Maysak is currently centered right around or just above 10N (as of the latest warning), tropical storm force winds in the southern flank of Maysak only extend down to about 8N. Any winds that would be of decent benefit to Kelvin wave activity, likely do not extend any further south than about 6N. The forecast suggests that Maysak will not get any closer to the equator as it's projected to continue tracking towards the west-northwest. (NOTE: I'm NOT saying that we need a tropical cyclone's 34 kt wind field to be right on the equator, but generally a tropical cyclone's 34 kt wind field should not be any further north than 5-6N, if one is hoping for a beneficial WWB or westerly winds). If Maysak was a large cyclone, say maybe twice as big, then we would probably see some beneficial westerly winds. In order for westerly wind to aid in any kind of respectable Kelvin wave activity, we typically like to see those winds between 5N-5S and 130E to about the Dateline. This is roughly the area that some refer to as the Kelvin wave generation area. (NOTE: If cross equatorial cyclones were present then it would be a different story as we saw with Bavi and Pam, but those cyclones were also larger in size. It generally seems that when there’s only one cyclone present, it needs to be larger and/or closer to the equator than cross equatorial cyclones to provide beneficial westerly winds).

In short, just because a tropical cyclone is within 10 degrees north or south of the equator, doesn’t always mean it's generating beneficial westerly winds or a WWB (although tropical cyclones within 10N-10S and between 130E and the Dateline typically generate at least some beneficial westerly wind). It's important to monitor a tropical cyclone's wind field. Look at the southern flank in the northern hemisphere and the northern flank in the southern hemisphere. This will allow one to get a good idea of how much beneficial westerly may actually be occurring, but one could also just look at the earth wind map. Sometimes a tropical cyclones size can more important than the strength, as is the case with Maysak.

Thanks,
BigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #428 on: April 01, 2015, 01:19:01 AM »
The following four Nino 3.4 forecasts & summaries were issued today by the BoM, which are rather bullish for a strong El Nino by this boreal mid-summer:
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #429 on: April 01, 2015, 01:33:04 AM »
DooM,

Per the latest warning on Typhoon Maysak issued by the JTWC on March 31, at 2100z, hurricane force winds (roughly 64 kt and above) in the southern flank of Maysak's wind field only extend outward up to 40 nautical miles (nm) from the center, and tropical storm force winds (34 kt) only extend outward up to 110 nm from the center. Wind speeds begin to drop off quickly beyond the 34 kt wind field. While Maysak is a record breaking early season CAT 5/super typhoon, it also a relatively small cyclone (size wise) based on the wind field estimates (NOTE: The outflow of a TC in satellite imagery can make it look much larger than it really is at the surface). Each degree of latitude is roughly 60 nm. So if Maysak is currently centered right around or just above 10N (as of the latest warning), tropical storm force winds in the southern flank of Maysak only extend down to about 8N. Any winds that would be of decent benefit to Kelvin wave activity, likely do not extend any further south than about 6N. The forecast suggests that Maysak will not get any closer to the equator as it's projected to continue tracking towards the west-northwest. (NOTE: I'm NOT saying that we need a tropical cyclone's 34 kt wind field to be right on the equator, but generally a tropical cyclone's 34 kt wind field should not be any further north than 5-6N, if one is hoping for a beneficial WWB or westerly winds). If Maysak was a large cyclone, say maybe twice as big, then we would probably see some beneficial westerly winds. In order for westerly wind to aid in any kind of respectable Kelvin wave activity, we typically like to see those winds between 5N-5S and 130E to about the Dateline. This is roughly the area that some refer to as the Kelvin wave generation area. (NOTE: If cross equatorial cyclones were present then it would be a different story as we saw with Bavi and Pam, but those cyclones were also larger in size. It generally seems that when there’s only one cyclone present, it needs to be larger and/or closer to the equator than cross equatorial cyclones to provide beneficial westerly winds).

In short, just because a tropical cyclone is within 10 degrees north or south of the equator, doesn’t always mean it's generating beneficial westerly winds or a WWB (although tropical cyclones within 10N-10S and between 130E and the Dateline typically generate at least some beneficial westerly wind). It's important to monitor a tropical cyclone's wind field. Look at the southern flank in the northern hemisphere and the northern flank in the southern hemisphere. This will allow one to get a good idea of how much beneficial westerly may actually be occurring, but one could also just look at the earth wind map. Sometimes a tropical cyclones size can more important than the strength, as is the case with Maysak.

Thanks,
BigB


Thanks, BigB ,  for that great explanation ;)... You are right on poiting in the size of the system , I made a ,eyeballing comparasion , and Isa seems to be twice as large as Maysak..

In your opinon, another at least moderate WWB activity  is necessary to increase the chances of a strong el Niño?
« Last Edit: April 01, 2015, 01:42:32 AM by DooM »

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #430 on: April 01, 2015, 02:46:32 AM »
Attached are the TAO plots of subsurface temperature anomalies for data ending on March 30th, 2014 (top plot), and March 30th, 2015 (bottom plot), which shows that the latest downwelling Kelvin wave is steadily increasing (even since the  March 29th data posted by ASLR). I've been monitoring TAO data very closely over the past week and it's been quite interesting to see the latest downwelling Kelvin wave grow at such a rapid pace. It is now comparable to last years massive Kelvin wave (not saying its the same, but it's comparable). It's worth noting that due to the poor condition of the TAO buoy array last year (especially between 155W-110W), the Kelvin wave is likely not depicted accurately. It likely looked more like the Kelvin wave from this year, but slightly stronger and larger (please see NOAA subsurface data from this time last year).

DooM,

Yes, I agree that we need continued WWB activity (in at least the moderate category) to see a strong El Nino. Last year is a good example of what would likely happen if things took a pause in the May-June time frame. What happens in the April, May, and June time-frame will be very important to whether or not we see a strong El Nino by late Summer/early Fall. Warm water needs to continue migrating towards the east, and relaxed trades and more WWB's are a definite requirement for that to occur.

EDIT: By the way, it's great to have another contributor to the thread (and forum). I look forward to seeing more posts from you in the future!
« Last Edit: April 01, 2015, 02:58:28 AM by bigB »

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #431 on: April 01, 2015, 03:58:07 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -11.2:
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #432 on: April 01, 2015, 05:18:06 AM »
I think it is really interesting to see the spread between the Dynamical Model Average (Yellow line) and the Statistical Model Average (Grey line).  Different by almost a full degree during the summer, guess we will find out which was better in about 6 months.

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #433 on: April 01, 2015, 04:17:45 PM »
I think it is really interesting to see the spread between the Dynamical Model Average (Yellow line) and the Statistical Model Average (Grey line).  Different by almost a full degree during the summer, guess we will find out which was better in about 6 months.

That's why it is called the "Spring Barrier" (w.r.t. ENSO forecasts).

In the way of updates: The current tropical disturbance is becoming more organized as indicated in the first attached image of the Earth surface Wind Map for April 1 2015 and as indicated by the second attached image and the associated quote from Cyclocane this disturbance is slowly moving west by northwest.

Quote from Cyclocane: "TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.1N 164.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.6N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI."

The third attached image shows that the Walker Cell remains in a weak El Nino pattern.
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #434 on: April 02, 2015, 12:03:03 AM »
It looks to me like the two attached images of the Earth surface Wind Map (for the afternoon of April 1 2015) and the U of Albany 5S-5N 850 hPa Wind Anom Forecast (for April 1 to April 8 2015), respectively, that the current tropical disturbance will become more organized and will contribute moderate westerlies west of the Dateline for at least the next week.
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #435 on: April 02, 2015, 03:04:59 AM »
The following data issued today by the BoM, indicates that the 30-day SOI drifted down to -11.7:

20150302,20150331,-11.7
« Last Edit: April 02, 2015, 04:16:31 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #436 on: April 02, 2015, 04:17:39 PM »
The first attached image and following associate extract, both from Cyclocane indicate that our old tropical disturbance now has a high probability of becoming a significant tropical cyclone sometime today:

Extract: "THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 160.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI.



UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."

The second, third & fourth attached images are all from the Earth nullschool for April 2 2015, showing: the surface wind map (indicating that the tropical disturbance is generating a moderate westerly anom west of 180); the 250 hPa wind map (indicating that the Walker Cell El Nino Pattern continues to weaken but remains in effect); and the MSLP wind map (indicating that the daily SOI is now positive and the monsoon trough is weakening), respectively.
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #437 on: April 02, 2015, 10:07:05 PM »
The linked reference (with an open access pdf) shows that: "The AMO − SST3.4 time series is shown to form a closed feedback loop system. The coherence between AMO and SST3.4 is statistically significant at intermediate frequencies where the coherent spectra amount up to 55% of the total spectral densities."  Michael Mann has recently shown a similar AMO-Nino 3.4 correlation.

Privalsky, V. (2015), "On studying relations between time series in climatology, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 699-718, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-699-2015.

http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/6/699/2015/esdd-6-699-2015.html

Abstract: "In climatology, relationships between time series are often studied on the basis of crosscorrelation coefficients and regression equations. This approach is generally incorrect for time series irrespective of the crosscorrelation coefficient value because relations between time series are frequency-dependent. Multivariate time series should be analyzed in both time and frequency domains, including fitting a parametric (preferably, autoregressive) stochastic difference equation to the time series and then calculating functions of frequency such as spectra and coherent spectra, coherences, and frequency response functions. The example with a bivariate time series "Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) – sea surface temperature in Niño area 3.4 (SST3.4)" proves that even when the crosscorrelation is low, the time series' components can be closely related to each other. A full time and frequency domain description of this bivariate time series is given. The AMO − SST3.4 time series is shown to form a closed feedback loop system. The coherence between AMO and SST3.4 is statistically significant at intermediate frequencies where the coherent spectra amount up to 55% of the total spectral densities. The gain factors are also described. Some recommendations are offered regarding time series analysis in climatology."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #438 on: April 03, 2015, 03:31:39 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average was +12.1:

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #439 on: April 03, 2015, 05:30:00 PM »
Per the first attached image (& associated extract) from Cyclocane today, our tropical depression has a new name "TD 05W".

Extract: "AT 030000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 156.6E, APPROXIMATELY 281 NM EAST OF CHUUK, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS."

However, as the second attached Earth surface Wind Map from today indicates as TD 05W continues to becoming increasingly organized it keep moving northwest and thus it continues to only contribute moderate westerly equatorial winds west of 180.

The third & fourth Earth nullschool maps from today show the Earth 250 hPa Wind map and the Earth MSLP surface Wind Map, respectively; which show that the Walker Cell remains in a weak El Nino pattern and that the weak monsoon trough continues, respectively.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #440 on: April 03, 2015, 05:37:04 PM »
While I try to limit the number of daily Nino index values that I post, the four attached Nino 1+2, 3, 3.4 & 4 indices, respectively, from Tropical Tidbits today, are all up, with a daily Nino 3.4 value of +0.741; which is bullish for the prospects of developing a classical El Nino event by early summer 2015, as it indicates that the progress of our current EKW is reasonably well sync'd with the atmospheric conditions to promote continued development of El Nino conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #441 on: April 03, 2015, 09:44:17 PM »
The linked paper discusses the importance of the NINO 4 SST with regards to the teleconnection of heat energy from the tropics to the North Pacific; as well as the teleconnection of heat energy to the North Atlantic from the Indian, Pacific and Caribbean tropical regions.

Li, W. and C. E. Forest (2014), "Estimating the sensitivity of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns to SST anomalies using a linear statistical method. J.Climate, 27, 9065-9081. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00231.1.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00231.1

Abstract: "The Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to contain a tropical sea surface temperature (SST)-forced component. This study examines the sensitivity of the wintertime NAO and PNA to patterns of tropical SST anomalies using a linear statistical–dynamic method. The NAO index is sensitive to SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean, the central Pacific Ocean, and the Caribbean Sea, and the PNA index is sensitive to SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The NAO and PNA patterns can be reproduced well by combining the linear operator with the consistent SST anomaly over the Indian Ocean and the Niño-4 regions, respectively, suggesting that these are the most efficient ocean basins that force the teleconnection patterns. During the period of 1950–2000, the NAO time series reconstructed by using SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean + Niño-4 region + Caribbean Sea or the Indian Ocean + Niño-4 region is significantly correlated with the observation. Using a cross-spectral analysis, the NAO index is coherent with the SST forcing over the Indian Ocean at a significant 3-yr period and a less significant 10-yr period, with the Indian Ocean SST leading by about a quarter phase. Unsurprisingly, the PNA index is most coherent with the Niño-4 SST at 4–5-yr periods. When compared with the observation, the NAO variability from the linear reconstruction is better reproduced than that of the coupled model, which is better than the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) run, while the PNA variability from the AMIP simulations is better than that of the reconstruction, which is better than the coupled model run."

See also:
https://www.etde.org/etdeweb/servlets/purl/1170504/1170504.pdf?type=download
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #442 on: April 03, 2015, 09:56:50 PM »
Attached pic from TAO/NOAA shows that the Kelvin wave is surfacing more and that the anomalies in the Eastern Pacific are rising. The anomalies at 50 m depth at 100W are now 4-5C above normal. If this trend continues there is an increasing likelihood that April and May 2015 will be in top 3 of warmest April and May... If positive westerlies continues I think there is a good chance that also June 2015 will be a serious threat to June 1998. Somewhat oddly, June 1998 is the warmest with a huge margin to June 2005 which ranks #2 according to NASA...



Happy Easter!

Best, LMV

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #443 on: April 03, 2015, 10:23:48 PM »
The linked open access reference correlates Stratospheric Sudden Warming events to Central Pacific El Nino events:

Maddalen Iza & Natalia Calvo (2015), "Role of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings on the response to Central Pacific El Niño", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062935


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1002/2014GL062935/


Abstract: "The Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar stratospheric response to Central Pacific El Niño (CP-El Niño) events remains unclear. Contradictory results have been reported depending on the definition and events considered. We show that this is due to the prominent role of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings (SSWs), whose signal dominates the NH winter polar stratospheric response to CP-El Niño. In fact, the CP-El Niño signal is robust when the events are classified according to the occurrence of SSWs and displays opposite response in winters with and without SSWs. In the absence of SSWs, polar stratospheric responses to Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Niño are clearly distinguishable in early winter, in relation to differences in the Pacific-North American pattern. Our results demonstrate that the occurrence of SSWs needs to be taken into account when studying the stratospheric response to CP-El Niño and explain why different responses to CP-El Niño have been reported previously."
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #444 on: April 03, 2015, 10:44:40 PM »
As I have not posted any U. of Albany 850 hPa wind & vorticity forecasts for a long time I attach the forecasts for April 7, 8, 10 & 11, respectively.  These all forecast moderate levels of westerly winds west of 180, over this period, due to vorticity in the Equatorial Southern Hemisphere; which, should help feed both our current oceanic EKW and the current El Nino Walker Cell atmospheric pattern.
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #445 on: April 04, 2015, 03:31:13 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -13.0:
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #446 on: April 04, 2015, 11:14:17 AM »
Per Cyclocane (see first attached image & the following extract) on April 4 2015 TD-05W was upgraded to a tropical storm and is now TS-05W.

Extract: "AT 040000Z, TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 89 NM NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS."

The second, third & forth images are from the Earth nullschool for April 4 2015; showing the surface wind, the 250 hPa wind and the MSLP, respectively. Collectively, these show that: (a) TS 05W is strengthening and is working together with a large low pressure system just east of the Solomon Islands to generate a moderate WWB north of the Solomon Islands; and (b) the El Nino pattern of the Walker Cell remains in effect but is weaker than yesterday.
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #447 on: April 05, 2015, 05:39:50 AM »
The attached plot issue today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -12.4:
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #448 on: April 05, 2015, 12:19:59 PM »
Cyclocane indicates (see attached image & the following extract) that Tropical Storm 05W, now has a name "Haishen" as it continues to track westward near 9N (see the second attached image of the Earth surface Wind Map from today).

Extract: "AT 050000Z, TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAISHEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 99 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS."

The third image for the Earth Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) Wind Map of April 5 2015 shows: (a) the low pressure area north of the Solomon Islands continues to work with Haishen to generate a modest WWB; and (b) as Tahiti is in the Southeast corner of the image, this MSLP map shows that the SOI is becoming increasingly positive today as compared to yesterday.
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #449 on: April 05, 2015, 04:56:08 PM »
The CFS model , is realy crazy now , its predicting an super el niño , for OCT / NOV , with the ensemble mean exceeding anomalies of +2 , and some latest ensembles in 2,5c and 3 C territory  :o

although it must be taken approached with caution because of the  spring  barrier