Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2015 El Niño?  (Read 762021 times)

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #500 on: April 20, 2015, 03:14:40 AM »
The accompanying image issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.7:

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #501 on: April 20, 2015, 04:05:18 PM »
Over the last week, we have seen a continuation of the ongoing warming trend in the equatorial Pacific. Notably, the eastern Pacific is shouldering the trend, with a notable jump in the Niño 1+2 regions (from 0.9 C to 1.3), the Niño 3 region (from 0.5 C to 0.8 C) and the Niño 3.4 region (from 0.7 C to 0.9 C.) The Niño 3.4 region is now at its warmest anomaly since December, but also, the distribution here is more indicative of a classic El Niño than we have seen in months, given that the eastern Pacific is showing anomalously warm water. The Niño 4 region, which I'll note is now at its strongest anomaly since January 2010, is still generally leading the other regions. This in itself suggests to me that the the western warm pool has plenty more heat to spill eastward and feed the EKW that is starting to surface. Normally, as we set up towards a classical/canonical El Niño formation, the Niño 4 region would cool relative to the eastern Pacific regions, giving the equatorial Pacific a fairly even distribution of nominal temperatures. This need not always happen, but it was a prominent feature during the peak of the 1997-1998 El Niño. Bottom line though, the ocean temperature profile is highly supportive of a classical El Niño. See also the attached SST anomaly chart from OSPO at NOAA for April 20, 2015.

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 11MAR2015     26.1-0.3     26.8-0.2     27.6 0.5     29.2 1.0
 18MAR2015     26.5 0.0     27.3 0.2     27.8 0.6     29.4 1.2
 25MAR2015     27.4 1.2     27.8 0.6     28.0 0.6     29.3 1.1
 01APR2015     27.4 1.4     27.9 0.6     28.2 0.7     29.5 1.1
 08APR2015     26.7 0.9     27.9 0.5     28.4 0.7     29.6 1.2
 15APR2015     26.8 1.3     28.3 0.8     28.7 0.9     29.7 1.3
« Last Edit: April 20, 2015, 04:20:47 PM by deep octopus »

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #502 on: April 20, 2015, 05:15:06 PM »
While my now semi-traditional follow-up to DO's insightful post.  The first two images show Eq. Pac. Upper Ocean Heat Anom. while the second two images so Eq Pac SSTA data issued today April 20 2015 by NOAA:

The first image shows the last years data indicating the current Upper Ocean Heat Anom plateau is extending.

The second image shows the Upper Ocean Heat Evolution, showing that our current trend is slightly stronger than last year.

The third image show the Regional Nino data that DO showed but adding background graphics for trends & region locations.

The fourth image the Eq Pac 5S-5N SSTA Evolution for the past year, showing that our current conditions are more favorable for a strong classical El Nino this year as compared to last year.

This is all just color commentary.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #503 on: April 20, 2015, 07:19:27 PM »
Really interesting article from Greg Laden about that study that ASLR posted in #489.
http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/20/an-improved-classification-and-explanation-for-el-nino-new-research/
Q&A to Dr Chen as well at the end, but I'll just qoute Michael Tobis about "the blob".

Quote
Michael Tobis, an expert on atmospheric and ocean systems, suggested to me that “…the real action in climate change is where the warm water goes, not what the wind does. The wind will respond, and may reinforce or mitigate what the ocean does, true. But as the ocean water mass gets further from its recent near-equilibrium, eventually wind stress coupling becomes a smaller deal and the water will go where it will go.” Tobis also notes, and Chen et al acknowledge this may be important, that “the most salient feature in the oceans right now is the large and persistent warm blob in the eastern North Pacific.” This implies (i.e., causes me to speculate or, really, guess) that a warming ocean may shift the balance of what is important in driving, or resulting from, ENSO dynamics. That does not detract from Chen et al’s apparent ability to both classify and explain the differences between El Nino events with WWBs being the key factor.

But do read the rest of the article.

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #504 on: April 20, 2015, 07:26:25 PM »
Sleepy that is interesting as it cuts right to the heart of my question posed to ALSR.  That is what is that giant blob likely to do to the El Nino.  Will it override, enhance, or do nothing to what would be the usual weather patterns associated with an El Nino.

It is asking a lot for speculation, but it is a real interesting question.  It would seem very unlikely that the weather effects of this El Nino will be typical due to the presence of the blob.  But we will see I guess.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #505 on: April 21, 2015, 01:14:36 AM »
Per the following data, and the attached plot, issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.8:

20150320,20150418,-4.8
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #506 on: April 21, 2015, 09:33:11 AM »
Sleepy that is interesting as it cuts right to the heart of my question posed to ALSR.  That is what is that giant blob likely to do to the El Nino.  Will it override, enhance, or do nothing to what would be the usual weather patterns associated with an El Nino.

It is asking a lot for speculation, but it is a real interesting question.  It would seem very unlikely that the weather effects of this El Nino will be typical due to the presence of the blob.  But we will see I guess.

That's partly why I made that quote and I also find it interesting. But I'm just sitting here on the other side of this planet observing as a novice, and as long as we don't know enough (as far as I know) about the PDO we can't do more than speculate. "The blob" is more than the usual PDO configuration though, and I think Michael Tobis expressed it well. The ocean always wins.

Things are changing and the really scary part for me, is if present ENSO (El Annoyingo) and PDO configurations (since the beginning of last year) already are the signs of "the new blue" and a constant El Nino configuration? But I'll still put my money on a large El Nino later this year (as I did last year...), unfortunately torrential rains won't help much for drought, and if the PDO stays positive for another decade or two (which others have speculated about), we might be watching the beginning of something worse.

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #507 on: April 21, 2015, 03:58:34 PM »
Does anyone have a link to a good, recent literature review on the various papers that have been published in the last few years on the future of ENSO/PDO? Or maybe some commentary that was published in a journal? It seems reasonable to conclude that climate change will have some measurable role in the future nature of ENSO (potential strengthening, doubling of frequency of extreme El Niño/La Niña events, etc.) But I agree with Sleepy, that there is much to learn about the Pacific Ocean dynamics and it's hard to move far beyond speculation at this point. PDO was defined in 1997, and then the Indian Ocean Dipole in 1999. Thus these are recent enough that I think we are still in the infancy stages of our understanding. Both are now at least understood to have some teleconnections to ENSO. Perhaps the Atlantic Ocean has a role in ENSO as well. There may (perhaps inevitably) be further internal ocean variabilities still yet to be uncovered. Climate change's dragnet effect on the others, and vice versa, is even more dizzying to comprehend. There are myriad papers out there on PDO/ENSO, so I'm just putting the feelers out for the chance there has been a comprehensive review on this topic. Thanks.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #508 on: April 21, 2015, 04:40:02 PM »
Before returning to DO's question, I provide two posts of my regular update from the BoM (& friends).  The first two images were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending April 19 2015.  The first image shows that the Nino3.4 was +0.93 and thus exceeds BoM's threshold of +0.8 for an El Nino event.  The second image shows that the IOD is positive and increase from last week.

The third image is also from the BoM & shows a portion of the Tropical Dateline cloud cover thru about April 21 2015, indicating that since the end of February there has been a consistent pattern of above seasonal average cloud cover (which help to flip the Walker Cell into an El Nino Pattern), even more so than last year for the same period of time.

The fourth image shows the Earth 250 hPa wind & MSLP Map for April 21 2015, showing that the Walker Cell is currently shifting into an El Nino pattern and that the daily SOI is positive today.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #509 on: April 21, 2015, 04:48:15 PM »
The four attached plots were all issue today by the BoM thru the week ending April 19 2015 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  The first two plots answer LVM question about the trend for the Nino 1 & 2 region and as these plot are both increasingly positive, this clearly indicates that the current EKW is surfacing offshore of South America.  The plot for Nino 3 & 4 are also more positive than last week indicating that the EKW may still gain strength in the future.

In general term these plots support Sleepy's idea that the current El Nino could become a strong event by mid-summer 2015, and may continue to gain strength through early fall 2015; and supporting the idea that the unusually strong PDO (possibly due to global warming) may be contributing to an unusually strong El Nino this year (& possibly with more frequently strong El Nino events in the future).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #510 on: April 21, 2015, 08:39:52 PM »
Does anyone have a link to a good, recent literature review on the various papers that have been published in the last few years on the future of ENSO/PDO? Or maybe some commentary that was published in a journal? It seems reasonable to conclude that climate change will have some measurable role in the future nature of ENSO (potential strengthening, doubling of frequency of extreme El Niño/La Niña events, etc.) But I agree with Sleepy, that there is much to learn about the Pacific Ocean dynamics and it's hard to move far beyond speculation at this point. PDO was defined in 1997, and then the Indian Ocean Dipole in 1999. Thus these are recent enough that I think we are still in the infancy stages of our understanding. Both are now at least understood to have some teleconnections to ENSO. Perhaps the Atlantic Ocean has a role in ENSO as well. There may (perhaps inevitably) be further internal ocean variabilities still yet to be uncovered. Climate change's dragnet effect on the others, and vice versa, is even more dizzying to comprehend. There are myriad papers out there on PDO/ENSO, so I'm just putting the feelers out for the chance there has been a comprehensive review on this topic. Thanks.

While I had hoped to find better references to DO's question, here is a link (with an early access pdf) & abstract for: Fang et al (2014), "The Impact of Global Warming on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Possible Mechanism", ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, VOL. 31, JANUARY 2014, 118–130,  doi:10.1007/s00376-013-2260-7,

http://159.226.119.58/aas/fileup/PDF/2013-6-15.pdf

Abstract: "The response of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to global warming according to the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) and global warming comparison experiments of 11 IPCC AR4 models is investigated. The results show that North Pacific ocean decadal variability, its dominant mode (i.e., PDO), and atmospheric decadal variability, have become weaker under global warming, but with PDO shifting to a higher frequency. The SST decadal variability reduction maximum is shown to be in the subpolar North Pacific Ocean and western North Pacific (PDO center). The atmospheric decadal variability reduction maximum is over the PDO center.
It was also found that oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves play a key role in PDO dynamics, especially those in the subpolar ocean. As the frequency of ocean buoyancy increases under a warmer climate, oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves become faster, and the increase in their speed ratio in the high latitudes is much larger than in the low latitudes. The faster baroclinic Rossby waves can cause the PDO to shift to a higher frequency, and North Pacific decadal variability and PDO to become weaker."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #511 on: April 21, 2015, 11:45:48 PM »
The linked reference discusses new researcher indicating that tropical inter-basin coupling via the Walker Cell (see attached image & caption) can result in longer and better ENSO forecasts.

Chikamoto, Y., A. Timmermann, J.-J. Luo, T. Mochizuki, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, S.-P. Xie, and F.-F. Jin (2015), "Skillful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability", Nature Communications, 6:6869, doi: 10.1038/ncomms7869

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150421/ncomms7869/abs/ncomms7869.html

Abstract: "Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation."

Captions: "This image shows inter-basin coupling as a cause of multi-year tropical Pacific climate predictability: Impact of Atlantic warming on global atmospheric Walker Circulation (arrows). Rising air over the Atlantic subsides over the equatorial Pacific, causing central Pacific sea surface cooling, which in turn reinforces the large-scale wind anomalies. Courtesy: Yoshimitsu Chikamoto"

See also:

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/long-term-pacific-climate-variations-predictable.html
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #512 on: April 22, 2015, 12:55:22 AM »
Per the following data & attached image issued to by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.8 (note that the SOI is the most volatile ENSO index and while this index nominally indicates neutral ENSO conditions, we are officially in a weak El Nino condition at the moment):

20150321,20150419,-3.8
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #513 on: April 22, 2015, 04:37:39 PM »
ASLR,

Thanks for digging. I wasn't sure how much would be out there. The Fang study you found is a helpful start all the same. I did happen across a white paper published by NOAA around 2014 which goes into a good synopsis on ENSO characteristics, history, and predictability. Apologies if this has been posted previously (a search did not turn this up):

Kessler, W.S., Lee, T., Collins, M., Guilyardi, E., Chen, D., Wittenberg, A.T., Vecchi, G., Large, W.G. , and Anderson, D.: "White Paper #3 – ENSO Research: The overarching  science drivers and requirements for observations" 

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/PDF/kess4225/kess4225.pdf

Followers of this thread may also be interested in the papers by this team of scientists whose findings you may have heard (on the future frequency of more extreme El Niño, La Niña, and Indian Dipole events):

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n2/full/nclimate2492.html

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v510/n7504/abs/nature13327.html

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n2/full/nclimate2100.html

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #514 on: April 22, 2015, 04:54:07 PM »
Kesslers file cabinet is one of my oldest links, has been very useful for me.
http://faculty.washington.edu/kessler/figures.html

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #515 on: April 22, 2015, 05:48:09 PM »
The first attached image shows NOAA's GFS Ensemble MJO forecast from April 22 to May 6 2015; which shows a weak MJO returning directly to the International Dateline (180) beginning around April 26 to about April 30.  While the forecast is for a weak MJO this event will likely trigger the 850hPa Westerly Wind Anom. U. of Albany forecast from April 22 to April 29 shown in the second attached image.  While this is a relatively weak event, it could help flip the Walker Cell into a more permanent El Nino pattern.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

icefest

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 258
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #516 on: April 22, 2015, 11:20:45 PM »
That's a big wwb that's forecast. The biggest in quite some time. I really hope it ends up succeeding.
Open other end.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #517 on: April 23, 2015, 12:40:17 AM »
The following data and the attached plot were issued today by the BoM & indicate that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.2:

20150322,20150420,-4.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #518 on: April 23, 2015, 02:31:10 AM »
The attached OSCAR data centered on April 22, shows that the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) is flowing stronger than normal from west to east (which can easily be spotted by the red and orange arrows just north of the equator), while the South Equatorial Current (SEC) is for the most part flowing weaker than normal from east to west (other than a few small anomalous patches such as the one right on the equator between 160W-150W). This pattern is relatively favorable to El Nino conditions as it mostly supports the migration of warm surface water from west to east (especially by way of the NECC). Based on recent observations and forecasts of equatorial Pacific zonal winds, I suspect that the NECC and SEC will only become more favorable to El Nino conditions during the next few weeks. Also, the core of the current downwelling Kelvin wave should be surfacing off the Galapagos Islands and coast Ecuador during May. All these factors coming together at essentially the same time should promote further (and pretty noticeable) warming of SST's (and therefore SSTA) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (at least during the next several weeks).

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #519 on: April 23, 2015, 06:24:00 AM »
IMD's first long range monsoon forecast for 2015.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/pressrelease_nwfc.pdf

Article from the Times of India.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Met-forecasts-below-normal-monsoon-at-93/articleshow/47021220.cms
Quote
The IMD forecast spells further bad news for the farm sector which has had poor back-to-back kharif and rabi seasons. Harsh Vardhan said there was no reason to panic, as government agencies were prepared to take all necessary measures to deal with the below normal rainfall situation.
--
In April last year, facing a similar situation of a growing El Nino, IMD had predicted 'below normal' monsoon with 95% rainfall. The monsoon eventually produced 88% rains in the June-September, making 2014 a drought year (IMD prefers to call below 90% rains as 'deficient' monsoon).


AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #520 on: April 24, 2015, 01:57:28 AM »
The following data and attached plot were issued today by the BoM & indicate that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.9:

20150323,20150421,-3.9
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Siffy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 179
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #521 on: April 24, 2015, 07:19:22 PM »
The following data and attached plot were issued today by the BoM & indicate that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.9:

20150323,20150421,-3.9

Forgive my ignorance could you explain what this graph signifies exactly?

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #522 on: April 24, 2015, 10:53:08 PM »
Siffy,

The SOI gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Nino or La Nina events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using Sea Level Pressure (SLP) differences between Tahiti and Darwin Australia. Sustained negative SOI values of -8 or below over long durations (such as several consecutive months) often indicate El Nino episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of SST's across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific trade winds. Sustained positive SOI values of +8 or above over long durations are typical of a La Nina episode. They are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and cooler SST's across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It should be noted that fluctuations/swings of the SOI can be associated with the passage of tropical systems near Darwin or Tahiti and are common during the first quarter of the year. Daily fluctuations are often associated with daily or weekly weather. Also, sustained negative SOI values over short durations (such as a few weeks) can be symptomatic of the active phase of the MJO. Sustained positive SOI values over short durations can be symptomatic of the inactive phase of the MJO. These fluctuations/swings do not always reflect the start of a long term trend. The SOI is very volatile, but is a useful ENSO indicator nonetheless.

Siffy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 179
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #523 on: April 24, 2015, 11:12:16 PM »
Siffy,

The SOI gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Nino or La Nina events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using Sea Level Pressure (SLP) differences between Tahiti and Darwin Australia. Sustained negative SOI values of -8 or below over long durations (such as several consecutive months) often indicate El Nino episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of SST's across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific trade winds. Sustained positive SOI values of +8 or above over long durations are typical of a La Nina episode. They are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and cooler SST's across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It should be noted that fluctuations/swings of the SOI can be associated with the passage of tropical systems near Darwin or Tahiti and are common during the first quarter of the year. Daily fluctuations are often associated with daily or weekly weather. Also, sustained negative SOI values over short durations (such as a few weeks) can be symptomatic of the active phase of the MJO. Sustained positive SOI values over short durations can be symptomatic of the inactive phase of the MJO. These fluctuations/swings do not always reflect the start of a long term trend. The SOI is very volatile, but is a useful ENSO indicator nonetheless.

Thank you, the explanation is much appreciated. :)

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #524 on: April 24, 2015, 11:26:06 PM »
I also thank bigB on another great explanation of the SOI.

In this regards, the following data and first attached image issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has fluctuated back down to -4.3:

20150324,20150422,-4.3

Additionally, NOAA issued the second and third attached images of the April 18 2015 Eq. Pac Subsurface Temp Anom, and the circa April 24 2015 Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively; and both of these last two images indicate that the EKW remains strong while is continues to surface offshore of Ecuador.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #525 on: April 25, 2015, 12:22:39 AM »
Wind reanalysis data suggests a sustained weakening of the trade winds was in effect over the last week. The vector wind profile in the first attachment shows the westerly activity broadly across the equatorial Pacific. The second attachment features the zonal wind data, which suggests strong westerly activity in the lower atmosphere, and strong easterly activity in the upper atmosphere. These again point to how the Walker Circulation is apparently breaking down.

The third attachment shows us a rare late April field of warm equatorial waters throughout. Not a single region is below average. The headstart that 2015 has on virtually every El Niño year at this point in time is unmatched since 1987. A cautionary tale of a warm streak in April/May 1993 that failed to materialize, however, does ground oneself. Still, if I were a betting man, El Niño's gears are shifting up to moderate conditions over the next few weeks. From there, things will get interesting.

From Lima(Peru)

  • New ice
  • Posts: 15
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #526 on: April 25, 2015, 04:50:44 AM »
This is awesome.

The sea level anomaly in the Tropical Pacific, according to AVISO, is approaching the levels of the peak 1997-1998 El Niño. (About 20 cm above average)

This is surprising since the event is only at its early stages.


From Lima(Peru)

  • New ice
  • Posts: 15
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #527 on: April 25, 2015, 05:00:57 AM »
More images from AVISO.

The first attachment is the March 1997 sea level anomaly map

The second is the March 2015 sea level anomaly map (is a lot bigger now than 18 years ago)

The third, given for reference,  is the April 1997 sea level anomaly map (still smaller than the March 2015 one).

What do you think?

blaze202

  • New ice
  • Posts: 1
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #528 on: April 25, 2015, 06:16:12 AM »
Before I share my thoughts, I really want to thank AbruptSLR, bigB, and deep octopus for their excellent work in sharing information on the development of El Nino. This forum is nothing without people like you; keep up the fantastic work!

In regards to the images posted by From Lima(Peru), there are certainly big differences in the ocean ,especially in the ocean temperature gradient between the Western and Eastern Pacific. Currently, the Western pacific is much warmer than it was in March of the 1997-1998 event.  A strong temperature gradient is more conductive for WWB and ultimately the continued development of the El Nino. This was one of the major issues last year. However, things are looking better this year.

Note: This is assuming, sea level heights correlate with oceanic temperature.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2015, 08:34:59 AM by blaze202 »

Pmt111500

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #529 on: April 25, 2015, 08:29:56 AM »
More images from AVISO.

What do you think?

looks pretty notable even given the general sea level rise in almost 20 years (presuming images refer to a common standard).

Michael Hauber

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 168
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #530 on: April 25, 2015, 12:37:51 PM »
More images from AVISO.

The first attachment is the March 1997 sea level anomaly map

The second is the March 2015 sea level anomaly map (is a lot bigger now than 18 years ago)

The third, given for reference,  is the April 1997 sea level anomaly map (still smaller than the March 2015 one).

What do you think?

Global sea level rise since 1997 is getting close to 6 cm, which is pretty big compared to the scale on those images.

TAO Triton track data on the amount of warm water in the Pacific.  According to this data the Western Tropical Pacific is currently about 0.4 degrees above average (top 300 meters).  During April 1997 it was 0.8 degrees above average.  Considering the world is warmer today than in 1997, then we are currently a long way behind 1997 (at least by this measure).
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

anthropocene

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 128
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #531 on: April 25, 2015, 03:04:56 PM »
This is awesome.

The sea level anomaly in the Tropical Pacific, according to AVISO, is approaching the levels of the peak 1997-1998 El Niño. (About 20 cm above average)

This is surprising since the event is only at its early stages.

If I am reading the graphs right, the sea level peaked in 1997 - i.e. in the early stages of the 1998 el-nino. So I don't see why this is surprising. Since el-nino starts with heating (and low pressure?) in the western pacific then this matches what would be expected.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #532 on: April 25, 2015, 05:06:22 PM »
For those who would like a different style of AVISO sea level trend chart (also showing the recent spike in sea level to which the current El Nino is contributing) I attached the accompanying chart with data thru Feb 18 2015.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Csnavywx

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 572
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 82
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #533 on: April 25, 2015, 06:16:23 PM »
More images from AVISO.

The first attachment is the March 1997 sea level anomaly map

The second is the March 2015 sea level anomaly map (is a lot bigger now than 18 years ago)

The third, given for reference,  is the April 1997 sea level anomaly map (still smaller than the March 2015 one).

What do you think?

Global sea level rise since 1997 is getting close to 6 cm, which is pretty big compared to the scale on those images.

TAO Triton track data on the amount of warm water in the Pacific.  According to this data the Western Tropical Pacific is currently about 0.4 degrees above average (top 300 meters).  During April 1997 it was 0.8 degrees above average.  Considering the world is warmer today than in 1997, then we are currently a long way behind 1997 (at least by this measure).

I think this had more to do with the timing of a decently strong WWB in April 1997, which caused a spike in UOHC in that region. The trades resumed in May 1997, causing a significant cooling in that area. Later, in June '97 another WWB centered much further west reinforced the pattern already in place.

This time around, we've only had weak-moderate westerly anomalies in the same time period. However, at least the first part of May looks to play out differently than 1997 in the fact that the westerly anomalies do not look to subside over the WPAC like they did then.

I agree in questioning using a direct comparison of the msla charts (as you did above), due to global sea level rise from the average 1993-2013 period used there. It would be interesting to see a detrended version of that data. I suspect they would look pretty similar in strength at this point.

DooM

  • New ice
  • Posts: 9
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #534 on: April 25, 2015, 06:51:52 PM »
More images from AVISO.

The first attachment is the March 1997 sea level anomaly map

The second is the March 2015 sea level anomaly map (is a lot bigger now than 18 years ago)

The third, given for reference,  is the April 1997 sea level anomaly map (still smaller than the March 2015 one).

What do you think?

Global sea level rise since 1997 is getting close to 6 cm, which is pretty big compared to the scale on those images.

TAO Triton track data on the amount of warm water in the Pacific.  According to this data the Western Tropical Pacific is currently about 0.4 degrees above average (top 300 meters).  During April 1997 it was 0.8 degrees above average.  Considering the world is warmer today than in 1997, then we are currently a long way behind 1997 (at least by this measure).

I think this had more to do with the timing of a decently strong WWB in April 1997, which caused a spike in UOHC in that region. The trades resumed in May 1997, causing a significant cooling in that area. Later, in June '97 another WWB centered much further west reinforced the pattern already in place.

This time around, we've only had weak-moderate westerly anomalies in the same time period. However, at least the first part of May looks to play out differently than 1997 in the fact that the westerly anomalies do not look to subside over the WPAC like they did then.

I agree in questioning using a direct comparison of the msla charts (as you did above), due to global sea level rise from the average 1993-2013 period used there. It would be interesting to see a detrended version of that data. I suspect they would look pretty similar in strength at this point.


The Post of  "From Lima(Peru)"  have a graph of detrended MSLA data ..



You can see the origin of that data and graph. here : http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/el-nino-bulletin.html

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #535 on: April 25, 2015, 07:13:24 PM »
Latest NOAA forecast for U850 shows the possibility of a moderate to strong WWB emerging just west of the Dateline by the beginning of May which may last for 3 weeks. This should reinforce the current EKW. The aber is whow the easterlies will behave... NOAA forecast shows a possibility of a at least temporary reactivating of the easterlies in the far EPAC.

The last couple of days in April should be dominated by a continued westerly flow across most of the Pacific basin.

Se more at: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/

Best, LMV

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #536 on: April 25, 2015, 09:12:19 PM »
The attached TAO data show monthly subsurface temp anomalies for May through December of 1997 (first attachment) and zonal wind for January through December of 1997 (second attachment). I very strongly believe that we need another WWB by May (or maybe early June at the latest) to keep up with the 97/98 El Nino. If not a WWB, at least a complete breakdown or reversal of the Walker circulation, resulting in a major relaxation of Pacific trade winds. Warm water associated with the western Pacific warm pool needs to continue migrating towards the east, not just on the surface but on the subsurface as well (NOTE: There's still plenty of warm water in the western Pacific. Just look at any recent subsurface data showing actual temps, not anomalies). In order to keep cool upwelling suppressed, warm subsurface water needs to steadily replace warm water that’s surfacing in the eastern Pacific (associated with the downwelling Kelvin wave). This is not to say that El Nino conditions will fade if this doesn’t occur, just that an El Nino comparable to the strength of the 97/98 event will become much less likely (NOTE: Keeping last year in mind, if the cool upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave is allowed to propagate east it could disrupt the warming trend). We should have a better idea as to whether or not we'll see a very strong or super El Nino by about the June time-frame. As I've mentioned before, as it stands right now, I believe that we'll at least reach moderate El Nino levels by the May-June time-frame, but the real question becomes whether or not those conditions will continue to persist or even strengthen beyond that time. 

Blaze202,

Thanks for the kind words!

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #537 on: April 26, 2015, 02:07:17 AM »
The attached image comes from Surfline.com and shows the LOLA forecast of wind speed (m/s) and direction for May 5-7th. The last few runs from LOLA have suggested some sort of WWB activity (in about the 7-9 m/s range) starting up in early May associated with a pair of cross-equatorial low pressure systems. This would be inline with the CFSv2 forecast mentioned by LMV. It'll be interesting to see if this remains in the forecast in the coming days. Something to monitor.

1st NOTE: Don't mind the red lines, they're there to show the surfer whether or not wind or swell is aimed along a favorable path to their location (they're referred to as great circle paths). There's no way to remove them. 

2nd NOTE: Many may not have heard of the LOLA forecast model as it's only available to paying customers at Surfline.com. The LOLA weather/wave model was designed by Surfline's own science team and the following is their basic description of the LOLA model to the layman:

“LOLA is a combination of many things. She's a computer model that crunches data under the Wavewatch III model algorithms. By using empirical evidence gained from more than 40 years of surf forecasting, LOLA tweaks the Wavewatch III data. She gathers real-time data from offshore buoys to measure wave pulses from storms around the world every hour. She taps into orbiting satellites to measure hurricane-force winds and tremendous wave heights in the heart of raging storms when huge ships are running for cover. She computes near-shore wave animations measuring detailed wave heights along the coast, taking into account how swells are distorted by offshore islands and the continental shelf. LOLA creates detailed weather charts for surfers who want to figure it out for themselves. And she will become whatever else we want her to be as we use her to score more waves, more often”.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #538 on: April 26, 2015, 04:37:39 AM »
For some reason the attached images (plus DO's excellent posts) give me hope that the Walker Cell will transition into and stay in an El Nino pattern for some time to come.

Per the first attached image issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.1

The second image was also issued today by the BoM & shows that the cloud cover near the Equatorial Dateline is increasing.

The third attached image issued today by the U of Albany forecasts that, from April 25 to May 2 2015, a moderate westerly wind anom will occur at 850 hPa near the Equatorial Dateline.

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #539 on: April 26, 2015, 05:10:22 AM »
The attached image from Kyle MacRitchie's website shows the CFS tropical wave projections for May 4th. The CFS model currently suggests that we may see some level constructive interference between a very very weak active phase of the MJO, a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW), and an Equatorial Rossby Wave (ER). If this were to develop as advertised, we would likely see a WWB associated with TC activity (or at least low pressure systems). It's still too early to believe this forecast just yet, but it's certainly got my attention, especially with other models suggesting WWB activity as well. This would likely be of benefit to the walker circulation transitioning as well.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #540 on: April 26, 2015, 10:34:55 AM »
The first two attached images are old NASA graphics & the first image shows the change in water distribution on land indicating a significant transfer of water from the ocean to the land via precipitation (as determined by the GRACE satellite), while the second shows that the timing of this water transfer correlates with the 2010 La Nina & a 6mm drop in global mean sea level.   


The third attached image from the linked University of Colorado website correlates the detrended global mean sea level vs the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) thru May 29 2014; which also illustrates that the 2010 La Nina matches the 6mm drop in global mean sea level.


http://sealevel.colorado.edu/


I repost these old images in order to illustrate that the current upward (over 2mm) spike in the detrended global mean sea level shown by AVISO (see Replies # 534 & 536) is not due to the heat of the current EKW (which is just a redistribution of heat within the ocean); but rather is associated with droughts on land (like the Southwest USA, Brazil & Indonesia) & the increase rainfall in the ocean due to the SPCZ at the start of this year (2015).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #541 on: April 26, 2015, 06:40:31 PM »
As a status report follow-up to bigB's excellent Reply #541 that: "The CFS model currently suggests that we may see some level constructive interference between a very very weak active phase of the MJO, a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW), and an Equatorial Rossby Wave (ER)."

The first image shows that the GFS ensemble MJO forecast from April 26 to May 10, indicates that a weak active phase of the MJO continues on track directly towards the Equatorial International Dateline, arriving by May 2; while the second attach image from the U of Albany 850 hPa wind anom. forecast from April 26 to May 3 2015, shows a WWB (by May 2 2015) just west of the Dateline; which supports the prospect of constructive interfaces from a weak MJO, a CCKW & an ER.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #542 on: April 27, 2015, 04:07:12 AM »
The attached plot was issued today by the BoM & indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #543 on: April 27, 2015, 03:39:05 PM »
With SST anomalies above 1 C simultaneously in every region for the first time in years, an opportunistic El Niño should capitalize on this luck of broadly warm water. The key Niño 3.4 region warmed to 1.0 C, the warmest since November. The attachment of OSPO's SST anomaly chart reveals this condition. If the 850 hPa zonal wind forecasts posted by bigB and ASLR bear fruit, May should prove an important month for the development towards a moderate El Niño.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 18MAR2015     26.5 0.0     27.3 0.2     27.8 0.6     29.4 1.2
 25MAR2015     27.4 1.2     27.8 0.6     28.0 0.6     29.3 1.1
 01APR2015     27.4 1.4     27.9 0.6     28.2 0.7     29.5 1.1
 08APR2015     26.7 0.9     27.9 0.5     28.4 0.7     29.6 1.2
 15APR2015     26.8 1.3     28.3 0.8     28.7 0.9     29.7 1.3
 22APR2015     26.7 1.5     28.4 1.0     28.7 1.0     29.9 1.3


Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #544 on: April 27, 2015, 04:44:39 PM »
Calbuco is still restless according to the reports here.
http://www.sernageomin.cl/volcan.php?iId=3

If it erupts again we might have an El Nino booster.
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/04/how-do-volcanic-eruptions-influence-the-climate/

Quote
"Based on eruptions of other Chilean volcanoes, like Chaiten or Puyehue Cordon Caulle, huge emissions of sulfur dioxide are not expected, or supported by the satellite data."

Quote
Volcano eruptions can influence more than just temperature. Recent research suggests eruptions can affect the position of the  Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a huge belt of low pressure that is the main source of rain for much of Africa.

This has implications for weather in the Atlantic Ocean, as  Dr Doug Smith, who leads decadal climate prediction research at the UK Met Office, tells Carbon Brief:

"If the eruption occurs predominantly in one hemisphere then we would expect the ITCZ to shift away from that hemisphere. So in this case, the ITCZ could shift northwards, which would tend to promote rainfall in the Sahel but also enhance Atlantic hurricane activity."

The impacts could also reach the Pacific Ocean and affect the El Niño event that's currently brewing there, says Smith:

"There are also signs that volcanoes may promote El Niño conditions for a year or two, possibly followed by a tendency towards La Niña. There already looks to be an El Niño building, so maybe this volcano would enhance that?"

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #545 on: April 27, 2015, 04:57:51 PM »
Thanks Sleepy, that is rather fascinating and a plausible effect. I guess it will depend on the ultimate VEI of Calbuco should this culminate to a climax.

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #546 on: April 27, 2015, 05:27:37 PM »
Yes it is. I kind of wrote off Calbuco after the activities last week, but if it still shows unrest then it's worth keeping an eye on. It has produced VEI 5's in the past, a long time ago though.
http://www.volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=358020&vtab=Eruptions

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #547 on: April 27, 2015, 08:07:47 PM »
If the 850 hPa zonal wind forecasts posted by bigB and ASLR bear fruit, May should prove an important month for the development towards a moderate El Niño.

As a follow-up to DO's excellent summary of NOAA's weekly ENSO report, I provide:

The first image from the U of Albany's 850 hPa wind anom forecast from April 27 to May 4, 2015; indicating that the forecast WWB near the Dateline appears to be strengthening.

The second & third images issued today by NOAA show the yearly evolutions for the Eq. Pac. of the: (a) Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the (b) 5S-5N SSTA; respectively; which both indicate that the current ocean condition supports a possibly strong El Nino event with a greater probability than last year at this time.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #548 on: April 27, 2015, 10:27:17 PM »
NOAAs forecast continues to be highly interesting as it shows stronger westerlies by next week. This WWB could be a moderate one which should do a great job in pushing more warm water eastward. the main question right now is whether any trade winds will interrupt the surfacing of EKW or not.. NOAAs forecast calls for moderate EWB ("Easterly Wind Burst") by week 3 which may inteerrupt the EKW surfacing.

Ps. "EWB" - my homemade vocabular  ::) ;D

//LMV

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 81
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #549 on: April 27, 2015, 11:30:35 PM »


Has CFSv2 forgotten how to predict anything other than strong El Nino? Not through May barrier but every model reaching +1.7  ???