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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #700 on: May 21, 2015, 06:09:17 PM »
In the Eastern North Pacific (EPAC), 2015's first area of invest for potential formation of a tropical cyclone have been declared by NOAA: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

This invest has 0% chance to develope during the next 48 hours and approximative 30% chance to do so in the next 5 days. The invest is currently located at about 9N, 118W. I don't think this will do much to strengthen westerly anomalies in this region, do you guys? :)

//LMV

Csnavywx

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #701 on: May 21, 2015, 06:29:10 PM »
It certainly can't hurt, LMV. The broad, elongated circulation around that monsoon trough/low is imparting some outright westerly winds in the 0-5N area and weakening the trades over a much larger area. The monsoon trough/ITCZ is progged to remain active for some time in that area, keeping trades weak or nonexistent over a decent area for a while.

As BigB mentioned in an earlier post however, we will need another strong summertime WWB to carry the momentum into the more favorable fall period. 1997 had strong WWBs in March/April and June with lulls and some reassertion of the trades in May and July. This year has seen strong WWBs in March and May with a weak "lull" in April when the westerly anomalies were simply weaker, so we're in decent shape so far. A month of easterly anomalies could still sink the boat though.

deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #702 on: May 21, 2015, 06:44:20 PM »
In the first attachment, another round of westerlies is forecast to be underway just east of the dateline, with weak westerlies to weak easterlies around the dateline and points west for the next week.

In the second attachment, I show the zonal wind reanalysis for the last seven available days which suggests that low level westerly/upper level easterly activity was of moderate-to-strong value across the Pacific basin.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2015, 07:21:21 PM by deep octopus »

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #703 on: May 21, 2015, 09:28:22 PM »
In a smoking fresh update from National hurricane Center there are now 2 invests in the Eastern North Pacific(!) The first invest located at about 7N, 135W has a rough 50% chance to develope during the next 5 days as it slowly moves to northwest.

The second invest is still located at about 9N, 120W. while the odds for tropical cyclone formation the next 48 hours remains at near 0%, the odds for formation during the next 5 days have been raised to 40%..

Two "twin cyclones" close to each other would certainly don't hurt in giving some beneficial westerly winds even if they are quite far located north of the Equator..

Will be very interesting to watch this the next couple of days! :D

//LMV

deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #704 on: May 21, 2015, 10:30:08 PM »
LMV, looks like the zonal wind forecasts by Univ of Albany are incorporating these invest developments into the model, particularly the first invest at 135 W. Looks fairly significant.

I'm also attaching the OSPO SST anomaly chart for May 21, which is showing lots of orange and red tints searing across the ocean now.

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #705 on: May 22, 2015, 04:16:05 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BOM on May 21th, the 30 day avg SOI has increased slightly to -16.7.


deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #706 on: May 22, 2015, 05:59:59 PM »
Using the CDAS data given, the far eastern Pacific SST anomalies are sharply expressed in the first attachment. The second attachment shows the downwelling EKW which is surfacing and contributing to this warmth. The eastern Pacific should see a warming trend as the EKW surface over the next few weeks.

deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #707 on: May 22, 2015, 06:20:40 PM »
Attached now is the updated IRI/CPC ENSO Predictions Plume by the University of Columbia, which shows the dynamical models average showing a strong El Niño by the northern autumn and weakening to a moderate El Niño entering 2016. NASA, NCEP CFS, ECMWF, and JMA are the most aggressive plumes, with a very strong El Niño being predicted (between 2.6 and 2.8 C during September-November 2015.)

As we are approaching the month of June and leaving the "spring barrier", we find that modeling skills should begin to improve.

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #708 on: May 22, 2015, 09:20:03 PM »
To reinforce DO's post, the attached data from NOAA shows that as of May 18th, equatorial upper ocean heat content anomalies were leveling off due to weak subsurface warming near the Dateline associated with the WWB that occurred during early/mid May. This indicates that the downwelling Kelvin wave in the Eastern equatorial Pacific is at least temporarily being reinforced.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #709 on: May 22, 2015, 10:52:26 PM »
I can help you guys! :)

Our 2 invests have continued to develope and latest analysis from NHC have sharply raised the odds for formation of TC.

Invest 1: located at about 10N, 125W. 50% chance to develope the next 48 hours and an 80% chance to do so during the next 5 days.

Invest 2: located about 7N, 135W. 40% chance to develope the next 48 hours and a 70% chance to do so during the next 5 days.

//LMV

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #710 on: May 23, 2015, 03:34:34 AM »
This is my new favorite tool for monitoring daily SSTA. It's from NOAA's Coral Reef Watch and combines daily SSTA data with Google Maps (see attached example). One can zoom in, out, and all around. There are other data options available as well. Check it out. Here's the link:

EDIT: Attached a better example. Have fun!

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/vs/map.php
« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 11:17:22 PM by bigB »

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #711 on: May 23, 2015, 03:55:38 AM »
As of May 22nd, the BOM 30 day avg has increased slightly to 16.5.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #712 on: May 23, 2015, 04:12:57 AM »
I presume you mean BOM's 30 day ave SOI has move up slightly to negative 16.5.  :D
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #713 on: May 23, 2015, 04:23:14 AM »
I presume you mean BOM's 30 day ave SOI has move up slightly to negative 16.5.  :D

Haha! I got too excited about the new SSTA chart. Let me try that again, per the attached plot issued by the BOM on May 22nd, the 30 day avg SOI has increased slightly to -16.5.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #714 on: May 23, 2015, 10:54:32 PM »
Our 2 invests in EPAC continues to show signs of development.

Invest 1: located at ~5N 137W now has a 70% chance to develope during the next 48 hours.

Invest 2: located at ~12N 120W now has a 60% chance to develope during the next 48 hours and an 80% chance to do so in the next 5 days.

What we should hope for is that Invest 1 continues to develope as it would deliver some westerly winds, though not as much that it could be call a "Westerly Wind Burst", or?!

Longpaddock value for today was -17,7 pushing the 30-day average down to -16,5 and the 90-day average down to -10,48.

Best, LMV

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #715 on: May 23, 2015, 11:47:33 PM »
Over 230 deaths in India heat wave; continued adverse conditions expected this summer due to developing El Niño.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/heat-wave-leaves-153-dead-in-telangana-andhra-pradesh/article1-1350393.aspx
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jai mitchell

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #716 on: May 24, 2015, 01:26:13 AM »
The propensity for drought-level summer monsoonal activity in northern india is prescribed by a combination of both El Nino and Indian ocean surface and wind characteristics.  El Nino is described by the ENSO value and an El Nino is seen as negative to monsoonal rains.

The Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation value is described by an index called EQUINDOO as described here:  http://www.currentscience.ac.in/Volumes/106/10/1335.pdf

reference paper here: http://www.ias.ac.in/jess/aug2013/1005.pdf

However,

This paper just published last week shows that recent global warming has skewed the accuracy of Indian Summer Monsoonal Rainfall predictions and that emerging dynamics are creating unforeseen consequences.  I am sure that SE Asian aerosol forcing also has a significant impact, though I don't know what it would be.
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150518/ncomms8154/full/ncomms8154.html

exactly 1 month ago the India Meteorological Department predicted that we would have below normal monsoonal rainfall but all indications from this source say that it won't be significant.  Not sure if it is credible:  http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2015/04/24/this-is-why-you-can-ignore-indias-dark-monsoon-forecast/

you can track the advance of the monsoon rains here: 

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm

northern India usually receives its rain around 15th of June

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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #717 on: May 24, 2015, 03:22:05 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BOM on May 23rd, the 30 day avg SOI has dropped to -17.8. For several days now the GFS model has been calling for a difference in SLP between Darwin and Tahiti that would result in positive daily SOI values. However, this has not occurred. In fact, as LMV mentioned, today's daily SOI value for from the Long Paddock site was well negative. I find this to be quite interesting as the GFS model has shown exceptional short range (up to 3-4 days out) forecast skill during the last several months. Especially, with SLP forecasts for Darwin and Tahiti. Per the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models, daily SOI values should be in the very weak negative to weak positive range for the next few days before becoming moderately positive by mid next week. It will be interesting to see what happens. Weather models seem to be struggling to pick up what the ocean and atmosphere are laying down (at least with SLP forecasts for Darwin and Tahiti during the last few days). Maybe changes in the atmospheric circulation over the equatorial Pacific associated with a deepening El Nino are steadily solidifying.

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #718 on: May 25, 2015, 03:20:41 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BOM on May 24th, the 30 day avg SOI has increased to -16.8.

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #719 on: May 25, 2015, 02:33:27 PM »
A discussion of how the 2015 El Niño may indicate the next step up on the Skeptical Science "Escalator Graph" of global warming.

El Niño 2015 considered rare, aims to rewrite heat racords
Quote
The '86-'87 "step," which went up by about 0.15°C (32.27°F), is the one that's of greatest interest here, though, as the strong and unusual El Niño that developed that year is the closest "analogue" pattern to what we're seeing so far in 2015.
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/risk-of-new-global-warming-plateau-rising-with-el-nino-2015/51382/
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #720 on: May 25, 2015, 03:03:06 PM »
That's a curious quote, Sigmetnow, equating a change of 0.15°C  to a change of 32.27°F. 
(shudda been 0.27°F).
Now, a step up on the Skeptical Science "Escalator Graph" of 32.27°F (17.93°C) …  :'(
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #721 on: May 26, 2015, 03:16:16 AM »
The first attached image shows the NOAA plots of SSTA for the 4 Nino regions. I believe this data is valid through about May 20th, but I'm not 100% sure. NOAA hasn't issued their weekly ENSO status report, presumably due to the holiday. Per this data, it appears SSTA increased in all regions except the Nino 4. The Nino 3.4 region appears to be about +1.1 deg C, which would be warmest weekly value from NOAA for this event so far. The CDAS Nino 3.4 index from tropicaltidbits.com shows that SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region have decreased during the past few days but may be on the rise again. 

The Second attached image shows the BOM Nino 1, 2, 3, 3.4, and 4 indices respectively, for data through May 24th. Per this data, the Nino regions were as follows:

Nino 1: +1.97 deg C
Nino 2: +2.19 deg C
Nino 3 : +1.27 deg C
Nino 3.4: +1.09 deg C
Nino 4: +1.05 deg C

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #722 on: May 26, 2015, 03:43:06 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BOM on May 25th, the 30 day avg SOI has dropped to -17.4.


deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #723 on: May 26, 2015, 03:46:17 AM »
Just to back up bigB, here are the following weekly SSTA index values as reported by NOAA:

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 15APR2015     26.8 1.3     28.3 0.8     28.7 0.9     29.7 1.3
 22APR2015     26.7 1.5     28.4 1.0     28.7 1.0     29.9 1.3
 29APR2015     26.8 1.9     28.3 1.0     28.8 1.0     30.0 1.4
 06MAY2015     26.9 2.3     28.4 1.2     28.8 1.0     29.9 1.2
 13MAY2015     26.4 2.1     28.2 1.1     28.8 1.0     29.8 1.1
 20MAY2015     26.6 2.6     28.2 1.2     28.9 1.1     29.8 1.1

The eastern Pacific is advancing its gradual warming trend. We appear to be entering moderate El Niño conditions and so the magnitude of its consequences continues to grow. The Niño 1+2 regions escalated to the warmest anomalies there since 1998, but moreover, these regions (as as well as the equatorial Pacific at-large) are at a similar standpoint as was the case in late May 1997. The attached SST anomaly chart by the OSPO at NOAA provides a visual depiction of this trend.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2015, 04:13:25 AM by deep octopus »

deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #724 on: May 26, 2015, 04:18:39 AM »
The attached time-longitudinal scale zonal wind forecast presented by the University of Albany shows that weak to moderate lower level westerlies are forecast to persist over the next week, giving the current downwelling EKW some important support.

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #725 on: May 26, 2015, 06:38:54 AM »
The attached image shows the OSCAR plots of equatorial Pacific ocean surface currents for data centered on May 22nd. This is a BIG deal for the development of a strong El Nino. The image speaks for itself. The NECC has significantly strengthened while the SEC has significantly weakened (if not reversed), transporting warm surface water from west to east. With low level zonal westerly wind anomalies forecast to continue across the equatorial Pacific, this pattern will only strengthen.

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #726 on: May 26, 2015, 07:54:27 PM »
Models put the El Niño pedal to the metal—but does it mean anything?
http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/775/
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #727 on: May 26, 2015, 07:59:29 PM »
The attached animation is from NOAA's Coral Reef Watch and shows a daily evolution of global SSTA from Feb 25th-May 25th.


Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #728 on: May 26, 2015, 08:06:21 PM »
That's a curious quote, Sigmetnow, equating a change of 0.15°C  to a change of 32.27°F. 
(shudda been 0.27°F).
...

Good catch.  Looks like I'm not the only one who has tried to convert a tiny °C to °F in a temperature converter app and forgotten about that pesky 32°F offset.  >:(
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #729 on: May 26, 2015, 08:17:41 PM »
Here's another animation.

« Last Edit: May 26, 2015, 08:28:47 PM by bigB »

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #730 on: May 26, 2015, 08:31:03 PM »
BigB: the cold anomalies that were present in the Western Pacific earlier this year seems to have disappeared. We should see some WWB of various strength in the next few months. My main idea is what will happen IF there won't be any more marked SST gradient later this year. If so, I would put the odds for a TRIPLE El Niño to 5%... Such an unusual thing would perhaps yield another strong WWB by march-april next year...

That would be rather funny  ;D

But I think we'll see a more classical El Niño this year. What I do find rather odd is that Australia BoM hints a maximum anomaly in the Niño 3.4 area to materialize by JULY(!) Normally, the biggest anomalies are seen in late fall or early winter...

Best, LMV

deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #731 on: May 27, 2015, 04:07:36 AM »
Quote
Australia's outlook turns drier as Indian Ocean set to reinforce El Nino

In its fortnightly update, the bureau said the El Nino continues to strengthen in the tropical Pacific and sea-surface temperatures are likely to remain "well above" the threshold for such events into the southern hemisphere spring.

"We've had some weak El Ninos in recent years but this one looks like being quite significant," David Jones, head of climate prediction services at the bureau, said, adding that the event looks likely to exceed the intensity of the previous three in 2002, 2006 and 2009.

...

Whether Australia has a particularly dry period during an El Nino year depends largely on how the Indian Ocean counters or reinforces the Pacific influence.

The latest readings suggest the Indian Ocean off north-western Australia is starting to cool, a shift that would tend to reduce moisture flows over the continent.

A survey of international models suggests the shift to a so-called positive Indian Ocean Dipole favouring drier than usual conditions over central and southern Australia will take place later this year.

Source: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/australias-outlook-turns-drier-as-indian-ocean-set-to-reinforce-el-nino-20150526-gha1br.html

Note that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) combined with El Niño loads the dice not only in favor of drier conditions in southeast Asia and Australia, but intense flooding in east Africa.

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #732 on: May 27, 2015, 05:09:02 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BOM on May 26th, the 30 day avg SOI has dropped to -18.8.

LMV,

I suspect that without another WWB by July (like the WWB's we saw in March and May), this event will likely peak in the late July time-frame as suggested by the BOM's POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast. Although, it's hard to say as it's still too early. For now, further strengthening during the next few months looks more than likely.

nukefix

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #733 on: May 27, 2015, 11:27:43 AM »

plinius

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #734 on: May 27, 2015, 11:57:04 AM »
absolute dynamic topography = deviation from the geological mean 0 caused by temperature differences, wind stress, salinity differences, etc. You see nicely the equatorial upwelling regions due to windstress (locally lower sea surface) and e.g. the northern boundary of the gulf/north atlantic current - sharp height contrast due to coriolis force holding that anticyclonic mountain of water together.

anomalies: Deviation in SSH from the climatological mean for this date.

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #735 on: May 27, 2015, 09:24:06 PM »
The attached data from NOAA shows that as of May 23rd, the strong downwelling Kelvin wave in the Eastern equatorial Pacific has weakened some as the warmest anomalies associated with that Kelvin wave have just about surfaced. However, weak to moderate subsurface warming in the Central equatorial Pacific associated with the WWB that occurred during early/mid May, is currently reinforcing what's left of that Kelvin wave as indicated by the holding equatorial upper ocean heat anomalies.

Separately, there's currently an area of tropical invest in the Eastern Pacific, which will likely become the E PAC hurricane season's first TD or named storm later this week. Something to monitor.

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #736 on: May 28, 2015, 03:50:27 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BOM on May 27th, the 30 day avg SOI has increased to -17.7.

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #737 on: May 29, 2015, 05:40:27 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BOM on May 28th, the 30 day avg SOI has increased to -16.0.


deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #738 on: June 01, 2015, 03:44:21 PM »
The following SSTA index values as reported by NOAA show a considerable warming in the eastern Pacific over the last week. The Niño 3.4 region rose to 1.3 C, to the highest value since January 2010. The Niño 3 region warmed to 1.4 C, the highest value since December 2009. These numbers all point to moderate El Niño conditions.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
22APR2015     26.7 1.5     28.4 1.0     28.7 1.0     29.9 1.3
 29APR2015     26.8 1.9     28.3 1.0     28.8 1.0     30.0 1.4
 06MAY2015     26.9 2.3     28.4 1.2     28.8 1.0     29.9 1.2
 13MAY2015     26.4 2.1     28.2 1.1     28.8 1.0     29.8 1.1
 20MAY2015     26.6 2.6     28.2 1.2     28.9 1.1     29.8 1.1
 27MAY2015     26.3 2.6     28.2 1.4     29.0 1.3     29.9 1.1

deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #739 on: June 01, 2015, 03:46:07 PM »
The attached SST anomaly chart by OSPO visualizes the oceanic warming trend in the equatorial Pacific. Notice the pooling of warm water around South America and the orange blaze across the equator.

James Lovejoy

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #740 on: June 02, 2015, 01:21:20 AM »

James Lovejoy

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #741 on: June 02, 2015, 06:15:52 PM »
SOI up to -13.7


James Lovejoy

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #742 on: June 03, 2015, 07:11:08 AM »
SOI Up slightly to -13.6


jai mitchell

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #743 on: June 03, 2015, 03:29:19 PM »
MET predicts a drought year for India as the Monsoon is delayed.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Met-predicts-88-rains-India-stares-at-2nd-straight-drought/articleshow/47520970.cms

Quote
EW DELHI: The spectre of a second successive drought loomed larger over the country as India's national weather forecaster on Tuesday significantly downgraded its monsoon prediction, saying it expected the season's rains to be 88% of average.

This is the bleakest all-India monsoon prediction ever made by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), and the first time since countrywide forecasts began in 1988 that the department has projected a drought year — defined as countrywide rains in the June-September season falling below 90% of the long term average.

While this is the first predicted drought year there have been many crippling drought years.  the IMD has a significant bias toward underestimating drought and this makes this prediction very dire.

you can follow the progression of the stalled monsoon here:  http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #744 on: June 03, 2015, 04:27:59 PM »
Upper ocean heat content beginning to climb once more, in stark contrast to last year.

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

James Lovejoy

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #745 on: June 04, 2015, 06:42:26 AM »
SOI slightly up to -13.5

Note: My postings are merely to fill the a small part of the void from AbruptSLR's break from posting.
I'm also off on vacation, so expect postings to be spotty at best.



CraigsIsland

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #746 on: June 05, 2015, 07:28:05 PM »
Upper ocean heat content beginning to climb once more, in stark contrast to last year.



Stark indeed.

Thank you posters for the postings

James Lovejoy

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #747 on: June 06, 2015, 06:26:50 AM »
SOI up slightly again to -13.3


JayW

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #748 on: June 06, 2015, 12:57:45 PM »
Updated MEI from Dr Klaus Wolter

(Bolded for emphasis)
Quote
In the context of rapidly strengthening El Niño conditions over the last few months, this section features a comparison figure with analogous events since 1950.
The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade.
Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+5/-7) in this season, and excluding cases with declining April-May values compared to earlier in the year gives us six 'analogues' to ponder: 1957, 1987, 1993, 1997, 2002, and 2014 (all but 2014 are included in the MEI comparison figure of this section). Except for 2002-03, peak values of the remaining four events reached the strong threshold and maintained it from three months (1993) to 13 months (1997-98). None of the comparison figure cases dropped back to ENSO-neutral rankings before the end of the calendar year. Thus, if it were not for last year's unusual evolution, it would be safe to state that El Niño conditions are virtually guaranteed through 2015. Nevertheless, the odds for a substantial El Niño during the next six months appear better than since at least 2009.
Positive SST anomalies have consolidated over the equatorial Pacific, all the way from the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. While most of these anomalies reach +1 to +2C, one can find anomalies in excess of +3C near Galapagos.
For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (May 14th, 2015), El Niño conditions were diagnosed, and expected to continue through the rest of 2015 with a greater than 80% chance. I see no reason to disagree with this assessment.

Full discussion here
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html#discussion
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James Lovejoy

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #749 on: June 07, 2015, 03:45:38 AM »
SOI increased again to -12.4