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Author Topic: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?  (Read 298154 times)

Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #400 on: May 17, 2018, 11:20:27 PM »
Quote
The virtues of the free market that are espoused and held dear by Americans can be simplified to "Just don't get in the way of me getting mine."

Is it necessary to tar everyone in a country based on the behavior of some?


I have a bottomless tar bucket and a deep well of cynicism.

How about telling me your nationality so I can smear you with a generalization?

Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #401 on: May 17, 2018, 11:22:37 PM »
Bob
Do we need ANY growth from this point forward?


I believe it's obvious that we require redistribution, but I don't see that growth in itself is required, or even advantageous.
Elon Wants to whisk us effortlessly from LA to San Francisco in a tube. I'd rather he'd sponsor a bicycle race, or sailing regatta from one port city to the other.


If you need to be 400 miles away from where you are before lunch, you probably didn't plan your itinerary too well. :)
Terry

Do people who live without clean water and electricity need growth?

Do people who are starving to death need more growth?


Shared Humanity

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #402 on: May 18, 2018, 12:02:49 AM »
Quote
The virtues of the free market that are espoused and held dear by Americans can be simplified to "Just don't get in the way of me getting mine."

Is it necessary to tar everyone in a country based on the behavior of some?


I have a bottomless tar bucket and a deep well of cynicism.

How about telling me your nationality so I can smear you with a generalization?

U.S. citizen

TerryM

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #403 on: May 18, 2018, 12:34:15 AM »

Do people who live without clean water and electricity need growth?

Do people who are starving to death need more growth?


No, and No.
People without clean water need clean water, I'm not positive that anybody needs electricity, but if the do they need electricity, not growth.


People who are starving need food, not growth.






Clean water isn't "grown", it's preserved, ie not wasted on growth initiatives.


Food is wasted to fuel cars, among other things. - and that's the food they don't discard.


We've far more than enough water, electricity, and food for everyone. What we don't have enough of is distribution.


If a rich Somali warlord wants canned peaches for desert, his beard will be gripping syrup before the sun goes down. The food existed, it just wasn't being distributed. He didn't need to grow a peach orchard, he just needed to grease the distribution channels with his money and his threats.


Redistribute the surplus, and a little bit more, and most of the world would think they'd reached heaven. The rest of the world wouldn't for a large part even notice the difference.
Terry




sidd

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #404 on: May 18, 2018, 12:49:46 AM »
"Redistribute the surplus"

Careful, now. You veer close to communism, citizen. Or shall I call you comrade ?

"From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs"

sidd

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #405 on: May 18, 2018, 01:52:45 AM »
I could move to Cuba tomorrow and keep my smile. :)
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #406 on: May 18, 2018, 03:23:05 AM »
Quote
The virtues of the free market that are espoused and held dear by Americans can be simplified to "Just don't get in the way of me getting mine."

Is it necessary to tar everyone in a country based on the behavior of some?


I have a bottomless tar bucket and a deep well of cynicism.

How about telling me your nationality so I can smear you with a generalization?

U.S. citizen

So you're one of the "Just don't get in the way of me getting mine." greedy Americans....

Shared Humanity

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #407 on: May 18, 2018, 04:35:47 AM »
Quote
The virtues of the free market that are espoused and held dear by Americans can be simplified to "Just don't get in the way of me getting mine."

Is it necessary to tar everyone in a country based on the behavior of some?


I have a bottomless tar bucket and a deep well of cynicism.

How about telling me your nationality so I can smear you with a generalization?

U.S. citizen

So you're one of the "Just don't get in the way of me getting mine." greedy Americans....

No...just aware enough to know that greed drives the country.

Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #408 on: May 18, 2018, 05:46:49 AM »
Are there any countries (except Bhutan) which are not driven by greed?  Or at least have a large part of the population who are fueled by greed?

sidd

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #409 on: May 18, 2018, 06:06:16 AM »
Re: Countries driven by greed

There may be populations not driven by greed, but more importantly, their rulers are.

sidd

Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #410 on: May 18, 2018, 06:18:43 AM »
A very good way for the greedy to get more is to gain control over the government. 

Neven

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #411 on: May 18, 2018, 08:48:59 AM »
A very good way for the greedy to get more is to gain control over the government.

And brainwash the population.
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

zizek

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #412 on: May 19, 2018, 10:47:35 PM »
This article is a great read, and quotes the often mentioned here David Graeber.  Everyone should read Graeber's work.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/10/gaius-publius-capitalism-infinite-growth-climate-change-manufactured-hopelessness.html

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zizek

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #414 on: May 19, 2018, 11:30:12 PM »
yeah. same article. weird.

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #415 on: May 20, 2018, 08:07:23 AM »
A good one zizek.
"What drags us into hopelessness is the carefully manufactured illusion that there is no possible economy but a “free market” economy, despite (a) the fact that no free market ever existed anywhere, and doesn’t exist now; and (b) that successful communal — non-competitive — markets exist everywhere around us."

Preliminary statistics for 2017 by SCB for Sweden, BAU with growth.
Emissions +0.4%, GDP +2.4%.
https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/environment/environmental-accounts-and-sustainable-development/system-of-environmental-and-economic-accounts/pong/statistical-news/environmental-accounts--emissions-to-air-q4-2017-and-preliminary-statistics-for-2017/

Better than many western countires but nothing to cheer about.

Image attached; Greenhouse gas emissions and economic development, non-seasonally adjusted, 2008Q1-2017Q4. Those slightly higher peaks in 2010 and 2011 is also known as winter... Part of our "mitigation" is climate change and warmer winters. So 1:st quarter of 2018 will be higher, thanks to colder February and March months. Chucking out my crystal ball for today.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

zizek

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #416 on: May 20, 2018, 11:53:17 PM »
I was reading about battery technology today, and it was really interesting to see how our tax dollars subsidize the research, then the profits fall solely on the businesses.

You'll have researches develop a new technology using publicly funded lab equipment and knowledge. They would find a breakthrough, and start a company. Than they would find investors and buyers for their product. The investors would outline certain requirements, as well as who would receive their initial product (especially if the investor has a certain stake, such a car company wanting the battery for themselves). During this time, they would carefully protect their technology from outside eyes, as well as patent the technology so nobody else could develop it.

God damn capitalism is efficient. socialize costs, privatize profits.

zizek

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #417 on: May 21, 2018, 12:01:51 AM »
There are around ~9000 patents related to lithium-ion batteries, most are held by a handful of incredibly powerful conglomerates like Panasonic.  It's amazing to think that less than ~100 directors effectively have complete control of the most important technology to combat the greatest threat humanity has every faced.

I just don't understand who someone could look at this and say:
"yes, a hundred people having complete control over our destiny is a good thing. capitalism is good. everything is fine"

Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #418 on: May 21, 2018, 12:03:53 AM »
I was reading about battery technology today, and it was really interesting to see how our tax dollars subsidize the research, then the profits fall solely on the businesses.

You'll have researches develop a new technology using publicly funded lab equipment and knowledge. They would find a breakthrough, and start a company. Than they would find investors and buyers for their product. The investors would outline certain requirements, as well as who would receive their initial product (especially if the investor has a certain stake, such a car company wanting the battery for themselves). During this time, they would carefully protect their technology from outside eyes, as well as patent the technology so nobody else could develop it.

God damn capitalism is efficient. socialize costs, privatize profits.

Important research findings are patented and licensing is sold to corporations that want to use those findings.  It isn't given away.

zizek

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #419 on: May 21, 2018, 12:09:33 AM »
I can't wait in 50 years where I'm huddled around the fire in the post-apocyptic hell-scape having this conversation with my kid:

"You see, the world burned up because we kept polluting and polluting. It got so bad that researches and companies all across the world scrambled to find the technology to fix everything.  And we even did!"

"So what happened next? what was wrong with the technology? Why did you keep on polluting?"

"There wasn't anything wrong with it!"

"What do you mean there was't anything wrong with it!? Why did you keep polluting!?!?!"

"well, i guess i'll explain it to you. There's this thing called shareholder value......"


zizek

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #420 on: May 21, 2018, 12:15:54 AM »
I was reading about battery technology today, and it was really interesting to see how our tax dollars subsidize the research, then the profits fall solely on the businesses.

You'll have researches develop a new technology using publicly funded lab equipment and knowledge. They would find a breakthrough, and start a company. Than they would find investors and buyers for their product. The investors would outline certain requirements, as well as who would receive their initial product (especially if the investor has a certain stake, such a car company wanting the battery for themselves). During this time, they would carefully protect their technology from outside eyes, as well as patent the technology so nobody else could develop it.

God damn capitalism is efficient. socialize costs, privatize profits.

Important research findings are patented and licensing is sold to corporations that want to use those findings.  It isn't given away.

Come on Bob, how obtuse do you have to be.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2014/06/bad-science

sidd

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #421 on: May 21, 2018, 12:27:33 AM »
One difficulty with capitalism is that the market exposes a time preference discount rate. That is, even absent inflation, a dollar today is better than a dollar tomorrow, people will pay a dollar for a dollar right now, but less for the promise of a dollar tomorrow no matter how trustworthy the counterparty is.  This leads to a discount rate for the future, which is large enuf that loss for future generations is discounted to triviality in a relatively short period.

Ramsey was among the first to call this ethically indefensible back in the 1920s.

But there is another argument to discount future loss which depends on growth. If the economy always grows, then future generations will be richer and can bear the loss easier.

But as we see, human growth is killing the planet.

Of course a capitalist might say, "What have the future generations done for me, anyway. Fuck 'em."

http://www.ejolt.org/2013/01/discounting-the-future/

sidd

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #422 on: May 21, 2018, 01:04:15 AM »

Of course a capitalist might say, "What have the future generations done for me, anyway. Fuck 'em."

I think it's slightly more understandable than this, though with the same perverse outcome.
Said capitalist may well see the world going to rack and ruin.  The future generations he most cares about are his own grandchildren.

He knows that if he gave away his wealth and lived as a subsistence farmer, the net outcome for the world would not be affected by his sole, individual decision.

However, if he amasses wealth now and passes it on to his progeny, they might just be able to buy a piece of sanctuary somewhere to ride it all out.

Which is why these folks so hate the estate tax.  And why we need to increase it, not suspend it.

They're all just being rational human beings, making rational decisions.  And to hell with the rest of us.

Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #423 on: May 21, 2018, 02:01:35 AM »
Quote
"well, i guess i'll explain it to you. There's this thing called shareholder value......"

Have you seen what has happened to the value of coal shares? 

We are in the early days of a transition off fossil fuels.  The economic advantage of renewable energy has happened only in the last few years.



We've reached the point at which is no longer makes economic sense to build coal plants.  We're not quite to the point at which EVs are as cheap to purchase as ICEVs.  When we get there we should see oil share value drop like what has happened with coal.

Wind, solar, storage, and EVs are going to be the growth stocks going forward. 

You may find yourself  huddled around the fire in the post-apocalyptic hellscape 50 years from now but with every drop in wind, solar, and storage (including EV batteries) the odds drop.


Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #424 on: May 21, 2018, 02:07:40 AM »
I was reading about battery technology today, and it was really interesting to see how our tax dollars subsidize the research, then the profits fall solely on the businesses.

You'll have researches develop a new technology using publicly funded lab equipment and knowledge. They would find a breakthrough, and start a company. Than they would find investors and buyers for their product. The investors would outline certain requirements, as well as who would receive their initial product (especially if the investor has a certain stake, such a car company wanting the battery for themselves). During this time, they would carefully protect their technology from outside eyes, as well as patent the technology so nobody else could develop it.

God damn capitalism is efficient. socialize costs, privatize profits.

Important research findings are patented and licensing is sold to corporations that want to use those findings.  It isn't given away.

Come on Bob, how obtuse do you have to be.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2014/06/bad-science

I made a statement about universities licensing their research findings and you post an article that talks about universities licensing their research findings.

Furthermore, your article talks about industry providing the financing for university research.  In the case of those findings taxpayer money did not pay for the research.


Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #425 on: May 21, 2018, 02:10:20 AM »
Quote
But as we see, human growth is killing the planet.

Growth based on unsustainable inputs and that produces unacceptable outputs is killing the planet.

Base growth on sustainable inputs and prevent unacceptable outputs and we can grow.

zizek

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #426 on: May 21, 2018, 02:22:15 AM »
Quote
"well, i guess i'll explain it to you. There's this thing called shareholder value......"

Have you seen what has happened to the value of coal shares? 

We are in the early days of a transition off fossil fuels.  The economic advantage of renewable energy has happened only in the last few years.



We've reached the point at which is no longer makes economic sense to build coal plants.  We're not quite to the point at which EVs are as cheap to purchase as ICEVs.  When we get there we should see oil share value drop like what has happened with coal.

Wind, solar, storage, and EVs are going to be the growth stocks going forward. 

You may find yourself  huddled around the fire in the post-apocalyptic hellscape 50 years from now but with every drop in wind, solar, and storage (including EV batteries) the odds drop.
thanks bob, for completely missing my point. or purposely ignoring it. I don't know.

Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #427 on: May 21, 2018, 05:24:46 AM »
zizek,  I have concerns about your ability to understand English. 

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #428 on: May 21, 2018, 09:08:01 AM »
This is unfortunately in Swedish but they provide the abstract in English.

Shareholder value – the American way and the Swedish game to play?
http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:627423/FULLTEXT01.pdf

Quote
Master Thesis in Business Administration, School of Business and Economics,
Linnaeus University, 4FE03E, 2013
Authors: Andrée Söderlindh och Martin Holgersson
Supervisor: Anna Stafsudd
Examiner: Sven-Olof Collin
Title: Shareholder Value – The American way and the Swedish game to play?

Background: Shareholder value has its origin in the American corporate governance system and has been the subject of great debate over the last few decades. The proponents claim that it creates economic efficiency while the critics argue that maximization of shareholder value jeopardizes the long term survival of companies. However, the debate in Sweden already seems to have forgotten the question of how embedded the ideology really is and what´s leading its way.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to explain if and how the ideology has spread in Swedish publicly listed companies.

Method: The study has a deductive research approach to explain the diffusion of the ideology. The underlying theory is based on social network theory, new institutional theory, resource dependence theory and upper echelon theory. The quantitative method relies on Swedish network-, ownership-, board- and financial data from 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010.

Conclusions: The results show that shareholder value has developed and been established in Swedish companies between 1995 and 2005. The study has found evidence that suggests that the development can primarily be linked to board networks and international exposure. However, the results also indicate that an underlying effect can be traced to the two leading business groups in Sweden.

Two, Wallenberg and SHB (Handelsbanken).
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

zizek

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #429 on: May 21, 2018, 03:20:01 PM »
zizek,  I have concerns about your ability to understand English.

My Dear Bob,

I made a post describing the absurdity of how a handful of incredibly powerful individuals have complete control over the fate of humanity (please ignore my hyperbole).  I then made another post that was supposed to be a humorous fictional account of the tragedy.

And instead of addressing the main point of my post. You know, how we live in a society that it's totally okay and normal that the fate of 7 billion people can be controlled by a handful of people. You respond by doing this:

*puts on top hat and monocle*

"actually Zizek, in post #423 of Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How? the man mentions the word shareholder value. "

*snorts*

"Interesting that you bring that up"

*scrambles around to find lecture stick. pulls down graph titled: Renewable Energy - Historical Costs *

"as you can see, costs of renewable have been going down. I can draw a conclusion that the oil and coal will no longer hold any value for shareholders."

*turns to the audience, straightens collar, puffs up chest*

"And so what does this mean? Well, that Zizek's account of the future is completed disconnected from our reality. No projections suggest there will be any apocalypse, or huddling, or storytelling.  My friends, the markets will fix everything. No need to be worried"



Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #430 on: May 21, 2018, 05:27:34 PM »
zizek,  I have concerns about your ability to understand English.

My Dear Bob,

I made a post describing the absurdity of how a handful of incredibly powerful individuals have complete control over the fate of humanity (please ignore my hyperbole).  I then made another post that was supposed to be a humorous fictional account of the tragedy.

And instead of addressing the main point of my post. You know, how we live in a society that it's totally okay and normal that the fate of 7 billion people can be controlled by a handful of people. You respond by doing this:

*puts on top hat and monocle*

"actually Zizek, in post #423 of Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How? the man mentions the word shareholder value. "

*snorts*

"Interesting that you bring that up"

*scrambles around to find lecture stick. pulls down graph titled: Renewable Energy - Historical Costs *

"as you can see, costs of renewable have been going down. I can draw a conclusion that the oil and coal will no longer hold any value for shareholders."

*turns to the audience, straightens collar, puffs up chest*

"And so what does this mean? Well, that Zizek's account of the future is completed disconnected from our reality. No projections suggest there will be any apocalypse, or huddling, or storytelling.  My friends, the markets will fix everything. No need to be worried"

I have tried to point out to you that you are ignoring what is happening in the real world.  The power of the fossil fuel industry is waning.  The value of coal stock has collapsed very rapidly.  Coal is holding some political power only because some officials coal helped put in office have yet to understand that they are now batting for a team that has already lost.

Over the next five years we are almost certain to see clear signs that oil is going to suffer the same fate as coal.

Yes, a relatively small number of people hold too much power.  I suspect this is as it always has been. 

Yes, the market may not save us from extreme climate change.  But for the most part the market is now moving us in the right direction.  And we see acceleration toward a low carbon energy future.

If we were smart enough we would utilize our strength as voters and make sure that the people we put in office put climate change very high on their priority list.  We'd create governments that serve as catalysts to speed changes faster.

zizek

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #431 on: May 21, 2018, 05:46:01 PM »
I wanted to post this early but I didn't want to take away from my original point:

Peabody Energy, the largest coal companies in the world, Has seen a net income of 732 million compared to its gross of 4.7 billion. That sure is a huge amount of value that can be extracted from fossil fuels. Hopefully climate change can wait until they become unprofitable!

Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #432 on: May 21, 2018, 08:28:35 PM »
I wanted to post this early but I didn't want to take away from my original point:

Peabody Energy, the largest coal companies in the world, Has seen a net income of 732 million compared to its gross of 4.7 billion. That sure is a huge amount of value that can be extracted from fossil fuels. Hopefully climate change can wait until they become unprofitable!

Peabody Energy went bankrupt in 2016.  Peabody's stock had been selling above $80/share and dropped to $2/share over a short period.

A smaller Peabody has emerged out of the ashes.  And during the same period many coal companies went out of business.

Peabody's Appalachian mines are basically done for.  What coal they are still mining is largely in the NW but even those mines are losing business.  Coal has dropped from a high of 57% of US electricity supply in 1985 to 30% in 2017 with most of the drop happening in the last ten years.

Almost no new coal plants are being built and several are scheduled to close over the next couple of years.  Electricity from new wind and solar are now becoming less expensive than paid off coal plants.  Many of the US's coal plants are aging out and will be closed upon the next need for an expensive repair if the price of wind and solar does not get them first.

This is a four year old chart.  Even more US coal plants have moved into the 'senior citizen' category.



This is the market operating.  Capitalism.  Coal no longer is very profitable and is becoming less profitable over time. 

Is the market operating fast enough?  Obviously not.  We're already suffering from climate change.  We need other accelerators if we want to avoid extreme climate change.  But the power of the market is immense and with it working for us we stand a much better chance of minimizing our pain.

zizek

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #433 on: May 21, 2018, 08:59:38 PM »
Since Peabody's restructuring in 2016, They've almost doubled their stock! from $23/share to as high as $42. It's honestly amazing what a bank does for shareholder value when they get their hands on a bankrupt business.

And what's the best part of capitalism? Globalization! New markets! New places to pollute! Cheap Labour! Poor environmental laws!

It only took the United States a few centuries industrialization before we got to enjoy our environemtnal laws. Hopefully developing nations can do that in far less time. Or maybe not.








zizek

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #434 on: May 21, 2018, 09:02:44 PM »
Bob, your american exceptionalism keeps distracting you from realizing there's *checks google* 7 billion other people living on the planet!

Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #435 on: May 22, 2018, 05:52:08 AM »
Quote
Since Peabody's restructuring in 2016, They've almost doubled their stock! from $23/share to as high as $42. It's honestly amazing what a bank does for shareholder value when they get their hands on a bankrupt business.

You are looking at one company in isolation.  The US coal market has shrunk by almost 50% and is still on the decline.

EIA predictions are pretty much worthless and that's been the case for a number of years.

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #436 on: May 22, 2018, 05:53:06 AM »
Bob, your american exceptionalism keeps distracting you from realizing there's *checks google* 7 billion other people living on the planet!

Perhaps you could point out to me how my American exceptionalism is blinding me to the rest of the planet?

Shared Humanity

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #437 on: May 22, 2018, 05:56:11 AM »
Yes, electricity generated by coal has dropped dramatically in the U.S. but this is primarily due to a dramatic increase in natural gas generation, not renewables.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25392

And these aren't predictions. This is hard data.

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #438 on: May 22, 2018, 06:05:04 AM »
Bob, your american exceptionalism keeps distracting you from realizing there's *checks google* 7 billion other people living on the planet!

Perhaps you could point out to me how my American exceptionalism is blinding me to the rest of the planet?

I think he is suggesting that any reduction in coal consumption in the U.S. is dwarfed by growth in coal consumption overseas.

Bob Wallace

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #439 on: May 22, 2018, 06:46:03 AM »
Yes, electricity generated by coal has dropped dramatically in the U.S. but this is primarily due to a dramatic increase in natural gas generation, not renewables.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25392

And these aren't predictions. This is hard data.

Do you not understand that this is a good thing?

Gas plants are highly dispatchable, unlike coal plants.  Turning off gas plants when wind and solar are producing saves gas.  Trying to go from high coal penetration levels of coal to high penetration levels of wind and solar without a fill-in would be very difficult.  And, so far, storage is too expensive.

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #440 on: May 22, 2018, 06:59:14 AM »
Bob, your american exceptionalism keeps distracting you from realizing there's *checks google* 7 billion other people living on the planet!

Perhaps you could point out to me how my American exceptionalism is blinding me to the rest of the planet?

I think he is suggesting that any reduction in coal consumption in the U.S. is dwarfed by growth in coal consumption overseas.

The US is number three in coal consumption, following China and India.  Number four, Japan, uses about a third as much coal as the US.  Of the top three coal consuming nations China appears to have plateaued, India is still increasing their use, the US is dropping.

Global coal consumption fell from 3889.4 Mtoe in 2014 to 3784.7 Mtoe in 2015 to 3732.0 Mtoe in 2016.  There is no global increase in coal consumption.  Only a slight decrease which looks as if it will accelerate going forward.

In terms of percentage drop in coal usage 2015 to 2016 the US was number 13.  The UK dropped their coal use by over 50%.  Spain and Mexico by almost 25%.

I still see no basis for any American exceptionalism on my part.


TerryM

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #441 on: May 22, 2018, 07:30:32 AM »

Bob
Natural gas, at least natural gas obtained without fracking, is superior to any of the other so called fossil fuels. Turn in on, turn it up, turn it down, shut it off. - Can't do that with coal.
Methane is going to keep bubbling up no matter what we do, and burning it in usefull pursuits is much better than letting it escape, or flaring it off.
Putin has been pushing for natural gas fueled cars and trucks throughout Russia. With no fracking it might be significantly cleaner than petrol or diesel. Not comparable to EVs powered by solar, hydro or wind, but...

https://www.rt.com/business/414447-russia-natural-gas-fuel-putin/

Terry

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #442 on: May 22, 2018, 10:35:16 AM »
The US is at the bottom of the bin nowadays, nothing exeptional about it. Hopefully this won't offend Bob but zizek's question regarding American exeptionalism above made me remember what I asked Bob three years ago:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1178.msg47993.html#msg47993

What has changed since then?

SD (Sweden Democrats) now has almost 1/5:th of voter support. Found this one in English.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-politics-poll/support-for-swedish-government-coalition-falls-in-poll-idUSKCN1IJ25I

EPH (who Vattenfall sold it's dirty business to) claims coal will be used for thirty more years. Unfortunately in German.
https://www.lr-online.de/lausitz/cottbus/wirtschaft/eph-manager-kohle-wird-noch-30-jahre-gebraucht_aid-6942236
Also adding Kohlesubventionen 1950-2008 below.

Sarc on.
Vattenfall nowadays airs boasting commercials and their CEO is now Swedens premier environmentalist, building our future society. Their goal; society will be fossil free within the next generation, our kids kids, that is... And as he graciously adds at the end; "-But it's hard to say if we can limit warming to max 1.5-2 degrees."
This pdf (below) is unfortunately in Swedish. But it's a free supplement from SVD. How generous of them...
Sarc off.

The medium estimate of our carbon budget for 1.5°C, runs out at the same time the Arctic ocean reaches this years lowest extent.

Finally, here's a short previous comment with Sweden's challenges:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1150.msg143576.html#msg143576
Also adding the average North American's annual carbon footprint as a comparison.

Rarely drive nowadays but I, along with three other cars, got passed by a speeding Tesla yesterday. Mitigation? Still not here. Transformation? Some are talking about it.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 10:41:41 AM by Sleepy »
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Shared Humanity

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #443 on: May 22, 2018, 03:37:08 PM »
Yes, electricity generated by coal has dropped dramatically in the U.S. but this is primarily due to a dramatic increase in natural gas generation, not renewables.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25392

And these aren't predictions. This is hard data.

Do you not understand that this is a good thing?

Gas plants are highly dispatchable, unlike coal plants.  Turning off gas plants when wind and solar are producing saves gas.  Trying to go from high coal penetration levels of coal to high penetration levels of wind and solar without a fill-in would be very difficult.  And, so far, storage is too expensive.

With regards to CO2 emissions? Yes. With regards to the impact on the overall environment, environmental degradation of ground water and postponing the transition to renewables? Not in the least. We need to get off all fossil fuels, natural gas included, if we are going to have any hope of avoiding climate catastrophe.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 04:24:03 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #444 on: May 22, 2018, 04:06:00 PM »
I still see no basis for any American exceptionalism...

This I can agree with. There is actually nothing exceptional about the rate of solar and wind power generation in the U.S.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

Nor is there anything exceptional about wind and solar installations.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34472

This eia piece is particularly discouraging as it touts that nearly half of utility-scale capacity installed in 2017 came from renewables. Sounds impressive until you realize that means that over half of utility-scale installations were not renewables. Our current approach to transitioning to renewables is a monumental failure and we are running out of time.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 05:10:59 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #445 on: May 22, 2018, 04:20:51 PM »

Bob
Natural gas, at least natural gas obtained without fracking, is superior to any of the other so called fossil fuels. Turn in on, turn it up, turn it down, shut it off. - Can't do that with coal.
Methane is going to keep bubbling up no matter what we do, and burning it in usefull pursuits is much better than letting it escape, or flaring it off.
Putin has been pushing for natural gas fueled cars and trucks throughout Russia. With no fracking it might be significantly cleaner than petrol or diesel. Not comparable to EVs powered by solar, hydro or wind, but...

https://www.rt.com/business/414447-russia-natural-gas-fuel-putin/

Terry

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that in 2017, about 16.76 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of dry natural gas was produced from shale resources in the United States. This was about 60% of total U.S. dry natural gas production in 2017.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=907&t=8

Not a pretty process...

Hydraulic fracturing involves the high-pressure injection of 'fracking fluid' (primarily water, containing sand or other proppants suspended with the aid of thickening agents) into a wellbore to create cracks in the deep-rock formations through which natural gas will flow more freely. When the hydraulic pressure is removed from the well, small grains of hydraulic fracturing proppants (either sand or aluminium oxide) hold the fractures open.

Our natural gas production miracle is an environmental disaster and the fact that it can be done economically means the disaster will continue.


Shared Humanity

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #446 on: May 22, 2018, 04:53:36 PM »
Gas plants are highly dispatchable, unlike coal plants.  Turning off gas plants when wind and solar are producing saves gas.  Trying to go from high coal penetration levels of coal to high penetration levels of wind and solar without a fill-in would be very difficult.

Ah yes....the tired trope that natural gas is being exploited as a transition to renewables or a fill-in until we've addressed the issue of storage.

There is not a single energy company that is pursuing fracking because they understand it is a necessary transition to renewables. They are doing it because they want to make a bundle of money and shale gas is a profitable play. So long as it is profitable, they'll market the hell out of the fact they are concerned about the environment (they're not) and continue to shove fracking chemicals into the ground.

How the business community sees natural gas and renewables...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2018/04/01/will-u-s-natural-gas-production-outpace-demand/#68fa95d1118d

"In fact, gas is now almost 45% of U.S. power generation capacity, and climbing toward 50%. From 2017-2020, we will be installing 80,000 megawatts of new gas capacity, or almost a 20% increase in just a few years with even more coming. The entire country is turning to gas, and new regulations to cut greenhouse gas emissions favor natural gas. The ability of wind and solar power, augmented by battery storage, to displace, not supplement, natural gas, is typically overstated."

They do not see natural gas as a transition to renewables. They see natural gas as being able to compete with and delay our transition to renewables. This highly profitable, fossil fuel play will be a long term feature of our electric generation industry and this is not a long term good thing. The industry sees natural gas supplies as nearly endless and since domestic production is far in excess of domestic consumption, we will be causing environmental damage to support a massive increase in exports.

"Looking forward now, the upside to gas prices seems as small as it has ever been: our Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System projects that U.S. gas production will increasingly outpace demand.

That's mostly because the amount of gas that we have at our disposal is really without end. We probably have the largest lowest cost gas resource in the world, and our proven reserves alone were up 5% last year to 341 trillion cubic feet - a 60% leap since 2006.

More short-term, EIA has gas production outpacing domestic demand over each of the next two years by about 3 Bcf/d. Most of our new demand potential, however, is in the export market, which isn't factored into that. As the wildcard in our gas market, exports to Mexico and LNG will account for 70-80% of new demand for at least the next five years. According to EIA, LNG exports alone will increase by ~5.5 Bcf/d by the end of 2019 to nearly 9 Bcf/d. So, production will need to rise to the mid-80s Bcf/d level to support this structural increase in consumption."
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 05:52:28 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #447 on: May 22, 2018, 07:42:01 PM »
Quote
Methane is going to keep bubbling up no matter what we do, and burning it in usefull pursuits is much better than letting it escape, or flaring it off.

We aren't capturing the bubbling up, natural emission methane.  But you do make a good point about wellhead methane.  It's either capture and use it to replace coal or flare it off.  Same amount of CO2 from the methane, less from coal.

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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #448 on: May 22, 2018, 07:50:33 PM »

Bob
Natural gas, at least natural gas obtained without fracking, is superior to any of the other so called fossil fuels. Turn in on, turn it up, turn it down, shut it off. - Can't do that with coal.
Methane is going to keep bubbling up no matter what we do, and burning it in usefull pursuits is much better than letting it escape, or flaring it off.
Putin has been pushing for natural gas fueled cars and trucks throughout Russia. With no fracking it might be significantly cleaner than petrol or diesel. Not comparable to EVs powered by solar, hydro or wind, but...

https://www.rt.com/business/414447-russia-natural-gas-fuel-putin/

Terry

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that in 2017, about 16.76 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of dry natural gas was produced from shale resources in the United States. This was about 60% of total U.S. dry natural gas production in 2017.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=907&t=8

Not a pretty process...

Hydraulic fracturing involves the high-pressure injection of 'fracking fluid' (primarily water, containing sand or other proppants suspended with the aid of thickening agents) into a wellbore to create cracks in the deep-rock formations through which natural gas will flow more freely. When the hydraulic pressure is removed from the well, small grains of hydraulic fracturing proppants (either sand or aluminium oxide) hold the fractures open.

Our natural gas production miracle is an environmental disaster and the fact that it can be done economically means the disaster will continue.

You have to balance that against the environmental damage done by coal.

Coal mining is ruining vast amounts of land, blowing the tops off mountains, destroying streams, leaving mountains of coal ash, and causing hundreds of millions of dollars of health damage along with millions of unnecessary deaths per year.

At this point in time we do not have all the options we'd like:

a)  Do the same we've been doing.
b)  Do something better than what we've been doing.
c)  Do the perfect.

Option 'c' is not an option we have.  Our best option is to go with 'b' and work our way toward 'c'. 




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Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Reply #449 on: May 22, 2018, 08:07:21 PM »
Same amount of CO2 from the methane, less from coal.
Is that true per BTU? - Regardless CH4 is a much worse GHG for at least 100 years, and burning coal creates a myriad of problems in addition to producing CO2.


Buffet and Gates large investments in rail might not be worth much without them hauling coal from mine to generator or to a sea port. Will they allow those dollars to side silently into the night?
Terry