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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #700 on: May 08, 2015, 08:03:01 PM »
Ok then.  The reanalyzer shows 2 m temps well above zero over the entire Beaufort sea and part of Chukchi and CAB for the next 120 hours. Well within the span of trustable forecasts.

Note: i just noticed the graphs I was looking to correspond to 0h GMT. Which translates to afternoon in Alaska
Indeed temperatures go below zero early in the morning over Beaufort. Still.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2015, 08:20:25 PM by seaicesailor »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #701 on: May 08, 2015, 08:46:30 PM »
I know this sounds boring but I don't believe anything about this melting season considering just how bad both 2014 and 2014 were.. The next 48 hour GFS forecast points to temps slightly above 0 in Beaufort and Kara Sea. This should allow for some weakening of the ice even though no real melting will occur. THe main areas for sea ice melt would be Chuckhi and maybe the Labrador Sea. The latter areas southern parts may get hit by a cyclone in about 48 hours which should do some damage to the remaining ice there.

But I really do hope that we'll see a very exciting melt season this year :) But I just don't see how 2015 will break 2012 years record low given that the sea ice is thicker than it was by this time in 2012. The earliest I think we'll see a new record low will be by 2017-2018..

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #702 on: May 08, 2015, 09:47:50 PM »
But I really do hope that we'll see a very exciting melt season this year :) But I just don't see how 2015 will break 2012 years record low given that the sea ice is thicker than it was by this time in 2012.

I really do hope we'll see a very boring lack of melt season this year. However as I pointed out upthread, and according to PIOMAS at least, apart from the central area the sea ice is NOT thicker than this time in 2012. Perhaps you may get your wish if melt ponds arrive earlier than the last two years and are then followed by a "great" cyclone or two late in the season?
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #703 on: May 09, 2015, 11:16:03 AM »
I suspect a lot of Arctic Sea Ice watchers don't want to admit to being excited when the ice numbers take a dive. We care about planet earth and think it is important that the North Pole keeps a white lid and yet... We talk about "century breaks". We don't comment as much when we see the DMI 80º North dipping below the green line as it has done recently. We look at the Climate Reanalyser forecast  which suggests big melts in Beaufort, Chukchi and Kara over the next week and I suspect we'll be tuning in to Neven's blog more often, reading the extent and area numbers and looking at the ice maps, looking to see if the DMI 80º N hits -2 earlier than usual, even though we know a few weeks of colder than average summer could level that out again. We know ice volume has had a couple of good years (cold summers again) yet we can see there's no multi-year ice between Novaya Zemlya and the Pole and we wonder could this be the year? I woke up (like many people) to the state of the arctic in 2007.  2013 and 2014 has reassured a lot of people out there that the arctic can look after itself and maybe it will take another big melt to shake them out of their compacency.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #704 on: May 09, 2015, 01:04:03 PM »
... considering just how bad both 2014 and 2014 were...
What, both of them?  ;-)

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #705 on: May 09, 2015, 03:06:59 PM »
I couldn't disagree more with you Lord Vader.  It is a "future event".....but the chances of a SIGNIFICANT new low this year or next....is overwhelming.  Too much heat in the ocean....and it is "attacking" from 3 sides (the 2 ocean sides....and the Russian coast which is melting).

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #706 on: May 09, 2015, 04:05:08 PM »
A Landsat 8 image of the Mackenzie Delta from May 4th:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201415-images/#Beaufort

plus Terra from May 8th
« Last Edit: May 09, 2015, 04:35:23 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #707 on: May 09, 2015, 04:13:39 PM »
I'm also wondering at the impacts of warm waters on parts of the basin over coming months? We've seen the triple R sitting around allowing 'the blob' to develop and we've seen the warmth of the record KW, in the nino regions last feb, drift up the US shore to reinforce the warmth of the blob ( and pushing up those winter PDO values) so surely it is also flowing into Bering and the basin?

After 07' we learned that the flow in through Bring had been at record rates all that summer (with and arm of it exiting through Baffin via the C.A.) so are we to expect a similar 'rush' into that side for the rest of summer?

We know the weather heavily impacts the Atlantic side of the basin ( low export years) but could 'warm water' ,and the bottom melt this drives, over come atmospheric drivers?
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #708 on: May 09, 2015, 05:31:16 PM »
Somewhat belatedly I've put up the 2014/2015 Winter Analysis on the ASIB.

Quote
After 07' we learned that the flow in through Bring had been at record rates all that summer (with and arm of it exiting through Baffin via the C.A.) so are we to expect a similar 'rush' into that side for the rest of summer?
The Pacific side of the Arctic is extremely interesting this year, not in the least part because of stuff taking place there as we speak, the cracked mix of MYI and FYI ice, the open water near the coast, the relatively high temps (projected to continue). And as you can see on this SST comparison map I made for the Winter Analysis, waters on the Alaskan south coast were above average this past winter, one of the reasons the max hit early and didn't do a double peak:

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #709 on: May 09, 2015, 05:44:30 PM »
A question that keeps coming to mind. Melt ponds seem to be a great indicator of how much melt will occur. What happens if the ice can not hold a melt pond? Could that have been part of the reason for no ponds in 2013,2014? and if we are in a situation where little to no pond can be established then could this change drastically how the melt season plays out? Also, if the ice condition is in such a state that melt ponds can not form (such as rotten ice that allows all water to flow through to ocean as soon as it becomes water) then could that be an indicator of what current conditions of ice actually are?
As this forum is depended primarily on satellite images the answers to these questions may not be possible, but I do think that it is something to think about. Anothing thing is, melt ponds do not necessarily need over 0C air temps to form. All that is needed is sunlight creating enough heat on the very surface of the ice to raise the ice to the melt stage for it to melt. This can come from dark snow, reflection concentrating light, any number of other methods. Once a melt pond does form then all it needs is constant sunlight and air temps close enough to 0C (do not know physics to answer that question, just know it would not be a simple answer as it would involve how much sunlight you have wind and air temps and maybe also ice movement itself) to keep it liquid.
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epiphyte

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #710 on: May 09, 2015, 06:45:52 PM »
Quote
@gray-wolf "We know the weather heavily impacts the Atlantic side of the basin ( low export years) but could 'warm water' ,and the bottom melt this drives, over come atmospheric drivers?"

(Neven definitely stole my thunder on this - but I'm posting it anyway :) )

Last week I posted contrasting snapshots of the Atlantic side, illustrating the cold air & ice racing south coming up against the warm water moving North. That continues apace (although right now the wind at the interface has backed off toward the NE in places)

Attached is snapshot from nullschool showing the SSTA right now. The point highlighted in green is 6.3 degrees C warmer than average, with an absolute value of 5.9 degrees. If you pull up the picture yourself and animate the currents you'll see that the basic picture is unchanged from last week.

Looking at Neven's comparison plots the size and shape of the anomaly itself shows less red than in previous significant years - but IMO this doesn't necessarily signal a healthy prognosis for the Atlantic-side ice.

The combination a sharply defined Delta-T at the interface between ice and water, and the rate of transport across it (in both directions), is what I'd see as the most significant indicator of energy crossing to the North. Looking at the picture one can see that we have it right now in a big way.

If I understand it correctly (and I'm definitely open to being corrected!) - once it gets there that energy won't show up as warmer temperatures anywhere there is still ice I'd hazard that if the ice was melting and/or unusually salty, the SST might even show up as colder than usual right up till the day it melted out completely...


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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #711 on: May 09, 2015, 11:32:42 PM »
The latest edition of Arctic Sea Ice News is out:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/05/new-tools-for-sea-ice-thickness/

Quote
Data from new sensors, combined with older sources, are providing a more complete picture of ice thickness changes across the Arctic. In a recently published paper, R. Lindsay and A. Schweiger provide a longer-term view of ice thickness, compiling a variety of subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations. They found that ice thickness over the central Arctic Ocean has declined from an average of 3.59 meters (11.78 feet) to only 1.25 meters (4.10 feet), a reduction of 65% over the period 1975 to 2012.

Weekly sea ice age on an EASE grid is also revealed, but only up to 2012:

http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0611/versions/1
« Last Edit: May 10, 2015, 12:12:22 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #712 on: May 10, 2015, 08:35:53 AM »
Snow over the NW part of Canada has to be melting vigorously.

It reached 61F(16C) at Inuvik yesterday.  6-8C all along the arctic basin shore. 

The forecast at Sachs Harbor is for 7C tomorrow.  That is way above normal.

Its only May 10th.

 Not sure what folks are expecting. 

You can already see albedo dropping on modis over large parts of the Beaufort.

The Mackenzie Delta is gonna be ice free early this year.



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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #713 on: May 10, 2015, 11:01:35 AM »
Beaufort is getting torched in the coming week:

Chukchi and Hudson too.


Chukchi and Hudson too.
Bye bye snow, hellow melt pond starting mid-May?



Not to forget Hudson, in the next 120 hours (within the span of trustable predictions  ;) ) heat wave over there too. And along with it a lot of snow melt happening in that latitude band. Altogether it makes a substantial decrease of albedo. In Eurasia, snow cover *anomalies* have decreased. Snow cover should make a difference later on

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #714 on: May 10, 2015, 11:13:40 AM »
Beaufort is getting torched in the coming week:

Chukchi and Hudson too.


Chukchi and Hudson too.
Bye bye snow, hellow melt pond starting mid-May?



Not to forget Hudson, in the next 120 hours (within the span of trustable predictions  ;) ) heat wave over there too. And along with it a lot of snow melt happening in that latitude band. Altogether it makes a substantial decrease of albedo. In Eurasia, snow cover *anomalies* have decreased. Snow cover should make a difference later on

Do you know of any good sources of information on current snow cover anomalies for the northern hemisphere? I've done some googling and not been able to find anything relevant to the current season.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #715 on: May 10, 2015, 11:17:31 AM »
Do you know of any good sources of information on current snow cover anomalies for the northern hemisphere? I've done some googling and not been able to find anything relevant to the current season.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2015&ui_day=129&ui_set=2

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=0&ui_sort=0

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #716 on: May 10, 2015, 11:21:01 AM »
Siffy,
Thru Neven's graph page I have been following this:

https://www.ccin.ca/home/ccw/snow/current

I was most interested in how has snow cover in Northern Eurasia changing for the last 10 days or so, and where it was well positive, now a mix of positive and neg anomalies appear

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R ine: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #717 on: May 10, 2015, 11:22:24 AM »

The 00z euro is bad for the ice verbatim.

Establishes a long fetch dipole with warm flow off NA.

Again OP models are taken with a grain of salt this far out.


There is ensemble support.

Under this scenario the Beaufort/Mackenzie Delta would open up big time before May is out.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #718 on: May 10, 2015, 11:29:22 AM »


Just noticed jaxa is running pretty low to start off.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #719 on: May 10, 2015, 11:30:12 AM »
A question that keeps coming to mind. Melt ponds seem to be a great indicator of how much melt will occur. What happens if the ice can not hold a melt pond? Could that have been part of the reason for no ponds in 2013,2014? and if we are in a situation where little to no pond can be established then could this change drastically how the melt season plays out? Also, if the ice condition is in such a state that melt ponds can not form (such as rotten ice that allows all water to flow through to ocean as soon as it becomes water) then could that be an indicator of what current conditions of ice actually are?
Over the last 9 years the three years with the lowest May  melt were 2006, 2013 and 2014 with   ~ 1.2-1.3M km^2 melt  according to NSIDC.  2013 and 2014. 2013 and 2014 had temperature anomalies in May, across the entire Arctic Circle of only +0.4 and +0.99 respectively.  2006 had a higher anomaly but  I  suspect the ice was quite differeent back then. 2009 and 2010, which had the greatest May melts over this period, had anomalies of +1.83 and 2.33.
This suggests that  temperature is a major explanation for the lack of melt ponds over the past two years.
Of the declines over the past 9 years only that in 2014 and 2006 would prevent  a record low extent as at 1 Jun.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #720 on: May 10, 2015, 12:51:50 PM »
Agree friv. If snow cover in the western corner of NA doesn't crash during the next week then I will altogether give up trying to predict snow cover.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #721 on: May 10, 2015, 01:59:21 PM »
Yes.

Models have high temps reaching the mid to upper 40s pretty much all week near the arctic basin shore.

And 50s and 60s to even 70F in the Intel
Interior.

With a predominate ESE to S flow.

Snow should vanish rapidly. 
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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #722 on: May 10, 2015, 09:27:13 PM »
GFS has backed off from the hot temps in Beaufort/Kara/Hudson forecast somewhat, although inland temps in NW Canada and AK still look pretty high.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #723 on: May 10, 2015, 11:32:05 PM »
Andrew Slater's "Probabilistic Ice Extent" did pretty well at forecasting last year's September minimum extent, and it's now up and running again for 2015. Here's the current SPIE 50 day forecast:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #724 on: May 11, 2015, 12:48:53 AM »
Further to a discussion on the blog, and a previous look at the Canadian Ice Service ice development map, here's the latest one for the Western Arctic. An explanation of the "egg code" and colour scheme can be found here:

http://ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=19CDA64E-1

Notice in particular all the pale green bits mixed in with the brown.

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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #725 on: May 11, 2015, 06:33:02 PM »
We're almost halfway through May and the dip on the DMI 80N temp graph has dipped extremely low:



It is also clearly visible on this NCEP anomaly map, although there are positive anomalies near the Alaskan and Siberian coasts:



If things remain like this through May and part of June, there's a severely decreased chance of this melting season ending up in the top 3. The GFS weather model has been very fickle, changing from one forecast to the next, but something like this will be needed to keep the excitement going:
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #726 on: May 11, 2015, 07:16:08 PM »
Neven: melt season cancelled!! It didn't even start!! ;D

Seriously, the forecasts have been very varying but IMO it seems that the models foresees warm air intrusion just to back off those solutions later.

Never mind, the Chukchi Sea should be empty quite soon given the high temps there. Despite the cold it looks like high pressure will dominate the Arctic weather the next 1½ weeks.

Most important now I think is:
  • any big melt ponds?
  • how much transportation through Fram Strait?
  • how much cloud is imminent?
  • how much warm air intrusion will occur the next 2-3 weeks

Any one who agrees with this or am I completely lost?

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #727 on: May 11, 2015, 08:09:24 PM »

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #728 on: May 11, 2015, 08:24:38 PM »
Quote
Neven: melt season cancelled!! It didn't even start!! ;D

That'd be funny, wouldn't it?  :D 8)

If the melting-momentum-via-melt-ponds-theory is correct, some of the charm of watching the melting season might be spoiled.  :-\
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #729 on: May 11, 2015, 08:28:04 PM »
any big melt ponds?

It was a bit cloudy yesterday, but I reckon the landfast ice off the Mackenzie Delta is turning a bit blue on MODIS, apart from the damp patches pictured above. AMSR2 seems to suggest as much also.

Forecast highs for the Mackenzie River today:

Fort Simpson, 27°C
Norman Wells, 24°C
Inuvik, 14°C
Tuktoyaktuk, 11°C

Getting back to the ice development map above, it will also be interesting to discover how the pale green bits progress. "Thin First-year Ice. 30-70 centimetres"
« Last Edit: May 11, 2015, 08:34:06 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #730 on: May 11, 2015, 09:14:09 PM »
Neven: just checked the ECMWF 12z run and to me it seems like it is backing somewhat from the warm air intrusion. GFS 12z run have some warm air intrusion to the Beaufort Sea and chukchi but the rest of the Arctic seems to be guarded by a Juggernaut Cold that just won't to go away for the next 5-7 days...

I think we may expect slower melt rate to be in charge soon as the most periphic ice soon is gone with the wind  ;D

My guess for 2015: 4,4-4,8 million km2 at sea ice minimum in September...

/LMV

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #731 on: May 11, 2015, 09:32:58 PM »
Mackenzie river break up May 10 in Tulita

http://websta.me/p/982213615333966721_551040543

Oh yeah, and a tip:
#breakup isn't a very useful hashtag when searching for river breakups.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #732 on: May 11, 2015, 10:35:42 PM »
The Arctic is a complicated system that no one thing determines what happens. Are melt ponds important? Yes. are they the only important determinant? No Clouds are important as are winds, storms, SST, space between ice flows, size of ice flows, blocking bridges, those pesky troughs and ridges and how they line up... All these things are important and the timing of their occurrence is even more important. If a critical ice bridge collapses early in the season a lot of export can happen, conversely if late then very little will happen. if strong winds develop for most of the season towards the fram a lot of export can occur. Then of course the dominating winds can send ice in directions where it stays in the Arctic. Lots of cloud hampers melt. and on and on it goes. 2007 and 2012 were situations where lots of melt happened but the reasons were different for some of the melt. 2013 and 2014 saw much less melt and again some of the reason were different in each year.
IMO trying to predict ice melt based on one indicator is a fools errand because in the end the Arctic complexity can change things very quickly. And has been proven already this year, trying to find out how it all works is a very deadly study.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #733 on: May 11, 2015, 11:45:02 PM »
We're almost halfway through May and the dip on the DMI 80N temp graph has dipped extremely low:

<snippage>

It is also clearly visible on this NCEP anomaly map, although there are positive anomalies near the Alaskan and Siberian coasts...

Just crazy. Like the heat suddenly bounced off of a brick wall.

Of concern... The coolness doesn't seem to extend much south past 80 (looking at the Canadian temps), so I'd look out for the higher  gradient in temperature generating more extreme weather.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #734 on: May 12, 2015, 12:11:08 AM »
Neven: just checked the ECMWF 12z run and to me it seems like it is backing somewhat from the warm air intrusion.

Not quite sure why you think so LMV, seems to me like the likelihood of heavy melting in Beaufort and Chukchi is increasing with the latest ECMWF run as well. Kind of strange looking dipoleish setup, and of course very interesting.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2015, 12:28:08 AM by Rubikscube »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #735 on: May 12, 2015, 12:12:21 AM »
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Neven: melt season cancelled!! It didn't even start!! ;D

That'd be funny, wouldn't it?  :D 8)

If the melting-momentum-via-melt-ponds-theory is correct, some of the charm of watching the melting season might be spoiled.  :-\

I found the maps below from an entry of your blog, Neven. Mid June 2007 and 2011, where are most melt ponds?? Not north of 80 deg N, but in Beaufort Chukchi and ESS.



2012 figure is impressive but still note the amount in the periphery.




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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #736 on: May 12, 2015, 12:23:02 AM »
Chris Reynolds wrote an awesome post in Nevens. Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS have become the graveyard of MYI in the new Arctic.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/05/20142015-winter-analysis.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d111912c970c#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d111912c970c

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #737 on: May 12, 2015, 12:40:33 AM »
Mackenzie river break up May 10 in Tulita.

Thanks very much for the link to that video Doogi. It saves me the effort of trying to find one!

Here's my first draft of a visualisation of Mackenzie River flow post 2007. E&OE!

Note that currently 2015 is ahead of other recent years, but behind 2010/11. Note also that 2012 stands out as having a second peak significantly higher than the first:
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oren

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #738 on: May 12, 2015, 08:16:19 AM »
Thanks. I was just trying yesterday to find such a chart.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #739 on: May 12, 2015, 08:38:03 AM »
Albedo has plummeted over the entire Mackenzie Delta region.

The warmth continues for the forseable future.  It gets muted for two days over the ice before 20C+ temps on a strong Southerly flow reach the arctic shores.

If this happens the transition from frozen to warm pool will be incredibly fast


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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #740 on: May 12, 2015, 09:31:50 AM »
I was just trying yesterday to find such a chart.

Me too. I couldn't find one, so I built my own!
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #741 on: May 12, 2015, 09:40:48 AM »
Albedo has plummeted over the entire Mackenzie Delta region.

See also this from Wipneus:



and this rather hazy view from Aqua:
« Last Edit: May 12, 2015, 09:48:20 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #742 on: May 12, 2015, 10:12:05 AM »
Quote
Neven: melt season cancelled!! It didn't even start!! ;D

That'd be funny, wouldn't it?  :D 8)

If the melting-momentum-via-melt-ponds-theory is correct, some of the charm of watching the melting season might be spoiled.  :-\

I found the maps below from an entry of your blog, Neven. Mid June 2007 and 2011, where are most melt ponds?? Not north of 80 deg N, but in Beaufort Chukchi and ESS.



2012 figure is impressive but still note the amount in the periphery.


Hmmm, yes. Maybe I should read my own blog posts better.  ;)

It just seems so very cold now over much of the Arctic.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #743 on: May 12, 2015, 11:15:15 AM »
Here's an animation of the 925hPa temperature anomaly from Apr 9 to May 9, 2001 to 2015.



A pretty mild period for this year, though broadly in line with the anomalies seen since 2003.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #744 on: May 12, 2015, 11:33:49 AM »
Both the JAXA and DMI 30% extent metrics are back at the lowest values for the date since their respective records began. DMI 15% looks like it is too, but they don't publish the numbers.

According to the (un)RealScience blog this very morning:

Quote
The New Normal In The Arctic [is] Cold Summers

I beg to differ:

The New Normal In The Arctic

« Last Edit: May 12, 2015, 12:11:23 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #745 on: May 12, 2015, 01:31:48 PM »
My prediction is that we see a fast decline in extend in the next two months. Then see a slow decline in july-september.

The central basin looks in decent shape, but the regions around the central basin look in poor conditions.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #746 on: May 12, 2015, 01:56:34 PM »
Highly fractured Arctic, just in the middle. It doesn't seem to be very cohesive, the fractures are following the main drift, Beaufort on left side and the transpolar drift.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #747 on: May 12, 2015, 04:36:20 PM »
Here's an animation of the 925hPa temperature anomaly from Apr 9 to May 9, 2001 to 2015.

A pretty mild period for this year, though broadly in line with the anomalies seen since 2003.
I tend to agree. 2004 seems to be the most definitive shift.  2011 actually had some serious cold spots.  That said, I really am not picking out an obvious pattern, past the early shift.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #748 on: May 12, 2015, 05:41:43 PM »
Mean while, it looks like the Beaufort, Chukchi and Kara get crushed over the next few days.

Looking out 141 hours, which by consensus here seems to be close to the edge of the reliable predictive envelope, temperatures well above freezing over large stretches of ice.  Looking at the anomaly map, possibly more relevant, serious heat in the drainages leading to the peripheral seas in question.

The snap shots posted are pretty typical of what GFS thinks we'll be seeing over the next five days.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #749 on: May 12, 2015, 06:10:27 PM »
See below the current state of the ice in the areas where that heat will be landing over the next 5 days.  Fram added as I saw some heat running that-a-way as well.  Not including Baffin Bay, Hudson and the Labrador sea, but they all get hit as well.

I would not be surprised if we see multiple century drops, possibly even double century drops.
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