I don't suppose this forecast will stand the test of the next few days but the whole basin is getting smoked in this.
Normally I'd agree Siffy, I tend to be wary of forecasts more than 100 hours out, but in this circumstance I'm inclined to buy it. That ridge is stout, perhaps the remnants of dolphin could set it in motion, or "knock it down" but I'm skeptical. I expect the remnants to split, some heads into the Bering sea, the rest heads to California and reinforce the southwest US trough that's attempting a "May miracle" for California. Persistence.
Northern Alaska discussion. Hope folks don't mind me posting these, they can be technical at times, but they are the pros, and I look to them for guidance. Fires could be a problem real quick...
Bolded for emphasis.
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SLIGHTLY RETREAT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NUDGES THE
RIDGE IN THAT DIRECTION AS IT MOVES UP THE WEST COAST AND OVER
THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL PUSH BACK WESTWARD AND THE
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLYAT
LOWER LEVELS. THE HEIGHTS AT 500 WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY HOT OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF NORTHERN ALASKA FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH NO REPRIEVE IN SIGHT
DURING THIS WEEK.
INTERIOR...VERY HOT AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE INTERIOR. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE WELL SET UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK HOWEVER THERE WILL BE NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PROVIDE ANY DYNAMICS.
ARCTIC COAST...FOR THE MOST PART...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ARCTIC COAST. IT WILL PROVIDE
PARALLEL FLOW TO THE COAST WITH A HINT OF OFFSHORE. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL SET UP OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
ON TUE EVENING AND THEN SLIDE EAST AND BUILD THROUGH WED. A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP BY THU ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND
ARCTIC SLOPE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS TO A MOSTLY OFFSHORE
COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST.
WEST COAST...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WITH THE
PLETHORA OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTH ON THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER MOST AREAS THIS
WEEK.
NO REAL STRONG DEFINED AREAS OF FRONTOGENESIS DEPICTED IN THE 500H
FIELD WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF SOME WEAKER VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAK SHORT WAVES.
WEAK Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AREAS SHOWS
NOTHING THAT CAN BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF ANY DYNAMICS TO SET
OFF EVEN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP NEARLY ALL
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE INTERIOR WITH DESPERATELY LOW RH
VALUES. RH VALUES OF LESS THAN 15% WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RAPID SNOW MELT AND AND BREAK UP WILL CREATE HIGH
WATER CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREA RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AS
DEPICTED IN THE WATCHES WHICH ARE FOR THE PORCUPINE RIVER AND THE
WARNING FOR THE YUKON RIVER ON THE YK DELTA FOR ALAKANUK AND
EMMONAK.
&&
http://www.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=FXAK69PAFG&type=publicLower 80s? That's almost as warm as it will be here in Florida, just south of Tampa Bay. Were due for the mid to upper 80s.
And it's only mid May.
Meanwhile, it's snowing in parts of the northern high plains/Midwest, wonder where that displaced cold came from?
I love highly anomalous weather. If you want to really giggle, take a gander at fantasy land hour 384 in the gfs, basically no sub freezing temps, save Greenland.
First attachment is the 8-10 day 500mb geopotential anomalies from ECMWF/GFS/CMC
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.htmlSecond attachment is the 8-14 days NAEFS temp probability. For those unfamiliar the NAEFS are a combination of GFS and CMC ensembles.