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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1700 on: July 01, 2015, 08:45:46 AM »
Jai: no, they would likely not. If such a warm air mass would make it through the whole way to the NP it would meet a cold surface giving a hella of foggy weather and only a few degs. Nevertheless it would be bad for the existing ice there.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1701 on: July 01, 2015, 09:45:22 AM »
Cooling aside, storms are hurting within the pack,




Indeed,



MODIS images show very broken ice. It is amusing how storms make ice diverge and break down, pushing ice toward pack edges and slowing down extent drop. But that helps volume drop then when the edge retreats.

@ Nightvid Cole, I have to acknowledge the importance of local melting or concentration drop :-| Just learning :-)

Will the edge get as far as this location or will it 'just' eat the MYI that lies in between?

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1702 on: July 01, 2015, 10:29:22 AM »
Alright, i'll be my own guest, then. Illustrating yesterday's proposition, let's eye-ball the
.

Then substruct 9100 km^3 for this June - the figure i was talking about yesterday (which is -8200km^3 for June 1...27th from DMI, extrapolated for whole June) - from the PIOMASS June 1st value (~21500 km^3). The result would be ~12400 km^3 by July 1st. Which is ~1300 km^3 less than in 2013 and ~2000 km^3 less than in 2014, for July 1st, isn't it?

12400 km^3 in PIOMASS terms is in fact exactly between 2011 and 2012 figures, with difference from both being ~<500km^3.

Someone said we don't have the extra ice from the "rebound" melted away, yesterday. Well, if DMI is not utter lunatism, then we actually do. Right now. It is July 1st, gentlemen.

Really can't wait for what PIOMASS will show in its next report. I still stick with my prediction for  significant chances for "most ice melt for the month of June _ever_" in it.
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oren

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1703 on: July 01, 2015, 12:37:57 PM »
Alright, i'll be my own guest, then. Illustrating yesterday's proposition, let's eye-ball the
.

Then substruct 9100 km^3 for this June - the figure i was talking about yesterday (which is -8200km^3 for June 1...27th from DMI, extrapolated for whole June) - from the PIOMASS June 1st value (~21500 km^3). The result would be ~12400 km^3 by July 1st. Which is ~1300 km^3 less than in 2013 and ~2000 km^3 less than in 2014, for July 1st, isn't it?

12400 km^3 in PIOMASS terms is in fact exactly between 2011 and 2012 figures, with difference from both being ~<500km^3.

Someone said we don't have the extra ice from the "rebound" melted away, yesterday. Well, if DMI is not utter lunatism, then we actually do. Right now. It is July 1st, gentlemen.

Really can't wait for what PIOMASS will show in its next report. I still stick with my prediction for  significant chances for "most ice melt for the month of June _ever_" in it.

Assuming the models correlate, DMI shows 23400 on June 1st, which is higher than PIOMASS at 21500. I'm taking a proportional loss of volume which could bring us to 8400 lost, and 13000 km^3 predicted for July 1st.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1704 on: July 01, 2015, 12:47:23 PM »
I don't believe the loss' difference between DMI and PIOMASS would be directly proportional to absolute numbers' (any given moment) difference. It is my belief that different methods of modelling ice would usually result in quite different numbers for same dates yet in the same time produce much more similar drops and gains. It is dynamics which is very much the point of those models, and it's exactly gains and losses over time those models gets verified with, i reckon. Which is why gains and losses should match more than absolute numbers.

I may be wrong - more, i certainly am to some degree, - but the truth is somewhere in the middle between your point and mine, and i dare to say it's closer to my point of view than to yours. I.e., OK, it's probably not 9100, yes; but neither 8400, i bet. Perhaps something like 8800...8900? In any case, doesn't help any much even if it's 8400. Still very close to 2011 July 1st volume, it'd be. Still massive change from June 1st state of "well above 2013/2014". Still "the end of the rebound and large melt-back".
« Last Edit: July 01, 2015, 01:08:40 PM by F.Tnioli »
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gideonlow

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1705 on: July 01, 2015, 01:32:49 PM »
I have to agree that you're on to something major happing.  These numbers would mean about 40% of all the ice as of June 1st disappeared in just 30 days, with about 75 days of melt remaining.  Truly remarkable!  I'm reminded of the discussion some time back about the meaning of the ice going "poof!" 

In this context, the fact that extent remains relatively high might suggest that the potential for melting LOTS of ice (in absolute terms, not just as a percentage of remaining) is still very high . . . Perhaps even as high as it was on June 1st?  If we subtract ANOTHER 9100 km^3 by August 1st, where would that leave us?? That's a very scary thought.  If the Arctic was going to pull some kind of major unexpected surprise, it would probably look something like this  :o

Cheers,

Gideon

Alright, i'll be my own guest, then. Illustrating yesterday's proposition, let's eye-ball the
.

Then substruct 9100 km^3 for this June - the figure i was talking about yesterday (which is -8200km^3 for June 1...27th from DMI, extrapolated for whole June) - from the PIOMASS June 1st value (~21500 km^3). The result would be ~12400 km^3 by July 1st. Which is ~1300 km^3 less than in 2013 and ~2000 km^3 less than in 2014, for July 1st, isn't it?

12400 km^3 in PIOMASS terms is in fact exactly between 2011 and 2012 figures, with difference from both being ~<500km^3.

Someone said we don't have the extra ice from the "rebound" melted away, yesterday. Well, if DMI is not utter lunatism, then we actually do. Right now. It is July 1st, gentlemen.

Really can't wait for what PIOMASS will show in its next report. I still stick with my prediction for  significant chances for "most ice melt for the month of June _ever_" in it.

plinius

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1706 on: July 01, 2015, 01:34:44 PM »
well, I do not believe in something major happening. This would in my eyes rather be PIOMAS correcting itself and returning to the Cryosat baseline. Cryosat did not measure an increase in ice volume fall 2014, in contrast to the PIOMAS prediction. Should we be surprised if the model surplus now starts to disappear?

Richard Rathbone

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1707 on: July 01, 2015, 01:55:39 PM »
I do not see how my argument based on DMI data for June 27 could be opposed by any data from PIOMASS which is month+ old, considering my argument was and still is not about month+ past times, but about "right now".

P.S. It would be even more interesting if PIOMASS won't reflect the June's volume drop we see in DMI data, any much. But i think, it will.

You claimed that the rebound was not only over, the excess ice accumulated from it had gone too.

PIOMAS says that as of last month the rebound was still continuing to accumulate extra ice. The accumulation of ice from the 2012 low is unprecedented in the PIOMAS era and I reckon there is no way it can vanish in a single month.

No it won't have gone, but if we have had a fairly aggressive spring melt it might offset it.

May wasn't aggressive, and I'd have wanted another 500k gone from CT area by the solstice to be calling June aggressive right now.  I'll take Schroeder's melt pond model over CT area once the numbers from that are available but as of today, I don't see June as particularly aggressive. I expect to still see the seasonal signal in PIOMAS anomaly, i.e. that June 2015 anomaly is below May 2015 anomaly, but I don't expect to see June 2015 below June 2014 and I certainly don't expect to see it below June 2012.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1708 on: July 01, 2015, 02:11:38 PM »
... I don't expect to see June 2015 below June 2014 and I certainly don't expect to see it below June 2012.
DMI stands for Danish Meteorological Institute, iirc. And their data says, June 27 2015 is FAR below June 27 2014 - by some 2900 km^3.

You do not "expect" to see it. This, i guess, means that you do not believe in validity of DMI data we have here - and more, i guess this means your opinion is that DMI data is complete lunacy, totally inaccurate, wrong and void and null.

Ergo, my question to you: do you have any information whatsoever to demonstrate inability of DMI to produce any sensible results in terms of daily record of Arctic sea ice volume?

If you do, please present. If you don't (or if you're unable to present), then... I'll agree to disagree and shut myself up.


So what it'll be, Richard?
« Last Edit: July 01, 2015, 02:23:35 PM by F.Tnioli »
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jplotinus

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1709 on: July 01, 2015, 02:57:48 PM »
Temperatures in the eastern portion of CAA seem stuck in the single digits (0°/5°) and are forecast to remain that way well into July. I don't know how "normal" that is, but it isn't indicative of much in the way of "torching" in an area where plenty of ice remains--northern Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1710 on: July 01, 2015, 03:12:22 PM »
Much heat comes not from above, but from below, it seems. "Torch" is a word for from above, yes, may be not much of that. But "cook" is the word for from below, and that, i don't know how big might be there. Point is, if there will be much cooking, then even little torching on top of that and in the same time - would suffice.

Torching the cooking, hehe...

Getting old and poetic.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2015, 03:21:54 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1711 on: July 01, 2015, 05:17:13 PM »
Slater forecast has interesting spatial pattern:


Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1712 on: July 01, 2015, 06:24:11 PM »
It's almost identical to today's sea ice concentration map. Surely something will melt in the next 75 days?

Edit: Oops, make that 50 days, but still . . .
« Last Edit: July 01, 2015, 06:35:01 PM by Nick_Naylor »

lochbryn

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1713 on: July 01, 2015, 06:25:51 PM »
That looks like warm water from the Pacific gobbling up ice - notice those red fingers intruding very far in!

Buddy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1714 on: July 01, 2015, 06:48:15 PM »
Quote
That looks like warm water from the Pacific gobbling up ice - notice those red fingers intruding very far in!

YES....going to get interesting....
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1715 on: July 01, 2015, 06:48:36 PM »
It's almost identical to today's sea ice concentration map. Surely something will melt in the next 75 days?

Edit: Oops, make that 50 days, but still . . .

The map is the *probability* of ice cover at all, not the concentration. A value of 50% means a 50% chance of any ice at all (>15% conc.)

pikaia

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1716 on: July 01, 2015, 06:54:35 PM »
The map shows a significant probability of ice in Hudson Bay, even though it is normally ice free at that time of year, so I do not believe it.

ktonine

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1717 on: July 01, 2015, 07:10:27 PM »
Temperatures in the eastern portion of CAA seem stuck in the single digits (0°/5°) and are forecast to remain that way well into July. I don't know how "normal" that is, but it isn't indicative of much in the way of "torching" in an area where plenty of ice remains--northern Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay.

Temperatures in that area are constrained by the ocean temperature.  It's very, very difficult to get temperatures much above 0C when you're sitting on top of an ice bath.  The 'torch' will still exist - but almost all of the energy has to go towards melting ice or into the ocean - not raising air temperatures.

AySz88

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1718 on: July 01, 2015, 07:16:53 PM »
The map shows a significant probability of ice in Hudson Bay, even though it is normally ice free at that time of year, so I do not believe it.

Yeah, I agree that the map isn't to be trusted. The model is "dumb" in the sense that it is given information about how much ice exists at each concentration, but not where the ice is.  It's interesting that it is fairly successful with so little information, but turning the calculation into a map doesn't really make that much sense - it's just the concentration map with a caxis (color axis) remapping.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1719 on: July 01, 2015, 08:58:02 PM »
charctic graphic shows a 30% increase in daily melt rate today, if this trend continues it will begin to rival the 2012 rates in the coming weeks.  looks like the cliff has finally hit.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1720 on: July 01, 2015, 09:27:33 PM »
The map shows a significant probability of ice in Hudson Bay, even though it is normally ice free at that time of year, so I do not believe it.

Yeah, I agree that the map isn't to be trusted. The model is "dumb" in the sense that it is given information about how much ice exists at each concentration, but not where the ice is.  It's interesting that it is fairly successful with so little information, but turning the calculation into a map doesn't really make that much sense - it's just the concentration map with a caxis (color axis) remapping.

Perhaps the problem could be remedied by accounting for April or May PIOMAS thickness. Hudson is only ~1m thick, while the ice in the CAB is about double that.

Blizzard_of_Oz

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1721 on: July 01, 2015, 09:45:46 PM »
The map shows a significant probability of ice in Hudson Bay, even though it is normally ice free at that time of year, so I do not believe it.

Yeah, I agree that the map isn't to be trusted. The model is "dumb" in the sense that it is given information about how much ice exists at each concentration, but not where the ice is.

There is a fair degree of regional information in the  map i.e. the same probabilities are not applied in all regions. However, you are correct that Hudson Bay (& Baffin Bay for that matter) should be even more "regionalized" - this may improve June-Aug forecasts.
September has traditionally been my focus, at which time, Hudson Bay plays no role. Further forecast improvements are planned...

Regarding performance, see: http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2014/post-season
- scroll down to Regional Contributions. No forecast is perfect, but this map is "competitive" with the big models. Real forecasting, complete with spatial patterns, is difficult!

Also, some of you may be interested in this: http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/
It should be running operationally in the next day or two.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1722 on: July 01, 2015, 10:37:28 PM »
Temperatures in the eastern portion of CAA seem stuck in the single digits (0°/5°) and are forecast to remain that way well into July. I don't know how "normal" that is, but it isn't indicative of much in the way of "torching" in an area where plenty of ice remains--northern Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay.

Temperatures in that area are constrained by the ocean temperature.  It's very, very difficult to get temperatures much above 0C when you're sitting on top of an ice bath.  The 'torch' will still exist - but almost all of the energy has to go towards melting ice or into the ocean - not raising air temperatures.

Agreed, surface temperatures over the sea ice in summer are really of little use. Perhaps a better indicator is 850mb temperature, as it can indicate warm influx of air, or indeed cold air in place. The temperature of air however tells us little about actual surface flux or sunlight or infrared radiation.

Furthermore a lot of the products people use are actual values, using anomalies tells us whether things are normal or not.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1723 on: July 02, 2015, 01:12:04 AM »
Further forecast improvements are planned...

I'm already impressed. And if melt doesn't pick up some time soon, that map looks quite good, actually.  ;)
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1724 on: July 02, 2015, 02:43:33 AM »
Also, some of you may be interested in this: http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/
It should be running operationally in the next day or two.

Thanks for that info Andrew. I clicked the link and also discovered your snow cover stuff, which is of particular interest to me and some of my more "skeptical" readers just at the moment!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/06/alaska-may-snow-cover-at-record-low-levels/

Here's the Topaz 4 version for July 1st:

« Last Edit: July 02, 2015, 02:55:27 AM by Jim Hunt »
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AySz88

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1725 on: July 02, 2015, 05:50:49 AM »
The map shows a significant probability of ice in Hudson Bay, even though it is normally ice free at that time of year, so I do not believe it.

Yeah, I agree that the map isn't to be trusted. The model is "dumb" in the sense that it is given information about how much ice exists at each concentration, but not where the ice is.

There is a fair degree of regional information in the  map i.e. the same probabilities are not applied in all regions. However, you are correct that Hudson Bay (& Baffin Bay for that matter) should be even more "regionalized" - this may improve June-Aug forecasts.
September has traditionally been my focus, at which time, Hudson Bay plays no role. Further forecast improvements are planned...

Hmm, I stand corrected.  But where should we be looking for info on how the model is getting regional information? (I had been looking at your 2013 poster but I didn't see any mention of it, thus my impression that there wasn't any.)

epiphyte

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1726 on: July 02, 2015, 07:02:41 AM »

Agreed, surface temperatures over the sea ice in summer are really of little use. Perhaps a better indicator is 850mb temperature, as it can indicate warm influx of air, or indeed cold air in place.

Quite. Just to add that for those like me who don't intuitively interpret static forecast maps, nullschool gives a very useful perspective on this. Flipping between the 850mb vs. 1000mb vs. Surface temp. displays helps you distinguish the cooling from the melting ice from the warming which is causing the ice to melt... My rule-of-thumb is that regardless of the surface temp,  if the 1000mb is above freezing, it's definitely melting, and if the 850mb is above -7 degrees C, it's not freezing.


seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1727 on: July 02, 2015, 01:23:47 PM »
The forecast of weather conditions conducive to melting (ie a high over the American-Pacific side of the Arctic) seems to be coming closer, but it's still far out. Even so, there's plenty going on as it is. The question is: how much is hidden beneath the surface? How much potential is there?

The runs (both yesterdays and todays) start out pretty normal only to get worse and worse for the ice the further out they go. This means that the most spectacullar and destructive setups are also the least likely, but even at a reliable 96h, the conditions are favouring strong melt.

Its worth noticing that virtually every run in the last couple of days have yielded similarly apocalyptic scenarios in the 168h+ range, and I don't think that is a coincidence. Usually these huge warm air intrusions are forecasted when there is a scenario with a massive anti-cyclone, often accompanied by a moderate arctic cyclone, to create a strong pressure gradient that is remarkably stable. What happens then is that even slight changes in the systems strength, position and stability causes the predicted torch to weaken dramatically maybe even fizzle out and disappear entirely. However, this time it seems like the heat sources are so abundant and so ideally positioned that even ordinary looking setups with remarkably weak pressure gradients are capable of producing wild scenarios. If you compare yesterday's ECMWF to the 00 from today, you will the that the runs differs quite a lot when you do beyond 168h, but they all spell disaster for the ice because there is so many differnet ways of getting there.

The caveat is for course that there is always a significant chance that a long term forecast abruptly desides to flip flop, but with so little snow cover left, the likelyhood of a July cliff unlike anything ever seen looks as big as it can possibly get on a June 30th.

This is a fantastic post and is spot on.

Agreed. It now really looks like something interesting is going to happen.

If I may ask, any changes of the weather prospects during the past two days?

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1728 on: July 02, 2015, 01:50:11 PM »
Ready or not, here basin-wide melt ponds come: (Source: MyOcean, taken from http://met.no/OSISAF.b7C_w7HM06.ips)


F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1729 on: July 02, 2015, 03:42:29 PM »
Warning! Warning! The pole is wet! Repeat, the North Pole is WET!

Any clouds there? Looks like s0me 98% or so, and if there is sun, 2% can quickly get to doubles...

Edit, self-answer: nope, no Sun, tons of clouds, possibly raining a little? Very recent photo and the camera is wet, and large ponds are in view. 2%? Looks like quite more.

« Last Edit: July 02, 2015, 03:56:09 PM by F.Tnioli »
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plinius

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1730 on: July 02, 2015, 04:54:20 PM »
if you look at the series of images, you can also see how the melt ponds are expanding.

Now, one weird thing for me:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2015183000000-2015183000500.250m.jpg

Today we have a quite good view on the rapidly progressing Chukchi bite, first time in a week. If you look at the edge between ice and free ocean next to Wrangel, there is a very prominent, quite brilliant white edge. Why?

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1731 on: July 02, 2015, 05:38:29 PM »
Century drop yesterday (10.204 - 10.103 million km2) according to NSIDC: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ .
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1732 on: July 02, 2015, 06:14:52 PM »
Warning! Warning! The pole is wet! Repeat, the North Pole is WET!

In fact it is of course not actually at the North Pole.  IMB buoy 2015D is at 86.90 N, 2.57 W. Here's the latest temperature profiles:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2015-imbs/#2015D-Temp

A way to go yet before serious bottom melt sets in.
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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1733 on: July 02, 2015, 08:29:31 PM »
If I may ask, any changes of the weather prospects during the past two days?

Sounds like an apropriate question to ask. First, the thing that seemed very plausible two days ago is now almost certain to become reality, that is (to steal one of frivs colorful expressions) the Pacific side is about to get "nuked". In about 36 hours from now, a massive heat wave will enter ESS and grow to cover most of the Pacific side by the 120h mark, after which forecasts start to shake, the 850 hPa temps will be beyond anything I can remember seeing up there, for a sustained time period at least.

The longer term forecasts are now trying to decide whether or not this Pacific heat dome will be able to link up with other pools hot air over central Siberia and Greenland in order to put virtually all of the remaining sea ice under one big sledge hammer. Yesterdays 12 run featured such a linkup in its "fantasy range", but despite todays 00 being almost the opposite it still features strong melt throughout the entire run. For melt intensity is to return to normal or below normal by July 10th, one both have to chase away the pacific heat and block more heat from entering the arctic somewhere else. Something which seems possible, but highly unlikely.

Even though one can presume July will be of to a flying start, there is a lot of catching up to do (area and extent wise at least). The maps attached below show the average sea ice concentration for July 1st (2002-2014), 2015-average and 2015-2012 respectively. It now looks like the total amount of ice in the central regions is pretty average (slightly ahead maybe), but actually 2012 isn't terribly far ahead. Baffin and Hudson are apparently inflating the numbers pretty significantly, more so than Kara is pulling in the other direction, at least compared to 2012.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2015, 08:49:08 PM by Rubikscube »

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1734 on: July 02, 2015, 08:53:38 PM »
if you look at the series of images, you can also see how the melt ponds are expanding.

Now, one weird thing for me:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2015183000000-2015183000500.250m.jpg

Today we have a quite good view on the rapidly progressing Chukchi bite, first time in a week. If you look at the edge between ice and free ocean next to Wrangel, there is a very prominent, quite brilliant white edge. Why?

The band of clouds, you mean?

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1735 on: July 02, 2015, 09:22:10 PM »
If I may ask, any changes of the weather prospects during the past two days?

... The maps attached below show the average sea ice concentration for July 1st (2002-2014), 2015-average and 2015-2012 respectively. It now looks like the total amount of ice in the central regions is pretty average (slightly ahead maybe), but actually 2012 isn't terribly far ahead. Baffin and Hudson are apparently inflating the numbers pretty significantly, more so than Kara is pulling in the other direction, at least compared to 2012.
looking at those maps, the Arctic seems so well prepared for very fast melting! Indeed Baffin and Hudson "fooled" the really relevant numbers. From this view, 2015 is so far ahead 2014. Bad weather coming too.

Thanks for the reply and the maps, Rubikscube.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1736 on: July 02, 2015, 09:31:06 PM »
I have here for you a 12-day animation of SST anomalies that shows how the massive heat disappeared from Bering Strait (I know someone said that's because it's an anomaly, and as the ice retreated fast this year, you get very red patches; but still, the heat didn't show up until a few weeks ago, whereas the extent anomaly has been large ever since the max):
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plinius

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1737 on: July 02, 2015, 09:42:07 PM »
Quote
The band of clouds, you mean?

Look for Wrangel island, follow along the long axis of Wrangel one length of the island towards the east. The big water area is the Chukchi bite working its way north rapidly. Now you look all around the boundary of this water and you will see that the majority of the ice edge has a quite brilliantly white rim.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1738 on: July 02, 2015, 10:02:03 PM »
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

Richard Rathbone

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1739 on: July 02, 2015, 10:16:30 PM »
... I don't expect to see June 2015 below June 2014 and I certainly don't expect to see it below June 2012.
DMI stands for Danish Meteorological Institute, iirc. And their data says, June 27 2015 is FAR below June 27 2014 - by some 2900 km^3.

You do not "expect" to see it. This, i guess, means that you do not believe in validity of DMI data we have here - and more, i guess this means your opinion is that DMI data is complete lunacy, totally inaccurate, wrong and void and null.

Ergo, my question to you: do you have any information whatsoever to demonstrate inability of DMI to produce any sensible results in terms of daily record of Arctic sea ice volume?

If you do, please present. If you don't (or if you're unable to present), then... I'll agree to disagree and shut myself up.


So what it'll be, Richard?

You guessed it right. I regard PIOMAS as more reliable than DMI.

CICE can be used in the way DMI use it, but it wasn't designed with that use in mind (they are using a climate model for weather), and that requires a leap of faith to accept in the absence of scientific publication backing it up.


ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1740 on: July 02, 2015, 11:01:46 PM »
... I don't expect to see June 2015 below June 2014 and I certainly don't expect to see it below June 2012.
DMI stands for Danish Meteorological Institute, iirc. And their data says, June 27 2015 is FAR below June 27 2014 - by some 2900 km^3.

You do not "expect" to see it. This, i guess, means that you do not believe in validity of DMI data we have here - and more, i guess this means your opinion is that DMI data is complete lunacy, totally inaccurate, wrong and void and null.

Ergo, my question to you: do you have any information whatsoever to demonstrate inability of DMI to produce any sensible results in terms of daily record of Arctic sea ice volume?

If you do, please present. If you don't (or if you're unable to present), then... I'll agree to disagree and shut myself up.


So what it'll be, Richard?

You guessed it right. I regard PIOMAS as more reliable than DMI.

CICE can be used in the way DMI use it, but it wasn't designed with that use in mind (they are using a climate model for weather), and that requires a leap of faith to accept in the absence of scientific publication backing it up.

I agree. Unproven doesn't mean it's worthless, DMI may turn out to be better than PIOMAS. But despite enthusiasm round here, the case is not strongly supported. A good start would be the release of gridded data and a grid box area, together with lat/lon for grid boxes, that's all we'd need to do a proper analysis.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1741 on: July 03, 2015, 07:19:10 AM »
HYCOM predicts flash melting of remaining ice in Hudson Bay. A storm will hit there in three-four days with south winds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1742 on: July 03, 2015, 07:27:08 AM »
HYCOM predicts flash melting of remaining ice in Hudson Bay. A storm will hit there in three-four days with south winds
That could produce a rather spectacular drop in area and extent numbers...
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1743 on: July 03, 2015, 07:48:40 AM »
Comparing Beaufort MYI 20 days ago and yesterday. The edge did not retreat much because of floes diverging and drifting toward coast due to storms. Compare however the size of the average block. Still, these are huge and the amount of open ocean seems limited. Is this ice going to melt out?

The ice closer to the coast has acquired a very dark color. Smoked, literally?





Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1744 on: July 03, 2015, 07:59:22 AM »
GFS 00z run is a really bad one for the ice! Especially if the major HP dome succeeds to materialize...

If it would, we would likely see a rather interesting drop in extent and area numbers next week... :)

If Hudson Bay get hit by that cyclone it would surely add to a strong drop in area and extent...

//LMV

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1745 on: July 03, 2015, 08:19:19 AM »
CICE can be used in the way DMI use it, but it wasn't designed with that use in mind (they are using a climate model for weather), and that requires a leap of faith to accept in the absence of scientific publication backing it up.

Hopefully I can add a bit of clarity here.

CICE is certainly used within a number of climate/Earth system models (most notably the NCAR CESM) and has traditionally been developed for that purpose, but on it's own, I wouldn't call it a "climate model".

Climate modeling is a boundary value problem, whereas numerical weather prediction (NWP) is an initial value problem - they each have a different purpose. The same model (i.e. code base of physics) could perhaps be used for either application, depending on how it is set up. e.g. a model typically used for NWP could be used in climate mode and a model traditionally used for climate applications could be used for NWP. The UK Met Office / Hadley Centre apply the same "unified" model for both NWP and climate modeling, but (I believe) different aspects of the model are used for given applications. A bit off topic, but just FYI, weather models (e.g. GFS & WRF/NAM and ECMWF's IFS) include sea ice more as a boundary condition for the atmosphere - very basic thermodynamics (often using specified albedo and ice thickness) and no dynamics as concentration is specified from observations.

The more pertinent questions are:

1) can the model physics be applied to the desired scales (grid resolution / timestep). Does the model resolve the required processes for a forecast or climate application and are the assumptions/paramateriztions appropriate e.g. if running at <10km in the atmosphere, you might want to consider a non-hydrostatic formulation. Another example from my more usual area of work (terrestrial modeling): the Community Land Model (CLM, used in the NCAR CESM) was built for a climate model, but is being used for NWP some European models (not ECMWF, which have their own model HTESSEL). If I was building a new forecast system, I would choose CLM over the current NOAH land model that is used within the GFS/NAM/WRF (NOAH was built for NWP).

2) If a model is being used in a forecast mode (as per NWP), how good are your initial conditions? What data do you assimilate and how do you assimilate it?

For (1), to my knowledge, CICE can be used appropriately at the scales applied by DMI (~10km). HYCOM/CICE is used by the Naval Research Lab at 1/12 degree resolution (~9km on a great circle), POP/CICE is used in the Regional Arctic System Model (also at 1/12 degree). MOM/CICE is used within the NASA seasonal prediction system.... and, CICE is used at ~1 degree resolution with POP in CESM. (HYCOM, MOM and POP are all ocean models). The relative skill/ability of CICE vs GIM (in PIOMAS) is an altogether different question.

For (2) you'd have to read the documentation regarding initialization. Also remember that while both DMI and PIOMAS assimilate concentration, they could do so in very different ways and the respective assimilation systems may or may not impact other state variables in the model (... or they may do it in the exact same way).

The main point is that it's not as black and white as "using a climate model for weather".
And as was noted, verification of a model is always useful information.

- Regarding my own "forecast system"; the poster on my web site is outdated... working on better docs (amongst a thousand other things).
« Last Edit: July 03, 2015, 08:48:30 AM by Blizzard_of_Oz »

Andreas T

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1746 on: July 03, 2015, 08:42:40 AM »
Quote
The band of clouds, you mean?

Look for Wrangel island, follow along the long axis of Wrangel one length of the island towards the east. The big water area is the Chukchi bite working its way north rapidly. Now you look all around the boundary of this water and you will see that the majority of the ice edge has a quite brilliantly white rim.
This is something I have noticed before in other places including antarctica. My impression is that it happens when winds are blowing towards the pack. What looks in the satellite images like swirls of froth when the wind is blowing away from the ice, forms this condensed rim when the wind blows towards it. I am guessing that it is smaller chunks of ice from the breakup of floes in the final stages of meltout, which are gathered together by wind and wave action. It would be nice to have a closer view of this.

Laurent

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1747 on: July 03, 2015, 11:07:09 AM »
An animation starting from 1 juin to 3rd of July.
Doesn't move much...I am sure July will show a bit more active.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1748 on: July 03, 2015, 11:27:41 AM »
Blizzard of Oz (Andrew),

Thanks for that very useful and comprehensive answer.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1749 on: July 03, 2015, 01:32:08 PM »
Wneh PIOMASS makes new data available? 4th is saturday, 5th is sunday - will we have to wait till 6th?
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