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Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #550 on: December 01, 2017, 03:13:18 AM »
Australia:  Tesla 100MW battery flexes muscles early this morning – delivers 70MWh of ‘stored wind power’, shows off fast switching
Quote
The unit also got to show off its ability to switch quickly from charging to pushing electrons onto the power grid. According to the below image from RenewEconomy, it looks like during a 4 hour period the battery was able to switch state at least 14 times.
...
In the old world, responsibility to deliver electricity in 30 minute settlement periods was acceptable because old technology – gas/coal – needed that long to react.

Tesla’s battery can react nearly instantly. The coal and gas people know they’ll lose out to batteries in the most expensive, most profitable settlement periods because they’re slow. This will become more obvious every single day now that the data will be so clear to see.
https://electrek.co/2017/11/30/tesla-100mw-battery-flexes-muscles-early-this-morning-delivers-70mw-of-stored-wind-energy-shows-off-fast-switching/
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Neven

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #551 on: December 01, 2017, 05:43:39 PM »
Any prediction about renewable energy that's even five years long is likely to be worthless.  Technology is changing very rapidly and prices coming down faster than almost everyone predicts.

Five years ago almost no one was predicting we'd see solar at $1/watt.

Five years ago the first Tesla S had not been sold.

Five years ago there were no Superchargers and no one was talking about creating a rapid charging system.

Five years ago no one was talking about a battery gigafactory.

Five years ago there was no company that could install a very large storage system in less than 100 days.

Five years ago there were no floating wind turbines.

Five years ago the average CF for new US wind farms was about half what it is now.

Things will probably happen in the next two years that will blow up Bloomberg's predictions.

Thanks, Bob and Sig, for all the positive news. It helps balance out how depressed I feel when thinking about politics.  ;D
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #552 on: December 01, 2017, 06:04:39 PM »
If you feel bad about politics think what it's like for us living in the middle of this mess. 

My assessment at this point is that we'll get damaged but we'll recover.  I suspect Republicans will lose control of the House next year which means that they won't be able to pass legislation unless both parties agree. 

It looks like we're getting close to the investigation of Russia's interference in the presidential election has gotten very close to the President.  Certainly members of his family are in deep trouble.  A plea deal has just been announced that can mean only that the person receiving the deal has testified to significant crimes committed by someone higher up and the only people higher up are the President, his sons and son-in-law.

If Trump is forced from office his replacement, Pence, is likely to be no better, even worse in some ways.  But Pence is unlikely to start a war which is a distinct possibility with Trump.

The US has another three bad years ahead.  But if Trump can be "disabled" then we should do minimal damage to other countries.  And we can recover, hopefully with a younger leadership that is less grounded in the US being a "superpower".  It's time for the US to be one among equals.

In the meantime Europe and countries on the other continents need to step up and take over. 

Fix Syria, the US is not going to be able to fix that mess now.  Fix Syria so that refugees can start going home and take the fuel away from your right wing extremists.

Move renewable energy forward in the world's countries that are lagging.  Do things like donate installed wind and solar projects places where fossil fuels are powering grids.  Install renewables and use the saved fuel money to install some more renewables.  Get those countries kickstarted.

Uncle Sam has gotten old and having trouble taking care of himself.  When Trump is gone and we have a sane administration once more we may need your help to get ourselves back in good working order.

etienne

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #553 on: December 02, 2017, 08:36:25 AM »
Nice website Jim. It's not linked to being able to purchase anything though, so you still need to run around and find quotes (which installers try hard not to give you).

New technologies are always complicated to get. When I installed a ventilation system in 1998 in my new house, the installer only agreed to work with hourly rates. I had to take the risk.

numerobis

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #554 on: December 11, 2017, 10:50:23 PM »
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/11/12-gw-battery-storage-uk-possible-2022/

Quote
The new report, Batteries, Exports, and Energy Security: The deployment of 12GW of battery storage by the end of 2021 is achievable and can support post-Brexit growth, analyzed policy changes in the UK and found that the Government and industry had both underestimated solar PV deployment, and that under a “high” scenario battery storage deployment could reach 12 GW (gigawatts) by the end of 2021, though the “medium deployment” scenario of 8 GW was more likely (the “low deployment” scenario is only 1.7 GW).

As of 2016 there's 0.06 GW installed, so the "low" scenario is a 30x increase in five years. Would be nice, to be sure.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #555 on: December 12, 2017, 10:09:11 AM »
As of 2016 there's 0.06 GW installed, so the "low" scenario is a 30x increase in five years. Would be nice, to be sure.

That would indeed be nice, but the Great British Government will need to make some major changes PDQ if that goal is to be achieved:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/12/beama-recommends-electrification-by-design/
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numerobis

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #556 on: December 12, 2017, 01:53:30 PM »
The low scenario is with current policy, so the government wouldn’t have to make any changes. Assuming the analysis holds (it’s a bit light on details).

Jim Hunt

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #557 on: December 12, 2017, 03:29:05 PM »
The low scenario is with current policy, so the government wouldn’t have to make any changes. Assuming the analysis holds (it’s a bit light on details).

It's extremely light on details. Which is where the devil lies!

For example: https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/news/beis_admits_subsidy_free_solar_evidence_base_consists_of_just_one_solar_far
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 04:07:43 PM by Jim Hunt »
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etienne

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #558 on: December 12, 2017, 10:23:48 PM »
In the project of an appartment house with batteries on which I work, I need around 100W to keep the batteries and electronic around it safe and available during the winter. Daily values are between 2 and 3 kWh per day for 15 kWh batteries. This means that a full load and unload per day can't have more than 80% efficiency. So this also means that you need more than 20% price difference between high and low electricity cost just to cover general costs.Transport and taxes being about 40% of the total electricity cost in Luxembourg, this means about 30% difference on the "energy part" of the costs.
So when we talk about "smart appliance", I would say that the first smart thing to do is that appliances (washmachine, dishwasher...) should use warm sanitary water each time that it is possible because water can be easely heated when power is available using a heat pump (or is heated with fossil fuels which don't bring much load on the electrical network). I know this is already the case in the US, but not on this side of the Atlantic.
The main problem we have now with "smart appliance" is that they are smart grid ready, but the communication module with the grid which is not smart yet is missing.
When you want to install some king of system to optimize your PV consumption right now, you have to install an extra counter at the entrance of your network and can work with sockets that open and cut electricity supply (the Smappee is one of many examples) or you have to develop some kind of interface connected to your applicances, controlled by a Rasberry or similar (Loxone, KNX...) that is also connected to an extra counter to control how much power you use.
The problem (and idea of smart grid) is that power usage should be optimized on a part of the distribution network, not just on individual buildings. Even if you have too much PV power, you shouldn't load your batteries if there isn't enough power in your neighborhoods.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #559 on: December 17, 2017, 05:15:21 PM »
Orhers have said they were bringing a car to market with solid state batteries (looking at you, Fisker), then changed to Li-ion.  But by 2030... who knows?!

Bosch is considering a major €20 billion investment in 200 GWh of battery cell production
Bosch says:
Quote
”... We assume that approximately 1,000 gigawatt hours of battery capacity will be needed by 2030. This means that we would have to develop around 200 gigawatt hours of capacity by 2030, at a cost of roughly €20 billion. Although this investment is not a problem for Bosch financially, it’s a decision that needs to be carefully considered from an entrepreneurial point of view. There are many risks involved.”

Electrek says:
Quote
If it goes through, it will have to be one of the biggest investments in battery cell production ever.

In comparison, Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada, is expected to become the largest battery factory in the world with a planned production capacity of 105 GWh (150 GWh of battery packs) in 2020.

Of course, 2030 is a decade later, but it’s still a significant increase over the current planned capacity. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/15/bosch-investment-battery-cells-production/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #560 on: December 19, 2017, 09:44:45 PM »
Australia:

Tesla big battery outsmarts lumbering coal units after Loy Yang [coal power plant] trips
Quote
The Tesla big battery is having a big impact on Australia’s electricity market, far beyond the South Australia grid where it was expected to time shift a small amount of wind energy and provide network services and emergency back-up in case of a major problem.

Last Thursday, one of the biggest coal units in Australia, Loy Yang A 3, tripped without warning at 1.59am, with the sudden loss of 560MW and causing a slump in frequency on the network.

What happened next has stunned electricity industry insiders and given food for thought over the near to medium term future of the grid, such was the rapid response of the Tesla big battery to an event that happened nearly 1,000km away.


Even before the Loy Yang A unit had finished tripping, the 100MW/129MWh had responded, injecting 7.3MW into the network to help arrest a slump in frequency that had fallen below 49.80Hertz.
 
Data from AEMO (and gathered above by Dylan McConnell from the Climate and Energy College) shows that the Tesla big battery responded four seconds ahead of the generator contracted at that time to provide FCAS (frequency control and ancillary services), the Gladstone coal generator in Queensland.

But in reality, the response from the Tesla big battery was even quicker than that – in milliseconds – but too fast for the AEMO data to record.

Importantly, by the time that the contracted Gladstone coal unit had gotten out of bed and put its socks on so it can inject more into the grid – it is paid to respond in six seconds – the fall in frequency had already been arrested and was being reversed.

Gladstone injected more than Tesla did back into the grid, and took the frequency back up to its normal levels of 50Hz, but by then Tesla had already put its gun back in its holster and had wandered into the bar for a glass of milk.

So why did the Tesla big battery respond when not contracted?

One reason is because it can, and so it did.

The other reason is less clear, but more intriguing. It is contracted to provide such grid services by the South Australia government.

The details of that contract are not released, but it wouldn’t surprise if that contract allowed, or even encouraged, such intervention – just to rub in the message about a cleaner, faster, smarter grid to the technology dinosaurs in the eastern states.

Marvellous stuff.


This is just the latest in a series of interventions since the Tesla big battery was officially opened in early December.

It has provided, at the request of AEMO, 70MW of back-up to help meet a critical peak in the day before its opening, entered into the FCAS market, as we highlight here, and discharged at full capacity.

Over the weekend was again illustrating its rapid fire charging and discharging. (See graph [below]). The rapid re-bidding is likely to change the market forever, particularly when the 5-minute settlement rule finally comes into effect in 2021.

It should be an interesting 2018.

Note: The Tesla big battery is known to the grid as the Hornsdale Power Reserve, as it is located near the Hornsdale wind farm in South Australia, also owned and operated by Neoen. Hence the acronym HPR in such tables.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-outsmarts-lumbering-coal-units-after-loy-yang-trips-70003/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #561 on: December 22, 2017, 01:28:42 AM »
Huge Vanadium flow battery in China will help maximize wind power capacity now going unused.

World’s largest battery: 200MW/800MWh vanadium flow battery – site work ongoing
Quote
The unit will be run by the main power company in coordination with other energy storage facilities located around the region. Nearby wind power facilities have been forced to curtail electricity production – these batteries hope to reduce that significantly.
https://electrek.co/2017/12/21/worlds-largest-battery-200mw-800mwh-vanadium-flow-battery-rongke-power/
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #562 on: December 23, 2017, 07:32:27 AM »
Huge Vanadium flow battery in China will help maximize wind power capacity now going unused.

World’s largest battery: 200MW/800MWh vanadium flow battery – site work ongoing

That's impressive.

Quote
Tesla’s 100MW/129MWh is currently the largest chemical battery in operation. There’s talk of a 150MW battery coming online in South Korea soon that will be larger. A 100MW/400MWh battery is expected to come online in Los Angeles by 2021. All of these batteries are lithium-ion.

I always thought that liquid salt or flow batteries would be better suited for grid storage.
But this is the first evidence that it would.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #563 on: December 27, 2017, 04:40:30 PM »
Homeowners in Vermont are getting residential battery systems through Tesla’s partnership with a local electric utility.

Tesla Powerwalls are now powering over 100 homes in Vermont
Quote
GMP CEO Mary Powell says that it is already having an impact on their use of peaker plant:

“Having those 100 signed up is like virtually disconnecting, like taking 500 homes completely off the grid. That’s the equivalent. So you can only imagine when we get up to 2,000 and when we go further.”
https://electrek.co/2017/12/26/tesla-powerwalls-powering-homes-vermont/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #564 on: December 28, 2017, 12:31:41 AM »
Batteries eat 0.3% of duck curve – tracked real time on California power grid
Quote
The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) – the group that manages 80% of the electricity used in California – has begun showing utility-scale batteries charging and discharging into the power grid via their website.
...
Yesterday, December 26th, the battery storage systems delivered roughly 30MW of power for 45 minutes from 6:15 PM  through 7:00 PM. The delivery phase started right around when the duck curve peaked. The hardware continued to mostly deliver small amounts of power through the rest of the evening. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/27/batteries-duck-curve-california-power-grid/

The linked article explains how to see the graph yourself.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #565 on: January 04, 2018, 05:16:32 PM »
“We’ll work harder.”

Tesla is chosen to build another big battery in Australia after the first one proves impressive
Quote
AFR reported today that Tesla was picked to build a 20 MW battery system to support their 204 MW wind farm at the Bulgana Green Power Hub in Western Victoria.  We are talking about a less powerful battery system than the one in South Australia, but it should still end up being one of Tesla’s biggest projects to date.

Franck Woitiez, Neoen’s managing director, commented:
“The performance of the South Australian battery is outstanding. The Bulgana battery is primarily going to provide energy to Nectar Farms and may support the grid in the future.”

The project is supported both by a Nectar Farms facility being built on location and the state government. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/01/04/tesla-powerpack-battery-australia/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #566 on: January 07, 2018, 06:37:23 PM »
Initial fallout from Tesla’s big battery in Australia:

"The biggest single source of insecurity to the power system is a trip of a major coal thermal generator unit simply because they are so large – [it's] not the wind or the sun, or people switching on their airconditioner."

'All happening very quickly': Tesla battery sends a jolt through energy markets
Quote
"It is difficult to determine price trends at this early stage, however the battery has been active in the Raise and Lower Regulation Frequency Control and Ancillary Services [R-FCAS] markets since commissioning," a SA government spokesman tells Fairfax.

"The cost of Raise and Lower R-FCAS in SA in December 2016 was $502,320, compared with just $39,661 in December 2017, following the operation of the battery," he said.

"In recent times FCAS services have cost South Australians about $50 million each year," he says. "The battery is expected to significantly reduce the cost."

According to Mr McConnell, the battery dispatched about 2.5 gigawatt-hours of electricity while consuming about 3 gigawatt-hours, representing a round-trip efficiency of about 80 per cent.

"The performance to date has been very impressive. Its ramp-up from zero output to maximum in seconds (or less) is something that we haven't seen in the electricity market before," Mr McConnell said, noting the current fleet of "fast start" units take five to 10 minutes to synchronise to the grid and start providing power.

Cases of the Tesla battery responding without being "enabled" could also be part of its testing, and there may also be arrangements with the SA government separate from the FCAS market, he said.
...
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/all-happening-very-quickly-tesla-battery-sends-a-jolt-through-energy-markets-20180103-h0cxr7.html
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TerryM

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #567 on: January 07, 2018, 07:33:25 PM »
Initial fallout from Tesla’s big battery in Australia:

"The biggest single source of insecurity to the power system is a trip of a major coal thermal generator unit simply because they are so large – [it's] not the wind or the sun, or people switching on their airconditioner."



Could Tesla's battery then be considered as a boost to Australia's coal generating plants, propping them up and lengthening the time before wind and solar take over?
Terry

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #568 on: January 07, 2018, 08:20:02 PM »
Initial fallout from Tesla’s big battery in Australia:

"The biggest single source of insecurity to the power system is a trip of a major coal thermal generator unit simply because they are so large – [it's] not the wind or the sun, or people switching on their airconditioner."



Could Tesla's battery then be considered as a boost to Australia's coal generating plants, propping them up and lengthening the time before wind and solar take over?
Terry
No. It appears as if the effect has been to lower the profit available to the price gouging incombents. That won't prop them up at all. Remember the black outs in the past caused by failures of the incombents was blamed on the renewables.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #569 on: January 10, 2018, 08:40:07 PM »
South Australia, Victoria, and now Queensland. Big battery installations on a roll in Australia!

Tesla and Neoen Deal Would Outdo Record-Breaking Battery Down Under
Quote
The developers of the world’s biggest lithium-ion battery project may surpass their own record as French renewable-energy developer Neoen SAS looks into building another supersized unit in Australia with Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc.

A battery with capacity surpassing the old project’s 100 megawatts may be developed at Neoen’s Kaban Green Power Hub, 80 kilometers (50 miles) southwest of Cairns in Queensland state, according to Garth Heron, Neoen’s head of wind development for Australia. Tesla may provide the battery given the two companies have already collaborated on two other renewable projects in Australia, he said.
...
Even if the Queensland battery surpasses 100 megawatts next year, it might still have competition for the title of world’s biggest. Hyundai Electric & Energy Systems Co. is building a 150-megawatt lithium-ion unit, 50 percent larger than Musk’s, that the company says will go live in a few months in Ulsan near the southeast coast of South Korea.

With battery prices tumbling by almost half since 2014, large-scale projects are popping up around the world. Developers announced lithium-ion battery projects with total capacity of 1,650 megawatts per hour in 2017, four times the amount for all of 2016, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

The South Australian battery has already proved its worth responding to outages from coal-fired generators in Australia’s national electricity market four times in December, by providing back-up power in a fraction of a second, according to Neoen.

“The response from the battery is almost instant in terms of its response to faults within the network,” Heron said. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/tesla-neoen-deal-would-outdo-record-breaking-battery-down-under
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #570 on: January 10, 2018, 08:56:32 PM »
That Bloomberg graph is wrong.  We know from at least two sources that EV batteries were under $180/kWh in 2016.  Tesla was paying Panasonic less than $180 for a complete pack, not just cells in 2016.  GM contracted cells at $145/kWh from LG Chem in 2016.
--

There's a very interesting (IMHO) article up by Randy Carlson who thinks it very likely we're about to see a major decrease in battery prices.  Here's his summary -

Quote
Major carmakers have made large-scale commitments to long-range battery-electric vehicles - moves requiring hugely increased battery production.

Experts say that high energy, cobalt containing batteries for these cars cannot be made in needed quantity because sufficient cobalt will not be available.

A new process for lithium-ion battery cathode material containing zero cobalt has demonstrated high density, high power, and good cycle life.

This new process, patented by a recent startup, avoids cobalt, lowers other material costs, and has advanced to pilot battery production by industry players.

With cost and cobalt supply issues solved, expect big changes to cars, trucks, grid storage, supply chain.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134853-battery-barrier-busted?uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=false

I've been very impressed with previous articles Randy has published.  He did a great job describing what the Tesla 3 would be like even before the project was named '3'.  I think in the early days it was talked about as the 'blue' car.

He did a great job predicting the Tesla semi.  Except for the price which is explained by Tesla possibly having a new, much cheaper battery ready for the market.

He's made some other insightful work on things like ideal EV ranges.

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #571 on: January 10, 2018, 09:12:41 PM »
* Tesla Model 3 code name was: BlueStar.
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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #572 on: January 10, 2018, 11:07:53 PM »
I saw in passing a proposal to buy a shuttered tungsten mine that has nearby deposits of battery-relevant materials, precisely because of the battery market. The boring good-ol-boys network that is the mining industry is starting to get excited about batteries.

numerobis

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #573 on: January 12, 2018, 05:35:48 PM »
A friend just started working at this new company, which is relevant:
http://www.northvolt.com/career
Quote
Northvolt is building the largest lithium-ion battery factory in Europe. We are now staffing our international project office in Stockholm and preparing upcoming recruitments for the establishment of the factory.

Basically a gigafactory competitor.

They say they are interested in selling to customers who want 250 MWh/year or more, in other words they aren't developing their own consumer products but just focusing on making batteries.

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #574 on: January 12, 2018, 07:11:36 PM »
Fox Business:
Battery technology allows 700-mile range on one-minute charge: Henrik Fisker

Jan. 09, 2018 - 2:52 - Fisker CEO Henrik Fisker on the company's electric car battery technology.

The video clip claimed "500" (not "700") miles on a one-minute charge in the not-too-distant future.  Currently, something like 150 miles on a nine-minute charge is available for a $129,000 (sticker price) car.
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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #575 on: January 12, 2018, 07:15:36 PM »
A friend just started working at this new company, which is relevant:
http://www.northvolt.com/career
Quote
Northvolt is building the largest lithium-ion battery factory in Europe. We are now staffing our international project office in Stockholm and preparing upcoming recruitments for the establishment of the factory.

Basically a gigafactory competitor.

They say they are interested in selling to customers who want 250 MWh/year or more, in other words they aren't developing their own consumer products but just focusing on making batteries.
Interesting! I wonder what kind of competitive edge that factory might have. I know the CEO and founder was head of logistics at Tesla, until he decided to start up this factory. But I don't think they have any IP (intellectual property/patents), so wonder how they're thinking about that. Maybe they will license the IP from Nano One, the start-up Bob mentioned in a recent post? Hope to hear more about that, maybe your friend, numerobis, learnt something?

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #576 on: January 12, 2018, 08:53:21 PM »
I suspect the competitive advantage is having a few billion dollars in their pockets to invest into the venture, and having relevant contacts.

Now that the business opportunity has been demonstrated by Tesla, it's going to be a lot easier to get funding to build batteries. I expect to see quite a few battery factories pop up in the next decade, much like we've seen quite a few huge solar panel factories pop up recently (and how we saw a lot of huge chip fabs pop up pretty quickly when computers became ubiquitous).

Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #577 on: January 12, 2018, 09:26:19 PM »
Fox Business:
Battery technology allows 700-mile range on one-minute charge: Henrik Fisker

Jan. 09, 2018 - 2:52 - Fisker CEO Henrik Fisker on the company's electric car battery technology.

The video clip claimed "500" (not "700") miles on a one-minute charge in the not-too-distant future.  Currently, something like 150 miles on a nine-minute charge is available for a $129,000 (sticker price) car.

Maybe 700 miles is the NEDC range?  ;) ;D

Here’s more on the claimed solid state battery tech.  Don’t hold your breath waiting for it, though.

https://electrek.co/2017/11/14/fisker-solid-state-battery-breakthrough-electric-cars/
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gerontocrat

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #578 on: January 13, 2018, 02:58:19 PM »
Whoops ?     COBALT

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-cobalt-batteries/

Quote
When BMW AG revealed it was designing electric versions of its X3 SUV and Mini, the going rate for 21 kilograms of cobalt—the amount of the metal needed to power typical car batteries—was under $600.

Only 16 months later, the price tag is approaching $1,700 and climbing by the day.

For carmakers vying to fill their fleets with electric vehicles, the spike has been a rude awakening as to how much their success is riding on the scarce silvery-blue mineral found predominantly in one of the world’s most corrupt and underdeveloped countries.

Complicating the process is the fact that the cobalt trail inevitably leads to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where corruption is entrenched in everyday business practices. The U.S. last month slapped sanctions on Glencore’s long-time partner in Congo, Israeli billionaire Dan Gertler, saying he used his close ties to Congolese President Joseph Kabila to secure mining deals.

There’s also another ethical obstacle to negotiate. The African nation produces more than 60 percent of the world’s cobalt, a fifth of which is drawn out by artisanal miners who work with their hands — some of whom are children. The country is also planning to double its tax on the metal.



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numerobis

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #579 on: January 13, 2018, 03:38:41 PM »
The Bloomberg article is written to be provocative — particularly the headline. At the end it mentions that the battery industry is already switching to use far less cobalt in the batteries, and the mining industry is already opening up new production. And of course now there’s a bigger market for cobalt, miners will care more to find new supplies.

ghoti

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #580 on: January 13, 2018, 03:41:56 PM »
Cobalt can be mined in many other places. When the market for it was small cobalt mines in places like Ontario closed when Congo became a low price source. If the price rises these other mines will become viable.

(There is even a town named Cobalt, Ontario)

A-Team

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #581 on: January 13, 2018, 04:13:48 PM »
Quote
Cobalt can be mined in many other places.  even a town Cobalt, Ontario
Byproduct of nickel mining. Every day a new scam and faux facts to fleece investors. There is nothing sillier than 'peak cobalt' unless it be 'peak lithium' or 'peak silicon' or 'peak oil' or 'solar roadways' or 'boring tunnel systems' or 'methane collecting tarps' covering the ESAS seabed. When 'peak peaks' hits, good time to dump hoarded stockpiles.

The magical hand of the marketplace: when the price of something goes up, so does the supply:

Quote
Price elasticity of supply is a measure used in economics to show the responsiveness, or elasticity, of the quantity supplied of a good or service to a change in its price.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2018, 06:19:05 PM by A-Team »

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #582 on: January 13, 2018, 05:17:34 PM »
We may already have a solution for a strained cobalt supply - EV batteries that use no cobalt.

Quote
A new process for lithium-ion battery cathode material containing zero cobalt has demonstrated high density, high power, and good cycle life.

This new process, patented by a recent startup, avoids cobalt, lowers other material costs, and has advanced to pilot battery production by industry players.

With cost and cobalt supply issues solved, expect big changes to cars, trucks, grid storage, supply chain.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134853-battery-barrier-busted?uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=false

Nothing proven yet by real world application but Randy does a pretty good job of not getting too far out over his skis.

gerontocrat

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #583 on: January 13, 2018, 05:19:46 PM »
Quote
Cobalt can be mined in many other places.  even a town Cobalt, Ontario
Byproduct of nickel mining. Every day a new scam and faux facts to fleece investors. There is nothing sillier than 'peak cobalt' unless it be 'peak lithium' or 'peak silicon' or 'peak oil'. When 'peak peaks' hits, good time to dump hoarded stockpiles.
Five points to make :-

- Bloomberg promotes the Green Agenda. I doubt they would publish simply to sell snake-oil,
- The data is the data. This is where we are now. We will see if alternative supplies become available and / or the technology and materials used in battery production change over time.
- The Chinese would not be working so hard to secure supplies unless they thought it was in their national interest.
- Nickel mining often has very unpleasant side effects,
- I am a great supporter of EVs. But that should not blind one to the realities of where all the materials that are required to make it happen are sourced.

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A-Team

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #584 on: January 13, 2018, 05:49:34 PM »
It's air pollution from abusive smelting, not so much the mining.

Actually a great many stories in newspapers are plants. Papers today are looking for free content. Someone is kiting a stock option, sends out a press release. Front-running the gullible.

Until someone repeals the laws of supply and demand elasticities, there will never be a cobalt shortage. It will never contribute meaningfully to the price of an auto. If it did, it would be replaced, just like png replaced gif when the patent trolls came around to collect royalties.

Remember the phony chromium shortage? The Ruskies were buying up the world's supplies (in the Congo, circa 1965). We would no longer be able to plate shiny chrome on our steel car bumpers leading to societal collapse.

Remember the phony silicon shortage? It had to come from this special beach in Coos Bay, Oregon. We're gonna run out of sand.

Remember the phony lithium shortage? The millions of hectares of open-air playas and millions of cubic km of salt beds in the western US vanished overnight. Along with all the salt in the sea.

Remember the phony rare earth element shortage? We're gonna have to go back to rotary dial phones unless the wilderness protection act is repealed.

Remember those viseroij tulips? Now there was a commodity that actually couldn't keep up with demand (because it was a fungus rather than a genetic variant):

Quote
Tulip mania (Dutch: tulpenmanie) was a period in the Dutch Golden Age during which contract prices for some bulbs of the recently introduced and fashionable tulip reached extraordinarily high levels and then dramatically collapsed in February 1637.

It is generally considered the first recorded speculative bubble... In many ways, the tulip mania was more of a hitherto unknown socio-economic phenomenon than a significant economic crisis. And historically, it had no critical influence on the prosperity of the Dutch Republic, the world's leading economic and financial power in the 17th century. wiki
« Last Edit: January 13, 2018, 06:17:27 PM by A-Team »

Bob Wallace

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #585 on: January 13, 2018, 06:23:14 PM »



Some more on cobalt free batteries. 

Quote
Vancouver, B.C., January 11, 2018: Dr. Stephen Campbell, Principal Scientist at Nano One, today announced that Nano One has successfully completed an 18 month project developing cobalt free High Voltage Spinel (HVS) cathode material for lithium ion batteries, with the support of the National Research Council of Canada Industrial Research Assistance Program (NRC IRAP). HVS is suited to fast charging and high power applications and is a candidate cathode material in next generation solid state lithium ion batteries for automotive, consumer electronics and energy storage applications.

“We have met our objectives and made a number of significant breakthroughs” said Dr. Elahe Talaie, Senior Scientist and HVS team lead with Nano One. “Battery performance is excellent when our HVS is tested with lithium, graphite and lithium titanium oxide anodes (LTO). As previously communicated, our innovative process can control particle size and output voltage; and it stabilizes HVS for high temperature applications. All of these advances are critical to battery manufacturers. The project has led to two patent applications and HVS production is now ready for demonstration at pilot scale.”

https://nanoone.ca/nano-one-successfully-completes-high-voltage-spinel-project/

Having been disappointed several times by promising batteries that did not pan out I'm not getting excited by this.  Holding it at the 'very interesting' level for now.

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #586 on: January 13, 2018, 07:28:30 PM »
I am a great supporter of EVs. But that should not blind one to the realities of where all the materials that are required to make it happen are sourced.

Rare earths? There are a variety of types of EV motors. Some have permanent magnets, others don't. Contrast Tesla 3 with S for example.

http://www.peakresources.com.au/news/tesla-model-3-why-permanent-magnet-motor-instead-of-induction-motor/

Battery technology improves as time goes by. It shouldn't surprise you if motor technology does too. How about this one for example?

https://ricardo.com/news-and-media/press-releases/ricardo-develops-next-generation-electric-vehicle



From the Union of Concerned Scientists:

https://blog.ucsusa.org/josh-goldman/electric-vehicles-batteries-cobalt-and-rare-earth-metals

Quote
One of the last arguments available to the EV-hater club, which is largely comprised of thinly veiled oil-industry front groups funded by the Koch brothers, focuses on the impacts from the materials used to make an EV’s battery pack.

Specifically, the use of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and other metals that are part of an EV lithium-ion battery pack has raised red flags about the poor human rights and worker protection records in the countries where these materials are mined.

A lot of these warnings have been incorrectly categorized under “EVs and rare earth metals.” Though neither lithium nor cobalt are rare earth metals, and rare earth metals aren’t nearly as rare as precious metals like gold, platinum, and palladium, there are important issues surrounding the production of lithium-ion batteries that must be acknowledged and addressed.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2018, 07:44:10 PM by Jim Hunt »
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ghoti

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #587 on: January 13, 2018, 10:37:49 PM »
But of course don't hear much about scarcity of platinum required for both catalytic converters for ICE cars and hydrogen fuel cells...

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #588 on: January 14, 2018, 01:43:16 PM »
To me it seems that cobalt-free batteries are the key. I don't see massive investment to increasing cobalt production because the peak in cobalt demand is likely to be short-lived due to cobalt-free batteries. Slower increase in cobalt production and battery chemistries with less cobalt (NMC 811) can keep up the growth for a while, but in a few years we might see a temporary slow down until/unless competitive cobalt-free batteries reach mass production.

Here's a recent scientific article on the issue:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2017.08.019

There's some useful information but their future projections are rather vague and speculative. Anyway, here's one of their charts:



Quote
Figure 4. Cobalt Use in LIBs Including Historic Supply Broken Down by Country and Projected Supply Overlaid with Current and Projected Demand

Stars show the demand in tonnes in 2016 and the L and H scenarios in 2025. Dashed lines show supply projections based on published capacities and capacity expansions. Shaded supply shows linear growth in supply.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #589 on: January 14, 2018, 02:51:07 PM »
Here’s an article from last October the Union of Concerned Scientists:
https://blog.ucsusa.org/josh-goldman/electric-vehicles-batteries-cobalt-and-rare-earth-metals

Tesla plans to make battery recycling an important part of its Gigafactory operations in future years.  As Elon Musk said, why go to the expense of mining/processing/transporting raw materials, when you have the finished product readily available to you?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #590 on: January 14, 2018, 03:44:40 PM »
Here’s an article from last October the Union of Concerned Scientists:

Errrm, that's the same one I linked to a few posts upthread.

Did you read my comment?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #591 on: January 14, 2018, 08:19:49 PM »
Here’s an article from last October the Union of Concerned Scientists:

Errrm, that's the same one I linked to a few posts upthread.

Did you read my comment?

People occasionally re-post a link I had already posted.  I don’t make a fuss.  Most other folks don’t, either.
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Neven

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #592 on: January 14, 2018, 10:10:32 PM »
Has anyone seen this article from last October by the Union of Concerned Scientists?

 ;)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #593 on: January 15, 2018, 04:00:48 AM »
Has anyone seen this article from last October by the Union of Concerned Scientists?

 ;)

tl;dr   ;D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #594 on: January 15, 2018, 04:06:22 AM »
”The battery, instantly knowing it had space and that it wanted to make some money, started to absorb power and hold onto it.”

Tesla’s massive battery in Australia was paid up to $1000/MWh to charge itself
Quote
Yesterday, Saturday 13th, in South Australia the Tesla battery at Hornsdale Power Reserve was paid AU$1,000/MWh (USD$790/kWh) to absorb excess electricity from the power grid.

The battery has become famous for coming online in under 100 days after an Elon Musk Twitter bet and later reacting to a crashed coal plants in milliseconds.

Starting around 12 PM, and continuing until around 4 PM, the battery was paid during at least five separate windows.

The Tesla built battery was in ‘Load’ (charging) mode, while electricity was negatively priced, for at least 194 minutes. During that period the battery was accepting power at rates between 15-26MW, for varying time periods.

Roughly, during the four-hour period, the battery system absorbed greater than 66MWh of energy, which would be equal to at least AU$66,339 in revenue – and potentially up to $76,153.

Events of this nature occur when there is more electricity being produced than the power grid can absorb. Powerplants will sometimes disconnect themselves from the power grid when these things occur, transformers can blow, etc – this is what similar to what happened when the Tesla battery raced to action a few weeks back. The power grid managers try their best via predictive tools to manage energy usage with generation, but complexity always creeps in. ...
Quote
Electrek’s Take

To the victor comes the spoils. The battle was of speed – who can react to an imbalanced grid the fastest and in the most economical way. Often times, corporations and electricity users are asked to run hardware and absorb this juice (as happened in Germany a couple of weeks ago). But those folks don’t have a chance at keeping up with this battery. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/01/14/teslas-massive-battery-in-australia-was-paid-up-to-1000-mwh-to-charge-itself/
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #595 on: January 15, 2018, 11:10:26 AM »
Has anyone seen this article from last October by the Union of Concerned Scientists?

Numerous times!

Unfortunately I just can't seem to resist the temptation to quote from it whenever anybody says something that sounds like "One of the last arguments available to the.... thinly veiled oil-industry front groups funded by the Koch brothers"
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #596 on: January 17, 2018, 06:15:00 AM »
A friend just started working at this new company

Basically a gigafactory competitor.

In slightly strange English:

LG to augment capacities of its U.S. (and Polish) battery plant(s)

https://www.electrive.com/2018/01/06/lg-augment-capacities-u-s-battery-plant/

Quote
The South Korean battery specialist is said to put additional 9.4m dollars into its battery factory in Holland, Michigan, to complete the installation of a fifth production line by August 2018.

This step is due to raising EV demand. In Holland, LG Chem produces batteries for the Chevrolet Bolt, among others. Thanks to the fifth production line, production capacity shall climb to 3 GWh annually.

In September 2017, LG Chem already announced to invest further 387m dollars in its Polish factory in Wroclaw.

According to Reuters in October 2017:

Quote
LG Chem plans to spend 5.9 billion zlotys ($1.63 billion) on the factory near the southwestern city of Wroclaw, according to Polish state industry agency ARP.

Holland is in the USA. Wroclaw is in Europe!
« Last Edit: January 17, 2018, 06:20:06 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #597 on: January 18, 2018, 05:05:56 PM »
China's Top Nickel Producer Joins BHP in Preparing for EV Boom
Quote
China’s top nickel supplier aims to boost output of a material used in car batteries by 40 percent this year, joining the ranks of global producers ramping up operations to meet demand from electric vehicles.

Jinchuan Group Co. expects to raise production of nickel sulphate to 70,000 metric tons from 50,000 tons in 2017, Simon Bao, vice general manager of its marketing unit, said in an interview in Shanghai. The country is already the world’s largest automotive market and sales of new-energy vehicles may hit 1 million in 2018 after topping 700,000 last year, according to manufacturers.

“While physical demand hasn’t picked up too significantly yet, it may surge in about two years,” Bao said Tuesday. The company is able to raise sulphate production without any technical barriers, he said, adding that nickel cathode output will be kept at 135,000 tons this year. Cathode is used in stainless steel.
...
The world’s biggest miners are stepping up efforts to meet demand for battery materials. BHP Billiton Ltd. has begun work to build on a nickel sulphate plant in Western Australia and is considering further expansions. Rio Tinto Group is developing a lithium project in Serbia, while Glencore Plc plans to double production of cobalt in the next two years.

The growing battery market complements nickel’s main use in stainless steel. Demand in passenger electric vehicles will rise to 328,000 tons in 2030 from 5,000 tons in 2015, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-01-17/china-s-top-nickel-producer-joins-bhp-in-preparing-for-ev-boom
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Yuha

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #598 on: January 18, 2018, 07:46:02 PM »
Lockheed Martin flow battery launching this year.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/lockheed-martin-eyes-solar-partners-for-new-flow-battery

Quote
“We acquired [MIT spin-out] Sun Catalytix in 2014 and we have been investing in that product for four years now. We have prototypes up and running at our Massachusetts facility and we are targeting a commercial launch of the product in late 2018,” Battaglini said on the sidelines of the World Future Energy Summit (WFES) in Abu Dhabi.

Battaglini claimed its flow systems will be price competitive “right out of the gate” and expects that cost to continue to fall.

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #599 on: January 19, 2018, 08:50:33 PM »
Chile + lithium

Tesla CEO Elon Musk arrives in Chile sparking lithium rumors again
https://electrek.co/2017/12/29/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-chile-sparking-lithium-rumors/

Why Most Lithium Stocks Got Crushed on Thursday, With Albemarle Plunging 7.1%
SQM got the green light from Chile's economic development agency to hike its annual lithium production, resulting in lithium pricing pressure concerns.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/01/19/why-most-lithium-stocks-got-crushed-on-thursday-wi.aspx

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