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What will the NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average be?

Between 5.0 and 5.5 million km^2
1 (1.3%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
5 (6.6%)
Between 4.5 and 5.0 million km^2
21 (27.6%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
19 (25%)
Between 4.0 and 4.5 million km^2
6 (7.9%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
12 (15.8%)
Between 3.5 and 4.0 million km^2
4 (5.3%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
7 (9.2%)
Between 3.0 and 3.5 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.5 and 3.0 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.0 and 2.5 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 1.75 and 2.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 1.5 and 2.0 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 1.25 and 1.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 1.0 and 1.5 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 0.75 and 1.25 million km^2
1 (1.3%)
Between 0.5 and 1.0 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 0.25 and 0.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 0.0 and 0.5 million km^2
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 76

Voting closed: August 13, 2018, 08:24:58 AM

Author Topic: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll  (Read 1329 times)

DavidR

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NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« on: July 29, 2018, 08:24:58 AM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by ADS, previously by IJIS). Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting.

These are the September averages for the last 13 years (in millions km2,):

    2005: 5.50
    2006: 5.86
    2007: 4.27
    2008: 4.69
    2009: 5.26
    2010: 4.87
    2011: 4.56
    2012: 3.57
    2013: 5.21
    2014: 5.22
    2015: 4.62
    2016: 4.51
    2017: 4.80

75  voters voted in the July  poll with  an average prediction of 4.387 M km^2. This is 300K above the JAXA daily  minimum in line with  the average differences between the two  figures since 2005

I  have attached a graph showing the difference between the daily minimum and September average for  the past thirty years.  It should be noted that NSIDC does not necessarily use a standard 'average' of daily values when calculating their reported average. 
« Last Edit: July 29, 2018, 09:11:48 AM by DavidR »
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Paddy

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2018, 10:45:32 AM »
Going for "4.5 to 5.0" for now, but definitely planning to review it in 12 days or so.

Stephan

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2018, 11:07:10 AM »
Have chosen the bin 4.5 to 5.0 mio as in previous polls.

icefisher

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2018, 01:18:04 AM »
4.64 +/- .15.  A major typhoon entering from the Pacific side could lower my expectations but the odds on that happening are less than 10%.  We need many, many buoys measuring volume.

jdallen

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2018, 01:22:51 AM »
Based on what we're seeing play out on the Pacific side I've dropped a bucket from 4.25-4.75 down to 4.0-4.5

I wouldn't be surprised if I end up coming in high.
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EgalSust

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2018, 02:54:32 PM »
Going for 4.75-5.25, same as July, for now. Might change later.


RikW

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2018, 03:09:36 PM »
I'm going for a top-3 finish, thus 4.0-4.5

But I think throwing a dice with options has a better chance at giving a good prediction than any argumentation, this season is feeling weirder every week...

magnamentis

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2018, 07:08:52 PM »
I'm going for a top-3 finish, thus 4.0-4.5

But I think throwing a dice with options has a better chance at giving a good prediction than any argumentation, this season is feeling weirder every week...

we can do both, we can try to reason and throw all the various known facts and believes into the pot to get a best possible picture as long as we don't claim to have borrowed the only truth, means as long as we know that we don't KNOW;)

discussions based on good motives ( = to learn) are best practice and very interesting as well.

no dogma and no exageration, no buzzwords and no disrespect and all is well

i got the feeling that the many unexpected developments  over the last 3 years have improved
the quality of discourse in this forum a lot (looking at myself here as well) LOL
http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

Sterks

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2018, 09:03:41 AM »
Keeping it at 4.5 - 5.0 M km2, tho I still see it going both over and below this range.
The Pacific side, all that broken area, could easily go with a strong storm, putting the season in the lowest three. Or a couple of not so strong storms. But high pressure system alone is not gonna make it especially the ESS.
The high compactness suggests that, as much as August can come warm, the melt could soon stall and stay slow until Sep minimum. Unles a storm...

uniquorn

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2018, 02:35:37 PM »
3.75-4.25, warm winds and waves

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2018, 07:39:02 PM »
3.75ish. Continue of long term trend. The 50% concentration areas will go in the next 3 weeks, and the "solid" edge will slowly but surely retreat everywhere. Very stormy, wavy weather could make it much worse ( maybe sub 3.0) because the solid pack is not actually very solid.
big time oops

Tetra

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2018, 12:51:12 PM »
4.5-5.0

Wow. Wasn't aware 2016 was so high on this. I think I misread the Nsidc vs jaxa comparison in July. Nsidc should be higher than jaxa.

Same logic as in the jaxa thread.

Third vs fourth place for 2018.

Tom

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2018, 02:11:11 PM »
Changed from 4.5-5.0 to 4.25-4.75

Going purely on projections based on averages I think about 4.6ish, but have changed bin as I think recent weather means the chances of undershooting are higher than overshooting.

Paddy

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2018, 07:27:49 PM »
I don't really see the logic of the >50% of voters here who aren't backing either 4.25 -> 4.75 or 4.5 -> 5.0. This year is currently solidly within the same range as previous years that finished within this general area and nowhere near any year that finished below 4.25 or above 5.0.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2018, 03:35:46 PM »
I take are now as being a good indicator of what extent in September will be.

Looking at Wipneus area graphs, I reckon the current position looks a bit lower, but not out of range of 2013 and 2014, and a bit higher, but not out of range of 2015 and 2017, and no longer in a position to catch 2012 or 2016.

2013 and 2014 had September extents around the the top end of the 4.75-5.25 bin, and 2015 and 2017 around the bottom end, so I think thats the obvious bin to pick based on looking at the current state of the Home Brew area.

Slater does much the same thing in a rather more rigorous fashion, but has been all over the place during the last month, starting with a much more pessimistic outlook for ice survival than anomaly persistence and with a rather more optimistic one now (5.36 on Sept 28th).

I don't think 5.36 at the end of the month is quite high enough to go to the 5-5.5 bin for the average, but I have changed my initial vote of 4.5-5 that I made when this poll first came out  to 4.75-5.25 

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2018, 02:54:56 PM »
4.25-4.75M km2 bin.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

slow wing

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2018, 01:16:24 AM »
[4.25,4.75]. Just went up 0.25 from my daily minimum prediction, which I explained in more detail.

gerontocrat

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2018, 12:32:55 PM »
4.25 to 4.75 million km2.
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Neven

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Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2018, 01:12:15 PM »
4.5-5, as in June and July.
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