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oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1350 on: August 11, 2018, 02:05:26 PM »
NSIDC area data certainly hints at slowing extent losses. Not sure whether to believe this signal though, as I think AMSR2 area is lower, relatively speaking.

Sterks

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1351 on: August 11, 2018, 03:57:33 PM »
NSIDC area data certainly hints at slowing extent losses. Not sure whether to believe this signal though, as I think AMSR2 area is lower, relatively speaking.
Oren, the weather predictions invite to think that compactness is definitely not gonna follow 2014, a lot of vulnerable areas in the Pacific side will fall under the weather. Yes moderate only, stormy weather but bad enough for already bleeding ice. Don't you think?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1352 on: August 11, 2018, 05:45:40 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 August (5 day trailing average) =   4,210,520 km2
This is now 255 k above the 2010-2017 average total area for this date


Total Area loss 55 K ,

Central Seas loss         51 k,
Peripheral Seas loss       1 k, all seas at or near zero area.
Other Seas loss             3 k.

Analysis of individual seas.
Pacific Side
- The Bering Sea - finished,
- Chukchi Sea loss 4 k, area 111k - a bit below the 2010's average.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea loss 2 k, area 34 k - about 2.5% of 1980's average maximum,
- Greenland Sea gain 0 k, loss stalled or in reverse,
- Barents Sea - finished,
- The Kara Sea area loss 0 k, area is now at 28 k, well under 5% of 1980's average maximum.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 9 k -  area 96k, less than 15% of maximum.

CAB
- Beaufort Sea loss 10 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago loss 7 k,
- East Siberian Sea loss 0 k .
- The Central Arctic Sea loss 17 k,

Other seas

- St Lawrence -finished,
- Hudson Bay area loss 4 k, Area now 45 k, less than 5% of 1980's average maximum- almost done,
- The Okhotsk Sea - finished.

On average, this is when daily area loss declines sharply  The area loss of 55 k is above this day's 2010's average by a modest 7 k. Extent loss (also 5-day trailing average)) was 70k.

Qu1.  It is all about the 4 central seas now. On the melting season thread there is evidence of strong ice loss along the Atlantic front and predictions of weather favourable for further ice loss. Will above average area losses return strongly in the last 30 days or so of the season ? Not seen for several days so far, the exception being the Laptev (graph attached).

Qu2. How low will Greenland Sea Ice Area go ? If not for the complete oddity that was 2002, the Greenland sea would have been at a record low for most of the year. But in the last 6 days losses have stopped and even seen small gains. An oddity given the ice retreat up and around that corner of Greenland.
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Stephan

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1353 on: August 11, 2018, 08:45:26 PM »

And it didn't follow 2014, but still relatively high:

But 2018 is in some ways - again - comparable to 2015.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1354 on: August 12, 2018, 05:49:41 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

August 11th, 2018: 5,617,694 km2, a drop of -49,114 km2.
2018 is the fifth lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

etienne

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1355 on: August 12, 2018, 07:49:03 AM »
Didn't find the max extent evolution graph, so I decide to check and publish. Extent maximum values don't go down as fast as minimum values, but Extent doesn't provide an idea of the quality of the ice.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1356 on: August 12, 2018, 12:53:59 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 5,617,694 km2(August 11, 2018)

Just to add to Juan's post
- Extent loss of 49 k is below the average for this date by about 20k,
- Extent is now 52 k km2  (0.9 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date,
- and 161 k (2.9%) above 2017 (which is about to start a series of below average extent losses) ,
- Extent loss to date is now 317 km2 (3.7 %) below the 2008-2017 average, with 86.2 % of the average melting season done.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is  4.25 million km2, (excluding 2012 from the average gives 4.28 million km2 - a reducing and insignificant difference). Range of results from last ten years remaining melt is 3.91 to 4.63 million km2 - also a narrowing range. For a minimum at 2nd lowest remaining melt needs to be about 13% above average. For a new record low remaining melt would need to be 2.44 million km2 as opposed to the average remaining melt of 1.37 million km2, i.e 1.07 million (78 %) above the average. Not feasible.

Of interest (?) is that in 2012 melt from this point was just 0.34 million (25%) above the average remaining melt.

That 2017 feeling wanes and waxes- extent losses are only slowly (or not at all) catching up on the slow melt to date and NSIDC Area losses have slowed significantly. There is, on average, just 13.8% (32 days) of further extent loss to go. Could the melting season last a bit longer than that - Yes.  On the other hand, could extent loss sharply reduce? Yes.

As a result of these persistent higher than average extent loss, a September minimum in the range of 4.00 to 4.50 million km2 seems probable, and perhaps even another bin lower (3.75 to 4.25) looks possible. But that is still possibly 0.2 million km2 above 2nd place and about 0.8 million km2 above the 2012 outlier.
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Steven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1357 on: August 12, 2018, 02:01:42 PM »
NSIDC sea ice area is currently 9th lowest for the date:


gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1358 on: August 12, 2018, 02:17:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 August (5 day trailing average) =   4,173,653  km2
This is now 262 k above the 2010-2017 average total area for this date


Total Area loss 37 K ,

Central Seas loss         35 k,
Peripheral Seas loss       1 k, all seas at or near zero area.
Other Seas loss             2 k. all seas at or near zero area.

Analysis of individual seas.
Pacific Side
- The Bering Sea - finished,
- Chukchi Sea loss 3 k, area 107k - a bit below the 2010's average.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea loss 1 k, area 33 k - almost done,
- Greenland Sea gain 0 k, loss stalled or in reverse,
- Barents Sea - finished,
- The Kara Sea area loss 0 k, area is now stuck at 28 k, well under 5% of 1980's average maximum.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 8 k -  area 89k, 10% of maximum.

CAB
- Beaufort Sea loss 5 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago loss 2 k,
- East Siberian Sea loss 0 k .
- The Central Arctic Sea loss 16 k,

Other seas

- St Lawrence -finished,
- Hudson Bay area loss 2 k, Area now 43 k, less than 5% of 1980's average maximum- almost done,
- The Okhotsk Sea - finished.

On average, this is when daily area loss declines sharply  But the area loss of 37 k is below this day's 2010's average by 7 k. Extent loss (also 5-day trailing average)) was 44k, also low for the day. Daily extent ROSE by 35k.

Qu1.  It is all about the 4 central seas now. On the melting season thread there is evidence of strong ice loss along the Atlantic front and predictions of weather favourable for further ice loss. Will above average area losses return strongly in the last 30 days or so of the season ? Not seen for several days so far, the exception being the Laptev (graph attached).

Qu2. How low will Greenland Sea Ice Area go ? If not for the complete oddity that was 2002, the Greenland sea would have been at a record low for most of the year. But in the last 7 days losses have stopped and even seen small gains. An oddity given the ice retreat observed up and around that corner of Greenland.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1359 on: August 12, 2018, 03:39:35 PM »
From the two graphs attached, would you say the sea ice loss in the Central Arctic Sea is currently very much above the 2010's average or very much below ?
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1360 on: August 12, 2018, 04:44:32 PM »
From the two graphs attached, would you say the sea ice loss in the Central Arctic Sea is currently very much above the 2010's average or very much below ?

Given how broken up the ice looks in Worldview I am mostly surprised Area and Extent aren't reversed.

uniquorn

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1361 on: August 12, 2018, 04:46:33 PM »
I would say it is thinner and it disperses more evenly

oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1362 on: August 12, 2018, 04:54:02 PM »
I think the CAB conundrum is easily explained by the shape of the Atlantic front. Normally the ice first turns to low concentration slush (for example the current ESS, Beaufort, Lincoln Sea) and then melts out. But over the Barents/Kara/Laptev CAB front, the heat+wind has been eating the ice edge cleanly with no slush.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1363 on: August 12, 2018, 06:11:04 PM »
I think the CAB conundrum is easily explained by the shape of the Atlantic front. Normally the ice first turns to low concentration slush (for example the current ESS, Beaufort, Lincoln Sea) and then melts out. But over the Barents/Kara/Laptev CAB front, the heat+wind has been eating the ice edge cleanly with no slush.

I've got to say that front doesn't look like how I remember melting in the past (or how it is on the other side).

Maybe someone with the data and software could compare the density by section.  (Comparing the sections over time might be interesting too.)


bbr2314

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1364 on: August 12, 2018, 06:12:02 PM »
I think the CAB conundrum is easily explained by the shape of the Atlantic front. Normally the ice first turns to low concentration slush (for example the current ESS, Beaufort, Lincoln Sea) and then melts out. But over the Barents/Kara/Laptev CAB front, the heat+wind has been eating the ice edge cleanly with no slush.
This has also maximized extent losses as the lack of low concentration ice in this area has limited the amount of open water within the pack. I wonder if years like 2013-14 and 14-15 were muted in melt because so much open water occurred within the High Arctic before the ice could melt out? The unique combination of factors this year has favored the opposite condition across the ATL front, maximizing its retreat (which is now worst-ever...?)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1365 on: August 12, 2018, 08:49:05 PM »
I think the CAB conundrum is easily explained by the shape of the Atlantic front. Normally the ice first turns to low concentration slush (for example the current ESS, Beaufort, Lincoln Sea) and then melts out. But over the Barents/Kara/Laptev CAB front, the heat+wind has been eating the ice edge cleanly with no slush.

Nice one, Oren. Even I can go with that - it all fits with Atlantification. It will be interesting to see if in the last 30 days or so of the melting season this pattern continues, i.e. continued gradual erosion along the Atlantic and Western Russian front .

Extract from A-Team's post in the melting season thread on Aug 11...

Quote
FishOwater's proposal for unprecedented Atlantic Water upwelling and westward dispersal to this region, despite its dire implications for the future of the CAB, is more attractive, though it remains to be seen how it will play out over coming weeks.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2278.msg166819.html#msg166819
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Eco-Author

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1366 on: August 12, 2018, 09:27:19 PM »
I think the CAB conundrum is easily explained by the shape of the Atlantic front. Normally the ice first turns to low concentration slush (for example the current ESS, Beaufort, Lincoln Sea) and then melts out. But over the Barents/Kara/Laptev CAB front, the heat+wind has been eating the ice edge cleanly with no slush.

I did have this in the stupid question section for a week:

The ice just seems it is 'sticking together' more! ...If the ice was thick and cold, cracks and large burgs are the norm, but if ice is thin and warmer... wouldn't this 'slushy' effect dampen this? Perhaps higher surface tension of warmer ice helps it cling together more strongly.  the pack does seem like it has shifted around just as much as it usually does, so leads and lower concentrations should have formed as usual!  If Iceburgs are large, their 'bobbing up and down' in the water may also serve to push them further apart! 

bbr2314

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1367 on: August 12, 2018, 09:56:48 PM »
I think the CAB conundrum is easily explained by the shape of the Atlantic front. Normally the ice first turns to low concentration slush (for example the current ESS, Beaufort, Lincoln Sea) and then melts out. But over the Barents/Kara/Laptev CAB front, the heat+wind has been eating the ice edge cleanly with no slush.

I did have this in the stupid question section for a week:

The ice just seems it is 'sticking together' more! ...If the ice was thick and cold, cracks and large burgs are the norm, but if ice is thin and warmer... wouldn't this 'slushy' effect dampen this? Perhaps higher surface tension of warmer ice helps it cling together more strongly.  the pack does seem like it has shifted around just as much as it usually does, so leads and lower concentrations should have formed as usual!  If Iceburgs are large, their 'bobbing up and down' in the water may also serve to push them further apart!
I would think it was the +++snowfall that occurred over winter 17-18 that has kept it together more, acting like "glue" if you will... once the glue goes, the ice melts very quickly, but maintains more cohesion (?).

Hautbois

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1368 on: August 12, 2018, 10:14:52 PM »
Running back chart update. The tension!

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1369 on: August 13, 2018, 06:37:25 AM »
ADS is already one hour late, so I appreciate if some else post the new data.
Thank you!  :)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Neven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1370 on: August 13, 2018, 02:27:38 PM »
Compactness maybe following 2014 after all:  ::)
Compare, compare, compare

Ned W

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1371 on: August 13, 2018, 03:08:53 PM »
Running back chart update. The tension!

Glad to see the return of this graph.  It's an excellent data visualization. 

Neven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1372 on: August 13, 2018, 03:34:03 PM »
Running back chart update. The tension!

Glad to see the return of this graph.  It's an excellent data visualization.

Indeed, I've added it to the latest PIOMAS update.
Compare, compare, compare

Hautbois

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1373 on: August 13, 2018, 08:02:44 PM »
Running back chart update. The tension!

Glad to see the return of this graph.  It's an excellent data visualization.

Indeed, I've added it to the latest PIOMAS update.
Cool, thanks! My wild guess is that 2018 runs headlong into 2011, possibly squeezing past between 2011 and 2016....

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1374 on: August 13, 2018, 08:57:00 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 August (5 day trailing average) =   4,149,029  km2
This is now 275 k above the 2010-2017 average total area for this date


Total Area loss 25 K ,

Central Seas loss         25 k,
Peripheral Seas loss       0 k, all seas at or near zero area.
Other Seas loss             0 k. all seas at or near zero area.

Analysis of individual seas.
Pacific Side
- The Bering Sea - finished,
- Chukchi Sea loss 3 k, area 104k, a bit below the 2010's average.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea loss 0 k, area 33 k - almost done,
- Greenland Sea gain 0 k, loss stalled or in reverse,
- Barents Sea - finished,
- The Kara Sea area gain 2 k, area is now 30 k, still well under 5% of 1980's average maximum.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 7 k -  area 81k, 10% of maximum.

CAB
- Beaufort Sea loss 0 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago loss 2 k,
- East Siberian Sea loss 1 k .
- The Central Arctic Sea loss 13 k,

Other seas

- St Lawrence -finished,
- Hudson Bay area loss 0 k, Area now 43 k, less than 5% of 1980's average maximum- almost done,
- The Okhotsk Sea - finished

On average, this is when daily area loss declines sharply  But the area loss of 25 k is below this day's 2010's average by 13 k. Extent loss (also 5-day trailing average)) was 40k, also low for the day. Daily extent fell by  67k.

It is all about the 4 central seas now. On the melting season thread there is evidence of strong ice loss along the Atlantic front and predictions of weather favourable for further ice loss. Will above average area losses return strongly in the last 30 days or so of the season ? Not seen for several days so far.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1375 on: August 14, 2018, 06:34:45 AM »
Seems that ADS-NIPR (JAXA) is going to delay the information for the second consecutive day.  :(
Maybe someone from this Forum can inform us whats is happening.

Or post the information if it is updated…

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1376 on: August 14, 2018, 03:19:10 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 August (5 day trailing average) =   4,134,490  km2
This is now 295 k above the 2010-2017 average total area for this date


Total Area loss 15 K ,

Central Seas loss         12 k,
Peripheral Seas loss       0 k, all seas at or near zero area.
Other Seas loss             2 k. all seas at or near zero area.

Analysis of individual seas.
Pacific Side
- The Bering Sea - finished,
- Chukchi Sea loss 3 k, area 101k, a bit below the 2010's average.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea loss 0 k, area 33 k - almost done,
- Greenland Sea gain 0 k, loss stalled or in reverse,
- Barents Sea - finished,
- The Kara Sea area gain 2 k, area is now 32 k, still well under 5% of 1980's average maximum.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 8 k -  area 73 k, <10% of maximum.

CAB
- Beaufort Sea loss 3 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago gain 3 k,
- East Siberian Sea loss 6 k .
- The Central Arctic Sea gain 2 k,

Other seas

- St Lawrence -finished,
- Hudson Bay area loss 3 k, Area now 40 k, less than 5% of 1980's average maximum- almost done,
- The Okhotsk Sea - finished

On average, this is when daily area loss declines sharply  But even so, the area loss of 15k is below this day's 2010's average by 20 k. Extent loss (also 5-day trailing average)) was 44k, a bit below average for the day. But daily extent fell by 107k  after 67k the day before..

It is all about the 4 central seas now. On the melting season thread there is evidence of strong ice loss along the Atlantic front and predictions of weather favourable for further ice loss. Will above average area losses return strongly in the last 30 days or so of the season ? Not seen for several days so far.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1377 on: Today at 06:18:46 AM »
Seems that ADS-NIPR (JAXA) is going to delay the information for the third consecutive day.
There is no tweet explaining what is happening.
I will thank if someone post the information, if it is updated.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1378 on: Today at 07:42:56 AM »
Seems that ADS-NIPR (JAXA) is going to delay the information for the third consecutive day.
There is no tweet explaining what is happening.

3 days with no data and no tweet. This is when I always start to worry about that ageing satellite.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Darvince

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1379 on: Today at 08:06:16 AM »
This is entirely the fault of JAXA/ADS. There is still data coming in from AMSR-2, see https://go.nasa.gov/2MQg3hj