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Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (December)  (Read 855121 times)

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1700 on: May 03, 2017, 08:05:37 PM »
This is the basic reason for the low volume:


As can be seen the FDD anomaly continued in its record trajectory through April.

romett1

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1701 on: May 03, 2017, 08:17:28 PM »

As can be seen the FDD anomaly continued in its record trajectory through April.

Yes, this is scary graph - now we have both 2016 and 2017 in uncharted territory. It's interesting to watch what happens in May. In 2012, 2013 and 2015 temps were slightly colder than average (north of 80°).
« Last Edit: May 03, 2017, 09:23:52 PM by romett1 »

Jim Pettit

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1702 on: May 03, 2017, 09:14:37 PM »
Uh-oh:





I'll post the rest later, but wanted to get these two up now...
« Last Edit: May 03, 2017, 09:20:30 PM by Jim Pettit »

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1703 on: May 03, 2017, 09:29:43 PM »
PIOMAS definitely trending down, we'll have to go to war with the army we have...

Jim Williams

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1704 on: May 03, 2017, 10:00:36 PM »
Uh-oh:





I'll post the rest later, but wanted to get these two up now...

I can see why...your projection from here for various years sort of says it all.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1705 on: May 03, 2017, 10:36:09 PM »
once things become obvious to the most stupid and ignorant it's too late in most cases.

just never buy stock once it's in the news, LOL just one example.

however, considering how much we're all, and some of us more, talking against walls it's totally frustrating and sounds like a bad joke hearing one after another chiming in now that nothing can be reverted anymore.

howerver that's not a reason to give up or stop our efforts, on the opposite, but then it's damage control now, not solutions and no repairs/reversal seems realistic.
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Blizzard92

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1706 on: May 03, 2017, 10:41:05 PM »
I have updated all of my sea ice thickness/volume plots at http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/. Not a good look for the current distribution of thicker sea ice during April...
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1707 on: May 03, 2017, 10:56:13 PM »
Blizzard92, thanks. The positive April thickness anomaly seems perfectly situated to be flushed down the Fram...

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1708 on: May 03, 2017, 11:11:06 PM »
Blizzard92, thanks. The positive April thickness anomaly seems perfectly situated to be flushed down the Fram...
And really one of the big questions this year - this also relates to CognitiveBias' earlier question what could go wrong with PIOMAS - is whether PIOMAS was right to place that anomalous thick blob where it hasn't been before, instead of closer to the Greenland and Ellesmere coasts. This potentially causes PIOMAS to overestimate export and thus arrive at a low volume that refuses to grow as long as export continues. Or, PIOMAS is simply right, which is more probable.

Blizzard92

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1709 on: May 03, 2017, 11:21:18 PM »
Blizzard92, thanks. The positive April thickness anomaly seems perfectly situated to be flushed down the Fram...
And really one of the big questions this year - this also relates to CognitiveBias' earlier question what could go wrong with PIOMAS - is whether PIOMAS was right to place that anomalous thick blob where it hasn't been before, instead of closer to the Greenland and Ellesmere coasts. This potentially causes PIOMAS to overestimate export and thus arrive at a low volume that refuses to grow as long as export continues. Or, PIOMAS is simply right, which is more probable.

Comparing with CS-2 and the latest sea ice age analysis from the NSIDC (https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/05/warm-arctic-cool-continents/), I think there is some fair validity to April's distribution of thickness in PIOMAS.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1710 on: May 03, 2017, 11:23:02 PM »
Blizzard92, thanks. The positive April thickness anomaly seems perfectly situated to be flushed down the Fram...
And really one of the big questions this year - this also relates to CognitiveBias' earlier question what could go wrong with PIOMAS - is whether PIOMAS was right to place that anomalous thick blob where it hasn't been before, instead of closer to the Greenland and Ellesmere coasts. This potentially causes PIOMAS to overestimate export and thus arrive at a low volume that refuses to grow as long as export continues. Or, PIOMAS is simply right, which is more probable
PIOMAS misalignment apparently failed to place thicker ice closer to Greenland coasts, the Greenland sea, and the CAB/ESS sector wrt Cryosat iirc. In the first two cases, and if these deviations were real, it should not make a substantial  difference in the total volume evolutuon (chicken in chicken out, what does not melt in Greenland sea melts out North of Svalbard). The ESS, ..., not sure how large that bias could represent if real.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1711 on: May 03, 2017, 11:39:30 PM »
Daily data out

2017 120  20.640 1.642 below previous lowest for day
2011 120  22.282
2016 120  22.365

Last month
2017  90  20.398 1.731 below previous lowest for day
2011  90  22.129
2016  90  22.330

max:

2017 108  20.756 1.921 below previous lowest for max
2011 109  22.677
2016 110  22.593

So gap went up from 1.731 end of last month to 1.921 at max and then fell to 1.642. What might be expected is more the opposite of the gap narrowing towards the max but then opening out in the melt season. However weather can certainly dominate such expected effects.


Blizzard92

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1712 on: May 04, 2017, 02:54:36 AM »
Not exactly sure how to resize this large file, so here is a link to my time series animation of sea ice thickness/volume: https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/859916794164727808
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Juan C. García

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1713 on: May 04, 2017, 03:37:39 AM »
Scary:

1. New lowest volume record on April at 20,651 km3. Usually, there is a drop from April to May. Being the lowest May record 21,026 km3 (2016), the 2017 April value is already 375 km3 lower than the lowest May record, so we surely will have a new May record this year.

2. The ice that is thicker than average, can easily leave the Arctic Ocean following the Fram Strait route (according to PIOMAS thickness anomaly).

So, if you want to talk about a year in which the ice looks vulnerable on April figures, 2017 should win that place!
« Last Edit: May 04, 2017, 03:51:03 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1714 on: May 04, 2017, 03:58:16 AM »
Scary:
《Snippage》
2. The ice that is thicker than average, can easily leave the Arctic Ocean following the Fram Strait route (according to PIOMAS thickness anomaly).

It's doesn't even have to move. The Atlantic flow around Svalbard typical of the last few years no doubt is already tearing at it.  It won't last through June even if it doesn't move a centimeter.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1715 on: May 04, 2017, 08:04:23 AM »
I updated my graphics, see the top post

Attached my year-by-year anomaly graph showing the strong negative anomaly  was as flat as pizza in April.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1716 on: May 04, 2017, 08:06:39 AM »
The animation for April. You may have a look what the Beaufort region is doing.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1717 on: May 04, 2017, 08:11:58 AM »
The volume gap with 2012 (record low annual) makes a little wiggle, but at the end has not changed much.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1718 on: May 04, 2017, 08:22:10 AM »
Finally the 30 April 2017 thickness map, compared with previous years.

TerryM

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1719 on: May 04, 2017, 10:11:15 AM »
Wip


Are we due for another cliff within the next weeks as the thick mass begins to advect through Fram, or will the now normal temperatures N. of 80 slow things down?


Truly frightening conditions made clear by your excellent charts.


Thanks again
Terry

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1720 on: May 04, 2017, 01:01:39 PM »
Wip


Are we due for another cliff within the next weeks as the thick mass begins to advect through Fram, or will the now normal temperatures N. of 80 slow things down?


Truly frightening conditions made clear by your excellent charts.


Thanks again
Terry

June cliffs (which start in May) are normal now. The anomaly hasn't caught up with the change in the melt season so anomalous behaviour in the next couple of months is to be expected. It takes really bad weather to hold the anomaly flat for the next couple months.

The anomaly didn't twitch in April despite the blob shrinking. It looks impressive on the color scale, but I don't think its actually large enough to affect the overall picture much.

I expect the blob to carry on shrinking, and I expect a cliff, but I don't think one will be causing the other.


gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1721 on: May 04, 2017, 02:53:08 PM »
The PIOMAS April volume is 1,800 km3 less than the previous minimum for April in 2011. That is an average of 300 km3 per annum or just about dead on 1% per year (of the 1979 value), in complete sync with the 37% decline in maximum volume since 1979. That is, coincidentally, just above the PIOMAS calculation of 280 km3 p.a. annual average  loss during the entire satellite record.

That the volume has been so far below previous minimums for about 6 months is impressive. But the average data implies that this April's record low maximum does not mean that winter sea ice decline has suddenly accelerated ?

Note that I do not dare speculate on what this low volume means for the rest of this year's melting season.
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Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1722 on: May 04, 2017, 04:17:34 PM »

Are we due for another cliff within the next weeks as the thick mass begins to advect through Fram, or will the now normal temperatures N. of 80 slow things down?

The monthly figure does not show a particular large or small Fram export, bit below 2016 a bit above 2015, quite normal.

I will look at the daily data, see if that shows something dramatic.

Quote
Truly frightening conditions made clear by your excellent charts.


Remember PIOMAS models where the thickness is. It may well be off without affecting off. Jaxa thickness measured by microwave radiation places the thick blobs at slightly different positions. Jaxa thickness does have its own problems of course.


oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1723 on: May 04, 2017, 05:30:16 PM »
Thanks for all the posts Wipneus. The comparison charts show that while last year's ground zero was the Beaufort, this year it's the ESS and its vicinity, although the Beaufort will be interesting too. Oh, and that blob is still on its way to the Fram.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1724 on: May 04, 2017, 06:42:09 PM »
April update of PIOMAS volume versus Arctic NCEP reanalysis temp:

Anomalies are plotted to allow the partial year 2017 to be shown correctly - the last point at the lower right is Jan to Apr 2017.

...




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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1725 on: May 04, 2017, 09:12:48 PM »
 :o
« Last Edit: May 04, 2017, 09:32:54 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Archimid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1726 on: May 04, 2017, 10:16:01 PM »
The first graph is Day of Max Volume. In 2017 it was on day 108.
The second graph is Volume Gain. That is max volume - min volume of the same freezing season.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1727 on: May 04, 2017, 10:29:23 PM »
Total freeze:
Compare, compare, compare

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1728 on: May 04, 2017, 10:29:41 PM »
Thanks for all the posts Wipneus. The comparison charts show that while last year's ground zero was the Beaufort, this year it's the ESS and its vicinity, although the Beaufort will be interesting too. Oh, and that blob is still on its way to the Fram.

Ditto. It's also interesting to consider how the ESS, Chukchi and Beaufort sea ice provide buffers that protect the CAB. Hopefully Beaufort holds it own, because it would not be good if all these CAB fronts open up early. These areas need some negative feedbacks (like the clouds of 2016 melt season) and less winds, both of which do not seem to be in the forecast.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1729 on: May 04, 2017, 10:54:06 PM »
Total freeze:

This is probably the most important statistic Neven.  Can you give us a comparison with the 20th Century?

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1730 on: May 04, 2017, 11:33:24 PM »
No, I can't, Jim. I'm only using data from 2006 onwards.

Blog post is up: PIOMAS May 2017.
Compare, compare, compare

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1731 on: May 04, 2017, 11:48:19 PM »
My favorite chart, End-April volume, not even remarkable. A simple continuation of what looks like a linear trend, past a "plateau" that may have been random variability in hindsight.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1732 on: May 05, 2017, 12:30:35 AM »
Once we get the dreaded September Blue Ocean event, those linear straight lines for April volume may start curving downwards pretty quickly.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1733 on: May 05, 2017, 12:48:03 AM »
My favorite chart, End-April volume, not even remarkable. A simple continuation of what looks like a linear trend, past a "plateau" that may have been random variability in hindsight.

This is good, however, it must also be suggested that the 2013 & 2014 'recovery' years were black swan events and are pushing the trend anomalously higher (straighter).  If these years effects did not occur and the volume gain during those years was removed then the trend would fall well below the long-term linear trend.

I believe for several reasons that these years events were a statistical outlier over 4 sig. 
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1734 on: May 05, 2017, 01:02:25 AM »
My favorite chart, End-April volume, not even remarkable. A simple continuation of what looks like a linear trend, past a "plateau" that may have been random variability in hindsight.

This is good, however, it must also be suggested that the 2013 & 2014 'recovery' years were black swan events and are pushing the trend anomalously higher (straighter).  If these years effects did not occur and the volume gain during those years was removed then the trend would fall well below the long-term linear trend.

I believe for several reasons that these years events were a statistical outlier over 4 sig.

"Black Swan" seems a bit too extreme.  The paleontological evidence seems to indicate a bit of stuttering before the actual climate switch.  This is also consistent with how natural systems generally tend to undergo a change of state in General Systems Theory.  Most of the time the system tends to choke a few times before flipping to a new state.  If you think about it, that is what happens with things like computer networks which are in the process of crashing -- they stutter and then fail.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1735 on: May 05, 2017, 08:38:11 AM »

I will look at the daily data, see if that shows something dramatic.


Here is a graph of this years daily Fram Export (calculated from PIOMAS data). Large swings, but on average rather normal (April export average about 0.22 [1000km^3/month]). Month ends even negative, if that is comforting.


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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1736 on: May 05, 2017, 04:01:09 PM »
Here is a graph of this years daily Fram Export (calculated from PIOMAS data). Large swings, but on average rather normal (April export average about 0.22 [1000km^3/month]). Month ends even negative, if that is comforting.

Thanks for producing this.  The graph that would look more alarming, though, is volume ex Greenland Sea (i.e., amount not yet exported through Fram Strait).

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1737 on: May 05, 2017, 04:35:06 PM »
I am curious as gk whether these export figures include stuff melting along the extensive Atlantic front. Not technically "exported" but killed before exiting the basin. This seems high this year.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1738 on: May 05, 2017, 04:48:51 PM »
I am curious as gk whether these export figures include stuff melting along the extensive Atlantic front. Not technically "exported" but killed before exiting the basin. This seems high this year.

I think that the "high" extent (3rd lowest on record) is mostly due to that push of thick ice into the Atlantic. In a way it is helping because that ice in the periphery is keeping the albedo lower for longer.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1739 on: May 05, 2017, 05:35:49 PM »
Surely the graph Wipneus produced is the area flux of ice across some line in Fram Strait connecting Svalbard and Greenland multiplied by the average thickness of the ice. So ice melting before it reaches that line, or ice exported through the gap between Svalbard and FJL etc., is not counted in this graph. And ice melting in the Greenland Sea after the line is not relevant to this figure.
And since the graph is in absolute numbers, it doesn't show the export as a percentage of melt.
And the graph doesn't show the volume of just old ice being exported.
All of which are quite interesting, but are more difficult (some impossible?) to calculate.

Just as an example, The Lincoln Sea at the entrance to Nares Strait is currently exporting very young thin ice on a southbound surface current. As soon as the ice gets flushed, the polynya freezes again, and within some days the new ice is exported again. Over several months this might show as significant exported volume but is totally sustainable. OTOH, if the "arch" in the Lincoln Sea were to crumble, we could see export of very old and thick ice over some weeks, which would be a major blow to the arctic sea ice even if total exported volume would be similar.
So my "wishful thinking" would be to calculate the net effect of export minus the ice created behind in the exporting source zones, which also depends on low temperatures able to refreeze the opening leads and polynyas.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1740 on: May 05, 2017, 05:45:31 PM »
I believe for several reasons that these years events were a statistical outlier over 4 sig.

"Black Swan" seems a bit too extreme.  The paleontological evidence seems to indicate a bit of stuttering before the actual climate switch.  This is also consistent with how natural systems generally tend to undergo a change of state in General Systems Theory.  Most of the time the system tends to choke a few times before flipping to a new state.  If you think about it, that is what happens with things like computer networks which are in the process of crashing -- they stutter and then fail.

Jim

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1741 on: May 05, 2017, 11:55:06 PM »
Surely the graph Wipneus produced is the area flux of ice across some line in Fram Strait connecting Svalbard and Greenland multiplied by the average thickness of the ice. So ice melting before it reaches that line, or ice exported through the gap between Svalbard and FJL etc., is not counted in this graph. And ice melting in the Greenland Sea after the line is not relevant to this figure.
And since the graph is in absolute numbers, it doesn't show the export as a percentage of melt.
And the graph doesn't show the volume of just old ice being exported.
All of which are quite interesting, but are more difficult (some impossible?) to calculate.

Just as an example, The Lincoln Sea at the entrance to Nares Strait is currently exporting very young thin ice on a southbound surface current. As soon as the ice gets flushed, the polynya freezes again, and within some days the new ice is exported again.

...

So my "wishful thinking" would be to calculate the net effect of export minus the ice created behind in the exporting source zones, which also depends on low temperatures able to refreeze the opening leads and polynyas.

However, wouldn't the "latent heat of re-freeezing" be effectively another form of transfer of heat from further south where that newly-frozen-then-transported-south new ice is eventually melted?

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #1742 on: May 05, 2017, 11:58:58 PM »
However, wouldn't the "latent heat of re-freezing" be effectively another form of transfer of heat from further south where that newly-frozen-then-transported-south new ice is eventually melted?
Indeed, I'm just focusing on the primary effect on arctic sea ice volume, but of course the secondary effect is on arctic energy balance which eventually affects volume in a feedback cycle.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1743 on: May 25, 2017, 07:38:01 AM »
There was a late-May update of the so called giceday data. Giceday is a gridded piomas data that specifies the thickness distribution in each gridcell, using dividing the ice into 12 thickness categories.

From giceday I can calculate average thickness from which volume is calculated. This does not exactly reproduce the official volume data but it is close enough.

With that said, volume calculated from gice on day 142 2017 was 19.4 [103km3]

If confirmed, that means the volume gap has been reduced considerable. Difference with 2012 on day 142 is about 1.6 [103km3], at day 120 it was still about 2.5 [103km3]


oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1744 on: May 25, 2017, 07:44:41 AM »
Thank you Wipneus for your continual amazing work.

Finally it seems the slow extent declines and the low DMI temps are having some effect.

DavidR

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1745 on: May 26, 2017, 10:40:32 AM »
From giceday I can calculate average thickness from which volume is calculated. This does not exactly reproduce the official volume data but it is close enough.

With that said, volume calculated from gice on day 142 2017 was 19.4 [103km3]

If confirmed, that means the volume gap has been reduced considerable. Difference with 2012 on day 142 is about 1.6 [103km3], at day 120 it was still about 2.5 [103km3]
However in 2012, on day 120,  there was about 700K km^2 more ice in the Pacific than this year compared to about 200K on day 142. So the closing of the gap with 2012 is not  unexpected.

However ice disappearing in the Pacific is almost unrelated to the Arctic basin.  In my view the slow decline in extent in the Arctic and Atlantic is as much about  loose ice spreading than a slow  decline. It will be interesting to see how the PIOMAS figures compare with the previous records at the end of May. 
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #1746 on: May 26, 2017, 02:10:30 PM »
Eyeballing the numbers for the hundredth time, I would hazard the following guesses regarding upper volume limits, based on past performance and unreliable gut feeling:
April 20.800
May 19.800
June 15.800 (still a record though barely)
In terms of probability I wouldn't be surprised to see lower numbers, even much lower, but I would be surprised to see higher numbers.
Looking at past years and their numbers, and using my crystal Excel ball, I would hazard an estimate that a 19.4 volume on day 142 will result in a ~19.8 May monthly number.
If true, and as this coincides with my "upper volume limit" for May, I'd say it's still within the historical norm but rather poor. Not what you'd expect from a record year, though I still expect 2017 to be a record year with good probability.
A regional analysis quantifying the volume in Barents/Greenland/Baffin, Bering/Okhotsk, and the rest of the Arctic, compared to previous months and years, could help shed more light on 2017's prospects. Any tips on how to go about calculating these numbers?

FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1747 on: May 26, 2017, 05:40:24 PM »
The decline of ice in the Pacific and the cool period in the area near the pole this May are a function of the weather. At winter's end in the Arctic the polar vortex was displaced towards the Barents and Kara seas.

If this pattern persists we will see a strong dipole develop with a strong transpolar drift. Hopefully, it won't be as persistent as 2007. Right now the snow cover pattern is supporting the persistence of warmth in the Beaufort sea and cold on the Atlantic side of the pole.

bbr2314

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1748 on: May 26, 2017, 09:03:02 PM »
The decline of ice in the Pacific and the cool period in the area near the pole this May are a function of the weather. At winter's end in the Arctic the polar vortex was displaced towards the Barents and Kara seas.

If this pattern persists we will see a strong dipole develop with a strong transpolar drift. Hopefully, it won't be as persistent as 2007. Right now the snow cover pattern is supporting the persistence of warmth in the Beaufort sea and cold on the Atlantic side of the pole.
Atlantic SSTs are far colder than any year since/including 2012 (based on HYCOM maps), at least the far NW ATL. The heat is displaced toward Europe and also N of Scandinavia. The contrast with recent years is quite extreme, and would seem to indicate severe disruptions of whatever previous influence the Gulf Stream had SE of Newfoundland.

FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« Reply #1749 on: May 26, 2017, 09:39:00 PM »
The North Atlantic SST anomaly is the result of persistent storminess centered in the  north Atlantic between Spain and New England It has driven persistent north winds which have created an unusual temperature anomaly pattern. Warm, salty water is circulating around iceland and Greenland into the Labrador sea, but there has been a strong push of cold relatively fresh water down the coast of Canada.

The continued wrapping of the warm, salty water around the pool of cold water, which has a gravity anomaly indicating high density, is consistent with active deep water formation this past winter.  Of course, this is not the final word, just my preliminary analysis. The oceanographers can publish what happened this winter over the next few years.  I'm sure it's far more complicated than anything I've suggested here.

The net effect on sea ice thickness may be that warm Atlantic water pushed at a stronger than normal rate into the Barents sea. That means, when the predicted storms hit over the next week, that waves could mix up warm water which could flash melt a large volume of ice now present in the Barents sea. This will be interesting to watch.