1) JUNE DATA & A LONGER TERM VIEW
I've had a look at the June data in the context of longer-term trends.
The September volume minimum has been declining at a linear trend of around 320 km3 per annum. The 2010's average minimum volume is just under 5,000 km3. Assuming
- 5,000 km3 as the 2010's midpoint value (i.e. 2004),
- and an average loss rate in the following 5 years of 320 km3 per annum,
then in 2019 the minimum volume would be 1,600 km3 less, i.e. 3,400 km3. This is just 100 km3 more than the result from assuming an average volume loss from now to minimum.
Then one could say that the result of the major volume loss in June was mainly to make it more likely to get the September minimum back a bit below trend. The data obviously has no view in whether remaining volume loss will be above, below or at average.
2) TEALIGHT'S HIGH ARCTIC (or the 7 Central Seas of Kara+Laptev+ESS+Chukchi+Beaufort+CAA+CAB)
High Arctic volume is lowest in the satellite record.
High Arctic Area is lowest in the satellite record.
High Arctic Average thickness is 2nd lowest in the satellite record - 2017 being the lowest. This is simply because 2017 area was around 500,000 km2 more than 2019 at the end of June.
What really matters is that on volume and thickness 2019 is below 2012 and 2016.
What also matters is that 2019 Albedo Warming Potential (AWP) in the High Arctic is also highest.
So Albedo joins volume and thickness to suggest, that in the seas that matter from now to minimum, record low volume, thickness and area is more likely.
