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Apocalypse4Real

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Arctic Methane Release
« on: February 17, 2013, 05:01:55 PM »
Welcome to the Arctic Sea Ice Forum - Arctic Methane Topic!

I will post observations and comments on methane release in the Arctic Basin and surrounding seas or land areas on this thread.

There is a website I maintain which tracks methane release for AIRS/AQUA/IASI methane imagery with the kind contribution of Dr. Leonid Yurganov. It is found at:

https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4real/home/sea-ice-thickness

I also maintain a set of imagery for METOPS 2 IASI CH4 at this site:

https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4real/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb


Artful Dodger

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2013, 11:58:56 PM »
Hi A4R,

Do you follow JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) press releases for their Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), called "IBUKI"? Here's the latest one, from Dec 5, 2012:

http://www.jaxa.jp/press/2012/12/20121205_ibuki_e.html

Although the PR above concerns C02, JAXA has also previously published Arctic methane maps. JAXA also makes some data available for download to registered Users. It may be of some interest to you (indeed, to all of us here on the Arctic sea ice Forum).

Here's more:

What is GOSAT, "IBUKI"?
http://www.gosat.nies.go.jp/eng/gosat/info.htm
Cheers!
Lodger

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2013, 12:04:09 AM »
A4R,

Thanks for beginning to start this topic.  It was my concerns about methane release from the ESAS that brought me to learning more about the ice-loss in the arctic ocean.

I don't have much to add today... just learning how to use this new forum.
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2013, 05:23:38 AM »
Artful,

Thanks for the link, I have looked for results and imagery from JAXA with no success. I will have a look this weekend, or when I get snowed in...tomorrow!


Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2013, 05:26:42 AM »
Old Leatherneck,

We ended up here for similar reasons. The ice was secondary to what was happening with potential methane release, which is why I track it.

I will post here each time I update the METOP 2, Giovanni or other methane imagery to keep you and others up to date.

A4R

Artful Dodger

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2013, 07:46:53 AM »
I have looked for results and imagery from JAXA with no success.

Hi, A4R

ESA makes the GOSAT data available here:
https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/data-access/browse-data-products?p_r_p_564233524_tag=gosat

JAXA provides a GOSAT portal here:
http://www.jaxa.jp/press/2009/10/20091030_ibuki_e.html
Cheers!
Lodger

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2013, 01:27:06 PM »
Lodger,

Thanks for the repost.

Also, there is a new report on Arctic Sea Ice decline and impact on green house gasses in the Arctic:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1784.html

According to Dr. Parmentier, in a comment in Decoded Science:

“We have less data available for methane emissions; it is, therefore, more difficult to establish a connection between sea-ice extent and CH4 release. However, it is reasonable to think that, with a smaller sea-ice extent, an increase in CH4 emissions is likely; indeed some modelling studies predict this.”

http://www.decodedscience.com/arctic-sea-ice-level-effects-on-greenhouse-gases-exchange-and-the-environment/26042


OldLeatherneck

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2013, 12:05:59 AM »
A4R,

In the last few weeks there have been many posts about the radiative forcing of CH4.  It's an issue that concerns me greatly, because I don't think it's a topic that is well understood.

If you want to keep this thread concentrated on the release of CH4, I/we/someone can open a separate thread on the topic of radiative forcing.
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TerryM

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2013, 01:47:22 PM »
A4R,

In the last few weeks there have been many posts about the radiative forcing of CH4.  It's an issue that concerns me greatly, because I don't think it's a topic that is well understood.

If you want to keep this thread concentrated on the release of CH4, I/we/someone can open a separate thread on the topic of radiative forcing.

Hope the topic I started addresses some of your concerns. What the real time effect of having a methane cloud overhead might be doesn't seem to have been fully addressed. - at least in the literature that I've been able to access.

Terry

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2013, 01:53:36 PM »
Let's do radiative forcing under methane cloud.

I have added a compilation of CH4 forcing to my webpage:

https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4real/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

In regard to methane release, I have more imagery to post to the METOP 2, and will get to it over the weekend. I have 2 major projects today for work.

idunno

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2013, 06:20:28 PM »
New to me, and looking absolutely barking mad to me on the following site...

http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.co.uk/

...concern over growth of marine hydrogen sulphide emissions...

Anybody in a position to say whether this is a worry, or not?

TerryM

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2013, 08:09:23 PM »
New to me, and looking absolutely barking mad to me on the following site...

http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.co.uk/

...concern over growth of marine hydrogen sulphide emissions...

Anybody in a position to say whether this is a worry, or not?

At least he's not an alarmist:

 More multiples of people will be found dead in their homes, as if they'd dropped dead.

If they're going to die in their homes, I'd personally prefer that they be found there dead. The alternatives such as being found as if they'd dropped alive bring to many bad Zombie flicks to mind.

Terry

TerryM

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2013, 08:10:15 PM »
New to me, and looking absolutely barking mad to me on the following site...

http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.co.uk/

...concern over growth of marine hydrogen sulphide emissions...

Anybody in a position to say whether this is a worry, or not?

At least he's not an alarmist:

 More multiples of people will be found dead in their homes, as if they'd dropped dead.

If they're going to die in their homes, I'd personally prefer that they be found there dead. The alternatives such as being found as if they'd dropped alive bring to many bad Zombie flicks to mind.

Terry

Pierre-Andre Morin

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2013, 08:02:42 AM »
I am pretty ignorant in this matter but there are a few things I do not understand.
Also this may not be the best board to post this...

They concern Methane which seems the be the unknown factor(at least for me ;) )

Almost all reports about CH4 are comparing the impact of Methane to 20 times the impact of CO2.
But I have read that this is only true after 100 years (actually I read 226 times on the short tem, 76 times after 20 years and 20 times after 20 years).

So I have a few questions:
  • What is the immediate impact of CH4 release compare to CO2?
  • What is the impact of Ch4 after 20 years?
  • Given our current situation, why should we focus on long term impact of CH4 instead of short term?

BTW, Personnaly, the impact of CH4 in 100 years is not important when the impact is much greater in 20 years. I am pretty sure than in 20 years, we will be either in deep trouble or we will be adressing GHG very seriously.

Like fracking... If we loose 3% of it and the short term impact is 100X the CO2, then every ton of CH4 generates three tons of Co2 equivalent...
Add the burning of CH4 (generating CO2) we can say that every CH4 extracted with fracking generates 4X the CO2.
Given Petrol looks like C8H18...
This would mean that:
  • With 3% lost of Ch4 in fracking (conservative), fracking is half the impact of petrol (if both generates the same BTU); (3 X 100% of Co2 plus 1 times (.97 if you prefer) is giving 4 X CO2 while C8H18 give 8 CO2)
  • With 7% lost of CH4 during extraction, then fracking is same as petrol.

PS I think the BTU/Energy generated by Petrol is much higher than CH4... This would need to be adjusted in my calculationé

Artful Dodger

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #14 on: February 24, 2013, 08:12:13 AM »
I have a few questions:
  • What is the immediate impact of CH4 release compare to CO2?
  • What is the impact of Ch4 after 20 years?
  • Given our current situation, why should we focus on long term impact of CH4 instead of short term?

Hi Pierre-Andre, welcome and bienvenue!

The graph below is from a 2009 paper which is now out of sequester, for your reading pleasure :^)

D.T. Shindell et al., "Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions". Science vol 326: pp. 716-718 (2009)

Find a copy with Google Scholar:
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=5198717999429845339&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5&as_vis=1

Hope this helps!
Cheers!
Lodger

Bruce Steele

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2013, 04:59:17 AM »
The only large hydrogen sulfide plumes I know of are of the coast of Namibia.
Credit: Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC
Along Namibian coast, off southwest Africa, a cold, deep current snakes northward past the Namib Desert carrying icy waters from deep in the Southern Ocean. Year-round southerly winds cause the warmer surface waters near the coast to be deflected westward away from shore, and the cold waters of the Benguela Current rise up from the depths to replace them.
In the ocean, the welling up of cold water has a positive influence on living organisms. As ocean organisms grow and reproduce in the surface waters of the ocean, they use up the nutrients there. Cold waters welling up from deep in the ocean replenish those nutrients and often result in a rapid increase in marine plant life, called a bloom. The individual, microscopic plants, called phytoplankton, live just a few days, and when they die their remains sink to the bottom of the ocean, where they build up in the mud on the coastal floor.
Bottom-dwelling bacteria chew through this rich belt of coastal mud, decomposing the phytoplankton remains. The result of this decomposition can be seen in this true-color Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image from the Aqua satellite, acquired on October 16, 2003, in which the coastal waters appear milky-green.
Some bacteria consume oxygen as they break down the plant remains, giving off carbon dioxide and water as by-products. But eventually, all the oxygen is used up. At that point, other bacteria take over the decomposition. These bacteria use a form of sulfur when they decompose the organic matter, and give off hydrogen sulfide gas as a by- product. The hydrogen sulfide gas periodically bubbles up from the ocean bottom, and when it encounters more oxygen-rich water near the surface, a chemical reaction occurs that transforms the sulfide gas into pure sulfur. In the first stages of the reaction, the sulfur appears white, and in this image creates a milky-green green tinge to the water. When the transformation is more complete, the plume will look very green.a mixture of the yellow sulfur and blue water.
Ironically, the region’s high productivity is also one of its greatest threats, since the hydrogen sulfide gas resulting from such an explosion of life and its inevitable decay is highly toxic to the fish and other marine animals that feed off the phytoplankton. Periodic die-offs of whole populations of fish and other commercial seafood are ongoing concerns for the regional fishing industry.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2013, 05:35:07 AM »
In general as the oceans warm they will stratify and this will reduce mixing of surface O2 rich waters. The bacterial decomposition of organic matter on the seafloor further reduces O2 at depth. The discovery of anoxic waters in the Arctic may not be a new development but more research is in order.“We were able to demonstrate for the first time that the warming and the associated physical changes in the Central Arctic cause fast reactions in the entire ecosystem down to the deep sea“, summarises lead author Boetius. The deep sea has so far been seen as a relatively inert system affected by global warming only with a considerable temporal delay. The fact that microbial decomposition processes fueled by the algal deposits can generate anoxic spots in the deep sea floor within one season alarms the researcher: “We do not know yet whether we have observed a one-time phenomenon or whether this high algal export will continue in the coming years.“ Current predictions by climate models assume that an ice-free summer could occur in the Arctic in the next decades. Boetius and her team warn: “We still understand far too little about the function of the Arctic ecosystem and its biodiversity and productivity, to be able to estimate the consequences of the rapid sea-ice decline.“
 

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2013, 03:15:24 PM »
Hi Bruce,

Let's keep this thread open for Arctic Methane and start a new thread for hydrogen sulfide.

I have updated the Arctic methane release through Febraury 19 2013 am. There was wide spread release or concentration in the Atlantic, Russia and Norwegian and Kara Seas.

See: https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

Bruce Steele

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #18 on: February 25, 2013, 04:08:23 PM »
A4R, I knew I was a bit off topic but tried to answer the Hydrogen Sulfide question. Carbon Cycle is on tread title but does deserve it's own focus. I would like to ask a question re. methane. Are there studies which describe methanotroph  efficiency ?  I know the answer probably varies but Co2 produced contributes to acidification along with other processes. I have asked around but haven't found anything.

Artful Dodger

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #19 on: February 25, 2013, 10:57:19 PM »
Are there studies which describe methanotroph  efficiency?

Hi Bruce,

Some good places to start reading are listed in the 'References' section of the Wikipedia article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methanotroph
Cheers!
Lodger

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2013, 03:59:34 AM »
I have updated the METOP 2 IASI CH4 through Feb 20 2013 pm

There are significant areas of high methane, especially in the Pacific or Inner Mongolia.

https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #21 on: February 27, 2013, 03:40:32 PM »
I have updated the METOP2/B IASI CH4 Google Earth imagery through 22 Feb 2013 pm, and added the IASI imagery through 24 February 2013 pm. No time for more Google Earth till later this week.

https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

Here is what the Google Earth imagery shows as of 22 Feb 2013 pm for methane release at 718 mb with concnetrations reading as high as 2145 PPBv.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #22 on: February 27, 2013, 05:52:39 PM »
Thanks for the efforts here A4R!

Seeing as my PC is not 'modern' is there any way for you to give us your appraisal as to whether levels are high or low compared to what we have been seeing since 07'?

I know it means more work for your good self but I do feel that we are on the cusp of a pretty rapid CH4 release from the Arctic (Siberian shelf sea area) and ,as such, value your processing of current data.
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #23 on: February 28, 2013, 06:18:07 AM »

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #24 on: February 28, 2013, 03:05:59 PM »
I have updated the METOP 2/B images through febraury 26, 2013 pm. they reveal that there is high methane release over the Barents and Kara the last few days.

Also there is a significant area of high methane concentration over Antarctica.

See: https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #25 on: February 28, 2013, 07:02:03 PM »
Thanks A4R!

Looking at all the shattered ice there I'm wondering if this shows us a leaking of the gas that was trapped at the surface below the ice?

If so I wonder if we ought to see increases over the shattered Beaufort ice?
KOYAANISQATSI

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Artful Dodger

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #26 on: March 01, 2013, 06:29:38 AM »
If so I wonder if we ought to see increases over the shattered Beaufort ice?
Hi Gray-Wolf,

I think you'd need to overlay a continental shelf map with a sea ice concentration map. The 'at-risk' clathrates are the ones in warming, shallow water, for instance the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.
Cheers!
Lodger

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #27 on: March 01, 2013, 03:24:46 PM »
I have added the METOP 2 IASI CH4 imgery through February 28, 2013 pm to the webpage. I will add Google Earth later, time for work!

On February 28 am, areas of the Barents and Kara had CH4 concentrations as high as 2229 PPBv.

https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

Apocalypse4Real

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AIRS/Giovanni 359 mb and IASI 600 mb CH4 update
« Reply #28 on: March 03, 2013, 04:29:07 PM »

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #29 on: March 04, 2013, 02:47:45 PM »
I have updated the METOP 2 IASI CH4 imagery for March 1 & 2. The Google Earth images are updated through Feb 24th pm.

On Feb 28 we had readings above 2200 PPBv at 586 and 718 mb, and the other days have often been above 2100 PPBV in some areas of the Arctic.

https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #30 on: March 06, 2013, 03:23:14 PM »
I have updated the METOP 2 IASI CH4 imagery from February 27 for March 4, 2013. The Google Earth images are updated through February 28, 2013 pm, when CH4 readings were as high as 2110 PPBv at 586 mb.

The Norwegian, Greenland, Barents, Kara, and Laptev Seas were all producing methane or had high concentrations of methane over them. See below, and more imagery at:

https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #31 on: March 07, 2013, 03:26:22 PM »
I have updated the METOP 2 IASI CH4 images through March 5, 2013 pm.

See: https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

Aslo, I jumped ahead with the Google Earth images to show what the current concentrations are in the Arctic as of March 5, 2013 pm. One image (586 mb) is below, with many areas above 1950 PPBv.

ritter

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #32 on: March 07, 2013, 07:05:25 PM »
One image (586 mb) is below, with many areas above 1950 PPBv.

When do they, like the Australian Bureau of Meteorology did for weather forecasting, change the color scale to address the new range? I wonder how high it actually is.

johnm33

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #33 on: March 07, 2013, 11:18:44 PM »
Fwiw i'm slowly coming to the conclusion that much of the sub arctic ocean release of methane is caused by the overflow of base water from the arctic basins, principally the one beneath Beaufort. This body of water must[?] have warmed above a critical threshold perhaps even above 0deg and no longer serves to keep the fresher frozen water of the permafrost cold enough. This water flows out at the siberian end of the losmonov ridge and mounts the continental shelf somewhere west of there, being prevented from heading directly to Fram by the sheer pressure of Atlantic waters entering the arctic, it then wends its way slowly to just below Bear island below Svalbard and falls off the shelf where the persistent anomoly shows warm on.
The array across Fram shows very little base outflow and then rarely, and yet this basin water must be constantly replenished, and thus overflowing if it does not go through Fram or to the south of Bear island then where?

johnm33

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #34 on: March 07, 2013, 11:30:46 PM »

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #35 on: March 08, 2013, 03:49:01 AM »

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #36 on: March 08, 2013, 04:26:54 AM »
A4R,

Thanks for maintaining your website.  It is saving me the time I used to spend going to Dr. Yurganov's data.

In looking at your recent CH4 maps, it would appear that at 585mb, the CH4 concentrations of the Kara Sea have increased significantly.  Isn't this rather unusual this time of year??
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werther

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #37 on: March 08, 2013, 02:50:36 PM »
Last year early in spring I was intrigued by a dot-pattern on the Laptev fastice.

It's back visible on MODIS, the 'Laptev Scintillation':


It has a different spread, I'll come back on that later.

I'm still puzzled what's the cause and 'fear' it may be caused by methane release. I've circled the main 'field', which has an area of env. 13000 km2.

ritter

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #38 on: March 08, 2013, 06:35:11 PM »
Ritter,

Check my website, it has the daily maximum PPBv records.

https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

Yes, thanks! My concern is "Bright Yellow is approx 1950+ PPBv". What does the "+" entail?

Shared Humanity

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #39 on: March 08, 2013, 10:42:28 PM »
Werther...

I read an article earlier that last years exploration of the Laptev Sea found methane plumes, some a kilometer or more in diameter. I cannot find the article but this popped up in my search.

http://uk.groups.yahoo.com/group/arctic-methane/message/112

Shared Humanity

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #40 on: March 08, 2013, 10:46:12 PM »

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #41 on: March 08, 2013, 11:00:39 PM »
Werther...

I read an article earlier that last years exploration of the Laptev Sea found methane plumes, some a kilometer or more in diameter. I cannot find the article but this popped up in my search.

http://uk.groups.yahoo.com/group/arctic-methane/message/112

It would be interesting to know whether any of the regional navies with submarines, or submersibles, have been mapping any of these plumes at their source on the sea bed.  Of course, this would be held as classified information and not released to the general public.
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werther

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #42 on: March 08, 2013, 11:33:27 PM »
Here's the Laptev scintillation modified through CAD on MODIS 13072012. The area was located about 100 km to the SW compared to this year.

Any difference could be triggered by the complicated geomorphology in this part of the Laptev Sea. I'll post some info on this later.
For now, I suggest these punctures form during the refreeze, probably November, invisible in the dark. I doubt that they would be continuous methane vents during the whole winter season.
Specific subsurface temps in the rift/graben paleosoils pattern could be decisive which part is active.
I checked lots of Arctic shelve regions for comparable features during '12, but found only some near Ostrov Khrestovskyi, 850 km to the East.
I've been searching closely on MODIS during August to trap vents in that area, but the 250 m resolution is probably too low to cooperate. I wonder if I coul lure our friend A-Team into this quest. His work encouraged me to enhance some of these images by the simplest measures possible, then rescaling them in CAD. Maybe he could get more visual info here?

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #43 on: March 09, 2013, 12:06:52 AM »
It would be interesting to know whether any of the regional navies with submarines, or submersibles, have been mapping any of these plumes at their source on the sea bed.  Of course, this would be held as classified information and not released to the general public.
Hi OLN,

Nuclear sharks don't swim in 80 m of continental shallows, not even Akulas. ;)

A blue-force SSN would only go inshore for special ops or intel-gathering, and then only with access to deep water egress. It's just not worth risking the boat. I'm afraid CH4 doesn't count.

For more discussion, read this topic at Skeptical Science:
New observations find underwater Arctic Shelf is perforated and venting methane, posted on 6 March 2010 by John Cook

Also see Igor Semiletov's classic 1999 paper: (w. free PDF download)
Semiletov, I. P. "Aquatic sources and sinks of CO2 and CH4 in the polar regions." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 56.2 (1999): 286-306.
Cheers!
Lodger

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #44 on: March 09, 2013, 04:50:52 AM »
Ritter,

In regard to the CH4 scale - anything above 1950 PPBv in any area is the "+". The current color range is set as high as 2950 PPBv, but readings are not nearly that high. Every 12 hours the highest reading is included on the image on the website.

For example, on the March 6 am image, the highest reading is 2181 PPBv. Thus anything above 1950 and below the 2181 will be bright yellow.


ritter

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #45 on: March 11, 2013, 06:43:04 PM »
Ritter,

In regard to the CH4 scale - anything above 1950 PPBv in any area is the "+". The current color range is set as high as 2950 PPBv, but readings are not nearly that high. Every 12 hours the highest reading is included on the image on the website.

For example, on the March 6 am image, the highest reading is 2181 PPBv. Thus anything above 1950 and below the 2181 will be bright yellow.
Thanks for your explanation!

AbruptSLR

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #46 on: March 13, 2013, 12:30:57 AM »
I thought that I would post some GCM model projections for nature methane hydrate emissions for SRES A1B until 2100: In a two-part study by scientists from the US Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and Los Alamos National Laboratory utilized a scenario based on a combination of two computer models of how climate change could impact the millions of tons of methane frozen in sediment beneath the Arctic Ocean.  In the initial phase of the project they found that buried deposits of methane hydrates, will decompose as the global temperature increases and the oceans warm. In the second phase, the scientists found that methane would then seep into the Arctic Ocean and gradually overwhelm the marine environment’s ability to break down the gas. Supplies of oxygen, nutrients, and trace metals required by methane-eating microbes would dwindle year-by-year as more methane enters the water. After three decades of methane release, much of the methane may bubble to the surface, where it has the potential to accelerate climate change.  The author's (Elliot et al. 2011) conclusions include:
"The vast Arctic shelf supports massive hydrate reservoirs, and many are close to the edge of stability [Archer, 2007].  Since these deposits are often located in the depth range of recently ventilated North Atlantic water masses, relatively small increases in temperature due to climate change may result in dissociation [Lamarque, 2008].  In the present study, methane flow from warming clathrates is calculated by porous-media simulation [Reagan and Moridis, 2008]."
The first image indicates the projected seafloor warming by 2100 using SRES A1B used in the first part of this study.  The second image shows representive output for the second phase of the study showing calculated hydrate released seawater methane concentrations, and saturation ratios, around the world.  Panel (b) of the second image shows that the methane saturation ratios of the Siberian Continental Shelf will dominate the Arctic's flux of sea-air methane emissions by 2100.  Based on measurements of methane emissions from Black Sea into the atmosphere, as measured by Schmale et al. (2005), for a methane saturation ratio of 1.43, the sea-air methane flux can be conservatively approximated as: 0.6 nmol m-2 s-1.  Taking the average methane saturation ratio for the East Siberian Continental Shelf (with an area of about 2 x 1012 m2) to be 1.43 from 2020 to 2100 (a period of approximately 2.6×109 sec), and given that one mole of methane equals 16 grams, this indicates that from 2020 to 2100 the East Siberian Continental Shelf  would cumulatively emit approximately 3 petagrams of CO2 equivalent, and it is estimated that the other sea-air methane emissions from the rest of the world (see the second image) would approximately equal this value for an estimated annual worldwide flux in 2100 of approximately 6 billion tonnes/year of CO2 equivalent [or as a carbon equivalent of: 1.2 GtC/yr].
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #47 on: March 13, 2013, 04:31:49 PM »
Well, looking at the ESAS.jpg image, you don't need to be a rocket scientist (and I'm not) to observe that elevated concentrations of methane occur along the coasts and wherever the seas are relatively shallow in stark contrast to the deep water found in the center of CAB and other deep trenches.

Question. Does methane have the same blanketing effect in water that it has in the atmosphere? Does supersaturated water retain heat more readily?

And if the answer to this question is yes, (I hope it isn't) could releases of methane in the shallow seas result in regional runaway situations where methane releases accelerate the warming of the seas which then, in turn, trigger more methane releases?

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #48 on: March 13, 2013, 11:43:15 PM »
Shared Humanity,

I have not read anything that would suggest that methane in sea water increases temperature. It usually dissolves in water. However, high saturation can lead to release into the atmospere, thus concerns for warming of oceans in areas of methane hydrates that may cause them to melt and have the methane release into the atmosphere where it is a contributor to warming.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #49 on: March 14, 2013, 12:00:47 AM »
I have updated the METOP 2 IASI CH4 imagery from March 5-12. Almost each 12 hour report has recorded concentration levels about 2100 PPBv, in some parts of the imagery.

There has been a significant amount of release activity, in the Norwegian, Barents and Kara Seas. As fracturing has occurred in the Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi Seas, there aer spikes of methane as that trapped under the ice leaks through.

In the last few days, areas with thawing also reveal higher levels of methane for short periods of time.

Finally, Antarctica has a cloud of higher concentration of methane (above 1890 PPBv) that has been spreading over a larger areas.

I have attached three Google Earth overlays to give an idea of dispersion and concentration of CH4 during the last few days. These represent only one mb level of methane within a 12 hour period of concentration. The whole series will be added to my website by tomorrow.

https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

First image: March 8 0-12 hr 718 mb
Second image: March 12 0-12 hr 718 mb
Third image: March 12 12-24 hr 742 mb