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Shared Humanity

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #50 on: July 26, 2015, 03:15:11 AM »
My problem with this entire discussion is that it is being treated as a simple business location decision. Yes, the typical business has an investment horizon of 10 to perhaps 30 years, depending on the type of investment. Societies, on the other hand, make investments in regions with horizons that go far beyond 30 years and the business that chooses to build, say an office tower for $370 per square foot, does this because the value of that investment is dependent on the economic environment in which it is being located and the return on that investment.

We talk about how a business can adjust their investment decision easily within a 20 year horizon and therefor the problem is not as big as it would seem and I would argue that this short investment horizon is actually the fundamental problem that we are facing.

Miami, all of Dade County, is experiencing a surge of new construction. I have no doubt the investments look and are sound from a purely short term business perspective.

« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 01:42:45 PM by Shared Humanity »

sidd

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #51 on: July 26, 2015, 05:54:57 AM »

oren

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #52 on: July 26, 2015, 10:00:33 AM »
If there was a generally accepted cutoff date to Miami, economic dismantling might be an ordered process with no major harm done. However, I believe real life doesn't behave that way. People go on in a Business As Usual manner, until some major disaster strikes or some other OSM (Oh Shit! Moment) comes along. Then everyone wakes up at once, and property price crashes.
What are the total residential and commercial mortgages outstanding in the Miami area? I see no reason to believe that they will not be outstanding until the OSM. Very few people heed long-term warnings, especially after they hear them for a long time and nothing happens. So when general realization hits, when there's no denying, all those mortgages become valueless foreclosures, and the banks and investors are screwed. Naturally, Uncle Sam steps in to bail out everyone, screwing taxpayers nationally.
Of course, there's all the leaking infrastructure left behind, if Uncle Sam tries to do an orderly dismantling of all those gas stations and whatever other stuff, it will cost way more.
Will this cripple the US economy? Probably not, as it's a small percentage of the nation's wealth and/or expenditure. But will it be a painless orderly process? Most certainly not.

crandles

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #53 on: July 26, 2015, 01:31:29 PM »
Very few people heed long-term warnings, especially after they hear them for a long time and nothing happens. So when general realization hits, when there's no denying, all those mortgages become valueless foreclosures, and the banks and investors are screwed. Naturally, Uncle Sam steps in to bail out everyone, screwing taxpayers nationally.
Of course, there's all the leaking infrastructure left behind, if Uncle Sam tries to do an orderly dismantling of all those gas stations and whatever other stuff, it will cost way more.
Will this cripple the US economy? Probably not, as it's a small percentage of the nation's wealth and/or expenditure. But will it be a painless orderly process? Most certainly not.

Few people heed long term warnings - ok probably true, but what about the mortgage companies? I would expect them to be level headed and not agree to lend on 25 year terms if they expect the place to be inundated within 20 years. In US people can walk away from mortgaged property but this isn't the case in most places.

I don't see gas stations as much of a problem. The owner will pump out all the gas possible before abandoning the place. Perhaps some legislation requiring a rinse out of tanks with proper disposal of such water before such a place is abandoned. Would there be any need to remove underground tanks? Dismantling buildings could be a fairly major task but hardly crippling, is it worth it for less ugly views from new coastline? Shipwrecks are often good for fish but maybe there are a lot of poisonous stuff in abandoned buildings?

Quote
Will this cripple the US economy? Probably not, as it's a small percentage of the nation's wealth and/or expenditure.

To extent necessary, it is work to be got on with keeping employment high even if it doesn't create assets; ok so a little less wealth creation from fewer people doing that gets spread a little thinner.

However, US has small ratio of coastline to total area, but what about rest of the world? Do you think rest of the world will be happily buying iphone23 etc while this is happening? It is collapse of international demand that will cripple US ability to import goods and that will shake up the economy. I agree that that won't be a painless orderly process.




Shared Humanity

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #54 on: July 26, 2015, 01:49:35 PM »


Few people heed long term warnings - ok probably true, but what about the mortgage companies? I would expect them to be level headed and not agree to lend on 25 year terms if they expect the place to be inundated within 20 years.


I guess I don't have confidence in the level headed nature of the mortgage banking industry. Its track record over the last, say, 10 years would suggest that level headedness is not one of its strong suits.The only way the banking industry quits writing mortgages is when the new home owner is unable to get insurance. I do have much more confidence in the insurance industry and this will happen but the political pressure in and by states like Florida and Virginia will be intense and I have no doubt that governments will step in to protect the golden goose. This is already happening.

Finally, a suspension of mortgage writing does not solve the problem of wealth destruction, however, as those stuck with real estate that cannot be sold are going to get hurt bad. What will happen, and this should be watched closely, is that the real estate market will, hopefully, become increasingly a rental market.

Now multiply this process across multiple regions of the country and imagine what the broader impact on the economy will be?
« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 02:01:46 PM by Shared Humanity »

Vergent

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #55 on: July 26, 2015, 02:33:38 PM »
Shared Humanity,  crandles,

You can actually see the process on Google Earth; Galviston before Ike, after and 6 years later:





Verg

Shared Humanity

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #56 on: July 26, 2015, 02:59:37 PM »
Why am I dismissive of the argument that it is simply a business location decision and that market responses will prevent any significant impact on the economy? This is not an accounting problem. It has nothing to do with depreciation of assets on the books of businesses and the logical recommendations that finance departments provide decision makers at Acme Incorporated.

The economy is simply not as resilient to external shocks as everyone seems to think. Anyone who has been paying attention in the past decade has to realize this. The entire world economy was on the very precipice of complete financial meltdown as a result of a housing bubble. Only an unprecedented effort by all of the major economies to flood the financial system with liquidity prevented this from happening. And this flood of liquidity has not resolved the problem. The world economy is awash with liquidity and millions of U.S. home owners are stuck in homes they can't afford and can't afford to sell. Capital investment by business has still not fully recovered and they are using their mountains of cash buying back stock and acquiring existing assets. Banks are struggling to loan money to businesses despite historically low interest rates.

I have been reading for several years that these ridiculously low interest rates are going to cause skyrocketing inflation. Why is this not happening? The real threat to the world economy is highly destructive deflation. We are still on the precipice of that financial meltdown. We have only stepped back from the edge. The world economy is still buried under a mountain of debt and facing a deleveraging event that dwarfs anything we have ever seen. Deleveraging always results in demand destruction.  Individuals with underwater mortgages, students with unpayable loans... even governments will be unable to climb out from underneath the debt. (See Greece and a rapidly growing number of municipalities that are declaring bankruptcy) And every one in the market economy, (banks, investors etc.) is inextricably linked to this fragile system.

Now, replace the words "housing bubble" above and have that trigger be the wholesale destruction of accumulated wealth caused by SLR (Only one of the impacts of climate change that will cause this by the way as a 3C warmer world by the end of the century will render cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas virtually unlivable.) and it becomes clear that flooding the world economy with liquidity will simply not prevent a complete breakdown of the financial markets. The housing bubble will look laughably easy in comparison as the real assets still exist and can be scooped up by companies who have ready access to very cheap loans. In the new scenario, the assets don't exist, and if they do they will be the worthless skylines that crandles suggests may be the result. I think this result is actually quite likely as there is simply no profit from the wholesale dismantling of cities.

Anyone who places their faith in the rational actions of the marketplace is no different than someone who places their faith in God. They are simply worshiping at different altars and neither God nor the markets will save us from our fate.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 04:31:24 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #57 on: July 26, 2015, 04:17:40 PM »
We are all stuck in a system where the sum total of rational decisions (the marketplace is inherently rational) are delivering increasingly irrational results, on a global scale (AGW) and on a regional scale (the explosion of new real estate development in Dade County). Key Biscayne has had a total of over a half billion dollars of new construction in 2014 alone. (Make sure to Google the location of Key Biscayne and let me know what you think.)

It takes a great deal of self deception to maintain the illusion of rationality. The North Carolina legislature made it illegal for state agencies to consider any projection of SLR that was different than the historical average. No agency could develop policy that was based on an accelerating rate of SLR. The law that they passed was explicit about the average SLR to be used. It requires agencies to only consider a rate of SLR that matches the average SLR of the past century. Why did they do this? Do they actually believe this? Certainly not....they did this because they are terrified of dramatic reductions in the value of coastal property and the effect it would have on the economy of the state.

I received my economics degree from the University of Chicago. It is no accident that the university has a virtual stranglehold on the Nobel prize for economics. It is simply the finest economics program in the world, populated by elite economists. The university is a strange beast. It has a  history of pushing the envelope in every discipline. As a result, its focus is highly theoretical. It has no engineering program but a thriving physical science community. It does have a business program (I also received my MBA there.) but it is also highly theoretical and is responsible for  most of the breakthroughs with regards to finance and an enormous influence on the behavior of the modern marketplace. For example, most of the theory that underpins complex derivatives that dominate the financial markets have there origins here.

This is the same approach used in economics. Most economists are technocrats. They build elaborate macroeconomic models to explain the behavior of the economy. They treat economics as a science. Economics is a science but it is a social science, a study of human behavior. The university dives deeply into the nature of money, its source of value which requires faith on the part of those who use it, and the manner in which policy can influence human behavior.  Human behavior is a funny thing and people can behave quite unpredictably. Much of the practical research at the university works to lessen this unpredictability. Using monetary policy to target an annual 2% inflation rate for example which incidentally was the result of breakthroughs made by Milton Friedman. Effective policy by the technocrats works to prevent the herd from rushing to the exits. Never the less, the herd still frequently rushes to those exits when fear and a loss of faith overwhelms them. Trust me, the increasingly damaging effects of climate change will get that herd moving very fast and the stampede will be unstoppable. That stampede will result in the wholesale destruction of financial wealth across the planet.

Now, tell me again how I wasn't paying attention in class?

« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 04:27:27 PM by Shared Humanity »

plinius

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #58 on: July 26, 2015, 04:58:19 PM »
If you got to the point and stayed on topic, one could have sensible discussions, but not like that.

JimD

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #59 on: July 26, 2015, 05:09:24 PM »
Quote
...P.S.:@Neven, I am not sure why you address me, but I suggest you to look who suddenly stopped arguing properly. Though it's quite amusing actually thinks he can tell an economist how to distinguish between capital and income. Dunning Kruger is my favourite...

If memory serves SH is a PhD candidate in economics.  Finishing up his dissertation?

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

OldLeatherneck

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #60 on: July 26, 2015, 06:34:24 PM »
Quote
...P.S.:@Neven, I am not sure why you address me, but I suggest you to look who suddenly stopped arguing properly. Though it's quite amusing actually thinks he can tell an economist how to distinguish between capital and income. Dunning Kruger is my favourite...

If memory serves SH is a PhD candidate in economics.  Finishing up his dissertation?

JimD,

I also share your respect for SH's valuable contributions to this forum and his insights into the complex world of economics.  It's not often that a practitioner in one of the social sciences readily admits the laws of their sciences are human constructs and not the immutable laws of physics.

I''m concerned that the belief in the "old laws" and the strive to maintain BAU, with infinite exponential growth will delay meaningful efforts to prepare for the known consequences of AGW/CC.  There may well be a very rapid transition from the state complacency to a state of pandemonium and mass panic.  I hope that I could be wrong on that.

I have more thoughts on preparing for eventual seal level rises, however, I'll wait until I've gathered all of the  pertinent data to support my thoughts.
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

crandles

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #61 on: July 26, 2015, 07:01:56 PM »
The North Carolina legislature made it illegal for state agencies to consider any projection of SLR that was different than the historical average. No agency could develop policy that was based on an accelerating rate of SLR. The law that they passed was explicit about the average SLR to be used. It requires agencies to only consider a rate of SLR that matches the average SLR of the past century. Why did they do this? Do they actually believe this? Certainly not....they did this because they are terrified of dramatic reductions in the value of coastal property and the effect it would have on the economy of the state.

Some laws are just so wrong that it should be the civic duty of every civil servant to disobey such laws.

Wonder how that would get on as a defence.

plinius

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #62 on: July 26, 2015, 09:15:20 PM »
I suppose you all know this story:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Pi_Bill

Just this time they passed it.

wili

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #63 on: July 26, 2015, 09:36:55 PM »
Nicely put, SH.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Shared Humanity

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #64 on: July 26, 2015, 10:33:48 PM »
I suppose you all know this story:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Pi_Bill

Just this time they passed it.

Wow! Amazing!

Shared Humanity

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #65 on: July 26, 2015, 11:02:52 PM »
If you got to the point and stayed on topic, one could have sensible discussions, but not like that.

I realize we have distinctly different viewpoints and we are kind of talking past each other. Because of this, it may seem I am off point. The simple point that I am arguing for is that the global economy, the financial markets are very vulnerable to shocks and that it has never seen the kinds of shocks that climate change will deliver. The damage to the financial markets are not so much caused by the immediate physical damage but rather by human behavior, the manner in which we react to these shocks, a fear based reaction.

Is fear really something that we should worry about?

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors are very careful to avoid leaks about their deliberations and   the approaching quarterly economic reports. And when those reports are released they are very measured in the language they use so as not to spook the markets. When there are concerns about the markets response to world events, they will often provide assurances about the monetary policy even when quarterly reports are not scheduled. They understand the power of fear.

A persistent myth about George Bush is that, after 9/11, he told Americans to go out and shop. He did not.

http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/thepresidentandcabinet/a/did-bush-say-go-shopping-after-911.htm

He did, however, speak on numerous occasions about the need for Americans to go about living their lives. On September 20, 2001, in an effort to calm Americans, he gave a speech where he said, "I ask your continued participation and confidence in the American economy." Bush actually addressed the American public many times in the months immediately following 9/11. In every case, he sought to calm fears. On November 8, 2011 he said, "This great nation will never be intimidated. People are going about their daily lives, working and shopping and playing, worshiping at churches and synagogues and mosques, going to movies and to baseball games."

His administration clearly understood that fear would cause far more damage to the American economy, that this damage would dwarf the damage in New York.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #66 on: July 26, 2015, 11:17:16 PM »
Jester, are you familiar with ecomodernism and it's relationship to AGW/CC?  Ecomodernism is a new concept to me, and I think I am beginning to understand it.  A recent blog post by Sou at HotWhopper disusses it with respect to AGW/CC and denialism. 

The basic premise seems to be that ecomodernists are anthropocentric, and still believe that humans are superior to nature.  Therefore, via the application of modern science and technology, we can manipulate the planetary environment to maximize the utilization of natural resources, ignore nature and biodiversity, and by so doing, benefit modern civilization. 

Rex Tillerson, the retired CEO of Exxon accepts the reality of anthropogenic global warming. He has described it as an engineering problem with engineering solutions.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/27/us-exxon-climate-idUSBRE85Q1C820120627

Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson said on Wednesday that efforts to address climate change should focus on engineering methods to adapt to shifting weather patterns and rising sea levels rather than trying to eliminate use of fossil fuels.

Tillerson said humans have long adapted to change, and governments should create policies to cope with the Earth's rising temperatures.

"Changes to weather patterns that move crop production areas around -- we'll adapt to that. It's an engineering problem and it has engineering solutions," Tillerson said in a presentation to the Council on Foreign Relations.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #67 on: July 27, 2015, 03:05:01 AM »
Quote
...P.S.:@Neven, I am not sure why you address me, but I suggest you to look who suddenly stopped arguing properly. Though it's quite amusing actually thinks he can tell an economist how to distinguish between capital and income. Dunning Kruger is my favourite...

If memory serves SH is a PhD candidate in economics.  Finishing up his dissertation?

Definitely not.....working on a master degree in Adult Ed and my research project is focused on "Learning Organizations". Not organizational learning where a knowledge deficit is identified and training is provided. Looking at organizations from a systems perspective and determining how organizations learn how to learn.

I seriously do not have what it takes to get a PhD.

anotheramethyst

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #68 on: July 27, 2015, 10:57:56 AM »
for ideas about future sea level rise impacting urban areas, we can look at hurricane katrina as a case study.  (new orleans, 2005)

1.  the population of new orleans knew well in advance that most of their city is below sea level (and also below river level as you had to climb up levees to get to the mississippi river, which runs through the middle of the city, through uptown and downtown).  everyone paid attention to hurricane season and any hurricane in the gulf of mexico prompted lengthy discussions among the population about projected height of storm surge, wind speed, and of course, every hurricane any person in the room had lived to see.  you actually couldnt get away from it if you tried.  all of a sudden, literally everybody is an expert.  point is, EVERYONE in the city knew it was only a matter of time before something like katrina happened.  however, louisiana is a poor state and infrastructure spending and economic planning did nothing to cushion the blow. 
2.  the storm hit.  city dwellers without cars were trapped.  rescue and evacuation efforts failed, largely due to an inability to comprehend the scale of the problem, an issue reiterated by mayor ray nagin.  i don't remember his exact words but something to the effect of "they sent a hundred school buses, we need a thousand."  he elaborated further, at every level of response, they met a failure to appreciate the scale of the problem.
the oil refineries of the gulf of mexico were shut down, causing gas prices to double, reaching over $5 a gallon.
3.  new orleans citizens were then moved to camps all over the country, the largest was the astrodome in houston.  there were problems with safety and security, and more importantly, in many areas, the refugees couldn't find jobs in the new cities and took months to assimilate to their new surroundings, while slowly new orleans began allowing people back in to some sectors, at first just to visit but eventually to return.  yes therecwas a construction boom, but many contractors trucked in labor instead of hiring the uneployed new orleans citizens, so there was a housing shortage and a job shortage at the same time, and a large increase in gang violence.  fema began providing trailers to the neediest people first, and about the time they had half of the trailors occupied reports came in of illness in the trailers.  turns out they were built in a hurry and shoddily, and had toxic levels of formaldehyde in them.
4.  new orleans survived and so did the rest of the country.  but this was just one storm and it took more than a year to recover.  it had multiple impacts to the economy, but far worse impacts on human health and safety.  now, if we consider the main problems faced by the disaster were largely a problem of scale, and that's just ONE city, and we are facing a world where these types of disasters will become commonplace....

icefest

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #69 on: July 27, 2015, 11:36:48 AM »
I don't see gas stations as much of a problem. The owner will pump out all the gas possible before abandoning the place. Perhaps some legislation requiring a rinse out of tanks with proper disposal of such water before such a place is abandoned. Would there be any need to remove underground tanks? Dismantling buildings could be a fairly major task but hardly crippling, is it worth it for less ugly views from new coastline? Shipwrecks are often good for fish but maybe there are a lot of poisonous stuff in abandoned buildings?
You are assuming an ordered retreat, I doubt that the rise will be as steady as you like. The underlying trend will be nice and steady but the effects will be felt in waves, as  1:10 year storm surges crest the previous high point, each time obliterating structures further inland.
Open other end.

LRC1962

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #70 on: July 27, 2015, 12:25:51 PM »
I don't see gas stations as much of a problem. The owner will pump out all the gas possible before abandoning the place. Perhaps some legislation requiring a rinse out of tanks with proper disposal of such water before such a place is abandoned. Would there be any need to remove underground tanks? Dismantling buildings could be a fairly major task but hardly crippling, is it worth it for less ugly views from new coastline? Shipwrecks are often good for fish but maybe there are a lot of poisonous stuff in abandoned buildings?
You are assuming an ordered retreat, I doubt that the rise will be as steady as you like. The underlying trend will be nice and steady but the effects will be felt in waves, as  1:10 year storm surges crest the previous high point, each time obliterating structures further inland.
I agree. Case in point. Hurricane Sandy. Places damaged in NYC still not rebuilt. Gas stations did not have a chance to empty tanks. SLR will not come in like waves up a beach, it will overrun one line of defence then then next line then the next. In each case it will be done very swiftly.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
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crandles

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #71 on: July 27, 2015, 01:03:09 PM »
Quote
The problems at the pump were many: Power outages across the East left stations without backup power generators unable to operate to dispense the supplies that they had on hand; power issues and flooding at major refineries crimped supply from getting to stations at all. Even further complicating matters, the Colonial Pipeline system, the region's main conduit for the transport of fuel supplies, couldn't pump from its Linden, N.J., fueling station.
http://www.cnbc.com/2013/10/29/the-next-superstorm-sandy-how-it-would-affect-gas-stations.html
That is just the first seemingly relevant link found - perhaps searching more would find different stories?

This seem to indicate to me the gas didn't get flooded out (why would it) - it was the lack of power and working pumps causing lots of delays. The gas won't be left there even if the land is to be abandoned, it would be worth sending in a tanker with sufficient pumping equipment at low tide to pump it out.

crandles

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #72 on: July 27, 2015, 01:25:35 PM »
Perhaps you are envisaging us attempting to protect land that is below sea level even at low tide? I guess that will happen in some areas (eg some New Orleans areas but tide range is low there so this is not typical and won't be common) but I would suggest not in most. If the bedrock is porous like lots of Florida it wouldn't be possible.


OldLeatherneck

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #73 on: July 31, 2015, 04:07:31 AM »
6 Meter SLR, Risk Assessment for SanDiego, California



I picked San Diego for a risk assessment such as this for two reasons. The first being that unlike Miami, San Diego will not have to be entirely abandoned and with proper planning and preparations i can still remain a functioning seaport.  The second reason is that I am intimately familiar with San Diego, having lived several different times, been there numerous times for both business and family reasons, in the past 50 years.  I've also spent a great deal of time at all of the naval facilities.

I chose the above map because it was a free download and not cluttered with tourist attractions or too many streets and highways.  My identifying markers for critical infrastructure are to the best of my recollection and I believe close enough for this discussion.  The brown shaded areas are approximate and indicate areas that should not not be threatened by SLR in any scenario for an extended (centuries) period of time.   I'll start by providing brief thoughts on the impact and possible courses of action for  each identified risk area.

International Airport

At an elevation of only 17 feet (~5 meters), this airport will need to be relocated long before SLR reaches 6 meters.  It is not at all feasible to move higher toward the more elevated terrain.  It's already a difficult landing due to the surrounding mountainous terrain.  Most likely place would be at Mira Mesa, about 15 miles NE of the above map.  This location is currently a Marine Corps Air Station. 

Coronado Bay Bridge

When this bridge was built in 1969, the intention was to have it high enough above the water for most naval vessels to pass under.  It was never intended for aircraft carriers to pass under it.  At some point of SLR, naval warships might not be able to sail north under the  bridge for the normal route around North Island.  Then North exit/entrance to the bridge on the San Diego is elevated well above any anticipated increases in sea levels.  However, as memory serve me, the southern exit/entrance on North Island arrive not far above current sea levels.  Will require some re-engineering.

Headquarters US Navy Pacific Fleet

The 32nd Street Naval Base is one of the largest in the world, surpassed only by Norfolk, VA in the number of personnel assigned there and the number of ships home-ported there.  Many of the logistical support and training facilities can be moved nearby to higher ground.  Obviously, the piers and quay walls need to be elevated.  I believe I heard and Admiral say that in Norfolk they will be building double-decker piers to prepare for eventual SLR.  Also, once the Coronado Bay Bridge become an obstacle to ship traffic, a shipping channel will need to be cut through that narrow spit of land going south from the village of Coronado.  Also, if San Diego is going to remain a seaport, a breakwater needs to be constructed along the southern shore of North island all the way down to the southern perimeter of the bay.

North Island Naval Air Station

At 26 feet (~8 meters), much of North  Island will be threatened as sea levels rise. It critical for the Navy to at least protect the berthing facilities for aircraft carriers and at least landing spaces for helicopters and short take-off and landing facilities for certain fixed wing aircraft.  Is this possible?  Yes.  I have no  idea what the costs of this are and how much acreage will eventually given back to the sea.  Those are decisions far above my pay-grade.

Coronado

This village of just over 25K population sits at an elevation of 16 feet (5 meters).  In addition to some off-base housing for the  Navy, there are some residential neighborhoods, some high-end restaurants, boutique hotels and the famed Hotel Del Coronado.  Unfortunately, the high-end properties and tourist facilities are at the low end of the village.  The powers that  be must perform a cost/benefit analysis to determine how much of the village to save.  Keep in mind that to protect the  harbor, the western shore must have a sea wall.

Point Loma

Before I discuss the Navy's submarine facilities, I have to describe the topography of Point Loma. Someday, Point Loma may become and island although at a minimum there may be a narrow isthmus to the  high elevation areas to the east.  Western edge of Point Loma is a steep cliff reaching down to the ocean. Much less beach area than my drawing depicts.  At the far western edge of Point Loma's peak is Cabrillo National Monument.  Other than that, most of the highest elevation areas are consumed by US Naval facilities.  The southern slopes toward the submarine base on the west and resort and commercial areas towards the east, while steep are sloped enough to have allowed development.  Most of the residential properties on this slope will probably be safe from anticipated sea level rises.  However, the commercial and much of the resort areas will be threatened by SLRs of far less than 6 meters.

US Navy Submarine Piers

I've only spent 6 weeks living at this facility, however, I was going to school on the top of Point Loma.  My only experience with the subsurface navy was teaching a class of technicians, that was held much farther away from the docking facilities.  Since there is a relatively rapid rise fro this facility with a bedrock base, it is feasible to raise the docking facilities for the  submarine fleet.

Ocean Beach

This residential/resort area is on the northwestern fringe of Point Loma going north to the canal which leads to Mission Bay.  For California purposes, this has always been one of the  lower rent residential areas near a beach.  I can remember renting a cottage here in 1966/67 for only $95/month.  I would estimate that at least 40% of this area will be lost to anticipated sea level rises.  Fortunately for the richer folks, they seem to have built on the higher elevations.

Mission Bay

Mission Bay is a low lying beach and resort area, that includes Sea World, that include many man-made peninsulas for either resorts or recreational activities.  The northern portion of Mission Bay is heavily populated with commercial enterprises and condominiums.  I would estimate that most of this area going eastward to Interstate 5 will have to be abandoned.  There is no critical infrastructure here that would warrant protection from either the US Government, the State of California, the City of San Diego or influential mega-moguls.  However, and this is a guess, I believe that Interstate-5 is still safe, with a much better view of the water.

Cruise Piers

If they are going to create a safe harbor for the US Navy, they might as well provide docking facilities for the cruise ships and the fishing fleet.  Much of the tuna caught off of the coast of Ecuador is caught by shipping vessels home ported in San Diego.

Other Threatened Areas

Adjacent to the International Airport are a number of Aerospace manufacturing companies, some of whom make the launch vehicles for NASA missions.  Then there is the Convention Center which is very vulnerable to SLR, possibly well before 6 meter.  Also, I have not mentioned the numerous high-rise hotels in low lying areas and the many docking facilities for luxury yachts and other pleasure craft.

Safe Facilities in the San Diego Area

Scripps Institute
UC San  Diego
San Diego State University
Balboa Park
San Diego Zoo

A Nostalgic Moment in San Diego

I mentioned earlier that at times I visited San Diego for family reasons, however failed to mention that my mom and dad retired in a very wonderful retirement village just east of San Diego in the mid-80s.  Therefore, on those rare years that I wasn't there on business, I made frequent trips to visit my aging parents.  My last trip was just 4 years ago, soon before my mom passed on.  Since my mom's dimentia, at the age of 92, had reached the point where meaningful conversation was no longer possible, I decided to spend my last few hours before my flight, to give myself a farewell  tour to my most memorable places in San Diego.  Among them were, Seaport Village, Shelter Island, Harbor Island, Balboa Park, Old Town, Point Loma and Ocean Beach.  It's not often this aging Marine sheds a tear, yet my eyes were moistened more than once  that day.

When I think of that moment, I can't help but think of the 10s or 100s of thousands of San Diegans who have lived their entire lives there, building homes, building careers and raising families that will someday lose somethings that they will never be able to see or touch again.

And this is one of those fortunate cities that can be salvaged, what about the  trauma and heartbreak for those who leave their cities that will never be inhabited again.





"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

TerryM

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #74 on: July 31, 2015, 10:35:21 AM »
OLN


What of the loss of scenic beauties when Black Beach sinks beneath the waves [size=78%]


Terry[/size]

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« Reply #75 on: July 31, 2015, 11:25:27 AM »
OLN,
Your tears remind me of this mother and scientist from Miami:
https://youtu.be/BEhx-Q43Tfo?t=11m14s

And she assumes 3m of SLR is centuries away...