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Author Topic: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating  (Read 5662 times)

Apocalypse4Real

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NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: May 26, 2015, 11:45:57 PM »
Besides the NOAA ESRL Global CO2 average breaking through 400 ppm for the first time, the decadal global CO2 increase was above 21 ppm for a 10 year period for the first time in the record.

There is more at http://megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/



anotheramethyst

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2015, 09:53:21 AM »
thanks for the link!!! scary stuff :(

jai mitchell

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2015, 07:00:52 PM »
we are starting to experience carbon cycle feedback effects that will increase significantly over the next decade.  I expect that the atmospheric fraction of carbon dioxide will continue to increase from 55% today to 60% by 2020.  This additional 5% of annual emissions no longer being sequestered by the earth will rapidly increase atmospheric emissions even as we desperately attempt to halt the fossil-fueled destruction of our biosphere.
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2016, 03:14:02 AM »
NOAA/ESRL Global CO2 for October, 2016:

Hit a new monthly high of 402.31 ppm, which was 3.71 ppm higher than October, 2015. This yr/yr increase of 3.71 ppm is the highest for any month in the NOAA/ESRL record.

The ten year change from October 2006 to 2016 was 22.47 ppm, the highest of any ten year period monthly comparison.

Perhaps some of this rate of increase is El Nino related, but these may be less connected than previously.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2016, 03:48:41 AM »
Global annual CO2 for 2016 on track for a yr/yr increase above 3.7 ppm, smashing through the annual growth rate of 3 ppm.

See: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/12/global-co2-october-2016-hits-record.html

ritter

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2016, 04:51:09 AM »
More really bad news. Thanks? ;)

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2017, 03:44:49 PM »
There is an association between El Nino occurrences and increases in yr/yr monthly CO2 emissions rates. The most recent El Nino demonstrates that relationship.

What's more troubling is when one observes a CO2 spike with no associated El Nino. The chart illustrates the relationship between ENSO 3.4 (El Nino La Nina and monthly NOAA/ESRL CO2 increases. There is more at:

http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/

Pmt111500

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2017, 04:14:18 PM »
There is an association between El Nino occurrences and increases in yr/yr monthly CO2 emissions rates. The most recent El Nino demonstrates that relationship.

What's more troubling is when one observes a CO2 spike with no associated El Nino. The chart illustrates the relationship between ENSO 3.4 (El Nino La Nina and monthly NOAA/ESRL CO2 increases. There is more at:

http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/

That image looks familiar. Thanks for doing this, though this is rather unsettling.
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #8 on: March 12, 2017, 09:52:47 PM »
December 2016, Global CO2 concentration another new monthly record 3.27 ppm higher than December, 2015.

Additionally, the 2016 Global CO2 annual mean is 3.47 ppm higher than the annual mean for 2015.

Also, December 2016 global CO2 a 22.52 ppm increase over December 2006, another new record.

See: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/

« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 09:59:29 PM by Apocalypse4Real »

oren

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2017, 05:26:39 AM »
There is an association between El Nino occurrences and increases in yr/yr monthly CO2 emissions rates. The most recent El Nino demonstrates that relationship.

What's more troubling is when one observes a CO2 spike with no associated El Nino. The chart illustrates the relationship between ENSO 3.4 (El Nino La Nina and monthly NOAA/ESRL CO2 increases. There is more at:

http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/
Eyeballing this char seems to indicate based on past correlation of spikes that our current spike might not be over nor at its peak. I hope tbat's not the case.

Pmt111500

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2017, 05:44:53 AM »
There is an association between El Nino occurrences and increases in yr/yr monthly CO2 emissions rates. The most recent El Nino demonstrates that relationship.

What's more troubling is when one observes a CO2 spike with no associated El Nino. The chart illustrates the relationship between ENSO 3.4 (El Nino La Nina and monthly NOAA/ESRL CO2 increases. There is more at:

http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/
Eyeballing this char seems to indicate based on past correlation of spikes that our current spike might not be over nor at its peak. I hope tbat's not the case.
Mauna Loa record would say january global values of change since last year are still large but that february would be a bit lower. Not that the Mauna Loa and Globe are exactly synchronous and of the same magnitude always. It's quite a good proxy for globe but deviations do occur, if I remember correctly. A4R, would it be possible to have the global record extended to the start of Mauna Loa record with some degree of accuracy? Proxy-based extensions of existing records are anyway done on many locations wrt paleoclimate, so this might be applied here too?

Oops, the last of the graphs would state this is already being done.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2017, 06:05:14 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Shared Humanity

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2017, 02:28:11 PM »
There is an association between El Nino occurrences and increases in yr/yr monthly CO2 emissions rates. The most recent El Nino demonstrates that relationship.

What's more troubling is when one observes a CO2 spike with no associated El Nino. The chart illustrates the relationship between ENSO 3.4 (El Nino La Nina and monthly NOAA/ESRL CO2 increases. There is more at:

http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/
Eyeballing this char seems to indicate based on past correlation of spikes that our current spike might not be over nor at its peak. I hope tbat's not the case.

That may be the case but I expect the spike is, in fact, a spike and the increases will settle back down to a more or less linear pattern. This, unfortunately, will allow deniers to talk about a hiatus in CO2 growth for the next decade.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2017, 09:12:42 PM »
Global monthly mean CO2 for February, 2017 405.75 ppm up 2.74 ppm above February 2016, 12.75 ppm over Feb, 2012, and 22.43 ppm over Feb 2007. All trends still intact for increases, despite El Nino effect which is working out of the data.

See: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/


Apocalypse4Real

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #13 on: May 21, 2017, 09:15:41 PM »
Global monthly mean CO2 for February, 2017 at 405.75 ppm. Fastest and sortest time for a 5 ppm increase in NOAA ESRL record - at 22 months. On track for potential increase of 10 ppm in four years or less.

See: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #14 on: May 21, 2017, 09:17:48 PM »
Global annual mean actual growth of CO2 at 3.44 ppm for 2016 vs 2015. Highest of any year. See http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/


pileus

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2017, 08:40:06 PM »
Good read in The NY Times regarding C02 acceleration.  It also highlights how important investment in monitoring and research is especially critical given the rapid rate increase of the last two years, which will certainly be an uphill battle in the US given current political dynamics.

Carbon in Atmosphere Is Rising, Even as Emissions Stabilize

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/26/climate/carbon-in-atmosphere-is-rising-even-as-emissions-stabilize.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share


rboyd

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2017, 10:38:23 PM »
From the NYT article: $20 million/year needed to get a much better read on US emissions. $400 billion for the F35 flying pig, but we can't find $20MM/yr to monitor emissions. Incredible, same issue with the lack of buoys in the Arctic.

I find the increase in the CO2e numbers that NOAA tracks even more worrying, going up between 3-4ppm per year. With cuts to coal consumption and other emission controls the balancing aerosols won't be increasing, so could have a greater impact going forward. 489ppm in 2016, probably 493 by the end of this year. The Paris agreement and the headline emission numbers only address CO2, not CH4 or N20.

THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (AGGI)

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2018, 09:41:55 PM »
NOAA ESRL Global CO2 November 2017 hit a new monthly high of 405.58 ppm. This is 2.06 ppm higher than 2006, over 12 ppm higher than November 2012 and 22 ppm higher than 2007. The trend of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations continues as human emissions have not  declined.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #18 on: April 16, 2018, 12:49:20 AM »
Global average CO2 concentration above 407.5 ppm in January 2018, an increase of 2.48 ppm since January, 2017.

The five year change is 12.68 ppm and the decadal change is a new high of 22.56 ppm difference form January, 2008.

Also currently have increased CO2 by 46 percent since pre-industrial if the base is 278 ppm.

We are on track to punch through 410 global average in March/April 2019.

See https://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/ for more.

Shared Humanity

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #19 on: June 02, 2018, 03:38:05 PM »
Nice general analysis of greenhouse gas emissions. No new ground here but a good graph rich read.

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions

Shared Humanity

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #20 on: June 06, 2018, 06:36:12 PM »
Atmospheric CO2 continues its climb. (See Chart) Meanwhile, despite all of the happy talk on this blog about renewables and our switch to low emission natural gas, CO2 emissions continue to climb after the Paris agreement.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-co2-emissions-rise-after-paris-climate-agreement-signed/

Ken Feldman

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2018, 09:38:37 PM »
Atmospheric CO2 continues its climb. (See Chart) Meanwhile, despite all of the happy talk on this blog about renewables and our switch to low emission natural gas, CO2 emissions continue to climb after the Paris agreement.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-co2-emissions-rise-after-paris-climate-agreement-signed/

You seem to have missed some of the key takeaways from the article you linked:

Quote
Rising Chinese demand for electricity in 2017—which boosted power plants’ appetite for coal and sent emissions from Asia’s largest economy soaring—was the result of a brutally hot summer, said Dan Klein, head of global coal research at S&P Global Platts Analytics.

“I think [if it weren’t for] the increase in overall demand, the biggest story would have been the increase in renewables,” Klein said, noting Chinese wind and solar output were up 21 percent and 38 percent, respectively, year over year. “If you have a slowdown in power demand growth, especially if the weather is more normal, these trends will have a much bigger impact in 2018.”

Indeed, the world’s emissions story might have been significantly worse if not for renewables’ strong year. Renewables boasted the highest increase of any energy source, with the United States and China accounting for half of the sector’s growth, IEA reported.

And to answer your snark about posters who focus on solutions to the problem rather than wallowing in despair, I'll post an inspirational quote from Hellen Keller:

Quote
Optimism is the faith that leads to achievement. Nothing can be done without hope and confidence.

dnem

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2018, 01:00:16 PM »
"If you have a slowdown in power demand growth, especially if the weather is more normal, these trends will have a much bigger impact in 2018.”

Really Ken? The positive feedback of increased temperatures leading to increased electricity demand is not going away. It's going to get worse. Temperatures are not going to return to "normal".  That is a fantasy.  Renewables will meet some of this increasing demand.  Will they meet enough of it?

Sleepy

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2018, 01:30:00 PM »
Atmospheric CO2 continues its climb. (See Chart) Meanwhile, despite all of the happy talk on this blog about renewables and our switch to low emission natural gas, CO2 emissions continue to climb after the Paris agreement.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-co2-emissions-rise-after-paris-climate-agreement-signed/
A couple of not so good, from the renewable thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,256.msg157221.html#msg157221
Add the US tariffs (sidd's post down thread) and China's bombshell below that one.
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Ned W

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2018, 03:02:13 PM »
A couple of notes that are relevant to this thread:

First, the annual CO2 increase is closely linked to the ENSO cycle.  The annual increase in CO2 was so large during 2015-2016 because of the El Nino.  It's subsequently dropped back below the trend line. 

Second, when comparing increases in CO2 today to those in the past (e.g., "largest ever") it's more meaningful (from a climate perspective) to convert them to forcings (Wm-2) first.  For example, a 1 ppm increase in 1960 (315 to 316 ppmv) represented a forcing of 0.017 Wm-2, while the same 1 ppm increase today (407 to 408 ppmv) is a forcing of 0.013 Wm-2.

So while (as noted in this thread) the rate of increase in CO2 set new records during the 2016 El Nino, the rate of increase in CO2 forcing was higher during the 1998 El Nino.

Third, note that this thread title refers to the 3rd derivative of CO2 --

1st derivative = increase in CO2 per unit time
2nd derivative = acceleration in CO2
3rd derivative = acceleration in rate of increase of CO2

On the following graph, the three lines represent the 12-month increase in forcing from CO2 (i.e., the first derivative) -- the blue line is monthly, while the yellow and red lines are smoothed with a 10-year and 30-year LOESS smoothing function, respectively.



Let's focus on the red line, since it shows the long-term trend.  If that line were at zero, there would be no change in CO2 over time.  When the red line is above zero (i.e., always) it means that CO2 is increasing.

If the red line were basically flat (not increasing or decreasing), it would mean that that the rate of increase in CO2 forcing was constant.  Over the 30-year LOESS timescale, the forcing from CO2 would be basically increasing at a constant rate.

Since the red line has a positive slope (especially pre-1980) it means that the rate of increase in forcing is itself increasing (i.e., there is acceleration in CO2 forcing).  That's the second derivative.

What the thread title is referring to -- acceleration in the rate of change of CO2, i.e., the third derivative -- occurs when the slope of the red line changes.  In general, over the entire 60-year history of these data, there is a negative acceleration in the rate of change in CO2 forcing.  In other words, CO2 forcing was rising faster in the 1960s-1970s, and is rising more slowly now.

Aside from that overall "deceleration" (negative acceleration) in the rate of CO2 forcing increase from the 1960s to the 2010s, there are some interesting features of this graph, e.g. the big dip in the yellow line in the early 1990s (from Mt Pinatubo cooling CO2 feedbacks?)

The yellow line also shows a bit of flattening in the rate of CO2 forcing increase during the 2000s, prior to the 2016 El Nino.  This is probably the same ENSO-driven pattern that denialists liked to claim was a "pause" in global warming -- just an artifact of faster-than normal warming around 1998-2002, followed by slower-than-normal from 2005-2013. 

But the red line shows that there's very little long-term change in the 3rd derivative after 1980 -- the red line has a pretty uniform slope over that 40-year period. 

So ... IMHO "the CO2 increase is increasing", but contrary to the thread title, "the CO2 increase is not accelerating" or if anything, over the long term it's had negative acceleration.

It would be correct to say that CO2 concentration is accelerating, or CO2 forcing is accelerating (the latter would probably be my preferred way to frame this).

gerontocrat

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #25 on: June 08, 2018, 04:34:40 PM »
You seem to have missed some of the key takeaways from the article you linked:

Quote
Rising Chinese demand for electricity in 2017—which boosted power plants’ appetite for coal and sent emissions from Asia’s largest economy soaring—was the result of a brutally hot summer, said Dan Klein, head of global coal research at S&P Global Platts Analytics.

“I think [if it weren’t for] the increase in overall demand, the biggest story would have been the increase in renewables,” Klein said, noting Chinese wind and solar output were up 21 percent and 38 percent, respectively, year over year. “If you have a slowdown in power demand growth, especially if the weather is more normal, these trends will have a much bigger impact in 2018.”

Indeed, the world’s emissions story might have been significantly worse if not for renewables’ strong year. Renewables boasted the highest increase of any energy source, with the United States and China accounting for half of the sector’s growth, IEA reported.


Being optimistic does not mean one should ignore the data.

Expansion in solar power will increase but at a slower rate.
Emissions will increase in 2018, and at some later year will decrease.
But 1.5 degrees is toast, 2 degrees is looking dodgy.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/06/06/china-just-dealt-massive-blow-to-solar-industry.aspx

China Just Dealt a Massive Blow to the Solar Industry
No company will be spared from the reduction in China's solar incentives.


Quote
That bullish streak came to an end on Monday when China took steps to slow its solar industry. Feed-in tariffs that provide set prices for electric power sent to the grid will be cut, and distributed generation (DG) projects will be capped until further notice. Early estimates are that solar installations will fall to around 35 GW in 2018, with a lot of that already installed. The impact of the policy changes will be widespread, and no company will be spared.

How China is undercutting its own solar industry
China's solar cuts were widespread and will affect most of the downstream industry. China's National Development and Reform Commission said there would be no more planned ground-mounted solar projects in 2018 and subsidies for future ground-mounted projects would be forbidden.

The feed-in tariff for solar projects was also reduced by 0.05 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a cut of 6.7% to 9% depending on the region, which will reduce the payback of solar project development. Those changes are effective June 1, 2018, so there was no notice of the cut.

Distributed solar farms were also capped at 10 GW for 2018, a level that may have already been exceeded.

Distributed solar farms were also capped at 10 GW for 2018, a level that may have already been exceeded.

Add it up and China's solar installations are going to plunge in the second half of 2018. Analysts from Roth Capital are guessing that 35 GW of installations will be built in 2018, which seems about right given the cuts. But we know demand is going to fall given China's reduced quotas and solar subsidies.

The impact on the global solar market
Solar panels are priced almost entirely based on supply and demand, and for the past year, demand has been high. According the GTM Research, solar panel prices were $0.38 per watt in the first quarter of 2017 but jumped to $0.48 per watt in the fourth quarter of 2017. Developers in the U.S. and China were rushing to complete projects before tariffs hit the U.S. and feed-in tariffs were changed in China, so they were willing to pay up for solar panels.

Beginning this summer, we'll likely see the supply-demand trend reverse. Demand is going to fall and prices could go with it. Roth Capital estimates the solar market will be oversupplied by 34 GW of panels.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Daniel B.

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #26 on: June 08, 2018, 04:56:12 PM »
"If you have a slowdown in power demand growth, especially if the weather is more normal, these trends will have a much bigger impact in 2018.”

Really Ken? The positive feedback of increased temperatures leading to increased electricity demand is not going away. It's going to get worse. Temperatures are not going to return to "normal".  That is a fantasy.  Renewables will meet some of this increasing demand.  Will they meet enough of it?

What about the negative feedback of increased temperatures leading to decreased heating demand?

dnem

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #27 on: June 08, 2018, 05:32:17 PM »
True, but the comment specifically mentioned summer heat, which leads to an increase in electricity demand.  Reduced winter cold generally leads to less natural gas and heating oil consumption.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2018, 12:51:14 PM by dnem »

Sleepy

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #28 on: June 09, 2018, 07:43:04 AM »
Warmer winters is one of Swedens most successful mitigation attempts.  ::)
http://www.energimyndigheten.se/statistik/bostader-och-lokaler/
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #29 on: July 03, 2018, 11:32:30 PM »
March 2018 NOAA ESRL Global CO2 at 408.75 ppm, up 2.71 ppm over 2017, 12.68 ppm over 2013 and 22.85 ppm over March 2008. See: https://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2018/06/march-global-mean-co2-is-40875-ppm-up.html

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« Reply #30 on: July 08, 2018, 11:48:10 PM »
April 2018 Global CO2 at 408.96 ppm, up 2.63 ppm from April, 2017. In the last five years the increase is 12.44 ppm, and since April, 2008, up 22.67 ppm.

Between February to April 2019, we will pass 410 ppm, only about 48 months to increase 10 ppm. We are accelerating the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, faster than at any time in human history.

See more at: https://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/