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Avalonian

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #350 on: January 14, 2018, 09:26:37 PM »
That is rather a wacky diagram. I mean, they don't seem to have paid much attention at all to predictions for aridity or extreme weather development. Spain is in the clear, apparently, as well as Australia. Central Asian states are no worse off than China or Russia, despite relying on rapidly-diminishing glacial run-off from the Tian Shan. Etc., etc. etc...

Plus, I agree completely about the assessment of the social side of the analysis. Apparently they considered 'food supplies', which seems to me to be the single most critical aspect (aside from drinking water), but what knock-on effects will the desertification of California have, for example..? The whole thing looks like a simple publicity exercise, to me.

But, exploring the idea, which countries would be best able to adapt to a generic extreme warming scenario? Excluding ones that turn to desert, get drowned by sea level rise, or are too hot for survival, I suspect you'd be looking for ones without too much technological development, that grow most of their own food already, and in which society is rather local. Some of the least-connected cultures on Earth are probably going to be the most self-reliant - say, the Andaman Islands, or indigenous tribes in Brazil, Bolivia or Ecuador. Isolated oceanic islands shouldn't see the extremes of heat as much as large land masses; those around the southern end of South America, for example, or the Falklands, might remain habitable, or even improve. Look for low-population places where the local climate is currently cool, and which don't rely heavily on imports, and you've got a good chance of successful adaptation, I reckon.

rboyd

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #351 on: January 14, 2018, 10:19:58 PM »
If the Brazilian rainforest turns into savanna, wont be too good for the indigenous. Also, I think that Bolivia is highly dependent on glacial run off.

Am doing my PhD thesis on societal resilience in the face of climate change, so couldn't help jump on this simplistic index.

Avalonian

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #352 on: January 14, 2018, 10:35:26 PM »
If the Brazilian rainforest turns into savanna, wont be too good for the indigenous. Also, I think that Bolivia is highly dependent on glacial run off.

Am doing my PhD thesis on societal resilience in the face of climate change, so couldn't help jump on this simplistic index.

Excellent - good project!  What sort of cultures are you focusing on?

Indeed, for Brazil - but if any rainforest survives in the west, then maybe traditional cultures will survive with them. I know the cities of Bolivia are highly dependent on glaciers, but not so sure about most of the broadleaved forest areas in the Yungas region, for example... it's so hard to predict future rainfall patterns, but overall there should be an increase in precipitation globally, and mountain areas should still get the bulk of it. Parts of the Andes, I can't help thinking, should remain entirely habitable.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #353 on: January 14, 2018, 11:05:55 PM »
Am doing my PhD thesis on societal resilience in the face of climate change, so couldn't help jump on this simplistic index.

rboyd,

I am glad to read that you are working on a PhD thesis on societal resilience in the face of climate change.  And while I fully concur that the study that I linked to is simplistic, I believe that the interactions of our global socio-economic system and climate change are so complex as to make any/all analyzes, that I have seen, simplistic.  Thus, on this topic, the most important consideration is that each individual lean to take as much responsibility for their own decisions as practicable.

For example, if sea level increases three to sixteen feet this century, the associated freshwater hosing feedback mechanism will effectively invalidate all CMIP5 climate change projections, thus making any analysis that over relies on CMIP5 projections, invalid to one degree or other.  Thus each people needs keep updating any relating information/projections on a regular basis.

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

rboyd

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #354 on: January 15, 2018, 02:40:01 AM »
One of the hardest parts is dealing with the science when the official consensus is so far off base and the probability of non-linear behaviour so high. There are a lot of scenarios (which have alarmingly high real probabilities) that would render many countries' efforts irrelevant. The biggest question then becomes the political system's ability to deal with "planned retreat".

Really bad if its a whole country (Denmark, Holland, Mexico, Bangladesh?), but pretty bad if its even a part of a country (The deltas of Egypt, Vietnam and China, the South of Florida, the US Southeast, Burnaby British Columbia in Canada?). Getting people to accept that their assets are worthless, and getting others to help (rather than blame) them may overwhelm many political systems. Much may be squandered on trying to save the unsavable. The "Grapes of Wrath" rapidly comes to mind.

And yes, any thesis on the sublect will always be simplistic versus the actual complexity of the issue.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #355 on: January 15, 2018, 04:11:59 AM »
And yes, any thesis on the sublect will always be simplistic versus the actual complexity of the issue.

rboyd,

Every march to the sea begins with a single step.

Best of luck on your dissertation (or is yours really a thesis?).
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #356 on: January 30, 2018, 07:31:32 PM »
In my opinion, a collapse of the WAIS this century would likely accelerate schedule for the long overdue flipping of the Earth's magnetic poles.  So I hope people prepare accordingly:

Title: "Earth's Magnetic Poles Are Overdue For a Switch And We're Not Prepared"

https://www.sciencealert.com/earth-magnetic-poles-reversal-switch-overdue-turbulent

Extract: "Within the last 20 million years, Earth has fallen into the pattern of pole reversal every 200,000 to 300,000 years, and between successful swaps, the poles sometimes even attempt to reverse and then snap back into place.

About 40,000 years ago, the poles made one such unsuccessful attempt, and the last full swap was about 780,000 years ago, so we're a bit overdue for a pole reversal based on the established pattern.

The planet's magnetic field is already shifting, which could signify the poles are preparing to flip, and while we can't yet confirm that a reversal is on the near horizon, it is well within the realm of possibility.

To try to determine whether or not a flip is imminent, scientists have begun using satellite imagery and complex calculations to study the shifting of the magnetic field.

They've found that molten iron and nickel are draining energy from the dipole at the edge of the Earth's core, which is where the planet's magnetic field is generated.

They also found that the north magnetic pole is especially turbulent and unpredictable. If the magnetic blocks become strong enough to sufficiently weaken the dipole, the poles will officially switch.

Again, while it is not a certainty that the switch will happen soon, this activity at the Earth's core suggests that it is possible in the near future."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #357 on: February 07, 2018, 10:12:40 PM »
China is determined to take the lead in AI development by 2020:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-25/china-determined-to-match-western-competitors-in-ai/9357048

Extract: ""China has a declared ambition to equal the US in its AI capability by 2020 and to be number one in the world by 2030," said Professor Toby Walsh …

The Chinese Government's Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan, announced last year, aims to create a massive US$150 billion AI industry in China by 2030."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

sidd

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #358 on: February 08, 2018, 02:26:20 AM »
"In my opinion, a collapse of the WAIS this century would likely accelerate schedule for the long overdue flipping of the Earth's magnetic poles. "

Interesting. What leads you to this opinion ? Do tell.

sidd

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #359 on: February 08, 2018, 03:36:34 AM »
"In my opinion, a collapse of the WAIS this century would likely accelerate schedule for the long overdue flipping of the Earth's magnetic poles. "

Interesting. What leads you to this opinion ? Do tell.

sidd

Here is some background references:


1. Adam C. Maloof Galen P. Halverson Joseph L. Kirschvink Daniel P. Schrag Benjamin P. Weiss Paul F. Hoffman (2006), "Combined paleomagnetic, isotopic, and stratigraphic evidence for true polar wander from the Neoproterozoic Akademikerbreen Group, Svalbard, Norway",  GSA Bulletin, 118 (9-10): 1099-1124, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1130/B25892.1

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-abstract/118/9-10/1099/125331/combined-paleomagnetic-isotopic-and-stratigraphic?redirectedFrom=fulltext

Abstract: "We present new paleomagnetic data from three Middle Neoproterozoic carbonate units of East Svalbard, Norway. The paleomagnetic record is gleaned from 50 to 650 m of continuous, platformal carbonate sediment, is reproduced at three locations distributed over >100 km on a single craton, and scores a 5–6 (out of 7) on the Van der Voo (1990) reliability scale. Two >50° shifts in paleomagnetic direction are coincident with equally abrupt shifts in δ13C and transient changes in relative sea level. We explore four possible explanations for these coincidental changes: rapid plate tectonic rotation during depositional hiatus, magnetic excursions, nongeocentric axial-dipole fields, and true polar wander. We conclude that the observations are explained most readily by rapid shifts in paleogeography associated with a pair of true polar wander events. Future work in sediments of equivalent age from other basins can test directly the true polar wander hypothesis because this type of event would affect every continent in a predictable manner, depending on the continent's changing position relative to Earth's spin axis."

2. J. R. Creveling, J. X. Mitrovica, N.-H. Chan, K. Latychev & I. Matsuyama (08 November 2012), "Mechanisms for oscillatory true polar wander", Nature, volume 491, pages 244–248,
doi:10.1038/nature11571

http://www.nature.com/articles/nature11571

Abstract: "Palaeomagnetic studies of Palaeoproterozoic to Cretaceous rocks propose a suite of large and relatively rapid (tens of degrees over 10 to 100 million years) excursions of the rotation pole relative to the surface geography, or true polar wander (TPW). These excursions may be linked in an oscillatory, approximately coaxial succession about the centre of the contemporaneous supercontinent. Within the framework of a standard rotational theory, in which a delayed viscous adjustment of the rotational bulge acts to stabilize the rotation axis, geodynamic models for oscillatory TPW generally appeal to consecutive, opposite loading phases of comparable magnitude. Here we extend a nonlinear rotational stability theory to incorporate the stabilizing effect of TPW-induced elastic stresses in the lithosphere. We demonstrate that convectively driven inertia perturbations acting on a nearly prolate, non-hydrostatic Earth with an effective elastic lithospheric thickness of about 10 kilometres yield oscillatory TPW paths consistent with palaeomagnetic inferences. This estimate of elastic thickness can be reduced, even to zero, if the rotation axis is stabilized by long-term excess ellipticity in the plane of the TPW. We speculate that these sources of stabilization, acting on TPW driven by a time-varying mantle flow field, provide a mechanism for linking the distinct, oscillatory TPW events of the past few billion years."

3. To learn how much the North Pole has shifted in the recent decades due to rapid ice mass loss, see Chen, J..L., C.R. Wilson, J.C. Ries, B.D. Tapley, Rapid ice melting drives Earth's pole to the east, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 40, 1-6, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50552, 2013; which can be found at the prime author's website at the University of Texas, where you can download a preprint (made available by the author):

http://www.csr.utexas.edu/personal/chen/publication.html

and here is a link directly to the preprint pdf:

ftp://ftp.csr.utexas.edu/pub/ggfc/papers/2013GL056164_preprint.pdf


« Last Edit: February 08, 2018, 04:18:10 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

sidd

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #360 on: February 08, 2018, 06:55:23 AM »
Do you mean magnetic pole or rotational pole ? both the papers you cite talk about the rotational pole.

sidd

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #361 on: February 08, 2018, 05:08:51 PM »
Do you mean magnetic pole or rotational pole ? both the papers you cite talk about the rotational pole.

sidd

sidd,

I will move this line of discussion to the 'Ice Apocalypse' thread (see the link below) in the Antarctic folder as this topic was meant to be just a word of warning here.  However, my general point is that a some portion of the changes in the magnetic pole can be associated with changes in the rotational pole (the attached image illustrates how fast this is currently changing), due to changes in the magma flow associated with ice mass redistribution.  Furthermore, my point is that due to the current exceptionally high rate of anthropogenic forcing and the bipolar seesaw mechanism that possible abrupt changes in ice mass loss can make faster changes in tectonic behavior than observed in the paleorecord.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2205.50.html

ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #362 on: February 12, 2018, 03:49:10 AM »
For those who are interested:

Title: "Yesterday, World Leaders Gathered at a Secretive Meeting to Decide the Fate of AI"

https://futurism.com/govern-fate-ai/

Extract: "Today, top individuals from around the world convened at the World Government Summit to discuss the agenda that should govern the next generation of governments. Yesterday, a select few of these leaders gathered secretive meeting to discuss the guidelines that nations should use as they help their people come to terms with no longer being the only sentient species on the planet.

Of course, this was just one of many topics of discussion. Attendees also discussed the most immediate ways they can implement AI to make our lives better, who should govern AI, and how to navigate the perilous roads ahead."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #363 on: February 12, 2018, 05:37:44 AM »
Regarding the future of AI: CBC Ideas program is running a very interesting series, taking an in-depth look at the future of work and artificial intelligence.
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/artificial-intelligence-robots-and-the-future-of-work-1.4286200

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #364 on: February 23, 2018, 07:12:16 PM »
I note that UN official are raising that climate change is coming much faster than the Paris Accord assumes, they are currently approaching the High Tech leaders to try to encourage a new form of 'Technocracy' that could better fight climate change:

Title: "Why Solving Climate Change Will Be Like Mobilizing for War"

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2015/10/why-only-a-technocratic-revolution-can-win-the-climate-change-war/410377/

Extract: "It’s clear that the market is unlikely to solve the problem of climate change on its own. If scientists are right, and there is no reason to think they aren’t, averting climate change will require such large-scale, rapid action, that no single energy technology, new or emerging, could be the solution. Neither could any single non-energy technology, such as video-conferencing as a substitute for travel, solve the problem on its own.

Assuming we do manage to significantly accelerate deployment without cancerous levels of corporatist corruption, if emissions targets still remain out of reach, some growth must be temporarily sacrificed. At the same time, investment across the portfolio of energy technologies will need to continue.

In other words, we are contemplating the sorts of austerities associated with wartime economies. For ordinary Americans, austerities might include an end to expansive suburban lifestyles and budget air travel, and an accelerated return to high-density urban living and train travel. For businesses, this might mean rethinking entire supply chains, as high-emissions sectors become unviable under new emissions regimes.

What Gates and others are advocating for is not so much a technological revolution as a technocratic one. One for which there is no successful peacetime precedent. Which is not to say, of course, that it cannot work. There is always a first time for every new level of complexity and scale in human cooperation. But it’s sobering to look back at the (partial) precedents we do have.

Like many technologists whose opinions have been shaped by Internet-era technologies, I’d like to see the institutions we are being asked to trust adopt some of the operating mechanisms I have grown to trust. Like many, including presumably Bill Gates, I hope the climate war will be fought with agile, open processes, networked organizational forms, and a great deal more autonomy for low-level actors than technocracies have historically been willing to cede.

I’d also like claims to professional authority on the part of frontline actors to be based on visible accomplishments rather than credentials. I hope the action (or inaction, rather) will not be driven by gridlocked committees inching towards ineffective and expensive compromises with excruciating slowness, after hundreds of thousands of Bangladeshis and Sub-Saharan Africans have already lost their lives or livelihoods.

But to base decisions on comparisons between imaginary more-perfect institutions that might exist, and flawed, but slowly evolving institutions that do exist, is a perfect example of the nirvana fallacy. The pragmatic path is to trust that the technocrats in charge will fight the necessary bureaucratic battles with sufficient skill and professionalism to actually win in time to make a difference.

Can this work? There’s a slim chance, but it’s probably the best chance we have. And even a small chance of preventing massive misery in parts of the world (and periods of the future) that did not cause the problem, is worth taking."

See also:

Title: "Nirvana fallacy"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy

Edit, also see:

B. H. Samset, M. Sand, C. J. Smith, S. E. Bauer, P. M. Forster, J. S. Fuglestvedt, S. Osprey & C.-F. Schleussner (24 January 2018), "Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076079

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076079/full

Abstract: "Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5–1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0–4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing."

Edit2, see also:

Title: "The Fourth Industrial Revolution can lead us to a zero-carbon future - if we act now"

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/how-we-can-direct-the-fourth-industrial-revolution-towards-a-zero-carbon-future/
« Last Edit: February 23, 2018, 07:21:54 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #365 on: February 28, 2018, 06:30:00 PM »
The synergy between AI and quantum computing will result in a virtuous feedback loop that will accelerate advancements in both fields in the coming decades:

Title: "AI Will Lead the Charge Developing Quantum Computers"

https://futurism.com/ai-developing-quantum-computers/

Extract: "Although quantum physics deals with the "physics of the small," measuring quantum systems is no small feat. To make things simple, researchers turned to artificial neural networks and machine learning."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #366 on: March 19, 2018, 03:45:54 AM »
The linked article provides interesting background on the history/nature of technocracy in China:

Title: "Kuora: Why do technocrats dominate China’s political elite? - While American politicians have law degrees?"

https://supchina.com/2018/03/05/kuora-why-do-technocrats-dominate-chinas-political-elite/

Extract: "I’m greatly oversimplifying here, but I believe that in a country like China, where the notion that a knowledge elite should run the show is deeply ingrained, technocracy was somehow a natural fit with the political culture. Mengzi (Mencius, the most famous of Confucius’s followers) once said, “Let those who labor with their heads rule those who labor with their hands.” But it goes back earlier than the 4th–3rd century B.C.E., when he lived: In China’s first well-attested historical dynasty, the Shang, a shamanic priesthood, whose power was built on oracular divination and communing with ancestor spirits, held power, and technology such as it was — bronze casting, scapulamancy, and plastromancy — was dominated by that priestly caste. In imperial times, from roughly 60 years into the Han (206 B.C.E. to C.E. 220) through the Qing’s collapse in the early 20th century, a class of scholar-officials, whose elite status was predicated on the “truths” contained in the Confucian canon and certified by passing a series of civil service exams, ruled China, with, of course, some not insignificant interruptions.

With the end of the exam system and the repudiation of Confucianism by the intelligentsia of the early 20th century, there was an effort to supplant the “truths” of the old order with new, scientific (perhaps more accurately, scientistic) truths. Part of this explains the embrace of the “scientific” theories of Marxist dialectical materialism that made Communism popular. Even the paroxysms of Mao’s Cultural Revolution — the spasmodic violence, the complete upheaval and turbulence — only attest to how deeply rooted this political privilege accorded to knowledge elites has been in the Chinese political culture.

Turning to the U.S., to me it seems equally natural that lawyers should dominate the political elite in a country built on rule of law, checks and balances (an independent judiciary, for instance), and a fundamentally adversarial concept of politics. It’s really been in the American DNA since the founding of the country. John Adams was, of course, a lawyer, and despite his dedication to the cause of independence, even defended the British soldiers after the Boston Massacre. James Madison wasn’t a lawyer, though he clearly had aspired to be one (but never gained admission to the bar). It’s hard for me to imagine how the U.S. could be any other way."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

CalamityCountdown

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #367 on: April 02, 2018, 01:24:57 AM »
I just noticed that NASA posted an update on their satellite sea level observations for the period ending 12/17/17.

After over a year of sideways and downward movement from late 2015 through early 2017, the most recent NASA report shows that over the past year an acceleration in sea level rise has become visible on the NASA graph, even with just a quick glance (then again, while the long term trend is consistently upward, the annual trend is so variable, that it's likely foolish on my part to suggest a change in trend based on the most recent periods of increase which have only been occurring for less than 12 months).

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

The 2/27/18 PNAS report that sea level rise was accelerating barely seemed to get any notice (of  course, how could it compete with a story about hush money paid to a porn star to keep quiet about her decade ago one-night stand with Trump)
http://www.pnas.org/content/115/9/2022
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11022018/sea-level-rise-accelerating-satellite-study-coastal-flood-risk-antarctica-oceans


How much does sea level have to rise before there is a crash in US and worldwide coastal real estate prices? The 3.2 mm per annual rise does not seem to be causing much fear. How much does the rate of increase have to accelerate before real estate buyers notice the threat? And how many people have to be displaced before serious action is taken to limit sea level rise?


AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #368 on: April 21, 2018, 01:11:29 PM »
Will blockchain technology deliver beneficial AI for the masses?

Title: "This Startup Is Dreaming of a Global Brain on Blockchain"

https://singularityhub.com/2018/02/11/this-startup-is-dreaming-of-a-global-brain-on-blockchain/#sm.0001g8x1b9kx4fi6u8p1gt35shyja

Extract: "Ben Goertzel, a leading AI researcher, thinks the key to steering us towards a future in which AI is the best thing to happen to humanity is to develop it in an open, democratic, distributed way using blockchain—which is why he’s developing SingularityNET.

SingularityNET is a decentralized platform for AI. Goertzel and his team aim to build a blockchain-based infrastructure to enable various kinds of AI algorithms—from image recognition to natural language processing—to flexibly interact with one another in real time. The system will also be a way to track which algorithms are being used and to compensate developers accordingly.

Instead of humans manually stringing together algorithms, as the system develops, they’ll be able to communicate data and coordinate processing with one another. In the system’s initial incarnation, a user who has a task to complete using AI, training a robot to dance, for example, would send that task to the system, which would then parcel it out to various algorithms specializing in the different skills required to complete the task. The developers whose algorithms are used to complete the task will be compensated by the system with the tokens the user spends to get the task completed."

See also:

https://singularitynet.io/

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #369 on: April 27, 2018, 06:42:58 PM »
Quantum computing is now cooking with ultracold gas condensates as discussed in the three linked references.  This represents a great leap forward in quantum computing technology:

Karsten Lange, et al. (27 Apr 2018), "Entanglement between two spatially separated atomic modes", Science, Vol. 360, Issue 6387, pp. 416-418, DOI: 10.1126/science.aao2035

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6387/416

Abstract: "Modern quantum technologies in the fields of quantum computing, quantum simulation, and quantum metrology require the creation and control of large ensembles of entangled particles. In ultracold ensembles of neutral atoms, nonclassical states have been generated with mutual entanglement among thousands of particles. The entanglement generation relies on the fundamental particle-exchange symmetry in ensembles of identical particles, which lacks the standard notion of entanglement between clearly definable subsystems. Here, we present the generation of entanglement between two spatially separated clouds by splitting an ensemble of ultracold identical particles prepared in a twin Fock state. Because the clouds can be addressed individually, our experiments open a path to exploit the available entangled states of indistinguishable particles for quantum information applications."

&

Philipp Kunkel, et al. (27 Apr 2018), "Spatially distributed multipartite entanglement enables EPR steering of atomic clouds", Science, Vol. 360, Issue 6387, pp. 413-416, DOI: 10.1126/science.aao2254

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6387/413

Abstract: "A key resource for distributed quantum-enhanced protocols is entanglement between spatially separated modes. However, the robust generation and detection of entanglement between spatially separated regions of an ultracold atomic system remain a challenge. We used spin mixing in a tightly confined Bose-Einstein condensate to generate an entangled state of indistinguishable particles in a single spatial mode. We show experimentally that this entanglement can be spatially distributed by self-similar expansion of the atomic cloud. We used spatially resolved spin read-out to reveal a particularly strong form of quantum correlations known as Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering between distinct parts of the expanded cloud. Based on the strength of EPR steering, we constructed a witness, which confirmed genuine 5-partite entanglement."

&

Matteo Fadel, et al. (27 Apr 2018), "Spatial entanglement patterns and Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen steering in Bose-Einstein condensates", Science, Vol. 360, Issue 6387, pp. 409-413, DOI: 10.1126/science.aao1850

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6387/409

Abstract: "Many-particle entanglement is a fundamental concept of quantum physics that still presents conceptual challenges. Although nonclassical states of atomic ensembles were used to enhance measurement precision in quantum metrology, the notion of entanglement in these systems was debated because the correlations among the indistinguishable atoms were witnessed by collective measurements only. Here, we use high-resolution imaging to directly measure the spin correlations between spatially separated parts of a spin-squeezed Bose-Einstein condensate. We observe entanglement that is strong enough for Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen steering: We can predict measurement outcomes for noncommuting observables in one spatial region on the basis of corresponding measurements in another region with an inferred uncertainty product below the Heisenberg uncertainty bound. This method could be exploited for entanglement-enhanced imaging of electromagnetic field distributions and quantum information tasks."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #370 on: May 04, 2018, 07:00:12 PM »
If this keeps up then some day in the next few decades we may well have fast rail service from Tokyo to London:

Title: "A Geopolitically Genius Plan to Modernize North Korea's Trains"

https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/05/inter-korean-summit-rail-project/559652/

Extract: "Of course, with anything concerning North Korea, grand hopes must be accompanied by maximal caution. North Korea is where the best-laid plans go to wither and die. A version of the inter-Korean railway plan has existed for a while; the two Koreas even had a test run for the rail link in May 2007, having two trains cross the demilitarized zone on two spots. Further development stalled, however, because of the overall deterioration of the relationship between the two nations.

Yet there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic this time around. For starters, both South and North Korea specifically want this project. It’s also consistent with what their neighboring countries want as well. China is raring to begin the One Belt One Road Initiative, a massive infrastructure project that would enhance the physical connection between Europe and Asia. The inter-Korean railway could serve as the eastern extension, creating the overland connection between South Korea and the prosperous Chinese cities across the Yellow Sea from the Korean Peninsula, including Beijing and Shanghai.

A stable inter-Korean railway may also motivate Japan to finally begin working on the Korea-Japan undersea tunnel, a project that had been under discussion since the 1980s. If built, it would be the longest undersea tunnel in the world, more than four times the length of the Channel Tunnel between France and the United Kingdom.  According to the South Korean government, the inter-Korean railway plan caught the attention of both the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Asian Development Bank—respectively led by China and Japan, with many other member nations—indicating international support for the inter-Korean railway plan."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #371 on: May 04, 2018, 07:46:26 PM »
The first linked op/ed piece states that capitalism is at fault for our unsustainable world, as these 'invisible hand' of capitalism is as stupid as the 'invisible hand' of evolution that created the behavior of lemmings.  The invisible hand of evolution not only created lemming behavior but also the potential for enlightened human behavior; however, the Buddha found that realizing the human potential for enlightenment requires following a 'middle path'.  Therefore, I provide the second linked article about how a 'new invisible hand' (based on updated evolutionary theories) can allow technocrats to nudge modern socio-economic systems from global capitalism to a more sustain socio-economic system by following a middle path between laisse faire and central planning:

Title: "The Climate Crisis? It’s Capitalism, Stupid"

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/20/opinion/climate-capitalism-crisis.html

Extract: "The real culprit of the climate crisis is not any particular form of consumption, production or regulation but rather the very way in which we globally produce, which is for profit rather than for sustainability. So long as this order is in place, the crisis will continue and, given its progressive nature, worsen. This is a hard fact to confront. But averting our eyes from a seemingly intractable problem does not make it any less a problem. It should be stated plainly: It’s capitalism that is at fault."

The claim here is not that unintelligent people do not do unintelligent things, but rather that the overwhelming unintelligence involved in keeping the engines of production roaring when they are making the planet increasingly uninhabitable cannot be pinned on specific people. It is the system as a whole that is at issue, and every time we pick out bumbling morons to lament or fresh-faced geniuses to praise is a missed opportunity to see plainly the necessity of structural change.

Put differently, the hope that we can empower intelligent people to positions where they can design the perfect set of regulations, or that we can rely on scientists to take the carbon out of the atmosphere and engineer sources of renewable energy, serves to cover over the simple fact that the work of saving the planet is political, not technical. We have a much better chance of making it past the 22nd century if environmental regulations are designed by a team of people with no formal education in a democratic socialist society than we do if they are made by a team of the most esteemed scientific luminaries in a capitalist society. The intelligence of the brightest people around is no match for the rampant stupidity of capitalism.

&
Title: "Why New Economics Needs a New Invisible Hand"

http://evonomics.com/the-new-invisible-hand-david-sloan-wilson/

Extract: "The New Invisible Hand suggests the existence of a middle path.

The old concept pretends that the pursuit of individual or corporate self-interest robustly benefits the common good, as if “led by an invisible hand” in the words of Adam Smith. This is also the essence of the term “laissez-faire”, which is French for “leave it alone”. Nobody believes that an economy can truly be a free for all—certainly not Adam Smith, who invoked his metaphor only three times in the entire corpus of his work. A fuller reading reveals that he was amply aware of the need to regulate economies. Nevertheless, those who have made the invisible hand their central metaphor regard laissez faire as by far the better path to take than its alternative—centralized planning.

I am not the first person to declare this notion of the invisible hand dead, but my grounds for doing so are somewhat novel. Evolutionary theory makes it crystal clear that the unregulated pursuit of self-interest is often toxic for the common good. This conclusion becomes especially strong when we conceptualize self-interest in relative rather than absolute terms, a distinction that separates much evolutionary thinking from much economic thinking. When we absorb the fact that “life is graded on a curve” as the evolutionary economist Robert Frank puts it, then we can see that nearly all cooperative efforts require time, energy, and risk on the part of the cooperative individuals that place them at a relative disadvantage compared to less cooperative individuals within the same group.

The same theory that delivers the death stroke to the old concept of the invisible hand also provides a strong foundation for the new one. The two elements of the invisible hand metaphor are: 1) A social system works well; 2) without its members having the welfare of the system in mind. Nature is replete with examples, such as eusocial insect colonies and multicellular organisms as societies of cells. The members of these societies work harmoniously for the common good without even having minds in the human sense of the word. In each case, the first element of the invisible hand metaphor is satisfied because the society is the primary unit of selection—colony-level selection in the case of eusocial insects and organism-level selection in the case of multicellular organisms. The second element is satisfied because higher-level selection winnowed a small set of lower-level behaviors that contribute to the common good from the much larger set of lower-level behaviors that would disrupt the common good. In short, higher-level selection is the invisible hand. When it doesn’t occur, then disruptive forms of selection among individuals within groups take over, such as cancers in multicellular organisms and varying forms of cheating behaviors in eusocial insect colonies.

One of the great discoveries of evolutionary science during the last few decades is that this theoretical framework, called multilevel selection theory, can be applied to the evolution of our own species–including our genetic evolution primarily at the scale of small groups, our cultural evolution at successively larger scales during the last 10,000 years, and the rapid changes swirling all around us today that we are trying to influence with our policy decisions.

The main take-home message is easy for anyone to understand. We must learn to function in two capacities: As designers of large-scale social systems and as participants in the social systems that we design. As participants, we don’t need to have the welfare of the whole system in mind, but as designers we do. There is no way around it. Anything short will result in social dysfunction.

This is a definitive refutation of laissez-faire as a perspective for formulating policy, but it is not an endorsement of centralized planning. Indeed, the main import of the New Invisible Hand is to suggest the existence of a middle path, a way to design social systems that is itself evolutionary and iterative, resulting in regulatory processes that look like laissez-faire, even though they never would have come into existence on their own.

In short, the middle path between laissez-faire and centralized planning has been discovered many times, as might be expected from a cultural evolutionary perspective—but that isn’t good enough. Each discovery originates as a cultural “mutation’, often by happenstance, and spreads on the basis of its success to a degree, but then remains confined within certain cultural boundaries and is largely unknown outside its borders—somewhat like the geographical distribution of a biological species. What’s needed is a way to transcend these cultural boundaries so that all of the examples can be related to each other and understood from a unified theoretical perspective provided by a combination of evolutionary theory and complex systems theory."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #372 on: May 10, 2018, 09:46:05 PM »
Globalization going to continue growing, no matter what anyone says, so it is good to think about ways to 'make it more egalitarian, fair and just', as discussed in the linked article:

Title: "Does globalization have to mean massive inequality? Maybe not — there’s a better way"

https://www.salon.com/2018/05/10/does-globalization-have-to-mean-massive-inequality-maybe-not-theres-a-better-way/

Extract: "Despite widespread backlash, globalization is unstoppable. Now we must make it more egalitarian, fair and just"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #373 on: May 12, 2018, 12:25:17 AM »
More evolutionary lessons for our rapidly changing socio-economic situation:

Title: "The Business World Needs Multilevel Selection (MLS) Theory" by David Sloan Wilson

https://evolution-institute.org/the-business-world-needs-multilevel-selection-theory/

Extract: "Multilevel Selection (MLS) Theory can create order out of this chaos. It was developed for the study of social behaviors in non-human species but it is equally relevant to the cultural design of human groups, including but not restricted to business corporations.  It is based on the following principles, which are so elementary that they are unlikely to be wrong.
1.   Evolution is based on relative fitness. It doesn’t matter how well one survives and reproduces in absolute terms; only in comparison to others in the vicinity. As the economist Robert Frank puts it in his book The Darwin Economy: Liberty, Competition, and the Common Good, life is graded on a curve.
2.   The social behaviors that maximize relative fitness within a group tend to undermine the welfare of the group. This is the opposite of the metaphor of the invisible hand.
3.   Social behaviors that are “for the good of the group” might be selectively disadvantageous within the group, but they can be highly advantageous in betweengroup competition.


MLS theory makes it crystal clear that unless competition is appropriately structured and refereed, it can do a lot more harm than good. To make matters more complex, the logic of MLS theory applies to all levels of a multi-tier hierarchy, including the tiers of a single hierarchically organized corporation. What’s good for a single employee can be bad for her unit. What’s good for her unit can be bad for other units, and so on, all the way up to what’s good for the corporation being bad for the global economy and environment.

The idea that competition among firms results in the best replacing the worst would be called “naïve group selection” by an evolutionary biologist—as if selection operates only at the level of firms. Evolutionary biologists went beyond naïve group selection decades ago and their progress can be a tremendous source of insight to the business world."

See also:

https://new.evolution-institute.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/tvol-biz-publication-1.pdf
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #374 on: May 14, 2018, 10:30:33 PM »
The linked reference provides discussion about the use of Robustness Metrics w.r.t. climate change:

C. McPhail, et al. (08 January 2018), "Robustness Metrics: How Are They Calculated, When Should They Be Used and Why Do They Give Different Results?", Earth's Future, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000649

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017EF000649

Abstract: "Robustness is being used increasingly for decision analysis in relation to deep uncertainty and many metrics have been proposed for its quantification. Recent studies have shown that the application of different robustness metrics can result in different rankings of decision alternatives, but there has been little discussion of what potential causes for this might be. To shed some light on this issue, we present a unifying framework for the calculation of robustness metrics, which assists with understanding how robustness metrics work, when they should be used, and why they sometimes disagree. The framework categorizes the suitability of metrics to a decision‐maker based on (1) the decision‐context (i.e., the suitability of using absolute performance or regret), (2) the decision‐maker's preferred level of risk aversion, and (3) the decision‐maker's preference toward maximizing performance, minimizing variance, or some higher‐order moment. This article also introduces a conceptual framework describing when relative robustness values of decision alternatives obtained using different metrics are likely to agree and disagree. This is used as a measure of how “stable” the ranking of decision alternatives is when determined using different robustness metrics. The framework is tested on three case studies, including water supply augmentation in Adelaide, Australia, the operation of a multipurpose regulated lake in Italy, and flood protection for a hypothetical river based on a reach of the river Rhine in the Netherlands. The proposed conceptual framework is confirmed by the case study results, providing insight into the reasons for disagreements between rankings obtained using different robustness metrics."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #375 on: May 18, 2018, 04:59:35 PM »
I hope that you are practicing your holistic thinking, because the future is coming faster than most people realize:

Title: "Quantum computing edges toward mainstream"

https://www.axios.com/quantum-computing-edges-toward-mainstream-dfd65971-1a41-4b83-a410-9f9c8fb965e6.html

Extract: "Quantum computing will enter the mainstream faster than most of us realize, a panel of experts told a San Francisco crowd earlier this week — with some important real-world applications emerging within five years.

"Within 5 years, we're going to see something that makes everyone look up and say, 'Wow, how is this possible?'" said Arvind Krishna, director of research at IBM, at a Tuesday event hosted by the Churchill Club."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson