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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2800 on: November 12, 2018, 08:10:57 PM »
What I should have said is “music to Tesla shareholders ear” instead of Elon.  It will put GM further behind the curve and give them less chance of being a survivor in the coming/ongoing cutback in global vehicle manufacturers ..... and of course, gives Tesla a better chance (not that they needed any more help).

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2801 on: November 12, 2018, 09:14:18 PM »
What I should have said is “music to Tesla shareholders ear” instead of Elon.  It will put GM further behind the curve and give them less chance of being a survivor in the coming/ongoing cutback in global vehicle manufacturers ..... and of course, gives Tesla a better chance (not that they needed any more help).

“ValueAnalyst” says Tesla wil be the only automaker to post a profit for 2019.  Will be interesting to see if this happens.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2802 on: November 12, 2018, 09:19:21 PM »
Exxon: quick, get someone onto Fox News to tell Trump to stop tweeting that Saudi Arabia should maintain oil output!

U.S. crude weakens after Trump calls on OPEC to keep output
Quote
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. crude prices turned negative as U.S. President Donald Trump said he hoped there would be no oil output reductions, after Saudi Arabia said OPEC was considering cutting supply next year, citing softening demand.

U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 fell 18 cents a barrel to trade at $60.01 a barrel by 2:24 p.m. EST (1724 GMT). If the decline holds, the contract CLc1 is on track for its eleventh consecutive daily loss, the most on record since trading on the contract began in 1983, according to Refinitiv data.

Following four sessions of losses, Brent crude futures LCOc1 crude was up 16 cents at $70.34 a barrel, paring gains after trading as high as $71.88.

“Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!” U.S. crude turned negative and extended losses after the tweet. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/u-s-crude-weakens-after-trump-calls-on-opec-to-keep-output-idUSKCN1NH02I
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2803 on: November 12, 2018, 10:48:18 PM »
Oil just did something it has NEVER done before.  EVER.  It dropped in price for the 11th STRAIGHT DAY.

And today’s drop was AFTER Saudi Arabia said they would cut back their production.

That isn’t that surprising to me.  I think that Saudi Arabia may be chasing their tail over the next DECADE from time-to-time.  In several months, new pipeline capacity in the Permian will come online and production will increase in the US (depending on oil price at that time).

Meanwhile..... renewables keep nibbling away at the fringes.  Russia could be in for tough times in a couple years.  I sure hope that doesn’t hurt corrupt little Vladi and put him out of office. 😱
« Last Edit: November 13, 2018, 01:49:23 PM by Buddy »
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Red

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2804 on: November 13, 2018, 11:52:55 AM »
While fracking has only just begun in this country, the Dutch are waving goodbye to years of riches from gas extraction.

Why? Because they can no longer stand the social and economic cost of hundreds of small earthquakes and thousands of properties damaged by the tremors gas extraction causes.

The Dutch were told extraction was safe and well regulated, until their houses began cracking and falling down. We report from northern Holland.

https://www.channel4.com/news/why-the-dutch-are-ditching-gas-extraction?utm_source=samizdat&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=free

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2805 on: November 13, 2018, 01:03:59 PM »
While fracking has only just begun in this country, the Dutch are waving goodbye to years of riches from gas extraction.

Why? Because they can no longer stand the social and economic cost of hundreds of small earthquakes and thousands of properties damaged by the tremors gas extraction causes.

The Dutch were told extraction was safe and well regulated, until their houses began cracking and falling down. We report from northern Holland.

https://www.channel4.com/news/why-the-dutch-are-ditching-gas-extraction?utm_source=samizdat&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=free
I think Channel4 (UK TV channel) has resurrected this story as fracking is starting on the UK and there have been a few minor earthquakes already (2 of which halted drilling).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2806 on: November 13, 2018, 04:14:04 PM »
OPEC to the Oil Market: We Told You So
The group of oil-producing nations warned the market that it was worried about the wrong thing.
Quote
For months, most oil-market watchers fretted about the impact that newly imposed U.S. sanctions on Iran would have on global supplies. Those concerns pushed the price of crude up to more than $85 a barrel, while many analysts anticipated that oil could soon reclaim the triple digits as supplies tightened further. President Trump and others called on OPEC to boost production so that oil prices didn't get out of hand.

OPEC, however, refused to budge because it believed that the market was worried about the wrong thing. Instead of an undersupply issue, OPEC thought the market had more oil than it needed, so it was concerned about another glut forming that could put downward pressure on prices. That's exactly what seems to be happening after the Trump administration gave waivers to key buyers of Iranian oil, allowing it to continue supplying them with crude. That shift has quickly deflated oil prices, which has at least one OPEC nation considering a production cut. ...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/12/opec-to-the-oil-market-we-told-you-so.aspx
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2807 on: November 13, 2018, 05:01:51 PM »
Another day ..... another down day for oil price.  Anyone trying to catch the “falling knife” of oil price is likely to end up in the ER (emergency room). 😱

I think copper and lumber have quite a ways to fall.  That will lead to falls in equities as well as time passes.   Oil .... it has “initial chart support” in the 54 - 55 ish range.  Just remember that fundamentals are the cause for the drop, so that short term  “support” for oil may end up being about as good as a weak bridge in an earthquake. 😱
« Last Edit: November 13, 2018, 05:42:26 PM by Buddy »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2808 on: November 13, 2018, 05:37:42 PM »
New Year, Same Story: Cost of Wind and Solar Fall Below Cost of Coal and Gas

Quote
It's that time of the year again: time for asset management company Lazard to release its annual Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) study. (We know, you've been waiting all year.) The numbers in the report offer economic insight into how energy choices were made in the previous year and how the energy landscape will likely change in the coming year.

The bottom line? The cost of coal-fired electricity per megawatt-hour hasn't budged a bit from 2017, while wind and solar costs per MWh are still falling. That spells bad news for an American coal revival, especially in places where the cost of building brand-new renewable installations is cheaper than the cost of operating existing coal and gas plants—a situation that Lazard says is happening with increasing frequency (PDF).



Although this is Lazard's 12th year quantifying the cost of energy, it's only the fourth year that it has released a separate report quantifying the cost of storage (PDF). Energy storage includes grid-scale lithium-ion batteries as well as vanadium and zinc flow batteries, lead-acid batteries, and advanced lead batteries.

Lazard breaks these down further by market: batteries selling storage wholesale have different revenue streams than batteries connected to utility-grade solar or commercial standalone batteries that are not controlled by a utility.

Here, Lazard says that lithium-ion batteries showed significant cost declines in the relevant markets throughout 2018. Meanwhile, "cost declines for flow batteries are less significant but still observable," Lazard writes. The asset management company unfortunately doesn't expect that to last: "Future declines in the cost of lithium-ion technologies are expected to be mitigated by rising cobalt and lithium carbonate prices as well as delayed battery availability due to high levels of factory utilization."

Lazard also found that shorter-duration batteries, which can discharge over about four hours, are the most cost-effective of any batteries. These batteries "improve the grid’s ability to respond to momentary or short duration fluctuations in electricity supply and demand." This has been confirmed by reports from real-world battery use in Australia, where the massive Tesla battery at the Hornsdale Wind Farm has been used to maintain grid frequency, rather than replacing more traditional forms of electricity generation.

The IEA's World Energy Outlook 2018
https://www.iea.org/weo2018/

Quote

IEA's World Energy Outlook 2018 Presentation: https://www.iea.org/media/presentations/WEO2018-Presentation.pdf

The International Energy Agency's newly released World Energy Outlook finds that oil demand for passenger vehicles is slated to peak in the mid-2020s due to more efficiency, biofuels, and electric vehicles. That's according to their "new policies" scenario, which models not only existing policies but also countries' announced plans and emissions targets.

But, but, but: That projected mid-2020s peak doesn't mean that overall global demand for crude oil is reaching an inflection point anytime soon. That's because other uses — petrochemicals, heavy freight, shipping and planes — remain robust.

Add it all up and the report sees global crude oil demand rising slightly to reach 106 million barrels per day in 2040 (it's roughly 100 mbd right now).

Why it matters: The findings underscore that despite heavy and justified attention to electric cars, passenger transport is just one part of the wider equation when it comes to oil.

Yes, but: The annual report also models a "sustainable development" scenario — a wholly upended global energy system where policy and investment trends are bent to be consistent with the goals of the Paris climate agreement. On the oil side, that means overall demand peaks in almost all nations by 2030. Per an IEA summary...
Quote
- "By 2040, cars that rely solely on gasoline and diesel are 40% more efficient than today; there are 930 million electric cars on the road (50% of the global car fleet); a quarter of buses are electric; and nearly 20% of fuels used by trucks are low or zero carbon."

- "There are also major changes in most other sectors and as a result, total oil demand in 2040 in this scenario is 25 mb/d lower than today."

What's next: Despite the forces trimming growth, the world still needs lots of oil and several sources are at risk, including Iran, which is seeing exports fall thanks to looming reimposition of U.S. sanctions. Per IEA...

Quote
- Global oil demand is on the cusp of the "historically significant" 100 mbd mark.
- While the market has enough supplies "for now," Iran's exports are slated to fall even more, Venezuela is deteriorating, and there's the "ever-present" threat of more Libyan disruption.
- "[W]e cannot be complacent and the market is clearly signalling its concerns that more supply might be needed."

In its report, the IEA said its main projection scenario through to 2040 foresees the U.S. accounting for nearly 75% and 40% of global oil and gas growth, respectively, over the next six years. Growth is expected to be driven primarily by shale fracking, which should lead U.S. shale oil supply to more than double, reaching 9.2 million barrels a day by the mid-2020s, the agency said.

If these approvals do not pick up sharply from today’s levels, US tight oil production would need to triple from today’s level to over 15 mb/d by 2025 to satisfy demand in the NPS. With a sufficiently large resource base, this could be possible. But it would require levels of capital investment that would far surpass the previous peaks in 2014.

Oil markets are entering a period of renewed uncertainty & volatility
Quote
- Natural gas is on the rise: China’s rapid demand growth is erasing talk of a ‘gas glut’
- Solar PV has the momentum while other key technologies & efficiency policies need a push
- Our assessment points to energy-related CO2 emissions reaching a historic high in 2018
Oil demand looks robust in the near term; if approvals of new conventional projects remain low, market stability would require continuous exceptional growth in US shale
Quote
“More than at any other point in recent history, fundamental changes to the development model of resource-rich countries look unavoidable,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director. “Following through with the announced reform initiatives is essential, as failure to take adequate action would compound future risks for producer economies as well as for global markets.”
New sources of supply will be needed whether or not demand peaks, the agency said.

"The analysis shows oil consumption growing in coming decades, due to rising petrochemicals, trucking and aviation demand. But meeting this growth in the near term means that approvals of conventional oil projects need to double from their current low levels," IEA director Fatih Birol said.

"Without such a pick-up in investment, US shale production, which has already been expanding at record pace, would have to add more than 10 million bpd from today to 2025, the equivalent of adding another Russia to global supply in seven years“ which would be an historically unprecedented feat."

Projected Renewables Surge Won't Prevent Runaway Global Warming
https://www.axios.com/renewable-energy-paris-climate-change-agreement-61e8f15e-59d9-4392-acfe-e1d5b506496e.html
https://www.iea.org/weo2018/

Quote
Projected growth of renewable power, electric vehicles and other low-carbon sources won't prevent levels of global warming that soar past the targets of the Paris climate agreement, the International Energy Agency said Monday.

Clean Energy Is Surging, but Not Fast Enough to Solve Global Warming
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/13/world-has-no-capacity-to-absorb-new-fossil-fuel-plants-warns-iea

Quote
Over the next two decades, the world’s energy system will undergo a huge transformation. Wind and solar power are poised to become dominant sources of electricity. China’s once-relentless appetite for coal is set to wane. The amount of oil we use to fuel our cars could peak and decline.

But there’s a catch: The global march toward clean energy still isn’t happening fast enough to avoid dangerous global warming, at least not unless governments put forceful new policy measures in place to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

That’s the conclusion of the International Energy Agency, which on Monday published its annual World Energy Outlook, a 661-page report that forecasts global energy trends to 2040. These projections are especially difficult right now because the world’s energy markets, which usually evolve gradually, are going through a major upheaval. ...

The report projects that emissions will keep rising slowly (steadily) until 2040.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2809 on: November 13, 2018, 05:41:56 PM »
Just to codify what Buddy wrote 40 minutes ago:
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2810 on: November 13, 2018, 06:53:12 PM »
“Ongoing worries....”

Oil down 4 percent as rout runs to 12 days on supercharged selling
Quote
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil’s slide accelerated on Tuesday, with U.S. futures dropping to lows not seen in 11 months due to ongoing worries about weakening global demand, oversupply and sell offs across other asset classes, including equities.
...
In its monthly report, OPEC said world oil demand next year would rise by 1.29 million barrels per day, 70,000 bpd less than predicted last month and the fourth consecutive forecast cut. Output, however, rose by 127,000 bpd to 32.9 million bpd, OPEC said. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-down-4-percent-as-rout-runs-to-12-days-on-supercharged-selling-idUSKCN1NI01G
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2811 on: November 13, 2018, 08:49:41 PM »
And down more. "Don't Panic" was the cry.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2812 on: November 14, 2018, 12:16:52 PM »
A really good article on why US shale oil and gas producers may be in real trouble. It explains free cash-flow very well and why when it's negative it is really bad news for the shale industry while can be just normal for a new business, e.g. TESLA, as it builds itself into long-term profitability.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-US-Shale-Overcome-Its-Cash-Flow-Problem.html
Quote
The shale oil industry in the United States is using investor money to subsidize oil consumers and to line the pockets of top management with no long-term plan to build value.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2813 on: November 14, 2018, 05:41:11 PM »
Florida to consider natural-gas power plant for Broward, nuclear reactors in Miami-Dade
Quote
Administrative Law Judge Cathy Sellers in July issued a 129-page recommended order that urged Scott and the Cabinet to approve certification for the natural-gas plant, which would replace two older generating units at what is known as FPL’s Lauderdale site in Dania Beach and Hollywood. The Sierra Club raised a series of objections, focusing heavily on greenhouse-gas emissions that would come from the new plant.

But Sellers wrote that the new plant would be more efficient than the units it would replace and would help reduce greenhouse-gas emissions across FPL’s broader system.

The Broward County plan is one of a series of projects FPL has undertaken in recent years to build natural-gas plants and shut down older facilities. That effort has included projects at Cape Canaveral, Riviera Beach, Port Everglades and in Okeechobee County. ...
http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/local/article221598615.html
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2814 on: November 15, 2018, 01:49:29 AM »
A really good article on why US shale oil and gas producers may be in real trouble. It explains free cash-flow very well and why when it's negative it is really bad news for the shale industry while can be just normal for a new business, e.g. TESLA, as it builds itself into long-term profitability.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-US-Shale-Overcome-Its-Cash-Flow-Problem.html
Quote
The shale oil industry in the United States is using investor money to subsidize oil consumers and to line the pockets of top management with no long-term plan to build value.
The shale oil industry has always done this, it has always looked, to any logical observer, to be on the verge of a massive bankruptcy. I suppose the longer this irrational market persists, the greater the disruption when it all collapses. Continuing with my relentless effort to find specks of pepper in all the fly shit, perhaps this disruption will finally make it clear to our policy makers that the age of fossil fuels has to end really really soon.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2815 on: November 15, 2018, 04:47:07 PM »
Oil inventories continue to grow.  API reported yesterday an increase of over 8 million barrels I believe.

As copper, oil, and lumber continue to show intermediate/long term weakness .... that does NOT spell good things for economies ..... and the equity markets.

I'll post some long term charts of oil later on ..... the picture is not too hot.  As well, things in the equity markets look like they are in for a "rough slog" in coming months.  I expect to see some numbers in the coming year that will NOT please stock holders.  Apple looks especially vulnerable .... but there are a LOT of things to NOT like in the short/intermediate term ..... and those things are affecting the oil market right now.

Underneath the hood .... in the LONGER RUN (ie more than a year out from where we are now) .... there are several good things happening .... like more and more and more EV products that will be taking the place of oil and gas products AND saving people money to boot (something that a FISCAL CONSERVATIVE AND SOCIAL MODERATE LOVES ON ALL LEVELS).

Just be aware that when this equity markets gets ready to bounce in the coming weeks ..... it is NOT done going down.  I'm afraid that is going to be a lot more painful..... with some nasty "countertrend rallies" that are then taken out and shot.

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sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2816 on: November 15, 2018, 09:37:31 PM »
Bonesaw walks. Five scapegoats selected. Chop-Chop square will be busier.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46222337

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2817 on: November 16, 2018, 10:08:34 PM »
Canada’s Oil Industry Is Said to Spar Over Forced Output Cuts
Quote
Canadian producers are not only being hit by the global plunge in oil prices, but face severe transport bottlenecks that have caused the northern nation’s customary discount to balloon to near record highs. A barrel of Canadian heavy crude was worth $15.75 on Wednesday afternoon.

Pipelines are full and new ones are almost impossible to build thanks to regulatory and political challenges. Storage facilities and rail cars are also at capacity, but the oil keeps on coming. If sustained, the steep discount will cost government coffers billions while kneecapping the oil sector. Peters & Co. estimated last week Alberta could lose at least C$5 billion ($3.78 billion) in royalties if current conditions persist.

“What we’re trying to do is see the government take very moderate action in terms of production levels in order to avoid an economic catastrophe,” Pourbaix said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/canada-s-oil-industry-is-said-to-spar-over-forced-output-cuts


More here:

A quick thread on the surreal gridlock that Canada's oil industry -- which, as a reminder, is a super big part of the economy -- finds itself in.
https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1062817943812218894
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2818 on: November 17, 2018, 05:10:47 PM »
Canada’s Oil Industry Is Said to Spar Over Forced Output Cuts
Quote
Canadian producers are not only being hit by the global plunge in oil prices, but face severe transport bottlenecks that have caused the northern nation’s customary discount to balloon to near record highs. A barrel of Canadian heavy crude was worth $15.75 on Wednesday afternoon.

Pipelines are full and new ones are almost impossible to build thanks to regulatory and political challenges. Storage facilities and rail cars are also at capacity, but the oil keeps on coming. If sustained, the steep discount will cost government coffers billions while kneecapping the oil sector. Peters & Co. estimated last week Alberta could lose at least C$5 billion ($3.78 billion) in royalties if current conditions persist.

“What we’re trying to do is see the government take very moderate action in terms of production levels in order to avoid an economic catastrophe,” Pourbaix said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/canada-s-oil-industry-is-said-to-spar-over-forced-output-cuts


More here:

A quick thread on the surreal gridlock that Canada's oil industry -- which, as a reminder, is a super big part of the economy -- finds itself in.
https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1062817943812218894

It took massive government intervention (about $200B) to ramp up the production of bitumen to its current levels. Now we are in the position of expecting massive government intervention to clean up the mess left by the industry  (about a quarter TRILLION dollars), and government intervention to slow down production so that supply and demand match again...Almost enough to make you think that the public money that flowed through the bitumen mines of Alberta into the coffers of industry was not such a great idea....

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2819 on: November 17, 2018, 09:52:23 PM »
US oil firm's bid to drill for oil in Arctic hits snag: a lack of sea ice 
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/15/arctic-oil-drilling-texas-hilcorp-beaufort-sea

Plans to establish the first oil drilling operation in US Arctic waters have hit an ironic snag – a lack of sea ice caused by rapid warming in the region.

Last month, the Trump administration approved the go-ahead of the Liberty project to extract oil from beneath the Beaufort Sea, off Alaska’s north coast.  But in order to get to the oil, Hilcorp Energy, the Texas-based company behind the project, has to construct a temporary gravel island about five miles offshore so it can drill in shallow water.

This nine-acre structure requires an expanse of landfast sea ice, or ice that forms each winter and attaches to the coast, which would then be covered in gravel and then concrete. However, a recent lack of shoreline ice has complicated Hilcorp’s plan to extract up to 70,000 barrels of oil a day, totaling around 150m barrels over two decades, from the site.
Quote
... “To safely transport gravel offshore in the Arctic, the ice along the route of the ice road must be of adequate thickness,” the BOEM spokesman said. “Over the last few years, that thickness has not developed until unusually late in the season.”
Hilcorp has now added another year to its timeline to get the drilling island completed, he said. Construction is set to start in 2020.
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rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2820 on: November 19, 2018, 06:12:54 PM »
Interesting set of posts in the past few days, pointing to the inability of those in power to carry out a planned transition. Rather, the fossil fuel and growth interests will keep their hands on the levers of power until they lose control with an extremely disorderly transition - with extensive financial economic and financial blowups as significant economic sectors become non-viable as we struggle to deal with the "happening right now" impacts of climate change.

I see the Tar Sands becoming a massive open air museum sucking in huge amounts of government money to stop it destroying the Alberta environment (e.g. all those tailings ponds), a massive ongoing environmental mess from shut down - but leaking - fracking wells, Florida coastal property rapidly depreciating, zero's having to be added to the California wild fire death count as years go by, and Saudi Arabia erupting when its unable to afford bribing and beating its population into submission. That's within a decade or so, not decades away.

Am on vacation in the UK (live in Ontario, Canada) and as well as wall-to-wall Brexit there is the continuing attempts to get fracking going, while banning onshore wind turbines because they spoil the view (i.e. conservative voter's property prices).

In Berlin last week, I was stunned by the amount of people walking with their young kids on the street and the subway and trams, and nearly got run over a number of times by all the cyclists. Now if only Germany could shut down their coal industry and go full hog on PEVs to get "vorsprung durch technik" out of the ICE age.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2018, 01:58:21 AM by rboyd »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2821 on: November 19, 2018, 09:49:44 PM »
Examining the reasons for the inevitable death of coal, oil, and natural gas.

The Doom Of Fossil Fuel Investments
Quote
The fossil fuel investment sector is doomed. The doom is already here for coal companies. For oil companies, doom will come within 10 years, but it could be as early as next year — markets are forward-looking and stock investments may well collapse before that. The natural gas business becomes doomed when oil dies.

It is unwise to invest any portion of any conservatively managed portfolio in pure-play fossil fuel stocks, or in stocks with the majority of their projected profits from fossil fuel operations. These businesses are dying.
...
The Rockefeller Brothers Fund was founded by descendants of J D Rockefeller, the founder of Standard Oil, using the money from Standard Oil. They divested starting in September 2014, and their investment performance has improved.

The words of Rockefeller Brothers Fund chairman Stephen Heintz should be heeded: “I’m convinced that if [J.D. Rockefeller] were alive today, he’d be looking out to the future and investing in clean energy technology.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/18/the-doom-of-fossil-fuel-investments/
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Sleepy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2822 on: November 20, 2018, 09:56:48 AM »
Early oil industry knowledge of CO2 and global warming
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0349-9
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2823 on: November 20, 2018, 04:29:57 PM »
Thanks Sleepy!


By 1954 Big Energy knew that they were peddling products that were altering the earth's atmosphere.
For the next >60 years they denied this reality.


Special places in Hell seem appropriate.
Terry

Sleepy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2824 on: November 20, 2018, 04:53:00 PM »
Thanks Sleepy!


By 1954 Big Energy knew that they were peddling products that were altering the earth's atmosphere.
For the next >60 years they denied this reality.


Special places in Hell seem appropriate.
Terry

Couldn't agree more, Terry. There's more in that paper, even Humble Oil (cough) made some early investigations:
Quote
In 1955, the API began funding the proposed research at Caltech under the name Project 53. The project focused on uranium–lead dating, yet work on carbon continued, at least for a time: later that year, the researchers told the API that they were using their mass spectrometer to make around 2,300 measurements on CO2 per year. The results were not published.
Others began examining fossil fuel emissions using carbon isotopes in tree rings. Hans Suess, in 1955, gave a low estimate of atmospheric fossil carbon of less than 1%. Suess’s work was expanded in 1957 by H. R. Brannon of Humble Oil Company (now ExxonMobil), who found higher concentrations of 3.5%. Brannon knew of Harrison Brown's unpublished work, compared results and found that they agreed.
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longwalks1

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2825 on: November 20, 2018, 06:15:18 PM »
Had to download the .ris to get the DOI  - I never knew what an ris file was until 5 minutes ago.

DOI  10.1038/s41558-018-0349-9    and the "Hub"   will get you the article - actually a corresondence/

Or you can pay $9 to a corporation for less than 2 pages.    I have sent a little money to the "Hub"

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2826 on: November 20, 2018, 06:54:01 PM »
"We are entering an unprecedented period of uncertainty in oil markets," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told a conference in Norway on Monday.

Oil drops 4 pct as equities slide sparks demand worries
Quote
November 20, 2018, 11:20:00 AM EDT

* Stock markets fall amid gloomy trade outlook

* Cautious investors have pulled large investments out of oil

* IEA boss warns oil markets face "unprecedented uncertainty"

* U.S. crude stocks likely up for 9th week - poll
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/oil-drops-4-pct-as-equities-slide-sparks-demand-worries-20181120-00812
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sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2827 on: November 20, 2018, 10:41:27 PM »

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2828 on: November 20, 2018, 10:43:09 PM »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2829 on: November 23, 2018, 05:38:47 PM »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2830 on: November 23, 2018, 06:24:04 PM »
Almost $50 West Texas Intermediate - wow.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2831 on: November 23, 2018, 11:16:40 PM »
Almost $50 West Texas Intermediate - wow.
Trumponomics rule, OK. He let Iran off the hook by granting waivers, so Iran's exports of oil is still holding up after Saudi and Russia thought they had the green light to turn the faucets up to full on.

There are a lot of US shale oil producers who have been burning cash something awful who were looking a bit sick this Thanksgiving Thursday, and even sicker this Black Friday.

Simpler to have Trump as your enemy. He seems to have a habit of stiffing his "friends".

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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magnamentis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2832 on: November 24, 2018, 12:28:51 AM »
Almost $50 West Texas Intermediate - wow.
Trumponomics rule, OK. He let Iran off the hook by granting waivers, so Iran's exports of oil is still holding up after Saudi and Russia thought they had the green light to turn the faucets up to full on.

There are a lot of US shale oil producers who have been burning cash something awful who were looking a bit sick this Thanksgiving Thursday, and even sicker this Black Friday.

Simpler to have Trump as your enemy. He seems to have a habit of stiffing his "friends".

there is a saying where i come from that goes like this:

if you have such a friends you don't need any enemies ;)

most probably this exists in one or another way in many languages and it especially applies to politics (so called political friends)
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2833 on: November 24, 2018, 10:44:33 AM »

there is a saying where i come from that goes like this:

if you have such a friends you don't need any enemies ;)

most probably this exists in one or another way in many languages and it especially applies to politics (so called political friends)

It's a little bit out of topic, but I have often seen that to be "friends" tend to be more useful for the most powerful one. The one get help, the other the honor.

At work, when we get a friendly price on a product, we sometimes check who is the friend.

There is also a joke about brotherly sharing, because 50-50 is often better.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2834 on: November 24, 2018, 06:20:04 PM »
Texas Is About to Create OPEC's Worst Nightmare
Quote
- Total U.S. production rising at fastest pace in 98 years

- Pipeline bottleneck in Texas set to ease by end of 2019
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-21/opec-s-worst-nightmare-the-permian-is-about-to-pump-a-lot-more
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2835 on: November 25, 2018, 10:18:36 PM »
There is a book that has just been transalted that should be quite good on the subject :
Oil, Power, and War: A Dark History from Mathieu Auzanneau.
To have a french book translated in English, it must be quite good. I asked the french version to Santa Claus (well, somebody will help him).
The guy has a blog in french : http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/

Peeking at Peak Oil from Kjell Aleklett must also be good. Didn't get it yet.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2018, 10:24:36 PM by etienne »

Red

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2836 on: November 26, 2018, 11:09:00 AM »
Looks like more of the same, FF companies ignoring the hard science and running with the hopium!

Oilsands waste is collected in sprawling toxic ponds. To clean them up, oil companies plan to pour water on them
The oil industry’s strategy to deal with a trillion litres of toxic goop is centred on a process even the Alberta Energy Regulator calls unproven. One top scientist describes the claim that water capping will return land to a natural state an an “impossible fantasy.”
FORT MCMURRAY, ALTA.—The toxic waste of the Canadian oilpatch has been quietly spreading in the boreal forest since bitumen mining began here in the 1960s.

The yogurt-like mix of clay, water, toxic acids, metals and leftover bitumen has sprawled in artificial ponds to cover an area twice the size of the city of Vancouver.

More than one trillion litres of the goop, called tailings, fill these man-made waste lakes that can be seen from space. An equivalent amount of water would take five days to tumble over Niagara Falls.

The contaminated tailings ponds attract and kill migrating birds. They emit methane and other greenhouse gases.

Despite years of public promises from officials that the tailings ponds would shrink and go away, they are growing. And in the meantime, troubling gaps are opening in the oversight system meant to ensure the oilpatch cleans up its mess. Alberta has collected only $1 billion from companies to help remediate tailings — a problem that is now estimated to cost about 100 times that.

https://www.thestar.com/news/investigations/2018/11/23/oilsands-waste-is-collected-in-sprawling-toxic-ponds-to-clean-them-up-oil-companies-plan-to-pour-water-on-them.html

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2837 on: November 27, 2018, 09:07:19 AM »
Saud is screwed. Trump laid out the deal. Pump oil, keep prices down, else i drop the Bonesaw tapes. Except I'm not sure Saudi state budget can survive 60US$/bbl prices at any attainable volume.

Bonesaw is caught in webs of his own making. His Aramco float was nixed by his father, the King, once he saw the true state of Aramco. Now Aramco bond offering got axed by the bankers too. And the King has refused to sell out the Palestinians in Bonesaw-Israel plan. Unfortunately for  Bonesaw, his father is his sole remaining supporter after Yemen war debacle, money grab at the Ritz, and now, Khashoggi fallout.  So the fallback of deposing daddy and asserting sole control is beginning to look shaky.

Bonesaw might wanna stick close to home, rather than leave for G20 Argentina meet at the end of this month. I seem to hear knives being sharpened.

sidd

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2838 on: November 27, 2018, 04:34:37 PM »
Federal Lands Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sequestration in the United States: Estimates for 2005–14
a USGS publication

Washington Post did a review:
Quote

A new report from the U.S. Geological Survey found the extracting and burning of fossil fuels from federal lands made up nearly a quarter of all carbon dioxide emissions in the United States between 2005 and 2014.

It was released on the same Friday the administration published an even larger interagency report outlining the severe economic toll climate change is projected to exact on the nation as the threats of coastal flooding and forest fires rise. Trump administration critics accused political appointees of trying to bury that report on Black Friday.

In a first-of-its-kind report, the agency found that the consumption of coal, oil and gas from federal onshore and offshore holdings represented 23.7 percent of carbon dioxide emissions nationwide on average over the 10-year period studied.  Fossil fuels from federally controlled areas account for much smaller portions — 7.3 percent and 1.5 percent — of methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively.
...
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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2839 on: November 27, 2018, 05:12:38 PM »
sidd
I believe that our beloved Prince has been given a pass for even more egregious acts in the past.


That the West has rather arbitrarily chosen to draw attention to this particular grizzly event may say more about America's apparent success with her fracking programs than the gruesome dismemberment of a WaPo stringer.


Turkey, Trump and probably any number of others are extorting everything they can from the Prince. At some point his Regal father may decide that the Kingdom is paying too high a price and will cut away the flotsam that may capsize his Ship of State.


Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2840 on: November 28, 2018, 06:46:41 PM »
Oil Has Nowhere to Go But Down
November 28, 2018, 11:56:59 AM EDT By dkorth@finsum.com (FINSUM), FINSUM
(Riyadh)
Quote
The oil market has been in an extremely rough patch over the last several weeks. Just a couple months ago, many were talking about the return of $100 oil. Suddenly, prices are just half that. The question is where is crude headed next. Well, the Saudis seem committed to keeping it weak, as the Kingdom, which leads OPEC, has just announced that it will not cut production. The catch is that it said it will not do so alone, which keeps the door open to another coordinated OPEC-wide cut, such as happened several months ago.

FINSUM : The big difference between a coordinated cut now and the one from a couple years ago is that the world looks much closer to recession a present, which means demand could flatten or fall even if output lowers. That means producers could lose revenue by cutting (instead of the difference being made up by price gains), which makes a big difference.
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/oil-has-nowhere-to-go-but-down-cm1061794
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2841 on: November 28, 2018, 10:24:16 PM »
You can also find articles saying the opposite, like here :
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2018/11/for-whom-peak-oil-is-coming-if-you-own.html
Somehow, I don't believe either the ones who say that there is enough oil, nor the one saying that the trouble is for now, but I believe that renewable energy is not just supported because of climate change. I find that the climate politics regarding oil in the EU really look like peak oil politics.

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2842 on: November 29, 2018, 12:07:40 AM »
Natgas pipeline spills in PA and OH:

--
... more than 800 state and federal permit violations ...

... violations included spills of drilling fluid, a clay-and-water mixture that lubricates equipment for drilling under rivers and highways; sinkholes in backyards; and improper disposal of hazardous waste and other trash. Fines topped $15 million.

... discharge of drilling fluids into state waters without a permit ...

 “made deliberate managerial decisions to proceed in what appears to be a rushed manner in an apparent prioritization of profit over the best engineering.”

“The violations are really meaningless to them,”

--

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pipelines-etp-violations-insight/two-u-s-pipelines-rack-up-violations-threaten-industry-growth-idUSKCN1NX1E3

sidd

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2843 on: November 29, 2018, 02:30:54 PM »
From Bloomberg
Quote
Oil rose above $50 a barrel in New York, erasing an earlier loss, after a report that Russia accepts the need to cut production in conjunction with OPEC.

All eyes are on this weekend’s G20 summit in Argentina, where Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman are likely to discuss how to coordinate oil policy. The nations are in talks over the timing of any reduction in supply, Reuters reported Thursday, a week before producers are due to meet in Vienna next week to discuss policy for 2019.

I watched intermittently yesterday, and didn't notice the price dropping below $50.  Oh well...
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2844 on: December 03, 2018, 07:17:44 PM »
Qatar is leaving the OPEC
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/03/qatar-pulls-out-of-opec-to-focus-on-gas-production

I guess they don't have enough oil anymore. They never had much of it (they are a LNG producer), so it probably doesn't make sense for them to stay in an oil Cartel.

I also heard somewhere that the US would like to make some legal complain about OPEC unfair trade practices, which is quite ironical because the first to do it was the Standard Oil, then the Texas Railroad Commission until the US passed the peak oil. After the US, the OPEC did the job. Oil market needs to be regulated otherwise prices wouldn't be stable enough compared to the investments needed to get it out of the ground.

The book "Oil, Power, and War: A Dark History" written by Mathieu Auzanneau is really interesting, I am now just after WWII.

 
« Last Edit: December 03, 2018, 07:32:44 PM by etienne »

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2845 on: December 03, 2018, 07:43:04 PM »
Oil market needs to be regulated otherwise prices wouldn't be stable enough compared to the investments needed to get it out of the ground.

It appears that the Canadian province of Alberta agrees, it is curtailing the production of oil in the province because unregulated, a glut has overwhelmed export facilities. Alberta concentrates on exporting raw product rather than refining it at home, so it is at the mercy of foreign refiners to accept and market  its product.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/notley-oil-cuts-1.4929489

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2846 on: December 06, 2018, 05:36:29 PM »
I noticed West Texas Intermediate was over $53 a day or two ago.  Back under $51.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2847 on: December 07, 2018, 05:05:39 PM »
Back up to $54 all ready.  My, my.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2848 on: December 08, 2018, 08:30:40 PM »
Canadian Natural (CNQ) Slashes Capex Amid Pipeline Pinch - Nasdaq.com
Quote
Notably, Canadian Natural is the first major company in Canada to slash its 2019 capex. In fact, considering the current state of affairs in the Canadian oil industry, it would not come much as a surprise if most of its peers like Imperial Oil Limited IMO , Suncor Energy Inc SU , Cenovus Energy Inc CVE , among others, make similar capex-cut announcements.

Although the company has stated its plans to ramp up spending levels, in case the crude prices in Canada witness a rebound or energy infrastructure improves, it will still take some time. In fact, the uncertain state of Canada's oil industry recently prompted the Alberta government to order production cuts across the province, in a bid to deal with the supply glut. 

As we know, pipeline construction in Canada has failed to keep pace with rising domestic oil, forcing producers to sell their products at a discounted rate. While oil production is surging in Canada, the country's exploration and production companies remain out of favor, primarily due to the scarcity of pipelines. The infrastructural bottlenecks have resulted in a supply glut situation. This has forced producers to give away their products in the United States - Canada's major market - at a discounted rate. The price gap between Alberta's Western Canada Select and the New York-traded West Texas Intermediate is currently around $20 a barrel. However, with quite a few pipelines coming online next year along with the government's plans to curb output, things may gradually work better for the Canadian oil industry. ...
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/canadian-natural-cnq-slashes-capex-amid-pipeline-pinch-cm1066131
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2849 on: December 14, 2018, 08:50:30 AM »
On the ASPO France web site, I found an interesting report from Jean Laherrère about oil production and prediction. It's quite up to date, which is unusual.

https://aspofrance.org/2018/10/03/updated-extrapolation-of-oil-past-production-to-forecast-future-production/