Wildfires

[Tom_Mazanec]

I don’t know, Tor, what does make you think that?
For all those decades both statistics were near zero, and then both start rising sharply just a few years ago.
That is an observation just looking at the graphs.
What’s political about that?

[interstitial]

It has probably already been mentioned but to anyone suffering from smoke indoors get an air cleaner with a HEPA filter. It has helped me with the worst of it. If you are broke a furnace hepa filter duct taped to a fan helps but is not great.

[kassy]

I don’t know, Tor, what does make you think that?
For all those decades both statistics were near zero, and then both start rising sharply just a few years ago.
That is an observation just looking at the graphs.
What’s political about that?

Arguably 2016 is slighly better then 2015 (more out of historical bounds) but there is nothing political about this graph in itself.

We are flipping from the old ice house earth to a state humanity as we know it has not known before.

If you combine this with a graph on siberian wildfires it sort of shows we are heading into new frontiers. All this while we are not really applying the brakes yet.

[Tom_Mazanec]

California’s largest wildfire on record is now a million-acre “gigafire”
https://www.vox.com/2020/10/5/21502397/august-complex-gigafire-wildfire-california-record

As of Monday morning, the August Complex Fire in the northern part of the state had burned at least 1,002,000 acres and was 54 percent contained, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire). The area that has burned since the fire ignited on August 16 is larger than Rhode Island and spans seven counties.

HotSpots H2O: Wildfire Threaten Cheyenne Water Supply
https://www.circleofblue.org/2020/wef/hotspots-h2o-wildfire-threaten-cheyenne-water-supply/

The Mullen Fire, which has spread through more than 147,000 acres of Colorado and Wyoming forest in the past two weeks, reached the southern edge of the main drinking water source for Cheyenne, the Wyoming capital. Protection of Rob Roy Reservoir is a major priority, city officials say.

70% of S. Idaho’s forests burned in the last 30 years. Think that will change? Think again.
https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/local/environment/fires/article246103000.html

Instead, the smoke arrived in September, first coming from the flurry of deadly fires across California and Oregon and now from the blazes that are burning in the national forests surrounding Boise. These fires that have already killed more than 27 people have once again brought national attention to the West and to their link to the rapidly changing climate.

The Climate Isn’t Just Worsening Wildfires, It Can Hobble Forests’ Ability to Recover
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/climate-impact-on-reforestation

If forests aren’t able to recover and regenerate, the fires could end up completely reshaping a landscape, with burned terrain emerging as long-term or permanent grassland or shrubland, or even a different type of forest altogether. “There are places that burned in the past 20 to 30 years, and they’re going to look different for a long time,” Rodman says. “They were contiguous conifer forests for decades and now they’re chest-high scrubs. That’s the kind of reorganization I’m talking about—a shift to a completely different ecosystem. If not different, it will certainly take a long time to get to where it was.”

[kassy]

So one really big fire and many other smaller ones...

On Monday, the August complex fire in northern California expanded beyond 1m acres, elevating it from a mere “megafire” to a new classification, “gigafire”, never used before in a contemporary setting in the state.

At 1.03m acres, the fire is larger than the state of Rhode Island and is raging across seven counties, according to fire agency Cal Fire. An amalgamation of several fires caused when lightning struck dry forests in August, the vast conflagration has been burning for 50 days and is only half-contained.

The August complex fire heads a list of huge fires that have chewed through 4m acres of California this year, a figure called “mind-boggling” by Cal Fire and double the previous annual record. Five of the six largest fires ever recorded in the state have occurred in 2020, resulting in several dozen deaths and thousands of lost buildings.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/06/california-wildfires-gigafire-first

[vox_mundi]

Colorado Fire Grows By Over 100,000 Acres In 1 Day, Hits Rocky Mountain National Park
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/22/926838887/colorado-fire-grows-by-over-100-000-acres-in-1-day-hits-rocky-mountain-national-



Already battling the largest fire in state history, Colorado is now dealing with another blaze that grew by more than 100,000 acres in a day.

The flames traveled east, fueled by beetle-eaten pine trees and dry winds. Hundreds evacuated. The fire jumped the Continental Divide, which is 10,000 to 12,000 feet above sea level. Conditions forced the closing of Rocky Mountain National Park.

The fire, called East Troublesome after a nearby creek, has spread to more than 125,000 acres. Smoke plumes stretched 40,000 feet in the air. The nearby town of Grand Lake was forced to evacuate.



... "The growth that you see on this fire is unheard of," Grand County Sheriff Brett Schroetlin said during a Thursday press conference. "We plan for the worst. This is the worst of the worst of the worst. And no matter how we look at it, we can't control Mother Nature." ... "It was basically out of a movie. It was a firestorm in downtown Grand Lake. Smoke and embers flying around. It was just a chaotic scene,"

[Juan C. García]

Colorado Fire Grows By Over 100,000 Acres In 1 Day, Hits Rocky Mountain National Park
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/22/926838887/colorado-fire-grows-by-over-100-000-acres-in-1-day-hits-rocky-mountain-national-

Already battling the largest fire in state history, Colorado is now dealing with another blaze that grew by more than 100,000 acres in a day.

The new figure is bigger...

Colorado wildfire grows by at least 140,000 acres in a day, forcing hundreds to flee

A dire wildfire crisis is unfolding in Colorado after a blaze exploded sixfold in size in just 24 hours, growing to about 170,000 acres on Thursday evening. The East Troublesome Fire, burning in Grand County and extending now into Rocky Mountain National Park, forced hundreds to quickly evacuate from Grand Lake and Granby overnight, with more evacuations taking place Thursday and an unknown number of structures reportedly destroyed.

The blaze has all the hallmarks of climate change. It’s burning at an elevation of 9,000 feet at a time of year when snow should be falling. The fire is also raging during a severe drought, aggravated by record heat, through stands of trees killed or weakened by a bark beetle infestation.

The East Troublesome Fire is now the second-largest wildfire in Colorado history. Three of the state’s five largest wildfires on record have now occurred in 2020. The largest, the Cameron Peak Fire, is still burning just west of Fort Collins.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/22/colorado-wildfire-east-troublesome/

[vox_mundi]

Colorado wildfire smoke turns Minnesota's sky and snow orange
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/10/22/colorado-wildfire-smoke-turns-minnesotas-sky-and-snow-orange

Our surreal orange sky Thursday featured lightning, thunder and orange-tinted snow

[Sigmetnow]

Colorado
"My mom took these as she left Grand Lake tonight possibly seeing her house for the last time. Multiple buildings in the town are already burning. #EastTroublesomeFire #TroublesomeFire"
https://mobile.twitter.com/henslayofficial/status/1319151678080372736
⬇️ Photo below; more at the link.

5 people missing as Colorado grapples with one of its worst wildfires on record - CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/colorado-wildfire-east-troublesome-fire-people-missing/

Matt Renoux: "Early in the day and the #EastTroublesomeFire is already picking up with activity. More than 125,000 acres burned and we’re hearing reports that dozens of homes have been lost in the Columbine Lake neighborhood near Grand Lake. #9News”
https://mobile.twitter.com/mattrenoux/status/1319293015857352709
Photos at the link.

Corey H. Jones: "Here's our ongoing coverage of Colorado's #EastTroublesomeFire, which crews expect to grow today bc of more high winds and dry conditions. ...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/coreyhjones_/status/1319324057658118146

Michael Wara: "Fingers crossed for Estes Park today. It appears that #EastTroublesomeFire may. have crossed the Continental Divide. GOES-17 heat signatures tend to exaggerate the scope of a fire but not usually by this much. Grand Lake in lower left, Estes Park in upper right.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelwwara/status/1319317380820918273
⬇️ Map below.

The Colorado Sun: "Until 2002, Colorado had never had a 100,000-acre wildfire. Yesterday, the #EastTroublesomeFire grew 100,000 acres in 24 hours and is still only the third-biggest fire this year. More charts: https://t.co/GP944fLPjh Latest on #EastTroublesomeFire: https://t.co/sjGdNHPwq6 ”
https://mobile.twitter.com/coloradosun/status/1319321051428319234
⬇️ Chart below.

[J Cartmill]

  Extremely Critical fire danger in California.

From the Sacramento Weather Office discussion:

  A powerful and dangerous offshore wind event will materialize 
  across northern and central California over the next 12 to 24 
  hours. This event is forecast to be the strongest event of the 
  year so far for the region. Consequently, the potential fire 
  weather impacts will be extreme. The Storm Prediction Center has a
  large portion of the region under an "extremely critical" risk, 
  the highest possible categorical assignment for fire weather. 
  Fuels are dry and will only further dry, winds and gusts will be 
  very strong, and relative humidity values will be desert-dry. The 
  meteorological synoptic setup is uncomfortably similar to recent
  past events in northern California such as October 27-28, 2019 
  (Kincade Fire rapid growth), November 8, 2018 (Camp Fire rapid 
  growth), and October 8-9, 2017 (2017 Wine Country Fires rapid 
  growth).

  While winds are forecast to gradually subside through the day on 
  Monday, relative humidity values will drop to remarkably low 
  values -- less than 5 percent for some locations -- with dew 
  points at or below 0 deg F  (-18 deg C).


  To recap...all necessary ingredients will be in place to produce 
  extremely critical fire weather conditions: 1) strong winds, 2) 
  low relative humidity values, and 3) dry wildland fuels. Any new 
  ignitions will be present in an environment that will promote 
  rapid, explosive, and dangerous spread of fire. Have a plan in 
  place if you need to evacuate will little/no notice. While Fire 
  Season 2020 has already been historic from the countless lightning-
  based ignitions in August, remember that peak offshore wind 
  season is right now for much of the Golden State. Be safe and 
  vigilant during this extremely high-impact and particularly 
  dangerous fire weather event.

[Sigmetnow]

California.  Humidities in the low single digits + Santa Ana winds.
Fires sweep through Orange County, driving tens of thousands from their homes

A pair of wind-driven wildfires raced toward neighborhoods in Orange County Monday, critically injuring two firefighters, forcing tens of thousands of residents to evacuate and smothering much of the region with smoke.

The larger of the blazes, the Silverado fire, broke out shortly after 6:45 a.m. in the brush country around Santiago Canyon and Silverado Canyon roads, burning more than 7,200 acres as Santa Ana winds pushed it west to the suburban edge of Irvine and Lake Forest. By Monday evening, more than 70,000 people were under evacuation orders in the foothills.

Two firefighters on hand crews were severely burned as they battled the flames, according to Orange County Fire Authority Chief Brian Fennessy.

The firefighters, ages 26 and 31, were both intubated after suffering second- and third-degree burns over half their bodies, Fennessy said. ...

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-10-27/la-me-fires-orange-county-mainbar

[Tom_Mazanec]

Severe wildfires burning 8 times more area in western U.S., study finds
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wildfires-western-united-states-8-times-more-area/

As we move into winter and what is typically the wet season for the western U.S., the 2020 fire season is finally winding down. But the damage is done: nearly 14 million acres have burned across the nation, about double the 10-year average and the most acres burned since reliable record-keeping began in 1983.

[oren]

From the article:

[Tom_Mazanec]

Severe Wildfires Raise the Chance for Future Monstrous Blazes
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/severe-wildfires-raise-the-chance-for-future-monstrous-blazes/

The complete torching of trees allows dense, low vegetation to sprout, creating a new hotbed for more extreme fire