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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #350 on: October 20, 2017, 03:41:00 AM »
Last year, half of the fire acreage burned in all of Europe lay in Portugal—a country with just 3% of Europe’s land
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/921177904611983360

Europe’s hurricane-fueled wildfires might become a recurring nightmare
With its vast forests and typically warm and dry summers, Portugal is already Europe’s wildfire capital. And in recent decades, its profound and unique socioeconomic vulnerability to fire has only grown. Last year, half of the fire acreage burned in all of Europe lay in Portugal — a trend attributed both to haphazard forestry practices and climate change bringing hotter and drier weather.

This year, the sheer scale of the fires has been staggering. On Sunday alone, wildfires burned at least 300,000 acres — more than is normally burned in an entire year. Smoke from the fires quickly spread as far away as London.
...
“It really is a textbook example of wildfire as a socio-natural hazard,” José Miguel Pereira, a forest ecologist at the University of Lisbon tells Grist via email. Or to put it another way, human activity is making wildfires worse. These infernos are a product of our disregard for the fact that nature is now almost entirely something we’ve created — these disasters aren’t natural. ...
http://grist.org/article/europes-hurricane-fueled-wildfires-might-become-a-recurring-nightmare/
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ritter

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #351 on: October 20, 2017, 06:30:27 PM »
If anybody would like a view of the structures we've lost from the fires here in the north Bay Area, this is an excellent map.

http://calfireforestry.maps.arcgis.com/apps/PublicInformation/index.html?appid=5bbcbed430ad45e5a38e6be155ef5fec

Fortunately, we haven't had to endure a "presidential" visit and have paper towels thrown at us.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #352 on: October 20, 2017, 08:01:28 PM »
Wow.
All 10 of California’s worst fires have now happened since 1991-Oakland Hills.
Tubbs Fire, which partly destroyed Santa Rosa, is now #1
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/921434044914634752

CAL FIRE PIO:  As damage assessment of the #CAwildfires continues, 8,400 structures were destroyed, many have made the Top 20 Most Destructive List.
     https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/921407668354351105
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #353 on: October 23, 2017, 05:12:57 PM »
CAL FIRE PIO:  California Statewide Fire Summary (10/22)
10 large fires
6,000 firefighters
8,400 structures destroyed
42 fatalities
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents
     https://twitter.com/CALFIRE_PIO/status/922113606065385477
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #354 on: October 29, 2017, 08:21:01 PM »
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TerryM

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #355 on: October 29, 2017, 09:37:29 PM »
Why were California's wine country fires so destructive?
https://theconversation.com/amp/why-were-californias-wine-country-fires-so-destructive-86043


I think Pruitt's New EPA would approve your link for publication.  :'(
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #356 on: October 30, 2017, 04:21:02 PM »
California Statewide Fire Summary (10/30)
5 large fires
1,000 firefighters
8,900 structures destroyed
43 fatalities
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents

    https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/925018818165878785
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #357 on: December 04, 2017, 12:01:28 AM »
It's December, so that of course means Southern California is facing a major wildfire threat this week.
Hurricane force wind gusts + one of the driest ever starts to the rainy season = Extreme fire threat

NWS Los Angeles: Potential #SantaAnaWind impacts Mon-Thu include extreme fire danger, downed trees/powerlines, blowing dust, and power outages. #LAwind #LAWeather #Socal

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/937455047302148096


"Extremely critical" fire weather alert--the highest possible risk--just issued by NOAA for Santa Monica Mts. area for Monday. Serious stuff.
https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/937372718898360321
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #358 on: December 04, 2017, 12:17:49 AM »
Wildfire season is now year-round in California.
"Potential for the strongest and longest duration Santa Ana event so far this season"
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/937460345160990721
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solartim27

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #359 on: December 05, 2017, 08:08:15 AM »
FNORD

gerontocrat

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #360 on: December 05, 2017, 02:40:16 PM »
And so it begins.  Posted at 7 pm, by 11 pm it is up to 10,000 acres.
http://ktla.com/2017/12/04/fast-moving-brush-fire-in-santa-paula-area-burns-50-acres-amid-red-flag-conditions/

Latest from the GUARDIAN-
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/05/rapidly-spreading-california-wildfire-thousands-homes

Nearly 8,000 homes have been evacuated in southern California after ferocious winds whipped up an explosive wildfire that could soon threaten a city of more than 100,000.

The blaze broke out on Monday evening east of Santa Paula, which is about 60 miles north-west of Los Angeles. It grew to more than 100 sq km (40 sq miles) by the early hours of Tuesday, consuming vegetation that has not burned in decades, the Ventura county fire sergeant Eric Buschow said.
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solartim27

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #362 on: December 05, 2017, 05:21:20 PM »
As of 8 AM the Thomas fire is at 45,000 acres, no containment, may stop when it reaches the ocean.  Good map from the VCFD here
https://twitter.com/VCFD_PIO/status/938060292843487232?s=17
FNORD

solartim27

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #363 on: December 05, 2017, 06:21:30 PM »
FNORD

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #364 on: December 05, 2017, 07:20:34 PM »
“Within a few hours, the fire jumped to thousands of acres as Santa Ana winds, blowing as fast as 40 to 60 mph, carried its embers. The fire engulfed dry chaparral and climbed through steep terrain.”

Southern California fire is 'out of control,' forcing thousands to evacuate
By early Tuesday, the fire was burning at a rate of nearly an acre [0.4 hectares] per second. At that speed, it would have covered Manhattan's Central Park in about 15 minutes.

• About 27,000 people were under mandatory evacuation in Ventura County as fire officials warned the powerful winds could push flames further into the city of Ventura.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/05/us/ventura-county-fire-california/index.html
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #365 on: December 05, 2017, 07:33:03 PM »
I got an answer from the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change just before the department was abolished:

That’s correct, the models used vary in what they include, and some feedbacks are absent as the understanding and modelling of these is not yet advanced enough to include. From those you raise, this applies to melting permafrost emissions, forest fires and wetlands decomposition.
(my emphasis)

I've  also been following the Global Carbon Project on wildfires and their carbon emissions. The Global Carbon Project's Global Carbon Budget 2017 has this image:



Does anyone know how bad this season will be?

Have the models (CMIP6?) taken proper account of wildfire increases?

Are wild fires a big deal for the climate or not?
« Last Edit: December 05, 2017, 11:33:08 PM by GeoffBeacon »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #366 on: December 05, 2017, 09:56:07 PM »
The southern California wildfire showing up nearly as bright if not as bright as the city lights of Los Angeles.

Nighttime satellite imagery clearly highlights the explosive growth of the #ThomasFire in #SoCal (comparison from the night before). Latest estimates have it at 31,000 acres. #CAFire #cawx
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwssacramento/status/938083463349112833
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #367 on: December 05, 2017, 10:03:45 PM »
So far in 2017, wildfires have scorched some 1,700 square miles [4,400 sq km ] in California, an area larger than the state of Rhode Island. 
[Data:  http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_stats?year=2017 ]

https://twitter.com/usatodayweather/status/938120003559321603
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #368 on: December 06, 2017, 03:08:31 AM »
Last night I got a phonecall about a power outage in Santa Barbara. I put the post on the wrong thread
before I realized a fire had caused the outage. Daybreak I could see the smoke 80 miles away and by this afternoon there was smoke and bad air conditions. Freezing temperatures and inverted atmospheric conditions seem to be shoving the smoke to the ground here in the Santa Ynez Valley.
Feels kinda funky to breath .
 We have been in a unrelenting drought in Ventura and  Santa Barbara counties. Yes we got average rains here last winter but it in no way stopped the tree die off that has taken out millions of live oaks on Southern exposed hillsides. It has to contribute to the ferocity of these fires , dead dry oaks burning differently from live ones. The live oaks will often survive fast burning fires and produce new leaf come spring. I expect the heat of burning all that dead wood will result in extra live oak mortality on the Southern exposed hillsides.
 We expect fires during Santa Ana conditions. Living in the canyons , in oak habitat , comes with risks.
I live in the flatlands by the river on agriculture land. It never , well never in the seventeen years I've lived here, blows Santa Ana here where I live. It does however freeze under these conditions and today I was fixing freeze damage on hoses that popped late night.
 We need rain

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #369 on: December 06, 2017, 04:10:26 AM »
Bruce Steele wrote:  “We expect fires during Santa Ana conditions.“

People can see the increase in dry vegetation and address the elevated danger in their back yards, so to speak... but I imagine it’s difficult to foresee Santa Ana conditions which are suddenly stronger, and last longer, than has been the norm up to now.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #370 on: December 06, 2017, 04:27:49 AM »
“About a dozen people at the fairgrounds shared similar stories: smelling and then seeing a roaring red gleam approaching so quickly that they barely had time to grab belongings— a task made even more difficult because of power outages.”

More Than 150,000 Ordered To Flee As Wildfires Torch Homes In Southern California
Strong winds caused multiple fires to explode Monday night and Tuesday morning, forcing more than 150,000 people to evacuate and prompting the California governor to declare a state of emergency.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/hazelshearing/a-huge-wildfire-is-tearing-through-southern-california
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sidd

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #371 on: December 06, 2017, 06:05:53 AM »
" It does however freeze under these conditions and today I was fixing freeze damage on hoses that popped late night. "

Blow them out with compressed air if freeze is expected. The fitting is ez to make or you can just buy one. O, and make sure dripcock on compressor is not frozen either ...

Nuttn worse than fighting a fire in freeze and realizing the 200 feet of hose you unspooled in a hurry is frozen and ripped.

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #372 on: December 06, 2017, 03:02:22 PM »
Use caution on U/S 101 between Ventura and Santa Barbara. Fire is burning on both sides of the highway. Expect intermittent closures and/or CHP escorts through the area. #ThomasFire #sheriffvc
     https://twitter.com/venturasheriff/status/938317111503532033
First photo below.

STUNNING: Pacific Ocean glows with reflection of the Thomas Fire after the wildfire jumps Highway 101 between Ventura and Santa Barbara. http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2017/12/06/thomas-fire-jumps-highway-101/
     https://twitter.com/cbsla/status/938394398114635776
Second photo below.

My friend Jim Bob Barnett took this photo last night from Ortega Hill in Summerland. Stay safe everyone!  #ThomasFire
     https://twitter.com/ashleydevan/status/938076812667523072
Third photo below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #373 on: December 06, 2017, 03:18:10 PM »
Climate context for the horrific #ThomasFire:
–Temperatures in the 80s all week, +15 above normal
–Just 0.11" of rain since Oct 1 in L.A., 94% below normal
–Exceptional Santa Ana event, with wind gusts near hurricane force
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/938136528773177344

This paper proposes a link between climate change and stronger Santa Ana winds:
Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for economic impact and future change
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094005

Flames leaping near the 405 in Los Angeles this morning.
Can you *imagine* if this was your commute to work?
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/938410214382014464
Brief video at the link.

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jai mitchell

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #374 on: December 06, 2017, 05:12:40 PM »
https://twitter.com/abc7leslielopez?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Enews%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
#SkirballFire UPDATE: The 405 Fwy is now CLOSED in both directions between the 101 Fwy and 10 Fwy as the 50-acre brush fire near the Getty Center continues to rage. Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for parts of Bel Air as the fire approaches homes in the area.
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Paddy

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #375 on: December 06, 2017, 06:31:55 PM »
Worth noting that even before this week's latest wildfires, 2017 was the third worst year on record for the USA for total hectares burned, after 2015 in first place and then 2006 in second place. A total of 9.19 million hectares had burned by the end of November https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #376 on: December 06, 2017, 06:46:01 PM »
...
#SkirballFire UPDATE: The 405 Fwy is now CLOSED in both directions between the 101 Fwy and 10 Fwy as the 50-acre brush fire near the Getty Center continues to rage. ...

Can’t help but think that Elon Musk’s planned tunnel, parallel to the 405, would still be a safe mode of transport in situations like this — unlike road or rail.  And such situations will certainly continue to happen in the future.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #378 on: December 06, 2017, 08:02:12 PM »
Thick smoke streamed from several fires in southern California when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image in the afternoon on December 5, 2017.

The largest of the blazes—the fast-moving Thomas fire in Ventura County—had charred more than 65,000 acres (24,000 hectares or 94 square miles), according to Cal Fire. Smaller smoke plumes from the Creek and Rye fires are also visible.
https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/91000/91379/ventura_tmo_2017239_lrg.jpg

Image below; more at the link.
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pileus

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #379 on: December 07, 2017, 12:46:50 AM »
I happen to be in Ventura County this week.  At my location the primary issue yesterday was poor air quality from smoke.  The winds have been stiffening since daybreak and the Santa Ana’s will pick up again tonight.  My first experience with CA wildfires, and it’s not something I prefer to repeat.

Paddy

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #380 on: December 07, 2017, 01:01:30 AM »
I happen to be in Ventura County this week.  At my location the primary issue yesterday was poor air quality from smoke.  The winds have been stiffening since daybreak and the Santa Ana’s will pick up again tonight.  My first experience with CA wildfires, and it’s not something I prefer to repeat.

On that note, the mortality figures given for wildfires are certainly an underestimate, since they'll only cover the deaths immediately and directly attributable, and not the deaths among the general population attributable to the worsening air quality.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #381 on: December 07, 2017, 03:52:43 AM »
Our dry air mass (orange/red colors) seen on water vapor satellite this afternoon is about to get reinforcement. More dry air forming in NV will be here by Thu, combining with strong #SantaAnaWinds in most LA and Ventura Co. valleys and mountains. #LAWeather
https://twitter.com/nwslosangeles/status/938551079125602309
Photo below; GIF at the link.

Extremely critical fire weather conditions tonight-Thursday as strong and damaging #SantaAnaWinds combine with single digit humidities. Very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior likely. #LAwind #LAWeather #cawx
https://twitter.com/nwslosangeles/status/938571775637639169
Photo below.

Scary quote from Cal Fire re: forecast tomorrow: "There will be no ability to fight fires in these kinds of winds." (80+ mph expected)
https://twitter.com/josephserna/status/938502870940315648

Literally off the charts fire danger in LA on Thursday. 162 and above = extreme

Tomorrow there will be 4% humidity and a Brush Burning index of 296. "This is the highest number I've ever seen in my career," said L.A. Fire Chief Ralph Terrazas.
More on the index here: http://www.lafd.org/news/how-does-lafd-determine-wildfire-danger-los-angeles
https://twitter.com/kpcc/status/938565891775590400
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #382 on: December 07, 2017, 03:11:58 PM »
New uses for technology in our increasingly dangerous climate-changed world.

This Is How California Officials Alerted Hundreds Of Thousands As Wildfires Approached Their Homes
In a rare move, California officials sent sweeping emergency alerts to hundreds of thousands of people as wildfires continued to rage.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/briannasacks/as-wildfires-rip-through-southern-california-heres-how
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #383 on: December 07, 2017, 04:08:31 PM »
Thomas Fire almost surrounds Ojai, California
Wednesday night the fire spread further up the coast toward Carpinteria
http://wildfiretoday.com/2017/12/07/thomas-fire-almost-surrounds-ojai-california/

Ludicrous Fire Weather predicted in Southern California through Saturday
http://wildfiretoday.com/2017/12/06/ludicrous-fire-weather-predicted-in-southern-california-through-saturday/


Below: Map of the Thomas Fire. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite in the 12 hours before 2 a.m. PST December 7. The red line was the perimeter 24 hours before, and the yellow line was about 48 hours before.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #384 on: December 08, 2017, 08:35:26 PM »
California's Climate Emergency
Fires continue to burn Southern California, and climate scientists have warned us for years that the region was entering a year-round fire regime
For years, climate scientists have warned us that California was entering a year-round fire regime. For years, climate campaigners have been wondering what it would take to get people to wake up to the urgency of cutting fossil fuel emissions. For years, we've been tip-toeing as a civilization towards a point of no return.

That time is now.

The advent of uncontrollable wintertime megafires in California is a turning point in America's struggle to contain the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. Conditions that led to the Thomas fire won't happen every year, but the fact that they're happening at all should shock us. ...
http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/southern-california-wildfires-climate-change-emergency-w513659
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #385 on: December 10, 2017, 04:15:46 PM »
There were multiple emergency notices that went out over the I-phone last night. The fire has jumped into Santa Barbara county and is rapidly moving west. There are evacuations now in the hills from Carpenteria to  Montecito. Santa Ana winds are still blowing. There is a very thick tree canopy throughout most of Montecito. The fire on the ridge line is now in the area above Jameson reservoir so any change in winds that become northerly would be worst case.
 A local newsfeed called Noozhawk has been the best source of ongoing news stories .

Here is a satellite heat map from last night. Is

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/939859196895514624/photo/1

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #386 on: December 10, 2017, 04:26:51 PM »
Santa Barbara County coastal towns under siege as Thomas fire rages
The Santa Barbara County coastal towns of Carpinteria and Montecito were under siege from the Thomas fire Sunday morning as the destructive blaze again raged out of control.
...
The Thomas fire has burned 155,000 acres and forced 88,000 people to flee their homes. Official estimates have put the cost of combating the fire at $25 million. ...
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-thomas-fire-santa-barbara-fire-20171210-story.html

From earlier:
In all, there are six wildfires burning in Southern California. About 8,500 firefighters are battling the fires, which have collectively burned 175,000 acres.

“We’re facing a new reality in this state, where fires threatened people’s lives, their properties, their neighborhoods and billions and billions of dollars. So we have to have the resources to combat the fires,” [California Gov. Jerry] Brown told reporters at a news conference at the Ventura County Fairgrounds.

The governor thanked firefighters for their efforts and expressed sympathy for residents who had lost their homes and animals, calling it a “horror” and “terrible tragedy for so many people.”

Brown added that climate change may exacerbate the weather conditions that caused the wildfires to explode.

“This is the new normal, and this could be something that happens every year or every few years,” he said. “We’re about to have a firefighting Christmas.” ...
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-wildfires-california-20171209-story.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #387 on: December 10, 2017, 04:39:38 PM »
CALFIRE map.  The Thomas fire is upper left.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #388 on: December 10, 2017, 07:50:16 PM »
“Latest CA fire outlook:
–Offshore winds locked in until at least Friday (a streak of 13 days in a row).
–No rain in Southern California until at least Dec. 26th (16 days from now.)
–Temperatures remain ~10°F above normal for foreseeable future.
Not good. ... “
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/939928521434116101

THE CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES COULD CONTINUE UNTIL CHRISTMAS
• Thomas fire is the first megafire in recorded California history in the month of December.
• That the fires are happening when the rainy season is normally already in full swing is one thing, but the extent and unpredictability of the flames continue to astound officials tasked with stopping their spread.
https://psmag.com/environment/california-wildfires-no-end-in-sight


#ThomasFire now the 10th largest fire in California state history. And it's happening in December.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/939901588403040256
Article and photo at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #389 on: December 10, 2017, 09:55:03 PM »
Brief video at the link shows what they are up against. :'(

#ThomasFire- Fire engines parked in front of homes at Cate School in Carpinteria. In the field are off-loaded Fire dozer transports. The dozers and operators are out making nearby fire breaks.
https://twitter.com/eliasonmike/status/939846647772614659
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #390 on: December 11, 2017, 03:15:03 AM »
#ThomasFire in #Ventura and #SantaBarbara counties now over 200,000 acres and still rapidly growing. Given extreme dryness of vegetation, persistent #SantaAna winds, & recent record warmth, could ultimately become largest fire in California history.  In December. #CAwx #CAfire
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/940024817453076480
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wili

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #391 on: December 11, 2017, 05:09:49 AM »
At 230,000 acres, Thomas is now the fifth largest fire in modern CA history, and it just went down from 15% contained to 10%.

That's 360 square miles, or 930 square kilometers.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Paddy

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #392 on: December 11, 2017, 08:27:00 AM »
It's also not that far off the largest fire in modern Cal history :-S

Bruce Steele

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #393 on: December 11, 2017, 06:30:14 PM »
The smoke from the fire was Terrible yesterday. My solar system that was putting out
~ 3000 W at noon before the fire was only putting out 300 W yesterday. It would have been a blue sky but we never saw anything but a blood red sun and an Martian red sky. My wife and I holed up in the house but the critters have been in crappy air for a week now. One sow had what appeared to be a stroke but I don't know if the smoke had anything to do with it . She is still ambulatory but her front and rear legs on one side are having trouble.
 Things are somewhat better today, I can see some blue . I can remember smog from the seventies that was similar to today's conditions.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #394 on: December 11, 2017, 09:54:29 PM »
“Ferocious Santa Ana winds could gust between 40-55 mph on Monday before tapering, CNN meteorologist Rachel Aissen said. Ventura County and surrounding areas are under an elevated fire outlook, with temperatures remaining between 78-82 degrees as humidity continues to fall.”

California wildfires now larger than New York City and Boston combined
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/us/california-wildfires/index.html
More photos at the link.

Below: “Palm trees sway in a gust of wind as a firefighter carries a hose while battling a wildfire at Faria State Beach in Ventura on December 7. The windswept blazes have forced tens of thousands of evacuations and destroyed homes.”
« Last Edit: December 11, 2017, 09:59:42 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.