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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #300 on: January 25, 2016, 12:26:51 PM »
I don't follow this as close as some of the others here, but that certainly looks like some open waters to me. I think there were something similar last year?

That open water - at the bottom, slightly to the right of middle - on the Sentinel image is the open water to the north of Svalbard, that can be seen on the Uni Bremen SIC map that plg posted.

I believe plg is referring to the reddish smudge north of that, which looks like it's solid on the Sentinel image.


It looks like an open wound, but I am not skilled enough to differentiate between clouds and ice. But, if it is not an artefact, is this not very unusual in January?

It would be unusual, and could only be explained by massive transport due to very strong northerly winds (which aren't there as of now). Melting on such a local scale would be highly unlikely, unless some very strange upwelling of warm waters would be occurring.

But it's an artefact, and these aren't unusual on the Uni Bremen SIC map, whatever the time of year. My rule of thumb is that if it's there for three days in a row, it might be something.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #301 on: January 25, 2016, 12:37:55 PM »
Is the red patch at 45E 80N for real? In January?

Here's AMSR2's version of events:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/01/more-heat-heading-for-north-pole/#comment-213271

AMSR2 image redacted - See below. Here's DMI's "ice temperature" version of events, currently from the 23rd:

« Last Edit: January 25, 2016, 02:18:14 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #302 on: January 25, 2016, 01:18:50 PM »
You are absolutely correct Neven, looking a bit further north there's nothing visible via Sentinel either. Bummer, I crashed page 6 for nothing.  ;D

Wipneus

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #303 on: January 25, 2016, 01:27:25 PM »
Is the red patch at 45E 80N for real? In January?

Here's AMSR2's version of events:



Jim, for me UH AMSR2 did not update for a couple of days (latest is 21 Jan). Where did you get an 25 Jan image, if the file name is correct?

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #304 on: January 25, 2016, 01:49:14 PM »
Jim, for me UH AMSR2 did not update for a couple of days (latest is 21 Jan). Where did you get an 25 Jan image, if the file name is correct?

You are quite correct Wipneus. My apologies to one and all. I grabbed a quick screenshot from the centre of the most recent image in my automatically updated folder of AMSR2 images without checking the date. That one is indeed old news. This one is definitely from yesterday lunch time though:

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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #305 on: January 25, 2016, 05:10:09 PM »
plg, here's the cut out of the high res I tried to add earlier.
http://s27.postimg.org/4xgrvacqb/82_N45_E.jpg
http://www.polarview.aq/

I don't follow this as close as some of the others here, but that certainly looks like some open waters to me. I think there were something similar last year?
I see definition and structure inside of the darkened zone. There do seem to be polynyas. Further, precipitation and a burst of heat and wind from the latest storm to reach the region has just passed through.  My impression is low clouds over fractured ice, and possibly wet snow delivered as recent precipitation.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #306 on: January 25, 2016, 09:04:18 PM »
As pointed above that wedge of open water is not within the pack, it is rather the ice edge, but would be nice to follow its evolution during past (and present) storms. After all we hear all the time how damaging for ice edge storm swells can be, and I bet that big swells had been coming over there. Ill check UH maps...

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #307 on: January 26, 2016, 09:47:17 AM »
At a time when we have concerns about the north Atlantic drift losing speed the run of storms with a strong southerly draw appears to have piled warm waters into the pack edge? I wonder if this is all in my mind or whether the anoms on our side ( Atlantic) of the basin do reflect the frequent occurrence of powerful storms pushing southerly winds up into the basin ( and driving the ocean surface before it?) . Do we know how far under the ice these anom temps are driven and whether we ought to expect  a rapid retreat of the ice edge this spring due to pre-conditioning by this anomalous weather?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #308 on: January 26, 2016, 10:12:18 AM »
Svalbard is back below freezing this morning, but the weather at Station Nord is positively toasty today. A maximum of -15 °C  is forecast:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #309 on: January 26, 2016, 10:36:28 AM »
The weather at Station Nord is positively toasty today. A maximum of -15 °C  is forecast:

In related news, here is the surf forecast for Greenland:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/01/more-heat-heading-for-north-pole/#comment-213280
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #311 on: January 27, 2016, 08:57:46 AM »
The data from the weather buoys near the Pole has made it onto the web:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/01/more-heat-heading-for-north-pole/#comment-213287

The one on the Svalbard side reports that air temperatures managed to pop over "unfreezing point" briefly. Surface temperatures on the other hand, did not.
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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #312 on: January 27, 2016, 10:31:44 PM »
The data from the weather buoys near the Pole has made it onto the web:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/01/more-heat-heading-for-north-pole/#comment-213287

The one on the Svalbard side reports that air temperatures managed to pop over "unfreezing point" briefly. Surface temperatures on the other hand, did not.

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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

NeilT

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #313 on: January 28, 2016, 07:43:41 PM »
Not many like this in the record...



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Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #314 on: January 28, 2016, 07:52:37 PM »
Indeed, but the most recent parallel is 2006, with the highest summer minimum for a long time.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2006.png

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #315 on: January 28, 2016, 08:02:10 PM »
Indeed, but the most recent parallel is 2006, with the highest summer minimum for a long time.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2006.png

I recall somewhere on the forum reading a discussion of the use of degree days as a proxy for understanding changes in volume. I shall have to dig a bit.  There are considerably fewer this year for sure.

EDIT: Ah, here we are, care of our own Chris Reynolds:

http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/the-simplest-model-of-sea-ice-growth.html
« Last Edit: January 28, 2016, 08:21:17 PM by jdallen »
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sedziobs

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #316 on: January 28, 2016, 08:24:19 PM »
Freezing degree days provide the basis for Chris Reynolds' slow transition hypothesis:

http://dosbat.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-slow-transition-thickness-growth.html

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #317 on: January 29, 2016, 11:36:05 AM »
As Espen reported elsewhere, and whether as a result of the recent “anomalous heat” and/or the “anomalous Greenland surf forecast” the JAXA/ADS Arctic sea ice extent metric is once again at the lowest ever level for the date:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/01/more-heat-heading-for-north-pole/#comment-213303
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #318 on: January 29, 2016, 05:30:11 PM »
As Espen reported elsewhere, and whether as a result of the recent “anomalous heat” and/or the “anomalous Greenland surf forecast” the JAXA/ADS Arctic sea ice extent metric is once again at the lowest ever level for the date...
The Arctic is in the teeth of that heat and surf as was predicted and the numbers reflect it. I was going to say GFS shows some relief in a few days which would permit extent to climb again, but saw that relief was over the CAB proper.  Cold over the basin is good for thickening but doesn't add a lot to area and extent. The areas which most need cold to increase extent - particularly the Bering , Barents and Greenland seas - are all still predicted to be under a torch for the foreseeable future.

With that heat, it would be no surprise to me if we found "Surf's Up!" In those peripheral seas as well.

My confidence is growing that we will see a new "min-max".
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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #319 on: January 29, 2016, 10:20:49 PM »
The Arctic is in the teeth of that heat and surf as was predicted and the numbers reflect it. I was going to say GFS shows some relief in a few days which would permit extent to climb again, but saw that relief was over the CAB proper.  Cold over the basin is good for thickening but doesn't add a lot to area and extent. The areas which most need cold to increase extent - particularly the Bering , Barents and Greenland seas - are all still predicted to be under a torch for the foreseeable future.

Indeed, JD. I noted the same thing yesterday. It seems that those northerly winds in the Bering Strait are having a bit of an effect with SIA there going up (and winds are forecasted to continue):



But the CAB, Barentsz and Greenland Sea (no export) are holding the fort:



Quote
My confidence is growing that we will see a new "min-max".

Well, last year the record low max for JAXA SIE was reached two weeks and a half from now, but for today's date 2016 is still 147K lower than 2015. So, it's definitely becoming more possible. Exciting. For the time being we have CT Global SIA to keep us distracted.

Man, just two-three more months and it all starts again... 8)
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #320 on: January 30, 2016, 06:01:11 AM »
I did a bit of tinkering with the NSDIC extent data from 1979 to 2014.

I looked at the difference in extent between 1/30 and the Max for each year.

Here's what I got.

The average increase in extent from this date to max is 935,000 KM2
The standard deviation of extent increase is 232,000 KM2
The various inflections are..
+2 SD   1,300,000
+1 SD   1,168,000
Avg         935,000
-1SD       703,000
-2SD       471,000


(Edit - I need to re-work my numbers).

We have a high probability of a max between 13.5 and 14 million KM2.

If we have a bad melt year = 11.5 million KM2 as in 2012 (iirc...) - we could end up with a minimum around 2.5 million KM2.

If we fall on the low side on max and maximum melt on the minimum, it gets quite a bit worse.

Max of about 13.7 million.

Melt of 11.7 million (equivalent to 2012)

Final 2016 minimum of ~2.0 million KM2 extent. 

Those numbers are currently in play.

You heard it here first.

Not our sub 1,000,000 "ice free" arctic, but hopefully (if it happens) a whack off the side of the heads of our leaders sufficient that they start paying attention.

« Last Edit: January 30, 2016, 06:34:52 AM by jdallen »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #321 on: January 30, 2016, 11:04:44 AM »
CT area has belatedly joined JAXA/ADS extent in the "lowest ever for the date" category:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/01/more-heat-heading-for-north-pole/#comment-213310

The race with 2006/10/11 is currently quite close though.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #322 on: January 30, 2016, 02:24:34 PM »
It is interesting that the leveling off of sea ice growth occurs at the same point of the freeze season?

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #323 on: January 30, 2016, 04:43:11 PM »
After 07' they looked into the recurrence of the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic. They found a 10 to 20 yr period in the phenomena with the two prior to 07' favouring a 10yr period.

Now if we haven't totally goosed the climate that could mean melt season of 2017 is the earliest it could be expected to return?

Should we suffer a sub 3 million min this year then that would leave us in a pretty poor position to face the possible return of the perfect melt storm in 2017 wouldn't you think?
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ktonine

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #324 on: January 30, 2016, 07:04:26 PM »
Shared Humanity writes: "It is interesting that the leveling off of sea ice growth occurs at the same point of the freeze season?"

Nope, just sunrise and sunset.  The annual solar cycle. I.e., Barrow, at 71.2N,  didn't see the sun for two months - it only reappeared on January 23rd - for an hour.  It's up to 4 hours per day now in Barrow.  The long winter arctic night is slowly ending and the sun making its reappearance. 


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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #325 on: January 30, 2016, 07:47:41 PM »
Shared Humanity writes: "It is interesting that the leveling off of sea ice growth occurs at the same point of the freeze season?"

Nope, just sunrise and sunset.  The annual solar cycle. I.e., Barrow, at 71.2N,  didn't see the sun for two months - it only reappeared on January 23rd - for an hour.  It's up to 4 hours per day now in Barrow.  The long winter arctic night is slowly ending and the sun making its reappearance.

I assume Shared Humanity was referring to 2006, 2010, 2011, and 2016 all levelling off during approx last 10 days as shown on graph posted by Jim Hunt. Other years don't generally show that pattern.

Just co-incidence? The years were selected as lowest at this time and perhaps that makes them likely to have got to there by weather causing a level patch because the alternative of a fairly steep rise to this point would mean they were exceptionally low several days ago and that is unlikely?

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #326 on: January 30, 2016, 07:57:36 PM »


Considering that the Arctic temps were well above normal during the last 3 or 4 days of 2015, we now have had in excess of 30 consecutive days with temps in excess of 5o C above the long term average.  This must have some eventual impact on the final maximums of area, extent and volume.  How much....I don't have a clue!!
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #327 on: January 30, 2016, 08:31:26 PM »

Considering that the Arctic temps were well above normal during the last 3 or 4 days of 2015, we now have had in excess of 30 consecutive days with temps in excess of 5o C above the long term average.  This must have some eventual impact on the final maximums of area, extent and volume.  How much....I don't have a clue!!
I think it's all about FDD's - freezing degree days, OL.  We're short a bunch of them, this year.

The higher temperatures mean a much lower gradient between air and water, thus less heat flow.  In net, there is a whole bunch of heat left over from last year still in the water.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #328 on: January 30, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »
Shared Humanity writes: "It is interesting that the leveling off of sea ice growth occurs at the same point of the freeze season?"

Nope, just sunrise and sunset.  The annual solar cycle. I.e., Barrow, at 71.2N,  didn't see the sun for two months - it only reappeared on January 23rd - for an hour.  It's up to 4 hours per day now in Barrow.  The long winter arctic night is slowly ending and the sun making its reappearance.

I assume Shared Humanity was referring to 2006, 2010, 2011, and 2016 all levelling off during approx last 10 days as shown on graph posted by Jim Hunt. Other years don't generally show that pattern.

Just co-incidence? The years were selected as lowest at this time and perhaps that makes them likely to have got to there by weather causing a level patch because the alternative of a fairly steep rise to this point would mean they were exceptionally low several days ago and that is unlikely?

Thanks. That's what I meant.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #329 on: January 30, 2016, 11:01:03 PM »
Shared Humanity writes: "It is interesting that the leveling off of sea ice growth occurs at the same point of the freeze season?"

Nope, just sunrise and sunset.  The annual solar cycle. I.e., Barrow, at 71.2N,  didn't see the sun for two months - it only reappeared on January 23rd - for an hour.  It's up to 4 hours per day now in Barrow.  The long winter arctic night is slowly ending and the sun making its reappearance.

I assume Shared Humanity was referring to 2006, 2010, 2011, and 2016 all levelling off during approx last 10 days as shown on graph posted by Jim Hunt. Other years don't generally show that pattern.

Just co-incidence? The years were selected as lowest at this time and perhaps that makes them likely to have got to there by weather causing a level patch because the alternative of a fairly steep rise to this point would mean they were exceptionally low several days ago and that is unlikely?

This is not all that  surprising as most of the enclosed seas are now full and have no room left  for further increases. Only the Barents, Bering and Sea of Okhotsk have significant open water boundaries, and this is where most of the growth in January comes from.  Because of the geography  of these seas these boundaries increase during January  so the fluctuations after that  become larger. 

The second week of Jan and the last  week in May are the points when areas are most  similar across the years. It is not surprising that a couple of weeks with abnormally warm weather in these areas leads to little growth at this time
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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #330 on: January 31, 2016, 03:47:07 PM »
That smudge north of Svalbard is still there, five days in a row now, so maybe something is going on there after all:
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #331 on: January 31, 2016, 05:48:46 PM »
Neven, isn't the smudge at the approximate location where Climate Re-analyzer showed the path warm air was moving into the CAB, earlier this month?  Now, it looks like there is a warm air blob sitting over the spot.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #332 on: January 31, 2016, 07:01:43 PM »
That smudge north of Svalbard is still there, five days in a row now, so maybe something is going on there after all:

We have been watching a seemingly endless stream of powerful Atlantic lows driving huge masses of warm air into the polar regions. Surface temps hit freezing at the pole briefly. Wouldn't these storms tend to drive the unusually warm waters into and under the ice edge as well? Are we actually seeing ice melt in the middle of the freeze season?

Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #333 on: January 31, 2016, 07:39:51 PM »
We have been watching a seemingly endless stream of powerful Atlantic lows driving huge masses of warm air into the polar regions. Surface temps hit freezing at the pole briefly. Wouldn't these storms tend to drive the unusually warm waters into and under the ice edge as well? Are we actually seeing ice melt in the middle of the freeze season?

I can't imagine that's it. My first guess is divergence. How long till LANCE-MODIS gives us a glimpse?

I'm lazy, BTW. It's not really north of Svalbard, but rather Franz Josef Land.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #334 on: January 31, 2016, 08:09:30 PM »
MODIS already gives us a glimpse, using brightness temperature on band 31:

http://go.nasa.gov/1Q4bcT7

I can't see anything particularly out of the ordinary though?
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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #335 on: January 31, 2016, 09:04:58 PM »
MODIS already gives us a glimpse, using brightness temperature on band 31:

http://go.nasa.gov/1Q4bcT7

I can't see anything particularly out of the ordinary though?
Thanks, Jim. Of course, it's still possible that it's just an artefact on the UB SIC map. On the other hand, this animation of radar images seems to indicate that the zone in question is covered with FYI (also look at the Beaufort and MYI transport that will probably pick up a lot with a big, strong high forecast over the Central Arctic):
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #336 on: January 31, 2016, 09:27:31 PM »
As there are intensive discussions about the Arctic heat I think you might be interested in followed link as I have found: http://www.yr.no/sted/Norge/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistikk.html

Moreover, what should be of a concern right now is the latest runs from ECMWF is the distinct possibility of the return of RRR - Ridiculously Resilient Ridge... Just look at the ECMWF 12z run... The question is whether this is a temporary thing or a more dire and persistent pattern that will reemerge as ElNino now is fading..

Finally, there are some indices that the sea ice thickness in the CAB and also theLaptev Sea is stronger than it was during 2010-2012.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #337 on: January 31, 2016, 09:58:58 PM »
On the other hand, this animation of radar images seems to indicate that the zone in question is covered with FYI

Have you seen this relatively new ASCAT product from IFREMER?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#CERSAT

It seems to get updated in batches, so isn't exactly NRT, but is much more colourful than the standard ASCAT output!
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #338 on: January 31, 2016, 10:08:28 PM »


Considering that the Arctic temps were well above normal during the last 3 or 4 days of 2015, we now have had in excess of 30 consecutive days with temps in excess of 5o C above the long term average.  This must have some eventual impact on the final maximums of area, extent and volume.  How much....I don't have a clue!!

According to http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html we are about 500 degree days warmer than the average and for the last week the warmer than all years up to 2010.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #339 on: February 01, 2016, 08:11:35 AM »
<snippage> On the other hand, this animation of radar images seems to indicate that the zone in question is covered with FYI (also look at the Beaufort and MYI transport that will probably pick up a lot with a big, strong high forecast over the Central Arctic):

I've been watching the forecast for that high developing for a couple of days.  It's a good news/bad news, especially if it is very strong and generates a lot of circulation.

The end of the week shows the worst of the "spike" of heat disappearing and near-normal (2-3C above average) temperatures showing up over the CAB.

There's still a lot of heat around the edges however, with 10-15C anomalies being fairly continuous.

The downside - US Navy ARCc has Fram export going into overdrive and shipping out large quantities of the thicker 2M+ ice.  The model suggests some push of older ice into the Beaufort as well, but its not as dramatic.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif



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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #340 on: February 01, 2016, 10:24:57 AM »
Have you seen this relatively new ASCAT product from IFREMER?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#CERSAT

It seems to get updated in batches, so isn't exactly NRT, but is much more colourful than the standard ASCAT output!
I haven't seen that yet, no. Definitely looks more colourful.  :)
Too bad there is no way to compare to previous years (or is there?).

According to http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html we are about 500 degree days warmer than the average and for the last week the warmer than all years up to 2010.
Thanks for this, Andy, just what I needed to fill up a hole on the ASIG's Daily Graph's page. I was aware of Slater's excellent website (there are already a couple of graphs on the ASIG), but somehow I had overlooked this excellent FDD graph. I've added all those graphs to the bottom of the ASIG Daily Graph's Page.

I've also added a link at the top to your Resources, Jim. I can't believe I didn't do that earlier. Sorry about that.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2016, 10:38:51 AM by Neven »
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RunningChristo

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #341 on: February 01, 2016, 11:18:35 AM »
Average temps. at Longyearbyen for January 2016: +11.5 C Above normal. I assume these huge positive anomalies got to affect the iceformation even north and northeast of Svalbard...
This is the 62. consecutive month above normal...

Even the most ignorant denialist got to consider this as a sign of a warmer era.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2016, 11:35:24 AM by RunningChristo »
My fancy for ice & glaciers started in 1995:-).

Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #342 on: February 01, 2016, 01:41:03 PM »
Average temps. at Longyearbyen for January 2016: +11.5 C Above normal. I assume these huge positive anomalies got to affect the iceformation even north and northeast of Svalbard...
This is the 62. consecutive month above normal...

Even the most ignorant denialist got to consider this as a sign of a warmer era.

Indeed, in 2006 it was even more (12.5 °C above normal), which explains why 2006 and 2015 look rather similar:

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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #343 on: February 01, 2016, 01:48:31 PM »
<snippage> On the other hand, this animation of radar images seems to indicate that the zone in question is covered with FYI (also look at the Beaufort and MYI transport that will probably pick up a lot with a big, strong high forecast over the Central Arctic):

I've been watching the forecast for that high developing for a couple of days.  It's a good news/bad news, especially if it is very strong and generates a lot of circulation.

The end of the week shows the worst of the "spike" of heat disappearing and near-normal (2-3C above average) temperatures showing up over the CAB.

There's still a lot of heat around the edges however, with 10-15C anomalies being fairly continuous.

The downside - US Navy ARCc has Fram export going into overdrive and shipping out large quantities of the thicker 2M+ ice.  The model suggests some push of older ice into the Beaufort as well, but its not as dramatic.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif
So, SIA/SIE in the Greenland Sea, which is low at the moment, will probably go up. And if the cold anomaly comes about in the Sea of Okhotsk (and perhaps part of Bering), trend lines may shoot up there too. But will it be enough to prevent a new record max?
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sedziobs

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #344 on: February 01, 2016, 04:30:46 PM »
I've also added a link at the top to your Resources, Jim. I can't believe I didn't do that earlier. Sorry about that.
They were indeed already linked at the top left of the page.  I have used that link on many occasions.  So now Jim's resources are listed twice, which is not such a bad thing considering they are great resources! 

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #345 on: February 01, 2016, 04:46:57 PM »
just a pity that those data are not updated anymore, i check them each day LOL, so muched liked those graphs

https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/sea-ice-area

however to keep things up to date i started to make my own stats.

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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #346 on: February 01, 2016, 06:05:58 PM »
I've also added a link at the top to your Resources, Jim. I can't believe I didn't do that earlier. Sorry about that.
They were indeed already linked at the top left of the page.  I have used that link on many occasions.  So now Jim's resources are listed twice, which is not such a bad thing considering they are great resources!

 :D :D :D

So I did put in a link after all! God, I'm good (except for my memory, that is)!
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #347 on: February 01, 2016, 07:47:28 PM »
So I did put in a link after all! God, I'm good (except for my memory, that is)!

Thanks 2 million Neven!

I figure this video from the start of the freezing season is of general interest, so please forgive the cross posting from the R/V Sikuliaq thread:


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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #348 on: February 01, 2016, 08:23:08 PM »
<snippage> On the other hand, this animation of radar images seems to indicate that the zone in question is covered with FYI (also look at the Beaufort and MYI transport that will probably pick up a lot with a big, strong high forecast over the Central Arctic):

I've been watching the forecast for that high developing for a couple of days.  It's a good news/bad news, especially if it is very strong and generates a lot of circulation.

The end of the week shows the worst of the "spike" of heat disappearing and near-normal (2-3C above average) temperatures showing up over the CAB.

There's still a lot of heat around the edges however, with 10-15C anomalies being fairly continuous.

The downside - US Navy ARCc has Fram export going into overdrive and shipping out large quantities of the thicker 2M+ ice.  The model suggests some push of older ice into the Beaufort as well, but its not as dramatic.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif
So, SIA/SIE in the Greenland Sea, which is low at the moment, will probably go up. And if the cold anomaly comes about in the Sea of Okhotsk (and perhaps part of Bering), trend lines may shoot up there too. But will it be enough to prevent a new record max?
Okhotsk appears to be the key target of cold outflow out of the CAB.  Over all, I do expect to see a sharp uptick in coverage.   Not so much the Bering, I think.  I see no relief for the Barents, Kara and nearby CAB.

I'm ambivalent about declaring that we will see a new min-max.  The probability range for further extent increase easily encompasses the Max sailing well past 2015. However, just the high possibility - better than 50% I think - of a new low max causes one to sit up and take notice.

I think the degree days are going to be the story. I don't think there is enough time for heat export to catch up before we see enough insulation at high latitude to offset it.  QED, late cold, even extensive in the eastern basin, Laptev, ESS and parts of the Chukchi will not provide enough thickening for ice to get much past 2M, *if* *that*.

I suspect we will see the western Kara and Barents clear very rapidly and early in the season. If we have early melt ponds, it cold be very serious, as I think even if extent recovers, the ice will be weaker than last year.

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Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #349 on: February 01, 2016, 09:06:32 PM »
just a pity that those data are not updated anymore, i check them each day LOL, so muched liked those graphs

https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/sea-ice-area

however to keep things up to date i started to make my own stats.

Just been busy with quite a bit of heavy duty personal stuff lately. I still maintain all kinds of volume, extent, area, and temperature numbers; I just haven't updated some of the graphs in a while. However, now that melt season is nearly upon us, however--and possibly a very interesting one at that--and now that my personal issues have been (mostly) resolved, and now that several people have goaded me into catching back up, I'll begin updating again. As I just now did. :)