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Cid_Yama

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #950 on: March 18, 2017, 10:16:36 AM »


Can you just provide me with century long statistics on their +/- error rate please?  I have no interest in happenstance at all.
This type of manufactured doubt is like a cancer that has infected our society, and it shouldn't be allowed to spread. Reading it here makes me furious.

You cannot just brush off two research papers with a single inane sentence and expect to be taken seriously. The papers have already been peer-reviewed and published, they speak for themselves. You're the one that made the claim, the onus is on you to show us how they're "happenstance".

It is painfully obvious that you do not know how a computer model of even the most simple of things actually works.

Does this guy only attack "climate" models? What about the thousands of other models that we use on a daily basis? Are they happenstance when right too? Disgusting.

+1

Jim Williams

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #951 on: March 18, 2017, 01:30:17 PM »


Can you just provide me with century long statistics on their +/- error rate please?  I have no interest in happenstance at all.
This type of manufactured doubt is like a cancer that has infected our society, and it shouldn't be allowed to spread. Reading it here makes me furious.

You cannot just brush off two research papers with a single inane sentence and expect to be taken seriously. The papers have already been peer-reviewed and published, they speak for themselves. You're the one that made the claim, the onus is on you to show us how they're "happenstance".

It is painfully obvious that you do not know how a computer model of even the most simple of things actually works.

Does this guy only attack "climate" models? What about the thousands of other models that we use on a daily basis? Are they happenstance when right too? Disgusting.
The weather reports are getting quite strongly validated and have been demonstrated to work fairly well to about 10 days now.  I see no EVIDENCE that the GCM can make any better prediction -- and actually have never seen any evidence they can even do 10 days.

If you have such evidence then please present it over in the GCM validation thread under SCIENCE.

Chuck Yokota

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #952 on: March 18, 2017, 10:37:38 PM »
The weather reports are getting quite strongly validated and have been demonstrated to work fairly well to about 10 days now.  I see no EVIDENCE that the GCM can make any better prediction -- and actually have never seen any evidence they can even do 10 days.

If you have such evidence then please present it over in the GCM validation thread under SCIENCE.

Your statement he equivalent of saying, "I see no EVIDENCE that your automobile can wash clothes any cleaner than my washing machine." You demonstrate that you do not understand the purposes and uses of climate models. They are not intended to make weather predictions 10 days in advance any more than an automobile is intended to wash laundry.

Pmt111500

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #953 on: March 19, 2017, 07:00:17 PM »
Does someone have this sort of image of 2012? Is there a service somewhere still up nd running for making these? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Asian_heat_wave#/media/File%3ATemperature_anomalies_2007.gif
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crandles

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #954 on: March 19, 2017, 08:23:03 PM »

Pmt111500

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #955 on: March 20, 2017, 03:43:48 AM »
Thanks Crandles. The base periods are different but I think that's ok.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 04:08:39 AM by Pmt111500 »
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seaicesailor

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #956 on: March 21, 2017, 11:48:30 PM »
I have a really stupid question from a long time ago and it is, if in Alaska in particular, the warming is say three or four times or more than average global due to Arctic amplification, the impact on environment must be brutally obvious... in half a a decade (not two generations) then why it keeps such a heavy Republican place in majority?
All respect to any individual from Alaska.
Neven feel free to move this elsewhere, just wanted to let the question out.

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #957 on: March 22, 2017, 12:06:52 AM »
I have a really stupid question from a long time ago and it is, if in Alaska in particular, the warming is say three or four times or more than average global due to Arctic amplification, the impact on environment must be brutally obvious... in half a a decade (not two generations) then why it keeps such a heavy Republican place in majority?
All respect to any individual from Alaska.
Neven feel free to move this elsewhere, just wanted to let the question out.

I spent several weeks in Alaska last fall, much of it talking to--well, mostly listening to--residents tell me how climate change has really impacted their state. Even the most hard-core politically conservative types accepted it as a fact. They lived it; they knew it. They saw it in the lack of snow; they saw it in the migration of species; they saw it in longer summers and shorter winters; they saw it in the thousands of square miles of "drunken forests", trees leaning at odd angles as the not-so-permafrost below them thawed. They saw it in crumbling cliffs, and rising sea levels, and disappearing sea ice, and wildly changed fishing/hunting patterns. And on and on. And so i asked the same question you did, and the answer was generally along the lines of: why would believing something they could see with their own eyes mean they couldn't be Republicans? They love their fossil fuels as much as any GOP member. They love their guns; they love their version of "small government". They just thought their Party was silly to ignore the obvious, but that wasn't enough to drive them away...

Jim Hunt

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #958 on: March 22, 2017, 01:19:47 AM »
They just thought their Party was silly to ignore the obvious, but that wasn't enough to drive them away...


Facts are not enough Jim?

http://AFWetware.org/2017/03/21/the-problem-with-facts/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

epiphyte

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #959 on: March 22, 2017, 05:10:51 AM »
I have a really stupid question from a long time ago and it is, if in Alaska in particular, the warming is say three or four times or more than average global due to Arctic amplification, the impact on environment must be brutally obvious... in half a a decade (not two generations) then why it keeps such a heavy Republican place in majority?
All respect to any individual from Alaska.
Neven feel free to move this elsewhere, just wanted to let the question out.

I spent several weeks in Alaska last fall, much of it talking to--well, mostly listening to--residents tell me how climate change has really impacted their state. Even the most hard-core politically conservative types accepted it as a fact. They lived it; they knew it. They saw it in the lack of snow; they saw it in the migration of species; they saw it in longer summers and shorter winters; they saw it in the thousands of square miles of "drunken forests", trees leaning at odd angles as the not-so-permafrost below them thawed. They saw it in crumbling cliffs, and rising sea levels, and disappearing sea ice, and wildly changed fishing/hunting patterns. And on and on. And so i asked the same question you did, and the answer was generally along the lines of: why would believing something they could see with their own eyes mean they couldn't be Republicans? They love their fossil fuels as much as any GOP member. They love their guns; they love their version of "small government". They just thought their Party was silly to ignore the obvious, but that wasn't enough to drive them away...

A year or so ago I spent a few hours sitting on a plane next to a retired guy from B.C. He spent much of the trip lamenting about the sorry state of the snow cover and how it was just a matter of time before there would no longer be sufficient spring melt to allow the salmon to spawn. His opinion of the Alaskan political climate was that the fossil-fuel bribe that every AK taxpayer gets, in cash, every year, is possibly hindering their ability to acknowledge what is for many of them an existential crisis...


seaicesailor

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #960 on: March 22, 2017, 12:30:22 PM »
Thank you Jim and epiphyte
They love their fossil fuels as much as any GOP member. They love their guns; they love their version of "small government". They just thought their Party was silly to ignore the obvious, but that wasn't enough to drive them away...
I think this explanation makes a lot of sense. Thanks

Layman

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #961 on: March 27, 2017, 12:27:16 PM »
Hello.

Recently I have come across some fairly alarming information about the rapid melting of the Arctic and release of Methane etc etc mass extinction etc etc. Whilst I had heard about this before (having been paying attention to what scientists have been saying about Climate Change for the past 17 years), the timescale of the suggested apocalypse is somewhat shorter than previously imagined, and the probability of stopping it once it begins appears to be about 0.0%.

So my question is, how accurate is the suggestion that within a decade we will see an ice-free Arctic and the release of cataclysmic amounts of Methane into the atmosphere?

Also, in relation to Geoengineering, aside from the 10,000 wind pumps, could mirrors be constructed to help reduce melting? Kind of like the Space Mirrors but on the Arctic instead of in Space. Being a person with no specialized knowledge, I wouldn't know how feasible or useful this would be, but it seems like everything possible has to be done to stop the melting.

Sorry if either of both of these have been addressed already.

Neven

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #962 on: March 27, 2017, 12:47:15 PM »
Hello, Layman, and welcome to the ASIF. Your profile has been released for direct commenting.

Hello.

Recently I have come across some fairly alarming information about the rapid melting of the Arctic and release of Methane etc etc mass extinction etc etc. Whilst I had heard about this before (having been paying attention to what scientists have been saying about Climate Change for the past 17 years), the timescale of the suggested apocalypse is somewhat shorter than previously imagined, and the probability of stopping it once it begins appears to be about 0.0%.

So my question is, how accurate is the suggestion that within a decade we will see an ice-free Arctic and the release of cataclysmic amounts of Methane into the atmosphere?

If the suggestion comes from Guy McPherson or the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, I wouldn't put too much trust in it. That doesn't mean this isn't a problem, but it's probably not as acute as the aforementioned people suggest. The answer lies somewhere between them and (too) conservative science, is my guess.

For more information, there are several threads on this issue on the Permafrost board.
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Layman

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #963 on: March 27, 2017, 01:15:24 PM »
Hello, Layman, and welcome to the ASIF. Your profile has been released for direct commenting.



If the suggestion comes from Guy McPherson or the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, I wouldn't put too much trust in it. That doesn't mean this isn't a problem, but it's probably not as acute as the aforementioned people suggest. The answer lies somewhere between them and (too) conservative science, is my guess.

For more information, there are several threads on this issue on the Permafrost board.


Thanks Neven,

I perused that board a little, but it seemed a bit technical for a man like me.

I don't take the likes of Guy McPherson too seriously, but it is difficult to ascertain how serious the threat currently is. For the most part the world appears to be moving in the right direction with CO2, albeit decades too late, but this CH4 business seems to eclipse that.


ktonine

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #964 on: March 27, 2017, 01:50:41 PM »
So my question is, how accurate is the suggestion that within a decade we will see an ice-free Arctic and the release of cataclysmic amounts of Methane into the atmosphere?

These are two distinct questions.   #1 depends on your definition of 'ice-free' - Wieslav Maslowski's famous prediction of a virtually sea ice-free arctic by 2016 +/- 3 yrs was based on an 80% reduction in  volume.  Since then most use sea-ice extent of <1 Mkm^2.  In either case remember we're talking sea ice; Greenland's ice sheets aren't going away anytime soon.

The 2nd question has a lot of people worried, but not necessarily the experts.  You may wish to read David Archer's RealClimate post from 2012 "Much Ado About Methane".  I don't know if there's been any real update since then.

misfratz

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #965 on: March 27, 2017, 03:18:47 PM »
Also, in relation to Geoengineering, aside from the 10,000 wind pumps, could mirrors be constructed to help reduce melting? Kind of like the Space Mirrors but on the Arctic instead of in Space. Being a person with no specialized knowledge, I wouldn't know how feasible or useful this would be, but it seems like everything possible has to be done to stop the melting.
For the cost and effort of manufacturing, installing and maintaining ground-based mirrors in the Arctic you could do a lot more good by manufacturing, installing and maintaining solar electricity systems.

This is pretty much the answer to every proposed geoengineering fix.

Even once we've reached zero carbon energy production you would probably still do more good installing more solar electricity capacity and then linking it up to some gizmo that would scrub carbon dioxide from the air.

mati

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #966 on: March 27, 2017, 04:08:43 PM »
Even once we've reached zero carbon energy production you would probably still do more good installing more solar electricity capacity and then linking it up to some gizmo that would scrub carbon dioxide from the air.
excess electricty could be used to:

create methane or methanol (for which we have a good distribution system)

https://www.pipeline-conference.com/abstracts/german-turnaround-storing-excess-electricity-renewable-gas-gas-grid

https://phys.org/news/2016-01-carbon-dioxide-captured-air-methanol.html

or elemental carbon (which can be buryed)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosch_reaction



and so it goes

Tigertown

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #967 on: March 27, 2017, 04:38:44 PM »
All our lady friends might prefer that we make diamonds from the carbon. ;)
Pile upon pile of them. Millions, no billions of them.

mati

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #968 on: March 27, 2017, 04:59:38 PM »
All our lady friends might prefer that we make diamonds from the carbon. ;)
Pile upon pile of them. Millions, no billions of them.
If we sink the carbon in the subduction zones, this will work :O, may take a while tho...
and so it goes

crandles

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #969 on: March 27, 2017, 05:13:42 PM »
All our lady friends might prefer that we make diamonds from the carbon. ;)
Pile upon pile of them. Millions, no billions of them.

If they became cheap because of excess supply, would they still want them?  ;)

oren

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #970 on: March 27, 2017, 05:27:26 PM »
Layman, seeing an ice-free arctic within 10 years is high probability event (IMHO).
Cataclysmic release of methane - improbable (IMHO). Yes the arctic ocean will warm in the summer, and yes this will have a big effect, but not the immediate end of the world.
Over time, the feedback effects from methane clathrate release, permafrost methane and CO2 release, and loss of albedo with the loss of summer sea ice, will all bring about increased warming beyond that guaranteed by human emissions. But I can't see this as one big bang in some very near timeframe.

Tigertown

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #971 on: March 27, 2017, 05:34:13 PM »
All our lady friends might prefer that we make diamonds from the carbon. ;)
Pile upon pile of them. Millions, no billions of them.

If they became cheap because of excess supply, would they still want them?  ;)
Good point, and you are probably right.
There is an excess supply already, owned by the mining companies. They don't release them to the market, because as you said, they would be worth very little.
Seriously though, there are a couple of methods to make real diamonds in a lab, not talking about the fake ones, like cubic zirconia. I doubt it to be a very efficient carbon sink though, which is too bad.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #972 on: March 27, 2017, 07:17:13 PM »

Best way to get rid of the carbon is to turn more of the oceans into thermally stratified anoxic basins. Then the carbon will get rapidly absorbed into sediments and turn back into oil and gas.

We seem well on the way to completing step one. Only another few 10s of millions of years for the second step.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #973 on: March 27, 2017, 09:14:43 PM »
Rox,
I wish you'd put "Best" within quotation marks, or even replaced it with "A geologically proven".

I've got the time, do you?   :)

(In high school I was told the earth was 3.5 billion years old and I finished university when it was deemed to be 4.5.  [It's now 4.54.]  My father went to college when many said it was only 2.5 or 3 and my grandfather was among those who 'settled' the Earth's age [that is, calmed down the rapidly increasing age] as part of the "Committee for the Determination of Geologic Time")
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #974 on: March 27, 2017, 09:36:10 PM »
All our lady friends might prefer that we make diamonds from the carbon. ;)
Pile upon pile of them. Millions, no billions of them.
A brilliant idea. But if we made them one million 5 Carat diamonds EACH (= 1 tonne Carbon / per lady) we would just about make a dent in one years CO2 emissions. 

Layman

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #975 on: March 28, 2017, 12:21:26 AM »
For the cost and effort of manufacturing, installing and maintaining ground-based mirrors in the Arctic you could do a lot more good by manufacturing, installing and maintaining solar electricity systems.

This is pretty much the answer to every proposed geoengineering fix.

Even once we've reached zero carbon energy production you would probably still do more good installing more solar electricity capacity and then linking it up to some gizmo that would scrub carbon dioxide from the air.

This reminds me of another question I have, will CST plants become more efficient in a hotter climate?

I guess it depends on the weather...

oren

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #976 on: March 28, 2017, 05:55:10 AM »
This reminds me of another question I have, will CST plants become more efficient in a hotter climate?

I guess it depends on the weather...
I don't think efficiency will improve. My intuition tells me the output is dependent on the difference between the solar heat achieved and the ambient temperature used to cool back the steam. Solar irradiation remains the same while temps rise, a recipe for less efficiency not more.

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #977 on: March 28, 2017, 06:37:18 AM »
All our lady friends might prefer that we make diamonds from the carbon. ;)
Pile upon pile of them. Millions, no billions of them.

If they became cheap because of excess supply, would they still want them?  ;)
Graphite is much easier.
Carbonates are easier still.
This space for Rent.

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #978 on: March 28, 2017, 12:25:59 PM »
All our lady friends might prefer that we make diamonds from the carbon. ;)
Pile upon pile of them. Millions, no billions of them.

If they became cheap because of excess supply, would they still want them?  ;)
Graphite is much easier.
Carbonates are easier still.

Here is a marble ring for you dear straight out of captured arctic CO2.... resulting to a smack on the head....
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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Layman

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #979 on: March 28, 2017, 12:42:30 PM »



The 2nd question has a lot of people worried, but not necessarily the experts.  You may wish to read David Archer's RealClimate post from 2012 "Much Ado About Methane".  I don't know if there's been any real update since then.


Thanks for that, puts things in perspective. It doesn't really improve my outlook though, I can see why the idea of a quick and sudden climate death is appealing to some people rather than the predicted slow and protracted one.

I think I'm suffering from a kind of Climate Related Depression after the summer we just had. 20 years ago, a normal heat wave consisted of 40C temperatures with 42-43 being extreme. Today, 45C heatwaves are normal with 47-48 being extreme. Another decade and 50C is going to be normal?

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #980 on: March 28, 2017, 01:11:29 PM »
I think those of us who have witnessed/survived an AGW extreme weather event can no longer enjoy the old way of viewing weather esp. when the same type of weather event is forecast for your area. I know this is all relative and we're neither of us in Africa or Southern India but it is still a real cost to the changes now occurring?

I'm sure folk where impacted by weather disasters before but we now experience them with the promise of more, and worse, to come!
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nicibiene

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #981 on: March 31, 2017, 02:45:57 PM »
Just an observation to discuss here-where might that spots of SO2 come from, last year weren´t there? Volcanism, other sources? Anaerobic microbes CH4 reactions in warming permafrost ground? Combination of both?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/03/20/1200Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=so2smass/orthographic=161.77,67.12,1821/loc=173.676,65.578





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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #982 on: March 31, 2017, 05:17:35 PM »
Just an observation to discuss here-where might that spots of SO2 come from, last year weren´t there? Volcanism, other sources? Anaerobic microbes CH4 reactions in warming permafrost ground? Combination of both?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/03/20/1200Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=so2smass/orthographic=161.77,67.12,1821/loc=173.676,65.578

Some bacteria metabolise SO4 to generate H2S. Once you are there it's relatively easy to get to SO2 with reaction with O2 by combustion, though I am not aware of any organic process that makes it.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2017, 04:47:50 AM by RoxTheGeologist »

Pmt111500

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #983 on: March 31, 2017, 08:14:53 PM »
Date of the 2016 image missing so not saying anything.
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nicibiene

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #984 on: April 01, 2017, 07:10:50 AM »
@Pmt111500 date the same like 2017, I just use the URL in my browser and alter the date/year. 😊

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/03/20/1200Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=so2smass/orthographic=161.77,67.12,1821/loc=173.676,65.578
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Pmt111500

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #985 on: April 01, 2017, 08:37:12 AM »
Ah, then maybe it's extra cold in there this spring? Or 2016 was extra warm? Then the Russian Federation would have supplied them with very cheap extra-sulfur coal? That almost looks like every mining op and small settlement would burn a bunch of that stuff? Compare to Petropavlovsk city on Kamtchatka.
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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #986 on: April 01, 2017, 11:17:27 AM »
@Pmt111500 date the same like 2017, I just use the URL in my browser and alter the date/year. 😊

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/03/20/1200Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=so2smass/orthographic=161.77,67.12,1821/loc=173.676,65.578
Doh, ffs [flat forehead syndrome], the time I've wasted clickng back through the months.
I thought coal burning too but couldn't find a map that showed that pattern of settlements, but it could be mining ops. small settlements and power stations as Pmt111500 suggests. Would bigger settlements have piped gas?
actually take a look at the main thread there's anomalous amounts of snow in the area, so I guess it's colder than normal too.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2017, 12:04:05 PM by johnm33 »

nicibiene

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #987 on: April 02, 2017, 09:57:15 AM »
I also clicked through the dates like a mad dog in the beginning, until I had a look at the bowser adress.  😁
At the moment there is no enormous cold there. Don't know if they are heating with coal, but I guess there are only very few people living there, and there are no other hard winter pictures to find with that SO2 spots.... really strange. I also watch the volcanism and earthquake activity... so we will see, if it is only some cheap coal fired there. 😁

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=133.81,62.06,1354/loc=172.309,64.267
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Cid_Yama

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #988 on: April 03, 2017, 02:37:45 AM »
Most of the towns and villages in Siberia have their own peat-fired power plant.  It has been the primary means of power generation in Siberia for the last hundred years.

The peat fires in Siberia were so bad mainly because the peat bogs were intentionally dried out to provide peat for power generation.

Because of the remoteness of most of these villages, peat-fired local power generation has remained the best option. 
« Last Edit: April 03, 2017, 02:49:03 AM by Cid_Yama »

Pmt111500

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #989 on: April 03, 2017, 07:23:32 AM »
Most of the towns and villages in Siberia have their own peat-fired power plant.  It has been the primary means of power generation in Siberia for the last hundred years.

The peat fires in Siberia were so bad mainly because the peat bogs were intentionally dried out to provide peat for power generation.

Because of the remoteness of most of these villages, peat-fired local power generation has remained the best option.

Extra-sulfur peat, then :o . Sulfur is one hard bit to even bacteria to metbolize and anaerobic(bacteria)s can't do oxygenation by default.
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

Cid_Yama

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #990 on: April 04, 2017, 01:06:11 AM »
Where have people been getting the current barometric charts of the Arctic?

dnem

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #991 on: April 04, 2017, 08:31:23 PM »
Where have people been getting the current barometric charts of the Arctic?


these?:
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.ARC-LEA.T2_anom-MSLP

Cid_Yama

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #992 on: April 05, 2017, 09:31:14 AM »
I found it, it's at Tropical Tidbits.


JimboOmega

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #993 on: April 05, 2017, 06:55:57 PM »
So a relatively simple question motivated by seeing some new ice form...

Do we know what day is breakeven for heat flux, counting only radiation, at various latitudes? Assume clear skies (though I'd be curious for cloudy too), and open water at 0C for albedo/blackbody purposes.

That is - if we only look at heat gained from the sun and heat lost via longwave to space (ignore atmospheric interaction, upwelling, currents, etc), what day of the solar year does this breakeven occur at various latitudes?

magnamentis

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #994 on: April 05, 2017, 10:43:18 PM »
So a relatively simple question motivated by seeing some new ice form...

Do we know what day is breakeven for heat flux, counting only radiation, at various latitudes? Assume clear skies (though I'd be curious for cloudy too), and open water at 0C for albedo/blackbody purposes.

That is - if we only look at heat gained from the sun and heat lost via longwave to space (ignore atmospheric interaction, upwelling, currents, etc), what day of the solar year does this breakeven occur at various latitudes?

very good question, would be interested to hear some enlightenment too, let's hope that someone knows and is willing to tell us :-)
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Jim Williams

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #995 on: April 05, 2017, 11:07:17 PM »
So a relatively simple question motivated by seeing some new ice form...

Do we know what day is breakeven for heat flux, counting only radiation, at various latitudes? Assume clear skies (though I'd be curious for cloudy too), and open water at 0C for albedo/blackbody purposes.

That is - if we only look at heat gained from the sun and heat lost via longwave to space (ignore atmospheric interaction, upwelling, currents, etc), what day of the solar year does this breakeven occur at various latitudes?

very good question, would be interested to hear some enlightenment too, let's hope that someone knows and is willing to tell us :-)
I went to talk to Google, but couldn't seem to formulate the correct question which incorporated both flux and radiation...

Having a nice table sure would be handy.


Pmt111500

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #996 on: April 06, 2017, 04:16:53 AM »
For the pole the break-even day for radiation is of course the equinox since the orbit, but this is still a good question considering lower latitudes.

Well maybe it's s day or two before equinox for the pole since the light scattering and bending properties of atmosphere but for blackbody. I guess the Moon could serve as a nuce example.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2017, 04:56:17 AM by Pmt111500 »
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TerryM

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #997 on: April 06, 2017, 04:30:59 AM »
For the pole the break-even day for radiation is of course the equinox since the orbit, but this is still a good question considering lower latitudes.


Are you sure?


Terry

Pmt111500

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #998 on: April 06, 2017, 04:36:11 AM »
For the pole the break-even day for radiation is of course the equinox since the orbit, but this is still a good question considering lower latitudes.


Are you sure?


Terry
For blackbody, i can't see how constant sunlight could result to a cool surface. Atmosphere of course bends light as seen in sunset and sunrise.
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

Pmt111500

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Re: Stupid Questions :o
« Reply #999 on: April 06, 2017, 05:01:44 AM »
As there are some cuts to earth sciences in a country that relies it's science to be developed by immigrant scientists (well there are some natives too) the following stupid question might be in order. Could there be an instrument on the surface that could measure the ghg's in the atmospheric layers without relying to satellite observations for calibration?
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)