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Author Topic: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask  (Read 1031451 times)

magnamentis

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #900 on: March 13, 2017, 09:24:31 PM »
The simple answer is that the question is bad, because the halocline can only disappear when there is no ice, or a current appears where previously one didn't exist. Extreme storms may mix the upper 60 meters or so, but the salt increase of new forming ice will happen until no new ice forms, and the salt dilution of melting ice will happen until there is no ice to melt all year round, i.e. winter ice free Arctic Ocean as well.

Now, unless a massive current appears which flushes across the Arctic Ocean via input from the Atlantic Ocean, and I don't have any numbers on sverdrups or how many sverdrups go through all the ocean's currents each year, but to me that would seem to me quite impossible and so there will be winter sea ice for a long time.

Here are several maps depicting how deep the mixed layer (that is, the surface layer with identical characteristics throughout its entire depth) is throughout the year:
http://s1.postimg.org/f1qylntkv/Mixed_Layer_Depth.gif

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c7/Mixed_layer_depth.png

In the second one, the months are January and July. You can see that melting ice, most visible in the Antarctic, as well as summer heating, decreases the depth of the mixed layer.

Now, there is also the fact that we have sea ice, however thin, formed in the region between FJL and Svalbard, which according to HYCOM is over 34ppt saltiness. The main thing to note about the link is that the salinity rises in winter as brine leaks out of FYI forming and falls in summer as the FYI melts back into the Ocean. This will continue even after the first ice-free Arctic Ocean happens, as ice does not need ice to grow back on the scale of weather. This can be seen in the Baltic Sea, many northern rivers and lakes, and the Sea of Okhotsk.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsss_nowcast_anim365d.gif

while i thank you and appreciate your elaborations i want to state a few things as to your post:

a) there are no bad questions which is why they are "questions" from those how don't know to someone who might know

b) the answer is not simple for the uninitiated in that field, stating a fact that is known by experts as simple for everyone is condescending and keeps people from asking.

c) "a" and "b" especially appley in the stupid question thread which is exactly meant for people who are not
professionals or savvy in a specific field to ask ANY question without being bashed and calling out a question as bad is, to say it nicely, not so very nice IMNSHO :-)

this said i repeat that i find your contribution related to the question itself very helpful, thanks again, i learned something ;)

johnm33

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #901 on: March 14, 2017, 12:46:05 AM »
Darvince, the question was not about the halocline, what I think i'm seeing is an increased flow of Atlantic waters penetrating past FJL/NZ into Laptev before it's energy is spent. Plus it appears to accelerate around the new/full moon peak tide min/max. Assuming that continues and as above the ice is practically liquid, and thus the easiest fraction to flush, how fast could the ice be lost? well i did a boe oom calc. and was surprised by the result. Actually shocked, so wondered if anyone else had any idea.

Cid_Yama

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #902 on: March 14, 2017, 02:54:09 AM »
This is as much ice as we are going to get.  Delusions are being spun up by those that don't want it to be so, but the March surprise is upon us.

The deniers on this other site I'm on are already trying to claim another 6 months of winter.
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slow wing

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #903 on: March 14, 2017, 03:14:43 AM »
This is as much ice as we are going to get.

Based on what? It's only mid-March. According to PIOMAS, ice volume typically grows into mid-April - so another month or so.


jdallen

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #904 on: March 14, 2017, 03:32:12 AM »
This is as much ice as we are going to get.

Based on what? It's only mid-March. According to PIOMAS, ice volume typically grows into mid-April - so another month or so.


I think Cid's - and my - point is, we're going to top out a little early, and possibly quite low - right around 20/21K KM3 for max volume.  I'm figuring things to end up at least 2K KM3 below the previous low volume record.
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slow wing

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #905 on: March 14, 2017, 04:41:55 AM »
OK, that's a different statement. Note however that last year, 2016, didn't top out early and last year also had anomalously high 80N+ temperatures at this time of year.

At the beginning of March this year was about 2K km^3 below 2016 - which topped out as the record min-max (~tied with 2011) - so, yes, it wouldn't be too surprising if we ended up around 2K km^3 below that.

Darvince

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #906 on: March 14, 2017, 05:36:02 AM »
Darvince, the question was not about the halocline, what I think i'm seeing is an increased flow of Atlantic waters penetrating past FJL/NZ into Laptev before it's energy is spent. Plus it appears to accelerate around the new/full moon peak tide min/max. Assuming that continues and as above the ice is practically liquid, and thus the easiest fraction to flush, how fast could the ice be lost? well i did a boe oom calc. and was surprised by the result. Actually shocked, so wondered if anyone else had any idea.
What was the result? I am suspecting 3 months but I don't have any idea how the calculation would go forth. Then I thought a bit more and suspected 5 years, just based on how far the ice that was originally just off FJL has traveled this winter, but tides are different and much faster ???


a) there are no bad questions which is why they are "questions" from those how don't know to someone who might know

b) the answer is not simple for the uninitiated in that field, stating a fact that is known by experts as simple for everyone is condescending and keeps people from asking.

c) "a" and "b" especially apply in the stupid question thread which is exactly meant for people who are not
professionals or savvy in a specific field to ask ANY question without being bashed and calling out a question as bad is, to say it nicely, not so very nice IMNSHO :-)
;D Yes, I did word the opening quite badly. And not defending myself, but more explaining reason for saying "bad" is that a better word could have been unanswerable, but the question had nothing to do with the halocline so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'll just say that it was quite tangential compared to the first question because I've been somewhat annoyed by the idea that an ice-free Arctic is a fixed state.

binntho

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #907 on: March 14, 2017, 07:40:04 AM »
I must admit I'm a bit confused when it comes to the halocline and the north-eastern branch of the Gulf Stream that stretches it's fingers all the way to the Arctic Ocean (The North Atlantic Drift).

Several years back I remember reading quite a bit about what drives the Gulf Stream circulation and it's North-Eastern offshoot, and the best explanation I remember was along the lines of there being three main forcings, all of approximately equal importance:

1) Winds blowing mainly towards the North-East over the Atlantic Ocean.

2) Tidal pull from east to west shifts water over the Mid-Atlantic ridge, causing westward movement of deep water. I'm not sure if surface waters are affected, there's an amphidronic point west of Iceland with strong tidal waves moving eastward from there.

3) Cooling and sinking in the far north.

The wind forcing seems to be able to explain fully the main Gulf Stream circulation according to Wikipedia - i.e. it would still be there without the halocline. Wind forcing is also strong towards the North-East along the whole length of the North-Eastern branch of the current, exerting a significant pull.

I'm not so sure about the tidal forcings - perhaps they are insignificant when it comes to driving the Gulf Stream.

The halocline, according to Wikipedia, happens when water evaporates from the surface at mid latitudes, leaving the top layer warmer but saltier than underlying layers and potentially causing vertical instability. But further north, in the Arctic ocean, the reverse seems to be the case - the underlying layers are warmer and saltier than the surface layer, presumably because the warm ocean currents dives under a less saltier lens of cold waters?

The halocline as a driver of ocean currents, on the other hand, as I understand it, is when the ocean freezes, cooling and increasing the salinity of the surface waters, which eventually sink, pulling other surface waters towards the ice-forming region. This is different from point 3 above, where it's only the cooling that causes sinking, not changes in salinity.

Now I may completely have misunderstood the whole thing, hence the "stupid question". But as I understand it, the process of freezing pulls warm surface waters from the south and is at least a local driver of currents. This obviously only works during freezing season (the reverse should be true at other times), and should always pull the warm waters towards the ice edge.

So how will this change over time? If freezing-induced sinking is a pulling force, then the annual amount of pulling should be proportional to the volume of ice freezing? Or is surface freezing more important than thickening later? Is freezing-induced sinking not a positive feedback, in that there presumably is a border line where air temperatures can overcome surface heat, and as the surface warms up due to global warming, this border will shift northwards, pulling the warm waters along with it, delaying ther sinking?

If wind and cooling are the largest forces driving the Gulf Stream, should we be worried about a potential collapse as ocean ice retreats? (Melt-water runoff from Greenland is a different matter).

Now I'm aware that the Gulf Stream has collapsed before, causing the massive temperature swings that can be seen in Greenland ice cores (these cores btw do not measure global temperatures directly, only the surface temperatures of the evaporation zones where the falling snow originates). But these collapses were caused by events vastly bigger in scale than anything on our horizon.

To conclude my ramblings: My understanding of the Gulf Stream and the halocline tells me that a collapse in the Gulf Stream is not imminent, and also, that as sea ice retreats the warm surface waters will seek further and further north, both as a cause and effect.

But even with an all-year ice-free arctic, sinking will always take place due to cooling. Even if the oceans were both totally ice-free and totally salt free, the Gulf Stream would still bring excess warmth from mid latitudes towards the Arctic Ocean.
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Cid_Yama

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #908 on: March 14, 2017, 07:57:28 AM »
Actually I'm betting on less than 20 due to us seeing ice that is not there.  Ice reading as solid when it is 'rotten' full of holes and easily broken up.  And I don't see that ice making it to the end of March considering the conditions the Arctic is about to face.

I certainly don't expect any additional growth that isn't frazil or pancake ice.

As for the AMOC, new ice used to form on the southeastern coast of Greenland and the brine expulsion was a significant driver.  No more.

As for the Atlantic Water current, in submerges near Svalbard and heads toward the Laptev Sea warming sediments on the shelf there.

 

 
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 08:17:21 AM by Cid_Yama »
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Jim Williams

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #909 on: March 14, 2017, 01:36:37 PM »
Just supposing the ice was so smashed as to be practically liquid, and that every tide that flowed in from the north atlantic displaced ice or water from the upper layer of the arctic,[through CAA Nares, + Fram] how long would it take to flush the ice/top 2m.?

i think no-one can tell because it depends on too many unpredictable variables but then, i'm totally sure, that we shall be able to witness this happening and not so far out and we shall know.

it's not an english saying but it goes about like: it's happening while we're asking when it will happen :-) bad translation perhaps but should be comprehensible at least :-)
I think the English equivalent would be "Look out your window."

Jim Williams

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #910 on: March 14, 2017, 02:06:37 PM »
...
But even with an all-year ice-free arctic, sinking will always take place due to cooling. Even if the oceans were both totally ice-free and totally salt free, the Gulf Stream would still bring excess warmth from mid latitudes towards the Arctic Ocean.

I think the flies in the ointment here are Asia and North America.  Land both warms and cools more rapidly than water.  So, what the Gulf Stream giveth Asia taketh away.

On the scale of a couple thousand years you get extreme warming.  On the scale of 10s of thousands of years you get extreme cooling.  On the scale of eons you get a wild flip-flop.

Jim Williams

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #911 on: March 14, 2017, 02:17:42 PM »
My stupid question of the day:  Are there any climate models out there that use system dynamics rather than trying to model a natural system for any length of time by pretending it is a linear vector space and using arrays of differential equations?

seaicesailor

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #912 on: March 14, 2017, 02:37:15 PM »
My stupid question of the day:  Are there any climate models out there that use system dynamics rather than trying to model a natural system for any length of time by pretending it is a linear vector space and using arrays of differential equations?
It is difficult to understand the question Jim, because I see both options you give as equivalent. An array of differential equations applied over a vectorial quantity ("linear"?) or several scalar and vectorial quantities, can be a mathematical model of a dynamical system, suitable for performing computations and developing predictions of the underlying dynamical system.

Jim Williams

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #913 on: March 14, 2017, 03:12:28 PM »
My stupid question of the day:  Are there any climate models out there that use system dynamics rather than trying to model a natural system for any length of time by pretending it is a linear vector space and using arrays of differential equations?
It is difficult to understand the question Jim, because I see both options you give as equivalent. An array of differential equations applied over a vectorial quantity ("linear"?) or several scalar and vectorial quantities, can be a mathematical model of a dynamical system, suitable for performing computations and developing predictions of the underlying dynamical system.

To oversimplify, I am interested in a model that represents information as sources and sinks, and the system as buckets.  In the extreme, the information would be represented as single photons, but that is clearly not computable with current hardware (unless you count the Universe as current hardware).

Fields are a pretty approximation when you are only guessing 10 days out.  They really suck bad over the long haul.  (There is nothing less real than a Real number.)


ktonine

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #914 on: March 14, 2017, 03:34:05 PM »
My stupid question of the day:  Are there any climate models out there that use system dynamics rather than trying to model a natural system for any length of time by pretending it is a linear vector space and using arrays of differential equations?
It is difficult to understand the question Jim, because I see both options you give as equivalent. An array of differential equations applied over a vectorial quantity ("linear"?) or several scalar and vectorial quantities, can be a mathematical model of a dynamical system, suitable for performing computations and developing predictions of the underlying dynamical system.

To oversimplify, I am interested in a model that represents information as sources and sinks, and the system as buckets.  In the extreme, the information would be represented as single photons, but that is clearly not computable with current hardware (unless you count the Universe as current hardware).

Fields are a pretty approximation when you are only guessing 10 days out.  They really suck bad over the long haul.  (There is nothing less real than a Real number.)

Per Wiki:
... model dynamics is formulated in terms of the hydrostatic primitive equations with a terrain following pressure vertical coordinate (h). The time discretization is an implicit two-time-level semi-Lagrangian scheme. The spatial discretization is a Galerkin grid-point formulation on an Arakawa C-grid in the horizontal (lat-lon) and an unstaggered vertical discretization. The horizontal mesh can be of uniform or variable resolution, and furthermore can be arbitrarily rotated, the vertical mesh is also variable. The explicit horizontal diffusion is -2 on all prognostic variables.

The operational GEM model is interfaced with a full complement of physical parametrizations, these currently include:

  • solar and infrared radiation interactive with water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone and clouds,
  • prediction of surface temperature over land with the force-restore method,
  • turbulence in the planetary boundary layer through vertical diffusion, diffusion coefficients based on stability and turbulent kinetic energy,
  • surface layer based on Monin-Obukhov similarity theory,
  • shallow convection scheme (non precipitating),
  • Kuo-type deep convection scheme (global forecast system),
  • Fritsch-Chappell type deep convection scheme (regional forecast system),
  • Sundqvist condensation scheme for stratiform precipitation,
  • gravity wave drag.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #915 on: March 14, 2017, 03:57:22 PM »
Darvince, the question was not about the halocline, what I think i'm seeing is an increased flow of Atlantic waters penetrating past FJL/NZ into Laptev before it's energy is spent. Plus it appears to accelerate around the new/full moon peak tide min/max. Assuming that continues and as above the ice is practically liquid, and thus the easiest fraction to flush, how fast could the ice be lost? well i did a boe oom calc. and was surprised by the result. Actually shocked, so wondered if anyone else had any idea.

The Atlantic water is thought to flow around the whole of the Arctic Nansen Basin beneath the polar mixed layer, circulating counter clockwise. A-Team showed that the edge of the ice through most of the summer corresponded with bathymetry. Warmer Atlantic water flows down the continental slope to form a layer starting at around 300m depth, Where the Atlantic water is at the surface, on the continental shelf, ice melts. Within the deeper basin the Atlantic water no longer affects the ice as it is too deep, unless the denser warm water remains on the surface; that requires a break down of the Halocline. The Halocline is refreshed by freshwater input from rivers and from melting ice.

Jim Williams

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #916 on: March 14, 2017, 04:22:47 PM »
My stupid question of the day:  Are there any climate models out there that use system dynamics rather than trying to model a natural system for any length of time by pretending it is a linear vector space and using arrays of differential equations?
It is difficult to understand the question Jim, because I see both options you give as equivalent. An array of differential equations applied over a vectorial quantity ("linear"?) or several scalar and vectorial quantities, can be a mathematical model of a dynamical system, suitable for performing computations and developing predictions of the underlying dynamical system.

To oversimplify, I am interested in a model that represents information as sources and sinks, and the system as buckets.  In the extreme, the information would be represented as single photons, but that is clearly not computable with current hardware (unless you count the Universe as current hardware).

Fields are a pretty approximation when you are only guessing 10 days out.  They really suck bad over the long haul.  (There is nothing less real than a Real number.)

Per Wiki:
... model dynamics is formulated in terms of the hydrostatic primitive equations with a terrain following pressure vertical coordinate (h). The time discretization is an implicit two-time-level semi-Lagrangian scheme. The spatial discretization is a Galerkin grid-point formulation on an Arakawa C-grid in the horizontal (lat-lon) and an unstaggered vertical discretization. The horizontal mesh can be of uniform or variable resolution, and furthermore can be arbitrarily rotated, the vertical mesh is also variable. The explicit horizontal diffusion is -2 on all prognostic variables.

The operational GEM model is interfaced with a full complement of physical parametrizations, these currently include:

  • solar and infrared radiation interactive with water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone and clouds,
  • prediction of surface temperature over land with the force-restore method,
  • turbulence in the planetary boundary layer through vertical diffusion, diffusion coefficients based on stability and turbulent kinetic energy,
  • surface layer based on Monin-Obukhov similarity theory,
  • shallow convection scheme (non precipitating),
  • Kuo-type deep convection scheme (global forecast system),
  • Fritsch-Chappell type deep convection scheme (regional forecast system),
  • Sundqvist condensation scheme for stratiform precipitation,
  • gravity wave drag.

I have zero interest in "model dynamics."  Your point?

ktonine

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #917 on: March 14, 2017, 04:29:46 PM »
My stupid question of the day:  Are there any climate models out there that use system dynamics rather than trying to model a natural system for any length of time by pretending it is a linear vector space and using arrays of differential equations?

I have zero interest in "model dynamics."  Your point?
I have zero interest in "model dynamics."  Your point?

Make up your mind.

oren

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #918 on: March 14, 2017, 04:59:32 PM »
Darvince, the question was not about the halocline, what I think i'm seeing is an increased flow of Atlantic waters penetrating past FJL/NZ into Laptev before it's energy is spent. Plus it appears to accelerate around the new/full moon peak tide min/max. Assuming that continues and as above the ice is practically liquid, and thus the easiest fraction to flush, how fast could the ice be lost? well i did a boe oom calc. and was surprised by the result. Actually shocked, so wondered if anyone else had any idea.

The Atlantic water is thought to flow around the whole of the Arctic Nansen Basin beneath the polar mixed layer, circulating counter clockwise. A-Team showed that the edge of the ice through most of the summer corresponded with bathymetry. Warmer Atlantic water flows down the continental slope to form a layer starting at around 300m depth, Where the Atlantic water is at the surface, on the continental shelf, ice melts. Within the deeper basin the Atlantic water no longer affects the ice as it is too deep, unless the denser warm water remains on the surface; that requires a break down of the Halocline. The Halocline is refreshed by freshwater input from rivers and from melting ice.
If I recall correctly, the deep Atlantic water affect basal melting of Zachariae/79N and Petermann glaciers (and maybe some others) as it flows out of the Arctic basin through Fram and Nares straits.

Jim Williams

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #919 on: March 14, 2017, 05:36:30 PM »
Let me phrase my stupid question a slightly different way.  What evidence do we have that we are using the right kind of mathematics for predicting what will happen in a discrete discontinuous system over a long period of time?  (Long being over about a month.)

johnm33

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #920 on: March 14, 2017, 05:40:42 PM »
"If I recall correctly, the deep Atlantic water affect basal melting of Zachariae/79N and Petermann glaciers (and maybe some others) as it flows out of the Arctic basin through Fram and Nares straits."
Surface signs of just that at Z/79N a few days ago?
http://go.nasa.gov/2mWogq5

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #921 on: March 14, 2017, 05:59:38 PM »
Let me phrase my stupid question a slightly different way.  What evidence do we have that we are using the right kind of mathematics for predicting what will happen in a discrete discontinuous system over a long period of time?  (Long being over about a month.)
Kinda rhetorical, Jim, but we don't. What we have is the output of the models themselves.

I really don't think the reduction of skill with time is a result of the math. I think it is a result of the inputs, their granularity, and our understanding of the system mechanics.
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Jim Williams

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #922 on: March 15, 2017, 01:42:04 PM »
Let me phrase my stupid question a slightly different way.  What evidence do we have that we are using the right kind of mathematics for predicting what will happen in a discrete discontinuous system over a long period of time?  (Long being over about a month.)
Kinda rhetorical, Jim, but we don't. What we have is the output of the models themselves.

I really don't think the reduction of skill with time is a result of the math. I think it is a result of the inputs, their granularity, and our understanding of the system mechanics.

I'll agree that right now the major error is our lack of data on the initial conditions, with lack of understanding of the mechanics coming in a close second, but it still seems to me that using a math which models temperature as a continuous "Real" variable rather than as billions of discrete changes will simply never be able to make accurate long range predictions.  Discrete Topology simply isn't the same math as continuous vector fields.  In particular, the group of Integers has all sorts of funky subgroups and other properties that only show up with very large numbers.


Pmt111500

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #923 on: March 15, 2017, 02:07:08 PM »
The very real 'melting degree days' variable would be nice to be able to calculate but the oceanic component of warmth entering the icy region of the planet makes this a pretty hard task... who knows what sort of thermo- and halocline breaking swirls develop and in what sort of atmospheric and oceanic weather... Edges of the pack are of course almost constanly attacked during melting season but what of the leads and polynyas of the pack...
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 02:18:14 PM by Pmt111500 »

seaicesailor

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #924 on: March 15, 2017, 02:40:25 PM »
Let me phrase my stupid question a slightly different way.  What evidence do we have that we are using the right kind of mathematics for predicting what will happen in a discrete discontinuous system over a long period of time?  (Long being over about a month.)
Kinda rhetorical, Jim, but we don't. What we have is the output of the models themselves.

I really don't think the reduction of skill with time is a result of the math. I think it is a result of the inputs, their granularity, and our understanding of the system mechanics.

I'll agree that right now the major error is our lack of data on the initial conditions, with lack of understanding of the mechanics coming in a close second, but it still seems to me that using a math which models temperature as a continuous "Real" variable rather than as billions of discrete changes will simply never be able to make accurate long range predictions.  Discrete Topology simply isn't the same math as continuous vector fields.  In particular, the group of Integers has all sorts of funky subgroups and other properties that only show up with very large numbers.
You must be a god if you want to abandon the thermodynamic equillibria assumptions  and try solve the underlying discrete quantum equations with 10^26 or more degrees of freedom... to end up getting similar results because the thermodynamics models have been working really well for centuries.
Do you know that in every breath you take there is a 99.99% probability of you taking at least one molecule of air that Caesar expelled when he said "et tu Brute"?
I think climate and weather models are well above the head of most of us here and I personally let specialists do their job and deliver their breakthroughs when they come with one.

DrTskoul

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #925 on: March 15, 2017, 03:34:38 PM »
Ok, here we go again with the models.  The macroscopic continuity of temperature is next on the disputed list.

Using statistical thermodynamics methods we have solved nuclear fission and nuclear explosion problems in the '60s.  I have accurately computed the diffusion coefficient of H2 in carbon nanotubes with a model before it was ever measured. Climate predictions are based on statistical average of an ensemble. Way better in predicting that than a long term weather prediction. 

I understand this is hard to grasp, but don't dispute everything you don't understand.

DrTskoul

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #926 on: March 15, 2017, 03:37:34 PM »
Predictable and unpredictable behavior

Quote
Statistics is remarkably predictable
The individual gas molecules are highly unpredictable, but the bulk properties of the gases are nevertheless very predictable thanks to physics. More specifically the laws of thermodynamics and the ideal gas law.

The bulk aspects of the gases are a result of the statistical properties of a vast number of particles. Statistics is surprisingly predictable even if the individual cases are not.

Jim Williams

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #927 on: March 15, 2017, 05:05:30 PM »
Let me phrase my stupid question a slightly different way.  What evidence do we have that we are using the right kind of mathematics for predicting what will happen in a discrete discontinuous system over a long period of time?  (Long being over about a month.)
Kinda rhetorical, Jim, but we don't. What we have is the output of the models themselves.

I really don't think the reduction of skill with time is a result of the math. I think it is a result of the inputs, their granularity, and our understanding of the system mechanics.

I'll agree that right now the major error is our lack of data on the initial conditions, with lack of understanding of the mechanics coming in a close second, but it still seems to me that using a math which models temperature as a continuous "Real" variable rather than as billions of discrete changes will simply never be able to make accurate long range predictions.  Discrete Topology simply isn't the same math as continuous vector fields.  In particular, the group of Integers has all sorts of funky subgroups and other properties that only show up with very large numbers.
You must be a god if you want to abandon the thermodynamic equillibria assumptions  and try solve the underlying discrete quantum equations with 10^26 or more degrees of freedom... to end up getting similar results because the thermodynamics models have been working really well for centuries.
Do you know that in every breath you take there is a 99.99% probability of you taking at least one molecule of air that Caesar expelled when he said "et tu Brute"?
I think climate and weather models are well above the head of most of us here and I personally let specialists do their job and deliver their breakthroughs when they come with one.
No...I am a primitive Buddhist:  No essence.  No permanence.  No perfection.

I just don't think this kind of math will prove to be of utility with this kind of system for detailed predictions longer than a few weeks.  You will need the computing power of the whole Universe just to keep up with what is happening outside your window.

I will ask the same question again in another form.  What evidence do we have that this is even a reasonable method for accurately modelling long-term climate?   Or: Why should we treat 2 degrees C as anything other then pure magical thinking?

ktonine

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #928 on: March 15, 2017, 05:32:37 PM »
Or: Why should we treat 2 degrees C as anything other then pure magical thinking?

Jim, what do you mean here? 2°C isn't a number pulled from GCMs - or even a consensus of  scientists.  It's essentially a political statement.  That we can keep global temperatures below 2°C from pre-industrial probably does require magical thinking, but again that's neither the fault of models or climate scientists.

ktonine

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #929 on: March 15, 2017, 05:38:47 PM »


Alchemy I tell ya! Alchemy!!!

gerontocrat

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #930 on: March 15, 2017, 05:49:40 PM »
The projections by Hansen on global temperatures are non-linear. Does this suggest that the impacts of temp change are / will be non-linear ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

DrTskoul

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #931 on: March 15, 2017, 05:59:14 PM »


Alchemy I tell ya! Alchemy!!!

Check Tamino out re statistical significance

jdallen

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #932 on: March 15, 2017, 06:10:41 PM »
Good responses, ktonine.

Jim, I think you are missing the intent of the models; they are not so much used to predict exact behavior as they are to give us a trajectory.  That by itself is actually sufficient for us to derive conclusions as to how we need to change our energy use and economic behavior, and give us yardsticks we can use to compare theory with observed behavior.

As to their relevance, most are run with past data (hindcast) to see how well they match previously observed behavior when given inputs for a past date.

I'm still not understanding what your objection is, beyond your feeling the models are not skillful enough for you taste. Mostly it's seemed semantic.

Lastly, I think a fundamental issue lies in the fact the system is chaotic.  It is possible even in the real world to get different outcomes in system behavior from the same starting conditions; differences will be small, but as with precision in any measurement they will add up such that even with "perfect" mathematics you will not achieve a solution that absolutely matches observed behavior.
This space for Rent.

Jim Williams

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #933 on: March 15, 2017, 07:41:09 PM »
Or: Why should we treat 2 degrees C as anything other then pure magical thinking?

Jim, what do you mean here? 2°C isn't a number pulled from GCMs - or even a consensus of  scientists.  It's essentially a political statement.  That we can keep global temperatures below 2°C from pre-industrial probably does require magical thinking, but again that's neither the fault of models or climate scientists.

My point is the whole of GCM is essentially magical thinking -- as far as I can tell from the evidence.

What I fault is paying any attention at all to the GCM absent evidence of "skill."  It would be correct if I had never heard of them.


DrTskoul

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #934 on: March 15, 2017, 08:15:53 PM »
It is not bad to admit that you have absolutely no clue how the models work... it ok but do not project your ignorance to the models or the scientists running them...

Cid_Yama

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #935 on: March 15, 2017, 08:29:50 PM »
Jim Williams is our resident Denier/Creationist.  He really wasn't wanting to understand, if you know what I mean.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

shmengie

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #936 on: March 16, 2017, 08:50:58 PM »
In the attached, I see an atmospheric pool of Arctic chilled air above N. America continent draining into swift, warmer Atlantic Atmosphere.   Does O₂ tend to pool or stream @ ~ 850 hPa in the atmosphere?
Professor Trump, who'd thought it was that complicated?

DrTskoul

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #937 on: March 16, 2017, 11:08:22 PM »
Well mixed gas, so I don't understand your question.

Jim Williams

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #938 on: March 17, 2017, 01:47:52 AM »
It is not bad to admit that you have absolutely no clue how the models work... it ok but do not project your ignorance to the models or the scientists running them...
I do not care how they work, I care that they do not work.  I am rejecting an appeal to authority here.

And that is exactly what you just made.

DrTskoul

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #939 on: March 17, 2017, 02:04:12 AM »
I couldn't care less....

sidd

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #940 on: March 17, 2017, 04:24:40 AM »
"I do not care how they work, I care that they do not work.  I am rejecting an appeal to authority here."

And replacing it with an appeal to your own authority. I do look forward to seeing your non model explanations in the peer reviwed literature.

Until then, I shall to those pitiful models constructed by ignorant scientists.

sidd

FredBear

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #941 on: March 17, 2017, 11:48:34 AM »
Jim Williams is our resident Denier/Creationist.  He really wasn't wanting to understand, if you know what I mean.
At least models can be checked/compared with each other and the real world for accuracy - dumping them sounds like emptying the baby out with the bath water (and forgetting to look for the baby too?).

Dave C

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #942 on: March 17, 2017, 01:29:50 PM »
Is ice creation linearly related to temperature?

Would 10 days at minus 5 celsius give you the same amount of ice as 1 day at minus 50 celcius? Or, is there some other temperature slope that would give you an extrapolatable result?

Of course ice formation slows as ice gets thicker. So what I am really interested in finding is the ice creation curve starting with zero ice for any given temperature. Is this even possible, or are there too many other relevant variables to ever get a curve that would generally apply to real world ice creation?
« Last Edit: March 17, 2017, 01:47:23 PM by Dave C »

crandles

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #943 on: March 17, 2017, 02:09:19 PM »
Is ice creation linearly related to temperature?

Would 10 days at minus 5 celsius give you the same amount of ice as 1 day at minus 50 celcius? Or, is there some other temperature slope that would give you an extrapolatable result?

Of course ice formation slows as ice gets thicker. So what I am really interested in finding is the ice creation curve starting with zero ice for any given temperature. Is this even possible, or are there too many other relevant variables to ever get a curve that would generally apply to real world ice creation?

try this thread
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1880.0.html

ktonine

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #944 on: March 17, 2017, 03:22:45 PM »
It is not bad to admit that you have absolutely no clue how the models work... it ok but do not project your ignorance to the models or the scientists running them...
I do not care how they work, I care that they do not work.  I am rejecting an appeal to authority here.

And that is exactly what you just made.

Jim you need to get out more.  Not all models are the same. HadGEM1 has done a very reasonable job modelling recent ice losses and several papers have been written:
A case study of a modelled episode of low Arctic sea ice, Keen, A.B., Hewitt, H.T. & Ridley, J.K.  2013
Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model, A. E. West, A. B. Keen, and H. T. Hewitt, 2013

johnm33

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #945 on: March 17, 2017, 05:21:26 PM »
Is ice creation linearly related to temperature?

Would 10 days at minus 5 celsius give you the same amount of ice as 1 day at minus 50 celcius? Or, is there some other temperature slope that would give you an extrapolatable result?

Of course ice formation slows as ice gets thicker. So what I am really interested in finding is the ice creation curve starting with zero ice for any given temperature. Is this even possible, or are there too many other relevant variables to ever get a curve that would generally apply to real world ice creation?
Worth looking here too http://eh2r.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/new-sea-ice-starts-from-3-important.html

Shared Humanity

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #946 on: March 17, 2017, 07:45:40 PM »


Alchemy I tell ya! Alchemy!!!

Oh sure. A model predicts in 1981 the increases and the results look remarkably like the predictions and you think this is anything more than luck?

Well, Jim is looking out his window and it is raining so what about that?

Jim Williams

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #947 on: March 18, 2017, 02:13:46 AM »
It is not bad to admit that you have absolutely no clue how the models work... it ok but do not project your ignorance to the models or the scientists running them...
I do not care how they work, I care that they do not work.  I am rejecting an appeal to authority here.

And that is exactly what you just made.
Jim you need to get out more.  Not all models are the same. HadGEM1 has done a very reasonable job modelling recent ice losses and several papers have been written:
A case study of a modelled episode of low Arctic sea ice, Keen, A.B., Hewitt, H.T. & Ridley, J.K.  2013
Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model, A. E. West, A. B. Keen, and H. T. Hewitt, 2013

Can you just provide me with century long statistics on their +/- error rate please?  I have no interest in happenstance at all.


Eli81

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #948 on: March 18, 2017, 06:03:24 AM »


Can you just provide me with century long statistics on their +/- error rate please?  I have no interest in happenstance at all.
This type of manufactured doubt is like a cancer that has infected our society, and it shouldn't be allowed to spread. Reading it here makes me furious.

You cannot just brush off two research papers with a single inane sentence and expect to be taken seriously. The papers have already been peer-reviewed and published, they speak for themselves. You're the one that made the claim, the onus is on you to show us how they're "happenstance".

It is painfully obvious that you do not know how a computer model of even the most simple of things actually works.

Does this guy only attack "climate" models? What about the thousands of other models that we use on a daily basis? Are they happenstance when right too? Disgusting.

Tigertown

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #949 on: March 18, 2017, 08:47:07 AM »
For whom it may concern, Jim Williams has started a specific thread about GCM models and their validation.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1922.msg106740/topicseen.html#msg106740

"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.