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prokaryotes

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Rapid episodes of warming, explain
« on: December 26, 2015, 03:44:23 PM »

What are the chances or indications for rapid episodes of global warming? Past years showed continued rise with year after year breaking annual records. In above image (Link http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html ) you can see that the trend spikes currently in 2015. In the monthly visual here http://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=MOD_LSTAD_M you can see that the temps show something like a switch behavior (compare northern hemisphere regional monthly temps), though maybe this is the norm, idk. In this video Jim White elaborates on Greenland atmospheric circulations which he assumes changed drastically when temperatures jumped abruptly.

Are there any signs which can be considered to show potential for the beginning of rapid episodes, or are we still in a rather linear realm of change?

Is there anything very strange going on over at Greenland (or elsewhere). Are there any special blocking patterns forming, or remarkable temperature anomalies (outside of the observed norm), or fluctuations of temperature patterns maybe (as i mention above), special atmospheric changes - which could indicate something very spectacular has begun? Or are we just witnessing the continuation and reinforcement of patterns already identified (persistence / behavior)?

What could be the observational signs, before a rapid warmth episode takes place?

Patterns i would identify
- Extreme and unusual weather around the world
- Plateau of temperatures for a couple of years (per ice core data)
- Regional fluctuations of temperature (That's just my personal thought)
« Last Edit: December 26, 2015, 04:11:08 PM by prokaryotes »

jai mitchell

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Re: Rapid episodes of warming, explain
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2016, 03:41:20 PM »
The strongest indicator that we are on a cusp of rapid warming is the ARGO buoy global ocean heat content series published by the National Center for Environmental Information (formerly NODC).  https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

The earth's oceans experience about 93% of the total expression of global warming since the cooler body of water has the greatest rate of heat energy transfer.  Having an accurate assessment of this heat accumulation shows how the rate of warming has been growing.

Since the earth's hemispheres are so different with the vast majority of the ocean surface area located in the southern hemisphere, the rate of globally averaged ocean heat energy gains fluctuates with the seasons,  dropping in the southern hemisphere winter and rising in the summer. 

There is also a 2-3 month delay in the publishing of data so the 3-month average that ended in the last quarter of 2015 won't be published until February or March.

The rate of rapid increased heat accumulation in the oceans shows that the overall global energy accumulation of caused by greenhouse gasses has roughly doubled since 2004 or so. 

In addition, the effect of warming is time delayed since 2/3 of the warming effect of CO2 emissions are produced by a water vapor/lapse rate feedback which doesn't kick in until accumulated atmospheric warming begins.  This process takes about 10 years to reach full impact.

I believe that the reduction in sulfuric acid (SO2) emissions in South East Asia due to a severe manufacturing sector slowdown and pollution policy changes has led to an large scale increase in the warming rate over the last 2 years though this impact has been somewhat ameliorated by the massive, unprecedented fires in Indonesia as a result of the El Nino. 

The regional aerosol shielding of the earth will produce a short-term shielding of the ocean from *some* of the effects of global warming this year.  However, I expect that the new fourth quarter global ocean heat content data will come in somewhere around 25.2-25.5 X 10^22 joules.

This equates to around 1.2 Watts per square meter of globally averaged TOP of ATMOSPHERE global forcing, averaged over the entire surface of the earth.

Further economic slowdowns, reductions in aerosols and the water vapor/lapse rate response will ensure a rapid period of warming into a new equilibrium state with record high temperatures averaged over the entire surface of the globe, with regional anomalies, like the current Scandanavian cold spell that is likely impacted by a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

You can review my work here: (image attached)

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AbruptSLR

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Re: Rapid episodes of warming, explain
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2016, 10:38:12 PM »
Here are two of the Ocean Heat Content plots that jai linked to through July/Sept 2015, the first two images are for 0-700m, and 0-2000m, respectively.  I note that as indicated in the third image that in years when the PDO has been positive (1978-1998) the heat content of the oceans have increased rapidly, while when the PDO has been negative (1999-2014) the heat sequestered into the ocean has been relatively flat, while now that the PDO is positive again so less heat will be entering the ocean so more of it will stay in the atmosphere though the end of the current positive PDO cycle:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

jai mitchell

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Re: Rapid episodes of warming, explain
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2016, 08:39:23 PM »
annual average pdo values shown in graphic.

less one month (dec) in 2015 so the average is low than the final value will be.

The rate-change of ocean heat content has not been affected too greatly by the PDO.  Contrary to popular opinion.  The rate of heat content increase has been linear for most of the last 17 years.  However, the rate of forcing has increased significantly,

so there are multiple factors that have prevented the rate of heat increase from ocurring.

The greatest "tell" in this instance is the post 1978 increase when sulfates were removed by the industrialized countries.  Some say that it was due to a PDO shift at this time, I assert that the PDO shift was also a function off the reduction in Aerosols.

The other "tell" is how the rate of OHC increase has not changed greatly during the last 7 years when we went into a long-term negative phase. 

However, SLR is correct that a positive PDO will have some effect, it is, in my view, secondary to the aerosol effect.
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prokaryotes

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Re: Rapid episodes of warming, explain
« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2016, 10:36:51 PM »

2016 climate trends continue to break records
http://phys.org/news/2016-07-climate-trends.html

prokaryotes

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Re: Rapid episodes of warming, explain
« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2016, 08:01:29 PM »
I believe that the reduction in sulfuric acid (SO2) emissions in South East Asia due to a severe manufacturing sector slowdown and pollution policy changes has led to an large scale increase in the warming rate over the last 2 years though this impact has been somewhat ameliorated by the massive, unprecedented fires in Indonesia as a result of the El Nino.

The significance of the unmasking from reductions in sulphur dioxide, is not yet quantified.

However, there are hints.

Quote
The primary cause of the mid-century cooling, through dimming, was related to the increase in atmospheric aerosols emissions.

Although the global temperature only decreased by approximately 0.1°C.
http://climatestate.com/2016/09/16/cleaner-air-the-ocean-and-global-warming/