Author Topic: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath (Read 495687 times)

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1000 on:** October 15, 2016, 03:26:52 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has continued plunging down to +7.3:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1001 on:** October 16, 2016, 03:27:18 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has continued plunging down to +6.0:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1002 on:** October 17, 2016, 05:02:20 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.9:

Lord M Vader · « **Reply #1003 on:** October 17, 2016, 08:39:23 AM »

PDO for September is in, dropping slightly from +0,52 in August to +0,45 in September.

According to CDAS, Niño 3.4 Index is back to neutral value at -0,483^oC.

Longpaddock values is back to neutral after a few days with low values.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1004 on:** October 17, 2016, 03:56:36 PM »

Per the following weekly data issued by NOAA for the week centered on Oct 12 2016, all Nino indices are less conducive for a possible La Nina, with the Nino 3.4 raising up to -0.6C:

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4
Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA

28SEP2016 21.2 0.6 24.7-0.2 25.9-0.8 28.1-0.5
05OCT2016 20.8 0.1 24.3-0.6 25.8-0.9 28.1-0.6
12OCT2016 21.8 1.0 24.8-0.1 26.1-0.6 28.2-0.4

The first two images were issued today by the BoM with weekly values thru the week ending Oct 16 2016; with the first image indicating that the Nino 3.4 index has increased and the second indicating that the IOD is fluctuating.

The third image issued today by NOAA shows that the daily Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom is very slowly drifting upwards.

The fourth image issued today shows the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom, indicating that the recent cool way deep pool is slowly dissipating.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1005 on:** October 17, 2016, 03:58:49 PM »

The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM showing weekly Nino values thru the week ending Oct 16 2016; indicating that the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices have all slightly increased.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1006 on:** October 18, 2016, 03:51:05 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.8:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1007 on:** October 19, 2016, 03:24:54 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.6:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1008 on:** October 20, 2016, 04:40:23 PM »

Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.9:

Lord M Vader · « **Reply #1009 on:** October 20, 2016, 05:12:35 PM »

The subsurface watersin the Western Pacific have warmed significantly and there is now a small pool with a +2^o anomaly at about 75 m depth.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1010 on:** October 21, 2016, 03:25:00 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.8:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1011 on:** October 22, 2016, 03:22:50 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.1:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1012 on:** October 23, 2016, 03:19:34 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.0:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1013 on:** October 24, 2016, 03:23:12 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.3:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1014 on:** October 24, 2016, 04:09:50 PM »

The following data indicates that on a weekly basis NOAA is leaning towards weak La Nina conditions while the BoM is leaning towards cool ENSO neutral conditions:

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4
Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA
31AUG2016 20.9 0.3 24.6-0.3 26.0-0.7 28.5-0.1
07SEP2016 20.8 0.3 24.6-0.3 26.1-0.7 28.6-0.1
14SEP2016 20.6 0.2 24.7-0.2 26.1-0.6 28.5-0.2
21SEP2016 21.2 0.8 24.8-0.1 26.3-0.4 28.5-0.2
28SEP2016 21.2 0.6 24.7-0.2 25.9-0.8 28.1-0.5
05OCT2016 20.8 0.1 24.3-0.6 25.8-0.9 28.1-0.6
12OCT2016 21.8 1.0 24.8-0.1 26.1-0.6 28.2-0.4
19OCT2016 20.7-0.2 24.4-0.6 26.1-0.6 28.4-0.2

The first attached image shows NOAA's Eq Pac. Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued Oct 24 2016, indicating slight cooling.

The second attached image shows NOAA's Eq Pac. SSTA evolution issued Oct 24 2016, indicating cool conditions.

The third attached image shows the BoM's weekly Nino 3.4 value for the week ending Oct 23 2016, indicating cool neutral conditions.

The fourth attached image shows the BoM's weekly IOD value for the week ending Oct 23 2016, indicating cool neutral conditions.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1015 on:** October 24, 2016, 04:12:00 PM »

The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Oct 23 2016, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively, all indicating cool neutral conditions.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1016 on:** October 24, 2016, 04:22:29 PM »

The attached TAO image issued today of the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profile indicates some cooling at depth and some warming in shallow water.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1017 on:** October 25, 2016, 03:17:43 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.6:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1018 on:** October 26, 2016, 03:23:02 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +2.4:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1019 on:** October 27, 2016, 03:20:17 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +1.1:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1020 on:** October 28, 2016, 03:28:32 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -0.2:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1021 on:** October 29, 2016, 03:22:34 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -1.5:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1022 on:** October 30, 2016, 02:24:11 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -2.9:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1023 on:** October 31, 2016, 02:22:15 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -4.2:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1024 on:** October 31, 2016, 04:50:48 PM »

The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Oct 30 2016, indicating that the Nino 3.4 is -0.49C and that the IOD is -0.30, respectively. In the following table of weekly Nino indices through the week centered on Oct 26 2016, NOAA has the Nino 3.4 dropping down to -0.8C. The last two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and SSTA Evolution, respectively. Taken together this data indicates the chance of a weak formal La Nina being recognized by NOAA by the end of the year, with a chance that other international organizations may not recognize such a formal designation:

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4
Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA
14SEP2016 20.6 0.2 24.7-0.2 26.1-0.6 28.5-0.2
21SEP2016 21.2 0.8 24.8-0.1 26.3-0.4 28.5-0.2
28SEP2016 21.2 0.6 24.7-0.2 25.9-0.8 28.1-0.5
05OCT2016 20.8 0.1 24.3-0.6 25.8-0.9 28.1-0.6
12OCT2016 21.8 1.0 24.8-0.1 26.1-0.6 28.2-0.4
19OCT2016 20.7-0.2 24.4-0.6 26.1-0.6 28.4-0.2
26OCT2016 21.3 0.2 24.4-0.5 25.9-0.8 28.2-0.4

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1025 on:** October 31, 2016, 04:53:27 PM »

The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Oct 30 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, indices respectively, all of which indicate neutral ENSO conditions.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1026 on:** October 31, 2016, 04:57:33 PM »

The linked article is entitled: "‘The Blob’ Is Back: What Warm Ocean Mass Means for Weather, Wildlife".

https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/community/2016/10/31/the-blob-is-back-what-warm-ocean-mass-means-for-weather-wildlife

Extract: "Unusually warm waters along the Pacific Coast, dubbed “the Blob,” have severely disrupted weather and wildlife since 2014. Meteorologist Nicholas Bond explains the phenomenon."

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1027 on:** November 01, 2016, 02:22:48 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -5.6:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1028 on:** November 02, 2016, 02:22:53 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -4.3:

Darvince · « **Reply #1029 on:** November 02, 2016, 11:37:29 PM »

well then

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1030 on:** November 03, 2016, 05:08:55 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.4:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1031 on:** November 04, 2016, 02:27:50 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -4.4:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1032 on:** November 05, 2016, 07:29:13 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -5.0:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1033 on:** November 06, 2016, 02:30:50 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -5.0:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1034 on:** November 07, 2016, 03:17:28 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.6:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1035 on:** November 07, 2016, 06:26:44 PM »

Per the following data (thru the week centered on Nov 2 2016) and first two images (of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively) issued by NOAA today, NOAA remains somewhat bullish for a weak possible La Nina by the end of this year, while per the last two images issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Nov 6 2016 for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively, the BoM is still leaning towards neutral ENSO conditions (with the slightly possibility of a La Nina by early next year):

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4
Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA
28SEP2016 21.2 0.6 24.7-0.2 25.9-0.8 28.1-0.5
05OCT2016 20.8 0.1 24.3-0.6 25.8-0.9 28.1-0.6
12OCT2016 21.8 1.0 24.8-0.1 26.1-0.6 28.2-0.4
19OCT2016 20.7-0.2 24.4-0.6 26.1-0.6 28.4-0.2
26OCT2016 21.3 0.2 24.4-0.5 25.9-0.8 28.2-0.4
02NOV2016 21.2 0.0 24.3-0.6 25.8-0.8 28.0-0.6

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1036 on:** November 07, 2016, 06:29:05 PM »

The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM with weekly Nino index through the week ending Nov 6 2016 & shows the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 weekly indices, respectively. This data all indicates continuing cool ENSO neutral conditions:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1037 on:** November 07, 2016, 07:09:18 PM »

If the attached ECMM MJO forecast from Nov 7 to 21 2016 actually occurs, we might see some WWB activity in the tropics west of the international dateline by mid-November.

Lord M Vader · « **Reply #1038 on:** November 07, 2016, 07:58:06 PM »

Mike Ventrice has a twitter post about this:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/795257185165017088

//LMV

DrTskoul · « **Reply #1039 on:** November 07, 2016, 09:43:28 PM »

Quote from: Lord M Vader on November 07, 2016, 07:58:06 PM

Mike Ventrice has a twitter post about this:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/795257185165017088

//LMV

He writes Atlantic basin. Does he mean Pacific?

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1040 on:** November 08, 2016, 02:22:23 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.0:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1041 on:** November 09, 2016, 02:48:56 AM »

Per the attached plot, and the following data, issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.7:

20161009,20161107,-5.7

Also, the following extract is from the BoM's ENSO Wrap-up (issued today):

"The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, while the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has continued to decay over the past fortnight, and is likely to be near its end."

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1042 on:** November 09, 2016, 05:49:49 PM »

The attached ECMM MJO forecast from No 9 to 23, 2016, if bullish for a period of WWB activity in the Western Tropical Pacific (in Mid-November):

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1043 on:** November 10, 2016, 05:41:15 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.0:

Lord M Vader · « **Reply #1044 on:** November 10, 2016, 06:58:17 PM »

According to Mike Ventrice the NMME forecasts the PDO to flip back to negative values by spring 2017. Whether this would be a temporary blip back to negative values remains to see, if it materializes of course.

Link to the tweet from Ventrice: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/796359781422272513

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1045 on:** November 11, 2016, 07:26:47 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.4:

Lord M Vader · « **Reply #1046 on:** November 11, 2016, 05:52:41 PM »

La Niña is officially here according to NOAA!!

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/november-2016-la-ni%C3%B1a-update-hello-lady

The last couple days the global SSTs have plummeted down, according to Tropical Tidbits.

//LMV

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1047 on:** November 11, 2016, 07:01:43 PM »

Quote from: Lord M Vader on November 11, 2016, 05:52:41 PM

La Niña is officially here according to NOAA!!

I have read articles indicating that La Nina conditions in the boreal Fall can contribute to relatively low Artic Sea Ice extents the following September.

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #1048 on:** November 12, 2016, 02:32:27 AM »

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -4.4:

Sleepy · « **Reply #1049 on:** November 12, 2016, 09:55:20 AM »

Quote from: Lord M Vader on November 11, 2016, 05:52:41 PM

La Niña is officially here according to NOAA!!

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/november-2016-la-ni%C3%B1a-update-hello-lady

The last couple days the global SSTs have plummeted down, according to Tropical Tidbits.

//LMV

Is it?
Quoting the final section:

Quote

The atmospheric response overall is fairly weak, going along with the borderline cooler sea surface temperatures of this La Niña… but it’s been consistent for a few months, meaning that we are seeing a change on seasonal timescales, and it’s time to formally welcome La Niña conditions!

Also adding this from BoM:

Quote

In the tropical Pacific, some indicators such as cloudiness near the Date Line show La Niña-like characteristics, whereas sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific Ocean and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remain at neutral levels. Recent strengthening of the trade winds in the western tropical Pacific brings the potential for some further cooling of ocean waters. However, this strengthening is likely the result of a Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse. Trade winds are likely to weaken in the coming weeks as the MJO passes. Hence it does not appear that the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean are currently reinforcing each other, as they would during the developing stages of a La Niña.

SST's has mainly plummeted in the south tropical pacific.

News:

Author Topic: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath (Read 495687 times)

Sleepy