2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath

[Lord M Vader]

ASLR, your last picture showing the subsurface temperatures indeed shows that the minimal area of -3^oC at about 75 m depth have grown since yesterday.

Latest forecast for the wind anomalies indicates that weak westerlies will encompass most of the equatorial Pacific from about April 8. ECMWFs forecast is that the MJO will be more or less stucked in the Indian Ocean for the next two weeks or so.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html

[AbruptSLR]

ASLR, your last picture showing the subsurface temperatures indeed shows that the minimal area of -3^oC at about 75 m depth have grown since yesterday.

Latest forecast for the wind anomalies indicates that weak westerlies will encompass most of the equatorial Pacific from about April 8. ECMWFs forecast is that the MJO will be more or less stucked in the Indian Ocean for the next two weeks or so.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html

I called the increase in -3C at about 75m a "little change"; however, maybe the term "little" is relative.

[Lord M Vader]

Well, all the other differences were more or less the same but that minor area was so obvious for ones eyes

ASLR, thank you for everything you are doing at this forum! I think we can put the title "Mr. El Niño" on you!

Best, LMV

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -3.4:

20160305,20160403,-3.4

Edit: Here is the plot

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.2:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.0:

[James Lovejoy]

Earth System Research Laboratory's MEI is agreeing with just about every measure that the el Nino is fading.  http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

The writer of the page says "Meanwhile, I believe that general El Niño conditions (rankings iin top 30%) are still more likely than not through May-June, in the MEI sense."


 

[AbruptSLR]

Earth System Research Laboratory's MEI is agreeing with just about every measure that the el Nino is fading.  http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

The writer of the page says "Meanwhile, I believe that general El Niño conditions (rankings iin top 30%) are still more likely than not through May-June, in the MEI sense."

The attached plot is from the link that you provided, and while the author's statement could be taken to mean that he thinks the current El Nino will end in the May-June time frame, it can just as early be taken to mean that a weak El Nino could continue past June 2016, where it might disrupt India's summer monsoon season.

[charles_oil]

El-Nino is causing drought in Panama - so restrictions on the vessel drafts that can use it.  Still - should be able to go round the North soon !

https://gcaptain.com/drought-brings-second-round-of-panama-canal-draft-restrictions/#.VwYr-um77aE.email

[Steven]

Latest NMME multi-model ensemble forecast for Niño 3.4:



suggests a transition to weak La Niña by July/August 2016.

Forecast for August 2016:


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -4.9:

[AbruptSLR]

The first image show the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for April 8 2016, showing that the thin layer of relatively warm surface water is persisting and does not show any signs of upwelling of cool deeper water.

The second image shows the Eq Pac Dateline cloud cover through about April 8 2016, indicating relatively persistent cloud cover (which is an indication of continuing El Nino conditions).

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -5.8:

[Sleepy]

Still no signs of atmospheric coupling and a transition towards a La Nina. Feels like that slow and sluggish response by the atmosphere in 2014. There's too much heat and time is slowly running out.

[AbruptSLR]

Maybe when we get past the Spring Barrier for forecasting we will have a better idea of what the future will bring:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/will-la-nina-follow-one-of-strongest-el-ninos-20223

Extract: "Right now Barnston puts the odds at slightly better than 50 percent that a La Niña does develop.
...
It’s far too early to tell how strong any La Niña that does develop might be, forecasters say.

“It's difficult to forecast strength of events. An added difficulty is that things change pretty quickly when an event is decaying — this is the time of year when the accuracy of forecasts is lower,” Catherine Ganter, a senior climatologist with Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said in an email.

Barnston said they should have a better idea of the potential strength by August, possibly a bit sooner if there is a very sharp cool down in Pacific Ocean temperatures."

[Sigmetnow]

La Niña is Coming. Here’s What That Means for You.
By Eric Holthaus

On Thursday, the National Multi-Model Ensemble, a blend of the most reliable seasonal forecasts available, showed the clearest signal yet that tropical Pacific waters will cool rapidly over the next six months, likely ushering in La Niña conditions.

Here’s exactly what’s about to happen, as explained by the fine folks at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

In a nutshell, El Niño’s burst of warm water has slackened the trade winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean, and pushed the atmosphere there into an unsustainable setup. El Niño is now in the process of eating itself, as Anthony Barnston, one of the world’s foremost experts on El Niño and La Niña told Climate Central’s Andrea Thompson. As this happens, the trade winds will return with a vengeance, and will promote cooler, upwelling ocean water (which we call La Niña) that will shift weather patterns worldwide.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/04/08/la_nina_2016_2017_what_it_means_for_you.html

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -6.7:

[Sleepy]

Maybe when we get past the Spring Barrier for forecasting we will have a better idea of what the future will bring:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/will-la-nina-follow-one-of-strongest-el-ninos-20223

Extract: "Right now Barnston puts the odds at slightly better than 50 percent that a La Niña does develop.
...
It’s far too early to tell how strong any La Niña that does develop might be, forecasters say.

“It's difficult to forecast strength of events. An added difficulty is that things change pretty quickly when an event is decaying — this is the time of year when the accuracy of forecasts is lower,” Catherine Ganter, a senior climatologist with Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said in an email.

Barnston said they should have a better idea of the potential strength by August, possibly a bit sooner if there is a very sharp cool down in Pacific Ocean temperatures."

Yes, maybe. Model outputs should be taken with caution right now. They also failed in early 2014.

The time frame is important, as later transitions into a La Nina has (historically) produced weaker and/or delayed events. We would like to see negative SSTs in June and by late July we would like to see OLR and SOI persistently positive if we whish to see a stronger La Nina.

And the decline of this El Nino has been slow so far.

[Sleepy]

A comparison of SSTs between -98/-10/-16. NOAA.

                       Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
01APR1998      29.1 3.1     29.3 1.9     28.7 1.2     28.6 0.2
31MAR2010     25.9-0.1     28.1 0.8     28.4 0.9     29.2 0.8
30MAR2016     27.5 1.5     28.9 1.6     29.0 1.5     29.5 1.1

2010 had an earlier start and/but lower temperatures.
1998 was earlier but the Nino4 region was 0.9° colder and Nino1+2 1.6° warmer.

1983 was similar to 1998 at this point in time for the Nino3.4 region but plateued between April and May.
Our present event is in a hurry to catch up but maybe those colder subsurface anomalies will provide those colder anomalies needed. Or not.

[AbruptSLR]

And the decline of this El Nino has been slow so far.

To support Sleepy's observations, the attached images show that our current El Nino is declining slower than most forecasts.

The first image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued April 10 2016, showing that the EKW has either reached a trough or at least a plateau.

The second image shows the Tropical Tidbits SSTA for April 10 2016, showing clear El Nino conditions.

The third image shows the TAO Subsurface Temp Anom profile for April 10 2016, showing that the warm surface layer remains stable (will no sign of the upwelling of cooler deeper water).

The fourth image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from April 10 to 17 2016, showing more WWB activity than what was forecast a few days ago.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -6.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued by NOAA today the Nino 3.4 for the week centered on April 6 2016 has dropped down to +1.3:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 09MAR2016     27.7 1.2     28.6 1.6     28.9 1.8     29.6 1.5
 16MAR2016     27.5 1.0     28.8 1.7     28.9 1.7     29.6 1.4
 23MAR2016     27.2 0.9     28.6 1.4     28.8 1.5     29.5 1.2
 30MAR2016     27.5 1.5     28.9 1.6     29.0 1.5     29.5 1.1
 06APR2016     27.1 1.3     28.8 1.4     28.9 1.3     29.3 0.9

The two attached images were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending April 10 2016.  The first image shows that the Nino 3.4 has dropped down to +1.15, and the second shows that the IOD remains neutral:

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM thru the week ending April 10 2016, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively.  They all indicate that the current El Nino has dropped down in to the moderate strength range.

[AbruptSLR]

The first three images were issued today by NOAA respectively showing the: (1) Eq Pac SSTA Evolution; (2) Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom Evolution and (3) Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom profile for April 3 2016.

The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for April 11 2016; which shows the warm surface layer of water intact (unlike what is shown in NOAA's model for April 3rd shown in the third image), and the deeper cooler waters are dissipating as compared to the past several days.  This raises the prospect that no upwelling phase of the EKW will bring cooler deep water to the surface from some time to come.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has jumped down to -7.5:

[Lord M Vader]

Latest PDO-value for March from JISAO just arrived. A huge value of +2,40 is the second highest trailing behind 1941 which had a value of +2,41.

[Sigmetnow]

Kiritimati Atoll:  The Largest Coral Atoll In The World Lost 80 Percent Of Its Coral To Bleaching in the Last Ten Months

Their estimate is, as of early April, about 80 percent of the coral colonies at Kiritimati are now dead, and another 15 percent are severely bleached and likely to die. It’s as if someone decided to cut down 90 percent of the Redwood Forest. Overnight, an entire ecosystem has essentially blinked out of existence.

I spoke with the team by satellite phone on one of their last days of dives, and the shock in their voices was palpable.

“There’s a good chance that this reef will never be the same,” said Cobb. “It’s a wake-up call.”

From cores that Cobb’s team has analyzed, she estimated there’s been nothing like the current die-off in Kiritimati in the 7,000 years of ancient coral history there. About 10 months ago, this reef was still mostly healthy, as it has been for thousands of years. Global warming will make the pressure on global corals even worse in the coming decades, and many of the world’s reefs can expect future bleaching events to occur more frequently. For some, like those in Kiritimati, the last few months — the worst global coral bleaching episode in history — may be a point of no return.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/04/12/3768723/coral-bleaching-christmas-atoll/

[Bruce Steele]

I wonder if people can. Get their mind around the whole cascade of emptiness, barren skeletal reef a 80% severely bleached atoll leaves behind?
 There are pictures of bleached bison bones collected for their contained fertilizer , phosphorus
 Collected years after they were gunned down
And you can look at one of those pictures and envision the enormous herds gone
You can get your mind around it a little but and atoll 80% dead
A hundred atolls dead
The enormity of it and I don't think we feel the pain properly
Not like the bison herds gone, we just don't feel it somehow
So if you envision just a a few inches, a few meters and stare at it, even the aquarium
And that's a faint faint reflection of a reef but still stare at the coral moving the fish and their forts
On the scale of an inch, an atoll, a hundred , hundreds and our minds eye fails
Last line
A point of no return


   
   

[Lord M Vader]

EXTREMLY HUGE cooling of SSTs in the far Eastern Pacific!! According to Tropical Tidbits, the Niño 1+2 - area dropped about 0,6^oC in just a day or so(!!) Road to strong La Niña or what?!

See more at: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

and: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

RIP Godzilla El Niño!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

EXTREMLY HUGE cooling of SSTs in the far Eastern Pacific!! According to Tropical Tidbits, the Niño 1+2 - area dropped about 0,6^oC in just a day or so(!!) Road to strong La Niña or what?!

See more at: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

and: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

RIP Godzilla El Niño!!

It's shown up on the latest unisys chart too.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -7.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -8.3:

[Lord M Vader]

The very strong cooling of the Nino 1+2 area continues. In just 3 days the temps have drooped with about 1,2^oC.

Moreover, the MJO is forecasted to be stucked in phase 2-4 for the next 2 weeks or so.

[Steven]

Latest CPC/IRI probabilistic forecast suggests there is a 70% chance of La Niña by Autumn 2016:

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -10.0:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for April 15 2016; and while it indicates that the warm surface layer is relatively thin, it is still not clear to me that upwelling of the cooler deeper water will occur any time in the near-term:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the linked article, India is currently experiencing much higher temperatures than normal for this time of year.  Again, I am concerned that if our current El Nino conditions drop into the weak range by mid-June, the current heatwave could be compounded by a failure of India's summer monsoon rains; possibly leading to severe drought conditions:

http://www.seeker.com/high-temps-in-india-and-greenland-1731665799.html

Extract: "2016 has seen higher than usual temperatures around the world, most recently in India and Greenland. Temperatures are soaring in India earlier than usual this year, with no sign of cooling down. Dozens of people have been reported dead in India's southern states, according to the BBC. The city of Bhubaneswar in Orissa reached a record high for April on Monday at 114 degrees Fahrenheit (45.8C).
The monsoon season typically starts in mid-June in India, and temperatures always climb beforehand, but this year's heatwave came much sooner than expected. The extreme heat has extended throughout most of the country."

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -11.7:

[Sleepy]

Adding the ECMWF plumes. Not much to get exited about right now though. The trend in them this year have been that most members have been indicating colder than reality has proven. Also adding a comparison from NOAA for Nino3.4 vs earlier events.

[AbruptSLR]

Adding the ECMWF plumes. Not much to get exited about right now though. The trend in them this year have been that most members have been indicating colder than reality has proven. Also adding a comparison from NOAA for Nino3.4 vs earlier events.

Thanks again Sleepy, as your plots remind us all that before an official La Nina can be declared, the ONI needs to stay at or below -0.5 for five consecutive 3-month overlaying periods (for a total period of seven months).

Also, the attached plot issued today by the BoM, indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has continued plunging down to -12.8:

[Sleepy]

Only two views on the attached comparison from NOAA in my previuos comment and one is my own. Hmm, maybe I'm too obsessed with the timeframe here, but I think it's important. This event is not a repeat of 97-98 and I think a follow up like then, is not possible as things looks now.
More speculations, it feels like the models are underestimating the OHC and the recent cooling in Nino1+2 might be facing a tough time soon.

[AbruptSLR]

Only two views on the attached comparison from NOAA in my previuos comment and one is my own.

For what it is worth, when an image is so large that is requires using the slide-bar to see then it receives fewer views.  If you resize it, like the attached, then it normally receives more views.

[Sleepy]

Yes that might be the case ASLR. But I didn't want to resize that graph since the original was better to look at.
It was also not clear that it was a follow up to my previous comment in #517:

The time frame is important, as later transitions into a La Nina has (historically) produced weaker and/or delayed events. We would like to see negative SSTs in June and by late July we would like to see OLR and SOI persistently positive if we whish to see a stronger La Nina.

[Lord M Vader]

According to latest NOAA analysis it seems like the thin layer of warmer water will be gone soon. OTOH, TAO/TRITON has a somewhat different picture. And what the heck is the MJO doing?! Big differences between NCPE, NCPB and ECMWF. The first suggests a weak to moderate WWB to emerge while the later suggests more destructive interference.

The first attached pic shows a more closer look at the SST anomalies for the equatorial Pacific. Notice that the pic is having a different scale compared to the one ASLR use to post.

The second one is also from NOAA but extending all the way to South America. The third one shows the MJO forecast from NCPB while the fourth and last one shows the same forecast but from ECMWF (the corrected one).

I'm sure ASLR can give a clearer pic of the differences which to me might be critical for whether we may head into a La Niña or not.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued plunging down to -14.7:

[Sleepy]

Let me try to blur things.
Atmospheric response is critical but we are in the spring barrier.
Statistical models are no good right now and they normally starts to show some skill in May, dynamical models already in March, but not much better than the roll of a dice.
Atmospheric forecasts are normally good for a couple of weeks. Right now all forecasts are affected since the signals are low and the noise is high. The atmosphere also likes to respond to SST gradients over the pacific, we don't see much of that now, apart from that cooling in the far eastern part.

A note about subsurface temperatures, the thermocline in the far eastern part is shallower so readings there are less realistic than near the dateline where the thermocline is deeper.

Add the following study to blur things up a bit more regarding the models: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3057-z
And quoting the abstract:

Various observation-based datasets are employed to robustly quantify changes in ocean heat content (OHC), anomalous ocean–atmosphere energy exchanges and atmospheric energy transports during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These results are used as a benchmark to evaluate the energy pathways during ENSO as simulated by coupled climate model runs from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives. The models are able to qualitatively reproduce observed patterns of ENSO-related energy budget variability to some degree, but key aspects are seriously biased. Area-averaged tropical Pacific OHC variability associated with ENSO is greatly underestimated by all models because of strongly biased responses of net radiation at top-of-the-atmosphere to ENSO. The latter are related to biases of mean convective activity in the models and project on surface energy fluxes in the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone region. Moreover, models underestimate horizontal and vertical OHC redistribution in association with the generally too weak Bjerknes feedback, leading to a modeled ENSO affecting a too shallow layer of the Pacific. Vertical links between SST and OHC variability are too weak even in models driven with observed winds, indicating shortcomings of the ocean models. Furthermore, modeled teleconnections as measured by tropical Atlantic OHC variability are too weak and the tropical zonal mean ENSO signal is strongly underestimated or even completely missing in most of the considered models. Results suggest that attempts to infer insight about climate sensitivity from ENSO-related variability are likely to be hampered by biases in ENSO in CMIP simulations that do not bear a clear link to future changes.

We can still speculate though but I will be tremendously surprised if we enter a strong La Nina this year, or next.

[AbruptSLR]

The linked reference uses the CESM to study the differences & similarities between El Ninos and global warming induced El Nino-like SST patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean.  Among numerous other finding, the study confirms that continued global warming will increase the frequency of intense El Nino events:

Fukai Liu, Yiyong Luo, Jian Lu & Xiuquan Wan (15 April 2016), "Response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to El Niño versus global warming", Climate Dynamics, pp 1-22, DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3119-2



http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3119-2


Abstract: "Climate models project an El Niño-like SST response in the tropical Pacific Ocean to global warming (GW). By employing the Community Earth System Model and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component, Parallel Ocean Program version 2, this study investigates the similarity and difference of formation mechanism for the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean under El Niño and GW. Results show that, despite sharing some similarities between the two scenarios, there are many significant distinctions between GW and El Niño: (1) the phase locking of the seasonal cycle reduction is more notable under GW compared with El Niño, implying more extreme El Niño events in the future; (2) in contrast to the penetration of the equatorial subsurface temperature anomaly that appears to propagate in the form of an oceanic equatorial upwelling Kelvin wave during El Niño, the GW-induced subsurface temperature anomaly manifest in the form of off-equatorial upwelling Rossby waves; (3) while significant across-equator northward heat transport (NHT) is induced by the wind stress anomalies associated with El Niño, little NHT is found at the equator due to a symmetric change in the shallow meridional overturning circulation that appears to be weakened in both North and South Pacific under GW; and (4) heat budget analysis shows that the maintaining mechanisms for the eastern equatorial Pacific warming are also substantially different."

[AbruptSLR]

We can still speculate though but I will be tremendously surprised if we enter a strong La Nina this year, or next.

I agree with Sleepy, that I would be tremendously surprised if a strong La Nina forms in 2016; and I believe that it is even premature to state that a weak La Nina will be officially recognized in 2016 (although a weak La Nina this year is possible).  The following weekly NOAA Nino indices indicate that the Nino 3.4 index remained unchanged at +1.3C for the week centered on April 13 2016 (which is higher than all of the dynamic forecasts projected for this period).

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 02MAR2016     27.3 1.0     28.6 1.8     28.9 1.9     29.5 1.4
 09MAR2016     27.7 1.2     28.6 1.6     28.9 1.8     29.6 1.5
 16MAR2016     27.5 1.0     28.8 1.7     28.9 1.7     29.6 1.4
 23MAR2016     27.2 0.9     28.6 1.4     28.8 1.5     29.5 1.2
 30MAR2016     27.5 1.5     28.9 1.6     29.0 1.5     29.5 1.1
 06APR2016     27.1 1.3     28.8 1.4     28.9 1.3     29.3 0.9
 13APR2016     25.6 0.1     28.6 1.2     29.1 1.3     29.3 0.8

Also, the first attached image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from April 18 to 25 2016, showing a reasonably strong WWB that should help support our current weak downwelling EKW phase (thus sustaining the relatively thin warm surface layer for some time to come).  The second image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP forecast for April 22 2016, showing that the forecast WWB is associated with a SPCZ low pressure system.

The third & fourth images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 17 2016, with the third image indicating that the Nino 3.4 index is +1.07C, and the fourth image shows that the IOD remains neutral.

[AbruptSLR]

The first image shows NOAA's modeled Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom & Temp Profile for April 13 2016.  The second image shows the TAO observed Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Profile and Temp Anom issued April 18 2016.  These images both show that the thin warm surface layer remains intact in the Central Eq Pacific, which is key for the continued production of evaporation that decreases the trade winds and allows for the WWB forecast by both the nullschool & the U at Albany this week.

The third & fourth images were issued today by NOAA for the Evolution of the Eq Pac for the SSTA and Upper-Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  These images indicate slowly (not rapidly) degrading El Nino conditions.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 17 2016 showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Note that the cooling trend in the Nino 1 & 2 regions is less pronounced than the daily Tropical Tidbit reports have indicated.  Otherwise, these values all confirm that El Nino conditions are slowly degrading.