2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath

[Sleepy]

The first image shows NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued May 18 2016.
The second image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom issued May 18 2016.
Collectively, these two images indicate that the deep cool water is starting to dissipate together with the think warm surface layer.  It will be interesting to see if we have a soft landing into neutral conditions and avoid La Nina conditions later this year.

The third image shows the NCPE MJO forecast from May 18 to June 1 2016, showing that the active phase of the MJO has moved into the Maritime Continent, and if forecast to weaken rapidly in about a weeks time.

Adding graphics provided by BoM for the vertical temperature anomaly sections at the equator, also indicating that those colder subsurface temperature anomalies are dissipating.
Those anomalies are also shallower when comparing to previous events. In May 1998 the deepest colder anomalies were somewhere between 250-300m at 150E. Now above 250m, and thinning.

Edit; adding May 1998 for reference.

[Sleepy]

A summary at Wunderground by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, of our present global disaster.
April 2016: Earth's 12th Consecutive Warmest Month on Record.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/april-2016-earths-12th-consecutive-warmest-month-on-record
I'll settle with just a couple of small quotes.
First around global temperature in 2016, considering ENSO and a comparison with 1998:
The drop from Jan-Apr to May-Dec would need to be twice as large this year as it was in 1998 in order to put this year’s annual average below that of 2015.
Second quote about estimated costs:
Between January - April 2016, there were twelve billion-dollar weather disasters.

[Lord M Vader]

Will our thin warm layer survive this week wrt these strong easterlies? Doubtful! Negative anomalies seems to increase in EPAC while the positive anomalies are increasing at depth in WPAC. MJO is scheduled to weaken during the next couple of days.



Longpaddock produced two days now with low values.

[AbruptSLR]

Will our thin warm layer survive this week wrt these strong easterlies? Doubtful! Negative anomalies seems to increase in EPAC while the positive anomalies are increasing at depth in WPAC. MJO is scheduled to weaken during the next couple of days.

There is no doubt that the current El Nino will end shortly; however, the real question is whether we will experience neutral conditions later this year as occurred in 1983, or La Nina conditions as occurred in 1998.  Your U of Albany plot shows that the increase in the trade winds should end by about May 24 2016 and seems to be followed by more westerly conditions.  Furthermore, the attached TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued May 19 2016, show that the cool deep layer continues to dissipate, while the warm thin surface layer persists.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -8.3:

[Sleepy]

Will our thin warm layer survive this week wrt these strong easterlies? Doubtful! Negative anomalies seems to increase in EPAC while the positive anomalies are increasing at depth in WPAC. MJO is scheduled to weaken during the next couple of days.

There is no doubt that the current El Nino will end shortly; however, the real question is whether we will experience neutral conditions later this year as occurred in 1983, or La Nina conditions as occurred in 1998.  Your U of Albany plot shows that the increase in the trade winds should end by about May 24 2016 and seems to be followed by more westerly conditions.  Furthermore, the attached TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued May 19 2016, show that the cool deep layer continues to dissipate, while the warm thin surface layer persists.

A follow up like in 1983 is what comes to my mind first. At present I'm stupid enough to gamble for a follow up like between -83 and -92.

One key is of course atmospheric coupling, the red line through this event (since 2014) has been that wind stress forcing has not been behaving as expected. In 2014 it stopped the expected El Nino and there is a good previous comparison to 2014, and that is 1990... During 2015 it wasn't that strong, compared to earlier very strong events. And if forcing fails from now on, we will have a La Nada.

[AbruptSLR]

India has just eclipsed a heat record that was set in 1886.  This heat wave is currently leading to hundreds if not thousands of deaths, and if the monsoon rains do not come in mid-June, many more people will die from drought:

http://mashable.com/2016/05/19/india-hottest-temperature-record/#Z9noRb4E8Gqw

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data, and attached plot, issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -8.0:

20160420,20160519,-8.0

[AbruptSLR]

The APs lead story for May 20 2016, was the continuing crippling drought in India, where 60% of population works in agriculture and less than half the farmland is irrigated.  If for some reason the monsoons do not start on time by mid-June, we could see a human disaster in the making:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/f906a3717f1c4fae883593fc7f46babe/crippling-drought-central-india-leaves-millions-brink

Extract: "Monsoon showers, which normally run from June to September, are crucial in a country where 60 percent of the population works in agriculture and less than half the farmland is irrigated."

See also:
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/20/wet-bulb-near-35-c-heatwave-mass-casualties-strike-india-amidst-never-before-seen-high-temperatures/

[Sigmetnow]

Mark McCarthy:  If we switch to la nina I wonder how many past el ninos it will be warmer than.
https://twitter.com/markpmcc/status/734049125231169536

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -5.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the linked Wikipedia article, most Pacific tropical cyclones develop between May and October.  Therefore, it will be interesting to see whether any Western Pacific tropical cyclones/typhoons generate WWB activity in June to push eastward the thin warm surface layer shown in the attached TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom issued May 22 2016:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Pacific_typhoon_season

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data and the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.5:

20160422,20160521,-4.5

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following weekly NOAA data for the week centered on May 18 2016, the recent high trade winds shown in the first image of the UatA 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from May 23 to 30 2016, has indeed taken the weekly Nino 3.4 into the neutral range at Nino 3.4 = 0.2.  However, note that the first image also indicates that period of high trade winds is now over.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 20APR2016     24.7-0.6     28.0 0.6     28.9 1.1     29.4 0.8
 27APR2016     24.7-0.3     27.7 0.4     28.7 0.8     29.5 0.9
 04MAY2016     25.1 0.4     27.6 0.4     28.6 0.8     29.5 0.8
 11MAY2016     24.9 0.5     27.6 0.4     28.4 0.6     29.4 0.6
 18MAY2016     24.3 0.2     26.9-0.1     28.1 0.2     29.4 0.6

The second and third images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 22 2016, with the second image showing that the weekly Nino 3.4 is now +0.25; and the third image showing that the IOD is now neutral but negative.

The fourth image shows the NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued May 23 2016, showing that this value is still slowly becoming more negative.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 22 2016, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Showing that on a weekly basis (but not on an official basis, and the Nino 4 index is still in the El Nino range) we are now essentially in a ENSO neutral condition.

[AbruptSLR]

The first two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac Evolution, with the first image showing the SSTA, and the second showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom.  These images support that idea that we are transitioning to neutral conditions.

The third NOAA image as issued today shows the corrected CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast indicating that on a weekly basis we may not transition into weak La Nina conditions until August (if then) and that on an ONI basis it is still uncertain whether 2016 will develop official La Nina conditions.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -2.6:

[Sleepy]

Regarding the weekly NOAA data. Trying to determine a La Nina, the Nino4 region is the key for shifting deep convection patterns westwards, and it's still at +0.6°C.

[Sleepy]

Quoting a part of the ENSO wrap-up from BoM today.

The tropical Pacific Ocean has returned to a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have cooled to neutral levels over the past fortnight, supported by much cooler-than-average waters beneath the surface. In the atmosphere, indicators such as the trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and the Southern Oscillation Index have also returned to neutral levels. Outlooks suggest little chance of returning to El Niño levels, in which case mid-May will mark the end of the 2015–16 El Niño. 

International climate models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with six of eight models suggesting La Niña is likely to form during the austral winter (June–August). However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios.

Changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016 is around 50%, meaning the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH.

Also adding their model run from the 22:nd.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data and attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -2.2:

20160425,20160524,-2.2

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -0.5

[AbruptSLR]

Regarding the weekly NOAA data. Trying to determine a La Nina, the Nino4 region is the key for shifting deep convection patterns westwards, and it's still at +0.6°C.

The attached TAO 5-day Eq Pac Subsurface Temp and Temp Anom profiles thru May 26 2016, reaffirms Sleepy's point that the Nino 4 surface temps are remaining stable.

[Lord M Vader]

FWIW, seems like the trades are going to be more normal for the next week or so in the Eastern Pacific and maybe also later in the western Pacific too by U Albany:

Best, LMV

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data and the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up into the positive range and is now +0.6:

20160427,20160526,0.6

[Sleepy]

The SOI 90-day average is now also increasing.

CDAS presented by Levi Cowan. In the order I like to look at them right now.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data, and attached image, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.7:

20160428,20160527,0.7

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average has drifted up to +0.9

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.9:

[Sigmetnow]

If you've just joined us, here's an explainer on the meaning of SOI, courtesy of NOAA. 

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a standardized index based on the observed sea level pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The SOI is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niña episodes. In general, smoothed time series of the SOI correspond very well with changes in ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative (positive) SOI values coincide with abnormally warm (cold) ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño (La Niña) episodes. The methodology used to calculate SOI is available below. More information can be found at the Climate Prediction Center SOI page.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/soi/

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following NOAA data through the middle of the week for May 25 2016, the Nino 3.4 index has dropped down to -0.1C.  I note that at this critical time in the Arctic that if the Nino 3.4 drops below -0.5C that this could accelerate the advection of warm atmospheric winds from the south into the Arctic Basin, which (if it were to occur) could accelerate Arctic Amplification this summer:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 13APR2016     25.6 0.1     28.6 1.2     29.1 1.3     29.3 0.8
 20APR2016     24.7-0.6     28.0 0.6     28.9 1.1     29.4 0.8
 27APR2016     24.7-0.3     27.7 0.4     28.7 0.8     29.5 0.9
 04MAY2016     25.1 0.4     27.6 0.4     28.6 0.8     29.5 0.8
 11MAY2016     24.9 0.5     27.6 0.4     28.4 0.6     29.4 0.6
 18MAY2016     24.3 0.2     26.9-0.1     28.1 0.2     29.4 0.6
 25MAY2016     24.0 0.2     26.6-0.3     27.7-0.1     29.4 0.6

Separately, the first two images were issued on May 30 2016, by NOAA for the Eq Pac for the SSTA, and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, Evolutions, respectively.  These indicate that we are in a period of transition.

The last two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 29 2016, with the third image showing the Nino 3.4 and the fourth showing the IOD.  Again, both plots show that we are in a period of transition.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 29 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively.  These plots show that the Eastern Tropical Pacific is transitioning earlier than the Western Tropical Pacific, as indicated by the fact that the Nino 4 index remains relatively high at +0.57C (which is close to NOAA's value of +0.6C).

[Lord M Vader]

ASLR & Co latest analysis from Ventrice/U Albany indicates a possible WWB developing around 120^oW. In addition, the trades seems to be fairly normal or even weak positive in most of the Pacific basin with start from June 2. This WWB would if materialized be just right over the cold pool water.



Best, LMV

[AbruptSLR]

ASLR & Co latest analysis from Ventrice/U Albany indicates a possible WWB developing around 120^oW. In addition, the trades seems to be fairly normal or even weak positive in most of the Pacific basin with start from June 2. This WWB would if materialized be just right over the cold pool water.
Best, LMV

LMV,
First, I provide the attached TAO Eq Pac 5-day Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued May 31 2016; which can be compared with the situation showing in Reply #672 for the same profiles issued May 26 2016.  Comparing this two plots it can be observed that while the deep cool water pool has not changed very much the thin warm layer in the Nino 4 region has become more robust.  Thus while it is probable that the June 2 WWB near 120^oW, that you point to, may cause some upwelling of the deep cold water pool, it is most likely that any such upwelling of cold water will primarily impact the Nino 1, 2 & 3 regions with less impact on the Nino 3.4 region and almost no impact on the newly robust Nino 4 region.

While it is most likely that we are headed for a weak La Nina, an official-NOAA-ONI La Nina requires eight months with the Nino 3.4 below -0.5C; while the linked NOAA CFSv2 uncorrected Nino 3.4 forecast has the Nino 3.4 falling below -0.5C in mid-June and apparently headed above -0.5C by mid-January 2017; which means that officially we me be headed for a negative but neutral ENSO condition.  However, as a worse case scenario, I noted in the IJIS thread that if the Nino 3.4 falls below -0.5C by mid-June this should theoretically promote the advection of warm southerly winds northward into the Arctic Basin beginning in early to mid-June; which would promote sea ice extent loss; and then if WWB west of 180o were to occur by late July or August, then the warm surface layer in the Nino 4 region could move the Nino 3.4 back into the positive range; which could cause GMST departures to remain very high in 2016, leading to both high Arctic Amplification and high global warming.  We will all know in a few months whether such a worse case scenario actually develops.

Best,
ASLR

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.8:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +2.8:

20160502,20160531,2.8

[AbruptSLR]

The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued on June 2 2016, showing that the cool subsurface waters are beginning to upwell in the Nino 3 range.

The second image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from June 2 to 9 2016; indicating that westerly wind anomalies should promote further upwelling of cool subsurface waters in the Nino 3, and the eastern portions of the Nino 3.4, regions while working to sustain the warm surface layer in the western portions of the Nino 3.4, and in the Nino 4, regions.

Such conditions promote both the likelihood of accelerating Arctic Amplification and for weak La Nina like conditions through at least the early summer of 2016.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.0:

20160503,20160601,3.0

[Sleepy]

Adding the 4-month sequence of vertical temperature anomaly sections at the equator, Pacific for June 2016 by BoM. Ananlysis from Jun 2. Indicating a diminishing cold pool.

[AbruptSLR]

Adding the 4-month sequence of vertical temperature anomaly sections at the equator, Pacific for June 2016 by BoM. Ananlysis from Jun 2. Indicating a diminishing cold pool.

While it is an excellent point that the deep cold pool has been diminishing for months, your images also so that the warm surface layer has also been diminishing (as supported by the first attached image of the Tropical Tidbit's daily Nino 3.4 index issued June 3 2016, which is now negative); and per the second attached image of NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom (issued June 3 2016) the impact of the loss of the warm surface layer has been greater on net Upper Ocean Heat than the loss of the deeper cold pool; while now we may have finally reached a trough in the Upper Ocean Heat Anom.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average has drifted up to +3.1:

20160504,20160602,3.1

[Sleepy]

Adding the 4-month sequence of vertical temperature anomaly sections at the equator, Pacific for June 2016 by BoM. Ananlysis from Jun 2. Indicating a diminishing cold pool.

While it is an excellent point that the deep cold pool has been diminishing for months, your images also so that the warm surface layer has also been diminishing (as supported by the first attached image of the Tropical Tidbit's daily Nino 3.4 index issued June 3 2016, which is now negative); and per the second attached image of NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom (issued June 3 2016) the impact of the loss of the warm surface layer has been greater on net Upper Ocean Heat than the loss of the deeper cold pool; while now we may have finally reached a trough in the Upper Ocean Heat Anom.

Yes, and what I'm thinking about is how large that trough really is since the OISST values that the models are fed with are interpolated. I should have pointed out that my comment was a follow up to my Reply #650. Not only trying to keep a comparison to 98 in mind but also comparing the June analysis by BoM to their previous from May. Hopefully better displayed in the attached picture.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +2.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +1.7:

[AbruptSLR]

First, per the follow weekly NOAA values, the Nino 3.4 value for the week centered on June 1 2016 drifted down to -0.2:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 18MAY2016     24.3 0.2     26.9-0.1     28.1 0.2     29.4 0.6
 25MAY2016     24.0 0.2     26.6-0.3     27.7-0.1     29.4 0.6
 01JUN2016     23.4 0.0     26.4-0.3     27.6-0.2     29.3 0.5

The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending June 5 2016, showing that the Nino 3.4 is still positive while the IOD has become more negative, respectively.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac Evolutions for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending June 5 2016 showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.

[AbruptSLR]

The first image issued by NOAA today shows that the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom is now increasing (becoming less negative).

The second image issued today by TAO shows the Eq Pac Subsurface 5-day Temp & Temp Anom profiles, showing the zone where the cool deep water is slowly upwelling and the zones where the warm surface water is becoming stronger.

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from June 6 to 13 2016, indicating that the forecasted WWB near 120W is strengthening.

The fourth images shows that the MAM ONI is 1.1C.

[Steven]

Latest NMME forecast for the Niño 3.4 index:


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/plume.html


Below is an animation of the NMME forecast (ensemble mean) for the next months.  The first frame of the animation is for July 2016 and the last frame is for January 2017:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data, and attached image, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +0.3:

20160507,20160605,0.3

[Sleepy]

Shifting El Niño inhibits summer Arctic warming and Arctic sea-ice melting over the Canada Basin.
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160602/ncomms11721/full/ncomms11721.html

Arctic climate changes include not only changes in trends and mean states but also strong interannual variations in various fields. Although it is known that tropical-extratropical teleconnection is sensitive to changes in flavours of El Niño, whether Arctic climate variability is linked to El Niño, in particular on interannual timescale, remains unclear. Here we demonstrate for the first time a long-range linkage between central Pacific (CP) El Niño and summer Arctic climate. Observations show that the CP warming related to CP El Niño events deepens the tropospheric Arctic polar vortex and strengthens the circumpolar westerly wind, thereby contributing to inhibiting summer Arctic warming and sea-ice melting. Atmospheric model experiments can generally capture the observed responses of Arctic circulation and robust surface cooling to CP El Niño forcing. We suggest that identification of the equator-Arctic teleconnection, via the ‘atmospheric bridge’, can potentially contribute to improving the skill of predicting Arctic climate.

Also attaching fig 4: Case verifications in JJA of 2014 and 2015.
Original size here: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160602/ncomms11721/fig_tab/ncomms11721_F4.html