Isn't 1.5 degrees the point where permafrost degrades suddenly.
This is quite frightening given that we can't tell where the temperature may go now and it makes me wonder if this pulse of heat will be the one that sets off the clathrate gun which would turn earth into a hothouse, eliminating all life.
While do agree that such upward pulses of the GMST can activate some limited nonlinear positive feedback mechanism, a full fledged clathrate gun scenario would require a lot more anthropogenic forcing than is currently in the system.
The linked Nick Stokes article & attached plot shows how these monthly GMST values fluctuate with the seasons, and furthermore, the currently degrading El Nino should temporarily reduce the increase of the monthly GMST over the next several months
http://moyhu.blogspot.com/2016/03/surface-temp-up-0175-satellite-temp.htmlExtract: "The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index rose from 0.665°C in January to 0.84°C in February, continuing to set records. Similar rises are likely in the main surface indices. The base period for that index is 1994-2013, but reset to the 1951-80 period used by GISS, it would be 1.436°C (see the linked table, bottom left). Currently GISS has been running about 0.1°C cooler than NCEP/NCAR, on the same base. Here is the plot of the last year or so, daily:
A huge spike in recent days, again breaking records. The warmth was in Arctic, Canada/Alaska, East US, a large swathe of Central Asia, E Siberia, and still the ENSO Pacific region. Cool in Mid and W USA, and mixed in Antarctica."